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TD AMERITRADE Technical Analysis Night School Week 1 Hosted By Derek Moore Director, National Education Past performance of a security does not guarantee future results or success. Content is provided for illustrative and educational use only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any specific security. TD AMERITRADE is not responsible for information, opinions or services provided by third parties. TD AMERITRADE, Division of TD AMERITRADE, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. TD AMERITRADE is a trademark jointly owned by TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2008 TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission. For the audio portion of today’s webcast, please enable your computer speakers.

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Page 1: Curso - Analsis tecnico

TD AMERITRADE

Technical Analysis Night School

Week 1Hosted By Derek Moore

Director, National Education

Past performance of a security does not guarantee future results or success. Content is provided for illustrative and educational use only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any specific security. TD AMERITRADE is not responsible for information, opinions or services provided by third parties.

TD AMERITRADE, Division of TD AMERITRADE, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. TD AMERITRADE is a trademark jointly owned by TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2008 TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.

For the audio portion of today’s webcast, please enable your computer speakers.

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Important InformationPast performance does not guarantee future results or success.

Short sales: The risk of loss on a short sale is potentially unlimited since there is no limit to the price increase of a security. There is no guarantee the brokerage firm can continue to maintain a short position for an unlimited time period. Your position may be closed out by the firm without regard to your profit or loss. Short sales can only be made in a margin account.

Margin trading increases risk of loss and includes the possibility of a forced sale if account equity drops below required levels. Margin is not available in all account types. Carefully review the Margin Handbook and Margin Disclosure Document for more details. Please see our Web site or contact TD AMERITRADE at 800-669-3900 for copies of these documents.

Examples presented today use actual securities and prices. They are for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered endorsements, solicitations, or recommendations to buy or sell these securities.

For simplicity, examples ignore dividends and transaction costs (commissions). Both are important factors should be considered when evaluating any potential trade.

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Important InformationStrategyDesk is a trademark of TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. Used with permission.

Subscription fees apply to NASDAQ Level II access. Access to real-time data is subject to acceptance of the exchange agreements. Professional access and fees differ. For details, see our Professional Rates and Fees.

Backtesting is the evaluation of a particular trading strategy using historical data. Results presented are hypothetical, they did not actually occur and they may not take into consideration all transaction fees or taxes you would incur in an actual transaction. And just as past performance of a security does not guarantee future results, past performance of a strategy does not guarantee the strategy will be successful in the future. Results could vary significantly, and losses could result.

In order for a programmed trade to be automatically entered when the conditions you set are met, your computer must be on and StrategyDesk must be running. You are responsible for all orders entered in your account when a program trade you set is activated. Please make sure you keep sufficient funds or positions in your account to support program trades.

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Derek Moore• The host of the Market and Option Huddle Webcasts,

has shared his knowledge of risk management, technical analysis, options trading and other subjects for more than a decade. The founder of TD AMERITRADE's national seminar series, Derek has created and delivered workshops that have helped investors across the country gain confidence in their trading.

• Derek is considered an expert in his field and has served as a featured contributor for both local and national media outlets. He is also the primary source for the Technical Advantage column in TD AMERITRADE's Enlightened Investor Newsletter.

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Accessing StrategyDesk Platform

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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The EMOTION of trading

Enter Position, hoping stock goes higher, NO EXIT Strategy

WISH we sold higher

HOPE we get back to breakeven

PRAY we get back to breakeven

This is called ‘letting your loss run’ and it is usually not a formula for profit!

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Trading Emotion – Have we ever cut our profit short?

The best results will generally come from cutting your losses short and letting your winners run

Buy

Sell?

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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The Foundation of Technical Analysis

• Technical analysis disregards the fundamentals of a stock or industry, believing that those facts are reflected in actual price history, and that the market price discounts all relevant information

• The central task is to identify the current trend and assess whether a trend will continue or reverse

• The technician focuses on price and volume information for clues about the continuation or reversal of the trend

A stock’s price can be impacted by a variety of factors such as overall market conditions, company earnings and news, or economic and political events. It is therefore important to stay informed of such developments!

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Trading Questions• How will I determine when to enter a position?• _____________________________________

• How will I determine when to exit a position?• _____________________________________

• How will I determine my position size?• _____________________________________

• How will I manage risk within each position?• ______________________________________

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Chart TypesBar Chart

High Low

Marks Note Open

Close

Candlestick Charts

“Wicks” represent actual high/low

WHITE BODY Close

Open

RED BODY Open

Close

Each Bar/Candle represents price for the period of study. 1 Bar or Candle on a daily chart represents 1 day. Weekly Charts, 1 week. 60-Minute Charts, 1 60-Minute period.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Trendlines

Uptrends see Higher Highs and Higher Lows

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Trendlines

Trends are in place

Until they are “violated”

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Channels

Price Oscillates between an upper and lower trend “channel”

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Range Bound Periods

Price in a trading range

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Support and Resistance

Areas where price has trouble breaking through on the upside and seems to find a net on the downside.

Resistance

Support

Bearish: Violates Support

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Multiple Trend Lines As Support-Resistance

Primary Trend Line

Trend Accelerates Forming 2nd

Steeper Trend Line.

Trend Lines Can Act As Support and Resistance

Violates 2nd Trend Line: Negative

Holds Primary Trend Line: Positive

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Support and Resistance Continued

Bullish: Breaks Through Resistance Area

Role Reversal. Resistance Now Support

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Moving Averages• Moving averages can be used to smooth a jagged price history in order to

see a trend more easily– A rising moving average defines an uptrend and a falling moving average defines

a downtrend• When a stock crosses the moving average it may imply a potential trend

change– Stocks trading above the moving average are considered bullish– Stocks trading below the moving average are considered bearish

• The length of the moving average should be chosen based on the trading timeframe of each trader

– Common moving averages are 10-period, 20-period, 50-period and 200-period• Moving averages are considered by technicians to be potentially lagging

indicators

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Moving Averages (MA) 50 DAY MA

Price Breaks Above MA

Simple Moving Average- Add up all closing prices then divide by the # of periods

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Moving Averages Continued

Some use multiple moving averages. Here the Blue Line represents the 20 period MA while the red line represents the 50 period MA.

The shorter MA crossing above the longer may hint at a bullish period.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Moving Averages Continued

Bearish Cross of Shorter MA below Longer MA

Price Breaks Below Moving Average Lines

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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“In Trading, You Win By Not Losing.”

-- Dr. Charles B. SchaapFrom “ADXcellence; Power Trend Strategies”

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• Traders sometimes use stop orders to cut losses by picking a point to sell should the market pull back or ‘retrace’

• A sell-stop order is placed below the current market price

• If the stock trades at the stop price, or lower, a market order to sell will be entered

• An alternative is to use a stop-limit order in which case a limit order is entered if the stop price is penetrated

Controlling Losses with Stop Orders

Note: A trailing-stop or stop order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activation price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders. With a stop-limit order, however, you risk missing the market altogether. In a fast-moving market, it might be impossible to execute an order at the stop-limit price or better, so you might not have the protection you sought.

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Exit Strategy: Stop Loss Orders

Example: Trader places stop order below support at $43.75. When Price drops to that level or lower, market order to sell entered.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Selecting a Stop Point

• Stop orders can be entered in dollar amounts. Trailing-Stops can be entered in a dollar amount or a percentage. Consider how much are you willing to risk on the trade?

• Traders may decide to limit the number of points on the downside by picking a specific exit price

• Technical indicators such as support, resistance or moving averages may help provide potential exit points

• Understand the volatility of the investment you are trading

• If your exit point risks more capital than your comfort level allows, consider reducing the position size or seeking an alternative investment

A trailing stop or stop loss order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activation price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders.With a stop limit order, however, you risk missing the market altogether. In a fast-moving market, it might be impossible to execute an order at the stop-limit price or better, so you might not have the protection you sought.

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Average True Range (ATR) Stops• Average True Range (ATR) is a non directional oscillator that

measures volatility.

• Stocks with greater trading ranges show higher ATR readings.

• Some traders using ATR to aid in determining proper stop placement may multiply ATR x 2 or more depending on risk threshold.

• For example: XYZ @ 40 with current ATR=2. To calculate a stop of 2 x ATR, (Current ATR x 2) – Stock Price= Exit Price.

• While ATR may reflect a current trading range, volatility can expand or contract. If volatility is greater than your trading plan allows, consider alternate securities.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past performance no indication of future results or success.

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Average True Range (ATR)

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past performance no indication of future results or success.

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Protecting Profits with Trailing Stops• A trailing stop is a stop order with an activation price that adjusts as the

stock moves in a particular direction

– For sells, the activation price is adjusted when the stock price moves up– For ‘buys-to-cover’ the activation price is adjusted when the stock price

moves down

• This allows a potentially profitable trade to increase while possibly helping to protect any gain from a sharp pullback

Note: A trailing-stop order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activated trailing-stop price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders.

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Exit Strategy: Trailing Stop Example

Bought stock at $26Bought stock at $26

Initial $3.50 trailing stop placed at $22.50Initial $3.50 trailing stop placed at $22.50

Stock Hits $29.81Stock Hits $29.81

Stock Hits $34.55Stock Hits $34.55

Stock Hits $38.39Stock Hits $38.39

Stop Raised to $26.31Stop Raised to $26.31

Stop Raised to $31.05Stop Raised to $31.05

Stop Raised to $34.89Stop Raised to $34.89

Stock Hits $41.25Stock Hits $41.25

Stop Raised to $37.75Stop Raised to $37.75

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Note: A trailing-stop order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activated trailing-stop price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders.

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Trailing Stops Example Continued

Stop price penetrated and market order entered.

Stop price penetrated and market order entered. Assuming trade at

approximately $37.75, gives a profit on trade of $11.75 per share (not including commissions and fees).

Assuming trade at approximately $37.75, gives a profit on trade of $11.75 per share (not including commissions and fees).

Note: A trailing-stop order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activated trailing-stop price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Entering Trailing Stops and Stops

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

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Order Status

The Activation Price on a Trailing Stop Sell will update when the stock price moves higher. The Activation Price is the price you choose to trigger the entry of a market sell order into your account.

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Note: A trailing-stop order will not guarantee an execution at or near the activated trailing-stop price. Once activated, they compete with other incoming market orders.

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“Being wrong isn’t a choice, but staying wrong is.”

-- Mark MinerviniFrom “Stock Market Wizards” by Jack D. Schwager

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Go to Research & Ideas, Choose Ideas, then Webcasts on left.

Content is provided for illustrative and educational use only . TD AMERITRADE is not responsible for information, opinions or services provided by third parties.

Choose Webcasts

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Contact Us

Call: 1-866-628-7223

Email: [email protected]

Past performance does not guarantee future results or success.

Content is provided for illustrative and educational use only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to purchase any specific security.

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Practice ChartsBlank Practice Charts

• You have 4 blank practice charts to apply what we’ve learned today.

• Instructor Notes and Hints on final 4 charts.

• Technicians use a variety of methods. Develop your own strategies.

• What did you see?

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Practice Charts - Trendlines

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Draw the trend line. Where does it violate the trend line?

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Practice Charts – Moving Averages

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Where does price Cross into positive or negative areas? Circle those areas.

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Practice Charts. Support and Resistance

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Draw where support and resistance lines were on this chart. Circle where it violated support. Would that have been a good area to have a protective stop order in?

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Practice Charts – Practical Application

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

What and Where are the trend lines? Exit or Entry areas? How can we manage risk?

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Teachers NotesTeachers Notes

• Looking at charts provides a way to visually interpret price data.

• “Marking Up” chart print outs is an excellent way to put your skills to work.

• Technical Analysis is a vast topic. Many technicians continue to practice.

• Join us for Weeks 2, 3, and 4.

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Practice Charts - Trendlines

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Draw the trend line. Where does it violate the trend line?

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Practice Charts – Moving Averages

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Where does price Cross into positive or negative areas? Circle those areas.

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Practice Charts. Support and Resistance

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Draw where support and resistance lines where on this chart. Circle where it violated support. Would that have been a good area to have a protective stop order in?

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Practice Charts – Practical Application

For illustrative purposes only. Not a recommendation. Past Performance no indication of future results or success.

Exit Area?

New Trend?

Are there any Entry Points? What is the trend?

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Important InformationPast performance does not guarantee future results or success.

Short sales: The risk of loss on a short sale is potentially unlimited since there is no limit to the price increase of a security. There is no guarantee the brokerage firm can continue to maintain a short position for an unlimited time period. Your position may be closed out by the firm without regard to your profit or loss. Short sales can only be made in a margin account.

Margin trading increases risk of loss and includes the possibility of a forced sale if account equity drops below required levels. Margin is not available in all account types. Carefully review the Margin Handbook and Margin Disclosure Document for more details. Please see our Web site or contact TD AMERITRADE at 800-669-3900 for copies of these documents.

Examples presented today use actual securities and prices. They are for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be considered endorsements, solicitations, or recommendations to buy or sell these securities.

For simplicity, examples ignore dividends and transaction costs (commissions). Both are important factors should be considered when evaluating any potential trade.

Page 47: Curso - Analsis tecnico

Important InformationStrategyDesk is a trademark of TD AMERITRADE IP Company, Inc. Used with permission.

Subscription fees apply to NASDAQ Level II access. Access to real-time data is subject to acceptance of the exchange agreements. Professional access and fees differ. For details, see our Professional Rates and Fees.

Backtesting is the evaluation of a particular trading strategy using historical data. Results presented are hypothetical, they did not actually occur and they may not take into consideration all transaction fees or taxes you would incur in an actual transaction. And just as past performance of a security does not guarantee future results, past performance of a strategy does not guarantee the strategy will be successful in the future. Results could vary significantly, and losses could result.

In order for a programmed trade to be automatically entered when the conditions you set are met, your computer must be on and StrategyDesk must be running. You are responsible for all orders entered in your account when a program trade you set is activated. Please make sure you keep sufficient funds or positions in your account to support program trades.