DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction

George MavrotasNATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

Skopje - 22.3.2002

DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002

STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION

Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities

Indicative measures and policies

Evaluation of the measures

Priorities according to local experts

Concluding remarks


Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Year

MtCO2 equiv.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000 GDP

N2O CH4 CO2 GDP EU Kyoto target


Distribution of CO2 emissions

Energysector77%

Industrial processes

7%

Agriculture7%

Waste9%

CO2– eq emisionsfor 2000 (estimates)

14036 kt CO2

Electricity production

74%

Transport11%Heat

production15%

Energy sector

10787 kt CO2

First priority: Measures that affect electricity production


Power generation

Electric efficiency: 40%CO2 emission factor:0.98 tCO2/MWh

Power generation 20006441 GWh

Solid75%

Oil7%

Hydro18%

Solid54%Oil

23%

Natural gas13%

Hydro10%

GREECEPower generation 2000

52200 GWh

Electric efficiency: 35%CO2 emission factor:0.95 tCO2/MWh


Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation

High Priority:Reduce solids - increase renewables (hydro,

wind) and natural gas in power generation mixImprove efficiency“Clean” technologies (hydro, NG) for base loadMinimize transmission losses

The goal is to improve energy efficiency of the existing infrastructure and to gradually upgrade the whole sector by adding cleaner and more efficient technologies.


Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors

The aim should be 3-fold:To increase energy efficiency through

minimisation of energy losses

To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment

To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables


Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector

Improved maintenance of central heating systems Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings

(insulation + double glazing) Updating building specifications for new buildings Buildings shading Use of low energy lamps Use of efficient domestic appliances Automatisation in lighting Solar water heating systems Further penetration of natural gas District heating with biomass CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)


Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector

Improved maintenance of energy equipment

Energy conservation (reduction of losses)

Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas

Cogeneration with natural gas

Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)


Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector

Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks

and buses

Improvement of road network

Improvement in traffic lighting

Promotion of public transport

Increased natural gas in public transport


Evaluation of measures

Cost estimationCost per ton of CO2 saved (specific cost)

Contribution to CO2 emissions’ abatement

Marginal abatement cost curve Additional criteria

Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers)

Environmental synergiesImpact on employment and regional

development


Cost per ton of CO2 saved

Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the

reference time period (e.g. 1year)

Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure)

Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation

Cost of measure per ton of CO2 saved:

measurebaseline

baselinemeasure

COCO

CostCostCostSpecific

22


CO2 abatement estimation

Specify the target year

Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year

Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year: CO2ab=(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit unitstarg_year penetration_rate


Greek case: ranking according to the specific cost

of measures

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-60

-40

-20

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"No regret" measures


Greek case: ranking according to the CO2

abatement in 2010

2785

2353

1397 1367 1345 1300

866

425 410200 159 104 79 50

3063

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500

1000

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CO2 reduction in 2010


Greek case: Marginal abatement cost curve for

2010

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

CO2 reduction (kt)

co

st

(eu

ro/ tC

O2

)


Example: Economy lamps

Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m2) Reference time period: 1 year

Incandescent lamps

Economy lamps

Lighting power 420 W 105 W

Annual consumption 294 kWh 73 kWh

Price of 1 lamp (60W15W)

0.88 € 14.67 €

Lifetime ~ 1 year ~ 8 years


Example: Economy lamps (2)

Annualized cost per lamp: Incandescent: 0.88 €Economy lamp: CRF(4%, 8 years)14.67 =0.149 14.67 = 2.19 €

Annualized cost per household: Incandescent: 7.1 lamps/household 0.88 €/lamp = 6.22 €Economy lamps: 7.1 lamps/household 2.19 €/lamp = 15.40 €

Annual electricity cost (~ 0.062 €/kWh): Incandescent: 0.062 €/kWh 294 kWh = 18.11 €Economy lamps: 0.062 €/kWh 73 kWh = 4.53 €



Total annual cost per household: Incandescent: 6.22 € + 18.11 € = 24.33 €Economy lamps: 15.40 € + 4.53 € = 19.93 €

Power generation data Transmission losses: 10%Average emission factor (2010): 0.987 kg CO2/kWh

Power generation CO2 emissions per household Incandescent: 0.987 294/(1- 0.1) = 322 kg CO2

Economy lamps: 0.987 73/(1- 0.1) = 81 kg CO2



Abatement cost: (19.93€ – 24.33€) / (322 kgCO2 – 81 kgCO2) = -18.22 €/ tCO2

Number of households in 2010: ~ 600.000 Penetration of the measure until 2010: ~ 50% CO2 abatement in 2010:

600.000 (322 kgCO2 – 81 kgCO2) 0.5 = 72.3 kt CO2


Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

low medium high

New hydro plants

Other renewables (wind)

Modification in unit commitment

Advanced combustion technologies

INDUSTRY

low medium high

Substitution of coal and oil with NG

Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP)

Energy conservation


Questionnaire results (2)

RESIDENTIAL & TERTIARY SECTOR

low medium high

Thermal insulation improvements

Penetration of NG

District Heating

DSM measures

Economy lamps

Solar collectors for hot water

Maintenance of central heating boilers

CHP in tertiary (hospitals, hotels etc)



TRANSPORT

low medium high

Road network improvements

Promotion of Public transport means

Intervention in the fuels (NG, LPG, bio-diesel)

Traffic lights tuning

NG in public transport buses

AGRICULTURAL

low medium high

Geothermal energy in greenhouses

Energy crops (for biofuels)



LAND USE CHANGE & FORESTRY

low medium high

Effective forest-fire control

Rational use of forests - Reafforestation

WASTE MANAGEMENT

low medium high

Recycling (paper, glass, aluminium)

Bio-gas from landfills


Concluding remarks

First priority: Power generation sector Criteria for the evaluation of measures

Cost per ton of CO2 saved

CO2 abatement for target year

Applicability, synergies, employment

Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures

Documents

DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases