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NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
MEASURING THE GROSS REGIONAL EXPENDITURES
(GRDE) IN THE PHILIPPINES
by
VIVIAN R. ILARINANational Statistical Coordination Board
Philippines
International Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts
Beijing China, 15-17 March 2010
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
I. Introduction
a. Brief History
b. Salient Features of the Present GRDE
c. Compilation Process
II. The Gross Regional Domestic Expenditures
a. Scope and Coverage
b. Sources of Data
c. Estimation Methodology
d. Measurement Issues
III. Way Forward
Outline of the Presentation
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
A. Brief History
The Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA)
• The has been continuously compiled for almost 63 years now which started in 1947 – for the
annual national accounts and in 1983 for the quarterly
national accounts;
• The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) which
is task with the compilation of the PSNA has started
development of the GRDE in 1987 – much later after
the start of the GRDP in 1971;
I. Introduction
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
• 1987 is also a milestone in the PSNA as this starts the
regular publication of the GRDE on an annual basis;
• The first release of the GRDE was at base year 1972
and an overall revision / rebasing of the GRDE was undertaken in 1990 with the shift of the
base year to 1985 and improved estimates.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
B. Salient Features of the Present GRDE
• The GRDE is intended to complement the current series of the GRDP to be able to provide
measures of the regional economy at the production and expenditure sides of the national accounts;
• While the compilation of the GRDE started in 1987, this is
still in its developmental stage since the NSCB is constantly improving the GRDE by coordinating
with various agencies for the improvement of data
support for this set of accounts;
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
• The present GRDE is at base year 1985; still
follows the recommendations of the 1968 UNSNA;
• The 2009 GRDE publication is covering the period 2006,
2007 and 2008;
• The GRDE has a lag time of one year – that is, data
becomes available in the publication after one year;
• The GRDE release is first week August of each current
year.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
C. Compilation Process of GRDE
1. The GRDE starts from the national level
estimates.
GDP at the expenditure side is compiled as : 1. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
Plus 2. Government Consumption Expenditures (GCE)Plus 3. Gross Domestic Capital Formation (GDCF)
a. Fixed Capital a.1. Construction a.2. Durable Equipment a.3. Breeding Stocks b. Changes in Stocks
Plus 4. Exports a. Merchandize Exports b. Non-Merchandize Exports
Plus 5. Imports a. Merchandize Imports b. Non-Merchandize Imports
EQUALS EXPENDITURES ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
For the Gross Regional Domestic Expenditures, the
following are estimated separately by region namely:
1. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2. Government Consumption Expenditures (GCE) 3. Construction 4. Durable Equipment 5. Breeding Stocks, Orchard Development &
Afforestation
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
The rest of the expenditure items below are estimated
as residual : 1. Exports 2. Imports and 3. Changes in Stocks
The residual estimates also includes the statistical discrepancy between the production and the
expenditure sides of GDP.
The GRDE starts with the national estimates as control total
and these are allocated among regions using appropriate
regional indicators.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
THE COMPILATION OF THE GRDE
a. Scope and Coverage (operational)
b. Major sources of data
c. Estimation Methodology
d. Some Measurement Issues
II. The Gross Regional Domestic Expenditures (GRDE)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
1.Personal Consumption Expenditures
a.Scope and Coverage: - includes the final consumption
expenditures of individual households, institutional
households, and private non-profits institutions
serving households.
b. Source of data: Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) by region
which is conducted by the National Statistics
Office (for benchmark estimates)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
PCE is classified by item of expenditures namely:
1. food 2. beverage
3. tobacco 4. clothing and footwear 5. fuel, light and water 6. household furnishings 7. household operations 8. transportation and communications 9. miscellaneous expenditures like
medical and health expenses, personal care, etc.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
c. Estimation Methodology: Benchmark : Regional distribution of total
expenditures from Family Income and Expenditure Surveys (FIES) – serves as indicator to allocate national level estimates.
Annual: trend extrapolation of regional estimates resulting from modified commodity flow method
by region using indicators used on production
coming from the GRDP.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
Deflator: Consumer Price Index by region(average of all items for each
region)
d. Measurement Issues:
The estimation of PCE at the regional level pose limitations for the replication of the methodology used at the national level because of the unavailable data for regional estimates.
It is assumed that the distribution of the final
expenditures of NPISH is the same as the household
expenditure distributions.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
2. General Government Consumption Expenditures
a. Scope and Coverage: includes central (or national) government;
local government and social security agencies
b.Sources of data: a. For national and local govt - financial report from the Commission on Audit (COA) b. For social security agencies – financial report from the Social Security System (SSS) and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
d.Estimation Methodology:
Regional for government consumption expenditures are coming from the Commission on Audit (COA).
When data are not available from COA, data on regional program of expenditures from the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) are used.
Deflator: Average Earnings Index – computed at national level is the same index used for all regions. CPI by region for maintenance and operating expenses.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
3. Construction
a. Scope and Coverage:
Classified into public construction and private construction;
- Public construction - are construction done by national
government, local government, and government corporations;
- Private construction - are residential construction and
non-residential construction
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
b. Sources of data:
1. For public construction – annual financial reports from Commission on Audit; the Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) of the Department of Budget
and Management (DBM)
2. For private construction – report on building permits compiled by the National Statistics
Office (NSO)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
c. Estimation Methodology:
1. Regional public construction - Estimated only for physical accomplishment of contruction put in place;
2. Regional private construction – Estimates for residential and non-residential; used the
S-curve to estimate percentage distributionof physical accomplishments for the period.
Deflator: Regional CPI for housing and maintenance provides the regional differentials applied to
the composite price index at the national level.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
d. Measurement Issues:
1. Regional allocation of the sector’s output among regions is based on indicator
of regional distribution as estimated from the
gross valued added of public and private construction;
2. Undercoverage for private construction which is based from building permits
is assumed to be uniform across regions because there is no data currently
available to estimate the undercoverage ratio by region.
3. For public, the national deflator used is used for all
regions.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
4. Durable Equipment
a. Scope and Coverage:
-consists of outlays for new and used capital goods such as machinery and equipment acquired by all resident producers less sales or transfers of used capital goods;
- covers machinery specialized for particular industries,
general industrial machinery and equipment, transport
equipment and miscellaneous equipment.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
b. Sources of data:
For imports of durable equipment – foreign trade statistics compiled by the National Statistics Office (NSO);
For domestic production – census and survey of establishments conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO).
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
c. Estimation Methodology:
1. Regional indicators are obtained from the regional pattern of expenditure on equipment are resorted
which are generated from the establishment census
and surveys.
Deflator – the same deflator is used for national estimates and regional estimates which is the Wholesale Price Index.
2. This assumes that for most capital goods
price determination is more a function of the
uniqueness of the equipment rather than its
geographical placement.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
d. Measurement Issue:
The commodity Flow Method as applied at the
national level estimate can not be used at the
regional estimates since available data for the
region can not fully support the methodology.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
5. Breeding Stocks, Orchard Development and Afforestation a. Scope and Coverage: - Breeding Stocks: refer to outlays on livestock and
poultry raised as breeders, draught, milking, layers;
- Orchard Development: refers to outlays on the cultivation of plantations until they become productive;
- Afforestation : cultivation of forest trees in newly created forest areas.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
b. Sources of data :
1. Bureau of Agricultural Statistics – for data
on inventory of livestock and poultry;
cost of production studies on total cost
per hectare for the development/main-
tenance of plantations;
2. National Statistics Office – from the Census
of Agriculture, data used are ratios of animals
used as capital formation and data on total
areas devoted to permanent crops.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
c. Estimation Methodology Breeding Stocks
1. Estimates makes use of indicators on regional
data on inventory and regional prices used for breeding stocks, milking, laying and work animals.
2. The regional ratios to determine the number of animals used for capital formation are based on the Census of Agriculture.
Deflator - Regional farm gate prices for
each type of animals
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
Estimation Methodology:
Orchard Development a. Estimates makes use of indicators on
regional data on the distribution of value of
production of major plantation crops.
Measurement Issues:
a. Regional distribution follows the gross value
added by region.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
Estimation Methodology
Afforestation a. Estimates makes use of indicators on
regional data on expenditures incurred by
private enterprises and government as
reported by the Forest Management Bureau
(FMB)
Deflator Regional cost per hectare reforested
translated into an index.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
6. Changes in Stocks
- Stocks includes:
(a)(a) Materials & SuppliesMaterials & Supplies
(b)(b) Work-in-progress Work-in-progress
(c)(c) Finished Goods Finished Goods
(d)(d) Goods for Resale Goods for Resale
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
a. Scope and Coverage:
Changes in Stocks
Agriculture Non-Agriculture Government
• Rice
• Corn
• Sugar
• Crude
• Petroleum Products
• Trade
• Manufacturing /
Other Establishments
• National
• Local
• Gov’t Corporations
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
a. Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) - data on quarterly volume of production and inventory of rice and corn at the beginning of each
month, wholesale prices of rice and corn
b. Sugar Regulatory Board (SRA)- data on quarterly production, imports, exports, consumption and prices of sugar
c. Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS), NSO- Exports and Imports of Rice and Corn
d. Department of Energy (DOE)- monthly inventory and prices of crude and petroleum products
e. Commission on Audit (COA)- annual data on inventories of national, local government and government corporations
b. Sources of data :
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
1. Regional estimates are done separately for the agriculture and non-agriculture sectors.
2. Agriculture estimates used as regional indicators the stocksheld by households, commercial and National Food Authority
3. Non-agriculture estimates used as regional indicators the inventory held by industrial and non-industrial sectos particularly the finished goods held by manufacturing, mining and quarrying establishments.
c. Estimation Methodology:
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
Agricultural inventory – by farm gate prices
Non-agricultural inventory – by implicit price index at the national level and distributed into regions using as indicator the CPI.
Deflator
d. Measurement Issue:
a. As in the case of durable equipment, estimates of changes in stocks for non-agricultural industries use the establisment based data and household stocks are not adequately captured.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
7. Exports and Imports
In the absence of regional trade flow, net exports is derived
as a residual item.
Hence, net exports refers to the combined effect of the
income flows between regions, the commodity flows between
regions and the rest of the world and the statistical discrepancy.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
With the on-going Revision and Rebasing of the National
Accounts, the present GRDE is also undertaking the same
activities to consider the following for the release of the
new GRDE series from 1998 to 2009:
1. Base Year 20002. New Classification Systems –
- Philippine COICOP- Philippine PSCC
3. Adoption of the 1993 SNA concepts4. Use of update data and parameters
III. Way Forward
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARDInternational Workshop on Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, ChinaVRIlarina/ March 15-17 2010
Thank you very much !
URL: http://www.nscb.gov.phe-mail: [email protected]