7
Electronic Equipment OEM Composite vs. Custer Global Equipment Model Quarterly Revenue Growth 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 -10.0 -20.0 % Growth (quarter vs same quarter in prior year) 70 Company Elec Equip Composite CCG World El Eq Model 20100712 Composite of 70 Electronic Equipment Suppliers; Custer Consulting Group World Model CCG estimate 7/14/10 based upon partial data

Custer charts August 2010 column

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Charts to accompany the Walt Custer & Jon Custer-Topai column that appears in Global SMT & Packaging magazine #10.8, August 2010.

Citation preview

Electronic Equipment OEM Composite vs. Custer Global Equipment Model

Quarterly Revenue Growth

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 201 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

-10.0

-20.0

% Growth (quarter vs same quarter in prior year)

70 Company Elec Equip CompositeCCG World El Eq Model

20100712

Composite of 70 Electronic Equipment Suppliers; Custer Consulting Group World Model

CCG estimate 7/14/10 based upon partial data

World Semiconductor Shipments Monthly US$

SIA

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 183 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

5

10

15

20

25US$ Billions (3-month average)

20100703

2009 recession much sharper but shorter than 2001

Record high

Global "Purchasing Managers" Index

JPMorgan

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 707 08 09 10

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58DIFFUSION INDEX

EXPANSIONCONTRACTION

20100703

U.S. Stock Index - S&P 500

Conference Boardwww.globalindicators.org/

1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 789 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

CALENDAR YEAR

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600S&P 500

20100719

World Electronic Equipment, PCB & Semiconductor Shipments

Converted @ Constant 2008 Exchange Rates

3 6 9 123 6 9 123 6 9 123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 600 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

CALENDAR YEAR

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

3/12 rate of change

PCB "0" Growth SIAEl Equip

Source: Custer Consulting Group

20100718

Global "Electronic Foodchain" Outlook 2010 vs 2009

4

11

28

29

84

Combined GDP

Electronic Equipment

Rigid & Flex PCBs

Semiconductors

Semi Capital Spending

0 20 40 60 80 100% Change

20100718

Henderson Ventures

Gartner

Henderson Ventures

Custer Consulting Group

WSTS

Personal Computer Unit ShipmentsWorld

Gartner 10/09 + Gartner 2009 annual forecast 12/09Servers not included

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 298 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0

20

40

60

80

100Units (Millions)

20100719