Upload
trinhque
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Alikodra HS. 1999. Kebijakan pengelolaan hutan mangrove dilihat dari lingkungan hidup. Prosiding Seminar Mangrove VI Ekosistem Mangrove; Pekanbaru; 15-18 September 1999. Panitia Program MAB Indonesia-LIPI. hlm 33-43.
Amman HM, Duraiappah AK. 2001. Land tenure and conflict resolution: a
game theoretic approach in the Narok District in Kenya. Working Paper No. 37. International Institut for Environ. and Develop. London and Institut for Environ. Studies Amsterdam.
Anna S. 2003. Model embedded dinamik ekonomi interaksi perikanan-
pencemaran [disertasi]. Bogor. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Program Pasca Sarjana.
Anderson K, Ursin E. 1976. A multispecies extension to the Beverton and Holt
theory of fishing, with account of phosphorous circulation and primary production. The Danish Institute of Fisheries and Marine Research.
Arenas DA, Huertas JB. 1986. Hydrology and water balance of small islands :
a review of existing knowledge. Technical Documents in Hydrology. UNESCO. Paris.
[BAKOSURTANAL] Badan Koordinasi Survey dan Pemetaan Nasional. 2001.
Peta liputan lahan Kabupaten Bengkalis. Bengen DG. 2001a. Sinopsis Ekosistem dan Sumberdaya Alam Pesisir dan
Laut. Bogor. Pusat Kajian Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan IPB. Bengen DG. 2001b. Pedoman Teknis Pengenalan Dan Pengelolaan Ekosistem
Mangrove. Bogor. Pusat Kajian Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan IPB. [BPS] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Bengkalis. 2003. Bengkalis dalam
Angka 2003. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1986. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia 1985-1986. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1988. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia 1987-1988. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1990. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia 1989-1990. Jakarta.
131
[BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1991. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi Indonesia. Jakarta.
[BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1992. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1993. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1994. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1995. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia 1995. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1996. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
di Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1997. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1998. Indeks Harga Konsumen di Ibukota Propinsi
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 1999. Indeks Harga Konsumen 44 Kota di Indonesia.
Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 2000. Indeks Harga Konsumen di 43 Kota di
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 2001. Indeks Harga Konsumen di 43 Kota di
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPS] Biro Pusat Statistik. 2002. Indeks Harga Konsumen di 43 Kota di
Indonesia. Jakarta. [BPPT] Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi. 1995. Pengembangan
Prototipe Wilayah Pesisir dan Marin: Laporan Akhir Pelaksanaan Proyek MREP Jawa Timur dan Lombok Tahun 1994/1995. Jakarta.
Brander JA, Taylor MS. 1998. The simple economics of Easter Island: a
Ricardo-Malthus model of renewable resource use. American Econ. Rev. 88(1):119-138.
Brent RJ. 1997. Applied Cost-Benefit Analysis. UK. Edward Elgar.
132
Briguglio L. 1995. Small island states and their economic vulnerabilities. World Develop. 23:1615-1632.
Brown B, Brennan J, Grosslein M,. Heyersdahl E, Hennemuth R. 1976. The
effect of fishing on the marine finfish biomass in the Northwest Atlantic from the Gulf of Maine to Cope Hatteras. Int. Comm. Northwest. Atl Fish. Res. Bul. 12:49-68.
Buchary EA. 1999. Evaluating the effect of the 1980 trawl ban in the java sea,
Indonesia: an Ecosystem-based approach [thesis]. Vancouver. University of British Columbia.
Casagrandi R, Rinaldi S. 2002. A theoretical approach to tourism sustainability.
Austria. IASA Report IR-02-051. Cassel RM. 1993. Tropical rainforest: subsistence values compared with logging
royalties. Di dalam: Walsh AC, editor; Development That Works! Lesson from Asia-Pasific. North Parlmerston. Massey Univ. Develop. Studies Monograph. 3:C3.1-3.6.
Chansang H. 1979. Correlation between commercial shrimp yields and
mangroves. Proceedings of The Third National Seminar on Mangrove Ecol. (2):744-753.
Chiang AC. 1992. Elements of Dynamic Optimization. New York. McGraw-
Hill. Clark CW. 1985. Bioeconomics Modelling and Fisheries Management. New
York. J Wiley. Clark CW. 1990. Mathematical Bioeconomic The Optimal Management of
Renewable Resources. New York. J Wiley. Clark C, Munro G. 1975. The economics of fishing and modern capital theory:
a simplified approach. J. Environ. Econ. Man. 2:92-106. Clarke RP, Yoshimoto SS, Pooley SG. 1992. A bioeconomic analysis of the
North–Western Hawaiian Island lobster fishery. Mar. Res. Econ. 7(2):115-140.
Conrad JM, Clark CW. 1987. Natural Resource Economics, Notes and Problem.
New York. Cambridge University Press. Copes P. 1972. Factor rents, sole-ownership and the optimum level of fisheries
exploitation. Manchester School Econ. Soc. Studies 40(2):145-163.
133
Cuningham S, Dunn MR, Whitmarsh D. 1985. Fisheries Economics, an Introduction. London. Mansell Publishing.
Dahuri R. 1998. Pendekatan ekonomi-ekologis pembangunan pulau-pulau kecil
berkelanjutan. Di dalam: Seminar dan Lokakarya Pengelolaan Pulau-Pulau Kecil di Indonesia. Kerjasama Depdagri dengan BPPT dan CRMP USAID. Jakarta. 7-10 Desember 1998.
Dahuri R, Rais J, Ginting SP, Sitepu MJ. 1996. Pengelolaan Sumberdaya
Wilayah Pesisir dan Lautan Secara Terpadu. Jakarta. Pradnya Paramitha. Darsidi A, Liang DH. 1986. Jalur hijau hutan mangrove dalam konteks tata guna
hutan pantai. Di dalam: Diskusi Panel Daya Guna dan Batas Lebar Jalur Hijau Hutan Mangrove; Ciloto; 27 Februari-1 Maret 1986. Panitia Program MAB Indonesia-LIPI. hlm 79-83.
[DKP] Departemen Kelautan dan Perikanan. 2000. SK Menteri Kelautan dan
Perikanan No. 41 Tahun 2000. Pedoman Umum Pengelolaan Pulau-Pulau Kecil yang Berkelanjutan dan Berbasis Masyarakat. Jakarta.
Dinas Kependudukan dan Tenaga Kerja Kabupaten Bengkalis. 2004. Media
Informasi Data Elektronik Pemerintah Daerah Kabupaten Bengkalis. Dinas Perikanan dan Kelautan Kabupaten Bengkalis. 2002. Potensi Sumberdaya
Perikanan dan Kelautan Kabupaten Bengkalis. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1986. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1985. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1987. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1986. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1988. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1987. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1989. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1988. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1990. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1989. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1991. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1990. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1992. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1991.
134
Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1993. Buku Tahunan Statistik Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1992.
Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1994. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1993. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1995. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1994. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1996. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1995. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1997. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1996. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1998. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1997. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 1999. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1998. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 2000. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 1999. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 2001. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 2000. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 2002. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 2001. Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tingkat I Riau. 2003. Buku Tahunan Statistik
Perikanan Tingkat Propinsi Tahun 2002. Djajadiningrat S. 1997. Pengantar Ekonomi Lingkungan. Jakarta. Pustaka
LP3ES. Eriyatno. 1999. Ilmu Sistem: Meningkatkan Mutu dan Efektivitas Manajemen.
Bogor. IPB Press. [FAO] Food and Agricultural Organization. 1997. Technical Guidelines for
Responsible Fisheries. Roma. Aquaculture Development. Fauzi A. 1998. The management of competing multi species fisheries: a case of
a small pelagic fishery on the north coast of Central Java [thesis]. Vancouver, Canada. Simon Fraser University. Departement of Economics.
135
Fauzi A. 2001. An overview of economic valuation techniques: a highlight on information needed for their application in developing countries. Di dalam: Feoli E, Nauen CE, editors. Proceedings of the INCO-DEV International Workshop on Information Systems for Policy and Technical Support in Fisheries and Aquaculture; Los Banos, Philippine; 5-7 June 2000; ACP-EU Fisheries Research Report No. 8. Brussels, Belgium.
Fauzi A. 2002a. Lecture Note Analisis Sistem Dinamik. Bogor. Program
Pascasarjana IPB. Program Studi Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan.
Fauzi A. 2002b. Valuasi ekonomi sumberdaya pulau-pulau kecil. Di dalam:
Seminar Sehari Peluang Investasi Pulau-Pulau Kecil di Indonesia; Jakarta; 10 Oktober 2002.
Fauzi A. 2004. Ekonomi Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan: Teori dan
Aplikasi. Jakarta. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Fauzi A. 2005. Overfishing: apa dan mengapa. Di dalam: Fauzi A, editor. Kebijakan Perikanan dan Kelautan, Isu Sintesis dan Gagasan. Jakarta. Gramedia Pustaka Utama. Hlm 28-33.
Fauzi A, Anna S. 2005. Pemodelan Sumberdaya Perikanan dan Kelautan. Jakarta. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Graham M. 1935. Modern theory of exploiting a fishery and application to the
North Sea trawling. J.Cons. Int. Explor. Mer. 10:264-274. Grant WE, Pedersen EK, Martin SL. 1997. Ecology and Natural Resource
Management : System Analysis and Simulation. New York. J. Wiley. Hall CAS, Day JR JW. 1977. Systems and models: terms and basic principles.
Di dalam: Hall CAS, Day JR JW, editors. Ecosystem Modelling in Theory and Practice: An Introduction with Case Histories. New York. J Wiley. hlm 6-36.
Hanesson R. 1987. The effect of discount rate on the optimal exploitation of
renewable resources. Mar. Res. Econ. 3:319-329. Hardjowigeno S, Widiatmaka. 2001. Kesesuaian Lahan dan Perencanaan
Tataguna Tanah. Bogor. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Fakultas Pertanian. Hardin G. 1968. The tragedy of the commons. Science 162:1243-1248. Hartwick J. 1990. Natural resources, national accounting, and economic
depreciation. J. Public Econ. 43:291-304.
136
Hess AL. 1990. Overview: sustainable development and environmental management of small island. Di dalam: Beller W, d’Ayala P, Hein P, editors. Sustainable Development and Environmental Management of Small Islands. Paris. UNESCO. hlm 3-14.
Hilborn R, Walters CJ. 1992. Quatitative Fisheries Stock Assessment. Choice,
Dynamics and Uncertainty. London. Chapman & Hall Inc. Holling CS. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological system. Ann. Rev.
Ecol. Syst. 4:1-23. Ilyas. 1987. Petunjuk teknis bagi pengoperasian usaha pembesaran udang
windu. Seri Pengembangan Hasil Penelitian Perikanan. Jakarta. Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian.
Imran N, Bengen DG, Nikijuluw VP. 2002. Sistem pengelolaan ekosistem
mangrove di wilayah pesisir dan kepulauan. Di dalam: Konferensi Nasional III Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan Indonesia; Bali; 21-24 Mei 2002.
Jaya INS. 2002. Aplikasi Sistem Informasi Geografis Untuk Kehutanan:
Penuntun Praktis Menggunakan Arc Info dan Arc View. Bogor. IPB Press.
Jorgensen SE. 1988. Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling. Amsterdam.
Elsevier Science. Kapetsky JM. 1982. Mangrove, fisheries and aquaculture. Report on the
Session of the Advisory Committee on Marine Resources Research. FAO Fish. Rep. 338:suppl. 18 p.
Kawaroe M, Bengen DG, Eidman M, Boer M. 2001. Kontribusi ekosistem
mangrove terhadap struktur komunitas ikan di pantai utara Kabupaten Subang Jawa Barat. J. Pesisir dan Lautan 3:12-25.
Kay R, Alder J. 1999. Coastal Planning and Management. London. E & FN
SPON An Imprint of Routledge. Keputusan Presiden RI No. 32 Tahun 1990. Tentang Pengelolaan Kawasan
Lindung. Khairuddin T. 2003. Telaah dinamika dan seleksi kawasan konservasi mangrove
di Kabupaten Bengkalis [thesis]. Bogor. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Program Pasca Sarjana.
137
Khazali M. 2002. Kajian partisipasi masyarakat dalam pengelolaan mangrove (studi kasus di Desa Karangson, Kecamatan Indramayu, Kabupaten Indramayu, Propinsi Jawa Barat. Jurnal PKSPL-IPB 4(3):29-42.
King M. 1995. Fisheries Biology, Assessment and Management. Great Britain.
Fishing News Book. Koesoebiono. 1996. Ekologi Wilayah Pesisir. Pelatihan Perencanaan dan
Pengelolaan Wilayah Pesisir Secara Terpadu. Kerjasama PPLH-IPB dengan Dirjen Bangda Depdagri dan Asian Development Bank.
[KSP-UIR] Kelompok Studi Perairan Universitas Islam Riau. 2001. Kajian
Penataan Kawasan Perlindungan Ikan (Fish Sanctuary) di Pulau Bengkalis Propinsi Riau. Kerjasama dengan Co-Fish Project Bengkalis Riau.
Kula E. 1984. Derivation of social time preference rates for the United States
and Canada. Quaterly J. Econ. 99:873-882. Maanema M. 2003. Model pemanfaatan pulau-pulau kecil (studi kasus di gugus
Pulau PariKepulauan Seribu [disertasi]. Bogor. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Program Pasca Sarjana.
Manetsch TJ, Park GL. 1977. System Analysis and Simulatioon with Aplication
to Economic and Social Systems. USA. Michigan Univ. Marimin. 2002. Teori dan Aplikasi Sistem Pakar Dalam Teknologi Manajerial.
Bogor. Kerjasama IPB Press dan Program Pascasarjana IPB. Martosubroto P, Naamin N. 1977. Relationships between tidal forest
(mangroves) and commercial shrimp production in Indonesia. Marine Research in Indonesia (18):81-86.
May R, Beddington J, Clark C, Holt S, Laws R. 1979. Management of
multispecies fisheries. Science 205:267-277. Muhammadi, Amirullah E, Soesilo B. 2001. Analisis Sistem Dinamis
Lingkungan Hidup, Sosial, Ekonomi, Manajemen. Jakarta. UMJ Press. Naamin N. 1990. Penggunaan lahan mangrove untuk budidaya tambak:
keuntungan dan kerugiannya. Prosiding Seminar IV Ekosistem Mangrove; Bandar Lampung; 7–9 Agustus 1990. Panitia Nasional Program MAB-LIPI.
Newell R, Pizer W. 2001. Discounting the distant future: how much do
uncertain rates increase valuation? Resources for the future. Washington D.C.
138
Odum HT. 1992. Ekologi Sistem: Suatu Pengantar. Supriharyono, Praseno K, Murwani R, penerjemah. Yogjakarta. Gadjah Mada University Press.
Ongkosono OSR. 1998. Permasalahan dalam pengelolaan pulau-pulau kecil. Di
dalam: Seminar dan Lokakarya Pengelolaan Pulau-Pulau Kecil di Indonesia; Jakarta; 7-10 Desember 1998. Kerjasama Depdagri dengan BPPT dan CRMP USAID.
Panayatou T. 1985. Small-scale Fisheries in Asia: A Socio-Economic Analysis
and Policy. Ottawa, Canada. DRC. Pattanayak SK, Kramer RA. 1999. Worth of watersheds: a producer surplus
approach for valuing drought mitigation in Eastern Indonesia. North Carolina, USA. Center for Economics Research, Research Triangle Institut, Research Triangle Park.
Pauly D. 1979. Theory and Management of Tropical Multispecies Stocks. A
Review with Emphasis on the Southeast Asia Demersal Fishery. ICLARM Study Review I .
Paw JN, Chua TE. 1989. An assessment of the ecological and economis impact
of mangrove conversion in Southeast Asia. Marine Pollution Bull. 20(7): 335-343.
[PKSPL-IPB] Pusat Kajian Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan Institut Pertanian
Bogor. 2000. Atlas Sumberdaya Wilayah Pesisir Daratan Propinsi Riau. Pekanbaru. Kerjasama dengan BAPPEDA Propinsi Riau.
[PKSPL-IPB] Pusat Kajian Sumberdaya Pesisir dan Lautan Institut Pertanian
Bogor. 2001. Kebijakan Pelestarian Ekosistem Mangrove sebagai Jalur Hijau Pantai (Green Belt) dalam Konteks Era Otonomi Daerah. Jakarta. Kerjasama dengan Kantor Menteri Negara Lingkungan Hidup.
Platt SR. 1968. Strong inference. Science 146:347-353. Poernomo A. 1988. Pembuatan Tambak Udang di Indonesia. Maros. Balai
Penelitian Perikanan Budidaya Pantai. Poerwowidagdo SJ. 2001. Dasar Logika. Surabaya. Hang Tuah University
Press. Pope J. 1979. Stock Assessment in Multispecies Fisheries with Special
Reference to Trawl Fishery in the Gulf of Thailand. South China Sea Fish. Dev. Coop Programme. SCS/DEV/79/19.
Prahasta E. 2001. Konsep-Konsep Dasar Sistem Informasi Geografis. Bandung.
Informatika.
139
Reksosudarmo B. 1995. The contruction of a bioeconomic model of Indonesia flying fishery. Mar. Res. Econ. 10:357-372.
Retraubun ASW. 2003. Prospek pengembangan pulau-pulau kecil. Di dalam:
Semiloka Penentuan Defenisi dan Pendataan Pulau di Indonesia. Jakarta; 26 Mei 2003.
Ruitenbeek HJ. 1992. Mangrove Management: an Economic Analysis of
Management Options with a Focus on Bintuni Bay, Irian Jaya. Jakarta and Halifax; Environmental Management Development in Indonesia Project (EMDI) Environ. Reports 8.
Salm RV, Clark JR. 2000. Marine and Coastal Protected Areas: A Guide For
Planners and Managers. Gland, Switzerland. Inter. Union for Conser. of Nature and Natural Res.
Saralisa Konsultan. 2002. Analisis dampak lingkungan: reklamasi Pantai Andam
Dewi dan pembangunan pelabuhan penumpang Bengkalis [laporan akhir]. Kerjasama dengan Dinas Pekerjaan Umum Pemukiman dan Prasarana Wilayah Kabupaten Bengkalis.
Schaefer M. 1954. Some aspects of dynamics of population important to the
management of commercial marine fisheries. Bull. Inter-Am. Trop. Tuna. Comm. 1:27-56.
Sekretariat Negara. 1990. Keputusan Presiden No. 32 Tentang Pengelolaan
Kawasan Lindung. Smith SJ. 1993. Risk evaluation and biological reference point for fisheries
management: a review. Di dalam: Kruse G, Raggers DM, Marasco RJ, Pautzke C, Quinn TJ, editors. Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Population. Alaska Sea Grant, Anchorage. hlm. 339-353.
Soemarno. 1986. Peranan jalur hijau mangrove terhadap pelestarian sumberdaya
perikanan. Di dalam: Diskusi Panel Daya Guna dan Batas Lebar Jalur Hijau Hutan Mangrove; Ciloto; 27 Februari-1 Maret 1986. Panitia Program MAB Indonesia-LIPI.
Stark A. 1971. A computer programme to estimate fishing power by the method
of fitting constants. J. du Conseil Inter. et Explor. du Mer. 33:478-482. Sugandhy A. 1998. Pendekatan ekosistem dalam perencanaan dan pengelolaan
daerah pesisir dan pantai. Di dalam: Seminar Teknik Pantai Tema “Masalah Pantai di Indonesia dan Usaha-usaha Penanganan Inter-institusi Yang Pernah dan Perlu Dilakukan”. Yogjakarta. 10-11 Desember 1998.
140
Suryadi K, Ramdhani MA. 2000. Sistem Pendukung Keputusan: Suatu Wacana Struktural Idealisasi dan Implementasi Konsep Pengambilan Keputusan. Bandung. Remaja Rosdakarya.
Suwelo IS, Maanan. 1986. Jalur hijau hutan mangrove sebagai wilayah
konservasi daerah pantai. Di dalam: Diskusi Panel Daya Guna dan Batas Lebar Jalur Hijau Hutan Mangrove; Ciloto; 27 Februari-1 Maret 1986. Panitia Program MAB Indonesia-LIPI. hlm 61-71.
Sydsaeter K, Hammond PJ. 1995. Mathematics for Economics Analysis. New
Jersey. Prentice Hall Englewood Cliffs. UNESCO. 1991. Hydrology and Water Resources of Small Islands: A Practical
Guide. Falkland A, editor and Custodio E. with contribution from Diaz A. Arenas and Simler L. Paris. Studies and Report on Hydrology No. 49.
Watson R, Gelchu A, Pauly D. 2001. Mapping fisheries landings with emphasis
on the North Atlantic. Di dalam: Zeller D, Watson R, Pauly D, editors. Fisheries Impact on the North Atlantic Ecosystems: Catch, Effort, and National/Regional Data Sets. Vancouver. University of British Columbia. Fisheries Centre Research Reports Vol 9 No. 3.
Wilen JE. 1976. Common property resources and the dynamics of
overexploitation: the case of the North Pasific fur seal. Vancouver. University of British Columbia. Departement of Economics Research Paper No. 3.
Winardi. 1999. Pengantar Tentang Teori Sistem dan Analisis Sistem. Bandung.
Mandar Maju.
141
Lampiran 1. Deskripsi Ikan
a. Ikan bawal hitam
Nama Indonesia : Bawal Hitam Nama Inggris : Black Pomfret Nama Latin : Formio niger Deskripsi : Ordo: Percomorphi, famili: Formionidae, genus: Formio.
Bentuk tubuh ikan ini lebar dan gepeng. Bentuk sisik sikloid, sisik garis rusuk kurang lebih 100. Sirip punggung berjari-jari kuat, 2 sirip yang terpisah, yang dimuka bejari-jari keras dan yang di belakang berjari-jari lemah, kadang dengan satu jari-jari keras di muka. Sirip dubur berjari-jari keras 1 dan 35-40 berjari-jari lemah. Sirip ekor bercagak kuat, terdapat sisik duri pada bagian batang ekor. Sirip perut kecil dan tidak terdapat pada ikan dewasa. Termasuk ikan buas, makanannya ikan-ikan kecil, dan Krustasea. Hidup di perairan agak jauh dari pantai sampai kedalaman 100 m. Bergerombol, kadang-kadang bersama-sama ikan layang di sekitar rumpon. Warna tubuh bagian atas abu-abu sawo matang, sedikit keputihan pada bagian bawahnya. Ukuran: ikan bawal hitam panjangnya bisa mencapai 30 cm dan umumnya tertangkap pada ukuran 20 cm
Daerah Sebar : Daerah penyebaran ikan bawal hitam hampir terdapat di seluruh perairan Indonesia terutama Laut Jawa, Selat Malaka, sepanjang perairan Kalimantan, Sulawesi Selatan, Laut Arafuru, ke utara sampai Teluk Bengal, Teluk Siam, sepanjang Laut Cina Selatan dan Philipina. Pada umumnya ikan ini hidup pada dasar perairan yang berlumpur, terutama di daerah muara-muara sungai.
b. Ikan bawal putih
Nama Indonesia : Bawal Putih
Nama Inggris : Silver Pomfret
Nama Latin : Pampus argentus
142
Deskripsi : Ordo: Percomorphi, Sub. Ordo: Stromatoidea, famili: Stromateidae, genus: Pampus. Bentuk tubuh ikan ini sangat lebar seperti ketupat gepeng. Bentuk sisik sikloid, sangat kecil, gampang dikelupas dan sisik-sisik ini meluas sampai dasar semua sirip. Sirip punggung tidak sama panjang, asalnya di depan pertengahan badan, tetapi menjadi sirip pektoral, didahului oleh 5-10 duri pendek yang menyerupai pisau, berjari-jari lemah 38 sampai 43. Sirip dubur tidak sama panjang, berjari-jari lemah 38-43. Sirip ekor bercagak kuat dengan lembaran bawah lebih panjang. Termasuk pemakan plankton, makanannya plankton kasar (invertebrata). Hidup di perairan yang dasarnya lumpur sampai kedalaman 100 m, sering masuk air payau dan membentuk gerombolan besar. Warna tubuhnya abu keunguan di bagian atas, dan putih perak di bagian bawah. Sirip-siripnya sedikit gelap. Ukuran: umumnya panjang ikan bawal putih yang tertangkap adalah 15-20 cm dan panjangnya bisa mencapai 29 cm
Daerah Sebar : Ikan bawal putih hidup pada perairan pantai, payau bahkan dapat hidup di perairan tawar. Jenis ikan ini hidup di dasar perairan yang keadaan dasarnya berlumpur, sampai kedalaman 100 m dan cenderung berada pada kedalaman 15-25 m. Penyebaran ikan ini meliputi pantai timur Indonesia, Laut Jawa, sebagian timur Sumatera, pantai Laut Cina Selatan, Philipina, bagian barat Teluk Persia dan bagian Utara Jepang.
c. Ikan Kuro/senangin (Polynemus spp/ Eleutheronema sp)
Nama Indonesia : Kuro/Senangin
Nama Inggris : Giant threadfish
Nama Latin : Eleutheronema tetradactylum
Deskripsi : Ordo: Percesoces, famili: Polynemidae, genus : Eleutheronema. Badan memanjang, gepeng. Moncong menonjol ke depan, tumpul, mulut lebar, di bawah moncong, ditumbuhi gigi-gigi kecil. Sirip punggung pertama bejari-jari keras 8, sedang sirip punggung kedua 1-2, dan 13-17 lemah. Sirip dubur berjari-jari keras keras 2 dan 15-17 lemah. Garis rusuk bersisik 78-80. Di bawah sirip dada terdapat 4 jari-jari sirip berupa serabut yang satu sama lain terpisah, dapat mencapai sirip perut. Termasuk ikan buas, makanannya ikan-ikan kecil, udang-udangan, organisme dasar. Hidup di dasar, daerah pantai dangkal,
143
kadang-kaang masuk sungai-sungai besar. Warna bagian atas putih-perak kehijauan (perak keabu-abuan), putih kekuningan bagian bawah. Sirip punggung, ekor, abu-abu sedikit kekuningan dengan pinggiran gelap. Sirip dubur, perut, kuning jeruk. Ukuran: ukuran tubuh ikan ini berkisar antara 25 - 200 cm.
Daerah Sebar : Daerah penyebaran ikan kuro/senangin adalah perairantropis dan subtropis. Di Indonesia potensi sumberdaya ikan kuro/senangin terdapat di perairan utara Jawa, timur Sumatera, sepanjang Kalimantan, Sulawesi Selatan, Laut Arafuru, ke utara sampai Teluk Benggala dan Teluk Siam. Sedangkan di luar Indonesia terdapat di perairan sepanjang Laut Cina Selatan ke selatan sampai Queensland.
144
Lampiran 2. Analisis data hasil tangkapan dari masing-masing alat tangkap yang digunakan dalam analisis
Share Pukat Pantai (Ton) Share Jaring Insang Hanyut (Ton) Share Jermal (Ton) Tahun Bawal
Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total Produksi
Bawal Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total
Produksi Bawal Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total
Produksi Grand Total
1985 4.77 3.63 8.76 17.160 91.71 141.58 304.59 537.87 17.79 3.63 3.64 25.05 580.09
1986 5.59 4.03 11.22 20.843 94.16 175.24 323.86 593.27 22.08 6.03 4.38 32.49 646.61
1987 7.57 4.92 9.90 22.395 92.96 192.18 353.55 638.69 27.15 10.96 6.63 44.73 705.82
1988 8.57 5.49 12.14 26.194 102.42 160.86 376.79 640.07 45.14 16.43 5.14 66.71 732.97
1989 7.16 6.33 9.81 23.305 128.07 167.63 406.99 702.69 48.94 19.09 9.81 77.84 803.83
1990 6.63 6.94 9.77 23.342 127.32 193.65 444.74 765.71 47.27 17.01 6.77 71.05 860.10
1991 8.22 9.01 14.60 31.828 135.06 160.10 377.14 672.30 47.24 19.67 13.60 80.52 784.64
1992 9.09 7.99 11.83 28.906 139.26 191.18 419.79 750.23 61.63 21.32 15.90 98.85 877.99
1993 8.16 9.10 13.12 30.371 151.42 213.88 406.16 771.47 63.54 25.54 17.12 106.20 908.04
1994 8.55 7.21 16.47 32.230 143.63 199.74 534.05 877.42 64.94 21.10 15.47 101.51 1,011.16
1995 6.48 8.12 14.96 29.555 140.97 203.06 543.07 887.10 42.96 24.40 24.55 91.91 1,008.57
1996 7.12 10.91 15.66 33.689 158.12 244.41 459.38 861.92 45.41 28.69 20.52 94.62 990.23
1997 9.86 15.24 21.93 47.031 186.14 236.49 497.41 920.04 75.11 40.50 34.94 150.55 1,117.62
1998 10.82 16.49 22.09 49.402 187.43 251.75 542.03 981.21 79.05 30.74 43.22 153.01 1,183.63
1999 7.26 17.57 21.67 46.503 157.57 245.81 479.18 882.56 45.32 37.92 46.64 129.88 1,058.94
2000 6.43 14.56 16.97 37.957 183.58 274.41 485.65 943.64 50.30 44.54 35.71 130.55 1,112.14
2001 9.45 14.60 19.15 43.201 196.63 264.15 552.26 1,013.05 45.00 39.34 38.25 122.59 1,178.84
2002 11.87 18.94 36.07 66.886 160.63 274.68 825.84 1,261.15 49.16 49.45 45.61 144.22 1,472.25
Sumber Data Olahan dari: Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tk I Riau 1986-2003
148
Lampiran 4. Gambar alat tangkap yang digunakan dalam analisis
Pukat pantai (beach seine)
Jaring insang hanyut (drift gill net)
149
Jermal (stow nets)
150
Lampiran 5. Analisis CYP
file 11 E:\shazam\CYP.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\CYP.txt sample 1 17 read(11) E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 / skiplines=1 5 VARIABLES AND 17 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1
print E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1
67.55615 136.22122 0.85868 -0.15236 -0.06009 68.66508 145.48058 0.94168 -0.06009 -0.08464 76.81550 146.03480 0.91884 -0.08464 0.05724 69.21929 138.26852 1.05891 0.05724 0.15198 69.04922 137.58485 1.16414 0.15198 0.22711 68.53563 139.94713 1.25497 0.22711 0.09419 71.41150 141.13742 1.09876 0.09419 0.23048 69.72592 146.11855 1.25920 0.23048 0.17282 76.39263 150.56497 1.18865 0.17282 0.30987 74.17234 162.19032 1.36325 0.30987 0.13616 88.01798 177.87288 1.14586 0.13616 0.09715 89.85490 177.20515 1.10203 0.09715 0.24644 87.35025 189.59599 1.27946 0.24644 0.14637
102.24574 209.59915 1.15763 0.14637 -0.01369 107.35341 214.28159 0.98641 -0.01369 0.03930 106.92818 217.84867 1.04008 0.03930 0.06088 110.92049 228.80935 1.06278 0.06088 0.22222
STAT E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 / pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUME 17 82.601 15.637 0 244.500 67.556 110.9200 E2 17 168.16 0 32.4390 1052.300 136.220 228.8100 CPUE 17 1.111 0.1374 0.019 0.85868 1.3630LNCPUE 17 0.098 0.1259 0.016 -0.15236 0.3099LNU1 17 0.120 0.1113 0.0124 -0.08464 0.3099
CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 17 OBSERVATIONS E 1.0000 E2 0.98369 1.0000 CPUE -0.10168 -0.25399E-02 1.0000 LNCPUE -0.72303E-01 0.21128E-01 0.9976 1.0000 LNU1 -0.38478E-01 -0.66128E-01 0.5041 0.5327 1.0000
E E2 CPUE LNCPUE LNU1
151
OLS LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / rstat anova
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 2 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 17 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LNU1 NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 17
R-SQUARE = 0.2897 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1883 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.10058E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.10029 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.14081 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.11964 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 16.6235
MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.11832E-01 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = -4.4406 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - LOG SC = -4.2936 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.12213E-01 HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = 0.11962E-01 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.12801E-01 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.11206E-01 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - SC = 0.13656E-01 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - AIC = 0.11788E-01
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM MEAN
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.57442E-01 2. 0.28721E-01 2.856ERROR 0.14081 14. 0.10058E-01 P-VALUETOTAL 0.19825 16. 0.12390E-01 0.091
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM ZERO
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.30076 3. 0.10025 9.968 ERROR 0.14081 14. 0.10058E-01 P-VALUE TOTAL 0.44156 17. 0.25974E-01 0.001
152
PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY
VARIABLE NAME
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT
STANDARD ERROR
T-RATIO 14 DF
P-VALUE
CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS
LNCPUE 0.47256 0.1992 2.372 0.033 0.535 0.5343 0.3855 E2 -0.00026565 0.0007731 -
0.3436 0.736 -0.091 -0.0774 -0.3734
CONSTANT 0.11819 0.1333 0.8868 0.390 0.231 0.0000 0.9879 DURBIN-WATSON = 2.1678 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.3033 RHO = -0.19235 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.27756E-15 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.10058E-01 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 1.3115 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.2897 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 7 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC =
0.3963
*plot LnU1 / time nowide *plot LnCPUE / time nowide *plot E2 / time nowide
Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 17
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 3 CURRENT PAR= 500 NOTE..TEST LAG ORDER AUTOMATICALLY SET
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 17
VARIABLE : LNU1 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16
NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.8696 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.7023 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.9066 3.78 AIC = -4.514 SC = -4.418 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.9187 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.5825 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.4216 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.3950 5.34 AIC = -4.390 SC = -4.245
153
VARIABLE : LNCPUE DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16
NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -8.1652 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.6937 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.7851 3.78 AIC = -4.589 SC = -4.492 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -7.7235 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.2552 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.3956 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.4464 5.34 AIC = -4.472 SC = -4.327
VARIABLE : E2 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST 1.2816 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST 1.3169 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 6.4678 3.78 AIC = 3.984 SC = 4.081 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -2.3900 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.1071 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 6.2455 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 2.7693 5.34 AIC = 3.871 SC = 4.016
*Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / type=df ndiff=1 nlag=4 *Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / type=df ndiff=2 nlag=4 auto LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / rstat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 3 CURRENT PAR= 500 DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LNU1 NOTE..R-SQUARE,ANOVA,RESIDUALS DONE ON ORIGINAL VARS
LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION 17 OBSERVATIONS BY COCHRANE-ORCUTT TYPE PROCEDURE WITH CONVERGENCE = 0.00100
154
ITERATION RHO LOG L.F. SSE 1 0.00000 16.6235 0.14081 2 -0.19235 17.0340 0.13387 3 -0.28103 17.0965 0.13254 4 -0.30515 17.0961 0.13243 5 -0.31042 17.0949 0.13242 6 -0.31151 17.0947 0.13242 7 -0.31173 17.0946 0.13242
LOG L.F. = 17.0946 AT RHO = -0.31173
ESTIMATE ASYMPTOTIC VARIANCE
ASYMPTOTIC ST.ERROR
ASYMPTOTIC RATIO
RHO -0.31173 0.05311 0.23045 -1.35271 R-SQUARE = 0.3321 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2367 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.94583E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.97254E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE = 0.13242 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.11964 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 17.0946
PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY
VARIABLE NAME
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT
STANDARD ERROR
T-RATIO 14 DF
P-VALUE
CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS
LNCPUE 0.59002 0.1647 3.582 0.003 0.692 0.6671 0.4814 E2 -0.37309E-03 0.5958E-03 -
0.6262 0.541 -0.165 -0.1087 -0.5244
CONSTANT 0.12331 0.1029 1.199 0.251 0.305 0.0000 1.0307 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.9602 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.0827 RHO = -0.08176 RESIDUAL SUM = -0.13304E-01 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.94709E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.2279 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.3319 RUNS TEST: 8 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 9 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.7395 DURBIN H STATISTIC (ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL) = -1.0814 MODIFIED FOR AUTO ORDER=1 stop
155
Lampiran 6. Analisis Penentuan Discount Rate Kula
file 11 E:\shazam\Kula.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\Kula.txt sample 1 10 read(11) T PDRB / skiplines=1 2 VARIABLES AND 10 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1
print T PDRB T PDRB
0.0000000 13.81914 0.6931472 13.87625 1.098612 13.93766 1.386294 13.99447 1.609438 14.02403 1.791759 14.01164 1.945910 14.02758 2.079442 14.04687 2.197225 14.06872 2.302585 14.10044
STAT PDRB T / pcor
NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUMPDRB 10 13.991 0.087910 0.0077282 13.819 14.100T 10 1.5104 0.73302 0.53732 0.00000 2.3026 CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 10 OBSERVATIONS
PDRB T PDRB 1.0000 T 0.98588 1.0000 OLS PDRB T / rstat anova REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 1 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = PDRB ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 10
R-SQUARE = 0.9720 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.9684 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.24383E-03
156
STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.15615E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.19507E-02 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 13.991 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 28.5215
MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.29260E-03 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = -8.1422 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - LOG SC = -8.0817 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.30479E-03 HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = 0.27231E-03 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.32511E-03 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.27309E-03 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - SC = 0.30916E-03 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - AIC = 0.29100E-03
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM MEAN
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.0676030 1. 0.67603E-01 277.252 ERROR 0.0019507 8. 0.24383E-03 P-VALUE TOTAL 0.0695540 9. 0.77282E-02 0.000
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM ZERO
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 1957.5 2. 978.73 4013948.455 ERROR 0.19507E-02 8. 0.24383E-03 P-VALUE TOTAL 1957.5 10. 195.75 0.000 PARTIAL STANDARDIZED
ELASTICITY VARIABLE
NAME ESTIMATED
COEFFICIENT STANDARD
ERROR T-
RATIO 8 DF
P-VALUE
CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS
T 0.11823 0.7101E-02 16.65 0.000 0.986 0.9859 0.0128 CONSTANT 13.812 0.1181E-01 1170. 0.000 1.000 0.0000 0.9872
157
DURBIN-WATSON = 1.5030 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.6700 RHO = 0.19527 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.13173E-13 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.24383E-03 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 0.12651 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.9720 RUNS TEST: 5 RUNS, 4 POS, 0 ZERO, 6 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.5620 stop
158
Lampiran 7. Analisis Koefisien Degradasi (Dengan Menggunakan Produksi Aktual dan Rataan Geometrik)
Tahun Produksi Aktual (Ton)
Produksi Lestari (Ton) Lestari/Aktual ExpD 1+ExpD 1/f
1985 580.088 647.148 1.11560 3.05141 4.05141 0.246831986 646.607 656.445 1.01522 2.75996 3.75996 0.265961987 705.815 723.551 1.02513 2.78745 3.78745 0.264031988 732.971 661.076 0.90191 2.46431 3.46431 0.288661989 803.828 659.656 0.82064 2.27196 3.27196 0.305631990 860.100 655.362 0.76196 2.14247 3.14247 0.318221991 784.644 679.297 0.86574 2.37676 3.37676 0.296141992 877.988 665.301 0.75776 2.13348 3.13348 0.319131993 908.041 720.122 0.79305 2.21013 3.21013 0.311511994 1,011.156 702.023 0.69428 2.00226 3.00226 0.333081995 1,008.565 812.338 0.80544 2.23768 3.23768 0.308861996 990.226 826.523 0.83468 2.30408 3.30408 0.302661997 1,117.615 807.156 0.72221 2.05898 3.05898 0.326911998 1,183.626 919.527 0.77687 2.17466 3.17466 0.314991999 1,058.940 956.528 0.90329 2.46770 3.46770 0.288382000 1,112.143 953.477 0.85733 2.35687 3.35687 0.297902001 1,178.836 981.916 0.83295 2.30010 3.30010 0.303022002 1,472.254 1,030.450 0.69991 2.01358 3.01358 0.33183
Tahun avg/act Expl 1+Expl Koef
1985 1.58839 4.89586 5.89586 0.16961 1986 1.42499 4.15780 5.15780 0.19388 1987 1.30545 3.68935 4.68935 0.21325 1988 1.25709 3.51516 4.51516 0.22148 1989 1.14627 3.14644 4.14644 0.24117 1990 1.07128 2.91911 3.91911 0.25516 1991 1.17430 3.23587 4.23587 0.23608 1992 1.04945 2.85609 3.85609 0.25933 1993 1.01472 2.75859 3.75859 0.26606 1994 0.91124 2.48741 3.48741 0.28675 1995 0.91358 2.49324 3.49324 0.28627 1996 0.93050 2.53578 3.53578 0.28282 1997 0.82444 2.28060 3.28060 0.30482 1998 0.77846 2.17812 3.17812 0.31465 1999 0.87012 2.38720 3.38720 0.29523 2000 0.82850 2.28987 3.28987 0.30396 2001 0.78162 2.18502 3.18502 0.31397 2002 0.62585 1.86983 2.86983 0.34845
159
Lampiran 8. Maple Output Untuk Perhitungan Optimal
a). Dengan real discount rate Kula 4%
> restart; > r:=0.515692; k:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; i:=0.04;
r := 0.515692
k := 1154.161571
q := 0.00093858
p := 101.619
c := 29.554
i := 0.04
> f(x):=r*ln(k/x)-r+(c*r*ln(k/x)/(x*(p*q*x-c)))=i;
f x( ) := 0.515692 ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
- 0.515692 +
15.24076137 ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
x 0.09537756102 x - 29.554( ) = 0.04
> solve(f(x),x);
396.6961584
> g(x):=ln(k/x)-1-(i/r)+(c*r)/(p*q*x)+(c*i)/(p*q*r*x)=0;
g x( ) := ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
- 1.077565679 + 183.8287461x
= 0
> a:=fsolve(g(x),x);
a := 549.1267825
> optx:=a; optx := 549.1267825
> h:=r*optx*ln(k/optx);
h := 210.3463464
> E:=h/(q*optx); E := 408.1229821
> Go(y):=q*k*y*exp((-q/r)*y);
Go y( ) := 1.083272967 y e -0.001820039869 y( )
> plot(Go(y),y=0..2000);
160
This is curve fitting for sustainable yield (logistic form) > Lo(y):=q*k*y-(q^2*k/r)*y^2;
Lo y( ) := 1.083272967 y - 0.001971599990 y 2
> plot(Lo(y), y=0..550);
161
b). Dengan market discount rate 15%
> restart; > r:=0.515692; k:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; i:=0.15;
r := 0.515692
k := 1154.161571
q := 0.00093858
p := 101.619
c := 29.554
i := 0.15
> f(x):=r*ln(k/x)-r+(c*r*ln(k/x)/(x*(p*q*x-c)))=i;
f x( ) := 0.515692 ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
- 0.515692 +
15.24076137 ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
x 0.09537756102 x - 29.554( ) = 0.15
> solve(f(x),x);
333.3906553
> g(x):=ln(k/x)-1-(i/r)+(c*r)/(p*q*x)+(c*i)/(p*q*r*x)=0;
g x( ) := ln 1154.161571x
⎛⎜⎝
⎞⎟⎠
- 1.290871295 + 249.9243153x
= 0
> a:=fsolve(g(x),x);
a := 515.4791984
> optx:=a; optx := 515.4791984
> h:=r*optx*ln(k/optx);
h := 214.2664086
> E:=h/(q*optx); E := 442.8652968
> Go(y):=q*k*y*exp((-q/r)*y);
Go y( ) := 1.083272967 y e -0.001820039869 y( )
162
> plot(Go(y),y=0..2000);
This is curve fitting for sustainable yield (logistic form) > Lo(y):=q*k*y-(q^2*k/r)*y^2;
Lo y( ) := 1.083272967 y - 0.001971599990 y 2
> plot(Lo(y), y=0..550);
163
Lampiran 9. Analisis Optimal Untuk Rezim Pengelolaan MEY, MSY dan Open Acces
> restart; > r:=0.515692; K:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; delta:=0.15;
r := 0.515692
K := 1154.161571
q := 0.00093858
p := 101.619
c := 29.554
δ := 0.15
> hs:=q*K*E*(1-(q*E)/r); hs := 1.083272967 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( )
> Emax:=diff(hs,E);
Emax := 1.083272967 - 0.003943199978 E
> Esus:=solve(Emax=0,E); Esus := 274.7192567
> hsus:=q*K*Esus*(1-(q*Esus)/r);
hsus := 148.7979722
> pi:=p*hs-c*E; π := 110.0811156 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( ) - 29.554 E
> pisus:=p*hsus-c*Esus;
pisus := 7001.648227
> Xsus:=hsus/(q*Esus); Xsus := 577.0807857
> Eoa:=(r/q)*((1-(c/(p*q*K))));
Eoa := 401.9281460
> hoa:=((r*c)/(p*q))*(1-(c/(p*q*K))); hoa := 116.8933411
> Xoa:=hoa/(q*Eoa);
Xoa := 309.8632391
> pioa:=p*hoa-c*Eoa; pioa := 0.
> Eopt:=diff(pi,E);
Eopt := 80.5271156 - 0.4007040384 E
> Eopt:=solve(Eopt=0,E); Eopt := 200.9640729
164
> TR:=p*hs; TR := 110.0811156 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( )
> TC:=c*E;
TC := 29.554 E
> plot({TC,TR},E=0..700, Yield=0..20000);
> plot(hs,E=0..700, Yield=0..200);
> Xopt:=(K/2)*(1+(c/(p*q*K)));
Xopt := 732.0124050
> hopt:=((r*K)/4)*(1+(c/(p*q*K)))*(1-(c/(p*q*K))); hopt := 138.0728091
> piopt:=p*hopt-c*Eopt;
piopt := 8091.528580
165
Lampiran 10. Analisis Interaksi Mangrove dan Sumberdaya Perikanan (Model Fozal)
A. Data yang digunakan dalam model Fozal
Tahun Effort (Trip)
Produksi (Ton)
Mangrove7 (Ha) h/E ME
1985 67.556 580,09 31.001,0 0,85868 2.094,30
1986 68.665 646,61 33.587,5 0,94168 2.306,28
1987 76.816 705,82 36.173,9 0,91884 2.778,73
1988 69.219 732,97 38.760,3 1,05892 2.682,95
1989 69.049 803,83 41.346,8 1,16414 2.854,95
1990 68.536 860,10 43.933,2 1,25496 3.011,01
1991 71.412 784,64 46.519,7 1,09876 3.322,06
1992 69.726 877,99 49.106,1 1,25920 3.423,97
1993 76.393 908,04 51.692,5 1,18864 3.948,95
1994 74.172 1011,16 54.279,0 1,36326 4.025,98
1995 88.018 1008,57 56.865,4 1,14586 5.005,18
1996 89.855 990,23 59.451,9 1,10203 5.342,05
1997 87.350 1.117,62 62.038,3 1,27947 5.419,05
1998 102.246 1.183,63 64.624,7 1,15763 6.607,62
1999 107.353 1.058,94 67.211,2 0,98641 7.215,32
2000 106.928 1.112,14 69.797,6 1,04009 7.463,32
2001 110.920 1.178,84 48.718,0 1,06278 5.403,80
2002 117.889 1.472,25 48.567,0 1,24885 5.456,15
7 Data diolah dari Bakosurtanal (2001) dan Khairuddin (2003)
166
B. Analisis penentuan koefisien regresi
file 11 E:\shazam\Fozal.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\Fozal.txt sample 1 18 read(11) Y X1 X2 / skiplines=1 3 VARIABLES AND 18 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1
print Y X1 X2 0.858680 3100.102 209430.5 0.941680 3358.746 230628.3 0.918840 3617.390 277873.4 1.058920 3876.034 268295.2 1.164140 4134.678 285495.4 1.254960 4393.322 301100.7 1.098760 4651.966 332206.2 1.259200 4910.610 342397.2 1.188640 5169.254 394894.8 1.363260 5427.898 402598.1 1.145860 5686.542 500518.1 1.102030 5945.186 534204.7 1.279470 6203.830 541904.6 1.157630 6462.474 660762.1 0.986410 6721.118 721532.2 1.040090 6979.762 746332.0 1.062780 4871.800 540380.1 1.062780 4856.697 572551.2
STAT Y X1 X2 / pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM
Y 18 1.1080 0.17893E-01 0.13377 0.85868 1.3633 X1 18 5020.4 1158.1 0.13412E+07 3100.1 6979.8 X2 18 0.43684E+06 0.17025E+06 0.28984E+11 0.20943E+06 0.74633E+06
CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 18 OBSERVATIONS Y 1.0000 X1 0.38204 1.0000 X2 0.10322 0.9177 1.0000
Y X1 X2 OLS Y X1 X2 / rstat anova
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 2 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 18 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = Y ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 18
167
R-SQUARE = 0.5336 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4714 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.94590E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.97257E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.14188 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 1.1080 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 18.0471
MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.11035E-01 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = -4.5098 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - LOG SC = -4.3614 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.11351E-01 HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = 0.11228E-01 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.11824E-01 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.10510E-01 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - SC = 0.12761E-01 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - AIC = 0.11001E-01
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM MEAN
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.16230 2. 0.81152E-01 8.579ERROR 0.14188 15. 0.94590E-02 P-VALUETOTAL 0.30419 17. 0.17893E-01 0.003
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM ZERO
SS DF MS F REGRESSION 22.2610 3. 7.4202 784.460ERROR 0.1419 15. 0.94590E-02 P-VALUETOTAL 22.4020 18. 1.2446 0.000 PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY
VARIABLE NAME
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT
STANDARD ERROR
T-RATIO 15 DF
P-VALUE
CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS
X1 0.21022E-03 0.5126E-04 4.101 0.001 0.727 1.8200 0.9525 X2 -0.12312E-05 0.3487E-06 -3.531 0.003 -0.674 -1.5670 -0.4854 CONSTANT 0.59043 0.1342 4.399 0.001 0.751 0.0000 0.5329 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.3841 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.4655 RHO = 0.20088 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.38858E-15 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.94590E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.3941 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.5336 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.0547
168
*plot Y / time nowide *plot X1 / time nowide *plot X2 / time nowide
Coint Y X1 X2 ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 18
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 3 CURRENT PAR = 500 ...NOTE..TEST LAG ORDER AUTOMATICALLY SET
TOTAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 18
VARIABLE : Y DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17
NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.0452 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.7288 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.8298 3.78 AIC = -4.357 SC = -4.259 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -8.6120 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.4009 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.4603 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.5898 5.34 AIC = -4.250 SC = -4.103 VARIABLE : X1 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -3.4124 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.7791 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 1.8957 3.78 AIC = 12.687 SC = 12.785 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -2.28360 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -0.50659 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 1.21200 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 1.52410 5.34 AIC = 12.799 SC = 12.946
169
VARIABLE : X2 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -1.9285 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.1763 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 1.5729 3.78 AIC = 22.315 SC = 22.413 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -7.9179 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.7592 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 1.7941 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 1.7500 5.34 AIC = 22.298 SC = 22.445 *Coint Y X1 X2 / type=df ndiff=1 nlag=4 *Coint Y X1 X2 / type=df ndiff=2 nlag=4
auto Y X1 X2 / rstat
REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 3 CURRENT PAR = 500
DEPENDENT VARIABLE = Y ..NOTE..R-SQUARE,ANOVA,RESIDUALS DONE ON ORIGINAL VARS
LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION 18 OBSERVATIONS BY COCHRANE-ORCUTT TYPE PROCEDURE WITH CONVERGENCE = 0.00100 ITERATION RHO LOG L.F. SSE
1 0.00000 18.0471 0.14188 2 0.20088 18.3861 0.13633 3 0.20800 18.3884 0.13627 4 0.20850 18.3885 0.13627
LOG L.F. = 18.3885 AT RHO = 0.20850
ESTIMATE ASYMPTOTIC VARIANCE
ASYMPTOTIC ST.ERROR
ASYMPTOTIC RATIO
RHO 0.20850 0.05314 0.23052 0.90446 R-SQUARE = 0.5520 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4923 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.90844E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.95312E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE = 0.13627
170
MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 1.1080 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 18.3885
PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY
VARIABLE NAME
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT
STANDARD ERROR
T-RATIO 15 DF
P-VALUE
CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS
X1 0.20654E-03 0.5744E-04 3.596 0.003 0.680 1.7881 0.9358 X2 -0.12299E-05 0.3961E-06 -3.105 0.007 -0.625 -1.5653 -0.4849 CONSTANT 0.60868 0.1507 4.039 0.001 0.722 0.0000 0.5493 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.6390 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.7354 RHO = 0.06061 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.27672E-01 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.91354E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.3828 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.5497 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.0547 DURBIN H STATISTIC (ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL) = 1.2332 MODIFIED FOR AUTO ORDER=1 stop
C. Model Fozal
Dari analisis regresi diperoleh :
b1 = 0.00020654 b2 = -0.00000123
Setelah dikalikan dengan rata-rata luasan mangrove maka diperoleh persamaan model Fozal:
20061751043,0036915481,1 EEht −=
171
Lampiran 11. Peta Sebaran Mangrove di Kabupaten Bengkalis
172
Lampiran 12. Peta Sebaran Alat Tangkap di Kabupaten Bengkalis
173
Lampiran 13. Perhitungan Analisis Stabilitas
A. Analisis stabilitas terhadap data biomass
Tahun Et ht Xt Xt+1 Xt+2
1985 67.556 58.01 914.87 1,003.31 978.97 1986 68.665 64.66 1,003.31 978.97 1,128.21 1987 76.816 70.58 978.97 1,128.21 1,240.32 1988 69.219 73.30 1,128.21 1,240.32 1,337.09 1989 69.049 80.38 1,240.32 1,337.09 1,170.67 1990 68.536 86.01 1,337.09 1,170.67 1,341.60 1991 71.412 78.46 1,170.67 1,341.60 1,266.43 1992 69.726 87.80 1,341.60 1,266.43 1,452.46 1993 76.393 90.80 1,266.43 1,452.46 1,220.85 1994 74.172 101.12 1,452.46 1,220.85 1,174.15 1995 88.018 100.86 1,220.85 1,174.15 1,363.19 1996 89.855 99.02 1,174.15 1,363.19 1,233.38 1997 87.350 111.76 1,363.19 1,233.38 1,050.96 1998 102.246 118.36 1,233.38 1,050.96 1,108.15 1999 107.353 105.89 1,050.96 1,108.15 1,132.32 2000 106.928 111.21 1,108.15 1,132.32 1,330.57 2001 110.920 117.88 1,132.32 1,330.57 - 2002 117.889 147.23 1,330.57
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.38422R Square 0.14762Adjusted R Square 0.01649Standard Error 124.87842Observations 16
174
ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 35111.161 17555.580 1.12575 0.35408 Residual 13 202730.068 15594.621 Total 15 237841.229
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower
95% Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 750.392 315.891 2.375 0.034 67.952 1432.832 67.952 1432.832 X Variable 1 0.277 0.284 0.977 0.347 -0.336 0.890 -0.336 0.890 X Variable 2 0.116 0.251 0.462 0.652 -0.426 0.658 -0.426 0.658
Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai : a = 0.2771 b = 0.1160
=− ba 241 -0.0968
Ini berarti nilai dari : ba −241 < 0
Solusinya:
br =
( )ba 2/cos −=θ
( )ωθ += tArx tt cos
dimana [ ]πθ ,0∈
maka akan diperoleh : r = 0.3406
=θcos -0.4067 A = 1
Dari persamaan fungsi xt di atas maka akan diperoleh data sebagai berikut:
t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Xt -0.1385 -0.0472 -0.0161 -0.0055 -0.0019 -0.0006 -0.0002 -0.0001
Data biomass dikatakan stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:
1). b < 1
2). a < 1+b
175
Dari hasil perhitungan diperoleh:
1). b = 0.1160 b < 1
2). a = 0.2771
1 + b = 1.1160 a < 1 + b
∴ Data biomass stabil
B. Analisis stability terhadap data effort
Tahun Et Et+1 Et+2
1985 67.556 68.665 76.816 1986 68.665 76.816 69.219 1987 76.816 69.219 69.049 1988 69.219 69.049 68.536 1989 69.049 68.536 71.412 1990 68.536 71.412 69.726 1991 71.412 69.726 76.393 1992 69.726 76.393 74.172 1993 76.393 74.172 88.018 1994 74.172 88.018 89.855 1995 88.018 89.855 87.350 1996 89.855 87.350 102.246 1997 87.350 102.246 107.353 1998 102.246 107.353 106.928 1999 107.353 106.928 110.920 2000 106.928 110.920 117.889 2001 110.920 117.889 - 2002 117.889 -
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.946527645R Square 0.895914584Adjusted R Square 0.879901443Standard Error 5.988179745Observations 16
176
ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 4012.4509 2006.2254 55.9487 4.10236E-07 Residual 13 466.1579 35.8583 Total 15 4478.6088
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-
value Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -4.1648 8.8880 -0.4686 0.6471 -23.3662 15.0367 -23.3662 15.0367 X Variable 1 0.6848 0.2592 2.6415 0.0203 0.1247 1.2448 0.1247 1.2448 X Variable 2 0.4154 0.2840 1.4627 0.1673 -0.1981 1.0289 -0.1981 1.0289
Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai :
a = 0.6848
b = 0.4154
=− ba 241 -0.2981
Ini berarti nilai dari : ba −241 < 0
Solusinya:
br =
( )ba 2/cos −=θ
( )ωθ += tArx tt cos
dimana [ ]πθ ,0∈
maka akan diperoleh : r = 0.6445
=θcos -0.5313
A = 1 Dari persamaan fungsi xt tersebut, maka diperoleh data sebagai berikut:
t Xt 1 -0.3424 2 -0.2207 3 -0.1422 4 -0.0917 5 -0.0591 6 -0.0381 7 -0.0245
177
t Xt 8 -0.0158 9 -0.0102 10 -0.0066 11 -0.0042 12 -0.0027 13 -0.0018 14 -0.0011 15 -0.0007 16 -0.0005 17 -0.0003 18 -0.0002 19 -0.0001 20 -0.0001
Data biomass dikatakan stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:
1). b < 1
2). a < 1+b
Dari hasil perhitungan diperoleh:
1). b = 0.4154 b < 1
2). a = 0.6848
1 + b = 1.4154 a < 1 + b
∴ Data effort stabil
178
C. Analisis stability terhadap data luasan mangrove
Tahun Mt Mt+1 Mt+2
1985 31.00 33.59 36.17 1986 33.59 36.17 38.76 1987 36.17 38.76 41.35 1988 38.76 41.35 43.93 1989 41.35 43.93 46.52 1990 43.93 46.52 49.11 1991 46.52 49.11 51.69 1992 49.11 51.69 54.28 1993 51.69 54.28 56.87 1994 54.28 56.87 59.45 1995 56.87 59.45 62.04 1996 59.45 62.04 64.62 1997 62.04 64.62 67.21 1998 64.62 67.21 69.80 1999 67.21 69.80 48.72 2000 69.80 48.72 46.28 2001 48.72 46.28 2002 46.28
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.854847R Square 0.730763Adjusted R Square 0.689342Standard Error 5.715897Observations 16
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 1152.800780 576.400390 17.642314 0.000198Residual 13 424.729150 32.671473 Total 15 1577.529931
179
Coefficients Standard
Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 12.38262 6.93844 1.78464 0.09766 -2.60698 27.37221 -2.60698 27.37221 X Variable 1 0.94555 0.27487 3.43994 0.00439 0.35172 1.53938 0.35172 1.53938 X Variable 2 -0.17430 0.25000 -0.69722 0.49795 -0.71438 0.36578 -0.71438 0.36578
Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai :
a = 0.94555 b = -0.17430
39782,0241 =− ba
Karena nilai dari : 0241 >− ba , solusinya:
baam −±−= 241
21
2,1
m1 = 0.15795 m2 = -1.10350 dan :
ttt BmAmx 21 +=
Jika A=1 dan B=2 Dari persamaan fungsi xt di atas maka akan diperoleh data sebagai berikut:
t Xt 1 -2.04912 2.46043 -2.68364 2.96635 -3.27256 3.61147 -3.98528 4.39769 -4.852810 5.355111 -5.909412 6.521013 -7.195914 7.940715 -8.762616 9.6696
180
Data stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:
1). b < 1
2). a < 1+b
Dari hasil perhitungan diperoleh:
1). b = -0.17430 b < 1
2). a = 0.94555
1 + b = 0.82570 a > 1 + b
∴ Data mangrove tidak stabil
181
Lampiran 14. Perhitungan Surplus Produsen
> restart; > AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
AC := 2 c
α + -4 β h + α2
> A:=int(AC,h);
A := c α ln h( )
2 β -
c -4 β h + α2
β -
c α ln -4 β h + α2
- α⎛⎝
⎞⎠
2 β +
c α ln α + -4 β h + α2⎛
⎝⎞⎠
2 β
> PS:=p0*h0-A;
PS := p0 h0 - c α ln h( )
2 β +
c -4 β h + α2
β +
c α ln -4 β h + α2
- α⎛⎝
⎞⎠
2 β -
c α ln α + -4 β h + α2⎛
⎝⎞⎠
2 β
1985
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=32.190; c:=10.903; h:=64.184;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 32.190
c := 10.903
h := 64.184
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 11.47589345
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 13833.06054
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11766.97758
182
1986
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.197159999e-2; p0:=31.568; c:=9.750; h:=65.087;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.00197159999
p0 := 31.568
c := 9.750
h := 65.087
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 10.28596850
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 12379.48208
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 10324.81566
1987
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=37.253; c:=11.791; h:=71.578;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 37.253
c := 11.791
h := 71.578
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 12.65366668
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 15052.35046
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12385.85523
183
1988
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=41.644; c:=11.438; h:=65.537;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 41.644
c := 11.438
h := 65.537
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 12.08069512
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 14528.15276
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11798.92993
1989
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=44.604; c:=11.143; h:=64.184;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 44.604
c := 11.143
h := 64.184
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 11.72850415
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 14137.55787
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11274.69473
184
1990
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=47.383; c:=10.981; h:=65.399;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 47.383
c := 10.981
h := 65.399
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 11.59390665
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 13946.08690
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 10847.28608
1991
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=51.411; c:=13.608; h:=64.982;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 51.411
c := 13.608
h := 64.982
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 14.35219055
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 17276.44072
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 13935.65112
185
1992
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=53.931; c:=12.456; h:=67.304;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 53.931
c := 12.456
h := 67.304
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 13.21623073
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 15844.48081
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12214.70879
1993
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=60.033; c:=14.689; h:=65.947;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 60.033
c := 14.689
h := 65.947
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 15.53075079
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 18663.82500
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 14704.82875
186
1994
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=63.664; c:=13.582; h:=71.248;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 63.664
c := 13.582
h := 71.248
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 14.56268603
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 17333.92714
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12797.99447
1995
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=72.745; c:=18.464; h:=69.502;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 72.745
c := 18.464
h := 69.502
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 19.70470817
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 23530.05869
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 18474.13570
187
1996
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=79.333; c:=20.937; h:=80.073;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 79.333
c := 20.937
h := 80.073
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 23.01433806
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 26921.25159
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 20568.82028
1997
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=84.588; c:=19.227; h:=81.419;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 84.588
c := 19.227
h := 81.419
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 21.21916762
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 24751.00024
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 17863.92987
188
1998
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=140.451; c:=35.286; h:=79.581;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 140.451
c := 35.286
h := 79.581
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 38.73102880
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 45352.43957
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 34175.20854
1999
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=221.665; c:=65.356; h:=90.149;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 221.665
c := 65.356
h := 90.149
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 74.12633106
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 84771.28010
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 64788.40202
189
2000
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=214.731; c:=60.044; h:=93.571;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 214.731
c := 60.044
h := 93.571
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 68.88825202
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 78115.62399
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 58023.02959
2001
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=266.464; c:=72.919; h:=93.290;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 266.464
c := 72.919
h := 93.290
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 83.57929464
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 94842.15455
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 69983.72799
190
2002
> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=285.480; c:=66.483; h:=95.900;
α := 1.083272967
β := 0.001971599990
p0 := 285.480
c := 66.483
h := 95.900
> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 76.89614136
> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));
A := 86670.95331
> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 59293.42131