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Current Climate Change
Ch. 17, Bush
Outline
v Evidence for recent climate change
v Are humans the cause?
v Potential ecological effects of climate change
Outline
v Evidence for recent climate change
v Are humans the cause?
v Potential effects of climate change
Evidence of Temperature Changes
v Three main sources of data:
– Direct measurements of temperature
– Location of ice caps and tropical glaciers
– Thickness of ice caps
Temperature records
v We have accurate records only for the past 120 years
v Most temperature readings taken at cities which are “heat islands”
Whaling and Polar Ice caps
Changes in extent of sea ice Thickness of Ice Caps
v Submarines make careful measurements of the distance between the ice and the bottom of the sea
v Have estimated that the thickness of the ice caps have decreased from 3.1m to 1.8m
Tropical Glaciers are melting
v All tropical glaciers are above 4800 m
v At the current rate of temperature change, it is estimated that all will be gone in 50 yearsKilimanjaro
The effect of melting ice caps
v There is not enough water trapped in the ice caps to create “Waterworld”
v The biggest effect of ice caps melting comes from the decrease in ALBEDO
Albedo = brightness Ice caps have high albedo
Outline
v Evidence for recent climate change
v Are humans the cause?
v Potential effects of climate change
Last glacial period ended 11,000 years ago
v 90% of last 2 million years has been glacial
v For the last 10,000 years, plants and animals have been living in an unusually warm environment
Temperature changes over the years
v The rate of climate change we are currently experiencing is only matched by the rapid warming at the end of the last ice age
Temperature changes in history
v Between 1400-1700 the earth was a few degrees colder
v Called “The Little Ice Age”
v Influenced history:– Outcome of battles– Crops failing causing
famine
Greenhouse effect
v Light energy enters the atmosphere
v Changes to heat energy
v Light energy exits atmosphere but heat energy is trapped
The Greenhouse effect
v The greenhouse effect is not all bad
v Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would be, on average, -18 οC
Creation of greenhouse gases
v The burning of fossil fuels is increasing the greenhouse effect
v Important greenhouse gases:– HCF’s, CFC’s– Methane– CO2
– Water vapour
Relative contribution of greenhouse gases
v Other chemicals are actually better at trapping heat but CO2 contributes more to the greenhouse effect due to the fact that it is way more abundant
CO2 and water vapour
v CO2 causes minor increase in temperature
v Increase in temperature causes more water vapour via evaporation
v Water vapour leads to further greenhouse effect and higher temperature
Carbon cycle
v In the natural carbon cycle, respiration and decomposition increase CO2
v Photosynthesis decreases CO2
v Burning fossil fuels now contributes to CO2 gain
Fossil fuels
Fossil fuels are ancient organisms that did not decompose
The major culprits…
Carbon sinks
v Each year humanity dumps roughly 8 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere– 6.5 billion tons from fossil fuels and 1.5 billion
from deforestation
v But less than half that total, 3.2 billion tons, remains in the atmosphere to warm the planet
v Forests, grasslands, and the waters of the oceans are acting as carbon sinks
Outline
v Evidence for recent climate change
v Are humans the cause?
v Potential effects of climate change
Potential effects of CO2 increase
v Predicted changes in temperature
v Changes to the natural world
v Changes to human life
Recent increases in CO2
v Jagged line is caused by seasonal changes in photosynthesis; in summer N. Hemisphere plants use up more CO2
Pollution can mitigate increases in temperature
v Pollutants such as those from car exhaust are causing increases in cloud cover
v Cloud cover increases albedo
Air pollution increases albedo
CO2 and temperature changes
v Simulations of temperature changes are becoming increasingly accurate
Predicted temperature change
v Five principal research groups all produce climate models
v Differences arise in the predictions made about social and political change
v Medium estimate is that the average temperature on Earth will rise ~3.5 οC
Increased photosynthesis Planting trees to decrease temp
v Deforestation causes decreases in CO2 absorption
v Planting trees will have the opposite effect ->decreases CO2
C4 evolution changing atmospheres
v C4 photosynthesis appears to have evolved at a time when O2 was high and CO2 was low and temperatures were high
The global distribution of C4 plants in today's world
v C4 grasslands (orange) have evolved in the tropics and warm temperate regions where C3 forests (green) are excluded by seasonal drought and fire.
v C3 grasses (yellow) remain dominant in cool temperate grasslands because C4 grasses are less productive at low temperatures.
Temperature and precipitation Climate affects ecology
Deserts will spread N. Hemi. plants will migrate north
Predicted migration of beech and maple trees
Migration of species
v Industrialization may impede the migration of many species
v Temperate species (and island species) may have nowhere to migrate to
v If migration can not occur then extinction will likely take place
Cold-adapted species
Implications to Conservation Extinction and global warming
v One study indicated that, by 2050, current warming trends could bring about extinction of 15 to 37 percent of the 1,103 species they studied
v A mere 6 degrees of global warming was enough to wipe out up to 95 per cent of the species which were alive on earth at the end of the Permian period, 250 million years ago
Arable land will have new locations
v Best conditions for farming will move towards poles
v Will be at the latitude of the Canadian Shield
v More irrigation needed as crop land will be drier
v Expected 20% decrease in cultivatable land
Other reasons why global warming a threat to life on Earth?
v Incidences of heat attacks, respiratory disease and stroke will increase
v Disease and pests are more likely to spread
v Tropical storms, tornadoes, landslides, heatwaves and droughts will both increase in number and intensity
v Air quality will become poorer
v coastal cities like Miami, New Orleans, Los Angeles and Bangkok will be flooded as ocean level rises due to melting glaciers
v ocean levels rise, some inland drinking water sources will become contaminated by saltwater
Summary
v The Earth is becoming increasingly warm
v Recently, humans have contributed to this phenomenon
v Temperature increases will have severe effects to the natural world