Cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean:

the MEDEX project

A. Jansa

Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain

jansa@inm.es

Heavy rain, strong wind, ... and other high impact weather events in the Mediterranean are frequently associated

to cyclones

To improve the knowledge and the forecasting of theCyclones that produce High Impact Weather in theMediterranean is the objective of MEDEX

As far a relationship between cyclones and high impactweather does exist, the MEDEX objective is also to improve the forecasting of H.I.W., e. g., of heavy rain and flooding, the most important H.I.W. in the Mediterranean

,,

In this presentation:•A few examples of cyclone-high impact weather interaction will be shown•Also some results from a climatological/systematic study of this interaction•Finally, the main keys of the project MEDEX will be anounced

Example (A): Montserrat flood:200 mm in 3 hrs

5 people died500 people displaced

Historical and material damage

Type (A): the cyclone organises the inflow of wet and warm Mediterranean air

loop loop

Example (B): Sardinian cyclone:>100 mm in 3 hrs

118 km/h wind gust9 m highest waves

Type (B): deep cyclone and hazardous weather are two aspects of the same evolution

loop

Another Case

© ESA, 1997

Example (C): Quasi-tropical cyclone:115 km/h wind gust

27 mm/ 1 h

Type (C): cyclone driven by latent heat release (as a result of previous heavy rain)

•a cyclone within 600 km in >90% of cases of heavy rain•in most of the cases the cyclone well located to organise the wet inflow

Climatological/systematic study: over 700 cases of heavy rain, e.g., 60 mm/24 h; looking for a close simultaneous cyclone:

MEDEX:

General objective: Going to better understanding and improved forecast of Mediterranean severe storms, through better understanding and improved forecast of cyclones that produce severe storms (high impact weather)

As a summary: A development path ------>>>>>>>>>

1.Types of situation2. Systematic study

3.Numerical experimentsconcerning factors

4. Determination ofsensitive areas

5. Targeted observations

Reanalysis

6. Observing SystemsSimulations Experiments

7. Recommendationsabout O.S. and modelling

8. Conceptual modelsfor forecasters

9. Improved forecastsand social benefit

In general, for any kind of situation, the EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were arethe most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:

We need to know sensitive areas for specific cases:An hypothesis about sensitive areas and targeted observationsfor heavy rain in Valencia:

Heavy rain site

Sensitive areaH+12/H+24low level

Sensitive areaH+36/H+72high level

More information in: http://www.inm.es/MEDEX

MEDEX is an official project of WMO ...(Resolution of 12 Oct. 2000)

G AWG lobal Atm ospheric W atch

TMR PTropica l Meteoro logy

R esearch P rogram m e

PC C W MRPhysics and C hem istry of C louds

and W eather ModificationR esearch P rogram m e

MAP In-F light Ic ing InternationalT ropical CycloneLandfall Project

TH O R PEX M EDEX

W W RPW orld W eather

Research Program m e

AREPAtm ospheric Research and Environm ent P rogram m e

W M Om ain program m es

... and has the support of more than 20 institutions,most of them in the Mediterranean countries.

But it is not a financed project.