DAILY OUTLOOKalphagoldfutures.com/pdfresearch/365-Daily Outlook AGF 29 Oktober 2018.pdfU.S. midterm congressional elections. "Once the elections and earnings are out of the way we'll

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 1

Research Department 29 October 2018

DAILY OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS |

CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL MARKETS Stock markets around the world tumbled on Friday while U.S. Treasury prices rose along

with demand for safer bets as better-than-expected U.S. economic data did little to ease anxiety over disappointing corporate profits and trade wars.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

China is likely to use its vast currency reserves to stop any precipitous fall through the psychologically important level of 7 yuan per dollar as it could risk triggering speculation and heavy capital outflows, policy insiders said.

Britain's budget announcement on Monday and a "Super Thursday" at the Bank of England would normally be key moments for the world's fifth-biggest economy, but this time they are likely to be overshadowed by the drama of Brexit.

Euro zone finance ministers will discuss Italy's 2019 draft budget at their next meeting, on Nov. 5, despite Italian requests to postpone the talks, a European Union official told Reuters on Friday.

The U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter as a tariff-related drop in soybean exports was partially offset by the strongest consumer spending in nearly four years, keeping growth on track to hit the Trump administration's 3 percent target this year.

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GLOBAL MARKETS U.S. & Global Markets – Stock markets around the world tumbled on Friday while U.S. Treasury prices rose along with demand for safer bets as better-than-expected U.S. economic data did little to ease anxiety over disappointing corporate profits and trade wars. Wall Street closed above its session lows, but earnings reports from Amazon.com and Alphabet, issued late Thursday, rekindled a rush to dump technology and other growth sectors. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 1.19 percent. The global index went 13.7 percent below its Jan. 26 record close and clocked its fifth straight week of consecutive losses for the first time since May 2013. With equities whip-sawing each day in reaction to the last big earnings beat or miss, investors braced for more volatility through the remainder of the U.S. earnings season and ahead of the Nov. 6 U.S. midterm congressional elections. "Once the elections and earnings are out of the way we'll have a calmer market but not necessarily a big move up," said Ernesto Ramos, portfolio manager for BMO Global Asset Management in Chicago. "Investors are anxious about 2019 earnings. They know 2018 is going to be phenomenal." he said. "There's been a lot of panic selling. One of the things you don't want to do is buy or sell based on emotion ... The volatility is incredible." The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 296.24 points, or 1.19 percent, to 24,688.31, the S&P 500 lost 46.88 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,658.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 151.12 points, or 2.07 percent, to 7,167.21. There was some support from data that showed third-quarter U.S. economic growth slowing less than expected as a tariff-related drop in soybean exports was partially offset by the strongest consumer spending in nearly four years. But while U.S. Treasury yields initially rose after the data, stock market volatility caused them to reverse course and fall to a three-week low. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 15/32 in price to yield 3.0793 percent, from 3.136 percent late on Thursday. The U.S. dollar slid alongside stocks after rising to a two-month high in morning trade after the GDP data. The dollar index fell 0.35 percent, with the euro up 0.28 percent to $1.1406. Doubt grew about whether the UK and the European Union can clinch a Brexit deal. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported on Friday that Brexit talks were on hold because Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet was not close enough to agreement on how to proceed. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.52 percent versus the greenback at 111.83 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2834, up 0.15 percent on the day. European and Asian stocks had led the way lower. The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.77 percent and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped one percent, hitting its lowest level since February 2017. Bear markets - a price drop of 20 percent or more from recent peaks - have increased across indexes and individual stocks since the start of this year. Oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations that sanctions on Iran would tighten global supplies, but futures posted a weekly

drop as a slump in stock markets and concerns about trade wars clouded the fuel demand outlook. U.S. crude settled at $67.59 per barrel, up 0.4 percent, and Brent settled up 1 percent to $77.62 on the day. Spot gold added 0.2 percent to $1,233.95 an ounce. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

GLOBAL ECONOMIES China - China is likely to use its vast currency reserves to stop any precipitous fall through the psychologically important level of 7 yuan per dollar as it could risk triggering speculation and heavy capital outflows, policy insiders said. On Friday, the yuan yuan hit a fresh 22-month low of 6.9647 against the dollar, and traders expected that the tightly managed, partially convertible currency would soon be testing 7 per dollar, a level unseen since the global financial crisis a decade ago. The yuan has lost over 6 percent versus the dollar so far this year, partly reflecting its slowing economy and pressure on exports due to an ongoing tariff war with the United States. Two sources involved in internal policy discussions, but who are not the final decision-makers, said that a defence of the yuan at 7 per dollar would be mounted to show investors that the authorities wouldn't allow a runaway market. "If the yuan falls through 7, there could be a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate", said one policy insider. "In order to avoid such a passive situation, the authorities are likely to step in the market to stabilise the yuan." The second source was certain the central bank would make a stand, rather than allow any sudden break through a psychologically important level to feed pessimism among investors. "The central bank will intervene - intervene directly or indirectly. It's necessary. The central bank has many policy tools. We cannot let the yuan fall past 7, as it would have a psychological impact on people," the second source said. Beijing's priority now is to ward off a sharper slowdown in the economy, which grew 6.5 percent in the third-quarter, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis, several sources said. The central bank, which has cut reserve requirements for lenders four times this year, is expected to ease monetary policy further, while on the fiscal side the government has pledged more tax cuts next year to support growth. The People's Bank of China will probably loosen monetary policy further and let the yuan lose more ground to bolster sagging economic growth, but policymakers will be on guard against spooking markets as the exchange rate nears 7 per dollar, a third source said. "We need to loosen monetary policy and should allow the yuan to depreciate to help expand exports, otherwise it will be more difficult," the source said. "But they (the authorities) will pay special attention to the psychological effect of breaking the 7 per dollar level." The PBOC did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment, but Vice Governor Pan Gongsheng told a briefing earlier that healthy economic fundamentals and ample foreign currency reserves would help keep the yuan basically stable. Currency market participants are closely watching to see if China's foreign currency reserves fall below $3 trillion, having slipped to $3.087 trillion last month.

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES



Reserves fell $52.9 billion in the first nine months of 2018 - with 43 percent of the drawdown happening in September, but the scale of the decline is dwarfed by a record annual drop of $512.7 billion in 2015, showing the authorities have been far less interventionist. Pan said the central bank would adopt macro-prudential measures to stabilise market expectations, warning against speculators who seek to drive the yuan weaker. Earlier this month, authorities restricted outward investment by its residents earlier this month. Capital outflows have picked up as the yuan moves closer to the key 7 per dollar level. Net foreign exchanges sales by China's commercial banks rose to $17.6 billion in September, the highest in 15 months. So far this year, Chinese policymakers have been less interventionist on the yuan than they were in 2015, as a weaker currency helps cushion a slowing economy and take some of the sting out of higher U.S. tariffs, although Beijing has rejected talk that it's deliberately pushing down the yuan to spur exports. Pan reiterated that the PBOC rejected the use of competitive currency devaluation as an answer to the trade pressures arising from the tariff war.. U.K - Britain's budget announcement on Monday and a "Super Thursday" at the Bank of England would normally be key moments for the world's fifth-biggest economy, but this time they are likely to be overshadowed by the drama of Brexit. Finance minister Philip Hammond and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney have little option but to sit on the fence as they wait to see whether a no-deal exit from the European Union, which they warn would harm the economy, can be averted. Both men have other business they want to get on with. Hammond is under pressure from Prime Minister Theresa May to end a decade of austerity to see off a rise in popularity of the opposition Labour Party. At the BoE -- where an interest rate decision and economic forecasts are due to be announced on Thursday -- Carney and his fellow policymakers want to progress with their plan to raise borrowing costs gradually over the coming years. That would allow the British central bank to follow the lead of other central banks, especially in the United States and Canada, which are dismantling 10 years of massive stimulus. Expectations of another rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December are likely to grow if the monthly payrolls report on Nov. 2 shows further jobs growth and rising pay. In the euro zone, data on economic growth and inflation on Tuesday and Wednesday will show whether the recovery in the single currency area has kept pace. But in Britain, with Brexit just five months away, things are much less clear cut. BREXIT FOG There is no sign of a Brexit breakthrough with Brussels, in large part because May's Conservative Party is riven over how close Britain should remain to the European Union after it leaves the bloc. "The budget is likely to be something of a holding exercise until the Brexit fog clears and the MPC is likely to remain in a state of inertia until there is a bit more clarity on the state of the Brexit negotiations," Ruth Gregory, an economist with Capital Economics, a research firm, said. When he stands up in parliament on Monday afternoon, Hammond is expected to use his high-profile budget speech to try to cool the

Conservative rebels by dangling the prospect of higher spending in the future, as long as a Brexit deal is done. Britain's economy has slowed since the 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU. But it has not suffered as badly as many forecasters expected, giving Hammond some fiscal wiggle room to fund higher health spending already promised by May. Hammond might get further help if Britain's budget forecasters scale back their estimates of future deficits, as they have suggested they will. But his ability to ramp up spending in other areas depends most on avoiding a new shock to the economy. A no-deal Brexit would slash economic growth to just 0.3 percent a year in 2019 and 2020 compared with 1.9 and 1.6 percent if there is a deal, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated on Friday. Britain's budget deficit would stop falling and would rise under a no-deal scenario, according to its forecasts. Looking further ahead, Hammond has suggested he will need to raise taxes to help fund higher public spending. SIGNS OF PAY "NEW DAWN" But the prospect of getting controversial measures passed in parliament, where the Conservatives have no outright majority, is probably too daunting at a time of heightened Brexit tensions. For the BoE, the Brexit stakes are high too. It has begun raising interest rates from their crisis-era levels and its chief economist has said he sees signs of a "new dawn" for British workers' pay, long the missing link in the country's recovery from the financial crisis. But most economists think it will wait until May to raise rates again, assuming Britain leaves the EU with a deal. "In any other situation, we suspect the Bank of England would be looking to increase interest rates pretty soon," ING economists said in a note to clients on Friday. "But inevitably, Brexit remains policymakers' number one consideration, and given that there may still be some time before we know for sure whether a deal will be in place before the UK formally leaves the EU, there is a risk growth slows as businesses and consumers grow more cautious." Euro Zone – Euro zone finance ministers will discuss Italy's 2019 draft budget at their next meeting, on Nov. 5, despite Italian requests to postpone the talks, a European Union official told Reuters on Friday. Yields on Italy's bonds have spiked since September, when the Italian eurosceptic government disclosed details of a free-spending budget that would breach EU fiscal rules and could increase the country's large debt. EU disapproval of Italy's plans has contributed to market jitters, and the Italian government wants to avoid the spotlight at the next monthly meeting of euro zone finance ministers. But delegates from other euro zone states agreed at a meeting this week to hold the talks anyway, the official said, in a new sign of the isolation of Italy's government in the 19-country region. The discussion will follow the EU Commission's unprecedented decision this week to reject the Italian budget on the grounds that it vastly deviated from previously agreed fiscal targets. This decision was backed by euro zone officials this week at a meeting in Brussels, a second EU official said. At the Nov. 5 meeting, finance ministers are expected to endorse the envoys' position on the Italian budget, although it is unclear



now whether there will be a joint statement at the end of the meeting on the issue, the second official said. Under EU rules, after the Commission's rejection Italy is required to send a revised version of its draft budget to Brussels by Nov. 13. To fully meet EU requirements, Italy would have to cut by 0.6 percent its structural deficit which excludes one-off expenditures. Instead, it plans a 0.8 percent increase. The higher deficit would help finance a lower retirement age, welfare handouts and tax cuts to meet election pledges. But EU officials fear it could also increase the country's public debt, which at a ratio of more than 130 percent of the gross domestic product is the euro zone's second largest after Greece. U.S. - The U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter as a tariff-related drop in soybean exports was partially offset by the strongest consumer spending in nearly four years, keeping growth on track to hit the Trump administration's 3 percent target this year. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.5 percent annualized rate also supported by a surge in inventory investment and solid government spending, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth. While that was a slowdown from a 4.2 percent pace in the second quarter, it still exceeded the economy's growth potential, which economists put at about 2 percent. But there were red flags to the economic expansion that is now in its ninth year and the second longest on record. Business spending stalled and residential investment declined for a third straight quarter, signs that the boost from a $1.5 trillion tax cut was fading and higher interest rates were hurting the housing market. "There will come a day of reckoning for the economy after the tax cut monies are all gone, but for today Washington really has something to crow about," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP expanding at a 3.3 percent pace in the third quarter. The fiscal stimulus is part of measures adopted by President Donald Trump's administration to boost annual growth to 3 percent on a sustainable basis. Yet the government is also locked in a bitter trade war with China as well as trade disputes with other trade partners and the last quarter's slowdown mostly reflected the impact of Beijing's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, including soybeans. Farmers front-loaded shipments to China before the tariffs took effect in early July, boosting second-quarter growth. Since then, soybean exports have declined every month, increasing the trade deficit. There were also decreases in exports of petroleum and nonautomative capital goods. Strong domestic demand, however, sucked in imports of consumer goods and motor vehicles. The widening trade gap chopped off 1.78 percentage points from GDP growth in the third quarter. That was the most since the second quarter of 1985 and reversed the 1.22 percentage points contribution in the April-June period. The rebound in imports also reflected a rush by businesses to stockpile before U.S. import duties, mostly on Chinese goods, came into effect late in the third quarter.

Imports subtract from GDP growth. But some of the imports likely ended up in warehouses, adding to the stockpile of inventory, which contributed to GDP. Inventories increased at a $76.3 billion rate after declining at a $36.8 billion pace in the second quarter. As a result, inventory investment added 2.07 percentage points to GDP growth, the biggest contribution since the first quarter of 2015, after slicing off 1.1 percentage points from output in the second quarter. ROBUST CONSUMER SPENDING "Trade policy may also have driven the big swings in net exports and inventories," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. "This dynamic could continue on into the fourth quarter." Excluding the effects of trade and inventories, GDP grew at a 3.1 percent rate in the third quarter compared to a 4.0 percent pace in April-June. The dollar briefly rose to a two-month high against a basket of currencies on the data. Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower after Amazon gave a below par holiday-season sales forecast and Google-parent Alphabet reported quarterly revenue that missed analysts' estimates. U.S. Treasury yields fell. Solid third-quarter growth is expected to keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again in December, despite a recent tightening in financial market conditions brought about by a stock market sell-off and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed raised rates in September for the third time this year and removed a reference to monetary policy remaining "accommodative" from its policy statement. The GDP report showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 1.6 percent rate in the third quarter. The core PCE price index rose at a 2.1 percent pace in the April-June period. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 4.0 percent rate in the third quarter. That was the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014 and followed a 3.8 percent pace of increase in the second quarter. Momentum is, however, expected to slow as wage growth remains gradual despite the unemployment rate being at a near 49-year low of 3.7 percent. In addition, the stock market turmoil is seen reducing household wealth. Business spending on equipment increased at a 0.4 percent rate, the slowest in two years, after rising at a 4.6 percent pace in the second quarter. Businesses are struggling to find workers and the import tariffs are increasing manufacturing costs for companies, such as Caterpillar Inc, 3M Co and Ford Motor Co. "It appears most business leaders have become somewhat cautious about the future and are holding off committing to major investment plans," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. The housing market contracted at its steepest pace in more than a year in the third quarter, also dimming the economy's outlook. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)



ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/22-Oct-18 N/A KR Exports 20 Days YoY Oct -- -- 21.6% N/A KR Imports 20 Days YoY Oct -- -- 14.0%

11:30 JP All Industry Activity Index MoM Aug 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 16:00 EZ Govt Debt/GDP Ratio 2017 86.8% -- 86.7% 89.1%

19:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.27 19:30 CA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug -0.1% -0.2% 1.5% 1.1%

Tue/23-Oct-18 04:00 KR PPI YoY Sep -- -- 3.0% 05:35 AU Remarks by RBA's Debelle in Sydney

10:00 AU RBA's Bullock speaks on panel in Sydney 11:30 AU RBA's Debelle speaks on panel in Sydney 13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Sep F 2.9% -- 2.8%

13:00 DE PPI MoM Sep 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13:00 DE PPI YoY Sep 3.2% 3.0% 3.1%

15:30 HK CPI Composite YoY Sep -- -- 2.3% 17:00 GB CBI Business Optimism Oct -16 -4 -3 17:00 GB CBI Trends Selling Prices Oct 10 15 13

17:00 GB CBI Trends Total Orders Oct -6 2 -1 17:30 GB BOE Chief Economist Haldane Speaks in Paris

20:30 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks at Early Childhood Development Event

21:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Oct A -2.7 -3.2 -2.9

21:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct 15 24 29 22:20 GB Carney Speaks at a Conference in Toronto

Wed/24-Oct-18 06:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P 53.1 52.6 52.5 07:00 AU Skilled Vacancies MoM Sep -0.6% -- 0.6% -0.2%

12:00 JP Coincident Index Aug F 116.8 -- 117.5 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Aug F 104.5 -- 104.4 14:30 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Oct P 53.6 55.5 55.9

14:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Oct P 52.7 54.8 55 14:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct P 52.3 53.4 53.7 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P 52.7 53.9 54.1

15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P 52.1 53 53.2 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P 53.3 54.5 54.7

15:30 GB UK Finance Loans for Housing Sep 38505 39000 39402 39241 20:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 20:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Oct P 54.8 -- 53.9

20:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P 55.9 55.3 55.6 20:45 US Markit US Services PMI Oct P 54.7 54 53.5 21:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision Oct-24 1.75% 1.75% 1.5%

21:00 US New Home Sales Sep 553k 625k 629k 585k 21:00 US New Home Sales MoM Sep -5.5% -0.6% 3.5% -3.0%

21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Oct-19 1371k -- 1776k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Oct-19 6346k 3700k 6490k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Oct-19 -2262k -2000k -827k

21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Oct-19 -4826k -1749k -2016k

Thu/25-Oct-18 00:00 US Atlanta Fed's Bostic Speaks at Energy Summit in Baton Rouge

00:10 US Fed's Mester Speaks at Forecasters Club in New York

01:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 04:45 NZ Exports NZD Sep 4.33b 4.17b 4.05b

04:45 NZ Imports NZD Sep 5.89b 5.58b 5.54b 04:45 NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD NZD Sep -5188m -5015m -4814m 04:45 NZ Trade Balance NZD Sep -1560m -1365m -1484m

06:00 KR GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 06:00 KR GDP YoY 3Q P 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.2% 06:50 JP PPI Services YoY Sep 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%

13:00 DE GfK Consumer Confidence Nov 10.6 10.5 10.6 15:00 DE IFO Business Climate Oct 102.8 103.1 103.7

15:00 DE IFO Current Assessment Oct 105.9 106 106.4 106.6 15:00 DE IFO Expectations Oct 99.8 100.4 101 100.9 15:30 HK Exports YoY Sep 4.5% -- 13.1%

15:30 HK Imports YoY Sep 4.8% -- 16.4% 15:30 HK Trade Balance HKD Sep H$-47.7b H$-50.2b H$-52.1b 17:00 CA CFIB Business Barometer Oct 60.5 -- 61.4



18:45 EZ ECB Deposit Facility Rate Oct-25 -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% 18:45 EZ ECB Main Refinancing Rate Oct-25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

18:45 EZ ECB Marginal Lending Facility Oct-25 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 19:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$76.0b -$75.1b -$75.8b

19:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.1% 0.5% -0.9% -0.2% 19:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Sep P 0.0% 0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 19:30 US Continuing Claims Oct-13 1636k 1644k 1641k

19:30 US Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.8% -1.5% 4.4% 4.6% 19:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Sep P 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-20 215k 215k 210k

19:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Sep 0.1% -- 0.7% 0.6% 19:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Sep P 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9%

21:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Sep 0.5% 0.0% -1.8% -1.9% 21:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Sep -3.4% -2.6% -2.5% -2.6% 22:00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct 8 14 13

Fri/26-Oct-18 04:00 KR Consumer Confidence Oct 100 99.5 102

06:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Oct 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 06:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY Oct 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

06:30 JP Tokyo CPI YoY Oct 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 06:30 JP Tokyo Oct CPI 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 08:00 US Fed's Mester Speaks to Money Marketeers in New York

N/A DE Germany Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P N/A GB United Kingdom Sovereign Debt to be rated by Fitch N/A GB United Kingdom Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P

15:00 EZ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 19:30 US Core PCE QoQ 3Q A 1.6% 1.6% 2.1%

19:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q A 3.5% 3.3% 4.2% 19:30 US GDP Price Index 3Q A 1.7% 2.1% 3.0% 19:30 US Personal Consumption 3Q A 4.0% 3.3% 3.8%

21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Oct F 2.9% -- 2.8% 21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Oct F 2.4% -- 2.3% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Oct F 113.1 -- 114.4

21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Oct F 89.3 -- 89.1 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F 98.6 99 99

Sat/27-Oct-18 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct-26 875 875 873

08:30 CN Industrial Profits YoY Sep -- 9.2% 27-Oct - 02-Nov N/A DE Retail Sales MoM Sep -- -0.1% 27-Oct - 02-Nov N/A DE Retail Sales YoY Sep -- 1.6%

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

27-Oct - 02-Nov N/A DE Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.5% -0.1% 27-Oct - 02-Nov N/A DE Retail Sales YoY Sep 0.9% 1.6%

28-Oct - 03-Nov N/A GB Nationwide House PX MoM Oct 0.2% 0.3% 28-Oct - 03-Nov N/A GB Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Oct 2.0% 2.0%

Mon/29-Oct-18 06:50 JP Retail Sales MoM Sep -- 0.9% 06:50 JP Retail Trade YoY Sep -- 2.7%

16:30 GB Mortgage Approvals Sep -- 66.4k 16:30 GB Net Consumer Credit Sep -- 1.1b

16:30 GB Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Sep -- 2.9b 18:00 GB CBI Retailing Reported Sales Oct -- 23 18:00 GB CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales Oct -- 26

19:30 US PCE Core MoM Sep 0.1% 0.0% 19:30 US PCE Core YoY Sep 2.0% 2.0% 19:30 US PCE Deflator MoM Sep 0.1% 0.1%

19:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Sep -- 2.2% 19:30 US Personal Income Sep 0.4% 0.3%

19:30 US Personal Spending Sep 0.4% 0.3% 19:30 US Real Personal Spending Sep -- 0.2%

20:45 US Fed's Evans Speaks at Conference on Regional Competitiveness

21:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Oct 29 28.1

Tue/30-Oct-18 04:00 KR Business Survey Manufacturing Nov -- 78 04:00 KR Business Survey Non-Manufacturing Nov -- 77

06:30 JP Jobless Rate Sep -- 2.4% 06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Sep -- 1.63

07:30 AU Building Approvals MoM Sep -- -9.4%

07:30 AU Building Approvals YoY Sep -- -13.6% 09:10 AU RBA's Bullock gives speech in Sydney

15:00 CH KOF Leading Indicator Oct 100.8 102.2 15:55 DE Unemployment Change (000's) Oct -13k -23k



15:55 DE Unemployment Claims Rate SA Oct 5.1% 5.1% 17:00 EZ Business Climate Indicator Oct 1.18 1.21

17:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Oct F -2.7 -2.7 17:00 EZ Economic Confidence Oct 110.2 110.9

17:00 EZ GDP SA QoQ 3Q A 0.3% 0.4% 17:00 EZ GDP SA YoY 3Q A 1.8% 2.1% 17:00 EZ Industrial Confidence Oct 4 4.7

17:00 EZ Services Confidence Oct 14 14.6 20:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Oct P 0.0% 0.4% 20:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct P 2.3% 2.2%

20:00 DE CPI MoM Oct P 0.1% 0.4% 20:00 DE CPI YoY Oct P 2.3% 2.3%

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Aug 0.2% 0.09% 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Aug -- 213.76 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Aug -- 5.92%

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Aug -- 205.35 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Aug -- 6.0% 21:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Oct 136.8 138.4

21:00 US Conf. Board Expectations Oct -- 115.3 21:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Oct -- 173.1

Wed/31-Oct-18 06:00 KR Cyclical Leading Index Change Sep -- -0.4

06:00 KR Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -- 1.4% 06:00 KR Industrial Production YoY Sep -- 2.5% 06:50 JP Industrial Production MoM Sep P -- 0.2%

06:50 JP Industrial Production YoY Sep P -- 0.2% 07:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Oct -- 7.8

07:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Oct -- -38.3 07:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Oct -10 -9 07:01 GB Lloyds Business Barometer Oct -- 29

07:30 AU CPI QoQ 3Q -- 0.4% 07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean QoQ 3Q -- 0.5% 07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean YoY 3Q -- 1.9%

07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median QoQ 3Q -- 0.5% 07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median YoY 3Q -- 1.9%

07:30 AU CPI YoY 3Q -- 2.1% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit MoM Sep -- 0.5% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY Sep -- 4.5%

08:00 CN Composite PMI Oct -- 54.1 08:00 CN Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.9 50.8 08:00 CN Non-manufacturing PMI Oct -- 54.9

N/A JP BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target Oct-31 -- 0.0% N/A JP BOJ Outlook Report

N/A JP BOJ Policy Balance Rate Oct-31 -- -0.1% 12:00 JP Construction Orders YoY Sep -- 0.5% 12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Oct -- 43.4

12:00 JP Housing Starts YoY Sep -- 1.6% 16:00 CH Credit Suisse Survey Expectations Oct -- -30.8 17:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Oct A 1.1% 0.9%

17:00 EZ CPI Estimate YoY Oct 2.1% 2.1% 17:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Sep 8.0% 8.1%

19:15 US ADP Employment Change Oct 190k 230k 19:30 US Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.7% 0.6% 19:30 CA GDP MoM Aug -- 0.2%

19:30 CA GDP YoY Aug -- 2.4% 19:30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM Sep -- -0.5%

20:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Oct 60.3 60.4 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Oct-26 -- 1371k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Oct-26 -- 6346k

21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Oct-26 -- -2262k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Oct-26 -- -4826k

Thu/01-Nov-18 04:30 AU AiG Perf of Mfg Index Oct -- 59 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Oct F -- 54.3

06:00 AU CoreLogic House Px MoM Oct -- -0.6% 06:00 KR CPI Core YoY Oct -- 1.2%

06:00 KR CPI MoM Oct -- 0.7% 06:00 KR CPI YoY Oct -- 1.9% 07:00 KR Exports YoY Oct -- -8.2%

07:00 KR Imports YoY Oct -- -2.1% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Oct -- $9746m 07:30 AU Export Price Index QoQ 3Q -- 1.9%

07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F -- 53.1 07:30 KR Nikkei South Korea PMI Mfg Oct -- 51.3

07:30 AU Trade Balance Sep -- A$1604m



Source: Bloomberg-Reuters-Forexfactory-DailyFX-Tradingeconomics-FXStreet, Research: @LukmanLoeng, Setiawan, Rizal

08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct 50.2 50 01-Nov - 03-Nov N/A US IMF 19th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

01-Nov - 07-Nov N/A JP Official Reserve Assets Oct -- $1259.7b 12:30 AU Commodity Index AUD Oct -- 115.7

12:30 AU Commodity Index SDR YoY Oct -- 4.8% 12:30 AU Commodity Index SDR YoY Oct -- 4.8% 13:45 CH SECO Consumer Confidence Oct -- -7

15:15 CH CPI Core YoY Oct -- 0.4% 15:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized MoM Oct -- 0.0% 15:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct -- 1.1%

15:15 CH CPI MoM Oct 0.1% 0.1% 15:15 CH CPI YoY Oct 1.1% 1.0%

15:30 CH PMI Manufacturing Oct 59.5 59.7 15:30 HK Retail Sales Value YoY Sep -- 9.5%

15:30 HK Retail Sales Volume YoY Sep -- 8.1%

16:30 GB Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct 53.1 53.8 19:00 GB Bank of England Bank Rate Nov-01 0.75% 0.75% 19:00 GB Bank of England Inflation Report

19:00 GB BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 435b 435b 19:00 GB BOE Corporate Bond Target Nov 10b 10b

19:30 GB BOE's Carney speaks at press conference in London 19:30 US Continuing Claims Oct-20 -- -- 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-27 -- --

19:30 CA MLI Leading Indicator MoM Sep -- 0.1% 19:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 3Q P 1.8% 2.9%

19:30 US Unit Labor Costs 3Q P 1.4% -1.0% 20:30 CA Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Oct -- 54.8

20:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F -- 55.9

21:00 US Construction Spending MoM Sep 0.0% 0.1% 21:00 US ISM Employment Oct -- 58.8 21:00 US ISM Manufacturing Oct 59.5 59.8

21:00 US ISM New Orders Oct -- 61.8 21:00 US ISM Prices Paid Oct -- 66.9

Fri/02-Nov-18 04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Oct -- 117.6

04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Oct -- 0.0% 06:50 JP Monetary Base End of period Oct -- ¥505.0t 06:50 JP Monetary Base YoY Oct -- 5.9%

07:30 AU PPI QoQ 3Q -- 0.3% 07:30 AU PPI YoY 3Q -- 1.5% 07:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ 3Q -- 1.2%

07:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Sep -- 0.3% 15:15 CH Retail Sales Real YoY Sep -- 0.4%

15:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F -- 52.3 16:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F -- 52.1 16:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Oct 52.5 52.1

19:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM Oct 0.2% 0.3% 19:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Oct 3.1% 2.8% 19:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Oct 34.5 34.5

19:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls Oct 20k 18k 19:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 189k 134k

19:30 US Change in Private Payrolls Oct 180k 121k 19:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Oct -- -16.9 19:30 CA Hourly Earnings Permanent Empl YoY Oct -- 2.2%

19:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Oct -- 62.7% 19:30 CA Net Change in Employment Oct -- 63.3k

19:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Oct -- 80.2 19:30 CA Participation Rate Oct -- 65.4 19:30 US Trade Balance Sep -$52.0b -$53.2b

19:30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Oct -- -- 19:30 US Underemployment Rate Oct -- 7.5% 19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Oct -- 5.9%

19:30 US Unemployment Rate Oct 3.7% 3.7% 21:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep F -- --

21:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Sep F -- -- 21:00 US Durable Goods Orders Sep F -- -- 21:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Sep F -- --

21:00 US Factory Orders Sep -0.3% 2.3% 21:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans Sep -- 0.1%

Sat/03-Nov-18 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Nov-02 -- --



Japan's Nikkei posted their biggest weekly loss in more than eight months on growing worries over earnings of domestic firms, with camera maker Canon disappointing the market by lowering its annual profit forecast. The Nikkei share average on Friday fell 0.40 percent, taking the weekly loss of 5.7 percent as the index ended at 21,185, its lowest close since late March. "The Nikkei is at a crucial point. The Nikkei could sustainably break below the average purchase cost of speculators since November 2016, which has worked as a bullet-proof support since then," said Masanari Takada, cross asset strategist at Nomura Securities, noting that the level now was below 21,200. If that happens, "speculators could close their long positions further or can even go short," he said. The broader Topix shed 0.31 percent to 1,596 on Friday to also end the week 5.7 percent down, the second biggest fall this year after a 7.1 percent drop in early February. It marked the lowest close since September 2017. Canon Inc tumbled 5.6 percent to the lowest level since February 2017 after it cut its net profit forecast for the year ending December to 251 billion yen ($2.24 billion) from 280 billion yen, due to weak digital camera sales. "If more companies report conservative forecasts, the outlook for Japanese shares will be clouded," said Hikaru Sato, a senior technical analyst at Daiwa Securities. Canon's forecast revision came after a series of disappointing earnings from Japanese firms this week, raising worries the Sino-U.S. trade war may be starting to bite. Daiwa's Sato also said that the market is bracing for weaker U.S. shares indicated by falling U.S. futures after disappointing results on Thursday from tech giants Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com heightened concerns over world trade and economic growth. But major Japanese carmakers staged a rebound after Thursday's sell-off, shrugging off a report in the business daily Nikkei that the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal requires engines and six other components to be made in North America for cars to enjoy tariff-free access. Toyota Motor rose 2.1 percent, while Honda Motor added 1.7 percent and Nissan Motor gained 1.1 percent. But some midsize players, which the Nikkei said are likely to be affected the most, fared worse. Mazda Motor fell 1.7 percent. South Korea's KOSPI stock fell for the fourth consecutive session on Friday as gains on Wall Street failed to inspire investors in the Asian trading day, with worries about local earnings worsening. The main KOSPI index tumbled 1.75 percent, or 36.13 points, to end at 2,027.17, leading to a cumulative decline of 6.2 percent over the four sessions. On a weekly basis, the index fell 5.99 percent to mark the fourth straight weekly loss. "Earnings released so far were disappointing, except for chipmakers and some financial companies, and this is causing worries about the companies due to report their performance soon," said Rhoo Yong-seok, an analyst at KB Securities. On Thursday, the country's biggest automaker Hyundai Motor announced a near 70 percent drop in its third-quarter net profit, sending its stocks to almost nine-year lows.

On Friday, chemical shares fell sharply on concerns that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would demand from China for Korean exports. LG Chem and Lotte Chemical Corp fell 4.6 percent each. Foreigners were net sellers of 178 billion won ($171.80 million) worth of shares, while local institutions bought 131.9 billion won worth of shares. The junior KOSDAQ index ended 3.5 percent lower. The country's won was quoted at 1,141.9 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform at the end of the session, down 0.34 percent from the previous close at 1,138.0. On a weekly basis, the won weakened 0.86 percent against the dollar, marking the fourth straight session of depreciation. From the beginning of this month, it has dropped 2.9 percent. The dollar has risen 7.2 percent against the won this year. The won's high for the year is 1,053.55 per dollar on April 2 2018 and low is 1,146.26 on Oct. 11. In money and debt markets, December futures on three-year treasury bonds rose 0.07 points to 108.71. The Korean 3-month Certificate of Deposit benchmark rate was quoted at 1.7 percent, while the benchmark 3-year Korean treasury bond yielded 1.954 percent, lower than the previous day's 1.98 percent. Hong Kong's main Hang Seng and China's H-shares index closed down on Friday as Beijing's latest supportive measures for the stock market and economy failed to lift sentiment, leading indices to end the week on a soft tone. At the close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 276.83 points or 1.11 percent at 24,717.63. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index dropped 1.16 percent to 10,058.63. For the week, Hang Seng index finished down 3.3 pct, and H-shares index ended 1.6 pct lower. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 0.5 percent, while the IT sector slipped 3.13 percent, the financial sector fell 0.89 percent and property sector climbed 0.52 percent. The biggest loser on the Hang Seng was Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd, which ended down 11.11 percent, while the top gainer was Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd, which closed up 1.68 percent. Shares in Tencent dropped as much as 3.6 pct to their lowest close since May 2017, after the company implemented a compulsory real name-based registration system for players of its popular Honour of Kings game. China's main Shanghai Composite index closed down 0.19 percent at 2,603.80 points, while its blue-chip CSI300 index ended 0.65 percent weaker. Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was weaker by 0.91 percent, while Japan's Nikkei index closed down 0.4 percent. The yuan was quoted at 6.9497 per U.S. dollar, as of 0828 GMT, 0.01 percent weaker than the previous close of 6.9492. As of previous trading session, the Hang Seng index was down 16.46 percent this year, while China's H-share index slipped 13.1 percent. As of previous close, the Hang Seng has declined 10.05 percent this month. The three biggest H-shares percentage decliners were China Life Insurance Co Ltd, which ended down 6.67 percent, China Huarong Asset Management Co Ltd, which closed 3.6 percent lower and New China Life Insurance Co Ltd, which ended 3.6 percent weaker.

ASIAN STOCK INDEX



The top gainers among H-shares were China Vanke Co Ltd, which ended 1.94 percent higher, followed by CNOOC Ltd, which ended 1.67 percent firmer and Guangdong Investment Ltd, which closed up 0.88 percent. About 1.74 billion Hang Seng index shares were traded, roughly 99.7 percent of the market's 30-day moving average of 1.75 billion shares a day. The volume traded in the previous trading session was 2.36 billion.

At close, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 25.83 percent over the Hong Kong-listed H-shares. The price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng index was 9.68, as of last trading day, while dividend yield was 3.8 percent. So far this week, the market capitalisation of the Hang Seng index dropped 2.49 percent to HK$16.21 trillion. (Source:Reuters,Research:Elli)

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2018

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87

(29/Dec/89) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 33154.12

(26/Jan/2018) 26616.71

(26/Jan/2018) 2914.04

(29/Aug/2018) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07)

2017 HIGH 23439.15

(13/Nov/2017) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 30199.69

(22/Nov/2017) 24876.07

(18/Dec/2017) 2694.97

(18/Dec/2017) 3450.49490

(14/Nov/2017)

2018 HIGH 24270.62

(02/Oct/2018) 338.05

(29/Jan/2018) 33484.08

(29/Jan/2018) 26828.39

(03/Oct/2018) 2930.83

(20/Sep/2018) 3587.50890

(29/Jan/2018)

2018 LOW 20617.86

(23/Mar/2018) 262.69

(26/Oct/2018) 24717.63

(26/Oct/2018) 23360.29

(08/Feb/2018) 2532.69

(08/Feb/2018) 2486.41860

(18/Oct/2018)

2017 LOW 18224.68

(17/Apr/2017) 258.64

(02/Jan/2017) 21883.82

(03/Jan/2017) 19677.94

(19/Jan/2017) 2245.13

(03/Jan/2017) 3016.53050

(11/May/2017)

RECORD LOW 85.25

(06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61

(31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55) 132.93

(23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 26 Oktober 2018

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 24688.31 296.24/1.19% .N225 21184.60 84.13/0.40%

/.SPX 2658.69 46.88/1.73% .KS200 262.69 4.03/1.51%

/.IXIC 7167.212 151.124/2.07% .HSI 24717.63 276.83/1.11%

JPY= 111.89 0.49/0.44% /.SSEC 2598.84680 4.95270/0.19%

KRW= 1139.28 2.90/0.25% /CLc1 (Oil) 67.62 0.64/0.95/%



1YMZ8(Dow Jones Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 21 December 2018

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

26 Oct 24804 24885 24415 470 24697 24697 180 0.72 429436

25 Oct 24724 25079 24571 508 24831 24831 215 0.87 319277

24 Oct 25240 25338 24511 827 24722 24722 522 2.07 348875

23 Oct 25297 25310 24750 560 25246 25246 48 0.19 344614

22 Oct 25369 25566 25220 346 25308 25308 120 0.47 229955

19 Oct 25383 25596 25338 258 25435 25435 54 0.21 266017

18 Oct 25704 25726 25217 509 25398 25398 338 1.31 314590

WEEKLY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2018

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

25566 24415 26966 24415 26820 25764 26966 23088

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (03/Oct) (26/Oct) (21/Sep) (11/Sep) (03/Oct) (06/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

25566 High Oct 22,2018

25338 High Oct 24,2018

25079 High on 1-Hourly Chart


SUPPORT

24415 Low on 1-Hourly Chart


24026 Low Jul 02,2018

23978 Low Jun 28,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 24750

STOP LOSS 24900

TARGET

24500

24400



SSIamZ8 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 17 Dec 2018

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % VOLUME

26 Oct SSIpmZ8 21285 21400 20795 605 21200 21200 80 0.38 82508

26 Oct SSIamZ8 21485 21515 20965 550 21280 21280 80 0.37 95686

25 Oct SSIpmZ8 21375 21785 21315 470 21565 21565 205 0.96 59658

25 Oct SSIamZ8 21455 21515 21195 320 21360 21360 690 3.13 92614

24 Oct SSIpmZ8 22005 22095 21345 750 21465 21465 585 2.65 63592

24 Oct SSIamZ8 22150 22210 21885 325 22050 22050 125 0.57 78521

23 Oct SSIpmZ8 21945 22185 21640 545 22145 22145 220 1.00 72725

23 Oct SSIamZ8 22450 22465 21915 550 21925 21925 745 3.29 78676

22 Oct SSIpmZ8 22670 22710 22410 300 22470 --- 200 0.88 34961

22 Oct SSIamZ8 22390 22670 22265 405 22670 22670 150 0.66 49058



22710 20795 24480 20795 24290 22165 24480 20130

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (26/Oct) (28/Sep) (07/Sep) (01/Oct) (23/Mar)


RESISTANCE

22095 High Oct 24, 2018




SUPPORT



20615 Low Mar 28,2018

20350 Low Mar 27,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 21250

STOP LOSS 21400

TARGET 20950

20850



KSZ8 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 13 Dec 2018


CHANGE VOLUME

26 Oct 267.80 268.05 260.95 7.10 263.45 263.45 4.25 1.59 508884

25 Oct 266.20 267.85 263.75 4.10 267.70 267.70 4.35 1.60 413115

24 Oct 275.30 275.30 271.55 3.75 272.05 272.05 1.10 0.40 343959

23 Oct 277.70 278.10 271.60 6.50 273.15 273.15 6.75 2.41 372571

22 Oct 277.20 280.60 276.65 3.95 279.90 279.90 0.70 0.25 272447

19 Oct 276.40 279.70 274.50 5.20 279.20 279.20 0.95 0.34 341011



280.60 260.95 302.70 260.95 303.70 290.75 340.30 260.95

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (26/Oct) (27/Sep) (07/Sep) (29/Jan) (26/Oct)


RESISTANCE

278.10 High Oct 23,2018

275.30 High Oct 24,2018

268.05 High on 1-Hourly Chart


SUPPORT

260.95 Low on 1-Hourly Chart

259.25 Low Jan 11,2017

258.45 Low Jan 2,2017

256.50 Low Des 15,2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 263.95

STOP LOSS 265.45

TARGET 261.45

260.95



HSIV8 (Hang Seng Oct Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 October 2018


CHANGE VOLUME

26 Oct (HSIX8) 24966 25022 24524 498 24658 24658 245 0.98 79016

26 Oct (HSIV8) 24960 25018 24526 492 24657 24657 239 0.95 342455

25 Oct 24775 24993 24601 392 24896 24896 316 1.25 338502

24 Oct 25397 25654 25177 477 25212 25212 124 0.49 375655

23 Oct 25901 25974 25266 708 25336 25336 796 3.04 316388

22 Oct 25490 26222 25487 735 26132 26132 675 0.02 298404

19 Oct 25111 25723 25059 664 25457 25457 50 0.20 312860



26222 24524 27760 24524 28049 26170 33516 24524



RESISTANCE

25654 High Oct 24,2018

25408 High Oct 25,2018

25146 High on 1 Hourly Chart

24818 High on 1 Hourly Chart

SUPPORT

24457 Low on 1 Hourly Chart

24196 Low Apr 25,2017

23935 Low Apr 24,2017

23706 Low Apr 19,2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 24920

STOP LOSS 25090

TARGET 24650

24570

Daily HSIc1 15/05/2018 - 07/11/2018 (JAK)

17856

23614

24485

24946

23985

23538

28621

27371

21488

25620

21051

19394

21664

19400

18037

21195

18850

20278

22321

31544

29113

26805

25110

27444

28574

28149

33516

29860

28012

26642

32005

25080

Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price

29/10/2018; 24.634; 24.908; 24.457; 24.848

EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

29/10/2018; 25.738

WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

29/10/2018; 26.423

Price

HKD

Auto

24.500

25.000

25.500

26.000

26.500

27.000

27.500

28.000

28.500

29.000

29.500

RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

29/10/2018; 34,304 Value

HKD

Auto

Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

29/10/2018; -1.301

Value

HKD

Auto

21 28 04 11 19 25 03 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 08 15 22 29 05

Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018



Dollar topples from two-month high as Wall St worries persist - Reuters News

The U.S. dollar followed Wall Street lower on Friday, falling from the two-month high hit earlier in the day after news of stronger-than-ecpected third-quarter gross domestic product. U.S. stocks were off their lows late Friday, but remained down for the day, as concerns about a slew of disappointing earning forecasts persisted, showing how tariffs, rising wages and higher borrowing costs as well

as jitters over geopolitical events are hurting companies. "People are still worried about the U.S. earnings season," said Thierry Wizman, global interest rates and currencies strategist at Macquarie Group. The dollar index fell as much as 0.57 percent against a basket of six rivals as Wall Street sold off, last at 96.43. The move ended a losing streak for the euro, which has fallen 1.85 percent this month on pessimism about Italian budget talks - and fear of contagion across the bloc. Against the euro, the dollar fell as much as 0.71 percent, last at $1.140. Safe-haven currencies moved in lock-step with U.S. stocks. In afternoon trade the Japanese yen was up for the day, but as stocks recovered, the yen had retraced almost all the gains it had made on the initial dollar drop. The move in the Swiss franc was similar, weakening in the afternoon after having risen to its highest since Aug. 20 this morning. The U.S. economy slowed less than expected in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported, as the strongest consumer spending in nearly four years and a surge in inventory investment offset a tariff-related drop in soybean exports. Net exports took 1.8 percent off of the GDP figure, said Greg Anderson, global head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. The exchange of tariffs between the United States and China has lifted the value of the dollar, which serves as a safe haven in times of geopolitical turmoil. While a strong currency benefits U.S. assets, it also raises the cost of imports and exports, which can slow growth. The GDP report also showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, missed expectations after it increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter. The core PCE price index rose at a 2.1 percent pace in the April-June period. Soft inflation data also boosted the dollar. Despite the strong headline growth, it may give the Federal Reserve a reason to pause its rate-hiking cycle at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December, said Anderson. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal).

FOREX/CURRENCIES



EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 2.00%-2.25% (US)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 1.13720 1.14141 1.13345 79,6 1.14078 35,5 1.13723

Oct 25 1.13959 1.14313 1.13550 76,3 1.13723 18,3 1.13906

Oct 24 1.14702 1.14755 1.13780 97,5 1.13906 78,4 1.14690

Oct 23 1.14637 1.14923 1.14381 54,2 1.14690 6,2 1.14628

Oct 22 1.15107 1.15490 1.14546 94,4 1.14628 43,7 1.15065



1.15490 1.13345 1.16235 1.13345 1.18139 1.15252 1.25542 1.12997

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (26/Oct) (24/Sep) (10/Sep) (16/Feb) (15/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1.1621 High Oct 16,2018

1.1550 High Oct 22,2018

1.1476 High Oct 24,2018

1.1432 High Oct 25,2018

SUPPORT

1.1363 Low Aug 17,2018

1.1333 Low Aug 16,2018

1.1297 Low Aug 15,2018

1.1176 Low Jun 27,2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.1390

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 1.1340

TARGET 1.1460

1.1490

Daily EUR= 09/04/2018 - 08/11/2018 (JAK)

1.1507

1.1297

1.1297 1.1332

1.4511

1.4281

1.3139

1.2584

1.3333

1.2149

1.4197

1.2826

1.1875

1.3691

1.3817

1.2871

1.3265

1.3093

1.4296

1.4084

1.2642

1.4548

1.3243

1.2520

1.3283

1.4881

1.3548

1.4247

1.3486

1.3169

1.3385

1.2569

1.3330

1.3711

1.2660

1.3432

1.2878

1.0456

1.3295

1.14951.1466

1.3515

1.2885

1.2599

1.0538

1.2600

1.0460

1.1500

1.1158

1.1711

1.0709

1.1375

1.0777

1.1365

1.1121

1.0959

1.2092

1.1552

1.2245

1.1733

1.1790

1.2139

1.2413

1.2555

1.2476

1.1506

1.1996

EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20

26/10/2018; 1,1502

WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55

26/10/2018; 1,1561

Cndl; EUR=; Bid

26/10/2018; 1,1374; 1,1414; 1,1332; 1,1414

Price

USD

Auto

1,145

1,15

1,155

1,16

1,165

1,17

1,175

1,18

1,185

1,19

1,195

1,2

1,205

1,21

Price

USD

Auto

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,15

1,16

1,17

1,18

1,19

1,2

1,21

1,22

RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

26/10/2018; 37,499

Value

USD

Auto

50

Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14

26/10/2018; -0,0076

Value

USD

Auto

09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05

Apr 18 Mei 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Agust 18 Sep 18 Okt 18



USD/JPY Interest Rate: 2.00%-2.25% (US)/-0.1% (JP)


Oct 26 112.369 112.431 111.366 106,5 111.756 64,8 112.404

Oct 25 112.134 112.661 111.809 85,2 112.404 19,9 112.205

Oct 24 112.413 112.731 112.078 65,3 112.205 20,5 112.410

Oct 23 112.805 112.828 111.942 88,6 112.410 39,2 112.802

Oct 22 112.449 112.874 112.337 53,7 112.802 24,9 112.553



112.874 111.366 114.538 111.366 113.654 110.367 114.538 104.623

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (04/Oct) (26/Oct) (28/Sep) (07/Sep) (04/Oct) (23/Mar)


RESISTANCE

113.38 High Oct 09,2018




SUPPORT


111.15 Low Sep 13,2018

110.83 Low Sep 10,2018

110.36 Low Sep 07,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 111.85

STOP LOSS 112.35

TARGET 111.15

110.85



GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.75% (GB)/ 2.00%-2.25% (US)


Oct 26 1.28152 1.28402 1.27760 64,2 1.28302 16,5 1.28137

Oct 25 1.28807 1.29183 1.27953 123,0 1.28137 63,8 1.28775

Oct 24 1.29783 1.29892 1.28659 123,3 1.28775 103,2 1.29807

Oct 23 1.29611 1.30432 1.29358 107,4 1.29807 24,9 1.29558

Oct 22 1.30640 1.30887 1.29554 133,3 1.29558 105,4 1.30612



1.30887 1.27953 1.32566 1.27953 1.32970 1.27842 1.43754 1.26605

(22/Oct) (25/Oct) (12/Oct) (25/Oct) (20/Sep) (05/Sep) (17/Apr) (15/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1.3103 High Oct 19,2018

1.3043 High Oct 23,2018



SUPPORT


1.2728 Low Aug 20,2018

1.2696 Low Aug17,2018

1.2587 Low Jun 21,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.2820

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 1.2770

TARGET 1.2890

1.2920



USD/CHF Interest Rate: 2.00%-2.25% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)


Oct 26 0.99959 1.00253 0.99659 59,4 0.99710 30.0 1.00010

Oct 25 0.99702 1.00169 0.99536 63,3 1.00010 25,2 0.99758

Oct 24 0.99478 0.99884 0.99406 47,8 0.99758 29,3 0.99465

Oct 23 0.99578 0.99691 0.99365 32,6 0.99465 6,9 0.99534

Oct 22 0.99636 0.99789 0.99386 40,3 0.99534 19,1 0.99725



1.00253 0.99365 1.00253 0.98058 0.98177 0.95409 1.00668 0.91863

(26/Oct) (23/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (28/Sep) (21/Sep) (13/Jul) (16/Feb)


RESISTANCE

1.0098 High Mei 11,2017

1.0066 High Jul 13,2018

1.0036 High Nov 01,2017


SUPPORT





RECOMMENDATION

BUY ------

SELL 0.9980

STOP LOSS 1.0030

TARGET 0.9910

0.9880



AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/ 2.00%-2.25% (US)


Oct 26 0.70750 0.71030 0.70197 83,3 0.70929 14,0 0.70789

Oct 25 0.70622 0.70983 0.70554 42,9 0.70789 22,2 0.70567

Oct 24 0.70838 0.71050 0.70570 48,0 0.70567 26,3 0.70830

Oct 23 0.70798 0.70895 0.70542 35,3 0.70830 4,0 0.70790

Oct 22 0.71116 0.71239 0.70750 48,9 0.70790 37,9 0.71169



0.71239 0.70197 0.72369 0.70197 0.73141 0.70839 0.81346 0.70197



RESISTANCE

0.7314 High Sep 26,2018

0.7237 High Oct 02,2018

0.7197 High Oct 03,2018

0.7149 High Oct 19,2018

SUPPORT

0.7043 Low Oct 11,2018

0.6982 Low Feb 11,2016

0.6916 Low Jan 26,2016

0.6824 Low Jan 15,2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7075

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 0.7025

TARGET 0.7145

0.7175



NZD/USD Interest Rate: 1.75% (NZ)/ 2.00%-2.25% (US)


Oct 26 0.65221 0.65317 0.64638 67,9 0.65224 8,5 0.65139

Oct 25 0.65224 0.65431 0.65010 42,1 0.65139 5,0 0.65189

Oct 24 0.65504 0.65661 0.65170 49,1 0.65189 28,9 0.65478

Oct 23 0.65523 0.65677 0.65337 34,0 0.65478 1 0.65477

Oct 22 0.65976 0.65989 0.65425 56,4 0.65477 39,2 0.65869



0.65989 0.64638 0.66271 0.64231 0.66979 0.64998 0.74359 0.64231

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (08/Oct) (21/Sep) (11/Sep) (16/Feb) (08/Oct)


RESISTANCE

0.6725 High Aug 28, 2018

0.6697 High Sep 21, 2018

0.6638 High Sep 28, 2018


SUPPORT

0.6443 Low Oct 11,2018

0.6422 Low Oct 08,2018

0.6346 Low Jan 20,2016

0.6288 Low Sep 29,2015

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.6510

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 0.6460

TARGET 0.6580

0.6610



EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)


Oct 26 127.797 127.869 126.614 125,5 127.500 34.8 127.848

Oct 25 127.797 128.419 127.475 94,4 127.848 Flat 127.848

Oct 24 128.935 129.198 127.751 144,7 127.848 108,9 128.937

Oct 23 129.330 129.362 128.195 116,7 128.937 39,0 129.327

Oct 22 129.444 130.185 129.183 100,2 129.327 19,2 129.519



130.185 126.614 132.445 126.614 133.113 128.000 137.486 124.602

(22/Oct) (26/Oct) (01/Oct) (26/Oct) (21/Sep) (07/Sep) (02/Feb) (29/May)


RESISTANCE





SUPPORT


125.56 Low Agt 17,2018

125.26 Low Agt 15,2018

124.60 Low Mei 29,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ------

SELL 127.60

STOP LOSS 128.10

TARGET 126.90

126.60

Daily EURJPY= 20/04/2018 - 06/11/2018 (JAK)

126.04

13.1.18

149.72

141.05

139.02

128.16

134.59

132.50

130.00

124.64

126.25

114.80

109.46

110.78

118.45

112.31

133.48

131.98131.37

130.84

137.50

124.61

128.48Cndl; EURJPY=; Bid

26/10/2018; 127,86; 127,89; 126,61; 127,54

EMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Open); 20

26/10/2018; 129,55

WMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 55

26/10/2018; 129,95

Price

JPY

Auto

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

RSI; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

26/10/2018; 26,304

Value

JPY

AutoMom; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14

26/10/2018; -2,56

Value

JPY

Auto23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05

Apr 18 Mei 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Agust 18 Sep 18 Okt 18



USD/CAD Interest Rate: 2.00%-2.25% (US)/1.75% (CA)

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.3094 1.3099



1.3158 1.2965 1.3132 1.2778 1.3226 1.2880 1.3385 1.2246

(26/Oct) (24/Oct) (19/Oct) (01/Oct) (06/Sep) (20/Sep) (27/Jun) (31/Jan)


RESISTANCE

1.3225 High Sep 06,2018

1.3196 High Sep 10,2018

1.3173 High Sep 11,2018


SUPPORT





RECOMMENDATION

BUY ------

SELL 1.3115

STOP LOSS 1.3165

TARGET 1.3045

1.3015



Gold rises as stocks slide triggers flight to safety - Reuters News

Gold rose on Friday to a more than three-month peak as investors rushed to the safety of bullion as stock markets around the globe plunged, putting the metal on track for its fourth week of gains. Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,234.35 an ounce at 14:10 p.m. EDT (1810 GMT), having earlier gained nearly 1 percent to $1,243.32, its highest since mid-July. U.S. gold futures settled up $3.40, or 0.28 percent, at $1,235.80. Spot gold was on course for a fourth weekly gain, its longest

winning streak since January. "We continue to see money flows out of riskier equity markets into safe-haven asset classes. That is one of the main drivers of this (gold) market," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Stocks worldwide spiraled downward on Friday and were set to post their worst weekly losing streak in more than five years. "With the extreme slide in stocks, gold became a temporary safe haven. But event driven rallies don't last long and the metal pared gains as stocks gave up some losses," said George Gero, managing director at RBC Wealth Management. "Bonds have also become safe haven with stocks getting sold-off. The dollar is still pretty high, which is a headwind for gold as it makes the metal expensive in major consumers like India," Gero said, adding that interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve will be a another challenge for gold. Rising rates are normally negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and could boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Gold demand in India this week was muted as a recent rally in domestic prices prompted buyers to postpone purchases despite the approaching festival and wedding season. Gold prices are up more than 6 percent after falling to $1,159.96 an ounce in mid-August, the lowest since January 2017. "We are also seeing some more short-covering in the futures markets, which is lifting prices," said Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff. Investor flows into bullion, considered a safe store of value during times of financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, can be seen by the rise in holdings of physically-backed exchange traded products. Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, saw outflows of about 4.5 million ounces between late April and early October. But holdings are now at their highest since the end of August, at 24.1 million ounces. Among other precious metals, palladium was up 0.5 percent at $1,105.22 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $1,150.50 an ounce earlier this week. Silver was up 0.1 percent at $14.63 per ounce, and platinum 1.2 percent higher at $832.50 an ounce. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

PRECIOUS METAL



GOLD (XAU/USD)


Oct 26 1232.120 1243.330 1229.970 13.36 1233.750 1.75 1232.000 --

Oct 25 1234.370 1239.050 1228.000 11.05 1232.000 1.95 1233.950 --

Oct 24 1230.580 1234.240 1225.530 8.71 1233.950 3.94 1230.010 --

Oct 23 1222.150 1239.620 1221.650 17.97 1230.010 8.11 1221.900 --

Oct 22 1226.940 1229.440 1219.980 9.46 1221.900 4.54 1226.440 --



1243.330 1219.980 1243.330 1183.150 1212.540 1180.670 1365.910 1160.130

(26/Oct) (22/Oct) (26/Oct) (08/Oct) (13/Sep) (28/Sep) (25/Jan) (16/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1265.87 High Jul 09,2018

1256.87 High Jul 11,2018

1247.90 High Jul 13,2018

1244.81 High Jul 17,2018

SUPPORT

1229.38 Low Oct 26,2018

1225.10 Low Oct 24,2018

1222.95 Low Oct 16,2018

1215.74 Low Oct 12,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1232.50

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 1226.00

TARGET 1242.50

1247.50

Daily XAU= 11/06/2018 - 02/11/2018 (JAK)

1345.00

1306.20

1391.76

1260.60

1296.50

1322.60

1306

1144.96

1236.50 1236

1195.83

1045.85 1050

1108.50

1356.20

1310.56

1367.33

1304.91

1325.20

1357.54

1211.08

1309.301314.84

1235.92

1365.231366.06

1325.96

1284.06

1159.96

1214.28

1239.68

Cndl; XAU=; Bid

26/10/2018; 1.231,8300; 1.243,3199; 1.229,3800; 1.235,4100

EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20

26/10/2018; 1.218,2544

WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55

26/10/2018; 1.208,2038

Price

USD

Ozs

Auto

1.150

1.160

1.170

1.180

1.190

1.200

1.210

1.220

1.230

1.240

1.250

1.260

RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

26/10/2018; 69,854 Value

USD

OzsMom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14

26/10/2018; 47,7900 Value

USDOzs11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29

Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018



SILVER (XAG/USD)


Oct 26 14.625 14.758 14.561 0.20 14.685 0.06 14.624

Oct 25 14.683 14.761 14.580 0.18 14.624 0.04 14.668

Oct 24 14.733 14.786 14.632 0.15 14.668 0.04 14.711

Oct 23 14.549 14.791 14.499 0.29 14.711 0.17 14.543

Oct 22 14.626 14.673 14.501 0.17 14.543 0.07 14.614



14.791 14.499 14.894 14.223 14.700 13.923 17.682 13.923

(23/Oct) (23/Oct) (02/Oct) (10/Oct) (28/Sep) (11/Sep) (25/Jan) (11/Sep)


RESISTANCE

15.33 High Aug 13,2018

15.05 High Aug 15,2018

14.90 High Oct 02,2018


SUPPORT


14.55 Low Oct 25,2018

14.47 Low Oct 22,2018

14.41 Low Oct 18,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 14.65

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 14.55

TARGET 14.90

15.00

Daily XAG= 22/05/2018 - 06/11/2018 (JAK)16.44

21.55

13.60

17.73

16.36

18.48

19.89

15.06

16.00

15.40

17.45

17.77

17.15

14.12

15.95

20.10

18.36

20.78

19.12

18.20

15.5915.57

15.83

17.39

15.59

17.69

17.31

16.21

17.35

16.48

15.13

14.30

14.99

13.97

21.55

19.89

17.73

17.45

15.40

17.77

18.48

17.15

16.44

16.36

13.60

14.12

16.00

15.95

15.06

20.10

20.78

19.12

18.36

15.57

18.20

17.39

15.5915.59

15.83

17.35 17.31

16.48

16.21

15.13

17.69

14.30

14.99

13.97

Cndl; XAG=; Bid

26/10/2018; 14,6010; 14,7710; 14,5500; 14,6900

EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20

26/10/2018; 14,5607

WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55

26/10/2018; 14,4637

Price

USD

Ozs

Auto

13,8

14,1

14,4

14,7

15

15,3

15,6

15,9

RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

26/10/2018; 60,219 Value

USDOzsMom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14

26/10/2018; 0,3500 Value

USDOzs28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05




Oil rises ahead of Iran sanctions but falls for a third week - Reuters News

Oil prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations that sanctions on Iran would tighten global supplies, but futures posted a weekly drop as a slump in stock markets and concerns about trade wars clouded the fuel demand outlook. Brent crude futures rose 73 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $77.62 a barrel. The global benchmark

marked a weekly loss of about 2.7 percent and is down about $10 in three weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to end at $67.59 a barrel. It posted a weekly loss of about 2.3 percent. Prices got some support when two sources said on Friday Iraq will stop trucking crude oil from its northern Kirkuk oil field to Iran in November to comply with U.S. sanctions. Washington has said it wants to reduce Iranian oil sales to zero, although this looks unlikely. Still, many buyers, including Iran's biggest customer, China, appear to be falling in line, forcing Tehran to store unsold oil on tankers. "If you move forward and see people playing by the rules, which I don't believe ever really happens, you'll see supply come off and we could run into an issue later," said Michael McAllister, director of equity research at MUFG Securities. A global collapse in equities has weighed on oil markets. Financial markets have been roiled by the U.S.-China trade war, a rout in emerging market currencies, rising interest rates and economic concerns in Italy. There are also signs of a slowdown in global trade, with container and bulk freight rates dropping. "If global demand contracts more than we think, that doesn't bode well for oil demand. GDP and oil demand are pretty well-correlated," said Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst at CFRA Research. Saudi Arabia's OPEC governor said on Thursday oil markets could face oversupply. "The market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks," Adeeb Al-Aama told Reuters. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there could be a need for intervention to reduce oil stockpiles. U.S. crude production is soaring, boosted by technological advances. Output this year is forecast to break the annual record in 1970. U.S. energy firms added oil rigs for a third straight week, keeping the rig count at its highest in over three years, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said. Declining productivity in some shale fields has forced companies to drill more to keep output growing. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

O I L



CLX8/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 22 Oct 2018 - Reuters)


Oct 26 66.93 67.86 66.19 1.67 67.59 0.64 66.95

Oct 25 66.34 67.63 66.01 1.62 66.95 0.57 66.38

Oct 24 66.15 67.70 66.04 1.66 66.38 0.30 66.08

Oct 23 69.53 69.63 65.73 3.90 66.08 3.43 69.51

Oct 22 69.58 69.82 68.45 1.37 69.51 0.01 69.52

Oct 19 68.74 69.87 68.61 1.26 69.52 0.85 68.67



69.82 65.73 76.88 65.73 73.71 66.85 76.88 58.06

(22/Oct) (23/Oct) (03/Oct) (23/Oct) (28/Sep) (07/Sep) (03/Oct) (09/Feb)


RESISTANCE

73.56 High Jul 28,2018

72.29 High Oct 17,2018



SUPPORT

66.20 Low Oct 26,2018

65.99 Low Oct 25,2018

65.33 Low Aug 22,2018

64.68 Low Aug 21,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 67.10

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 66.10

TARGET 68.60

69.60

Daily CLZ8 26/04/2018 - 06/11/2018 (JAK)

76.72

65.74

WMA; CLZ8; Trade Price(Last); 55

26/10/2018; 70,39

EMA; CLZ8; Trade Price(Last); 20

26/10/2018; 69,84

Cndl; CLZ8; Trade Price

26/10/2018; 66,95; 67,88; 66,20; 67,68

Price

USD

Bbl

Auto

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

RSI; CLZ8; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

26/10/2018; 35,034 Value

USD

Bbl

AutoMom; CLZ8; Trade Price(Last); 14

26/10/2018; -6,49 Value

USD

Bbl30 07 14 21 29 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05


Documents

DAILY OUTLOOKalphagoldfutures.com/pdfresearch/365-Daily Outlook AGF 29 Oktober 2018.pdfU.S. midterm congressional elections. "Once the elections and earnings are out of the way we'll