D-A128 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE … · D-A128 879 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE AND SMALL YRA CRAFT LOCKAGES ON T..(U) MIDWEST RESEARCH INST KANSAS

D-A128 879 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE AND SMALL YRACRAFT LOCKAGES ON T..(U) MIDWEST RESEARCH INST KANSASCITY MO R M MISCHON 26 JUL 78 DACNfl7-77-C-6075

UNCLASSIFIED F/G 03/3 N

*ioomommommmiiismhhhhhhhhhhhEhhhhhhhhhhhhEmhhhhhhhhhhhhE

.4

Nil "3 2

liii 1.0.0

-WAq

-°-o

MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART

'I NATIONAL BUREAU Of STANDARDS-1963-A

6

"III

*11

yx

DISCLAIMER NOTICE

THIS DOCUMENT IS BEST QUALITYPRACTICABLE. THE COPY FURNISHEDTO DTIC CONTAINED A SIGNIFICANTNUMBER OF PAGES WHICH DO NOTREPRODUCE LEGIBLY.

-----

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIIS PAGE (07ven Date Entered)

REPOT DCUMNTATON AGEREAD INSTRUCTIONSREPOT DCUMNTATON AGEBEFORE COMPLETING FORM

t. REPORT NUMBER 12_ CESO0 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER

[4. TITLE (mid Subtitle,) FOEATSO.ECETO TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED

MSISPIRIVER. volume j.; Appendix. 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER -.

7. AUTHOR(a) S. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(*)

*Raymond M. Mischon DACW37-77-C-0075

9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT,'TASK0

Midwst eseach nstiuteAREA A WORK UNIT NUMBERS

425 Volker Blvd.* Kansas City, MO 64110______________

11 CONITROLLING OFFICE NAME ANC ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE

U.S. Army Engineer District, St. Paul

Corps of Engineers 13. 'NUMBER OPAGES

1135 USPO & Custom House St. Paul, MN 55101 _______________

747MONITORING AGENCY NAME a ADDRESSQif different In=m Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS. (of this report)

ISO. DECL ASSI FICATION/ DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE

16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report)

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abstract entered in Slock 20, If different from Report)

IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

*Issued in two volumes.

IS. KE w'WORDS (Continue onl roverae, side if necesayan~ d identify by block nuunber)

LOCKS (WATERWAYS)

BOATS (RECREATIONAL)MISSISSIPPI RIVER

24. ABST'RACT (Carfue an reverse etde It neessary sod Idenify by block num ber)

This report contains the findings, conclusions and recommendations for the-U~pper Mississippi Recreation Use and Small Craft Lockage Study. The study

area extended from Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota to just north of the

confluence of the Missouri River with the Mississippi, north of St. Louis,:io.

The overall objective of the recreation lockage study was to document __

present usage and develop a model for recreational use forecasting.

DO 11 JA 7173 ETIMFI o655OOEE UNCLASSIFIED

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Wh~en Dara Entered)

0 SJ

METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE AND SMALL CRAFTLOCKAGES ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VOLUME II

FINAL REPORTJuly 26, 1978

Contract No. DACW 37-77-C-0075 7

MRI Project No. 4387-D ~.*

Accession For

-iTIS-0-A&IDTIC TAB 1Unannounced 1Justification

Distribution/ -. *Availability Codes

Avail and/orDist cial

For 0

U.S. Army, Corps of EngineersSt. Paul District

1135 U.S. Post Office and Custom House*St. Paul, Minnesota 55101I ITRIBUTIONSTTM TA

Approved for public releose%Distribution Unlimited

U ~ - wV? w -

PREFACE

This report contains the findings, conclusions and recom-mendations for the Upper Mississippi Recreation Use and Small

Craft Lockage study. Throughout the study, MRI worked closely withthe St. Paul District. Some of the important study benchmarks in-cluded: the initial presentation in St. Paul recommending the rec- 0reation lockage survey, the subsequent survey which was conducted

during the months of July and August, the public participationworkshops held at three key cities along the Mississippi River,and finally a presentation of MRI's findings, conclusions and recom-mendations. . ,.

Volume II of this report contains the appendices whichdocument the multiple regression analysis and gravity model utilized

to forecast potential marina markets for the Mississippi River.Appendix E contains the documentation for the forecasting modelitself. It is anticipated this model will continue to undergo revi-sion as data coefficients and other important variables affecting

lockage are studied.

The project director for this study was Mr. Raymond M.

Mischon. The survey instrument was designed and supervised by .4Mrs. Greta O'Keefe and Ms. Cheryl Fellhauer. Because of the statis-tical techniques and computer analyses utilized in this study,several individuals were involved at various stages. Mr. LeroyAdams, Senior Computer Specialist, and Mr. Mike Sharp, Senior

*Statistician, performed the regression analysis and assisted indeveloping the forecasting model. Mr. Jim Miller, Consultant in

Computer Science, supervised preparation of the survey data andprovided all analyses of the data. Mr. Barry Sanders, also Consul-tant in Computer Science, provided assistance in the gravity anal-ysis. The on-site recreation lockage survey was accomplished byfour college students from the Kansas City area. These were 0Messrs. John Bingham, Paul James, Ray Mischon, Jr., and Graham

Wheeler.

Special thanks go to Mr. Jim Holleran, Outdoor RecreationPlanner, and Mr. Don Wadleigh, Water Resources Planner, both with

the St. Paul District; also to Mr. Dave Arndorfer of Roy F. Weston,

Inc., who supplied data from the Lake Superior Boating Survey.

A V 'W W W W -'W

".................................

Many other Corps staff from the St. Louis, Rock Island, and St.Paul districts assisted in collecting and providing interpretationof data. It has been a pleasure being a part of this benchmark -study, and we are certain that the results will have long-lastingbenefits in planning facilities and services for recreation craft

on the Mississippi River.

MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Raymond M. Mischon, ManagerLeisure/Recreation Programs

Approved:b

A. E. Vandegrift, Dire orEconomics and Management

Science Division

I .

p. . 5. •

-- O-

_" . . - --

v4""•"". ""

4P 4 0 A

r TABLE OF CONTENTS: :1

Page

Appendix A -Survey Instrument.. .. ............. A-i

Appendix B - ignificant Chi-Square Relationships; .. .... B-i

Appendix C -Regression Analysis ... .............. C-i

Appendix D -Gravity Model Documentation;.. ......... D-1

Appendix E -Recreation Lockage Forecasting Model and Out-4putsi......................E-i

Appendix F -Recreation Use Forecasts,. .. ........... F-i

Appendix G -Similar Project Analysis of Recreation Use on

iv

w .. w ---P w

APPENDIX A

SURVEY INSTRUMENT

A-i1

~ ~~~~~ A ~ w---- S

MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE425 Volker Boulevard

Kansas City. Missouri 64110

Questionnaire No.1 4

Inteirviewer: Date: . Le:- -

Day of Week: (1) Monday(2) Tuesday(3) Wednesday(4) Thursday

(5) Friday 13

Lock No: Direction: (1) Up_. (2)Down__--14 16

Type of Craft:

(01) Runabout___ (05) SlouaeIPontoon boat_(02) Cruiser, motorized__ (06) Fishing boat___(03) Cruiser, large__ (07) Other (pleaset specify)--

(40 ft or over) ______________17

(04) Cruiser, salig

Number of persons: -

19What is your place of residence?_______________

(City, State, Zipcode)

Where did you put your boat in thes river?_______ River Mile:__-____ ___ ____ ___24

Road Miles: _

27Is your boat moored there? (1) Yes_ (2) No__

30

tf not, did you transport your boatby trailer to the launch ramp? (1) Yes_ (2) No. - I

31What is the destination of this boat trip?_______ River Mile: -_ -*-

O"ti nIre trio how may locks will you lockthrough?_____________________ 35

A-2

Is this a (1) one-y trip?_ (2) round trip?37

U. this a (1) one-ay trip?..(2) two-day trip?(3) three day@ or se?..., 38

Are you traveling in a group of boats? (1) Te_ (2) No_ .'

If yes, how maay boats are in your group?.... - - 040

Other than boating, which of the following recreationalactivities vill you participate in oan this trip:

Fishing-42

Sviming -

Waterskiing "___-

44Coming., r

.. Picni..-c,,king __"_-__ .45

On the dredge spoil islands46

Other areas47

Other (Please specify):

48

'9

50

'-", 51

* * Frrw May 1 through Labor Day, how ma trips of this Si

type will you take?

(1) 1-5 _(2) 6-290 (3) 21 and over _52

Do you have any caomets concerning Locke or lockusage?______________________

53 .

~55

;'-''* 57 - ".

.... 59--

A- 3

-U.~ 'WiY U W W *W w w -WS

APPENDIX B

SIGNIFICANT CHI-SQUARE RELATIONSHIPS

(Recreation Lockage Survey)

* B-1

-~w W 'W W - w ww ' W w w .1

a a7

if c

a 2z 4 LL~

* : ,. zp

ev 7 7a- t

-- - - - - - - - -V..

w~ zC

X Ilk x 4

- - - -- -4

a- I-C V>CO l I cc

Cz z

4 0.C 'C N - C . i i

7~ aaa- *I itI

0; IU Q. 1 7..I

1If 7 z v 0~or'4~~- *C 1. Z IXra - 4 I 1

-ua a T m 4 4 a-aL

w tj t-A a T C I La Wu 2 I I 77

a~~~ ~~~~ z 6o w 10-o- 0-0- I1caz Ca- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ l W9***1 * I * L. A C 0

4 0I r.CN oC I 51 . iBCC-2

- w It w i. I I. 2 - C

L..

LL4

a. -a41? 0 U2 c c

c -d C-c I. c - u

L.. 7 a.

tr ~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - - ----- -- v

c Cr arI. IU I.

S. * *C 0r

1 4 3

r,. 4p I -a aT L

N II N

C ..- IL

- LL- I.

CL C C

L)

T .10 c* C U-0 j_ 1:* X Z 4 _

- -c ac - ccra

7~~ XlI4U7 2(I'' N. 0 u -

C 4 49 -.

C 4 N I I 1 *B-3

I w w I W

At

:. . 2 .

~LL

or-

CP C.;

a. * -. £le o4L

* . -A ..

*" * c I. - w

a 0

ort "; 0 1 m tm '2

C 0 C

0. .c I A.C nL

I - C 3r 1- a VV

> 0- - C" 0 0 0" 0 :.

"" IZ c or >.1"-x- I CL4 C0 1C n .IP

-- "

'-+'.1 or . .

I -- C --.

*u* 0 4 Y I1

4- 2 > " I.-

0"- z> u *- - 1

9 = r L 3 t.-o At

o ,.2 4 . . -- +

4 I

w, Co, w w . w

' -* I .. ' , t'-

2 UI III L t4 ,+2

- " "* ..- + + 0 "+ ::::i:

z * 7 C 2

"z z LI: w c I P2 C U.. -

4'- * CU a-E t -* t - CO . rr .;, . ;f' . -

4--.- *i I= -. CI II I *r < "

+:V - - - - - - - - - - - - U .. N-i- - iia a U a. + " 2 C '.~ I'

+.... C 0 I I . U .- £4U, .- +" --I I .a ,. .41 U I .CU U4]4 UP- 2 P.C 0

W ' *w ww 1Pw. VIP.. 0. c ~ ... 2 U

-:~ --.

N 4-- -- U £44"

2 )- U-U -- 3,£-.

• I " U "' U .l .+-J .- - .- ' :- . '- .- -

.4:"" : " " ' 4 U U I " ..... N -t ~,,' . .. . : . . . - . . -. . .. *)-. , e l . .C 2 ., . .

z

-r 0 ~

V Ii I

C

c.. w-rk

0. - -L - - - - - - - .( &

a. cL* a- W P-IzMaM -W

cc~~ L: 7 z

- - - -z - C

IL

It 3 3 i f cp

0 0r If 04c C r7Ip 9 r4a

44 4

C 'A -j 0- 1 aaj

7 .- LC .4 -j_ o

Cr 0-S c. c c OLa-.4a. t

-c x LL

x0 at nwCI Co.

B-

w. 'w ;A. !w W

-l 4ItIV

1.

C W!

0 2

c. c 4

to,2 £4

0 41r 0.fn

tO *U0 u 0ItIt

* * C

31 c

c- 0 -4

U

4r -

0Li - I

I: a Vcy

I4 0. - 1 L, LA. fl.;

m *v ul0 IC -

I-'r CC cc

40 N

I0 AI tI01 I N j. 's I* c

w *I40 I CL * I c 4.c I c if

P * 4I C I CN f I C P. 2 CC ICx * 7. z4 0

It I&-

It- a. I of £. M - L& C39 w o-£4 a w "I (. £. )I I*k

IC * -- -- IIt L;1 . u - z

tI. -- : Z I. If, Ir'.II

a cX *4 9 1-.II . .. r j o- -F£.1 a t- -- ,->' w U 1tL4 ar~ - a4 c *0 4. .2 2N~3 0. U 7 ZI X X X 2 L

S..Z Z I C C C

a t. * - I I I ~ 0. I)LB-62

12

o CCC

cc 2

* t ! h It LL

z. a

In II_j 0 n

0~~ ~ ~ ' 1 f I Ueq. PA. CD c

N , 4;..... - c &

WI IV I U. Z , -c

I 'n

ir, 111 w I t lIn Ifr M,. -I r,4; 9 P c C

IA. C';& t - U' i .r . ZIU I a a w

IN a z 6

- - -- - WL

2~~0 .L . I.

34r U~ CDl 0.

it 06- :c It IP4a8 f 01 -

6-I m~ I 6

X CiC

z It*m 0 I c I *r 4l

Ic 2.I I, CL a~ I r::" 2, Y1 mc ft

I I. Cr' I. Ir .'

dic.

11 0 It II '~

r~~ :r a 2

46 I& . -1 z . V WCZ 0 'z 'I -I.. i 1 1

x rr -a- _j-'- = V.- In - x4M 1- 1- r T W C .fWtft

.0 * 5 0 _j or vwz f.uu-. 44

a , 49 C' 0-946~~ 2 W *' j 'q 0 Ill-

IA 0 o Q u, 4X4 j~I _j uw f(A11

B-7. .

'w 5, v w ft w44 v--- -,.U- w 0

- .? , .- , ,..... . . . . . . . . . .- . .'.. ..............

Lii

-I,-- P

CIL a

*. ,A. , ,-' .

U1w

C i . I. .

LA ,< '° ":i

, '.,4" .•

Lo , 0 .-. .

S... P - M

z .,, cS . -

N, " *,,ZI

-0 0

I..- ~ ~ ~ 1 0" • -, •i p.i l. i. ""

-r- --, -- , --. -- -- -o I cw

I oSf- f. f.7 I IIc Ii I e -

CS .= .' I ./ -

I. S - I t A. I.

LL,

34 An*l! C' i I 4 Z I I Il

i I. ' 4. l i

0' I:- ... S, .=,,.

IN, - - - - -r

-:

-'----

• '% -• • • i -. l l- - - - 1lii

~~~~u S 64 I Cf

a-l& 4 . &. L.=.4i 5 I a ~I Ia M 0

-t i I ' I I t I 4 I 14 2.- 00l:i,'

we a I C w

iI I a 0 1

I0 1& I I M: 0.- :a4"t ro

6.0

IVj ! I. w UU -.-.-

- l. , I.- I I ,: w I )k. I. -I'Il I 1114.1.. 9 0.00 0 4 I, II IftN. Sl IIU 2 WIN

a-il n .l I - . I N ' lir,. r',#0l.-, .0 V' 0 i,

0 S a (z m 'I z I cAI. .01 I

4 & I I I.- I. a -t c0-: wit Na-N m

L" *4* NU .l "S- P.. z2 U.L'.L. 111

2f V U00.. IR II to.~ A #IC wC *.5 0. 1J-tLAJ AaLC- I

N.,_ - 4.,. . :. . :. -. . . .. " . .U C C O S .- , ",. " j - ....4I . Al . . . ". ..

4 p -W IL.N 16 W1 2.z I4-

ol C LL P-t- cC' I.

0.~ 4 )1- 1 CI Ii" ?4 t27 lf ACC 0 C tAI.-.. c/ -V

I..~~~4r *0.5 c:~ *4...I~xM Z 4Ka-.jJ 011A a X

W/ T w -Al -C et 44 Ji

ft9 2T W 7 X'- 4 0~4 Z L J0aLI L. S . tUUA~ X~If'Il Ir. w

B-8

Ap 0 w.

a LIL

o m,

Z z0.1 z C

I1

m m a i 41-- .

I. LLI

1.~ 10 r- , 0 C IW X S

N I c 71

c 4 ;, 3L

I. io fnNI i CC4 CO 1; i

-9 z

oil-LL 0 II

2p -LI C* 11A 6- C EIf

m;% W.. CO Cv02 1-10jCL .- C a C

0t c I C 1.-I~h % 1..Off0.

cc . -j I 0 44 Ctr 1w I. I- (r --. ,= I 2?L~

VS. 1: 1 . II I.4 - ..~~c. W: _j i w If. U- (P IA.L -

'0 a NIP~CI~~.OISI~. *B-9 c

a lN . IN . 1 *, a~- ~ '* ~* * C~ I j0 0 C I P.: --- 7-7.'

z

0 06

Of

At'I0 L I4I

c

*r0*0 z*ix I"

39.* a. ii: '4 Zn0r 4

c-- ----- b

o * zzoo . r cc I . Z

.10 M 1 - 1 .

401- - - - --- - - -'

Ia c -L o, n c I ILr N 4:I

2 S. II CC ~ ~

*> If , .&M, I' Ir 2I f

ft a mp 4 I -NP C I' N CE >-I.- I im I 4

C.I *c 'I , . , U'D 0a 0 I II. - 0 'r

' *0 ;) N ,C.I aP4IVli- j-I O

*~ - CIN kr 2 ' f--.-6 - I-P- - -. I IN~I r - 3 I-fltt L4 oI

Q: 'v Z, If, 1

Aq ~ ~ ~ . C z L U7 1,cU, U)U1w ( P 1

C II -' Id ' . 11. * 117 77 f.

At,

0,6L.f. ub m o -4pm~~ Cl0O NV;4.. z V. 1 c

41 X1 M 1, b- C -

Jc 4 W LL 0 ' T w))Z))P wZ . Z24 a- 4 Vu z It U i..I 1 . 41 141 m-0 -c wP I..ZU' I .. .*~~~~ 4 --a C.a I - - : PciC

W .0 .P -- ,p -*0* 1

*~ -- -: ' -- --------

* . - j7 -

a >

- -- 4

AL 4 In

.. rI t-*C c 0

I In 'c 'L m ,a U

C U.~

* I -

Ir* Ie .I % 1C 0I I j -, af f

kIN ., I- C .f CFU 1 1

-c . -r I cc, 0l C V 4

cU I

All > I .wI

cc - SI 3 IA.C 4 MZn4 C! 7 2

cr~ s z .

it~~ ~ ~ o-m : I

z I If II c

c In ls ' .

C14 or It. c 'D. N i, 2

1 -- X ill 00I

-r i, f a I L8V t l .N f

-t- LL N. 1- 41 11 *& 41CCLa I i L I r 4

'CI to 1& II..0 i w o- a -jjc

I- c lo. u: a-, - v 4

C~~~a if V I C Ua~Z 12

* ~ ~ f 0 uJ 0 sp 0t- I IOC-i at. ~ * ~ i

w a o u4 -gi w I 2 '2 Np L LOZ r, x

3.9 Z .~U ZZ a2 r 0M 1 2I~ I. N'U-.- W .; -K 1.

* ES U.UU1 fjj N1L1.I .I y 'I.C.C w

W -W .90 'W;O~ a, W -Ia.-bh w3 I .,. 11.

Is.

o P_

* I

0

t, M P .>:

a. I . "'4 "

.,. , " * tz 1 -

0 7! 7 U.

I, CL a.

IT I - - I w-

w I" I N I C I It c

Q .111~.

. t, ,, - .m$I. t l 1'10 -s- .

o , . 2, :. 1 ..

- Iz c I

2~- 4.1 0 I

u 141 ', '- I 1.2- '0

I I C , . - I &:c

I

a -1z i .1 1. (A lipa

~~~~,~_ _j 11C ~ 4 O E 24A "I j a

P. I "-r, o . e - - . . *+ . . . . . l-" . " . .c c

-4'T T ." c '. Z. Z I_ .0...0 ,Z

C. I4* uI gjj V e I

,z ec.- .~ ~ EB 412

ii *C.P.~C"l~ii

1A..

* 'A- IA -

u C

z c

4, 0 L T c

*0 I . = -

Ix c 0' "

Ir- , 7' N ,0

I.

uj i

0, a, 0, Z I- - I u- t ,

4 . it. m 0-.1

".- .*_ . 0Iwi::::-:

CIL I o r

C 0 .0 ; "I "a

,,. U Iw.z...I.., ,, .... ,

-c •- I r" P- Ix I it.* II tr Cc:

I~Ix

; a . ." • I C u O . .I- . - - -Lr .,

&r, 10 1 cf

-" " - - -

* 16

I,,,.+.-., 0.. oM t. XI. u u .+ =,, ,= r , , -9 w

20 of

- . .I W•

* L .

- - 9 04 - o- . w " I.

0

"." t Ic 1A

,-+.:. . , . *, 4.

,V l o "

u I. -. ;:

I ,Il-P-o.'N--r gir.' .-1 0

::- ..- :: ,.II'.+,,'I II "I lik ".• I • •jI- IP '•

?. : .+ . . . . ." . .* - .,. + , . . - , . . . , . . . . I + + • + . " . . . +. + . +

O..

- -e -

* c

U. -- 0

0.. 0 U. I

N U .A

N, U.. I i

U. c 0

' rr

If'

-- -

0cr CC >W c

I * .• 0 U" "

* 4"0-I I-- - -

i. k- m2* I f M. C a -c

6.-) C~ Q C> u

o - I IU If

r- " 1 4 , .I 2 . I1, , I min m.I -',D 0r , W

i, 1 1.-

C~~ IOI Alin<-

- *0 - C

,.. 11, I * I LI * 4 C

If 7 If. U~ 0 0

J s - w ' C, ,

0 U CIf I cI . ; I4 -

6..Z C Nt

C.- 0.~. 4 L *Cz OO^ t,6V' 'j I, Cr - Z

NO , I . - c c r -44 x L

NN C . U., -j a L .

-) Z IC C . hw . L .. w

-°. a"* NI. 04N'N" ° • •. . " • " 0B "4

. t . , l . . . .. . . .' "4 * * I 4 . I -- -*

z--- .. ' ". +'L;I.C C .. t ,u + - j +

- . . . . . *1

-iS

S

0

APPENDIX C

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

0

0*

c-i

-w *'..~@ W U U w U w w -w w w 0

CORRELATION BETWEEN PLEASURE BOATS THROUGHTHE LOCKS AND VARIOUS FACTORS

Multiple regression analyses were utilized to test therelationship between selected variables and the number of pleasureboats passing through the 28 locks on the Upper Mississippi River(1976). The variables (xl through x1l) are shown in Table C-1. -These variables are explained in the body of the report. The SPSSprogram outputs from the regression analysis follows Table C-1.It may be noted that two separate flow factors were utilized. FlowI is in terms of lock flow averages; Flow II is in terms of regional

flow averages. The model containing the regional flow averagesaccounted for slightly more variance than the model utilizing lock

flow averages.

The variables are listed as follows:

Y =Pleasure boats through the locks -0

x1 = Commercial marina slips (above and below the lock)

= Flow factors

I. Lock flow averages

II. Regional flow averages

x3 = Commercial lockages

x4 = Miles to next lock (above and below the lock)

x5 = Recreation quality of pools (above and below the lock)

x 6 = Commercial marina slips (upstream)

X 7 = Commercial marina slips (downstream) 0

X8 = Miles to next lock (upstream)

x = Miles to next lock (downstream)

Sxl0 = Recreation quality of pool (upstream)

xll= Recreation quality of pool (downstream). .

C-2

W 1P ,, W W W - , W U ' V

-A- -a- ". r . • •w t •a • • .at . . - •

- N 3% ( ~ .0 (~ ~ In a, 3% .70 w ' ~T% N3 %.3 77

o 0

3' f, C,. .0 00 C o oa 7I In 0 . . .4 (

00 '

nl 4-

7j % 0 - 7 7 ~ 0 0 % ' 3 0 7.. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C ai C-. .7I('C% %.NN(N0..

go CD 0 3, 0 c~ -77 - - - . 0,,3 - - - .- - - -

In >

ca C -

C.D 00 a

0.0

- r.N ~ .. N I~ = ~ ~ j~ % J~ ~%* J~ ( f C-3% J%(

CORRELATION BETWEEN PLEASURE BOATS THROUGH

THE LOCKS AND VARIOUS FACTORS .

1. Flow I Lock Flow Averages

2. Flow II - Regional Flow Averages

4 -..

C-4

-:9 U ,- 0 S 0 Sp' : '"".O • "• • :•... qP " O ; O -- ,O O O

FLOW I

LOCK FLOW AVERAGES

c-5

V~~ ~ wV ol w

44

CAC

I -a-

z CU, C-

0 I uex C MaI

*; C Ci2 'D1 1-1

F0 Ir C,0

CI fr U 0.. >

I..r

cr4 N2CI v IF I r.~fl

LL) 61 a34 0 0

ii* MJ Fa "~~

10~- a C r40 t

O31 or

IC~~~ 91 -C 4 4~' fto It 4 U ~ 4 ,t~ 43 .

~ C F

0~ w -0 -J

z 1'

.4 .'0.

61 I . 10

to. i, P4 el to gr,@tI~ @ e

-w In302 . I- c- . - N D b %n

0 I ~ 0 INDe~ - u~I AD w ~ * N P 0 P

11.0

zl fu- -t Il' N D ~ C

- 6.

0. It

IL ,C IL U

'It OU, *n 4 4- 4'N cc;' f

*~ Z'

U, I, ' I

I, C

c ~ ~~~ ~4 '

- ~ ~ c It en. ~ , ~ 4 4 4

6- U,,N t-0z in11

6.4 kACc . I I6 0 .

ft ft 1C-8

IMP oWu

l t- I-

2@In*~~I 4.I ,I

m 14 w fpN0 4 U' 44 U2 1 ' £ 0 04 0 '

a ~ 0 ; :1a

'N '4

N I

w In C.

CL IU I- $ a In IV

N Z 40 NL4 4 *

*j It~

* S ,

cc 'coN

0. ~U 10 z ~ ~ N - -

C~L Ifl*

vI .0U :uI a:

IIf IN CA 0-0

.I w -W0 N0 2 - 04 k II

IInIn

Inp

"I w~)'

I.' NU n1 I.J I

: N' a: S

- -, 1 ~ 'I *U '9

lt qp ,I w o

!a cp'- 040NOe N o

P4 0 04 t 0 0

I o I Scc) IV~ 4 l N ,.0 i.

INAN04~NP.~44

-A W 0

1 * 1.g 4

M .0 I. 1/

*r I

c "It: .9 owl Iskj U1, . 4

* ~ N4 N W4 .

IrI trV, gLL, 0 4 /I~

c SI 1001 1 111 91IN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 N '.. ~ ~ ** 7

U.*' 1p I' U

CLL

mi

'o . to - c

'a 44/ IIV (W N

I.. I 4 t I

S4

. m i

-J61 4 g. 4

or .400.0,0ON

N ON

V 0 - 4 9~11- z W- 62l,. SM ;. I ~ 0u. * j IC a..J .2 C 8 N

a. 24 W11 4

C * U. -a 1p..4

- - --- - -- L - j

- 2 .C..10

r I -

*i .t o. I o M"6.'" t I ,; h,

fo s ' m ff ., aft

* - i*.N4g4-u4qe~*

- ; I IU * 4 *4*a "*a S ,. I,.. 4 N i, PI1 ' q

- P- 1,a[aw* a a a O,,aP. w

op a_. -. M 10 ,-

. . r

10 * ha 4p1 In m NN~ ~ 11"es *

... It -dA. . 4

S-

-' P! S ~'hI

t a e 0 0 C

it 0 .ISO

0 I *"" :aV0 Z j

5 P 'a

- -Q' ,h' ,0 1 I I 4'

":.-'.-a,- . . . . i :' au 140 0NS0

":-. ':."I N, z l .

::::.:.: , . • c, . . .

i-i

C . 4 IZ 5 A'1902 , I - I - N. -

.'. ,.C- 11

* * "..I 1.

,,.. a I:.-- ,

' :: : :::! ft:::::: z k- - -'::

* a .'

I'0' IP Nil t a0U~N0 2 1 (P *0 ,C l

A ~ ' ..

Ir. 1 fu* ~~~41.0;4 I. 1 .CD I. I U ~ P

4 . S ~~~owP8- 0 0 - -I , An ~ a *

%I: ~ ~ CV . oi4

Z-9 Fl I

K.

WN0 1 3 . 1 110 2.r2

i I Ic

0 v. lr 0 c -i

II W- I 1DN~I W2 of 14 14WI0 IN 1 ~~

106 w - IC000'-.gP 0a 1 iIS. 0.1 P1*** '

- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ A 4 . 11- I 1 111 '0 0 =1 m

14.1

I, cr en a cc- N

-9 S W l- C 0P u 1 f*~K a N P .0 .0 P

* hi - 0 .0 N.0 P10 fnC 1 0 * - .

ow LI 1i I- 'l .0CC.*

Jhd w 30 0. -A0

I ccO.0 V5 WO M aCC *

-~~C 12.00P

40w 0 . w 0 'W Wi

ata

j0 If6.)w i , I~ 4 C~ 0n'0Cq Ij 0, 0K-0 ff

* I ,40 -C

Ir i I Ar-

-410

0 mt V lwi 0 0 Aw t

I- 0.4

NO0 a, 9'N- I

*r ,u I ,,J-jI & ID 4P, 1 N J -D; 0

I~I II 0 o I N ms' It IMI m F le " N w

c 0c V 1

ODIA~

fti. 0. 6 I-I- f tI c E

*~I CC, ~I-i

10- '0M 0 0' .

m X, Nt 01 's % * N N

z f

In

4 l 1Nt *fj .

c ,

12 It4 a xa

01.1 . * Cc-13

* 4 *0 C

z m cw@ ~. M

w . N

Lo f-I In a

M.i fn - i cy in

4 I L,An ap Iccg ,

LI X!J N r,

* ifr- j, N N N Ago:

= .0 4ILI I *4W*( a U Dwf

%. .1 1i~ t l-nf P! 0L4 0 4 4

*~ 'I u4

-;pL - M. - , ,il12ns j 'C' ", 4"40

Lf 0' cc I- a. m

im I N l) f M

C r I 0 *NIO0 on. L"CM0

cc.7 w I !W 0, P- 4D C M *.J

hi u.i-- 0 0~

- cc I'* "

o Zj Ip' a t.5(1 '1 ' IN U . 0: E-#C'C ,a

'm Il 34. 'Dc C 4 cy fu:- - IZ : =' fn NP-10 P. 94U 4' c0.

&I W. I W12,

1 W ZI. - 0 4 N

Cj - N 1 t * * I

C- 14- C P

La N Nv I '0 c

I 4 ow M~4

*~4 N! oS5.5.

Iu0 .z:n

0:N

I. 5- -t (9, 4K

v4 ) I 'K

n -) op c 4 - 11 u i'a' ft:D ft ot af.t o u

ar.S 5n 4, Ln oGj44 f A!

Cp N l o

N m:0 elf sin 4c4.oPieo4IM-qm0

m w~ I- II 4 I1 w. S 5or

Sz I..

0.r

F- m4 c5 INcc - IN 5m or 0M~E5..

uj tn m r-IA Mo M o4n IN" ~*- . 0 ' f

-~~; in 4 0D 5

A 11c 1 n, 0tr N tS7£ C C -0 r

cr d' (P C 1t N '*D N C * .-

IN- *O >wosIn

4D W! ,- orCet a- 1- 9 c 1 5- A 'w

a 0*1l~~;

L''2A* CL t 0.m.i. C '

z- VI1 0 ft It C S X IPX2X II

O ~ ~ ~ ~ C 15~'C- 4I2

4p 4pC P'0 0 4 4 -1

u l ru D 0 Fn40 1;

00 P

: c )f0'W, .

,0S 0

In 0 li 1tC ,

SV 4. . . .a~.~

1-6' ,, m ~ p

a e1 0 w~ 10 It -~ e

'0ft

IIo o 0 0

ru n1 07Iat . "OD41% Poll:-

jft 1.9I OA ,

'ADflJ

7 zC. 2

Sr -I C 1O0 O.E4O

S ,Z ~~O-U'MNO'

49

- 4 C UP11-."

ftS Q

w (j0 mo a-,x m Ol e

4c- 16

hi *.%T w '0

71

FLOW II

REGIONAL FLOW AVERAGES

il

C-1

* w w w w Iw w .0w. w'

S CL

cI. d -j o

V

u CI -Co

bc c

I. =s I C

Qf N ICU -0 i-"-ZI

f. >c -"IJIfI 0 r" I 3 aC

L, 2.S L).J >1111 z

--- -. --. - - ---

a - a

C I'. t 6c0

I >i :. >-- 4 I >

.4 - .4 ~ ~~-ILA4~~~~ ~~~~~ cf~ I (~ C J 0 ' ~ 0 J I.~.

*t I 1.

4 z 444!. a z 11 aa a -4 CLaa..- >5 a Cp

1. 4 41

CLU

It- 5.ca.18

.- w 2 w. I. f l-

010

00

*o 0

01

10

U C 4 c c

K ftaocm

Ii 0tr.1 6.c

a M .7 17 -.ml In

Ln'f -@o4

8~ IC "IJ cc~ o

-J 1

N - H 0 . 1 C i ,

IN Dc:I zo) 'C ~~~ C - p. - NC:l

K~ OM 1

M, I~z

Fl. 4 am N.

III M i In dCD 1 *. . . . .

Lr A M'

.,C

tP If

4.~

f 14g *I

It C

a. cc- I I w.

I4 ct C.. -

- r z -. I 1 oe.4 - ~I I) N 1.

I a c iI p- 0

p. lS .c. .CL 'aI

a w

I I 12U. IC 4D 1O0q o #,W V O r c3Nr4 m ., 0

cy, ID C qo F- 4 c o3 .

w3 Nw le , -

.44

ONN

212

44

Ir. -r c I

T Im

*# II I - . -F.. 4. U N

-r to- 'c40o.w

tI c

c36.

> ! , .

i .> r-u!t7

Lr- It co *4

A. a - .3 300) M.'3 3

-~I 4 433. p36j .3 32 .t m .

m 2 2 3Ct I-I

as- 411% * .. 0'3. 3..

F. C -21

-* El (. *". ..

za IN

,.. ,.. I + ,W . •. _- I IAZ ItPo~ 0 oS .o)

"* ' 14 °o)e I ~ N M .. .l

1A

CD 0 - 6 P

* ' • .. ., *.

"' ' " n :D

" p..+' ).. .

,m t

U N II

,S ' 1 i. 0+ 1- ..--+ ..

at) a '-I - 4 - : ;~ i

. a. aa

a ~ ~~C a.4 Ma* *

I 4 +,,-,,+,,.0,

' . Oz .- " ' P1 0c

p..~~ IV 4 p)4 1- I £ . Is i

+*

o a *a 11

p y ,- ,-'I I

I .• " .°"-.

M a to 4 4

I 1

I- I za "

tt 1. 1, I ,it- Il.. a j • o ,. ,CI ,

a'a

- . . . I ii II i o.k a. I i r.I ,"• a l;r-i i q .

Ix 4

"." ~C-2-

'It ' A I r , ..

I 4 U

, -i '- • ; .. ..

7. CD N!

,L_ " "a ' ""

"a-.. , I I ' ' - -

LI LI N i 1 1E

in a. ! 4. . 1 i

-. ,w w )-... IW

£O 0 A0 "CP i 0 IN mz% 'I a a

-M I a2

0 NII) # * 0,l* - *4nr a I~~~. p* ' I.I~ ~ '' I~ -IN£

U.I I E U" - I'. N C A

10 cc 14 a 0 f '

U4. :LP

X,- c

L" L. EU Io ME mw

"MCS UI V a, 02~~k III OD ~(f0' I :

Op V

cz > I v C*. r4l

4100

61 0

2 'I M4U)U

- j W I .0'C~lA m I .I. C *cC* *

p1 11"I ' ' N

C t5 SIta4

-U . '0. 020C I I. - 0 ~ ' *j' -

W q 19 . Ar.

L..l

I 4 0tOS.C cto- ~ c I t I l) O~ 0 .l *

Z - *M 0

I 1 Ih0

r I2 -

I& w 0-r IDf

MU 0, 1I W ft I : .0 e

Ii. 4 4 1 '

4 *r C u 0a

C. a I

we 4 ~ - am -c

*r -6 ccC CtrI 4, , 4 c t

0t~~ 0 4 4 4

-L a. MI 0t.0tCL

Ir r 41. 0~N 0 1

rC ID DI

6 z

Le LAU ,I lz B

j -2 - ' d E .'04 4 tI I.. - 4 C f

kc w Ii ~ t~ C C C n

1.3Ci0I C 00 C l

2 I 1000. .C'C-24N .0~

w w qZ0p

A I W * P .

* - UN'u

:F

CIE

*c .

M r- c- - i P-& q te*~ O

a. 5n . LA 0- &

'I. w I

ZI 7

I to

* z-

06- tr PC1 c'~ U P y It

oI O.L P- - £ .0** w 14 m

F-L a- i 2 JP

In -

it 4j A(Z .i C k t - N ' C '

u- a. .t u1lN PC~l 'o a. .C . b N

2 ~ ~ ~ ~ P o . N ~ - an

39- 2- 2. -

-J Lu It C-25N '

Cw qS w w.N C'

Ic I u T C mU), W I n

U I IL 0 It If%

t 2 1-

U' 4

M.In0 J I ,C

U) *t In M4 ~ I

-, L1t

Itn

I I--

Lr IL

m - 12

4 .0 IL - c

6.11

- ~ t INZ I 4 4 C

It-.J I- i I 4r

L224 1 I1 ,1

.010

C- 26

ofl

Ile0 4 W 7

I ~*~~~ I U A M

- .4i 8 0 0

m ILA

4'

cc P.- I41

8~ 0 1 trJ 4rM nMp n-

SIIL

1L IW 44 r:

it" Iit

ii a. IN on' a'Dll,4 4l Ir 10 (% 4m11ont c

W NI I r r

.1 a Q 1' . c 74 r L. t

LP~~~O'a.'0 1 C ' .0 0Cc a I18 a. fl, 4 m 4 a

l.. OO IN .I . ;

MD I I

a IL I - 'c 1PC w -. ' - I

I ~ I 't 2 9L0 C ~ NI4 0'r 4.. 1 .2 her N U -

8irl > I* ~~~ an ora ft ef N p-

W) f -

C 'iit 4. a

-. a 'C 40a 1:0, I. C j0 S ' C -

MC 0 .4 41 V C a

- - -- - . a ~ -. -. a I I

o .r ~aC-27

0 0

*~~~~ - 6 . Z hip, ~1 -9 6q 066. m

2D f -in

* 6: hi~h I N

*' IllC- n !c t 1

cr -3 a

uh -C Ni

00 .0 Im Vo4:rNN Sn -r a

w 6.h

*j C

60 10 Lt l

-j .. 2 ; 0 " '

I z a.

I ~ ~ I6 6) 4 6ri.6N .flhE1U~ 4 ,CI~ * 0L0

~.0'6ij~fO.. N N0

aa C 4

N 11 U N mI6.4 m aU ~ - 10-tC~C6.

- '.6cC '(J 9U M.'0 0uI.....a

*6c 6 ~ , 0 ~ 'a 6

w 6M fu~~ ~ C - .i.z.;6 -* -

N x fni~. II..ki ui Z46. h

* N * 4:I~l. ~. ~-a[- 4 0 2..6,C i a ND M 0' 0 n

0 0f aa 0 w * L

a~~~ ~ 2 U 6 0 N *

66 C 0 0. . P -p W U.

- c O'= a0,0c

c in

S~en. N N4 E~ 4~~

., -'Nfn'Mg* 2 ,'

CC S- F

& cc

N r M IC II 11

S. S.

o ~ ~ ~ ~~ . .~L Lj ... C4~ . .. ..

ac4 4 a.4,CC'C

owl 0

-.o 6)LI -=0- a m 2= O-CO-4

c-2

CORRELATION BETWEEN PLEASURE BOATS THROUGHTHE LOCKS AND RECREATION LOCKAGES

* C-30

*~~~~I UU2 4'UpU

-. . .. ' - .. .

CORRELATION BETWEEN PLEASURE BOATS THROUGH

THE LOCKS AND RECREATION LOCKAGES

Regression analysis was utilized to test the relationship

between the number of pleasure boats passing through the 28 locks

and the actual number of recreation lockages. It was hypothesized

that a strong correlation existed between the two variables. The

regression equation had a simple R of 0.97 and explained 95 per-

cent of the variances. The data for the two variables in the re-

gression analysis came from Corps of Engineers records for all

28 locks and covered the years 1971 through 1977 (196 data points).

This model was interfaced with the Recreation Lockage Forecasting .- -

Model in order to convert the number of pleasure boats through

each lock into the number of recreation lockages.

C- 31

.. . .i .. ..

-.

* - WU W -

'U, C

'Ir j40 L

.0 a -I

4j z a ir n 0

w. 9 -1 x 4 hta I- - l

4A 6 hi 4") Az z l 0m 0 u k i 3.3a6 I ow 0 -

a~U

4..0

V I Iu

w 4

* ~ C 0 0-lh

* Uw '0 --0 I IA

Z ID Nkt

LarJ 11

M Ow in

4r 0

mi~h W ,

4'4

v. I r &U

U .

z c IC I -'t 0: -x c

or IVaf 0 0.

An.O m LU I

It,- .0N it

5" in L:It oca

-9 .

a. I L ~ d

0P t-41 - 0 -Ai aL-O w cc .0

- - e w w a wuI

* CD

* A

*r u

w ur

C C

0 c

ui 5... IL I

at1.

z ft

C-3

in7-

APPENDIX D

GRAVITY MODEL DOCUMENTATION

D-1

K

GRAVITY MODEL DOCUMENTATION

The purpose of this appendix is to give sufficient computer docu-

mentation so that programmers and the technical staff in the St. Paul Dis-

trict may utilize the program and update the lockage forecasts in subsequent

years. |S1. Overall Description of the Model: The gravity model was cali-

brated around the present supply of commercial marina slips in the 28 pools

comprising the Upper Mississippi River. The inputs include population

forecasts, growth in boat registration, distance from market areas to

pools, market penetration rates, and moorage capacity of the 28 pools.

The outputs from the model are essentially the potential markets for

slippage on the Upper Mississippi River.

Gravity models in general are based on the concept that a spe-cific and measurable relationship exists between the number of visitors

arriving at a given destination from specific markets and a series of in-

dependent variables. The most important variables usually are: (1) themagnitude (size) of the population in the market area, and (2) the distancebetween the destination and market. The model typically yields high cor-relation between distance to populated centers Fnd the number of visits.

Correlation with other variables such as income_ of the population, urbaniza-

tion, highway quality, and competition from other recreation areas may ormay not improve the overall results of the model.

The general formula for the gravity model used in the UpperMississippi analysis is: ..

APi b

T i j .. ..

A A2 A n+ +... + n...b b b

di I di 2 din

E S

Where Tij is the potential slip market from county i to pool j

Pi is the total slip market produced by county i

D-2

W . W W * W W W W -W w .

Aj is the total slip market attracted by pool j

dij is the spatial separation of county i and pooi j

b is an empirically determined exponent which expresses theaverage areawide effect of spatial separation between zoneson the amount of slip interchange. (This factor was developedfrom the origin/destination data developed in the 1977 rec-

reation lockage survey.)

n is the number of Mississippi pools (28)

It may be noted in this equation that four factors are of majorimportance: trip productions, trip attractions, spatial distance separa-tion, and the number of areas. Of course, the latter two are simply thedistance between each county and the 28 Upper Mississippi pools, thus form-ing a matrix of 162 primary market counties by 28 peols. The trip produc- - -

tions (the market generated by each county) were compose- of the following

specific variables:

" Population forecasts for 162 counties (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995,2000).

* Boat registration per 1,000 population in 162 counties for1976.

* Growth in boat registration for five states in 1980, 1985,1990, 1995, and 2000.

0 Market penetration rates for 162 counties, six distance zones,and 5 years (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000).

2. Program Flow: The model basically has two component sections.The first section is a subroutine that generates the demand for trip produc-tions; the second portion is the gravity model allocation itself. - .

a. Demand: Figure D-1 shows the overall flow of the model.First, the population input for 162 counties and 5 years (1980, 1985, 1990,1995, and 2000) is multiplied by the boat registration per 1,000 population(1976). This essentially, in terms of the present registration figures, I

, calculates the number of total boats that will be registered for the 5. forecast years. Of course, this assumes that the 1976 per capita rate would

be constant. To provide for future growth, these calculated estimates ofboat registration are multiplied by state growth factors to develop the ad-Justed boat registration for future years. This adjusted figure is an in- 1- --terim model output and provides boat registration for the 162 counties and -

5 forecast years.

D-3

*,*•w. -

CCa0

06a-a

4.2

U,0 0

64U

>

U

(n LL LO tnI-0o 0 0 0

a 4AIn,

r4

0 C,-, 0 1.4

0 >- 1-

0-3

I.- -,.

_0 0

uII

40 Z

0 0i.E

0.

4D-

Next, this interim output is multiplied by a combination of"" the two distance matrices (both mileage and zones) and the market penetra-

tion rates to develop the gross slip market for the 162 counties and 5 years. SThis interim output is then input into the gravity model and allocated usingthe equation previously described. To provide the user the advantage ofexamining these numbers both at the county and the resource area level,

K> two interim tables are generated by the model. One is the potential slip* market by 162 counties and 5 years, and the second is the potential slip

market for the 28 pools and 5 forecast years. The potential slip market• input is the basis for the trip productions that are allocated to the at-* tractions (28 reservoirs) using the gravity equation.

b. Allocation: The particular formation of the gravitymodel has been referred to by traffic planners as the "F-factor" form. The

* F-factor form of the gravity model is calibrated around trip productions to" reproduce a trip distribution pattern similar to that provided by the interim

potential slip market input. It is achieved in the following manner. As-sumed values were used for the first set of F-factors, these values followeda somewhat smooth curve (assumied values were developed from the lockage sur-

*vey data). As the gravity model was being calibrated, new F-factors were* calculated for each model iteration by:

new F old of trips in (d)

% of trips in (d)old

where F(d)old is the F-factor of the previous iteration for the distance

in question.

The relative size of the F-factors is of critical importanceto the gravity model distribution. The distribution of F-factors is af-fected by several factors:

* The demand for a given length trip as indicated by the 0trip length frequency distribution curve.

0 The potential for having a given trip length.

* The interaction caused by competition with attractions Sat other lengths of trips.

It is difficult to use an areawide term to describe what willhappen for individual counties in any model. The influence of one largetrip interchange at a particular distance will affect all other trip inter-changes at the same distance. The interaction caused by large trip inter-changes will affect those of other distances also.

D-5

'i-'.i7-1" i"-%-i'i"- " ' ", , , .' ".

-0

The calibration criteria center around two factors. One isthe ratio of actual trip length to computed trip length by the model, andthe second is the standard deviation of the ratios of percent of tripsdistributed to each distance band compared to the desired distribution.The model will continue to reiterate as presently programmed until the triplength ratio reaches a level of 1.7 and the standard deviation is reducedto 1.00../ At that time, the model prints a matrix that displays a number

of potential slips being sought at each pool for all 162 counties.

This process is repeated and reiterated until the criteria

have been reached for all 5 forecast years. At the conclusion of theprogram, a final table is printed that shows the potential slip marketdemand for each of the 28 Mississippi pools for the 5 forecast years.

Some of the basic inputs and outputs are described below: 1 0

3. Data Input Cards

a. Population ForecastsI 0

Column Contents

1-12 County name13-15 County number19-20 State number ..

21-30 1980 population31-40 1985 population41-50 1990 population51-60 1995 population61-70 2000 population

b. Present Boat Registration Per 1,000 Population (1976)

Column Contents

1-3 County number •

4-5 State name

7-10 Boat registration/l,000 population

1/ These constraints were empirically developed for the particular data

used in the Upper Mississippi River model. Normally the gravity modelconverges if the ratios are within 0.05 standard deviation. Because

of the problem of using an areawide F-factor term to describe trip *distribution patterns over a 400-mile stretch of river, however, quick . .convergence with this lower limit could not be achieved.

D-6

o . . W V W W . . W. ' . .

- . . - ..--.

c. Boat Registration Growth Factors

Column Contents 0

1-2 State number

7-10 1980 growth factor





61-80 State name

d. Distance Matrix (Mileage)

Column Contents

1-3 County number

5-6 State number

11-15 Distance from county to Lock 51

16-20, etc. Continuing in Fields of 5.0

through Column 80 and from

Column 11 through 80 or Card 2

for all other locks

e. Distance Matrix (Zones)

Column Contents

1-3 County number

5-6 Column number

10-37 Zone each lock falls in, in

terms of distance from county/ ..-

0 0

1/ Zone Number Mileage

1 0-25

2 26-50

3 51-75

4 76-99

5 100-150

6 150+

D-- 7

-w .. m ww * S

f. Market Penetration Rates

Column Contents

1-4 Year

6-10 Distance Band 1 (Percent of Market)

16-20 Distance Band 2 (Percent o Market)26-30 Distance Band 3 (Percent of Market)




g. Moorage Capacity of Pools

Column Contents

1-2 Pool number

7-10 Quality (distribution of commercial

slips, 1977--percent)

70 Must be "3"

h. Friction Factors

Column Contents

1-2 Distance (rounded to 10 miles)

in sequence from I to 75

3-6 Friction factors

70 Must be "5"

i. Trip Length Frequency Factors

Column Contents

1-2 Distance (rounded to 10 miles) S

in sequence from 1-75

3-6 Percentage (same as friction factors)

70 Must be "6"

D-8

0 7

!2." -."-."''............-"- -.......... " 7 .....

4. Gravity Model Outputs: A number of interim outputs provided

"'- by the program give the user a cross-check on both data inputs and subse-

quent final output. These are described below:

a. Total Boat Registration: The resulting estimates of

* multiplying the 1976 per capita boat registration times population fore-

casts provide this interim output.

b. Adjusted Boat Registration: Applying the boat registra-

tion growth factors to the total boat registration provides this matrix.

It is a matrix of 162 counties by the 5 forecast years.

c. Potential Slip Market: This interim output is provided

in two forms. One is a matrix of 162 counties by 5 forecast years, and the

second is a matrix of 28 pools by 5 forecast years. It is the resultinginterim output from multiplying penetration rates times the adjusted boat

registration. The first table is the basic trip productions input that

is allocated in the gravity model.

d. Comparison Tables: Two basic comparison tables areprovided as the model begins to reiterate the allocation process. The

first table is a matrix of 28 reservoirs by the trips desired (slips) andthe computed trips (slips) based on present moorage capacity. The computedtrips are the model allocations. A third column provides a ratio betweenthe two, and the fourth column provides a difference between computed and

desired trips. At the end of three reiterations, a second table is output.For each distance zone, the final F-factor for the reiteration of the threetables is produced. A second column provides the trip length frequency

factors; the third column produces the model trip length frequency results;the fourth column shows the ratio of the F-factors to the trip length fre-

quency factors.

At the conclusion of this second table, the average trip %length, the computed trip length, the ratio, between the two and the meanand standard deviation are produced. If the convergence criteria are notreached, the model goes through another set of reiterations. This process

continues until the criteria are reached. At that time, yet another out-put is produced. It shows the number of trip productions, potential slipmarket generated for each separate pool by each county. The results of

the final model allocation of potential slip market for each pool is then

stored for the final output. The above process is repeated for each of the5 forecast years and the final table outputs potential slip market foreach of the 28 pools for the 5 forecast years. A few of the outputtables for the runs on the Upper Mississippi River are shown in the next

section. S

D-.9

1 RP-. W 4P S S ,S * ' ,

5. Data for Upper Mississippi Gravity Analysis: The followingpages contain the input data and interim and final outputs for the gravity

analysis on the Upper Mississippi River (28 pools). •

a. Input Data

9 Population forecasts

* Distance matrix (mileage)

* Moorage capacity of pools

i Friction factors

0 Trip length frequency factors

b. Interim Outputs

0 Boat registration 0

* Adjusted boat registration

0 Potential slip market (counties)

* Potential slip market (pools)

c. Final Output

* Potential slip market (28 pools and 5 years) , P

D o1

S S

D- 10

*q' --...'U U "U U U °U UW U U" U -U ,'" 0 •

INPUT DATA

D- 11

171

t'-]"POPULATION hAll IN THfIIrAHfS OF PFkl;OPS .

. 2 HlOl1 1 h7,1-6 #..6 ? -16..5 16." A

, -3 H O O N i - 1 7 1h~ 7 .A '1 . 4 .7 1 )1 .n " _4 HP.O0 N 1 1' o. 4.A 4<.H P,7-. .

6 CALHOUN' it S.4 %,+ 9.1 S.3 5,t17 CARIROLL 17 19.4 14 .7 PO.1 P0.9 ?.4. '8 CASS 11 13.9 l11.1) 14.4 14 . 8 l 15.6 " ,

9 CHIS T IAN 17 It).r 3!7.nl 37.A 3R.3 39.9 •10 Cl. INTON I7 30.? . 31.31 "41.6 311.111 DE KALP 17 6Y .1 7 %8 .6 93.6% 106.6.?"12 FAYETTF. 17 2(),.s 21.rl 27.7 P3.3 P3.+..413 FULTON 17 42. c 4?.g 44.4 47.5 SI. 7

li! 14. GRIIEENE 17 16.P l16.n h l . ..... 6 0 . ... 10,4 -fl-

15 HANCOCK 11' 21.3 ?1.3 21.4.?. ?4.4+16 HENDEkON 17 8.7 8.9 9,0 9.5 10,.4...|7 HENRY 17 -57.0 S9.3 I " 1 0 -.... .3 8- . .. .7 - ""

18 JEFFERPSON 1"1 33.9 34.5 .3s.9 "37.1 39.4. - •• -. 19 JER SEY 17 19.q ?n.2 ... 0? .8 ... .9 . . . 3.0. .:.".20 JO DAVIES S 17 21.9 ? 2;1 3. ? 2.* io- 2J. 1 .- ,

22 LA SALLE it 107.9) liI.m 116.0 1?1.8 126.4.i

23 LEE l7 34..h 3n. A W f .* .. .. A- ....-- 4. )-24 MC D)ONOUGH 17 40.3 49.,3 4#4.5 i?. 0 60.4- """25 MACOUPIN 17 4,6.0 47.7 50.3 52.1 55.7 1: "."

?6 MADISON 17 ?,;.1 .3 ? n.3- .. . .- %.7 . . .2145;7 ... . 93.1l -27 MARION 17 39.4 42.1 43.8 4r).? 45.6R8 MARSHAL L 17 13.1 13.3 13.9 13.7 13.7-- v -MASON 17 -. . . 1-7.0 -los.8 . . .. 17.7 . ... . 9O. . . . ll30 MENAPD 1? 10.7 1t.0 11¢ 12.0 12.R31 MERCER If 18.3 lq.1 lq.q 71.3 ?3.4.

13 MON~t6OMFRy 17 30.7 31.1 31.Q 32.4. 33.Q '34 MORGOAN 11 34.4. 3r .6 17.6 314.0 41 .035 OGLE 17 4.3.4. 4.4. 47.7 50.7 54.? - ..-.36 PEORIA if 2 .04.A ? 12.n .19q. 4 22 7• .2 73T.9. i-" , i737 PFRRY 11 19.6 19.5 10. ?0.4*?.qj:

38 PIKE 17 18.3 I- , 1AI .1 I . f. .. t- .0.39 PUTNAM If /.n 6,.0 6.6 7.? 7.,40 RANDOLPH 17 32.9 31. A 34.q 16.6 3(4.4."

j '

42 ST CLAIR 17 ?$16. P 786 •6€ 30 1., 31().4. l?Fl.q43 SANG;AMON 17 170.1 178,q. lq?.4, ?nl.9i ?17,? -'.l.44 SCH(#YLFH it I. 'A.? 7 .? 7.4 8. t ' '"i '"

45 SCOTT it s.. 9. %.,.q 4. --6- . -46 STAHK' 17 1.3 7 .1 7 . 7.3 7.4 -... .,..47 STEPHENSON 17 4M.P 4T.9 4.4'.8 rl?.0 r~. ,.-s48 WARRE.N 11 22.7 eI.4. ?3.A ? i.0o ?A.4 .- """49 WASHINGTON if 15.1 1 ,. I 1%.h IL. 7 1,.n " -"

'4

51 WINNFFAGO 17 ,43 10. n ]7 . ? l .q +L; I"S? ALLAMAKFF 1, ,. ].7 1 1 ' Ir".m If7 P|7

54. BLACK HIAWK 19 1 3# .6 14 (1 14;.1 Ic. Ik .n "

55 B14FM H 19 ?6. 0 ?7.3 po."Ip . ,c. n. . .56 t8IICHANANj 14 ? QP .t?r.n!'t+.~ €.l' ."" ""-'

58 CHICKASAW 19b 61l. Iv I. I I

D-12

:,:Ti ll~~~~~i:;,~~ .' " .1; ; i .. .... .... .. . . . . .

59 CLAYTON 19 21.9 22.3 23.n P3.7 2'.'60 CLINTON I'l 59.9 62.1 64.3 66.2 67.761 I AVIS Iv 4~.8 t.~ 9.5 4.7 9. F62 DELAWARE 19 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.3 23.263 t)ES MOINES 19 45.n 4'..8 44.A ~ 4.9 (*5.264 DURUGUE 19 9a.3 133.1 108.3 113.2 117.9"

65 FAYETTE 19 ?7.2 27.8 28.3 28.7 20.166 HENRY 19 17.3 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.3

68 IOWA 19 15.S 1. .7 16.71 16.2 1A .69 JACKSON 19 21.9 22.? 23.6 24.5 P5.3

71 JOHNSON 19 80.7 84.7 18.6 92.1 Q5.272 JONES 14 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.1 2?."

74 LEE 19 39.9 39.2 39.0 34.1 3Q.475 LINN 19 167.7 170.4 174.0 177.8 181.?

77 MUSCATINE 19 '1.2 3.5 &5.7 47.5 4A.9

78 SCOTT 19 156.9 164.8 172.9 lq0.1 lgf .'7 9-Y44N BUREN --- i I- - --- ?.7 -?u--- -. 3------7-i- - ?TO--~---80 SAPELLO 19 37.9 36.6 35.7 35.1 34."Al WASHINTON 19 16.4 15.N 15.' !5.2 1S.

i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 3 v-1-NN Exi E -- I-- .... . 0 . ..- - ---- .r .. .: 9- . ... ; -.

83 ANOKA 27 200.3 225-0 295.5 -3.0 301).484 8JfNT0N 27 2342. 7.fl '8.6

7 8 5 CARE k--- -2---- -.... -34-a 3-b- 40.3 - -t ... -

- 86 CHISAGO 27 23.9 2R.S 34.0 3% .4 44.987 DAKOTA 27 181.1 2o4.3 234.6 ?64.A ?93.3 r -89 FILLMORE 27 21.1 20.9 20.7 20.2 1 .9;90 600UHUE 27 38.4 41.1 43. 0 4..3 4,c.

.2 HOUSTON 27 18.2 18.* 18.8 19.1 19.293 ISANTI 27 21.7 25.3 29.() 33.0 37.11

95 MC LE00 27 31.4 34.1 36.8 39.5 42.396 MEEKER 27 19.7 20.5 2n. 21.' ?1.,-

98 ULMSTED 27 97.8 105.9 114.1 121.5 127.499 kAMSEY 27 485.7 494.1 494.,) 495.0 487.?

-4-----2,1- --- *---4 *---*r -- 4 ) --

101 SCOTT 27 39.1 43.0 47.A 92.5 16."102 SHER8UONE 27 25.5 29.h 34. 39.4 . "

104 STEELE 27 79.0 30.3 31.2 31.8 31.Q105 wARASHA ?7 18.3 18.7 1A.8 19.1 19.;)

107 WINONA 27 '6.8 48.1 4A.9 49.S 50.108 WRIGHT 27 51.2 99Q.6 69.5 '6.3 7'--

110 AUDRAIN 24 25.9 26.2 ?f.F 26.8 2,.1 - -III 800NE ?v~ 94.5 98.2 101.9 1'%9.9 109.

113 CLAOX 29 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 711' FQANKLIN 29 70.3 80.8 91.? 1). 11A.,..

116 JEFFERSON 29 134.9 156.9 178.9 208.1 ;37.3117 KNOX 29 2. 5.0 4.A 4.6 4.. .3-te--tE--f------ - -29------- .i--------t, ;. -. ....... . .' .-..

119 LINCOLN 2# 21.5 24.0 26.- 2q.' 32.-120 MACON 29 1.2 16. 17.' 18.n 18.7.- "

i~i M~om t?0 ?7. IT.122 MONWOE 20 10. 11.2 12.0 12.8 11.7

123 MONTGOMERY 29 11.8 12.' 12.9 13.5 14.1

D- 13

, W.. . , - - - - 0o

125 RALLS 10.2 11.2 12.4 13. A.7127 ST CHARLES 29 133.4 16,5.4 F94.3 244.6 291.8

128 ST FRANCOI 2,0 40.4 42.a 45.1 47.7 50.3129 ST LOUIS 2,p 971.7 993.8 1015.9 1039.o 1062.1130 STE GENEVI 2,0 14.3 15.2 16.2 17.3 10.4131 SCHUYLER 2,0 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.8 ?.3132 SCOTLAND 29 5.5 5.5 5.5 S.5 .

134 WARREN 29 14. 104 22.4 28.5 34.6135 WASHINr7TON 2,# 17.2 18.6 20.0 21.6 23.306t ST kOLIs-e-- i's_________________________137 ADAMS 55 12.7 14.9 17.3 19.9 2?.5138 BARRON 55 39.1 42.5 45.0 48.7 51.0

5,5 ---- * S*140 CHIPPEWA 55 50.0 53.2 55.7 57.6 59.1141 CLARK S 31.7 33.0 34.4 35.5 3.

143 QOjON 55 31.2 32.3 33.3 34.2 35.P144 EAID CLAIRE 55 73.9 TT.S 103 3.d 06.6

14b GREEN 55 30.9 33.7 36.5 39.1 41o3147 IOWA 55 19.7 20.4 21.2 21.8 22.0P6-*0-O- --. ---- +~ T 7. -- ~---------t-3---------149 JUNEAU 55 20.1 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.3150 LA CROSSE 55 85.0 88.9 91.6 93.8 99.6151 LAF E -5E --So - 90. 2t.9tp152 M4ONROE 55) 34.5 .36.7 38.0 40.4 41.5153 PEPIN 55 7.4 7.6 7.4 8.0 8.1

155 POLK 5s 33.2 37.3 41046.0 5.156 RICHLAND 55 16.0 15.0 15.6 15.217

158 ST CREOIX 55 43.6 49.9 57.0 64.1 70.8159 SAUK 55 '1.0 43.8 45.8 47.2 48.3 - 0.7 6,D.- 55.8E-LE 55 7.7r-

161 VERNON 5 _ 25.6 26.6 27.9 26.1 2R. 31I b 0 52 WOOD 73.5 77.0 79.9 01.5

D- 14 S

FU '7 ., 4p V Uj l* ** w 3 . 'e. 3

P-r~~e -t~ -- - -P4 - -. - -

- ft~*~A~* ~~%. NN N. .0 P-A

jA. .N-. N .°

m °-

0-nc-- rh-oo- -0-C p- _-"--f-,Kk C--p 0 -o --.-~co -er ...

A. 0 0 0 oA~ 1 7 A A V.PI

C - .P, C . . . . C A P - & C . . . & + o. LA . C P . . & Ct Z @ 4 - o U C C O.-0 m t N og+D + + + o -- C

------ 0 e .

... ..N 00 .... .. C P--0oAJ4 .,OC," OPI- -'

o - C A..... *-S ....

- 0--P ,- ---04--iOA . m m -- rA i. M ,. *0 -- A.P 0C--. 4NAV& --- O- --- " "

neP.A .e +A.OG P o CA 9-40 -.0 .. 4- - .. ,. 0 0 0 .+ V O. -VF-eo tP-meV

I~ .N - NN4 i S, Ni

* , o * & N - 0 0 C . - . o . o ~ o * 4 4 00 V N - O J . -

................. O.... 0 ... ........P~ A .. ... .. . _ 0P t

' ~ - - "N - - .--- - fOO . -- - - + -: "

. .. . . ." " 0 4 0 .-.-A .C A .M+@ 0 ee.os.. v o . . . . . . e . . c o . .t 0 0 0 0 4 0 C 9 0

4 4 N 4

............ ... 4000m+ +ttO ..O * +CO*O ..........A* ........0

APAPOAV O -0---

,D-15

*:+ .... ... ..... 4 .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .....U t 0 -A N .4 0 0 P O p oW -.4. .. . ..

+ '.. .. .. .. .. . + .. .* . . . 04 ,.- - - P 0 -E rO

4N NN .. , N . Nl - -O-P- -.- ---- - -+ - - - ;. .. .L .... I _ A C O A A, t C .. .nA i _ I. 0 .0 . 4l N p F V o - r, 4 -A ,-N4 MJ ,N c oo C M 0 C c C -. O t OW0 4 0,C"o e f P

,'"0- P.O 000D -A. OP-0594 . M * O A. O e N 44 . n t ,'noo. PMA - - -

t"PP4 O0.- .. N, 00(M. 0 0 - -0 0* 0 t0 0 A . 0P O . O -

"+ '. -°. ". -'. / . - 00. ,+ , .n C A. 4 O- O.O-' .0 _ - 00 , 0. 0 ,'0 4-" N", . .. + . m , " , . ,o £ P k. 4,P- " .- " ,e" r

ftv- 0$4-

I I . I t I It

;#ri ..t . .

* t ~ .. Or"

0,

A ~ ~JR 4 Zz z2 F 0,

NN*OSC N.*AC.Ct.'. . * -

- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ D 16--I 4tt9~J h

- -------- ------- z-- -- ' ----- -

-. -N .~~~

'Zo~ac . Z, i

IN w;c NA ;M -. 0 .0 1_**~~~~~ !: 1,e 0ene-c cN2tcc *s ArcsA 0c TA.IN

-I I . 1.J NtJ~

7 t

*VJ I~AS- w* Ic c.

W- we 2~.'N N _

t. .0 7 n ~ e- oNS JrnLpc 11 -- -t

lAe WSNANS Ca. *NtW.SN

NN~~~~0 N. NrN - - NM. i

0.. cf~f5. -rrn ee..~bD-17 r

A... O~snP SNA~tStccc V-ct t5 ~ sOS .0b.0.6 t~

I 1 0 ~

. 3 . .• - .-------- I " - "________________________________

21 3 . 4o1 3 10 .oP, 1

-q --------- 5---~--- .........-I - - ------ --- 0- _____ ---FT%.,1 13 l.11

I b

>P a'..

32 0 L,

.- , I 33. I.". 1.

361 3.0 g "-'..

-- -3-150-- .'.f -

96 1 1

dT lO 37, "- "- -

I' 3 IS0 1- ":

"...'. .-3o -0

13 1.0 5

*. . .. -. 1330 -- - - - - - ,

• s 32e.o -.

15.0

6 1.097 3.0

,' 90., -9S10 .0 1 "

20 9

22 1.0 9i

23 1.0

25 13 0 - -

2 6 1.0 9

'1.7 1 .0; .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . ..- ." "' - " -

29 3 .0- '29 .0 "

20 1.0 - -

31 1.09 -

3221.09

33 0.0 4'

34. 0o0 C;

-: I o)6 0 o- .- . .

25 1.0

3? 0 0

39 0o.6 . . ... - .-. :.

20:0

31 0.0

32 0.09

33 0.0 - - -'. .

43 00

34 0:0 . .. ... .. ..- -'3 0.0 "39 0.0 -

40 009. -C

4A 0.0

43 0.0 7

44 0.0

46 0 953 00

49 0.0550 09

sh 0:09

D- 18

W .. rw w w W. *w -w - - -

SO 0.0 .p. 59 0.0 cl

-L -60 0 .

61 0 Sh2 4).0 063 0.064 0.0.65 0.066 0.06? 0.0

;:,, 66 0.0 '

70 0.071 0.0 672 0.073 0.0 6

74 0.075 0.0

1 2.0 -

- 322.0 -.

415 .06

64.0 47 3.0A 2,.5

9 20-

* O 2 .01t 2.0 ei I ~1 1.5 . ;:

13 1.0

-4 1 .0

16 1.0 1

12 .0

19 0.0 "

2- 0 1.0 --- . --- -

2. 1 0. -6-- -

2? 1.0 A

24 0.0 635 0.0

-- 2-6 1 0 A327 0.0- 6

36 0.0 6

?9 0.0 A

30 0.0 "

41 0:0A - ---- +:o- -o-- 6 -'.:

3 0.0 6 . .

43 0.0 0"

46 0.0

37 0.0 6

40 0.0 A51 0.0

42 0.0

_ 3 0.0

4 0.0 .56 0.0 6

57 0.048 0.0S 5q 0.0

so o o5 1! ) . --

-. :

- 19

66 06061 0.06~ 0.0

19, O.:_

6? 0. :0?p 0.0

737o 0

D- 20

-7S

INTERIM OUTPUTS0

D.-21

4W4 I.WvrW 'W Ww * w -

ktH THOISAND CAPITA BIAT QF]TIPAT|NNS

1 ADAMS ?7.1 ?74 .q PA37.2 ?94A .q 4441.'

2 HONn SIP 7?. 53?.? 53.f n S0Q 0'

3 HOfNiNE I I ty4. 64i.1 717A 177.1 R).I4 HQO(WN 17 114.7 11? 1 ()o lO .

- 101." 11,.

9 RUNFAL 1 120o . n 1?33i-9 1p p. 3 1340.4 I ,48 .'

6 CALHOUN 17 519.5 s1q.s c09. 9 509.9 04.,.-.7 CARROLL 1, 1160.1 117A.1 IPOP.0 j?49. I

A CASS 17 74?.9 764.5 702.0 A14.0 5*

9 CHRISTIAN I1 1693.6 171 A.A 171;3.Q 177.1 I M I10 CLINTON 1 1214.0 1?30.1 15R.3 1?70.3 1;"8?.,, 011 DE KALR 17 1090.3 1147.6 I?70.7 14??i.7 ],,0.112 FAYETTE II H? 0.0 60.0 40R. -4 1?. "

13 FULTON 17 23460. 7 ?4A3.14' v 7 0 . m ? ?140.1. 4

14 G 'p F rNE It ,23.3 %16.1 c2fl.0 'l16.$L 8I6 .P4

Iv HANCOCK 17 $15.8 A 14;. R A19.6 A 4 .116 HENI)EWSON 17 6 0.5 69. I4Q . 626.4 6,1.-

17 HENRY 17 2111o7 pp?. 3 - ?3?4.1 ?430.m413 JEFFERSON 17 1674.7 1704.3 1773.L; 1812.1 I '46. 019 JERSEY 11 851.7 A64.6 8Q0.? 937.3 1404 .420 JO I)AV1USS It IP0.I .. -17ri? l- - - -... .9 1 4 A0;4 4 m.l21 KNOX 11 22, 3.rc 2171.1 237R.1 21; ? .422 LA SAL.E 17 3?6h.n 3369.3 3526.4 3702.7 3m4'..

"

23 LFF 17 1231.--.. 13570 % 1473. M 16013. 1 7i8.n"24 MC DONOUGH 1 951.1 1069.1 1144.6 12?7.? 14?5.4

25 MACOUPIN 17 1646.R 1707.7 1R00.7 1865.2 1976.P

26 MADISON 17- - M8964 -. . -q6----... -91Qi.-A A - f1- .8 10 37.7 --

27 MARION it 1773.0 I94.9 1971.0 2014.0 ?oi.n

28 MARSHALL I 467.7 474.A 481.9 489.1 4.$9.1

29 MASON 17 11 .. ly; I. 11 I7-2 .-- "7...1--. 1310;0 1 .m30 MFNAII 17 4 ie.5 557.7 588.1 609.4 04. Al31 MERCER 1 Y53.4 99%. 1 103h.8 1109.7 1219.1

32 MONROF -- il....... .p- .2......8A 0 ----- qftf3...-9A0t8- ; - 2013.n33 MONTGOMERY 17 1112.7 118.0 121A.6 1p37.7 179%.o34 mORGAN 17 105b.1 1092.q 1154.3 1JQ7.3 1,77."35 OGLE I . 193.1- 1497.3 - 19031. -- ?7; 173.8.

3h PFORIA 17 67.4 6953.6 7146.3 r4g2.2 7790037 PERRY 17 1140.7 1134.9 1 1q.8 1107.3 121.4 -

38 PIK" 11 r7.q 763.? 76.4 . 7A4.439 PUTNAM If ?73.6 273.6 301.0 3$4. ,.40 RANOOLPH if I164b. 0 lPo.0 1741.n J10.0 A1.0)04 l--ROCK 'iSLAN --1 . . 710.p ... ? .4 H77 -1 ... .. ..

42 ST CLAIR 11 83siS. 7 R"Q7.4 825.2 9004.7 q',.*.43 SANGAMON 17 6361.7 6690.9 71 Q.A 7551. 1 I ,. 144 SCHUYLER I I 43 . - 4 4 ..1 4 ; .1 441] n . .p

45 SCOTT 11 147.1 !43.k 13.6 1. 4. ' -n.1 I'J7.I4h STARK 17 193.4 198.7 01.4 1 ,' 3.'4 I

47 STFPH *SON 17 1 720.7 1710.0 1777.Q 1 8. 4 ]4'J4 .7

4 8 WARREN IT 744 .5 41.0 933.0 A7). ,-49 WASHIN()TON 17 '.1.6 5Q0.P A S61.6 C565. P .50 WHITFsI F 17 338.3 264(14. 0 3A. h 1VA .3(r5T.Pn 7

51 W I NNEH A(O 17 7/04h.r 7 9?.o 8135.1 .7l R) 1S. Ik71 I

92 ALLAMAKVF 1 1.31H .4 1 3r .4 1401.1 4 '14 . '.53 HFNTON 19 I .?34.? 1 25. 1?76.1 1.,54 HLACK HAWK 14 75$1.4 77P7.4 1-37.n Q .," d-0L.'

"5 1 I tJFME R 19 1421.4 1498.8 1 3.7 1 1.1 I I.. "-Sh H1CHANAN 14 1 .. ? 1117P.. 147 . Is I r. 7f, PST CEDAR 19 8t4.8 A g4.1 ,, '-14.. .

5#' CHICKASAW 14 1 Om .3 7.8 7f,7 * 'N . I .. "

D-22

7. j: :: . - .

. -. .. + -, . .- - , _t . .. . - -.. -. -..

59 CLAYTON 19 1812.4 1479.9 191A.9 1997.9 2041.160 CLINTON 19 4612.3 47RI.7 49S1.1 5097.4 5712.Q61 DAVIS 19 310.0 324.8 335.3 342.4

62 OELAWARE 19 840.4 874.9 922.3 961.1 399.963 OES MOINES 19 3447.0 3431.7 3431.7 3439.3 34o2.364 DUBUQUE 19 4S31.6 4715.9 4992.6 S218.S 5416.765 FAYETTE 19 1313.8 1342.7 1366.9 1386.2 405.566 HENRY 19 839.0 829.3 A29.3 834.2 439.

68 IOWA 19 678.9 087.7 700.8 ?09.6 718.3, _ _ 69 JACKSON 19 1780.5 14.5 1914.7 1991.8 P056.9

,.71 JOHNSON I v 3053.4 3803.0 3976.1 4135.3 16.77. ""

72 JONES 19 1013.0 1037.9 106P.9 107.1 ]112.8- 7 3---*Ef -- --- 309-----5,-- ; .6 1909.6 ....

74 LEE 19 Z3n6.2 2265.8 Z254.2 ?250.0 P?77.375 LINN 19 10363.9 10530.7 10793.2 109R8.0 1119A.?

77 USCATINE lp 2921.1 3084.1 3240.1 3367.7 34rg9 '7R SCOTT 19 8017.6 q21.3 835.2 9203.1 9q04.6

40 wAPELLO 19 2084..5 2013.0 1963.S 1930.5 111."

81 WASHINGTON 1v 895.4 462.7 40.8 4299 .r"

,.. 83 ANOKA 27 6r69.8 7180.0 8380.4 9292.4 10033.5

" ' 84 BENTON 27 1633.3 I759.0 1PAN.6 1946.3 ?173.1

46 CHISAGO 27 2385.2 2844.3 3393.2 3R32.3 441.087 DAKOTA 27 15628.9 17631.1 20246.0 22AS2.2 25311.4

* 89 FILLMORE 27 797.6 790.0 782.S 763.6 737.190 GOODHUE 27 3096.9 3316.8 3518.5 3736.' 32?2.i'

92 mOUSTON 27 1172.1 1185.0 1210.7 1230.0 1236.693 ISANTI 27 91.1 106.3 121.8 138.6 155..

95 NC LEO 27 Z16.7 235.3 253.9 772.5 P91.94b MEEKER 27 23h.4 246.0 250.4 PS.8 '56.4

- - 97 NOW6, a -2-7.------25 a e.siss 2:23.i 6.109d OLNSTED 27 6112.5 6618.7 7131.2 7943.8 7952.599 RAMSEY 27 46141.S '6939.5 47310.0 47025.0 406'84.0

101 SCOTT 27 30n4.4 4183.9 4650.9 5108.2102 SHf4#URNF 27 392.7 453.8 523.6 A06.8 A97.6

104 STEELE 27 1870.S 1954.3 2012.4 2051.1 2151.5 -*105 ARASHA 2? 53.1 54.2 54.5 55.1 95.3

-.------------ 9;6.8 t~iITt #7--076 .. 0 1E7*.i 1139. -- 1* 1~107 WINONA 27 3492.5 3795.1 3858.2 3913.4 3952.9108 WRZGHT 27 21S1.4 2503.2 2919.0 3?04.6 3654.0i09 ABAWf 29 612.9 siv v~s. a -.- r795. ~110 AUORAIN 2 9 1059.3 1071.6 1083.$ 1096.1 1104..111 BOONE 2O 26S.4 2759.4 2863.4 297S.8 3n83.?

113 CLARK( 29 27&.6 267?.5 260.5 2S3.4 -41S.4.114 FRANKLIN 29 3276.A 3765.3 42#9.9 4983.7 S51."116 0Eco0E - 75.. a11.-O 9*2.0 4.t eO.l116 JEFFERSON 29 S935.6 6903.6 ?I71.6 9156.4 10'1.7117 KNOX 29 79.6 76.5 73.4 70.4 67.'

119 LINCOLN 29 860.0 .0 106.0 1176.0 1?96.0 n1120 0ACON 29 555.7 576.2 596.8 617.' 41.4

122 NONROE 29 186.9 199.4 213.6 227.8 ?41123NONTGOmERv 29 273.8 287.7 299.3 313.2 327.1 0

T ,- l ...-- 24 -- ,--

9464.4p Sel-t3 499.2 -• ,**.o4 . ...

D-23

... ... . ...- - --... ..- +0

p."*

125 A1LLS 29 199.7 ?2n.3 2 4 1.9 q .d 193.8126 dANOOLPH 29 9A3.0 ir63.7 I1-4.3 123-.5 [332.9127 ST CHAOLES 29 6469.4 8021.9 9569.G 1163.1 i4152.3128 ST FRANCOI 29 1607.9 1703.4 1795.0 1498.5 ?001.9129 ST LOUIS 29 30317.0 31006.6 31%90.1 32416.8 33137.5-130 STE GENEVI 29 499.1 530.5 565.4 603.8 A42.2131 SCHUYLER 29 97.5 106.7 II.1 125.1 134.3132 SCOTLAND 29 79.2 79.2 79.2 19.2 79.2.33 SHIE68 2; i"'1 f.7 103.7 3 t0si.3 56-Is..t.134 wARREN 2v 403.1 511.5 ?2.7 7q2.3 4. --135 WASHINGTON 29 276.) 299.5 32;.0 ?47.8 375.11-30-, 4 -2- -S8- -- -.-137 ADAMS 5, 243.8 28b.1 332.2 392.i 43?,0138 BARRON 5: 2048.9 2227.0 23Q9.4 2551.9 2,72.- " "

* __- 139 @WJFF'-LO ---- -5-- -4 327 a------39 e ---- + vi -k --. lye --

140 CHIPPEA 5t 563.9 590.5 6!A.3 639.4 6%6.0141 CLARK 55 2028.8 2112.0 2231.. 23.04.0"- -4 - C A -F O T ? O -- 8-- - .... 4 - -- -- -1 4 -- -4 ' - -p . .. -- - .- & --- 6 -- . .- t 49 - .., --.. . -

143 DUNN 5. 2199.6 2277.1 2347., 2411.1 2'.1 -

144 EAU CLAIRE 55 7(994.4 7440.0 77S6.3 $404-8. 3 313. A

146 GREEN 55 1279.3 1395.2 1511.1 16,.7 17n0.8147 IOWA 55 j13.6 942.5 A75.6 fl(.3 O9. A

149 JUNEAU 55 1766.8 1863.5 1977.7 2065.6 ?13s.n150 LA CROSSE 5, 7619.0 7894.3 8134.1 8129.4 -48q.3

152 MONROE 55 13q7.2 1486.3 1571.4 1636.2 1SM0.7153 PEPIN 55 616.4 633.1 s8.l A66.4 674.7 -O

I 4-AL E4C--- -5 - -194s-1~- ? *%3 3 1 6 p 165 lb155 POLK 55 999.3 1122.7 1?r8.2 1384.6 110A.0156 RICHILAND 55 828.8 Al8.. kfl8.1 7AT., I 6. 5!S7 ROCG -5-- 11. e'30.. 95030.3 k00 3b.1- 3-6--- -

158 ST CROIX 55 34880 3992.0 4560.0 5128.0 566&.0 - •159 SAUK 55 3155.Q 3306.9 3457.9 3503.6 3646.6

-64- ---s I 7 l- 1r.---- -,-. ---- .. .

161 VERNON 55 1449.0 1905.6 1556.5 1;90.5 1601.n

162 WOD 55 63(3.n 0681.1 bQQ9.3 72,2.9 -4018.4

r ..!

__ -°

.:D- 24

-. .• - -- -- - . - -- -S

APPLY GROW7H RATFq FOP FaCH YFA-

I ADAMS 17 30?.? 3146.3 3173.S 41.3.4 6?4A.?

2 RONO 17 S81.7 ;49.3 716.9 RU.1 A94.I3 flOONF 17 "43.1 7RI.O 4l*4 1127.1 11 .44 BROWN 17 125.7 136.A 143.0 199.9 1 " .?. -5 BUREAU 17 1329.8 150. ... 1705.9 1943.T ?n.-6 CALHOUN I? 571.4 633.8 TA.1 739.3 '00.9-? CARROLL 17 12T6.1 1437.? 19q. IA I812.6 , .S. CASS 17 816.7 q37.7 193.U-- ]-R. ;3 - 1347.1

9 CHRISTIAN 17 I163.0 2nQ4.5 233?.? 2976.9 ?906.610 CLINTON I 1335.4 I9o.7 1673. 8 IA2.O P013.311 DE KALB 17 119 9.4 140n.1 169n.1 206?.9 ?743.Q12 FAYETTE 17 902.0 104q.2 1?n7.. 1491.4 1464.c13 FULTON 17 ?70R 3030.4 3419.1 39A7.9 4#9Q97I4 GREENE 17 575.A 63n.5 6Ql.6 74q.4 41.A "15 HANtOCK 17 097.4 999.4 loqn. IPIP. 1467.?

16 HENDERSON 17 666.1 79.7 Al.) QR.7 1136.417 HENRY 17 23R.9 779A.4 3091.1 3c;4. 407?q,1S JEFFERSON 17 1842.1 2079.2 21.34 2697.5 34099r.A19 JERSEY 17 936.9 1054.A 114.0 139.1I 14S. S20 JO DAVIESS 17 1326.R 16.3 1731.0 l IQ.t; 210.721 KNOX 17 2478.R 2R31.8 3162.6 3444.4 4770.122 LA SALLE 17 3594.R 410q.4 4690.1 369.9 6n3?."23 LEE 17 1354.9 1650.4 1960.? 23?.1 ?744.3?4 MC DONOUGH 17 1046.2 1304.3 ]5P?.3 177q.4 ?737.925 MACOUPIN 17 1RIIS 20H3.3 ?399.n 2Tn4.5 3107.6

--- 26 MAnISON' 17 q795.6 8l1.0o 1?499.9 14AF9.0 IlA%.q27 MARION 17 1990.3 2311.3 2621.4 2949.3 3221.28 MARSHALL if 514.4 97q3 641.0 70q.;? 77•..29 MASON 17 1243.7 1163.n 155.5 19PA.5 P490.930 MENARD 17 096.7 680.4 82 2 182.2 l11.931 MERCER 17 1048.8 1.14 1378.9 1609.1 - 19 4.-n32 MONROE- --IT O I4PO, ]T91,1 1,133 MONTGOMERY 17 1290.0 1443.4 1607 1794.6 2n0.1...34 MORGAN 17 1161.7 1333.4 1515.2 1736,.1 p00',.1

--15 OGLE 17- 1532.9 177R.0 2036.9 23S99 2731136 PEORIA 17 7389.2 A483.4 9971.1 10R05.6 12230.33? PERRY 17 1254.R 134.6 1999.9 17)1.6 1909.38 PIKE 17 893.9 931.1 1020.7 1117.4 1344.719 PUTNAM 17 301.0 33A6 400.1 476. 944."40 RANDOLPH I7 1n49.9 2049.6 2320.8 ?F93.9 3014.441 ROCK ISLAN 17 794.? g60.3 IOKq.. I- 117q.0 -1 363!. g42 ST CLAIR 17 9224.2 10244.8 11737.9 13187.3 1Iq1.743 SANGAMON 17 6997.q R16?.R 9970.4 10Q4.0 1?7c"3."44 SCHUYLFP 17 478.6 c 92.9 S 97I(I. 7 r4 .9 7S745 SCOTT 17 21.8 236.? ?S7.9 ;7,.A 1q.946 STARK it ?12.A ?42 ?67.9 20.9 i07.47 STFPHENSON I 1A92. ?II8O;.2 PIf4. A 7(,1. 3o9 . I48 WARREN 17 k74. 2 117.Q 1268.7 147R.?49 WASHINGTON 17 9,q.o 6 72.O 746.4 A19.9 qnJ4.490 WHITESIDE 17 3(,7;1.1 4274.4 4.473.4 s9"4?.; lA.51 WINNEHAGO 17 7HO.4 9262.? 10819.7 1?64A., 147?n.5 ALLAMAKFF 19 1361.9 14R I8 k 1 93.4 19f2.? I809.453 BFNTON 19 1 ?si3.A 1398.t 1442).A 1 1;19.9k54 BLACK HAWK 19 794M4.7 944AF9. S 4968.8 9314 ]nnq.I95 BREMER 19 14 4.9S 10633.7 17,;. A I 19 .7 1 r9;..356 RUCHANAW 19 1307.; 1410.? 190.9 1,i44. 3 "IL,57 CFr9AP 19 404.6 911.0 999.2 Inq. 3 1018.198 CHICKASAW 19 73 .1 802. 867.h 943.7 101 1.&

D-25

S. . ... . ... . . . . . -w .*w - -ww--

59 CLAYTON Iv 1884.9g 2n49.1 2191.0 2.I57.5 p0 9. 360 CLINTON 19 '796.8 5212.1 S594.7 6014.9 6411.961 DAVIS 19D 323.1 35*.0, 378.9 404.0 425.562 DELAWARE 19 874.1 453.7 1042.2 1134.1 1229.9 .-

o)3 DES MOINES 19 3584.9 3740.5 3877.8 4058.*4 42S8.764 DUBUQUE 19 4712.9 5180.7 S641.7 6157.9 6062.665 FAYETTE 14 1366.3 14b3.t) 1544.6 1635.7 1728.866 H'ENRY 1o 872.6 904.0 937.2 984.4 1032.0

0- ie-

-t6

684 IOWA1 190. 7495 7 1.9: 853 t7.:3 88:3.569 JACKSON 19 1891.7 2)11.6 216M.1 2350.' 2530.0

71 JOHNSON 19 3758.4 4145.3 44QS3 '879.6 2S7.672 JONES 19 153.5 1131.3 1201.0 1083.6 1368.7

-- 73 c)K w( - 14- - 26 ~e-2--- 555's VS~. ib 0074 LEE 19 2398.9 249.7 2547.2 2AA6.8 2801.175 LINN 19 137713. 11473.5 12151.1 12965.9 13773.7 .

77 MUSCATINE IV 3(037.q 3361.7 3661.3 3473.4 9Sr.78 SCOTT 19 8338.3 9179.2 9983.8 10~99.7 103,90.769 NotiA _14- - fr8.4 5 7 *0l .. -37,3 .-80 APELLO 15 2167.9 2194.2 2218.1 278.0 254.?81 HASOI1tTN I4 931.3 Q40.3 9S5.1 979,3 1714.1

-- ~~fNS -If-K 1+ - f4.r_ *_ 1 1r~i--~r83 ANOKA 27 7180.7 13uA.2 13442.& 16-44.0 10v,.7.814 -iENTON 27 1911.1 244%.0 343t-.2 3A33.2 422q.1

-4-- 4*4A -AVR ~3S98. * 4 C3 .. ? O se"3 ? t 71 fy . -i-3 - - --96 CHISAGO 27 2790,7 343.6 S463.1 697'.8 9101-437 DAKOTA 27 18285.A 24507.2 32S9A.0 415,41.1 510616.1

R9 FILLMOQE 27 933.2 175 1.1 139.7 I673.70 6U"CATTE 27 3625.7 '610.3 5664.3 680.3 500(.q

9 . .... [ -P- " -0A-27--- +24.3 .2 I t 598.1 ?.D l 7. 9 p-°?" .92 OuSTON 27 1371.3 1647.1 19&4.3 2?38.7 2522.493 ISANTI 27 116.6 147.7 16.1 252.3 317.1

F .- SUEJM064---2-7q -9.3-- $13.6 1"2%v.3 1192.8 A336~.695 MC LEO 27 253.5 327.1 409.9 4196 .o0 54S.496 MEEKER 27 278.6 341.9 403.4 467.4 523.9

98 LSTED 27 7151.4 9200.1 114A1.3 130Pq.6 1A243.599 kAMSEY 27 53985.6 A5?24S.9 76 169sq.1 85585.5 94.19.4

101 SCOTT 27 4451.7 581 5.6 7404.0 9297.0 11274.3132 SHETUQNF 27 45.5 6S33.6 8.3 1134.3 1423.1

-- 4 4--S Ti5 47 --- -q--- --+47 1 1 1 3 717; -6--. -.6104 STEELE e7 2188.5 2716.5 3240.0 3733.0 41Q7.4105 wABAS.,A 27 62.1 7S.4. 87.8 100.3 112.'

-- 6 244 7 --- 14.---F & .7193. -- 26 3-4 -- r~ft-Q -Q107 I[NONA 27 b320.2 527%.2 6211.7 7122.5 8063.9106 WRIGHT 27 2516.1 3479.4 4699.6 5832.' 7454."

11U AUONAIN 20 1239.4 1489.5 1745.0 1994.9 22I1.1ill d0ONE 29 3106.9 3A35.6 4610.1 5415.9 6299.9

- *- ----- --- 7-.4-----+7.4 . i6s 1'.7 21 32.1113 CLANK 24 321.2 371.q 419.' 461.3 A02.7114 FRANKLIN e9 3832.q 5233.7 b842.4 8R8.3 11246.1"S JoArON4----29---.4--. 1.3 149S.6 1Pi0., 2353.0116 JEFFERSON 29 694,&.7 9596.0 12673.3 16664.6 21300.0117 KNOX 29 93.1 106.3 118.2 128.1 137.3

- 118 LE-tIS -213--------3 30 7.0 9 62.3 l.119 LINCOLN 29 1006.2 1334.4 1700.2 2140.3 2643.8120 MACON 29 650.1 801.0 960.9 1123.7 1308,9121- -M&P 4-9-----I3 4v. O 1364.- - 100.6 2 f)r. . --- r-.t-------122 MONROE 29 218.7 277.1 343.9 414.7 497.54 123 MONTGOMEQy 29 320.3 399.9 483.8 R70.0 667.3

D- 260

_ - '

rv ,-.-r.-.-

125 WALLS 29 232.5 306.2 389.5 48-.5126 4ANLOLPH ZY 1150.2 1478.5 1842.4 2250.' 2714.3

127 ST CHARLES 29 7569.6 111S0.4 IS406.2 21590.8 2A470.7

128 ST FRANCOI 2v IA81.3 2367.8 2R99.9 34SS.2 4f(9(.0

129 ST LOUIS 29 35470.9 43099.1 S1030.1 58998.6 67600.9

130 STE GENEVI 29 593.9 737.4 q10.3 1098.9 1310.0_

131 SCHUYLEH 29 114.1 148.3 I13.7 27.7 274.0

132 SCOTLAND 29 92.7 11I.1 127.5 144.1 161.6

1 33- 6lC6dio FO) pss ef-5.134 WAREN 29 471.6 711.0 1002.4 1442.0 1Q62.?

-. 13S WASHINGTON 29 3Z4.0 416.2 S14.4 0532-9 76S.3

137 AAMS 55 ?65.A 346.2 441.9 554.0 671.2138 8AR0N 55 2233.2 2694.7 3191.9 3700.2 4195.7

-1---*3-O Ff 43----- -5--- -. t . .'682 . - -t 23---2t' T' r---- 2 iT.

140 CHIPPEWA 55 614 .16 714.5 422.0 927.1 1'n2Q.9141 CLARK 55 2211.' 2555.5 2924.1 3294.4 3617.3 --r .... - __ . r- --

143 UUNN 55 2397.6 2755.4 3122.4 3496.1 3f9.1

144 EAU CLAIRE sb 7732.4 9002.4 P3 1A.; 11665.0 13052.4!6S G QAT N: - -5---- 6-b60f- vs*or - C, t3 .P - - - ?146 GREENa 55 1394.4 1680.2 2109.9 2347.2

147 IOWA 5b 886.8 1019.4 1164.5 1305.5 14206.5

149 JUNEAU 55 1925.9 2254.9 2630.4 2995.2 3153.:• .

150 LA CROSSE Sb 8304.9 9552.1 IOI.3 12077.7 i33?8..

I51 LAf-A fE -- "S- "" * -"-- - -- . ~ t tt sz.152 !MONROE 55 1523.0 17t9.5 2090.0 2372.5 .' .m153 PEPIN ss 671.9 766.0 R75.2 966.3 in5g.3

155 POLK 55 1089.3 1358.5 1673.4 2007.7 ?l7.k

15s RICHLANO 55 qn3.4 9qn.3 1074.7 114,.7 1149.5

is; IW3n --55--- 9 i76,.3 ;!.;0;.i tte?.. ifO 909. . -tfrj*1.7---

15 ST CROIX 55 3AP1.9 4830.3 6064.A 7435.6 Aq?.5

159 SAUK 55 3439.9 4001.3 459Q.0 5167.2 5725..

161 VERNON 55 I79.4 1821.7 2070.1 2306.2

162 WOOD 55 635.7 $084.2 9309.1 10531.2 11411.1

-- 2-7

..~* . 1 +

-. . . .. .J

TOTAl. RGISTRATIONS INTO IIPPFR MISSISqIPPI A6FA HY YFA' A~Nf C(i' "TY

I ADAMS 14n 193 74n ?87 347-- A N -- 5 . .. . - 7 - "

.2 BOND73 BOONE 2 4 5 7 H4 %ROWN 4 A T A 9

5 BUREAU - 23 -31- -4H c;4 ~-ii. 6 CALHOUN 19 26 31 35 T":

7 CARROLL 47 66 81 95 In-

A -CASS .I- fl ~ ?- ?-----3?-- -379 CHRISTIAN In IA it 19 ?10 CLINTON 4 5 6 7 k

-11 DE KALR- .. . A --.1E .... 13 17 ?112 FAYETTE 3 4 5 13713 FULTON g;6 F7 9A Ills 137

14 GREENE 17 ?4 -3 . 3s15 HANCOCK 34 47 57 67 An16 HENDERSON 2H 46 44 S 6917 HENRY 96 13R 170 ?02 - ?418 JEFFERSON 1 2 3 3 4 O19 JERSEY 22 31 38 46 5? ,20 JO OAVIESS- 64 .- S-----* -- ---- 8----- --------------- 17-21 KNOX 77 107 13? 15722 LA SALLE 17 2S 3? 37 4?

23 LEE -~ -40 - 4.....24 MC DONOUGH 34 53 6A 83 ln425 MACOUPIN 26 37 47 55 6126- MADISON 1. . . . 33 1.31 .- . t 117 - "27 MARION 1 3 3 4 428 MARSHALL ? 3 4 5 -2 20' MASON .. 11 . .. 1- .. -Irv30 MENAkRI S a 1n 12 1431 MERCER 41 66 93 101 10.

--" 32 MONROE A . - A---- - ... . . . ---

33 MONTGOMERY 9 13 16 1R ?I34 MORGAN 2o 28 39 4? 48

--35 OGLE ... 2? 31 3q ? T436 PEORIA 114 162 201 234 pfs37 PERRY p .38 PIKE 3? 13 - " 1 7?39 PUTNAM ? 3 4 C"40 RANDOLPH 4 6 7 9

- 4t-- ROCK ISLAN -. - 9 -- . r- 0 ... . - R ..... . 833-- 9AM42 ST CLAIR AR 1?2 154 180 ?n743 SANGAMON 9 111 130 1l

L 44 SCHUYLFR . - 13 ?1 ?s 17 1)45 SCOTT in 0 11

46 STARK 4 A 7 8 "

4f STEPHENSON 3 L 54 67 79 g48 WARREN 29 41 S0 60 70

*.49 wASHINGTON 1 7 3 3 "50 WHITESIDE 13q 9? - .10 T51 WINNFHAGO Ml 11) 113 iH4 .5? ALLAMAKFF 6114 ?6 103 153 RENTON 19 ?n ~254 BLACK HAWK 14 48 117 1?" i1-55 BRFMFR I I 2cl?56 HUCHANAN ?p j' 3 39 4,"5? CEDAN 3-j SO f? ~59 CHICKASAW ?? 1I i1

D-28

, --- - - - - , i

59 CLAYTON 7A103 121 13S 460 CLINTON 229 310 366 410 437?61 DAVIS- 46 7 I62 DELAWARE 29 40 4A 55 663 DES MOINES 166 214 245s 267 260'I64 DUBUQUE 202 275 331 37S '0665 FAYETTE 3A 47 55 61 6'66 HENRY 29 38 43 47 so*7n~~p- 0 ~ 1i3 is 268 IOWA 810 12 13 1469 JACKSON so 109 129 146 157

* . 7 2F1 ~ O. - ----. 1 3

*71 JOHNSON 100 136 162 182 19672 JONES 41 S4 63 70 .

74 LEE 92 116 134 146 15375 LINN 296 384 47 494 5?7

77 MUSCATNES 13& 184 221 249 2A778 SCOTT 7 n 644 77;) S75 94;?

80 UAPELLO 22 2A 31 33 348 1 WASHINGTON 24 29 33 35 37

L3 ANOKA 3n 751 742 968 117274 jENTON 24 36 52 65 76

76 CuISAGO 35 151 229 304 3987 DAKOTA 837 1401 2050 2724 3362

99 FILLMO E 39 57 73 83 1790 GOOOUE 174 272 36q 461 542

9'6i~~91 816 19571 ialb 134692 HOUSTON 72 108 141 169 19193 ISANTI 24 7 9 12 "' "-" .-.. QA L UUn... - - !32 2 -'• -

95 MC LED A 6 -L 1096 MEEKER 2 3 4 5 6'

98 OLMSTED 290 475 652 815 95"99 MAMSEY 389 '371 5636 6598 7.79

101 SCOTT 173 283 401 518 0.4102 SHERU0QNE 9 16 23 32 41

104 STEELE 5? 79 104 124 130105 WAOASMA 3 5 6 7 9

107 WINONA 233 355 460 549 Ap?108 wRIGHT 5q 101 151 195 249

110 AUORAIN 25 36 47 56 63 -1-, Ill OONE 18 28 37 45 5 ,

113 CLARK 11 17 21 24 ?A114 FRANKLIN 34 57 82 111 1'.0 ".-r& -c"OfA --- 3 13 16 p "'A .....-116 JEFFERSON 48 81 119 161 2916

it? KNOX 2 3 4 .4-........ -- -- 11 12 10 22- -- 2-- .. .. -- '119 LINCOLN 30 50 70 92 113120 MACON 6 12 is 1-

122 MONROE 7 i0 12 15123 MONTGOMERY 6 9 12 14 17

D-29 0

- .- - -o - . , . - . 0% . .

'777--77' 77-77 -

125 RALLS R 13 lA 24 30126 RANDOLPH 10 17 23 29 3127 ST CHARLES 177 325 496 723 67

128 ST FRANCO[ S A 11 14

129 ST LOUIS 482 72' 944 1132 12Q7V. 130 STE GENEVI 1 2 3 4 5

131 SCHUYLER 1 2 2 3132 SCOTLAND 1 2 3 4 4133~I~

134 WARREN 17 27 &1 56

135 WASHINGTON 01 2 2 3

137 ADAMS 1 2 3 4 1.L 138 BARRON 52 76 100 120 13's

- 139 (frALe - 1 t-Ot 2- . .140 CHIPPEWA A 11 15 17 19

141 CLARK 26 38 47 55

143 DUNN 75 107 133 154 177 --

1" EAU CLAIRE 20A 293 372 435 4I66

146 GREEN 23 33 44 53 61147 IOWA 22 31 40 46 51

149 JUNEAU 25 3S 46 54 601S0 LA CROSSE 411 591 737 85? Q'f,

152 MONROE 47 69 88 104 115153 PEPIN 33 4? 59 68 75

155 POLK 26 39 53 66

156 RICHLAND 24 35 4;) 46 4H4

1SS ST CROIX is 239 330 421

159 SAUK 44 64 81 94 10 4-.

161 VERNON 56 80 101 116 !27162 wOOD 38 S4 70 81 4'.

D-30

-w'- ---w w°w -,° - - --

30 WO . ~cN % 01 X~ L C Lr 'Lr - O T C.jJ 41 %C O 0 C % C C 1-t

0W C

N. N M" P- N\ X TC ZC Lr 4 4 -r Z zC x- ~- T 4 N rf . T m.C

En

HnHU ., rO %

rz

0

C-4 - Lr<ZP r0 NM4U)% -XO rN0n

H OCC00000000000

m4 mUL1 1C I ma .m mm . ( Lm

.4D.3.

. .. . . .0

0

0

FINAL OUTPUT(Slippage Forecast)

-I

9

*1 'I-

*1~

a.

0

S

0D- 32

.4

-.- ~-.. -~w. w w - w - - - -

* *.t.I.*.I. * .*. I * - **. .~* - I'

III C, ,'....

~4

I * I I II I...

I ~ *1

C c ?I- -.--mwf.- m m .a - m r rr r r N. x X:

-P r- ol x a ~~C\. ( r- T~ % -C - C f~c

Yt C( -4* L4 T ?1 --

IU t fr X CL 'M rJ

U- X T -" -

N U - -7 - -

.Lf

~~31

W, -D -. ?

CL

- ej' t X~ 40 X 3''t ~ P C T ' -~4 1 '-

'D-3

S

GRAVITY MODEL PROGRAM 0

.4

0

~0

4

D-34

.. ,..-

........... . ...............

. .

iti

49 a

N. q) C

MD I i r4 4 7m do

W, MA 0 C. 0 f &U-~ac -- C; 9- *l%)

o t I T~ 0 AK .0 LwL

a.~~1 4 W

ZZ - 2 l. C06 9-0 2 jI 0 -

C - -. r X . W Wt ~.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ml 9-9 4 aC i.C .i

0w IN ex *0 i w 1 t i-i- t-itI.)~~ ;O *~Q i l4 ,* * 12:

0- v z -CO - 0 0m.0. 4

0X% a.L *IL IC.N .L~ W- IA,- b & *L6 w

LIN irin "

C--d CC mN N i.4p I.

L-- NIJ j L0.2 El&,, L - T

.9 --. JN~~ *.....,..2 - -35 -- .. i.

. . . . . .

I I

p Ic

0 IL C

-U t

C L

z Ir

.1 IrI I

-D-3

P4 4j

*It

-r Coi

I- .21Z I :-;" O r0

oc in

-k Z orIII

40

-r 1.1 1.

D-3

I I

44

71 i on r 0-in

w m

of IL 1

*r rr.C Il M *.1, 4

.44.0

I'LL

kI C"0i

I 2

C..

C,

ix 0

On

- , A

In

S1.. ,

| "

anL~

*~ 0c

6c M, L L)of t

.- •> 04G-.'

2 m

a6 a

'C .

o U - ] --U ZZC 2

D-3

a -'.%

D-39-

i~i:52i:2i!Si~i??)!? .?! IV?!I -,. !:7".!:i- i ::" .-

RD-R128 079 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE AND SMALL 2/aCRAFT LOCKAGES ON T..(U) MIDWEST RESEARCH INST KANSASCITY MO R M MISCHON 26 JUL 78 DACIJ37-77-C-0075

UNCLASSIFIED F/G 13/3 N

EhhhhhhhhhhiE,smhhhhhhhhhhh

LOEo fllllllflllll

-- ,. .,. .- - --,,-- - - - -

L34

IL-

MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHAR'T

'dNATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS -1963-A

*,4

V

1,11A 5 E

o11 10 ___

EM',3

Ic4

LLat c

F- It.

2 Ar0

o, 3. -9 c0.-

*p 0. zt. 0f If Z

aE a' c~ T. M, c

004 II, C t t- a CLU.~~ 2- A, * z

W w. t I:' V, 99 F I0 Z Zv - AD U) & N

m 4t a... A. P M~

m- 4p - a,

D04

-' -w

.4

'a..

0

a.

0 ~14 . Iaa I

2 '0

- 4' 2 2 a. 2IS £ 4 4 4 -

a. 2 4' - -2 a. a.4 0 a. a.

4. 2 - 2 -4 a 4 4. c .r2 c

& - 4' - C -* 2 4' - 4' 2* 4 2 4' - - -.* 2 '- - 4. -

2 * 4 £2 U - £

U 4. 24 2 U 4.

- a £ a. * a a.- 0. - a.

C - £ 2 ±C - 4 - . . -0 2 - 0 - - C

U - U - U -* * a - - .a 2 - - 2 1 Z

U * 2 2 0 22 - 2 - 2 4' 2 - 2'4 u ~ 2 a. z -- a. 2

C .- -'.4 - 2 - - 4' - -' -

U 4 - 2 - -- a -*~ 4 * 0 4 -. 2 - - 4;

- 4 2 . - -

* . 4 3 4 2*2 - 3 - a. -* - C- 2 4' 4'S 4. - 2- 3 3

I 'S- 3 4'.

4. -~* 4 0

4 - - 4 -'S.2 J~ 4 2 - - '

2 - a. 5 -2C - 32

4' -- a. -C-

*4' *4.**'S**4 2 N4**3*0 1S2'S 4. CU'.

5~ 0 -- a.-3 *4~ 2 UC.a. @43 -2 4. 2-N JUOZ -. 1 .Z4'Z4'.2,.~ 4~* C5' .2195' -,44. U *..3~h~...U..'SU4.'S' -

420*0~~I ! -~~-~* 2 222 4-2

ZCZ4CZ...2S.2... .. Z..±U 2 524.1.5 2 34.2£2S..OC4SUUU 4. 34.U.2±2~2r

* 4.~ is U32 4 . 2 24

~ ~ .

4UI4 .55.54 41.55.5

0 4' 0 4. 0 4' 0 is 0 .5- 33 C . 3 3 4' 4' 0 0 -

B-

D-4 1

__ ___ ~~*1W'S 'W W - - W - -- - - - -r - -- 5'----- --

.1

-4

4* 4

0

4'

4~4

C 0

4'

4'

C

f4

q

CC

-C

1.) -

a-z4~

-I'.-4

-. 4.4 -2~.

4-c-~ C-40.

4.41-~

* Il

II ) * - .4.1

72~.A.4 -~

zz ~--~z-~~c:u~acC...z

7 U.LXU.'

~ 4, ~.,c.~. ~t 0

z

a2

I

-4. 0I

4. D-4 24$

4.

'I

4i -w. - - - 0 - - - - - .- 0 - - - S.

APPENDIX E

RECREATION LOCKAGE FORECASTING MODEL AND OUTPUTS

E- 1

r-r C..,-7 "7 -7

The computer documentation and forecasts for the recrea-tion lockage model is contained in this appendix. The methodology

incorporates the coefficients derived through regression analysisand applies them to future estimates of five variables. The fore- -

casting technique is split into two separate models. These models . -

are described below:

1. Pleasure Boats Through the Locks: The forecasting Smodel utilized to estimate pleasure boats through the locks contains

five variables, including:

Variable

1 Flow factor (survey data, summer 1977)

2 Potential marina slip market (gravity model

output--see Appendix D)

3 Forecast of commercial lockage (provided by theI. St. Paul District)

4 Quality of the pools (upstream)

5 Average miles to the next lock (above and below)

The equation is as follows:

Pleasure boats = 7,601.41- 2494.26 (Variable 1)+ -

2.99 (Variable 2) - 0.731 (Variable 3) +

584.20 (Variable 4) - 166 (Variable 5)

Variable 2 (Potential slip market) comes directly from the gravity ..

output. However, prior to incorporating it into the forecasting -model it was converted to the number of slips both above and belowa lock. Conversion of the gravity output (1980) for the first fivelocks is shown below:

E-2

E-2 'S

1980

Gravity Output Potential Slip Market

Lock (Appendix D) (above and below the locks 0

4 51 052 o-/ 0

1-' c/ 1,5742 1,574 4,8773 3,303 4,583

etc. etc. etc.

a/ Potential marina slip market of Locks 51, 52 and I constrainedto 0.

The forecasting model provides 5 years (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995 and2000) and includes data for the remaining four variables described

above. The variables in the forecasting equation subject to major 0changes during the forecast period are the potential slips per pool(above and below) and the forecast of commercial lockages. Al-though the data are not available, the long-distance flow factormay change. For this reason a periodic survey is recommended to

improve the model validity. The model as presently conceived only '-.incorporates flow based on the survey conducted during the summerof 1977.

-* The final step of the first equation is to subject themodel output for each lock to a calibration factor. These factors

were developed by utilizing the model with 1977 data and adjusting

the outputs to correspond to 1977 actual Pleasure Boats through

the locks as shown below:

1977 Pleasure 1977 Pleasure Calibration

Lock Boats (Actual) Boats (Model) Factor

51 1,580 3,971 0.41 -.. :252 1,491 3,376 0.44

1 3,366 2,168 1.552 7,848 7,015 1.12

3 10,947 10,540 1.04 ---. ,4 7,199 9,217 0.78

5 6,189 5,619 1.105A 8,114 6,571 1.23

6 6,494 6,809 0.95 ' :'I

etc. etc. etc. etc.

E-3

4O

7 . - " " . .

The computer program is shown on the following page.The basic data for the five variables are included on 28 separatecards (one card for each pool on the Upper Mississippi River) and 0are shown on the page following the program.

2. Pleasure Boat Lockages: The results of the pre--. vious forecasts are output into a single table described as

"Pleasure Boats Through the Locks." It provides a matrix of 28L locks by five separate forecast years. The data in this matrix

are then subjected to a second equation which converts pleasure

boats through the locks to the number of recreation lockages. Thisequation utilizes the regression coefficients described in Appendix C.The equation accomplishing this conversion is: --

Lockages = pleasure boats (see equation above) x

0.3452 + 412.86 -0

The results of this conversion are output into a second table called .,°

"Pleasure Boat Lockages." This is a matrix of 28 locks by fiveforecast years.

E-4

~ *..T..C- .1 . --- __ ___ __ . S

PROGRAM ONE -PLEASURE BOATS THROUGH THE LOCKS0

LCK~CSTCm SO000*T10. .

ACCOUNT .M350644eMLCAEYM .43870.

COPY9tt.INPUT*TAPE5.REaENOTAPES.

REwINDeTAPRq.

COPY SB * TAPE8.

UNIFOIRE.LGO.

COST.EXIT.

COST.

DIMENSION SRMeKTC5)-COmmL(5)INTEGER P90ATSP,)

WRITE(C6.3)4 FORMATe.O'8sSA, LOCK,6X,4M9A0,5X.4Hl983,SA.'Il99nl.5A.4M1Q95.5X.4H

wRITE (6,4)

I FORArCAZ10(lK.F5.)F4.F5.2lEF3.1.V5i.2)100 READ (5.1 .ENDz99)LOCK.SRM(TCOMML.FLOW.Qi)AL.AVGM!.CFACT

10 PQOATSCI) =(7601.41 - 24QA.26 * LOW + 2.99 * SPMK(T)C -0.131 0 COMMLUl) + 564.20 G UAL -166 *AVGMI) 0 CFACT

70 FONMATC1X.A4,2Xv5(tS.2XflWP1TE(6.2)LUCK.(P40ATSI),Il1.-i)___

GOTO 10099 STOP

E-5

DATA DECK LEGEND

1. Lock

2. Potential Slip Market (Gravity Model)--1980 to 2000

3. Commercial Lockages (St. Paul District)--1980 to 2000

4. Flow Factor (Survey, Summer 1977)

5. Quality of Pools (Upstream)

6. Miles to Next Lock (Above and Below)

7. Calibration Factor (1977)

-E-

.4 4-

4'

.4?

. *. . *.

4 4 P 4- N M M: - -M0QCf-QL P- -4 T %C

-~N N, C".

m~-NL 4' A C7-O 0 -L 0 wC f-~ 7- C N -% Lr x zA '

r- r- U t U LP A ) L UXJP'rLoL L rlON 0' a ' a, a, a- ONa 0 0 0% ON Q C 0 0 00 00 C

CD 0 00 0 0000000 000004 QQ 0 ClCa4-

4 %C xN N m P- a4 %l r M r '-4'r.rk 'r\ M.~ %Va r x 'r

Nl N N m' m' m~ m~ mV m~ mY mi m m~ m * m L %V LC Lir LA' - zC zC zC IC-

a 000 a 0 0 0 Q Q0 C- I0,0N04 CO C c 0 C. C

LN C XX rM. 4 MrnLALAn4 MC'CC'C'

0 0n %C- a 0' LO M N 07- M- MC (n 0 M-q C LA- (X N h- 01 'C C-- . 7-en I-

C -rZf - rr

0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U 0'0'- A'400'CC ' ' 4 0- Pn - Nr LP ', 4r Cf L

o a- a) -l ~.Nei- o~ w- - m ~ --a

N \0 N' .) .0 -4 4 w4 w N 0 M :3' 1 0) - 1, C X S. n -, P

M Z a, a- Z 4 7 ) 1M - ?I- La 7- %Lr X r- LA P- 1- 3\. ZN1 0 - N m-----4 2 - C- M N %

31 ,nq S_ t410NI -I',0 - jI

00 0, N 01 M) (I- r- - 0% % C fn -4 fn LrA - I-4 ,- 7- (X 4 31 a

N 7- .- -4 -4 0.-a4a4-- -

-. 4-4-.40. 0 1- -- -- 4- -

E-7'

*~~~ -ee e - - - - - - - --- -

LnSa

0' aE-4 - 6L -

0 0'

aC

0'

m V- -

M LJ X n.

44 0

-, , 4p 4 4

a cc aD'C - ' .f

(D . LP < f(.L j-

L& 0r w' N. L' LA A c<3 DVI L)-f'p7 ~( ~ P4 m

~ Z4 POOCC

C~fU)* E-8.5.

'0

FORECASTS 0 O'

i.7

I'I1

- ~E-9 ...

"o ,ww w - -- I

pLE. . -.- rs--U. F.- • c1.ATo.. . . • T. .- ..- -•--

LOCK 19ho 198 N 1Q90 199-, 2000

L;1 1677 16 S3 16?7 160 Q 189q?5? 1 504 1 9r,1 1 S3? 1500 14P44

-075

2 17020 25790 34166 4144A 47813 2108H 31277 41042 4964f) 56Q65

4 *F

,* S I,., 51k9 9?16 S28 331A7 f-,1 79R6 88?3 998 7 1fl0 4

7 At- 4 0 10004 11209 1 -270 131308 4 8 d 'i784 6r, 7 P 7?65 I?

10 l362 9651 1074 1171 1?0 711 54H4 6665 1624 150 ? 9??-I e 335113 051)8 7535 8141 9110 (4•787

* 14 89? 10473 11 "? 13---8 3 1 44-.. -

1 "5- -5 3n-55 3 Tprn - -23 95 7 n9n r- :,16 21 %19 q1 5 ?(494

16 ?1? 2488 27.34 .299 ?14

I mi -- 3F- "T- 2-14T- - 24?-

19 Ho 0 I 6 1069 1171 12?20?70 260, 313 336 399)

1 19 4 . 64 - 9 14- . -.. 9 ".-.2? 1Mi 134-4

24 e1 45 -I079c17114 I7 2,4k

79 5--44 6S IT)4 551296 1-5-77 -

--w .*-75.8 1 w 7 7 - .

-- -1- - - - - - - - .3-- -7----- - - 7l

n-- - - - - - - - - -

PTUWA u c- rrE'--E wK ----.. .... .......

LOCK l9mU 19t) 19qo 1 ?4c 2000

" %I% g1 9 Q7,+9?19 94s 941 930

2 62H8 9312 12206 14720 10,f373 7692 11?l ( 14 14' 17c5,t) 20077' 4 P 6 --- 73TI 1... W2 .... - ..... 4 a I --. .L

5 ?1l ??()4 2?P13 2?3 p2r I.C3 A 2h41h I 41 434, P 3 ?7 P 3

15 ~ ~ ~ 2F T 3..... - "2F ...... 30R-- -1 T R3

7 3395 3q6 4?P2 4648 494'" ?100 2409 2691 2920 3113

9-T74 374n--- 34;?410 3249 3744 412? 4457 47 0

?31) ? 13 3n44 33.,7 34.lull• hP n ..... t4 V .... 7 7- " Z' 16~ .. .. 74A - . -

n 13 32q? 3& 57 3711

S 2 3 .3 . 3714 7 ."'

17 ..1 144 7 1 0] 1 3.

19 W4 7 4 71A1 7j kI M4 420 SO 0 ?-.

... 7 37-... -734 ... -735 7 A, R2? 477 4 , 5 4 ? 4 1 ' 7" "4 ] 37 - 1

?51459 - .. qF 7-.. 3n ...... ,4 5? r)755-

-9 b%4 ?S1.: -

E-11

-w * * -- -7 7

.! .. . . . . .

APPENDIX F

RECREATION USE FORECASTS(And Other Related Data)

F-i

- w ~ . .. -w - .- - -- -j

TABLE F-i

COUJNTIES INCLUDED IN SCORP REGIONS

ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MinnesotaRegion 7 Region 10 Region 11

Bent on Dodge AnokaChisago Fillmore CarverIsanti Freeborn DakotaKanabec Goodhue HennepinMeeker Houston RamseyMille Lacs Mover ScottPine Olmsted WashingtonSherburne SteeleStearns WabashaWright Winona

WisconsinRegion 3Region 14 Region 12 Region 13

Grant Crawford Buffalo BarronGreen LaCrosse Jackson DunnIowa Monroe Trempealeau Pep inLaFayette Vernon Pierce --

Richland PolkSauk St. Croix

IowaRegion 1 Region 2 Region 3

Allamakee Benton AppanooseBlack Hawk Iowa DavisBremer Johnson Des MoinesBuchanan Jones HenryButler Linn JeffersonCedar Muscatine KeokukChickasaw Scott LeeClayton Washington LouisaClinton LucasDelaware MahaskaDubuque MonroeFayette Van BurenGrundy Wape 110Howard WayneJacksonWinneshiek -

F- 2

TABLE F-i (concluded)

IllinoisRegion A Region lB Region 3A Region 4.

Boone Bureau Adams BondCarroll Fulton Brown Clinton 0DeKalb Hancock Calhoun MadisonJo Daviess Henderson Cass MonroeLee Henry Christian RandolphOgle Knox Greene St. ClairStephenson LaSalle Jersey WashingtonWhiteside Marshall LoganWinnebago McDonough Macoupin

Mercer MasonPeoria MenardPutnam MontgomeryRock Island MorganStark PikeTazewell SangamonWarren SchuylerWoodford Scott

Missouri *4

lRegion 4 Region 5 Region 10 Region 11

Adair Lewis Lincoln FranklinClark Macon Montgomery JeffersonKnox Marion Warren St. CharlesSchuyler Monroe St. Louis

Scotland Pike St. Louis CityRallsRandolphShelby

F-3

@.9

* = .- . . . . . ..

,- ,. "- .-. ' .- .. . -,o - . . -- ... .. . - -- . .- . . . . .

TABLE F-2

RECREATION USE OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ZONE 1

Recreation Activity Use in Percent

Pool Year Days of Use | Boating Fishing Swimming Water Skiing

,:." U & L ":

SAF 1972 43,300 75 30 10 5

1973 41,200 75 30 10 5

1974 52,700 75 30 5 5

1975 78,500 60 10 5 5

1976 82,500 60 10 5 5

1977 79,800 60 10 5 5

1 1972 48,6OO 45 30 0 0

1973 58,800 45 30 0 01974 92,500 50 40 1 01975 87,500 50 40 1 0

1976 92,100 50 40 1 0

1977 88,400 50 40 1 02 1972 228,300 70 25 0 10

1973 267,600 70 25 0 10 1-

1974 284,700 70 25 0 10

1975 303,500 70 10 0 10

1976 318,7OO 70 10 0 10

1977 304,100 70 10 0 10

3 1972 492,200 65 35 0 30

1973 506,000 65 35 0 30. 1974 533,800 50 40 5 30

1975 515,000 50 40 5 10

1976 530,500 60 40 5 10

1977 509,900 60 40 5 10

Totals 1972 812,400 64 30 2 11

1973 873,600 64 30 2 11 01974 963,700 61 29 3 11

1975 984,500 58 25 3 6

1976 1,023,800 60 25 3 6 1

1977 982,200 60 25 3 6

Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977 is 20.9

Source: U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers(RRMS)...

F-4-: F-4 -.

--. -. .. .. .' ' : :: : "::::!' -""' ." - - "

- . - - - . . i , -. '.' - ." .-- ". . ... ..

TALE F-2 (continued)

Z(NE 2


Pool Year Days of Use r Boating Fishing Swimming Water Skiing '0

4 1972 460,400 75 30 10 35

1973 456,600 75 30 10 35

1974 540,900 75 40 15 351975 538,600 75 40 15 351976 554,600 75 25 10 20

1977 530,700 75 25 10 20

5 1972 63,000 70 45 7 11

1973 61,500 70 45 7 11

1974 174,200 70 45 5 151975 181,100 70 45 5 15

1976 190,400 50 10 5 251977 186,400 50 10 5 25

5A 1972 240,400 65 30 10 15

1973 230,200 65 30 10 15

1974 241,200 65 40 10 10

1975 244,300 65 40 10 10

1976 256,700 65 40 10 10

1977 246,700 65 40 10 10

6 1972 488,700 60 72 10 22

1973 519,800 60 72 10 22

1974 530,400 75 72 10 251975 544,500 75 75 10 10 41-1976 560,500 60 20 10 20

1977 538,500 60 20 10 20

7 1972 308,800 20 65 8 151973 319,200 20 65 8 151974 311,900 70 60 10 151975 316,700 70 60 10 101976 333,000 60 20 15 201977 321,400 60 20 15 20

8 1972 407,500 35 66 10 151973 432,200 35 66 10 15

1974 429,700 40 70 10 15

1975 455,700 50 60 10 10

1976 478,700 50 25 5 101977 464,400 50 25 5 10

9 1972 438,600 35 67 8 151973 438,100 35 67 8 151974 438,700 55 70 8 151975 482,800 55 60 10 101976 498,200 50 20 5 51977 474,400 50 20 5 5

Totals 1972 2,407,400 51 54 9 18

* . 1973 2,457,600 51 54 9 18

1974 2,667,000 64 57 10 19

1975 2,763,700 66 54 10 14

4 1976 2,872,100 59 23 9 11977 2,762,500 59 23 9 16

Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977is 14.8

Source: (see F-4) . F-5

• , . . . . .

- .. -4

TABLE F-2 (continued)

ZONE 3

Recreation Activity Use in PercentPool Year Days of Use Boating Fishing Swimming Water SkiinE

10 1972 354,600 45 67 7 221973 342,800 45 67 7 221974 345,500 45 65 10 201975 353,500 45 65 10 101976 371,400 45 10 10 101977 358,000 45 10 10 10

11 1972 335,000 15 33 11 11973 445,700 15 36 10 11974 521,000 15 36 12 11975 640,000 55 52 30 51976 642,800 30 50 2 21977 1,600,700 37 36 2 2

12 1972 563,600 15 33 11 11973 574,100 16 33 10 21974 712,700 16 33 10 21975 922,000 30 55 10 31976 1,392,400 30 50 2 21977 1,272,000 39 32 2 2

13 1972 1,112,000 15 33 11 11973 2,646,200 15 33 11 11974 2,690,300 15 33 11 11975 3,215,700 25 45 12 11976 3,025,600 30 50 2 21977 1,413,600 31 33 1 2

Totals 1972 2,365,200 22 42 10 61973 4,008,800 23 42 10 61974 4,269,500 23 42 11 61975 5,131,200 39 54 16 51976 5,432,200 34 40 4 41977 4,644,300 38 28 4 4

Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977 is 96.4.

Source: (see F-4).

* .-

F-6 S

"...............

TABLE F-2 (continued)*1

I, zoNE 4


Pool Year Days of Use Boating Fishing Swiming Water Skiing I

14 1972 687,200 15 33 11 1 -1973 475,100 18 33 2 1

194 887,200 18 33 211975 909,200 20 35 2 1

1976 749,900 30 50 2 2

1977 2,316,400 36 39 2 3

15 1972 419,400 35 51 1 131973 646,500 37 52 1 14

1974 589,500 37 52 1 141975 798,600 45 60 2 20

' 1976 419,000 30 50 2 21977 2,102,700 41 31 1 4

16 1972 1,117,300 12 29 8 61973 2,644,000 14 39 8 6

1974 i,768,000 14 29 6 61975 2,043,000 30 40 10 111976 1,153,200 30 50 2 21977 2,470,300 32 37 2 4

17 1972 784,800 10 33 1 11973 642,500 10 38 1 21974 382,600 10 38 1 21975 617,200 15 38 2 31976 653,400 30 50 2 2

1977 1,159,400 30 39 2 218 1972 508,000 12 23 16 2

1973 868,300 15 41 17 31974 876,900 15 41 17 31975 890,700 20 42 18 31976 735,800 30 50 2 21977 1,630,900 29 40 3 2

19 1972 196,100 12 23 16 21973 2,707,600 14 28 18 31974 3,059,000 14 28 18 3

1975 3,111,000 20 30 19 41976 I,855,400 30 50 2 2

1977 2,623,300 31 36 4 4

Totals 1972 3,712,800 16 32 9 41973 7,984,000 18 38 8 51974 7,563,200 18 37 8 51975 8,369,700 25 41 9 71976 5,566,700 30 50 2 2

" 1977 12,303,000 33 37 2 3Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977is 231.4.Source: (see F-4).

F-7

r - . ..


ZO 5,.

Recreation Activity Use in PercentPool Year Days of Use Boating Fishing Swishing Water SkiinE

20 1972 124,4oo 1 68 1 11973 180,700 2 69 1 1

1974 206,400 3 69 1 1

1975 208,800 4 71 2 2

1976 145,200 30 50 2 2

1977 259,900 30 37 2 3

r 21 1972 488,l0 1 68 1 1

1973 2,069,400 5 39 1 1

1974 4,208,700 5 39 1 11975 4,239,600 20 50 2 2

1976 2,418,100 30 50 2 2

1977 2,177,100 33 30 3 3

22 1972 237,200 1 17 1 J

1973 237,200 1 17 1 1

1974 570,500 30 17 2 5

1975 610,500 40 20 5 10

1976 1,112,700 30 50 2 2

1977 1,528,200 28 33 6 3 024 1972 406,800 75 30 5 15

1973 256,400 25 30 5 1

1974 541,700 30 32 4 31975 454,600 30 32 4 31976 502,400 21 35 26 91977 504,019 21 35 26 9

25 1972 867,900 75 40 10 201973 494,800 30 30 5 1

1974 1,020,100 30 35 4 31975 390,100 30 35 4 31976 1,396,300 21 35 26 91977 1,400,725 21 35 26 9 A

Totals 1972 2,124,400 31 45 4 8 __

1973 3,238,500 13 37 3 1

1974 6,547,400 20 38 2 3

1975 5,903,600 25 42 3 4

1976 5,574,700 26 44 12 5

1977 5,869,944 27 34 13 5 4

Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977 is 176.3Source: (see F-4).

F-8

,......................

.. 5............. .......

TABLE F-2 (concluded)

zoNE 6

Recreation Activity Use in PercentPool Year Days of Use j Boating Fishing Swimming Water SkiingW

26 1972 2,718,900 70 30 35 251973 1,548,900 50 35 10 21974I 3,121,100 33 36 4 31975 4,059,500 33 36 4i 3

1976 3,939,200 21 35 6 9I,1977 3,951,781 21 35 26 9Percent of Total Increase 1972-1977 is 45.3Source: (see F-4) .

F- 9

4 .- .-. •

TABLE F-3

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR APPROPRIATE AGE GROUP*BY SCORP REGIONS AND USE ZONES ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

SCORP REGION U185 19 1995 2000

Zone 1Minnesota 7 289,600 316,500 348,000 379,500 LL15, 00Minnesota 11 1,827,000 1,905,700 2,003,500 2,093,300 2,161,900Wisconsin 13 166,500 176,600 199,900 218,800 236,600

TOTAL 2,283,100 2,398,800 2,551,400 2,691,6OO 2,813,900

Zone 2Minnesota 10 332,700 344,40 357,00 370,400 378,900

Wisconsin 4 145,400 150,800 157,000 162,800 i66,700 7Wisconsin 12 49,700 51,500 53,700 55,800 57,300TOTAL 527,800 546,700 567,700 589,000 602,O00

Z~one3

Iowa 1 445,400 459,100 471,400 486,900 5104,600Wisconsin 3 161,ooo 168,000 176,800 185,600 192,300

Illinois IA 571,900 607,4 O 649,000 697,700 756,400TOTAL 1,178,300 1,234,500 1,297,200 1,370,200 1,453,300

Zone 4Iowa 425,100 444,900 461,L.oo 477,700 49L,700 7Iowa 3 216,400 215,200 214,600 215,600 217,700

Illinois 1B 979,100 1,015,100 1,054,700 1,105,800 1,179,000TOTAL 1,620,6OO 1,675,200 1,730,700 1,799,100 1,291,4OO

ZoneMissouri 4 44,900 46,500 48,000 30,000 51,OOMissouri 5 111,800 115,300 119,000 123,100 127,400Missouri 10 43,000 49,500 56,000 65,100 74,300Illinois 3A 532,700 545,600 571,100 592,800 636,500

TOTAL 732,400 756,900 794,100 331,000 890,100zone 6• 4Missouri 11 1,597,100 1,625,100 1,653,200 1,719,600 1,786,300

Illinois 4 652,200 653,400 685,600 720,400 750,300TOTAL 2,249,300 2,278,500 2,338,800 2,440,000 2,536,600 - -

* Minnesota--6 years and over Source: Illinois--Bureau of the Budget (1977)Wisconsin--6 years and over Iowa--Office for Planning and Programm-Iowa--12 years and over ing (Series 1-76, No. 2)Illinois--All age groups Minnesota--Office of the State Demographer,Missouri--6 years and over November 1975

Missouri--Office of Administration,

November 10, 1976

Wisconsin--Department of Administration June

1975

F- 10

, - - ,r - -,-- " " 01

- •. " ...

TABLE F-4

POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS 0

Percent Change from 1980State and Region 1985 1990 1995 2000

Illinois:All Population

Region IA 6.2 13.5 22.0 32.3Region lB 3.7 7.7 12.9 20.4.Region 3A 2.4 7.2 11.3 19.5Region 4 0.2 10.5 15.0

Total Change 3.1 8.2 13.9 -1.4

Minnesota:6 Years and Over

Region 7 9.3 20.2 31.0 43.4Region 10 3.5 7.3 11.3 13.9Region 11 4.3 - 14.6 18.3

Total Change r. 1 20.7

Wisconsin:6 Year and Over

Region 3 4.3 9.8 15.3 19.4Region 4 3.7 8.0 12.0 14.6Region 12 3.6 8.0 12.3 15.3Region 13 6.1 20.1 31.4 42.1

- Total Change IT7 1 19.2 27.9

Iowa:1- ears and Over

Region 1 3.1 5.8 9.3 13.3Region 2 4.7 8.5 12.4 16.4Region 3 -o.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.6

Total Change 3.0 5 12.0

Missouri:6 Years and Over

. Region 4 3.6 6.9 11.4 15.6Region 5 3.1 6.4 10.1 14.0Region 10 15.1 30.2 51.4 72.8Region 11 1.8 3.5 7.7 11.8

Total Change 2.2 9.0 13.5

F-11

. z i .° .. . .

TABLE F-5

PER CAPITA PARTICIPATION RATES BY SCORP REGIONSALONG TH UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

(Figures in Parenthesis Reflect A Base Year Rate: 1970 100)

MinnesotaActivity Region 7 Region 10 Region 11

Boating (excluding 8.13 (9.03) 7.72 (8.58) 9.37 10.41)canoeing, sailing)

Fishing, warn cold 8.08 '8.33) 6.11 k6.30) 8.48 (8.74)water

Swimming 20.11 (22.34) 23.93 ',26.59) 26.39 -29.32)Water Skiing 2.15 (2.69) 2.57 (3.21) 2.35 (2.94)Canoeing 0.82 (1.02) o.61 10.76) 0.86 (i.o8)

Source: Minnesota Outdoor Recreation Plan--1968 based Dn 1966-1967 lata.

WisconsinActivity Region j3 -egion Region 12 Region 13

Boating (excluding 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12canoeing, sailing)

Fishing, fresh water 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51(warm/cold)

Swimming 14.58 14.58 14.58 14.58Water Skiing i.23 1.23 1.23 1.23Canoeing 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 . -.

Source: "Opportunities in the Leisure Industry," Vol. 2, StatisticalSummary 1970; Rates used were for the North Central Region of the J.S.

IowaActivity eion1 Region 2 eio 3

Boating powerboating, 4.96 (4.13) 4.90 (4.o8) 4.83 4.02)water skiing, andother boating)

Fishing 8.09 (7.35) 7.25 (6.59) 9.13 .30)Swimming, other 2.45 (2.04) 4.01 (3.34) 3.56 (2.97)(pools excluded)

Water Skiing (1970 L/R 1.23 (same) 1.23 (same) 1.23 (same)N. Central Region rate)

Canoeing, Kayak 1.I0 (0.81) 0.65 (0.48) 0.61 '0.45)

Source: Statewide Summary Tables, SCORP 1975.

F- 12

-W"- ...w W W W W W W -W_ - .W


IllinoisAciiy Region LA Region 13 Region 3A 7.qsion -

3oating '>10 hr 4.86 (4.05) 3.25 (2,71) 2.51 (20) 57- .4.2)or less, greaterthan 1.0 hp)

Fishing 'rate 5.96 ,same) 5.91. 'same) 5.94 'same) 5.5 ame)from 1970 stateDlan)

Swmig(beach 5.35 4.L6) 3.80 (3.17) 3.25 '.1 > .4swimming otherthan ,9 Lake Mich.no pool use)

dater Skiing 0.4~4 "same) D.LL3 'same) 0 .44 'same) 2> sarne"(rate from 1970State plan) '.5 .4 .- '.-Canoeing, rivers 2.05 '1.52) 1.02 (07) 12 .5 .7 '.5and streams,lakes and Dondsj;

Source-. 1976 Ill.inois SCCRP iraft, June 1977.

Missouri

*U L-iit egion 4Region 5 Region 10 ?.tgicn I

Boating 3.86 (3.45) 5.06 4.52) 3.62 (,3.23) 2 IFishing 15.04 114.6o) 1.9 (.6) 50 4.92) 5.05 4;

cold/warm)Swimming, lake 6.92 (6.18) 8.44 (7.54) 2.99 (2.67) d. 16 -.711

pool exc:luded'dater Skiing 2.10 (1.74) 0.9?2 (0.76) 1.05 (0.87) 0.58 0.46)Canoeing, 3.31 (2.74) 2.73 (2.26) 0.43 (0.36) 0.50' :.56)

floating

Source: 1973 Missouri $CORP Demand Update.

F- 13

- - - - ~-7 - - - - S

. .w . .-. . .'... ..

.. i,..

TABLE F-6 0

-*, .. FORECAST OF PARTICIPATION RATES BY SCORP REGION .

AND USE ZONE ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER

X ZONE 1

Per Capita Participation Rate

Activity 11980 1915 1990 1995 2000

Minnesota 7:

Boating 12.64 14.90 17.16 19.41 21.67Fishing 9.16 9.58 10.00 10.41 10.83Swimming 31.28 36.86 42.45 48.03 53.62Water Skiing 4.57 5.78 6.99 8.20 9.42Canoeing 1.73 2.19 2.65 3.11 3.57

Minnesota 11:Boating 14.57 17.18 19.78 22.38 24.98Fishing 9.61 10.05 10.49 10.92 11.36Swimming 41.05 48.38 55.71 63.04 70.37Water Skiing 5.00 6.32 7.64 8.97 10.29Canoeing 1.84 2.32 2.81 3.29 3.78

Wisconsin 13:Boating 5.77 6.80 7.83 8.86 9.89Fishing 7.16 7.49 7.81 8.14 8.46Swimming 20.41 24.06 27.70 31.35 34.99Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing 0.65 0.82 0.99 1.16 1.33 0

F-14

p.S.

-,- - 14 -

oS


ZONE 2

Per capita Participation Rate

Activity I198'185 90 2000

Minnesota 10-Boating 12.01 14.16 16.30 18.45 20.59Fishing 6.93 7.24 7.56 7.88 8.19Swimming 37.23 43.87 50.52 57.17 63.82Water Skiing 5.46 6.90 8.35 9.79 11.240Canoeing 1.29 1.63 1.98 2.32 2.66

Wisconsin 4:Boating 5.77 6.80 7.83 8.86 9.89

Fishing 7.16 7.49 7.81 8.14 8.46Swiming 20.41 24.06 27.70 31.35 34.99 "Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing 0.65 0.82 0.99 1.16 1.33

Wisconsin 12:Boating 5.77 6.80 7.83 8.86 9.89Fishing 7.16 7.49 7.81 8.14 8.46Swiming 20.41 24.06 27.70 31-35 34.99Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing o.65 0.82 0.99 1.16 1.33

F-15

[-.-.

4.-' • -----

L TABLE F-6 (continued)

ZONE 3

Per Capita Participation RateActivity 11980 1985 122-0 199 200

Iowa 1:" Boating 5.78 6.81 7.85 8.88 9.91 - -

Fishing 8.08 8.45 8.82 9.19 9.56Swimming 2.86 3.37 3.88 4.39 4.90Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing 1.38 1.74 2.11 2.47 2.84

Wisconsin 3:Boating 5.77 6.80 7.83 8.86 9.89Fishing 7.16 7.49 7.81 8.14 8.46Swimming 20.41 24.06 27.70 31.35 34.99

Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing 0.65 0.82 0.99 1.16 1.33

Illinois IA:Boating 5.67 6.68 7.70 8.71 9.72Fishing 6.56 6.85 7.15 7.45 7.75Swimming 6.24 7.36 8.47 9.59 10.70Water Skiing 0.75 0.95 1.14 1.34 1.54Canoeing 2.58 3.27 3.95 4.64 5.32

F- 16

0*" °-w - °-


ZODNE 4

Per Capita Participation Rate0

Activity r-1980 19b5 12990 1995 2000

Iowa 2:Boating 5.71 6.73 7.75 8.77 9.79Fishing 7.25 7.58 7.91 8.24 8.57Swimming 4.68 5.51 6.35 7.18 8.02 '

Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing o.82 1.03 1.25 1.46 1.68

Iowa 3:Boating 5.63 6.63 7.64 8.64 9.65Fishing 9.13 9.54 9.96 10.38 10.79 '

Swimming 4.16 4.90 5.64 6.39 7.13Water Skiing 2.09 2.64 3.20 3.75 4.30Canoeing 0.76 0.97 1.17 1.37 1.58

Illinois 1B:Boating 3.79 4.47 5.15 5.83 6.50Fishing 6.50 6.80 7.09 7.39 7.68Swimming 4.44 5.23 6.02 6.82 7.61Water Skiing 0.73 0.92 1.12 1.31 1.50Canoeing 1.28 1.61 1.95 2.29 2.62

F-17

- - -- :''

. w * •-w w __- ---- .---


-ON 5


Activity j122-0 19835 1990 1995 20

Missouri 4:Boating 4.83 5.69 6.56 7.4+2 8.28Fishing 16.o6 16.79 17.52 18.25 18.98Swimming 8.65 10.20 11.74 13.29 114.83Water Skiing 2.96 3.74 4.52 5.33- 6.09Canoeing 4.66 5.89 7.12 8.36 9.59

Missouri 5:Boating 6.33 7.146 8.59 9.72 io.85Fishing 12.28 12.83 13.39 13.95 14.51Swimming 10.56 12.144 14.33 16.21 18.10

*Water Skiing 1.29 1.63 1.98 2.32 2.66Canoeing 3.84 4.86 5.88 6.89 7.91

Missouri 10:Boating 4.52 5.33 6.14 6.94 7.75Fishing 5.41 5.66 5.90 6.15 6.40Swimming 3.74 4.141 5.07 5.74 6.41Water Skiing 1.48 1.87 2.26 2.65 3.0o4Canoeing 0.61 0.77 0.94 1.10 1.26 V

Illinois 3A:.Boating 2.93 3.45 3.97 4.49 5.01Fishing 6.53 6.83 7.13 7.42 7.72Swimming 3.79 4.47 5.15 5.83 6.50Water Skiing 0.75 0.95 1.14 1.34 1.54Canoeing 1.78 2.26 2.73 3.20 3.68

F-18

T


zoNE 6


Activity 1980 1985 190299 2000

Missouri 11:Boating 2.65 3.12 3.59 4.o6 4.54Fishing 5.39 5.64 5.88 6.12 6.37Swimming 5.19 6.12 7.05 7.98 8.90

Water Skiing 0.82 1.03 1.25 1.46 1.68

Canoeing 1.12 1.42 1.72 2.01 2.31

Illinois 4-Boating 6.75 7.95 9.1.6 10.36 11.57Fishing 6.44 6.73 7.02 7.31 7.60Swimming 6.36 7.49 8.63 9.76 10.90Water Skiing 0.73 0.92 1.12 1.31 1.50

KCanoeing 0.94 1.18 1.43 1.68 1.92

7-19

0

TABLE F-7

FORECAST OF RECREATION DAYS BY 3CORP REGIONAND USE ZONE ALONG- THE UPPER MIISSISSIPPI RI'ER

ZON~E I

Recreation 2aysActivity 19d" 1990 99 2000

Minnesota 7:Boating 3,660,500 4,715,800 5,971,700 7,366,100 9,001,700Fishing 2,652,700 3,032,100 3,480,000 3,950,600 4,498,800Swimming 9,358,700 11,666,200 14,772,600 18,227,400 22,273,700Water Skiing 1,323,500 1,829,400 2,432,500 3,111,900 3,913,100Canoeing 501,000 693,100 922,200 1,180,200 1,483,000

Minnesota 11:Boating 26,619,400 32,739,900 39,629,200 46,848,100 54,004,300Fishing 17,557,500 19,152,300 21,016,700 22,858,800 24,559,20Swimming 74,998,400 921780111,615,000 131,961,6001213,0

'dater Skiing ?,135,000 12,344,000 15,306,700 18,776~,900 22,246,000Canoeing 3,361,700o 4,421,200 5,629,800 6,887,000 8,172,000

Wiscon~sin 13:Boating 960,700 1,200,900 1,565,200 1,938,600 2,340,000

Fising 1,192,100 1,322,700 1,561,200 1,781,-00 ,0,0Swimming 3,398,300 4,249,000 5,537,200 6,859,400 8,278,600Water Skiing 348,000 466,200 639,700 820,500 1,017,400Canoeing 108,200 144,800 197,900 253,800 314,700

Zone 1 Totals:Boating 31,240,600 38,656,600 47,166,100 56,152,800 65,346,'00Fishing 21,402,300 23,507,100 26,057,900 28,590,400 31,059,600Sw'mming 87,455,400 108,113,000 131,924,80 157,048,400 182,85,00'Water Skiing 10,806,500 14,339,600 18,378,900 22,709,300 27,176,500Canoeing 3,970,900 5,259,100 6,749,900 8,321,000 9,9b9,700

F-20

V.o


ZONE 2

Recreation DaysActiity L90 1905 19 1995 2000 .

Minnesota 10:3oating 3,995,700 4,876,700 5,819,100 6,833,900 7,3OI,600Fishing 2,305,600 2,493,500 2,69E,900 2,918,800 3,103,200Swimming 2 23864oo 1.5,108,800 28,035,600 21,1.83,200 24,le8l,400'dater Skiing 1,816,500 2,376,400 2,981,000 3,626,200 4,258,800anoeing 429,200 561,4,00 706,900 859,300 1,"07,900

Wisconsin 4:Boating 839,000 1,025,400 1,229,300 1,42, 4W00 1,648,700Fishing 1,041,100 1,129,500 1,226,200 1,325,200 1,410,300

Swimming 2,967,600 3,628,200 4,348,900 5,103,800 5,832,800Water Skiing 303,900 398,100 502,400 610,500 716,800Canoeing 94,500 123,700 155,400 188,300 221,700

Wisconsin 12:Boating 286,800 350,200 420,500 494,400 566,700Fishing 355,900 385,700 419,400 454,200 484,800Swimming 1,014,400 1,239,100 1,749,300 2,004,900'.ater Skiing 103,900 136,00o 171,800 209,200 246,400.anoeing 32,300 42,200 53,200 64,700 76,200

Zone 2 Totals:Boatirng 5,121,500 6,252,300 7,468,900 8,770,700 10,017,000Fishing 3,702,600 4,008,700 4,344,500 4,698,200 4,998,300Swimming 16,368,400 19,976,10023,872,000 28,036,300 32,019,100Water Skiing 2,224,300 2,910,500 3,655,200 4,445,900 5,222,000

j anoeing 556,000 727,300 915,500 1,112,800 1,305,800

_0_

F-21

7-- .

-. .. . . , •-

q.• - - . . -7 - '' -. . -.


ZORNE 3

Recreation DaysActivity f 96i 90 1995 f

Iowa 2.:Boating 2,574,400 3,126,500 3,700,500 4,323,700 5,3o0,600Fishing 3,598,800 3,879,400 4,157,700 4,1+74,600 4,3124,000Swiming 1,273,800 1,547,200 1,329,000 2,1.37,500 2,472,500Water Skiing 930,900 1,2200 1,508,500 1,290 216,0Canoeing 614,700 798,800 994,700 1,202,600 1,433,100

Wisconsin 3:Boating 929,000 1,142,400 1,384,300 1,644,400 1,?o1,800Fishing 1,152,800 1,258,300 1,380,800 1,51.0,800 1,626,900Swimming 3,286,000 4,042,2.00 4,897,400 5,818,600 6,728,600Water Skiing 336,500 443,500 565,800 696,000 326,900Canoeing 104,600 137,800 175,000 215,300 255,80C

Illinois IA:Boating 3,242,700 4,057,400 4,997,300 6,077,000 7,352,200Fishing 3,751,700 4,160,700 4,640,400 5,197,900 5,862,100Swimming 3,568,700 L,470,500 5,497,000 6,690,900 8 093,500Water Skiing 428,900 577,000 739,900 934,900 1,164,,900

OLCanoeing 1,475500 ,986,200 2,563600 3,237,300 4,024,000

Zone 3 Totals:Boating 6,7'46,100 8,326,300 10,082,100 12,045,100 14,254,600Fishing 8,503,300 9,298,400 2.0,1.78,900 2.1,2.83,300 2.2,32.3,000Swimig 8,128,500 10,059,800 12,223,400 14,647,000 17,294,600

'Water Skiing 1,696,300 2,232,500 2,82.4,200 9,456,800 4,161,600Canoeing 2,194,800 2,922,800 3,733,300 4,655,200 5,72.2,?00

J.1

F-22

- - 7-


ZONE 4

Recreation DayOActivity 91950 1 9 5 20C01990..

Iowa 2:Boating 2,427,300 2,994,200 3,575,800 4,i39,400 4,ic,10OFishing 3,082,000 3,372,300 3,649,700 3,936,200 4,239,600Swimming 1,989,500 2,451,400 2,929,900 3,429,900 3,967,500Water Skiing 888,500 1,174,500 1,476,500 1,791,400 2,127,200Canoeing 348,600 458,200 576,500 697,400 831,10

Iowa 3:Boating 1,218,300 1,426,8OO 1,639,500 i,862,800 2,100,00Fishing 1,975,700 2,053,000 2,137,400 2,237,900 2, ,3,oSwimming 900,200 1,054,500 1,210,300 1,377,700 1,552,200Water Skiing 452,300 568,100 686,700 808,500 936,100Canoeing 164,500 208,700 251,100 295,400 34,4,000

Illinois 1B:Boating 3,710,800 4,537,500 5,431,700 6,446,800 7,663,500Fishing 6,364,200 6,902,700 7,477,8OO 8,171,o0 9,354,700Swimming 4,347,200 5,309,000 6,349,300 7,541,6OO 8,972,200Water Skiing 714,700 933,900 1,181,300 1,448,600 1,768,500Canoeing 1,253,200 1,63,300 2,056,700 2,532,300 .,'E9,30C

Zone 4 Totals:3oating 7,356,400 8,958,500 10,647,OOO 12,499,0OO 14,607,4ooFishing 11,121,900 12,328,000 13,264,9OO 14,346,ooo 15,643,300Swimming 7,236,900 8,814,900 10,489,500 12,349,200 14,41,900Water Skiing 2,055,500 2,676,500 3,344,5OO 4,o48,500 4,831,8OOCanoeing 1,766,300 2,301,200 2,884,600 3,525,100 4,264,130 " -,

F- 23

• - - 6°*

N.q


ZONE 5

kctivity Recreation Days

12-20 196 1990 2.Missouri 4:

Boating 216,9OO 264,600 314,900 371,000 429,700Fishing 721,100 780,700 841,OOO 912,500 985,100Swimming 388,400 474,300 563,500 664,500 769,700'Water Skiing 132,900 173,900 217,000 265,500 316,l0Canoeing 209,200 273,900 341,8oo 418,0oo 497,700

Missouri 5:Boating 707,700 860,1OO 1,022,200 1,196,500 1,382,300Fishing 1,372,900 1,479,300 1,593,400 1,717,200 1,848,600Swimming i,180,600 1,434,300 1,705,300 1,995,500 2,305,900Water Skiing 144,200 187,900 235,600 285,600 338,900Canoeing 429,300 560,400 699,700 848,200 1,007,700 --4

Missouri 10:Boating 194,4oo 263,800 343,800 451,800 575,800.ishing 232,600 280,200 330,400 400,4OO 475,500Swimming 160,800 218,300 283,900 373,700 476,300'Water Skiing 63,600 92,600 126,600 172,500 225,900•anoeing 26,200 38,100 52,600 71,600 93,600

Illinois 3.k:Boating 1,560,800 1,882,300 2,267,300 2,661,700 3,188,900Fishing 3,478,500 3,726,400 4,071,900 4,398,600 4,913,800Swimming 2,018,900 2,438,800 2,941,200 3,456,000 4,137,200'Water Skiing 399,500 518,300 651,100 794,400 980,200 "-anoeing 948,200 1,233,100 1,559,100 1,897,000 2,342,300

Zone 5 Totals:3oating 2,679,800 3,270,800 3,948,200 4,681,000 5,576,700Fishing 5,805,100 6,266,600 6,836,700 7,428,700 3,223,000Swimming 3,748,700 4,565,700 5,493,900 6,489,700 7,689,100ater Skiing 740,200 972,700 1,230,300 1,518,000 1,861,100Canoeing 1,612,900 2,105,500 2,653,200 3,234,800 3,941,300

Q -0

iL.4

F-24

.. ",-w .w_-_w_- -- '

, -, -2 ..-

* . '-. ."-


ZONE6

Recreation Days

Activity 49_ M ___9_1 1990 1995 2000

Missouri 11:Fishing 8,6o8,400 9,165,600 9,720,800 10,523,9W0 11,378,700

Swimming 8,288,900 9,945,600 11,655,100 13,722,400 15,398,100"' Water S-kiing 1,309,600 1,673,900 2,o66,500 ,1,0 ,0,0

Canoeing 1,788,800 2,307,600 2,843,500 3,456,400 4,126,400

Illinois 4:Boating 4,402,400 5,194,500 6,280,100 7,463,300 8,681,300

Fishing 4,200,200 4,397,400 4,812,900 5,266,100 5,702,300

Swimming 4,148,000 4,894,000 5,916,700 7,031,100 3,178,300

Water Skiing 476,100 601,100 767,900 943,700 1,125,400 *

Canoeing 613,100 771,000 980,400 1,210,300 1,440,600

Zone 6 Totals:Boating 8,634,700 10,264,800 12,215,100 14,444,9oo 6,790, 0.Fishing 12,808,600 13,563,000 14,533,700 15,790,000 17,381,300Swimming 12,436,900 14,839,600 17,571,800 20,753,500 24,)76,C0

Water Skiing 1,785,700 2,275,000 2,834,400 3,454,300 4,126,40Canoeing 2,401,900 3,078,600 3,823,900 4,666,700 5,567,0C .-

F-25

0 - - -- -.

APPENDIX G

SIMILAR PROJECT AN'ALYSIS OF RECREATION

USE ON UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER(Program and Outputs)

G- 1

-.-.- -.-- r"-"Cr-C "-- -. " -j

METHODOLOGY

MRI modified the Corps similar "project concept," utiliz-

ing per capita use rates from the GREAT Recreation Demand Analysis,

0 June 1976. First the per capita use rates for the 13 pools under the

Li jurisdiction of the St. Paul District were analyzed and classified

into three types of pools (urban river pools, rural river pools and Slakes). The basis for this classification was primarily the resources

in the pool and the type of per capita use rates generated at the 13

I. pools. Further classification would have resulted in little distinc-

tion between the classes because the per capita use rates varied- little. Four pools were classified as urban river pools (including the -

Upper and Lower St. Anthony Falls, Pool 1 and Pool 2). Seven pools-[. were classified as rural river pools (pools 3, 5, 5A, 6, 7, 8 and 10).

The lake classification included two pools, 4 and 9 (see Table G-l).

These rates were assumed to be characteristic of all pools

along the Upper Mississippi River. After discussion with the St. Paul

District, it was concluded that pools 11 through 26 would all fall -

.into the rural river classification. Thus, the appropriate per capita

rates were utilized for these pools.

Using the same primary market area already identified in "

* another part of this report and the distance matrix (distance between

origin and destination areas) from the gravity model, the population

for the three zones for 5 forecast years and each of the 28 pools were

calculated by computer techniques (see the following computer program).

The next step was to apply the appropriate activity per capita use

rates to each of the population zones for the 5 forecast years to

estimate total recration activity in the seven activities for the 28pools.

An internal computer subroutine provided for growth in the

activity participation rates for each of the forecast years. These 0

growth datc were taken directly from MRI's COIIPATRAX recreation par-

ticipation allocation model. The total activity days are each pool

were then converted to the number of visitor-days, using conversion

factors developed from the GREAT I data. Another computer calculation

p provided an estimate of visitation from beyond the 75 mile zone. This Sfactor was developed from the GREAT demand study. A final calculation

aggregated the visitation data into the 28 pools for the 5 forecast

years.

'4G-G-2

-.. ww- - - -S

The computer program, various summary tables, coefficientsand final outputs are located on the pages that follow.

G-34

-- ~~~ ~~~ .- •

".i2-1

[.G--

-V¢ * -- w w w -

TABLE G-1

CLASSIFICATION OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER POOLS0

FOR SIMILAR PROJE(.r ANALYSIS

Pool.2J Output

Pool Class Number0

USAF 1 1LSAF 1 2

1 1 32 1 43 3 54 2 65 3 75A 3 86 3 97 3 108 3 11

9 2 1210 3 1311 3 1412 3 15 413 3 1614 3 1715 3 1816 3 1917 3 2018 3 21

19 3 2220 3 2321 3 2422 3 2524 3 2625 3 2726 3 28

a/ Pool Class Code

River, Urban 1Lake 2

* .River, Rural 3

G- 4

KI

4...

COMPUTERIZED SIMILAR PROJECTS PROGRAM

7'

G-5

', - * .. o-,,7. ..

I cc-

*I I

S.-I I Ir0: 0 i r 6

CL=~ 0 4& Iz Ic c I- c m0

.0 *1 z u I N

; i

VV O 4 -; ;::T !;;:*-j 4-44- Z

U- C 1 -- tI N'X W- 4.-e.% 1.-

c4~ u .c c4~ c -QC C C CdC0. LL c0-C a: L4~C~ C 1 30 a Ru...L, 0- C. C.

LS r[ ' ~ o~or

G-6

WK2

4

c I

U I A

C IL-

e0 jC

a, -4 4

I z ': I 4

1-- - -74 t

CO z a a,m~ -* _j o. W 0.r 4:

r~ C -c 6o 4 1Za *:-cl. al w c L- cc c

w. I.lu-c v a;-Iu s w . . . c u j a0a c

I -I-) A *4 j 7 0 o iti 6 Ic

01 14 hi) Ir -

-- 1 -i 2 4Z .4 0.0E0 .

a- 11i0

11 U. 19- 1 ~~I if9. Oh IIG-7I

"IIL

10

3-

65'

4-

9L C 2

oak' G-8

I 0

CC

2 I

71 R

54 e24

Z '. 2* C 4

3 1 -9- -. ,40 n!44 ~ ~ 0 I. -z

0 ... C :c c .

£* w

cc w ai

* I - 9

u qerwa.. ua

G--

VI IPI AT I ON r)AT TA I N T,'IIIJ',A~NIS flF PfUSO'kiS

I AI)AMS~ If I'. 1e.~ 69. AP. 12 MONDI I IN.6 I0.. I6.0' I#.a

3 540054 ?bI!P.21 - --U.&-1 ~ 5. IA'4 H"OWN s 4.9 4.M q.?S HIIF Ail 1 17.4 144.? 3J,1 41.S 4.06 CALHOIN It 5.4 S -- '.4 -. .- *J..7 CARNLL II 9.4 1 .1 ?0°I P0.9 ??.n

' " CASSI I I A.s 1 .9 14.4 14.4 s. -- k CHRI TIAN I t 7 ... . -.. - 11... .. 3 ..

10 CLINiON It Il.? f - . 4 1 . A I I .- Qn.I I OF KA114 1 1 6').1 10.0i A3. 0 93.6 to'... 0

-12- FAYE ITE - 11 Z3.5 &1s~--13 F tiL. TON 11 42.. 4?.9 44.4 47.5 SI.T14 GRFIENE I. I1.. l'.0 1.1 16.0 1.n"'6- HANCAUr .41 ----- P1 a- 24..4.-. .,4..4 -- 22 .... 24."16 HENI)ERSON I I R.7 A.9 9.0 4.5 10.4.17 HFNY 17 ,7. n SQ.3 61.0 '.3. A 6A.?

-"IS. JEFFLk.0N _- 17 _+- ,. 3j.9 35.9- 7. --. 39. a,19 JERSEY it 19q pn? 0.R P1.9 P3.020 JO DAVIfSS Ir ?1.% 2?.3 ?3.? 74.0 29.I 1

---4- KNOA__ - .-1 .... -. 46.52- ... J - --- .. -

2? LA %AIL 17 107.s IIO.A Il6.n 171.1 IP.23 LFF I 34.6 39.0 41.4 45.1 49.I

-.- AJ I)UN9(3t5tN . I 1 ---- -A---1---40a---------A-a.5.---------6?0 '-'.A

2- MACOUPIN 17 46.0 4?.? 00.3 52.1 Cis.26 MADISON 17 251.1 PsA.3 265.3 715.7 ?93.127 MARION -] -1-1-.. ....... 4 i 2 4.5.j._.?A MARSHALL 1? 13.1 11.3 13.0 13.7 13.?iq MASON 1 iT.0 l,.8 I.7 P0.0 ??.Q -.40 MF NAI 'D A. . 1 .. .--- T- . . ..1-0 ii- I. R. _ 47| 'aIt

31 MrPCEH If 18.3 19.1 19.Q ?1.3 23.432 04ONNOE IT ?0.Q 21.3 ?1.4 23.9 25.?

,-..--4- 314ONXTiOMIFRX-- -------- A.---.-- --±4I..44 A 3, * 33=f -

34 MO(;iAN 17 34.4 3s.6 37.04 39.0 41.6is OGI. 1 17 43.4 4s.4 47.7 50.7 94.p "".;"'31 -_V O LPOIZA.-__ 1- I - ---. 2 A a I _ 2.2 C.. _ ,; Z

37 PFRNY If 19.6 19.5 20.1 P0.4 ?0.9*-38 PIKE If 10.1 10.0 10.1 A0. 2 0.2

39 PUITNAM . 17 f. 6. -n-.0n o ?_.240 RANDIOLPH 17 32.Q 33.' .14.0 36. 6 30.441 HOCK ISLAN I 1 'A.6 176.4 I3.4 192.3 ?fl'.3"42 ST CLL IM- 11 -. 2a&.2 & --3--.2a--_ .A I.-.._43 SAN('AMON If 170.1 118.9 IQ2.4 P01.9 P17.?44 SCHUYLFW I7 f.3 7.2 7.2 7.4 1.1_ 4 - SCOTT._. - 11 .6 .. . ... .5 - 5 .5 ...... _ . . .5 .6b4' STARK It 7..7 7, 3 7.447 STF PHENSON If 4R.7 47.9 44.A 09. S4. 04.'4... WARHN--- I ! -. . 27 ... -. '-,- .....---., ------. O-L .

49 WASHINGTON 11 15.1 Is.I I1I. 19.7 In" -50 WHITESIE 17 66. 69.m 71.6 FA.? A9. ...1 WINNEHAGO 17 243. -. ;%.0 . - 79.--_ 29_- _31.1 -5R ALLAMAKEE 1' 1,.7 16.3 A .0 17.2 I7..-53 I-4FNtON ', P.? ?3.0 74.n ?4.3 ?4.1SA4 -i'AC - I .. 43.6. - - - 1 , . . .t. ,I- - .-4&J.- ;1S5 HREMFW 14 2-.0 n7.3 8.3 ?9.$1 ?Q.-.56 B3UCHANAN 14 PP.q 73.. P, 26.0 pf,, A57 ;EDAR- - . . ..-- -L f . . . 1, h.0 I". IaSO CHICKASAW 19 10.0 I6.1 1'. 17.11 I..1%9 CLAYTON 39 ?. n ,'1. 7 ?4,;?60 CLINTON 1'4 9.Q 4,'.3 4.'.. 3 .

G* -

" ;.-: .-,---- '- - " '_

A?' IFLAWAI~f I. .0,.32' Y I126.A UFS 141INF% 143 4,.A 44.-1 4~. 44.9 ,*644 D1U)IIF IV 904 1 1u. 14 1 A I3? 33*-

6,FA TIF ?7- p -- -, ?" -I

AA IA3 HF. N.? 36*f 7. 364

#I0 HOW ARD 1) 19 P .3 1I 11.4 1

h49 JIA CK45 SON 1 P1.0 pp 7~ P40 PS.* 7%3-

71 JOHINSON 1'q #1(.7 R4.7 ssa.. 92. p~

y?,P JONE%' Iv.- ---- - 4.........-..- p I-3

r-I- -- p tvA--- --pp.3-7 3 KFOKU.LK 7- 31 3.3.7 13. 1.5 974 1FF 1 u9 q3.7 39. 9. 19.4

76 L11119 1'4 11. ]1.? 1 1.4 11.5 11.6I 7 mISC AT INF - 41.P 4.5r 47.9 1.~51#4 SCOT IT lo 1443'.Q - - - .---t -- ?. ----- 31-- -

P) VAN MISISFN 1., 7.7 7.4 7. 3 7.1 7.n540 WAPVLL() 194 17.Q 36615.7 ."9.1 14.Ml.543 WACHINGTON 31J --- 140 15* 3.*- .-- ~.42 WINNES4IF4 39 P~s n0. 20 ?o0.I9

43 ANA el 7fl51.3 ?7. sS. 13. 3 (;I o 01,.9444 sAFTow - P1 - -- 3.4- ---- 14,2 .-.-. A)-. .*..549 CARIVERl 1? 34.4 394(1.1 43.54 46.9

846 CH194655 ? ?.3.9 ?A. 1 14.n 19.44.Of? I)AOT A 21 IR4.1 - ---- p44. 3-.--.3.---74.-----93-AM5 [SnnGF 2? 13.? 3 3.4 13.6 33.6 1 3.4M49 F ILt Mow 2? ;,1. 1 P0.9 70.7 20.2 1 9.c90 STOOnH(#F-- -2 F - -4v_-____. -fr

91 HENNEPIN 2? 9543.4 1005.? In3. 109. 101i.9? HOOSTON e' y5. 351.4 354.5 19. 19.

93 3qA"TI 2? --- Pit? -- - Pg-. . --- - - -P&----- -3. - .-IT4

.-.44 IF SUESIR ?r 77.q 73.4 74.4 P4 .9 ?91.195 MC 1103) 2 r 31.4 34.1 10;. A 39.5 47.196 0MEEN3 - - -- 2? - 49.~ ~ 9-4 -1.491 M0k#FH 21 44.1 44.9 4%4.0 44.5 43.349 OnLSTED 27 97.54 309s.9 114.1 121.5 327.49q4 RAWSIy p?. .4

5 49j a;,-94

100 HICF 4?1 44. 46.4 47.6, 49.0 50.7101 Sr011 ?1 39.1 43.0 47.54 S7.5 S6.4I--l7--S44W-NURNF -- 21- ---- PQ-26~ .--4S-----------34 .4 -. ---- 49-4- ---- 443--10 3 S!.4LFY P7 1 6. 1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.1104 ST~FLF 2r 7q.0 30.3 31.7 31.54 M.9

- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 . 04R454&----P----4433?3. -- 4AL49 f-A -4---106 WASHING5TO3N 21 10.3.7 113.4 1254.1 142.1 154.43531 WINONA '71 4A.5445. 44.9 44.6 17f. IIw8- WIl I - - ?I--- -- 63, ~.A ---- .- A.rl- ------ 4.3 - 14-109 AnAIR ?4 26.1 PA .9 3 0.0) 32.? 34 . r110 Al 1OIA IN ?y ?,Q PA.? o P6 .5 A2?.1IlitI H53flNF -24 - .-. s, -tAQ-,Q -

112 CALLAWSAY 29 P"4.4 7Q.9 31.4 33.0 34.?333 CLARK e 7.54 i.. 7.4 7.P 7.n

I115 GASCONAOE 29 33.6 34. 3).? 36.9 35A.3116 JFFERSON i'9 134.9 396. 35. 0 704.3 ?37.331 K NS3A 24 .-- %,-p-- A4. . .- -4- .- 41354 IFellS 29 10.4 30.0 9.? 9.4 9.039 LINCOLN 49 2 24.0 ?ft.4 ?9.4 3.40

32 1,0 04AC*------ -P 29 - 1.-----A4-- 3-4-- ---- 44-4 IA.?

121 "A4451N 29 1. 77.. P7.4 37.7 ??.3122 MONFOOV P4 30.,; 13. 3.0 3253.?

103 MONTGOMNERY . . . Ig.A 1403.~ o.,3.124 PIKE4 ?4 1m23. 3. 5.5 (I ~129 PALLS io9 1~. 35.13.'3.4 3*326 4ANI5O1PH ~"a P9.A 77.? 1?.3 .14. 7

G- 12

IMP~

or4 n i Er NN 4 M M M *U rE M

Oat£m G' ztA .0 -V 4. 1- -. e NE M.f f

.a -q tr a~ *r NE l fM r' 4 a C a.. L

~J~ P~~ -on .0 ci 4 ft rCf~C M P .

. . .. .. m L cM f - N m 44 c PI ODZN

41i

a,-- L'C~ ~ .-- 4 C -. 4- c

Nt Nl N...0 .0 top o oo i *0 wu 0in

M A=Iim m v IwIm

3.- 13q2 lUid1

.

*%. *4 N .. .tC' tSC ? f .. t 4 C 4*

* .•..- . r.N

-}d - t N N . N N

*Si A 0 .}l A

- N &A- C CC C .. P A ,one- . '... t t ? N T A

N ..... . d-.*e *- e t c r ?-A I'

- N -4, AN, 9 "N

CCA'A CCCC A'~ C CCC ~ CSC ~ At-(

- - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -NN

rS A t A C C Js f C dS N *-.•o -S L,@~A~.C44""SAe * C~t N ' -

-- - - - - - - - d - - - - - - - - - -

-. ,. . , A . , A ' d G - C O C C * S N C - ,5 0 ,4.' C A-N *

-)- - ....

I,-

,.° .4

•~ - .i.

.... . ... " .... i.. -c 4-

CCC... . N...--...... . ... .... .NZNAi

- N 44.4 4-N--o,

C-.CC- NC QN.. .. ,

CZ4CCC CC~tC .C4.C4 .@ A...G'4N

*CG-15O - ~ d f~~t -

-- -N A J"-

r- - .S :' - - C N " : :-

. . . - - C". ."" , " , 0 " .5'4 C "C - " '

) • . • . . - ._ . . • , . •3* N ~ 4 t r C t * - r s

. %.- N A "-,-.CoO C

N 0t.,t.-A, 400 d"N.t""

ow mNt m A~ .44 .'

Mr4

4 4 4m 94 M ~ * 4 mM 4

m 4p zV, L C m44 M 0.-

-r~O P. 0 N x 40dc 0 mC m ~ 'N CM NN at

C .NMMN .. 01N MN~fN M

-a N U4y C 44 FOU N N= I Ct U & N~ . a N! en

fv rM en' -S M M NM 00 1 .. en9 In1 fn

c~N M M 999 , c N NM ( -C .- fN NII. .

Cm fm N A.- N M9N -. rN.- .- N~N fu9..: tQ

1t. M4j U' C0

N~~ aC C M~ a,. N ,d F A

0,( C 'tC. 01 04 PL 4 a . m

C N N'- -M-

MC .c o' c~ w 4, wm xC *NCN-M't,M .-. e .C-~.P 4, M Lr M ' 4

z z NN .4N.0 m9. MN .-r - T .N CC cf

WC

~~~~4.N - -rNt r

4 c c CN'. P.(-COCM+CNCji4 C

Lr~. -W-

N~ ~ ~ ~- m c km-4'

aC W zC,- C mr -

4 4rL

tr ~ ~ ~ ~ G M6LP-N

T . % X N - - - -0

ALLOCATED POPULATION BY POOL, ZONE AND YEAR

ZONE MILES

1 0-252 26-503 51-75

YEAR

1 19802 19853 19904 19955 2000

G- 17

* 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0

x' c r. f- Y, 4 rv 4 m 4 4Z r.- 0 -, m K '

)-4'

- ('4

M CI

. - 7 It-.

C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2..

. a. C- .. a. x* C . x

G4, -,.= .,,- =,=. .=(,= '" ,% t k k

I-- .

Li

,G-18 " - -

S.°° 4".9%. "° ' " " . '

* a S S 0 0 0 0 0* S 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

~ ~, ~ ~ CS Z -4 \ - PI- '" 4 M N- -4 '~'

Sr rfCc -cI

LUJ

CC

o S S 0 0 ~ S S S 0 S S 0 0 0 0 S S a e a 0 S

Z - t I r- - X -N 31 'rZ

t - )

CLa .0 mc Lmn c .U 3 X X~ a. T \ X T'. T

G-19

LLa

4V (7, a' X Z 4 X~f d C a

-" -t

r-Nr -f-(10 ' cC 7 N V

fl- -- I

41

G-2

JC. V, I- N -r x N D 3 -y

* 0 0 S 0 Lr do PO 66 0 S6 4 0@ z .0 f0 0 4 t:0

c~~'rr-?~-4 f-4-- C cc i''L~~

-41

It -:JN-aX =-,X'

r I- CC 07 S 1 0 -4 N 0 0) 0C 0- CC a' 0 0j t n C 0 S

G12

N 7- 3% n% - r J c 4 c -'C% 0N C- C00( N '4 In

r ~ ~ ~ (f 4r N- T - rk-C-NCC -C'.z Lr I r

* -0 a 0 S 0 *0 0 * S * S 0 0 *

~C 'a X \ Mj M -N . - , r. A, C~ - - v

N. 4cX X C(. ,X -I

* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 s e e 0 0 0 0 s0 e 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

p T 1 -- ell ' I$ p x

41

G-2

. ~.....

-- 4

L

04

RECREATION ACTIVITY* Pools By Activity By Year

*0

'I.'I

0

G-23

*1

............................

................. '. . .. - .

. . . . . ..

RECREATION ACTIVITY BASE PARTICIPATION RATES

19750

Water Sight-

River, Urban Picnic Camp Swim Skiing Boating seeing Fishing -

Zone

1 0.008 0.005 0.001 0.007 0.058 0.003 0.016

11I 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.030 0.051 0.012

Lake

Zone 2

1 0.897 1.008 1.266 2.833 7.193 1.663 4.525

1I 0.060 0.245 0.114 0.130 0.192 0.077 0.323

111 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.008 0.141 0.035 0.125

River,. Aural

Zone

1 0.200 0.189 0.166 0.298 1.109 0.413 1.079

1I 0.047 0.060 0.044 0.094 0.271 0.097 0.303

111 0.027 0.022 0.024 0.032 0.107 0.046 0.127

Source: GREAT Recreation Demand Analysis (June 1976).

G-2 4

4 . . . .. . . . - . . .

7 cc o, 0. L

P-~ m N V% w* -r Ic a Lr

fu It, f .. . . . .F C

N M (. C ' U ' 2N f a, 0 10 -1 . C "I I'-- ~

I 4 .1. I .. le, M M at 4r - C,'C N I

c; .* 6 %c lv *

A, I rm-c

en N U 4 N

4x NN. N 7

aat

~~~r 0;U ~ C .- c ~ -*

c IA N'n IAn F *I*ct N 1 M N 4 * C4,

0 0 i 0 0

- L I 6 M 0 N. a. a6 M' IL1

& ~ a'. C . & V0

-~ - -- I -. - -~i - -- -

a IN , 4! M 4 - 4 JA P It C CN -

4 4 0 ; fn 0 4D P) F. N 0 A

m 0 c c N 40 OD 4 W c a 4 It 4 -fN 1 N ~ -~t0 0 - N It N t I 4. I

N, , 4 - n u 4 -) It Nc cc u~ N

10 4 4 0 0 fn 0 .f.) 4 4v C N C

t-~~ 4

It In P fn 4 4

N I

z Nr 'r w ft MN N a t N

cc N *N .t

11 M ~ it I

m . V- 4 z I

-J N x 4 xN 0 P

-j Io 0M0 NE 0 0 0t c ,

0 0

9I 3. 0, m

9- I C ~ ~ r~. 4? E~G-26 0

4j I *IS

OJ .0 rl P N P f ; 0 N N U

P . o n c 9 1 1 - c . -1 14 I A

iftp - vf N c if i . . 9

Mf TO 1. -1 TA ON 'D MA I I C!if

ON CD t- (n ccaP- n P

IP ei N ir N r 0 .0 -

-C 'r- FN IA 0 0 4 M c ,l~ T ?- It .0 IA N

41N~~C le 'tN . le i 0

Ij N

01 * 0 .0 'A.~A. fflA.

CLI

m 2. z 9 . 0. 0. C' L C'M 0. N . CL &L' CL &

G-27U'~ ~

* . . . . .r nN P M - M. -c 9 a 0~ c;0' I

w* Ar fc *0 U' 0' a 0' P0 "r' 0

a. -- m- Nf cJI z -

:j cu 4* Cf 0AN N - - ' 0 0 N A 7 . J

10 N P f - 4N0' I7,CA

le fw w m 0 NrM r ~ N cc U N 7

L"~4L MuI'0 M. 0u IC P-v .

-t Lt -4 L

I ~ .4 It. M N C, r

:c " 4 N4D -'

0, Cu 4 LA A' -0'

Lr on 0 ~ 0m A. A!n 1 C

rI NW II I

0- CL (- 4 4 *. m . a .1 . M &m m 2

- ~ IA C~ C~' ~ C C G-28.

w .. f vMF M.I

o~4 f( j lu ' ' 0 N £ rc.0 .e0 -. I, I- C '

CD 4D P . -D C, Ct a0 C f~N - ' 0 at A. C 'in' 'D In - O z U p , 41 0 4y 0. cc af

4 ) I 4 N l .0 N 4 0 fn f- F 0 d' t 't c

-P w

; ) P- 1 N 1 40 ' a 0 c a, Nm 4 C C 7

N l N l N In ID - -'o N 0 C T LC t

NY 10 00 0v 4t a - C CN C O' N - '3

w -1 , fn - , N I V ON Al T0 c1 Nr -

'C Cm 1 4 M 0 0' OD c N 1' *- 4ft f 4y M' 4 in 0y A.9~' ~4 1 N 4

C0 0 P. f.0 cl en C 4 1* 0.) Ml N .4 't

N r,4 J 'n Ic In w OD I O1 . N C

m m~ 4r, 4 c f C c a' CC- .NA.Ca C: 0r 0. ~ O C'

. C- "

CL MI. I : w M~ c .r .1 4 *

f, 4 N U', ut C C

fn i , 0I

w cc

CL N. U'. 06 C r . C t' . (L a

-G-29

BY ACTIVITIES BY YEAR

G- 30

ACTIVITY GROWTH RATES

Recreation Years

-Activity 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Picnicking 1.00 1.15 1.30 1.45 1.60

Camping 1.00 1.30 1.60 1.90 2.20

Swimming 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00

Water Skiing 1.00 1.45 1.90 2.35 2.80

Boating 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00.

Sightseeing 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

Fishing 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

source: MRI COMPATRAX recreation participation/allocation model.

G- 31

4 P u P- p~ 90 c y C, 4 -0 IA N C I~ M ,N v f . . .In u P. a M . C

in & u l N -In .c P- 0 N , fn IV m

cm 11 0. -- A I 0, " , A. %~ a"l a . ". ~It 4 N M . . .i It .0 - It C N I . N CE.I

0. U 0 ON c m 0. N u c 4 C 4.0 at N M a0 cc N 0 C, &0 all N 0 4 0 . C C 0 4 a

P-~~ UA.P I

fz .4 0. A N C; N 1;1 . 0 C a C 0. P t 'r NNr In In - m * . U 0 A . 0 N mt r1 L

-f 1. .0 C U CY-Na ~ 4- - C I N a; P7 N & 4 l 1 . I .

-~~~O - 1- N N 4 4 N - a

cc a N N. ft at. 4 .4 Ic N

N I 4 r 11 at A -C t a.cc IA LI . Cr1

;t I : t N;Lf N 'A r C r. C C+ a 0 C N 4 l

I; u 101

m It, m t 4 ~ 0.Lc t C

-l O N N N z\

0. 9 C L L L 9L I0 . 0. a,0 C . a CL a . 31 0

G- 32

RL r c 0 10 0N to 1; N .D 0, M ~ CI i

100,~ 'N f

Nu a 6 4 ou fu # in 0 LW 'N 4 0* P,-N N - 0 4 W

N ~ CP - ND

N~~~1 C, 0 f 0 I ~ I' N I

K 4p

CY -0 4k 6M P1 N 6 N .0 6 . - N 0

cc a. - . -

PNCU N N £ f%) 0 U) N

X ~ ~ a Z6 reji I' N6 N 6

9L M, eft in 0 , * . * *

N % N M~ ' I

'4~X 4 P

a6 06 9 6C LC 0 L i .a 1 I 6 3

G-33,

t- V"~. * 4 * * c -v .- - M2u 0 0 F

Pb N N 4 an Ul~- 1 - £ Na

.0 Nw 4 6 11 a -4 0 AJ OD Z 4 a 4 a O'0 w 4a .n * p . .

Nn V1 91 1 .0 0 40 4 4l M 1 i

OD - - N -n v OD

m I, NO . * .

C 4 N 0 It' Cr Nx ' 0 - 0 0 a' N O

0'r N1 -D 'C a' C I b '

I~ ~ ~ . .I. . C

m cc c n , *" 0r

% - Lt In rnlt -l OD C 40 a t . N0.cM ba'

z IAZN rm 4 fu c 0 N 't -

0' 4 LC Ii

CL. IL IL 0I. C L L 0 Lm C

CL IN IL U

G-34

171A

a, 'D MD In .0 %C d 0 .0 f I n aN 0 4 6 1 ~

119 11 0 in 0 0 z c0N N C 19 a . NN ~ ~ ~ lp r.9 I N 0n 0- . - 4 £9 a 1 .9 19 C N

* o.9 1 N N V P. 9 fn a u -C C C

10 Cr Up It - I- 'o - c ccf .1 0 N

N 4w lp -C r N

C C to ) 4 't o . 0 N, r - 10NN 0 . 4 c . 1 .0 CC I I OD -

C m om -lo f'C 1, z 00 . I' N4 D ew49 U' 0

NI c 'o s 4 r) c1 f t N a - M. 4

x f. -n w - m CC 41 .

co CL, t- -c cc t 1 1r0 .

i IC

CL k

'N0 i -g eU' n- I 9. 9* 'C) 0 0' L, .0;2 c.. . .~ 0 04 C0 ~ ~~~ L CL 3 , L I , C C , L2. 1 2

~ J9 ~G-'5

100

U~~~~ 4 44N 4 N - 4 a C cc m

fn e 4n C a - 4 4 N 4 - S Cr a

I -

Cr C, le P - - CNrNC~~~ ~ I 4 Op ~ C N - 4

C to' - 4 a , c 0 c a a a 4r LC a 4

N t P cc a If U P N w cr tr 4N 4 5 C 4 Z l aa P . ' U

C f N IM, fu Pa Ma V - 4 m .aC -4 ac 3c xfn fu P. .i

Pa C U' - N -C 4 T

2 II F- L CP N N

U' 0m C L . Do a a a . L a- a, 0. 06 CL m m a

II G-36

7% 7 N :w 0

CONVERSION TO VISITOR DAYS

Conversion Factor* (Actual Days to Visitor Days)

River, Urban 0.963

Lake 0.494

River, Rural 0.58 1

7-T-

G-37

.1 W

?-N ir- A UA ir . ift I.tn. . o* W. . ..

*~~t N- P-.t a. irM 4M -C a" CMMM ~ ~ ~ I" " ;:C .0 tnA rr * er i.

V%, IC C W- IL 0YjrW4 a - @ 1 N t

Nl .cc n1 0f t In IM NU *1r a irl M-. 11~ fu .AD

N"Mr . x U .C W M0. F* '0 %a 0 fn- DWDM

L M p Mi 64 (IW i&

A, M'0 -N4

1 MO'-tn47 Ni m 0 tn 0 D4 Initn cUrt T- MP.- cW X -M Lm f a

it --. I I N N N i l

ir 4p--4---e,-M wE V%~, e. - -t

I C I

Ic in'~~t' M (w

*r m N .0 0 . Jj a,

-m r gJ tM6&t WD 0 0P-0 E @ N 0 1. l

0 , ,0C 00 co0 00 00oco cc 0

G- 38

-P7 A w *- w w w *-

77

At 4D .4a-Ct n 0 66 f" a , Cl ~ a6 p a4mat.O~~04 1-, OD. O 0 0~ M N 0

.. 4N 40, ~ U 0 £ 4 - . 0'- .V 40 6 fn

MMz 1;1 1M 14 P Zc N'C c c. oa ; en MM 0

4 w ' OUn 40 MI' IPn- 4 liF nM a M

a,* J t . c* ." n CD.- _"_

04, T AC -o 4 0 N M -0 n;; @5 61 lM4 An -r lIP

4.C7 4 1: .7 9 1 1O 4? a, C - :;N C- 0 014

wt N.p~ M'C aC 4N4 NN MN -taL) L 1 0l

0'4 4M ECNL, M~ Mr lt'4. sliP r"N N

NP- N .C4C-t. V,0 IlO NO 0m .09 0 ~~~~~~c s4

- .. 0r~OM ' N 0~' 0 C

tr '(Im.0Ur' - -1.m4i £ . NM lo0 c,... .. ~ 44 -NM4 '4 NN MN, N

C 4Z 1-'~%P 41 -1 r 1M -1 1 j - j-i N0 0 0 0

U, 00 00-, 9L A. MN CLO ,O .C L3 La,49 L0 LI ,I LC

1M106.. N tI Z 1~ MMlI C w4..0

4;P 4- ow-m C.l £0 INEO N C P 0a

M MO 4 4

*-£ M & O 0 .0 u10 inN N p .0- N, 1 u CI ICM & 0 r NN 0*D W.W CC .U 0CM 90 0 41 6C

C, 11- N N NU, P4 C 011 EM11 O

0 It, c atr O (pw MW fm. Ig'.CtN fu Mt

knO M - 4 P .C±0e;: NV,'D CM ; x* .0 1

e. EN AP On CDZ h

.0 CA c Il I 4

w1-ItOiN C%. N (L Nt' M' On

0N -D LN. X. ~1.C C =t *0..N NO ONCGD 'Ic a a f. N - - N 0 at. 440 , - %0

m M4'9 C t' 4 ~ U . 00 ir ' 4

Nf&I 4 Ma ftt aN' &

I0 "

G-4

(P0 *f. Pc %%- .0:0 cm .aUt Lf e~

10 4 0 P f0~ -1-41 Ifn ON . IP04 0

kn C 0 C !1.0 p ON 1 DC O 0 IN 4-04 M

-- . tP-L . O P N-f 7. o L o aOMN Nr N &I4 v a- m aZA0 ,Icc

0 CCre a, =1N O~N

tr Lr W W0

4 00

Ir,

CN E

C0L-N .

m N, NN-.

0-

N r U m0C N .0 Ne -Zr c m0 N.

00 o co 00 CCCCCC 0 -.gL CL ~oC C %& C. al L. CL ILa CC L .C

G-4 1

M VII T! ,0 M t )uloi a b pIV

p- M4 CM 0n a0 q- PI.N 04, 00F wW I 0 . N lP- ~ ~ N NM *N 01o - fn In n

ODM 4 4N N mO 06l m m w II cl' 40 'D V

-W EC. 'l aE a, I0 le~ 0U NE cNCDoP-4~ ~~~~~ in! Owl - U - U. C.

SMtj 4 UN CN fn- f). m .. ?.. pnli N0f

(L O-E P. 04CM C P.- 4 M .

&A NN A a0 4.N N 7 Z 4 inI nM m- -- V

E&1~CP a~ mM0 @ C E N0 N

C;E ipNz I0 x zit e- NN c CL

£ --.

0: E ~ C -~~0~~ p..- N NO?1 ' 1I

4 Ir ! 4 wI

4& 00 Ia

0 W0000C0 0 0 00 0,- ',0 02 0 Ct

u ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~00 t.0 C0. L0 L0 .C L LI .C LC ,9

G-4 2

.- w~J~3~ w -*W w w w 'w w * .* . .

N Ao .~- .

EXPANSION OF VISITOR DAYS FOR PERSONS COMING

FROM BEYOND 75 MILES

Expansion Factor

(Factor Times Visitor Days)

River, Urban 1.166

Lake 1.360

River, Rural 1.322

41 G- 43

-2r.w'wW . V V W W W - -

. .-7 7,7 77 * 7

p0 cu w NP0 N 0 .N N 4 N P

N -y du ran -z J P 7 ~ N

.0 a ~ fn 4 0 -W a0 OD CC- .0 13, N n 't al..

M 4

wJ - W LP7 cc a, c N fn'.0 .00n .0 P7 P7>- a' cr*m 31

-D -A - C; - - - - C; P7 -

cc o0 'C. & 0 0 M 0D N f0 4l p- fl 70 7 C

N~~~4 1C- 4 It 4 0 N W Ln N7 ffj N 4 P,' .p S S

4 . Nu -N - . Cc J. . N

a I -

m en 0K V. -c r uI i N N N D S O

.CrP N 00 M in Cc m z x '

c;~~~" N 4Pccc P7 &

r~ 01 2 c

G-4

~.0 0 a 0 0

NJ N

In a'10U' s P- r- a fu 0-N U -tA- a Cc P. . ru - v, 'c m m - m 4 - -it

4 1 ' U' a' -r 1) . %D 1) I 4 & w' c 1, C, 0r ' C r

4y , go tr c n 4t I ' n - N N a * NC 0

N -- - - D 47,4 4 -

l ' 0. .0 M 4 in P: ' ' 0 4 N 0 4

4 p - NC x 'C c 0 l~a

u-, &- 0' M - 41

cuI- N fu

£~~ ~ 'C .j U' A. 1' 0 ' ' 0 4 UP A4z - T 1z - V - N N in A r-

N~m N M 0 C '

#c AN 4 4 N It

0~ tun ,C N 'i < u) 0' AnN C OD 0' C' C .A. ,

3. CL 9Lm a C L a . (L ( L a L M m I

* 4~* N L 0'IN41U' 0' ~ a' G-45

In ID I 0nf 1a - NI

6 M 'D 6~ - N61'C

4r A CPI 4 14 4 N- P. N ' 0

g c e , N 10 M 0 IC N 4 r 4 '

ou" a' 4 ep 4 6 4 a' -, c fn N

t - -u N

c' N N 7 c 4c No M ' N 4

-n 'D p4. 41 ND 0 N J N

44 4

cc CP .7 N --

ft

w i a V6 t 0 N 7 N - -ft .k N. rp f" m . r L

iI-Ic P. 0 m in 4P N m L' 4'

4G-4

4d N X0 IN U4 .05 - -- 40 xN ~ N,0 .

-1 IOU 11 0, 44, 10 16~ 11 10 41 0.69 , .0 a c

ft -o of -a; ~ -

w c v~ - I. IF ir 1! 0 .0 N 0 t 0

0M lp It or cc .0 0 C ' r W M C- 'D 4D EW P. wm T

in 4 ODC 0; 01 OJ G0 W I m m N rw 4 -m0 a, f at r, T at., U0 .0 mu, c r .

fu~~ ~ ~ 11 NL% c Y e n p- N N

Nr Nf M l N 41 f . ~ C. cc ; N N It

Cc5 C ~ 0 N ~ - 2* 1 6 -

I. ~ ~ ~ r a. a6N!* 0

4r It

-c c I.n, a

. W

It. NL4 ir A. fn . ,

1c,1

m It C

C 0 000' 0 0' CL a. CC a. CL a.

* .d to G-47.

-~~t CID-- -. -

lu,~ V a

I~~~~~ P- 0 ID-P n , D t

in -.0 N

SI %C 0 . P- - U 10 4 , Co

.... -4 ID ew 4 0 00

.* % . U

Lf~~~~ ~ ~ ~ 2 L-, l ~ , M.c L

4 N .a u cc - C ~ P. .- .

4z ' Z 0' S';

c

P. I . . 4 c-C I I

F* -C Lo 4d a x c'I Lr 4r 4.a 0 n

Cr 0: no LA I- - 4 ~ O C ~ - r cc 1: I 4 * .. .. --

1 41 P.. j.. -. a -i -i -i

a 4! c. 0. 0 atU 0 P a0 c a c c

CL4 IL 0.~ CL CL m1 a m IL ~

IW -W -w~

. . . .. . .. a .. .. a .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. . a.. . . ..

TOTAL VISITATION TO CORPS PROJECTS

BY POOL, BY YEAR

14

G-49

1 4

4, .

W ttj & 1it r - £ N. C

- 'C ,t '

c I cI c -i

'*1 I " , . .CD a 3 I~ + rI Pc0 c0 - 4z ." a r:

c . t' ' 70 c .t .4

cc T- ci I I I

Im - I nI

-0' - £' 0 01 C N cCL E~ WI M C & ' ( 4 m t CL 9 t I4' CL I C-r. I!i m t 3. 0, I . ( 4

G-50N

-A 4

-- A.y

Al~ok o.

I~6!4;

N44

JR,

44 t

. ... . ... .4

Documents

D-A128 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE … · D-A128 879 METHODOLOGY AND FORECASTS OF RECREATION USE AND SMALL YRA CRAFT LOCKAGES ON T..(U) MIDWEST RESEARCH INST KANSAS