Daily FX Str Europe 15 July 2011

8/6/2019 Daily FX Str Europe 15 July 2011

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Foreign Exchange London 08:00

FX Daily Strategist: Europe

CHF/USD Vs. XAU/USD

Source: Reuters, BNPP. The Chart plots gold (inUSD terms) leading CHFUSD by about twoweeks. Despite a big divide in the interimbetween QE1 and QE2 (see red box) there hasbeen a relationship between the two. The wedgeformation on gold mid-June was concerning and the potential for a break down (moving to a post-QE2 unknown territory) suggested that USDCHF could be posed for a meaningful retracement.However, all it took was the FOMC minuteshighlighting a debate on QE3 amongst membersto reinvigorate prior trends. However, we wonder if this will be a one-way bet with Bernanke having reinforced the two-way nature of the debate.

This is not classified as objective research. Please refer to important information at the end of the report.http://www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com London: +44(0)20 7595 8086 NY : +1 212 841 2408 Sing.: +65 6210 3263/3347

GMT Country Release Mkt Last08:00 IT (May) EU Trade Balanc bn EUR -0.7

09:00 EU (May)Foreign Trade Bbn EUR (nsa)

-3.2 -4.1

12:30 US (Jun) CPI % (m/m) -0.1 0.212:30 US (Jul) Empire State 5.0 -7.812:30 US (Jun) Core CPI % (y/y) 1.6 1.5

12:30 US (Jun)Core CPI %(m/m)

0.2 0.3

12:30 US (Jun) CPI % (y/y) 3.6 3.613:15 US (Jun)

Industrial Prod %(m/m)

0.3 0.1

13:15 US (Jun) Capacity Utilis % 76.9 76.713:55 US (Jul) Michigan Sentim 72.0 71.8

Bernanke confirms wait-and-see policy; markets to revert

to 'weak US data means weak USD' theme

US debt ceiling: shift towards fallback proposal

Eurozone stress tests in focus, failure to schedule

Summit says no agreement in sight: EUR headed lower

The past 24 hours have seen little progress on the two mostpressing concerns for financial markets. S&P have signalled their disapproval by putting the US on CreditWatch negative. Asuggestion that US debt ceiling negotiations might continue over the weekend at Camp David seems unlikely to go ahead given thelack of support from both Republican and Democrat HouseLeaders. In this context, the White House announcement that

agreement has been reached on USD1.5tr of spending cutsprobably implies that agreement on further cuts may be at animpasse. Focus is shifting to a fallback proposal from SenateRepublican leader McConnell that would allow Obama to raise thedebt ceiling unilaterally at regular intervals - but at the political costof appearing fiscally irresponsible in an election year. The lower chances of a second HIA in conjunction with this fallback planmeans that it likely represents the most USD-negative outcome.Fed Chairman Bernanke has used the second day of his semi-annual testimony to balance things out a bit, re-iterating our contention late Wednesday that while further easing remainspossible pending a renewed economic deterioration, the core of the committee remains in wait-and-see mode. Thus it is likely thatwe revert to the familiar dynamic where weaker US employmentand inflation data leads the USD weaker as expectations of

QE3 build - and vice versa. As Bernanke noted, inflation is nowhigher than late last year. Today's core CPI release thus takes onadded significance; we match consensus in seeing the uptrend incore CPI continuing up to 1.6% y/y.On Europe, the publication of the EU stress tests will be watched.While press reports suggest that up to 15 of the 91 banks arelikely to fail, the real reaction may have to wait until bank analystscrunch the numbers over the weekend to determine the credibilityor otherwise of the tests; and to calculate the relative scores of those instituitions taking part. Also of interest will be the plans of national regulators to recapitalise those failing institutions.Meanwhile there has been no further news of an emergencysummit of EU leaders; and although there are still hopes that onemight be called sooner rather than later, certainly Germany

appears in no rush. The approach still seems to be focused onGreece, and with Greece fully funded till September, theconclusion is that there is no need for haste. But this appears adangerous game: while the passage of the Italian budget maywell ease concerns in the short term, the risks of a further slide inconfidence over the next couple of months are patent. Lastinguncertainty means that EUR continues to remain vulnerable in our eyes. Certainly EURCHF as a leading indicator of EUR sentimentcontinues to remain depressed; we continue to favour a lower EUR. AUD has fallen as an Australian bank called for moresignificant rate cuts from the RBA over the next 12 months, but weare more optimistic. The travails of the globe's two most importantcurrencies mean that investors are increasingly running out of places to park their cash. We continue to see inflows into Asianand commodity currencies as reserve managers diversify intomore fiscally responsible states; we expect that dips in the AUDare likely to remain shallow as it remains supported by thesovereign bid and by mining investment inflows. See today'sMarket Focus for more.

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MARKET: Comments from Fed Chairman Bernankesuggesting a shelving of any possible QE3 led topressure on risk ahead of today's much awaited US JuneCPI release, while concerns over an agreement to raisethe debt ceiling continue.

EURUSD opened at $1.4142 jumping to $1.4199 as S&Pfollowed up yesterday's warning placing the US on "creditnegative watch" with a potential to downgrade within 90days if a debt ceiling deal wasn't agreed. Large offers at$1.4200 prompted a return to $1.4150 before trading a$.4160/90 range. USDJPY eased back from early highsof Y79.25 to Y78.90 before option related and monthlyimporter demand into the Tokyo fix returned the pair toY79.10.

AUDUSD opened in Asia at $1.0725 after easing in NYfrom $1.0787 highs following Fed Bernanke's commentsthat doused any imminent hopes of QE3, leading to risk-off and a fall in the commodity and equity markets.AUDUSD hit early lows of $1.0717 before moving higher in controlled fashion to a peak of $1.0747 followingS&P's decision to put the US on a negative credit watchin the event a deal isn't struck on the US debt ceiling.AUDNZD was also quiet trading NZ$1.2713-57, withNZDUSD choked into a $0.8412-48 range. Aussie-yentraded Y84.69-85.08. (MNI).

Asian equities mixed at best, though Japan and Chinacontinue to hold modest gains. IN US overnight, the S&P500 closed 0.67% lower despite better earnings reportsfrom JPM and Google. Losses were broad based acrosssectors.

Data/ Events in the day ahead

European Banking Authority publishes results of bank stress tests (16:00 GMT), which will be a keyfocus going into the weekend.

European data starts at 0600GMT with ACEA new car registrations data for June, which is followed by the BoFretail survey at 0630GMT and France trade data at0645GMT. The EMU May trade balance is due at0900GMT and is expected to reduce to a seasonally-adjusted -E2.8 billion.

US data starts at 1230GMT with CPI and the NY FedEmpire State Survey. Consumer prices are expected tofall 0.2% in June after rising more than expected in May.Core prices are seen to increase 0.2%. AAA reportedthat gasoline prices retreated modestly in June after rising for eight months in a row. The NY Fed EmpireState Index is forecast to increase to a reading of 7.0 inJuly after falling into negative territory in June. At1315GMT, industrial production is expected to increase0.3% in June after modest readings in the last twomonths. US data continues at 1355GMT, when thepreliminary Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to fallto 71.0 after falling to 71.8 in June.

NEWS

EUROPE:

Results of EU bank stress tests will be publishedtoday, July 15 at 1600 GMT, followed by a newsconference at 1630 GMT. (Reuters)

More ahead of stress tests: EBA says Germany’sHelaba did not comply with test standards. Spain'sPastor, Catalunya fail, blames strict test rules. Up to 15banks seen failing test - investors, analysts. (Reuters)

German FinMin Schaeuble: Eurobonds are not asolution, Italy cannot be compared with Greece as it is ina decent state, Eurozone debt problems cannot besolved overnight, Europe must ensure Greece canfinance its debt, Greek crisis is now endangering Euro asa whole. (Reuters)

Moody’s Investors Service yesterday lowered theratings on Irish government-backed debt issues byfive lenders, including Bank of Ireland Plc, following itsdowngrade of the state to non-investment grade thisweek.

IMF Deputy Director Ajai Chopra said Ireland has agood chance of returning to markets if Europeanleaders are able to stem contagion from the region’s debtcrisis.

Italy's austerity budget passed its first parliamentaryhurdle on Thursday but the opposition says PrimeMinister Silvio Berlusconi's government is in a shamblesand should resign after it is finally approved. The four-year package, which has been increased to 48 billioneuros ($68 billion) from 40 billion euros in the last 24hours, is aimed at balancing the budget by 2014. Theupper house approved it by a margin of 161-135. It is dueto be approved by the lower house Chamber of Deputieson Friday and signed into law several hours later.[RTRS]

US

S&P Places U.S. 'AAA/A-1+' ratings on credit watchnegative, may lower US L/T rating by 1 or more notchesinto AA category in next three months if deal does notstabilize the debt, sees US lawmakers raising debtceiling by end of July. (Reuters)

US debt talks ended Thursday with no solution.Obama gives party leaders 24-36 hour deadline.Another White House meeting could come this weekend.US Senator McConnell said that group probably wouldn'tmeet Friday, protracted talks suggest focus may turntowards backup plan, Leaders plan to discuss next stepswith rank-and-file. Democratic source says the Presidenttold top lawmakers that a USD 2tn deal would bepossible if all sides gave a little. (Reuters)

US President Obama may summon congressionalleaders to a Camp David summit this weekend after the latest round of White House negotiations on thedeficit ended on a tense note. Obama told the lawmakersthey have until tomorrow to decide whether they canreach a deal to cut the deficit or settle for a way to raisethe $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before US borrowing

Foreign Exchange Strategy Friday, 15 July 2011

http://www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com 2





authority expires Aug. 2, two Democratic officials said.[BBG]

Fed Chairman Bernanke in the second day of the semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking

Committee.

- He repeated that the Fed was ready to act if recoveryfalters. But he also said the situation today wassomewhat different than when QE2 launched and policywas still very accommodative. Inflation is higher now thanlate last year, not yet ready to take action.

- He said that when considering spending cuts, congressshould take into account that the recovery is still rather fragile. Said a Treasury default would be a "calamitousoutcome", destroy trust and confidence of investors.

Ex-Fed chair Volcker: Limits to what Fed can do to

further ease U.S. monetary policy and further measurecould even have negative effects. (Reuters)

DATA RECAP: Core PPI higher than expected inJune at 2.4% y/y (2.2% y/y tipped) versus 2.1% y/y inMay. However, headline PPI softer at 7.0% y/y (7.4%tipped) versus 7.3% y/y in May. Retail sales (ex autosand gas) softer than expected in June: +0.2% (+0.4%tipped) versus downwardly revised +0.2% in May (+0.3%pre-revision). Advanced retail sales however stronger +0.1% (-0.1% tipped). Initial weekly jobless claimsdrop 22K to 405K, better than the 415K expected, froma upwardly revised 427K in the prior week (418K pre-revision).

JP Morgan profits higher, beats estimates: Q2 EPS$1.27 vs Wall Street view $1.21 with profit lifted by lower costs for bad loans

IMF

IMF wants G-20 plan to deal with European Banks,warns European bank capitalization remains low aheadof stress tests and vulnerable to a tightening in fundingconditions. (Reuters)

IMF: Ireland needs quick solution to euro crisis,meeting its targets under EU-IMF bailout, needs Europe

to come up with crisis solution, second bailout couldhappen without private sector pain, still aiming to tapdebt markets in 2012, faces big redemption in Jan 2014.(Reuters)

IMF says Greek debt comments may help break EUdeadlock. Private-sector involvement deal shouldimprove Greece's debt profile, warns that debt rollover and maturity extensions likely to prompt temporaryselective default. Economists say IMF's focus on debtsustainability encourages bond buyback strategy.(Reuters)

EU and IMF praise Irish austerity program, Ireland

hitting benchmarks for government finances, meeting alltargets. Officials took pains to laud Ireland and blamemuch of the financial markets' current pessimism about

the country on the unsettled situation in Greece and inthe wider euro zone. (Reuters)

JAPAN

BOJ Minutes: Potential need for additional easing hadnot decreased but saw no urgent need to act, importantto consider appropriate timing, Yen’s uptrend could affectsentiment of Japan’s exporting firms, downside risks fromoverseas economies had heightened somewhat, Japan’sdata had recovered but remain at low level, more mindfulof downside risks than upside risks for Japan, new creditline for growth sector need not be of significant amount,Japan firms increasingly buying overseas firms by takingadvantage of yen. (Reuters)

Japan FinMin Noda: Yen rises influences by overseasfactors, Yen’s recent rises ‘one-sided’ in recent days, willmonitor FX market carefully, no comment on Yen levels,must try to prevent business mood from worsening dueto Yen and power shortages, doesn’t think trust in dollar being shaken, expects PM Kan to resign after self-setconditions met. (Reuters)

Two BOJ members saw potential need for moreeasing Two of the Bank of Japan's nine policy boardmembers said at the June board meeting that thepotential need for additional easing had not declined,although they saw no urgent need to act or felt there wasa need to consider an appropriate timing for a move,minutes of the meeting showed on Friday. (Reuters)

CHINA

China Stumbles in Yuan Grand Plan to make itscurrency more international. More than a year later, thePeople's Bank of China touted the program as a"breakthrough," citing a surge in the amount of trade inthe currency. (WSJ)

PBOC appears less determined to let yuan rise,pulled the yuan's mid-point back from a record high,suggesting the authorities may temper the currency'space of appreciation, traders said. (Reuters)

China Jan-June FDI rises 18 pct y/y to $61 bln in thefirst half of the year, 18 percent more than in the same

period of 2010, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday.(Reuters)

China H2 export outlook uncertain China faces anuncertain export outlook for the rest of the year due torising production costs and weak foreign demand for itsproducts, the trade ministry said on Friday. (Reuters)







Asian Financial DecouplingWe note with interest the remarkable resilience of traditional risk currencies, particularly the AUD, NZD andAsian currencies, in the face of recent stresses. Whereasin the past a risk-off moment such as this week's Italy-

related stress would have been expected to result in amore significant position unwind, there has been littleevidence of rushed selling this time. Indeed, both SGDand NZD made new all-time highs against the USDyesterday. Still-strong Chinese growth supports the well-worn theme of Asian economic decoupling. But the solidbalance sheets rebuilt after – and in response to – theAsian crisis, offer a reassurance sorely lacking in the G4currencies. Perhaps what we have witnessed over thepast few weeks is supportive of the notion of financialdecoupling.Flows into the region remain robust as evidenced both bymeasures of hot money into China, but also from more‘respectable’ sources such as EPFR. But with investable

assets thin on the ground, real money managers havebeen reluctant to disengage from the one major regionthat offers both yield and growth. Regional central bankshave helped ease the decision: periods of stress earlier in the year saw authorities dampen volatility on thetopside – the message has been that while rapidappreciation may not be allowed, neither will rapiddepreciation. Massive reserve holdings back up thatcompact.And those reserve holdings have a second part to play.Against the backdrop of joint EU and US woes, thetraditional reserve currencies are increasinglyquestioned. The role of the EUR as the globe’s ‘anti-USD’ is undermined by the current debt crisis and by theweak policy response from European politicians. So

while the USD looks unattractive as the Fed edgestowards yet another currency-debasing round of QE,market appetite to assume yet more Eurozone riskappears limited, hawkish EBC notwithstanding. Thesetwo currencies make up 87.3% of those global reservesfor which breakdowns are provided to the IMF; indeedthe currencies of the UK and Japan – hardly in better fiscal shape and, in the case of the UK, just as exposedto a Euro-calamity – make up another 7.9%. Where doesa Reserve Manager in search of safety go? Alternativesare limited by lack of depth and liquidity in many markets,but since mid-2009, the ‘Other Currencies’ component of reserves has jumped from 2.2% of the total to 4.7% inQ1 this year. AUD, and indeed NZD – backed in some

sense by the hard currency that is commodities – haveundoubtedly benefited.Against this background of stable growth and stablefinancial markets, investors may be re-examining theconcept of the traditional safe haven. Certainly the CHF,JPY and Gold are likely to continue to outperform inperiods of financial stress. And a more significant eventshock along the lines of the Lehman crisis wouldprobably still see USD benefit from a large deleveraging-driven bid. But in the meantime, with both USD and EURsuffering from a lack of credibility, Asian, AUD and NZDcurrencies may represent a different sort of safe haven –and continue to outperform as a consequence.



Chart 1: EURUSD vs AUD, KRW

Oct

09 10

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

11

Feb Apr Jun

85.000

87.500

90.000

92.500

95.000

97.500

100.000

102.500

105.00090

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

All Rebased 1-July-10 = 100

USDKRW (RHS, Inversed)

AUDUSD

EURUSD

Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro.Reactions in AUD and KRW markets to eurozonestresses have so far been relatively contained this timearound – in contrast to the reaction in May last year.Both Korea and Australia have made efforts to weantheir banking systems off short-term financing over the past year, but the greater factor behind the resilience islikely that the USD in he meantime has initiated and completely QE2 – and may now be headed for QE3. Inthe meantime the growth and stability of Asia continuesto attract investors.

Chart 2: FX Reserve Shifts

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

"Other Currencies" (%, RHS)

EUR Holdings (%)

USD Holdings (%)

Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro.The IMF’s COFER data detail shifts in the currency composition of official reserves – at least for thosereserves whose composition is disclosed to the IMF. Aslow fall in USD holdings in favour of the EUR wasevident for much of the last decade after the introductionof the EUR. However since the financial crisis, that shift has been not into EUR but into “other” currencies (whichdoes not include GBP, JPY and CHF – these are alsobroken down separately). We assume that AUD and CAD make up a large portion of these “others”, with NZDalso featuring.





Daily Currency SummaryG3

EURUSD

Today’s focus will be on the EU stress tests. While press reports suggest that up to 15 of the 91 banks are likely tofail, the real reaction may have to wait until bank analysts crunch the numbers over the weekend to determine thecredibility or otherwise of the tests; and to calculate the relative scores of those institutions taking part. Also of interest will be the plans of national regulators to recapitalise those failing institutions. Meanwhile there has been nofurther news of an emergency summit of EU leaders; and although there are still hopes that one might be calledsooner rather than later, certainly Germany appears in no rush. The approach still seems to be focused on Greece,and with Greece fully funded till September, the conclusion is that there is no need for haste. But this appears adangerous game: while the passage of the Italian budget may well ease concerns in the short term, the risks of afurther slide in confidence over the next couple of months are patent. Lasting uncertainty means that EUR continuesto remain vulnerable in our eyes. Certainly EURCHF as a leading indicator of EUR sentiment continues to remaindepressed; we continue to favour a lower EUR.

USDJPY

USDJPY struggles to rebound even on a less dovish Bernanke. We see little chance of immediate intervention withthe stance inconsistent with monetary policy – the BoJ upgraded its economic assessment earlier this week. We note

with interest that following Vice Minister for International affairs Tamaki’s departure to the OECD last week, there iscurrently no top FX official in Japan. Tamaki had been instrumental in putting in place the G7 coordinatedintervention in mid-March following the Japanese earthquake. But a softer US CPI print today would threaten a movelower that might force the authorities’ hand: retail accounts are once again dangerously short yen.

JPY CrossesWe continue to call for a lower EURJPY but are less bearish on other yen crosses. The key will be the extent towhich EUR is the driver as Euro-concerns mount over the stress tests; and whether a more significant washout of retail JPY shorts takes place.

EUR Bloc

EURGBP

Sterling has done well against both the EUR and the USD – but this can be said of most currencies. We remainunconvinced that there will be a more autonomous bid for GBP: at the moment it simply appears less ugly.Nevertheless we see little sign that the EUR is likely to reverse this; the pair now holds just above key uptrendsupport at 0.8740, a break of which would target the 0.8600 level.

EURCHFEURCHF remains under pressure as there appears little sign of progress over the European debt crisis. We see littlechance that the stress tests will ease concerns: a resolution looks to require a more holistic approach to Europeandebt – which there appears little appetite for as yet. Things may have to get worse before the get better.

EURNOKSofter oil prices have done little for the NOK, but more importantly, with little upcoming data, EURNOK remainshostage to developments within the Eurozone. With little sign of progress, the bias is for a move back towards thetop of the range at 7.95

EURSEKSEK follows a similar pattern to NOK: risk appetite and Eurozone stresses are driving the pair more than anydomestic concerns. The recent high at 9.27 is back within sight, with stops likely above there.

USD Bloc

USDCAD

USDCAD has recovered 75 pips back up to 0.9614 following Bernanke’s less dovish commentary on Thursday.Bernanke has appeared to have used the second day of his semi-annual testimony to balance things out a bit, re-iterating our contention late Wednesday that while further easing remains possible pending a renewed economicdeterioration, they seem improbable. However, 1m implieds have begun to recede, pricing in further rangeboundbehaviour. Looking ahead, the path for energy prices will more likely determine the path forward for CAD.

AUDUSD

AUD has fallen as an Australian bank called for more significant rate cuts from the RBA over the next 12 months, butwe are more optimistic. The travails of the globe's two most important currencies mean that investors areincreasingly running out of places to park their cash. We continue to see inflows into commodity currencies and weexpect that dips in the AUD are likely to remain shallow as it remains supported by the sovereign bid and by mininginvestment inflows.

NZDUSDKiwi continues to outperform its cross-Tasman cousin as relative expectations for rate hikes are repriced. WhileNZDUSD remains at risk from further risk aversion, we continue to see outperformance against AUD and Europeancurrencies as insurance and sovereign inflows lend support.







FX Forecasts*USD Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

EUR/USD 1.50 1.55 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.34

USD/JPY 78 83 85 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 114

USD/CHF 0.83 0.83 0.90 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.09

GBP/USD 1.65 1.68 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.70

USD/CAD 0.98 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.21

AUD/USD 1.09 1.13 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.78

NZD/USD 0.82 0.84 0.81 0.80 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.56

USD/SEK 5.93 5.48 5.93 6.21 6.67 6.67 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.94

USD/NOK 4.98 4.77 5.07 5.26 5.56 5.56 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.07

EUR Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

EUR/JPY 117 129 123 126 128 128 124 124 124 124 153

EUR/GBP 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.79

EUR/CHF 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.30 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.46

EUR/SEK 8.90 8.50 8.60 8.70 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.30EUR/NOK 7.47 7.40 7.35 7.37 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 6.80

EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46

Central Europe Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/PLN 2.60 2.48 2.69 2.75 2.81 2.78 2.85 2.77 2.85 2.85 2.65

EUR/CZK 24.3 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.1

EUR/HUF 275 275 269 265 265 260 260 255 260 260 250

USD/ZAR 6.80 6.60 6.55 6.60 6.50 6.50 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.69

USD/TRY 1.52 1.50 1.56 1.59 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.67 1.69 1.69 1.54

EUR/RON 4.20 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.15 4.10 4.20 4.20 4.10 3.95 3.90

USD/RUB 27.51 27.25 27.86 27.97 28.08 27.65 28.19 27.75 29.07 27.75 27.75

EUR/PLN 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.60 3.70 3.70 3.55

USD/UAH 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4

EUR/RSD 100 100 98 97 96 95 93 92 91 90 85

Asia Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/SGD 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 -----

USD/MYR 2.95 2.90 2.87 2.85 2.83 2.80 2.77 2.75 2.73 2.70 -----

USD/IDR 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 7800 7800 7800 -----

USD/THB 29.80 29.50 29.30 29.00 28.70 28.50 28.30 28.00 28.00 28.00 -----

USD/PHP 42.50 42.00 41.50 41.00 40.50 40.00 39.50 39.00 39.00 39.00 -----

USD/HKD 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 -----

USD/RMB 6.40 6.31 6.25 6.21 6.17 6.13 6.23 6.20 6.17 6.15 -----

USD/TWD 28.00 27.50 27.00 26.70 26.50 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 -----

USD/KRW 1060 1050 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 1000 1000 1000 -----

USD/INR 45.50 45.00 44.50 44.00 43.50 43.00 43.00 42.50 42.50 42.00 -----

USD/VND 20500 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 -----

LATAM Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/ARS 4.18 4.25 4.34 4.43 4.51 4.60 4.69 4.78 4.86 4.95 -----

USD/BRL 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62 -----

USD/CLP 450 435 425 430 435 440 442 445 447 450 -----

USD/MXN 11.40 11.10 11.00 10.90 11.00 11.10 11.10 11.17 11.25 11.30 -----

USD/COP 1730 1690 1690 1700 1710 1720 1725 1730 1740 1750 -----

USD/VEF 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 -----

USD/PEN 2.70 2.65 2.63 2.63 2.64 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.70 -----

Others Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD Index 72.30 70.76 74.87 77.62 80.72 80.72 82.99 82.99 82.99 82.99 83.88

*End Quarter







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Daily FX Str Europe 15 July 2011