Economic & Political Weekly EPW NOVEMBER 28, 2015 vol L no 48 87

CURRENT STATISTICS EPW Research Foundation

Wholesale Price IndexThe year-on-year (y-o-y) WPI infl ation rate continued to be negative for the 12th consecutive month dipping to -3.8% in October 2015 (1.66% a year ago), but the defl ation is low compared to -4.5% recorded in September 2015. The index for primary articles group fell by -0.4%, compared to -2.1% in September 2015, while the infl ation for food articles inched up to 2.4% in October 2015 from 0.7% a month ago. The fuel and power index fell sharply by -16.3% in October 2015, compared to 0.5% in October 2014. The index for manufactured products declined by -1.7% in October 2015 against an infl ation of 2.5% a year ago.

Index of Industrial ProductionIIP growth slowed down by 3.6% y-o-y in September 2015, compared to 6.3% in August 2015. This was due to deceleration in the growth of mining and manufacturing, which registered 3% and 2.6% growth respectively, in September 2015 against 4.2% and 6.6% in August 2015. Electricity generation grew faster at 11.5% compared to 5.6% a month ago (3.9% a year ago). As per use-based classifi cation, growth in basic and capital goods slowed to 4% and 10.5%, respectively, in September 2015 from 5% and 12.3%, a year ago. Intermediate goods grew at 2.1% in September. Consumer durables grew by 8.4% while non-durables declined by 4.6%

Consumer Price IndexThe CPI infl ation rate inched up to 5.0% in October 2015, compared to 4.4% in September 2015 and 4.6% in October 2014, owing to a sharp increase in food prices. The food price infl ation rate increased by 5.3% in October 2015, against 3.9%, a month ago. The CPI-rural infl ation rate rose to 5.5% in October, compared to 5.1% a month ago (4.8% a year ago). The CPI-urban infl ation rate increased to 4.3% from 3.6% (4.5% in October 2014). As per Labour Bureau data, CPI infl ation for industrial workers and agricultural labourers increased to 5.1% and 3.5%, respectively, in September 2015 from 4.3% and 3.0%, in August 2015.

Foreign Trade–MerchandiseThe merchandise trade defi cit reduced by 28.1% to $9.8 billion (bn) in October 2015, compared to $13.6 bn in October 2014, owing to a 21.2% fall in imports, and 17.5% decline in exports. Exports continued to contract for the 11th month in a row and stood at $154.3 bn during April–October 2015, which is lower by 17.6% compared to $187.3 bn reported in the same period last year. Cumulative imports also shrank by 15.2% to $232.1 bn from $273.6 bn registered a year ago. Similarly, cumulative oil imports fell by 42.1% to $55 bn and non-oil imports declined marginally by 0.9% to $177.1 bn.

Merchandise Trade October 2015 Oct 2015 Over Month Over Year Year-so-far (April–Oct) ($ bn) (%) (%) (2015–16 over 2014–15) (%)

Exports 21.4 -2.3 -17.5 -17.6

Imports 31.1 -3.7 -21.2 -15.2

Trade deficit 9.8 -6.8 -28.1 -9.9

Data is provisional. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

CPI: Rural and Urban October 2015* (%) Latest Over Over Financial Year (Avgs) Month Index Month Year 2013–14 2014–15

Rural (2012=100) 127.7 0.6 5.5 9.6 6.2

Urban (2012=100) 124.2 0.6 4.3 9.4 5.7

CPI: Occupation-wise Sept 2015*

Industrial workers (2001=100) 266 0.8 5.1 9.7 6.3

Agricultural labourers (1986–87=100) 839 0.8 3.5 11.6 6.6

* Provisional. Source: CSO (rural and urban), Labour Bureau (IW and AL).

Trends in WPI and Its Components October 2015* (%) Financial Year (Averages) Weights Over Month Over Year 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

All commodities 100 0.1 -3.8 7.4 6.0 2.0

Primary articles 20.1 0.0 -0.4 9.8 9.8 3.0

Food articles 14.3 0.3 2.4 9.9 12.8 6.1

Fuel and power 14.9 0.5 -16.3 10.3 10.2 -0.9

Manufactured products 65.0 0.0 -1.7 5.4 3.0 2.4

* Data is provisional; Base: 2004–05=100; Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Industrial Growth: Sector-wise September 2015* (%) Weights Over Over Year Financial Year (Avgs) Month 2013–14 2014–15

General index 100 0.8 3.6 -0.1 2.8

Mining 14.2 -0.8 3.0 -0.6 1.5

Manufacturing 75.5 1.0 2.6 -0.8 2.3

Electricity 10.3 0.7 11.4 6.1 8.4

Industrial Growth: Use-based Basic goods 45.7 -1.2 4.0 2.1 7.0

Capital goods 8.8 7.7 10.5 -3.6 6.4

Intermediate goods 15.7 -1.3 2.1 3.1 1.7

Consumer goods 29.8 1.6 0.6 -2.8 -3.4

Consumer durables 8.5 2.3 8.4 -12.2 -12.6

Consumer non-durables 21.3 1.1 -4.6 4.8 2.8

* September 2015 are quick estimates; Base: 2004–05=100; Source: Central Statistics Office.

* Data (2015) is provisional.

* Data is provisional. Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Base: 2012=100.

Movement of WPI Inflation April–October

Components of Trade April–October of 2014–15 and 2015–16

Oil refers to crude petroleum and petroleum products, while non-oil refers to all other commodities.

Movement of CPI Inflation April 2014–October 2015

Movement of IIP Growth April–September

* September 2015 are quick estimates; Base: 2004–05=100.

Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.

EPW Research Foundation

*

%

-6

-3

0

3

6

OctoberSeptember*AugustJulyJuneMayApril

Year-on-Year in %

2015

2014

-3.8

1.7%

Year-on-Year in %

CPI

Miscellaneous

0

3

6

9

Oct*SAJJMAMFJanDNOSAJJMApril

Consumer Food

5.0%

3.5%

5.3%

2014 2015

$179 billionNon-Oil Imports

$187 billionExports

$154 billion

$95 billionOil Imports

$86 billionTrade Deficit

$177 billion

$55 billion$78 billion

0

2

4

6

September*AugustJulyJuneMayApril

2015

Year-on-Year in %

3.6%

2.4%

2014

CURRENT STATISTICS

NOVEMBER 28, 2015 vol L no 48 EPW Economic & Political Weekly88

EPW Research Foundation

India’s Quarterly Estimates of Final Expenditures on GDP for 2014–15 2014–15 2015–16 Financial YearRs crore | at 2011–12 Prices Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013–14 (NS) 2014–15 (PE)

Private final consumption expenditure 1483613 (6.2) 1443019 (7.1) 1543034 (4.2) 1594581 (7.9) 1592806 (7.4) 5704132 (6.2) 6064247 (6.3)Government final consumption expenditure 306488 (1.6) 338349 (8.9) 276412 (27.6) 236561 (-7.9) 310018 (1.2) 1086121 (8.2) 1157810 (6.6)Gross fixed capital formation 769880 (8.7) 777597 (3.8) 789694 (2.4) 854802 (4.1) 807225 (4.9) 3050236 (3.0) 3191973 (4.6)Change in stocks 41969 (4.9) 40276 (4.4) 37469 (0.2) 44284 (4.9) 44076 (5.0) 158211 (-21.4) 163998 (3.7)Valuables 41528 (26.2) 36999 (8.9) 36010 (20.3) 53348 (43.6) 49589 (19.4) 133975 (-48.7) 167884 (25.3)Net trade (Export–Import) -34550 -62135 -40438 -8297 -39102 -183308 -145420 Exports 596944 (9.1) 628508 (-2.0) 607707 (-0.3) 601191 (-8.2) 558269 (-6.5) 2453005 (7.3) 2434350 (-0.8)Less imports 631494 (-3.6) 690643 (1.1) 648145 (2.8) 609488 (-8.7) 597371 (-5.4) 2636313 (-8.4) 2579770 (-2.1)Discrepancies -74273 -7811 26616 98959 -51615 -28262 43491 Gross domestic product (GDP) 2534654 (6.7) 2566294 (8.4) 2668797 (6.6) 2874237 (7.5) 2712998 (7.0) 9921106 (6.9) 10643983 (7.3)

India’s Overall Balance of Payments (Net): Quarterly and Annual 2014–15 ($ mn) ($ mn) 2014–15 (Rupees bn) (Rupees bn) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015–16 FY 2014–15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015–16 FY 2014–15

Current account -7859 -10128 -8425 -1525 -6190 -27937 -470 [-1.6] -614 [-2.0] -522 [-1.6] -95 [-0.3] -393 [-1.2] -1700 [-1.4] Merchandise -34562 -38605 -39287 -31725 -34197 -144179 -2067 -2340 -2433 -1974 -2,171 -8814 Invisibles 26703 28477 30863 30200 28007 116242 1597 1726 1911 1880 1,778 7114 Services 16986 18992 20299 19406 17423 75683 1016 1151 1257 1208 1,106 4632 of which: Software services 17014 16917 17844 18625 17658 70400 1017 1025 1105 1159 1,121 4307 Transfers 16413 16344 16392 16393 16157 65542 981 991 1015 1020 1,025 4007 of which: Private 16626 16513 16527 16609 16274 66275 994 1001 1024 1034 1,033 4052 Income -6696 -6860 -5829 -5599 -5573 -24983 -400 -416 -361 -348 -354 -1526 Capital account 19179 16518 23551 30711 18073 89959 1147 [3.8] 1001 [3.3] 1459 [4.6] 1911 [5.8] 1,147 [3.5] 5518 [4.4] of which: Foreign investment 20321 17678 13495 22067 7874 73561 1215 1071 836 1373 500 4496 Overall balance 11179 6897 13182 30149 11430 61406 668 [2.2] 418 [1.4] 816 [2.6] 1876 [5.7] 725 [2.2] 3779 [3.0]

Figures in square brackets are percentage to GDP.

Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation 14 Nov 31 Mar 13 Nov Over Over Financial Year So Far Financial YearExcluding gold but including revaluation effects 2014 2015 2015 Month Year 2014–15 2015–16 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

Rs crore 1816690 2010400 2189400 25950 372710 128950 179000 73038 108086 82800 251570 322660US $ mn 294292 321309 332527 -1525 38236 13469 11219 19208 -14361 -485 16769 40486

Monetary Aggregates Variation Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial YearRs crore 2015 2014–15 2015–16 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

Money supply (M3) as on 30 October 11227440 7390 (0.1) 1107270 (10.9) 602790 (6.3) 681890 (6.5) 1024980 (13.9) 1127560 (13.4) 1028170 (10.8)Components Currency with public 1444470 30420 (2.2) 143960 (11.1) 54700 (4.4) 58120 (4.2) 118420 (11.6) 104750 (9.2) 140540 (11.3) Demand deposits 953740 -2400 (-0.3) 113020 (13.4) 28740 (3.5) 62990 (7.1) 42240 (5.9) 58760 (7.8) 78770 (9.7) Time deposits 8813870 -19770 (-0.2) 842990 (10.6) 513250 (6.9) 560000 (6.8) 863900 (15.3) 965340 (14.9) 796240 (10.7) Other deposits with RBI 15360 -870 (-5.4) 7300 (90.6) 6100 (311.2) 770 (5.3) 420 (14.9) -1280 (-39.5) 12630 (644.4)Sources Net bank credit to government 3278130 -63850 (-1.9) 169930 (5.5) 63330 (2.1) 271970 (9.0) 337320 (14.2) 335850 (12.4) -38710 (-1.3) Bank credit to commercial sector 7307150 -25330 (-0.3) 581910 (8.7) 279950 (4.3) 267570 (3.8) 709420 (14.3) 777430 (13.7) 594290 (9.2) Net foreign exchange assets 2402810 5780 (0.2) 384150 (19.0) 94710 (4.9) 152160 (6.8) 92880 (6.0) 287290 (17.6) 326700 (17.0)Banking sector’s net non-monetary liabilities 1781290 -90800 (-4.9) 30760 (1.8) -163540 (-8.5) 11030 (0.6) 116530 (7.7) 275010 (16.8) -143810 (-7.5)Reserve Money as on 13 November 1991860 64050 (3.3) 242460 (13.9) 16660 (1.0) 63400 (3.3) 88540 (6.2) 217850 (14.4) 195720 (11.3)Components Currency in circulation 1581870 70730 (4.7) 198870 (14.4) 81930 (6.3) 133560 (9.2) 123750 (11.6) 110090 (9.2) 147240 (11.3) Bankers’ deposits with RBI 395070 -6920 (-1.7) 36680 (10.2) -71310 (-16.6) -70490 (-15.1) -35610 (-10.0) 109020 (34.0) 35860 (8.3) Other deposits with RBI 14920 240 (1.6) 6910 (86.3) 6050 (308.7) 330 (2.3) 420 (14.9) -1280 (-39.5) 12630 (644.4)Sources Net RBI credit to Government 448450 -13370 (-2.9) -135170 (-23.2) -115090 (-16.5) 83930 (23.0) 54840 (10.2) 108130 (18.3) -334190 (-47.8) of which: Centre 447440 -12560 (-2.7) -134490 (-23.1) -115710 (-16.6) 86400 (23.9) 56080 (10.5) 107140 (18.1) -336600 (-48.2) RBI credit to banks & commercial sector 109240 67580 (162.2) 58990 (117.4) -7240 (-12.6) -93260 (-46.1) 34610 (393.3) 14080 . 145010 . Net foreign exchange assets of RBI 2316110 26340 (1.2) 390310 (20.3) 123270 (6.8) 188830 (8.9) 85860 (5.8) 244470 (15.7) 324750 (18.0) Govt’s currency liabilities to the public 20650 0 (0.0) 2040 (11.0) 1270 (7.3) 1220 (6.3) 1900 (14.1) 2000 (13.0) 2090 (12.1) Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI 902590 16500 (1.9) 73710 (8.9) -14440 (-1.7) 117320 (14.9) 88670 (14.7) 150810 (21.8) -58050 (-6.9)

Scheduled Commercial Banks’ Indicators (Rs crore) Variation

Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year

(As on 30 October) 2015 2014–15 2015–16 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

Aggregate deposits 9140030 -23790 (-0.3) 915900 (11.1) 518570 (6.7) 606740 (7.1) 841360 (14.2) 955110 (14.1) 827730 (10.7) Demand 854960 -2250 (-0.3) 106920 (14.3) 34110 (4.8) 60930 (7.7) 36970 (5.9) 51630 (7.8) 80100 (11.2) Time 8285070 -21540 (-0.3) 808970 (10.8) 484460 (6.9) 545810 (7.1) 804400 (15.2) 903480 (14.8) 747620 (10.7)Cash in hand 62950 7520 (13.6) 4880 (8.4) 12210 (26.6) 9600 (18.0) 4360 (12.1) 5370 (13.3) 7490 (16.3)Balance with RBI 375510 -11200 (-2.9) 35470 (10.4) 23690 (7.5) 2430 (0.7) -41000 (-12.7) 34090 (12.1) 56730 (17.9)Investments 2680750 -13560 (-0.5) 279130 (11.6) 188800 (8.5) 188920 (7.6) 268320 (15.4) 206720 (10.3) 279010 (12.6) of which: Government securities 2678160 -13920 (-0.5) 278170 (11.6) 188790 (8.5) 188410 (7.6) 268640 (15.5) 207550 (10.4) 278550 (12.6)Bank credit 6803970 -26270 (-0.4) 559780 (9.0) 250100 (4.2) 267550 (4.1) 648610 (14.1) 733630 (13.9) 542330 (9.0) of which: Non-food credit 6701520 -41260 (-0.6) 566300 (9.2) 239570 (4.1) 259520 (4.0) 633490 (14.0) 731610 (14.2) 546350 (9.3)

Capital Markets 20 November Month Year Financial Year So Far 2014–15 End of Financial Year 2015 Ago Ago Trough Peak Trough Peak 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

S&P BSE SENSEX (Base: 1978–79=100) 25868 (-7.8) 27307 28068 (36.0) 24894 29044 22277 29682 18836 (8.2) 22386 (18.8) 27957 (24.9)S&P BSE-100 (Base: 1983–84=100) 7996 (-5.7) 8390 8475 (38.4) 7687 8980 6680 9107 5679 (-38.0) 6707 (18.1) 8607 (28.3)S&P BSE-200 (1989–90=100) 3331 (-3.4) 3484 3448 (41.2) 3193 3691 2678 3723 2288 (6.0) 2681 (17.2) 3538 (31.9)CNX Nifty (Base: 3 Nov 1995=1000) 7857 (-6.5) 8262 8402 (37.2) 7559 8834 6653 8996 5683 (7.3) 6704 (18.0) 8491 (26.7)Net FII investment in equities (US $ Million)* 166030 (2.7) 166627 161606 (12.7) - - - - 136304 (23.4) 149745 (9.9) 168116 (12.3)* = Cumulative total since November 1992 until period end | Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year | (-) = not relevant | -: not available | NS = new series | PE = provisional estimates

Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.