Current Market Outlook - Home - Boeing 787 Updates787updates.newairplane.com/Boeing787Updates/media/Boeing...Title Title Here Author Lynn Hanks Created Date 7/8/2016 9:14:22 AM

Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.

CurrentMarket

Outlook

2016

Randy TinsethVice President,

Marketing

John WojickSenior Vice President,

Global Sales & Marketing

Boeing Commercial Airplanes

July 2016


Agenda

Market performance and trends

Current Market Outlook (CMO)


Global market performance 2010 – 2015

Passenger traffic

growth

Cargo traffic

growth

Airline

profits


2016 global market expectations

Passenger traffic

growth

Cargo traffic

growth

Airline

profits

SOURCES: Boeing estimates for growth, IATA forecast for airline profits


Global aviation market trends

Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs

Continued strong replacement demand

New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets


Emerging markets / China leading future growth

GDP contributions

2015-2035

GDP growth

2015-2035

Emerging Markets

and China

Advanced

Economies

4.3%

1.8%

$35 trillion

$20 trillion


LCCs taking >1/3 of new single-aisle deliveries

41%

25%

30%

4%

37%

26%

33%

4%

LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks

44%

25%

27%

4%

2025 2035

SOURCE: Boeing CMOs

Single-aisle airplane fleet

2015

25%


Replacement demand increasing

0

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250

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Excludes >700 airplanes

older than 25 years

Excludes >300 airplanes

older than 25 years

Single-aisle Twin-aisle

Airp

lan

es tu

rnin

g 2

5 y

ea

rs o

ld


787 Dreamliner opening new markets

As of June 24, 2016

Bergen

Bangkok

Brisbane

Boston

Guangzhou

Copenhagen

Chengdu

Dusseldorf

Doha

Denver

Edinburgh

Fort Lauderdale

Sao Paulo

Hanoi

Tokyo

Jakarta

Houston

New York

OsakaLos Angeles

Lagos

OrlandoMonterrey

Manchester

Nairobi

Oslo

Oakland Beijing

Shanghai

Puerto Vallarta

San Francisco

Ho Chi Minh

Wuhan

Helsinki

Montego Bay

Mauritius

Barbados

San Juan

Warsaw

Xi'an

Toronto

Vancouver

Aruba

MelbourneSydney

Dublin

Casablanca

Addis Ababa

Delhi

RomeSeoul

Calgary

Maputo

Tashkent

Announced

In operation

>100 new nonstop markets now connected with the 787


Agenda

Market performance and trends

Current Market Outlook (CMO)

Products and customers


What’s in the CMO?

20-year

forecast

• Traffic

• Product

All jets >30

seats

• No turbo props

• No biz jets

• No military

All flights

• Scheduled

• Nonscheduled

Global

coverage

• 63 traffic

flows

Freighters


Why the CMO?

Product

strategy

Long-range

business plan

Suppliers and

airline customers


Market forecast drivers and considerations

Economicgrowth

Marketliberalization

Emergingmarkets

Fuel price

Environment

Competitivelandscape

Infrastructure

Airlinestrategies &

businessmodels

Airplanecapabilities


Resilient, growing market expected to continue

RPKs = Revenue Passenger KilometersSOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

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1998

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2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

RP

Ks (

trill

ion

s)

5% long-term growth rate


20-year forecast: continued long-term growth

GDP Pax RPK RTK

2.9%

4.0%

4.8%

4.2%

World economy(GDP)

Passenger traffic(RPK)

Cargo traffic(RTK)

Number of airlinepassengers

Average annual growth rates


Airlines need 39,620 new airplanes valued at $5.9 trillion

Airplane deliveries: 39,6202016 - 2035

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Regionaljets6%

Single-aisle71%

Small wide-body

13%

Largewide-body

1%

Mediumwide-body

9%

2,380

28,140

5,100

5303,470

Market value: $5,930B2016 - 2035

2%

51%

23%

4%

21%

Regional jets $110B

Single-aisle $3,000B

Small wide-body $1,350B

Medium wide-body $1,250B

Large wide-body $220B

World Total $5,930B

Airplane Type Value

$5.9T

NOTE: market share may not equal 100% due to rounding


World fleet will double

39,620

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

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45,000

50,000

2015 2035

5,620

Retained fleet

16,890

Replacement

43%

22,730

Growth

57%

45,240

22,510

Units


Emerging markets are driving economic growth

Asia

1.8

3.8

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.9

3.7

4.1

MiddleEast

Europe

NorthAmerica

CIS

LatinAmerica

Africa

SOURCE: IHS Economics

Annual GDP growth, 2015 – 2035

World


Air travel growth varies by market

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Within Asia*

Within China

Within North America

Within Europe

Middle East - Asia

Europe - Asia

North Atlantic

Transpacific

North America - Latin America

Within Latin America

Within/to CIS

Europe - Latin America

Africa - Europe

Added traffic 2016-2035

4.7%

6.1%

2015 traffic Annual growth %

4.8%

6.2%

3.2%

6.9%

4.5%

5.4%

5.6%

4.1%

4.7%

2.9%

2.6%

WorldTraffic Growth:

4.8%

WorldGDP Growth:

2.9%

RPKs in billions*Does NOT include travel within China


Market to become even more geographically balanced

38%

21%

19%

8%

8%

3%3%

40%

17%

19%

13%

6%

2%

3%

New airplane deliveries by region2016–2035

Market value by region2016–2035

39,620 $5.9T

Region $B

Asia 2,350

North America 1,030

Europe 1,120

Middle East 770

Latin America 350

C.I.S. 140

Africa 170

World Total $5,930B

Region Airplanes

Asia 15,130

North America 8,330

Europe 7,570

Middle East 3,310

Latin America 2,960

C.I.S. 1,170

Africa 1,150

World Total 39,620


Airlines will need 28,140 single-aisles valued at $3 trillion

2016 to 2035New airplanes

28,140

2015Airplanes

14,870

2035Airplanes32,280

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Asia40%

North America

19%

Europe21%

Middle East 5%

Latin America

9%

C.I.S.3%

Africa3%

Share of fleet Delivery units


Single-aisle seat capacity growing at ~1% per year

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

Market LCC

Outlook

Average single-aisle seat capacity


Single-aisle seating capacity increasing

Fast growing

LCCs

Modest

upgauging

Improved cabin

efficiencies


Medium-size aircraft are at heart of single-aisle market

SOURCE: Ascend Online Data June 28, 2016All passenger jet airplanes >110 seats in commercial use

76%

19%5%

Backlog

Large – MAX 9 size

Small – MAX 7 size

Medium – MAX 8 size


Airlines will need 9,100 wide-bodies valued at $2.8 trillion

Share of fleet Delivery units

2016 to 2035New airplanes

9,100

2015Airplanes

5,040

2035Airplanes10,450

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Asia41%

North America

15%

Europe17%

Middle East19%

Latin America

3%

C.I.S.2%

Africa3%



In 1990, >30 routes to / from Tokyo were served by large airplanes

SOURCE: OAG / Innovata


In 2016, only 8 routes to / from Tokyo served by large airplanes

SOURCE: OAG / Innovata


Shift from large to smaller wide-bodies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

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199

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200

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200

1

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0

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1

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747

A380

777

A340

MD11

787

A330

A350-900

767

A300/A310

30% of fleet 11% of fleet

SOURCE: Ascend commercial passenger widebody fleet in service at year-end


Market summary

Market remains resilient, long-term growth continues

Single-aisle stays fastest growing segment

Wide-body fleet will double


Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. Author, Filename.ppt | 32

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Current Market Outlook - Home - Boeing 787 Updates787updates.newairplane.com/Boeing787Updates/media/Boeing...Title Title Here Author Lynn Hanks Created Date 7/8/2016 9:14:22 AM