Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
CVT Careers: Global Security Systems Analyst
Dr. Meghan McGarryLawrence Livermore National Lab
CVT Workshop10/30/2018- 11/1/2018
This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
2017 – Staff, LLNL Global Security Division
2013 PhD Experimental PhysicsUniversity of Wisconsin
2015 CVT Research Scientist,University of Wisconsin
2014 CVT Postdoctoral ResearcherUniversity of Wisconsin Nuclear Engineering
2015 – Nagasaki, Japan Young Professionals DelegationPugwash International Conference on Science and World Affairs
Meghan B McGarry
Career Path: Plasma Physics to Global Security
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
• What is a Systems Analyst?
• What kind of research do I do?
• How CVT prepared me for a career at LLNL
3
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
4
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
What do National Labs Do Beyond Nuclear Weapons?
• Weapons of mass destruction– nonproliferation, detection, disaster response planning
• Counter-smuggling – rad/nuc, human trafficking
• Critical infrastructure resilience – natural hazards, intelligent adversary attacks
• Energy security – renewables, grid stability, water-energy nexus
High performance computing, mod/sim, laboratory R&D
5
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
• What is a Systems Analyst?
6
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
• Understanding interactions of components in complex systems
• Develop complex models under uncertainty (e.g. limited information)
• Quantify and communicate impact, assess risk
What is Systems Analysis?
7
Interdisciplinary, big picture, applies to real-world problems
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
• What is a Systems Analyst?
• What kind of research did I do with CVT?
8
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
CVT: Systems Level Modeling of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle using yclus
• Subject Matter Expertise– Enrichment physics– Computational skills
• Systems Analysis Skills– How to break down big problems?– How to quantify inherently
qualitative problems?
9
Work funded by CVT, included with permission of UW Prof. Paul Wilson
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
CVT Support Built Expertise• Potential pathways for Iran to produce highly enriched uranium
under the JCPOA
10
• Signatures of misuse in the nuclear fuel cycle
• Use of historical data to model the risk of future state-level nuclear weapon development
Work funded by CVT, included with permission of UW Prof. Paul Wilson
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
• What is a Systems Analyst?
• What kind of research do I do at LLNL?
11
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
LLNL: Environmental Swipe SamplingHow can we use statistical methods to improve outlier detection in environmental swipe sampling of enrichment facilities?
Requires synthetic data to test statistical methods so we know how well they detect outliers
• Model a “canonical” gas centrifuge enrichment facility• Model the environmental swipe sampling process• Test statistical analysis techniques on the “ground truth” of the
model data
12
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Designing a Model:Systems Analysis & Subject Matter Expertise
13
What are the isotopics?
Where do the particles come from?
How are the particles measured?
What is the measurement uncertainty?
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Synthetic “Ground Truth” Tests Statistical Methods
14
Hypothetical Facility Operational History Synthetic Environmental Sampling Data
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
LLNL: Critical Infrastructure Resilience
How can we quantify the risk of cyber attacks to the powergrid?
15
• Actions of intelligent adversaries are not probabilistic in nature
• Historical precedent is not representative of future likelihood
Cyber
Kinetic
Hurricane
Wildlife
Tornado
Earthquake
Cons
eque
nce
Likelihood
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Systems Analysis: Risk Assessment
16
What is the difficulty of a cyber attack?
• Malware development• Overcoming security protections• Detection avoidance• Windows of opportunity
Define Risk from the Consequence and the Difficulty of an attack
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
Overview
• Global security research at the national labs
• What is a Systems Analyst?
• What kind of research do I do at LLNL?
• How CVT prepared me for a career at LLNL
17
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
CVT Developed Systems Analysis and Subject Matter Expertise
Subject Matter Expertise: computational skills (C++, software development), enrichment physics, nuclear fuel cycle physics
18
Systems Analysis Skillsquantifying complex phenomena, working across disciplines, risk analysis
Work funded by CVT, included with permission of UW Prof. Paul Wilson
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
CVT Prepared me to work on a Diverse Set of Problems
• Working in Global Security is interdisciplinary, dynamic, engaging
• Learn new topics quickly, scientific project management, communicate impact
• Lab engagement includes: DOE, DHS, IAEA, private industry, state government, universities, public utilities
19
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-760391
The Consortium for Verification Technology (CVT) would like to thank the NNSA and DOE for the continued support of these research activities.
This work was funded by the Consortium for Verification Technology under Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration award number DE-NA0002534.This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC
Acknowledgements
LLNL-SR-XXXXXXXThis work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC
