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Current Market Outlook Dr. Fariba Alamdari
Fundamentals of Airline Management
Module 2: 12 October 2015
Istanbul Technical University
Air Transportation Management
M.Sc. Program
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Twenty-year traffic and product forecast
All regions of the world
• 185 airlines / groups
• 63 traffic flows
All jets 30 seats and above
• No turbo props
• No business jets
Freighters
Scheduled and nonscheduled flying
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20-year traffic and airplane forecast
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Product
strategy
Long-range
business plan
Suppliers and
airline customers
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Accurate
Conservative
Under-forecasted
single-aisles
Over-forecasted large
and regional jets
Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats
SOURCES: CMO 1995, CMO 2005, ASCEND
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 - 2014
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
1995 - 2014
Medium-term
Long-term
1995 CMO
Forecast
2005 CMO
Forecast
Actual
Actual
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reca
Infrastructure Economic growth
Market liberalization
Emerging markets
Fuel price
Airline strategies &
business models
Airplane capabilities Environment
High speed
rail
Current Market Outlook
2015-2034
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-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Pax airline traffic growth GDP
Percent annual change passenger traffic Real GDP growth
SOURCES: Traffic growth – ICAO/IATA GDP growth – IMF (PPP)
Long-term
traffic growth
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Trade
GDP level
GDP per capita
Network structure
Infrastructure
Business model
Regulatory environment
Macroeconomics
Value of service
Demand
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate
RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
RP
Ks (
trill
ion
s)
Above
trend
since
2010
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2014 to 2034
3.1% World
economy (GDP)
4.9% Airline traffic
(RPK)
4.7% Cargo traffic (RTK)
Number of airline
passengers 4.0%
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Africa
Annual GDP growth, 2014 – 2034
SOURCE: IHS Economics
1.8
4.3
4.6
1.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.8
3.4
4.5
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Asia
Europe
CIS
North America
Oceania
World
Latin America
Middle East
South Asia
China 5.6
6.4
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Within Asia*
Within China
Within North America
Within Europe
Middle East - Asia
Europe - Asia
North Atlantic
Within Latin America
Transpacific
Within/to CIS
North America - Latin America
Europe - Latin America
Africa - Europe
RPKs, billions
*Does NOT include travel within China
3.3%
7.2%
6.6%
4.4%
3.9%
4.9%
5.0%
4.4%
5.1%
3.0%
2.4%
6.2%
6.2% 2014 traffic
Added traffic 2015-2034
Annual growth %
World Traffic
Growth: 4.9%
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1994 2014 2034
Passenger traffic, (RPKs) billions
SOURCE: Boeing 2015 CMO
Asia (excl. China)
38%
Middle East
Other
China
Europe
North
America 49%
73%
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Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015 - 2034
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Regional jets 7%
Single- aisle 70%
Small wide-body
13%
Large wide-body
1%
Medium wide-body
9%
2,490
26,730
4,770
540 3,520
New airplane deliveries by region 2015 - 2034
38%
19%
8%
8%
3% 3%
21%
38,050
Asia 14,330
North America 7,890
Europe 7,310
Middle East 3,180
Latin America 3,020
Africa 1,170
C.I.S. 1,150
World Total 38,050
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Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion 2015 - 2034
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Regional jets 2%
Single- aisle 50%
Small wide-body
22%
Large wide-body
4%
Medium wide-body
22%
$100B
$2,770B
$1,250B
$230B
$1,220B
New airplane values by region 2015 - 2034
39%
19%
13%
6% 3%
3%
17%
$5.6T
Asia $2,200B
North America $940B
Europe $1,050B
Middle East $730B
Latin America $350B
Africa $160B
C.I.S. $140B
World Total $5,570B
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Global fleet will double Units
38,050
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2014 2034
5,510
Retained fleet
16,090
Replacement
42%
21,960
Growth
58%
43,560
21,600
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Economic
Growth
Long-term fundamentals are very strong
Aircraft
efficiency
Increasing
replacements
20% more efficient
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Air travel resilient
• Diverse, growth industry
Economic growth key driver
• Additional factors influence markets
Airlines managing dynamic business
• Record profits 2014/2015
Strong long-term outlook
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What is the current business environment for MonteCristoAir?
What is their competitive environment?
What is their market outlook?
What strategies should MonteCristoAir employ to ensure success in this
environment?
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