Upload
epic-daily-report
View
41
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
DAILY I FOREX REPORT 12
TH
MARCH 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Measuring Risk and Stimulus for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY
EUR/USD Trade at 1.3000 Still Constructive; S&P 500 Warning Flags
Forex: Dollar Rallies for 8 Weeks Straight after Strong NFP-Friday Close
Dollar May Decline as Markets Rethink US Jobs Data Implications
The Australian and New ZealandDollars opened the trading week lower as expected in the wake of Chinese CPI figures released over the weekend. The report showed the year-on-year inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated
to 3.2 percent in February, marking the highest reading in 10 months. This appeared to fuel concerns about on-coming policy tightening that slows Chinese growth, eroding the outlook for demand from a crucial market for Australian and New Zealand exporters.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3035 tgs
1.3055/1.3075 sl 1.3005
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
96.25 tgt 96.45/96.65
SL 95.95
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.4900 tgt
1.4880/1.4860 SL
1.4930
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2987
HIGH: 1.3025
LOW: 1.2984
CLOSE: 1.3007
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 96.19
HIGH: 96.25
LOW: 95.97
CLOSE: 96.06
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.4907
HIGH: 1.4943
LOW: 1.4900
CLOSE: 1.4902
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .002( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 34(BEARIISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8712
HIGH: 0.8728
LOW: 0.8703
CLOSE: 0.8727
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>61(BULLISH SIGNAL)
www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.8250
HIGH: 82.8340
LOW: 82.6300
CLOSE: 82.7500
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>60(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Mar 11
JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations
High
00:01
GBP Lloyds Employment
Confidence (FEB)
Low -44
-45
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)
Medium -21.5%
-26.4%
07:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)
Medium 13.7B 13.9B 12.1B
07:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)
Low 11.3B 10.5B 20.2B
07:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 3.3% 0.7% -1.5%
07:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)
Low 2.9%
2.9%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)
Low 0.8%
0.2%
08:15
CHF Retail Sales
(Real) (YoY) (JAN) Medium 1.9%
4.7%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)
Medium -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)
Medium -2.8% -2.7% -2.7%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price
Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-0.2% 1.4%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
23:50
JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-5.5
23:50
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-10.3
Tue
Mar 12 00:01
EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)
Low
00:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)
Medium
-1% -4%
00:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)
Low
-2
00:30
AUD NAB Business
Confidence (FEB) Medium
3
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)
Low
$A49.9B
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)
Low
$A22.4B
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)
Medium
43.3
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3%
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
2.3%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.6% 0.6%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)
High
1.5% 1.5%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.8% 0.8%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
(FEB F)
High
1.8% 1.8%
09:00
EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)
Low
0.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
(JAN)
Low
0.1% 1.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.1% -1.7%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0% 1.6%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.0% -1.5%
09:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Medium
-£8950 -£8897
09:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds)
(JAN)
Medium
-£3200 -£3201
09:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Low
-£4500 -£4239
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)
Low
90.0 88.9
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)
Low
3617
15:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)
Medium
0.0%
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)
Medium
21:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.9%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)
Medium
7.7%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
108.3
Wed Mar 13
AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
7%
NZD New Zealand
Manpower Survey (2Q) Medium
15%
00:30
AUD Home Loans (JAN)
Medium
0.5% -1.5%
00:30
AUD Investment Lending (JAN)
Low
-2.4%
00:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-2.7%
06:30
EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)
Low
-0.2% -0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production
s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.1% 0.70%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-2.0% -2.3%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)
Low
14.80%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.5% 0.6%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.6% -1.3%
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)
High
0.5% 0.1%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)
Medium
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.1%
14:00
USD Business Inventories (JAN)
Medium
0.4% 0.1%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)
Low
3833K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
257K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
(MAR 8)
Low
-616K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
-3830K
20:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
2.50% 2.50%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥657.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥269.6B
Thu Mar 14
00:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)
Medium
2.2%
CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
14%
JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
11
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-4.8% -7.3%
00:30
AUD Employment Change (FEB)
High
10.0K 10.4K
00:30
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)
High
5.5% 5.4%
00:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
-9.8K
00:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
20.2K
00:30
AUD Participation Rate
(FEB) Low
65.0% 65.0%
02:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)
Low
66.7%
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
-5.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
1.0%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)
Medium
-5.1%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
2.9%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)
Medium
08:30
CHF Swiss National
Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
0.00% 0.00%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
-0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)
(4Q)
Low
-0.7%
12:30
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)
Low
12:30
USD Current Account Balance (4Q)
Low
-$112.8B -$107.5B
12:30
CAD New Housing
Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.3%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index (MoM) (FEB) Medium
0.6% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.7% 1.4%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)
Medium
340K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)
Low
3094K
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)
Low
-146
20:30
USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review
Low
21:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)
Medium
55.2
Fri Mar 15
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
Medium
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
121
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)
Low
2.3%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.1%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.8%
09:30
EUR Itally General Government Debt
(JAN)
Medium
1988.4B
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% -1.0%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.8%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.3% 1.3%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)
Low
2.0%
12:30
USD Empire
Manufacturing (MAR) Low
8 10.04
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% 0.0%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.6%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
2.0% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Core Index s.a. (FEB)
Medium
232.138 232.108
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)
Low
230.28
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)
Low
$25.2B
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)
Medium
$64.2B
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.3%
13:15
USD Industrial Production (FEB)
Medium
0.3% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)
Low
79.3% 79.1%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)
Low
0.3% -0.4%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)
Medium
78 77.6
www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966
Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.
Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.
This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility
The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.
The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.
All Rights Reserved.
Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.
We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.