Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailandthai-german-cooperation.info/download/20141001_pdp_03_isit_steel... · Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in

Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailand

1 October 2014

By Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

2

Content

Macro economics situation

Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook

3

Content



4

Thai Economy in 2013 & Q1&Q2/2014

Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)

5

Private consumption expenditure expanded slightly after 3 consecutive quarters of contraction, while Consumer Confidence Index began to improve.

6

Private investment declined due to the contraction in machinery and equipment and construction investment.

7

Industrial sector continued to contract for five consecutive quarters, though showing a slight improvement compared with the previous quarter following the increases in export industries.

8

Content



Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 134.9M tons; 3.1%increasing from Aug 2013

9

Source: World Steel Association

136,695

124,990

141,335

136,626

141,184

137,122 136,819134,956

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

World crude steel production

EU: -0.1%

CIS: -5.7%

N.America: 3.1%

S.America: -1.3%

Aug 2014: 134.9 Million tonnes

(3.1%)

Asia: 4.1%

Oceania: -13.1%

Middle East: 2.0%

China

Major countries crude steel production (‘000 Tonnes)

South Korea India

U.S. RUSSIATurkey

China’s Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 68.9M tons; 4%increasing from Aug 2013


10

68,727

62,076

70,25068,835

70,43269,294

68,324 68,910

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000


China Crude Steel Production

6,954

6,280

7,250

7,015 7,080

6,7326,960 7,027

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500


India Crude Steel Production

7,329

6,691

7,405

7,027

7,4657,228

7,609 7,682

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000


America Crude steel production

5,909

5,339

6,028

5,800

6,0535,888

6,203 6,169

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000


Russia crude steel production

2,829

2,666

2,845

2,620

3,0163,124

2,8232,902

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500


Turkey crude steel production

6,040

5,291

6,127 6,0986,164

6,0485,897

5,285

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500


South Korea crude steel production

Flat Product Prices (USD/Tonne)

Source: SBB and ISIT analysis

Flat Product’s Price of August 2014 is decline while the Slab Price increase

373 378 383

500 505 510

565528 526

655615 605

147111 113

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

26 M

ar 1

2

16 A

pr 1

2

7 M

ay 1

2

28 M

ay 1

2

18 J

un 1

2

9 Ju

l 12

30 J

ul 1

2

20 A

ug 1

2

10 S

ep 1

2

1 O

ct 1

2

22 O

ct 1

2

12 N

ov 1

2

3 D

ec 1

2

24 D

ec 1

2

14 J

an 1

3

4 F

eb 1

3

25 F

eb 1

3

18 M

ar 1

3

8 A

pr 1

3

29 A

pr 1

3

20 M

ay 1

3

10 J

un 1

3

1 Ju

l 13

22 J

ul 1

3

12 A

ug 1

3

2 S

ep 1

3

23 S

ep 1

3

14 O

ct 1

3

4 N

ov 1

3

25 N

ov 1

3

16 D

ec 1

3

6 Ja

n 14

27 J

an 1

4

17 F

eb 1

4

10 M

ar 1

4

31 M

ar 1

4

21 A

pr 1

4

12 M

ay 1

4

2 Ju

n 14

23 J

un 1

4

14 J

ul 1

4

4 A

ug 1

4

25 A

ug 1

4

Scrap Slab HRC CRC Prem Low Vol HCC - FOB $/t

Long Product Prices (USD/Tonne)

Source: SBB and ISIT analysis

Flat Product’s Price of August 2014 is decline from the previous months

545

461448

538

523 518

373 378 378

760

640 640

560

485 465

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

26

Mar

12

16

Ap

r 1

2

7 M

ay 1

2

28

May

12

18

Jun

12

9 J

ul 1

2

30

Jul

12

20

Au

g 1

2

10

Se

p 1

2

1 O

ct

12

22

Oc

t 12

12

No

v 1

2

3 D

ec 1

2

24

Dec

12

14

Jan

13

4 F

eb

13

25

Feb

13

18

Mar

13

8 A

pr

13

29

Ap

r 1

3

20

May

13

10

Jun

13

1 J

ul 1

3

22

Jul

13

12

Au

g 1

3

2 S

ep

13

23

Se

p 1

3

14

Oc

t 13

4 N

ov

13

25

No

v 1

3

16

Dec

13

6 J

an 1

4

27

Jan

14

17

Feb

14

10

Mar

14

31

Mar

14

21

Ap

r 1

4

12

May

14

2 J

un

14

23

Jun

14

14

Jul

14

4 A

ug

14

25

Au

g 1

4

Rebar Billet Scrap Merchant Bar Wire Rod

13

In 2013, Thailand apparent steel use was 17.7 million tons, increased by 4.6% from 2012

12,661

13,876

12,154

12,718 13,528

10,644

13,871

14,411

16,914

17,676

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

Production Import Export Apparent steel use

4.6%

CAGR 13/12

Thailand apparent steel use (‘000 Tonnes)

17,698

-2.5% 8.5% -0.3%

Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

14

Thailand steel demand in 2013, the demand rising is beneficial to import, not for local production

Total ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12

Production 6,845 7,020 -2.5%

Import 12,249 11,293 8.5%

Export 1,396 1,400 -0.3%

Apparent Consumption 17,698 16,914 4.6%

Long ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12

Production 3,959 4,051 -2.3%

Import 2,930 2,483 18.0%

Export 961 890 7.9%


Flat ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12

Production 2,886 2,970 -2.8%

Import 9,318 8,811 5.8%

Export 434 509 -14.7%



15

Construction industry remained the highest steel

consumer 50.9% in 2013.


50.9%

22.4%

11.7%

10.8%

4.3%

Construction is major steel consuming sector 2013

Construction

Automotive

Machinery & Industrial

Appliance

Packaging

Ratio Long product : Flat product = 32 : 68

Demand breakdown

- Construction 50.9%

- Automotive 22.4%

- Machinery & Industrial 11.7%

- Appliance 10.8%

- Packaging 4.3%

16

In 2013, Thailand demand of steel per capita was 274 kilograms.


150

156

267 282 256 257

246

229 232

169 219

229 262

274

279 9,273

9,700

16,764

17,775

15,838

16,063

15,443

14,43014,729

10,758

14,01214,647

16,914

17,676

18,117

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Demand per capita (Kg) ASU (1,000 tonnes)

Thailand demand per capita (Kg)

17,698

18,140(E)

Thailand steel industry structure

Ironmaking Steelmaking Finishing & Coating End Users

Scrap recycle

Hot-Rolling

Hot-Rolling Cold-Rolling Coating

Construction50%

Automobiles and parts

23%

Machinery and Industrial Products

12%

Electrical Appliances

11%

Packaging4%

Cold-Drawing

Forming

16 Mills• TATA• G Steel• GJS• SYS• TRIUMP• Etc.

Production:4.2 m TImport:3.7 m TExport:0.2 mTDemand:7.7 m T

ImportRussia, Ukraine, Turkey, Brazil

ExportVietnam, Philippines, India, Taiwan

Long Product

Flat Products

3 Mills• SUS• TCRSS• Bluescope

1 Mill (stainless)

• POSCO-Thainox

Production: 1.7 m TImport:0.7 m TExport: 0.1 m TDemand: 1.6 m T

Import

Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China

Export

China, India, Italy, Indonesia

~ 50 Mills• TATA• Sahaviriya• Tycoon• Etc.

Production: 3.7 m TImport: 1.7 m TExport: 0.8 m TDemand: 4.7 m T

~ 100 Mills

1,000 Mills

Machining

Bending

Cutting

Welding

Forging

Heat Treatment

Etc.

1 Mill• TATA

(Mini-Blast Furnace)


5 Mills• G Steel• GJ Steel• Sahaviriya• LPN

Production: 3.9 m TImport: 3 m TExport :0.3m TDemand : 4.2 m T

ImportJapan, S. Korea, Australia, China

ExportVietnam, Malaysia, Laos

~ 15 Mills

• Bluescope• Thai Tin Plate

Production: 0.8 m TImport: 2.2 m TExport: 0.1m TDemand: 2.9 m T

Import

Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China

Export

Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Hong Kong

18

Thailand steel industry currently under-utilized assets

Source: Iron and Steel Institute of ThailandRolling mills

Mini mills

Thailand capacity and capacity utilization

Capacity Output %CU

Billet 5,508 2,277 40-45%

Bar 5000 (Est.)2,989 45-50%

HR section 2,142

WR 1,546 622 40-45%

Seamless pipe 200 n.a n.a

HRC 7,000 2,701 35-40%

HRP 1,100 309 25-30%

CRC (Carbon & STS) 2,800 1,387 50-60%

HDG 560 141 20-25%

TP&TF 780 385 45-50%

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New investment in Thailand


Production Start in 2013 investment news 2014

• Dongbu Thai Steel-Pre-coated Metal Sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 80,000

• Nippon Steel & SumikinGalvanizing (Thailand)

-Galvanized/Galvannealed Steel-Capacity (TPY.) 360,000

• JFE Steel Galvanizing (Thailand) -Galvanized Steel sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 400,000

• PCM Processsing (Thailand) (New Continuous Color Coating Line)

-Pre-painted steel sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 72,000

oNSSMC & BlueScope Steel planed to produce a signature coated sheet product call ‘Super Dyma’with Capacity 200,000 TPY.

oPosco will start building a new continuous galvanizing line in Thailand to produce exclusively autosheet with Capacity 400,000 TPY.

In the first half of 2014, Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption was 8.3 Mt, down by 14.6% y-o-y. Long Product Finished Steel Consumption down by 9.6% y-o-y.

Long Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun 2014

Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis

Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change

Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347,851 -10.0% 5,677,225 -15.6% 716,790 0.1% 8,308,286 -14.6%

Long Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,929,022 -12.6% 1,475,726 -1.0% 505,904 2.5% 2,898,844 -9.6%

Long Product Bar Carbon steel 1,697,546 120,712 -40.8% 111,377 3.2%

Stainless steel 5,538 -17.3% 5,729 -4.5%

Alloy steel 192,314 -11.9% 32,993 39.9%

HR section Carbon steel 90,356 86.1% 215,264 0.4%

Stainless steel 1,409 -22.1% 1,132 335.4%

Alloy steel 12,558 42.2% 1,099 -13.9%

Wire rod Carbon steel 231,476 120,379 -8.8% 7,568 -29.3%

Stainless steel 30,006 27.1% 99 -83.6%

Alloy steel 602,529 7.5% 343 1,459.1%

Cold-drawn bar 28,928 -5.7% 12,704 21.6%

Steel wire 91,921 -5.7% 79,655 -13.2%

Seamless pipe 179,076 12.8% 37,941 42.3%

-10.3%

-26.4%

1,752,839 -13.6%

976,380 -4.2%

H12014

Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption was 5.4 Mt, down by 17.1% y-o-y. While consumption of semi-finished steel down by 11.5% y-o-y.

Flat Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun2014

Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis

Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change

Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347,851 -10.0% 5,677,225 -15.6% 716,790 0.1% 8,308,286 -14.6%

Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,418,830 -6.2% 4,201,499 -19.8% 210,886 -5.2% 5,409,442 -17.1%

Flat Product HR plate Carbon steel 135,330 94,139 -27.8% 3,976 150.5%

Stainless steel 8,989 -20.8% 135 -58.2%

Alloy steel 32,126 97.8% 373 -48.5%

HR sheet Carbon steel 681,563 -48.9% 12,676 4.0%

Carbon steel P&O 499,105 -21.7% 406 48.2%

Stainless steel 151,344 21.5% 18,000 33,233.3%

Alloy steel 710,666 4.7% 26 -78.2%

CR sheet Carbon steel 392,309 -15.9% 14,958 -34.8%

Stainless steel 67,910 -18.8% 31,895 10.8%

Alloy steel 96,807 20.4% 496 -48.8%

Coated Galv.sheet (HDG) 753,193 -22.5% 21,741 54.0%

Galv.sheet (EG) 73,174 -5.4% 13,084 91.2%

Tin plate 117,252 10.1% 65,528 -17.0% 1,242 32.8% 181,538 -1.6%

Tin free 94,139 -13.3% 9,940 -51.3% 56 -48.1% 104,023 -19.3%

Other coated steel 157,647 -1.5% 376,546 -1.9% 20,676 7.5% 513,517 -2.1%

Cold-formed section 910 1.8% 2,152 9.5%

Welded pipe 187,250 35.5% 68,994 -38.1%

-0.8%

-6.8%

5.5%

33.6%

266,100 -8.8%

1,283,500

3,295,070 -20.4%

890,172 1,399,849 -1.5%

147,079 938,621 -17.5%

H12014

Finished Steel Product Q1/2014 Q2/2014 % q-o-q %y-o-y

Production 1,657,322 1,690,529 2.0% 0.2%

Import 2,666,662 3,036,180 13.9% -11.0%

Export 224,007 367,603 64.1% -3.4%

Consumption 4,099,977 4,359,106 6.3% -7.6%

22

Thailand steel demand is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2014


Construction sector expand by 4% to 6%

Automotive sector contract by -4% to -2%

Machinery & Industrial sector expand by 0% to 5%

Appliance sector expand by 1% to 3%

Packaging sector expand by 0% to 1%

Thailand apparent steel use (‘000 Tonnes)

14.012 14.647

16.914 17.698 18,140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

4,744,584

8,865,0359,793,655

16,133,59214,538,239

24,998,627

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Long product Flat product Total steel demand

Thailand Steel Demand is expected to reach 25M tons in 2031

ASEAN Steel Consumption in Y2014 is expected to expand ~ 4 – 5%

Source: SEAISI

20 Major Steel Companies (6/10 and 9/20 = China)



China is the largest Steel ProducerThe Production is more than 750 tons; 7 times of Japan

The Major Steel Producers Year 2013 (Million tons)


Trend of China’s Capacity, Production and Demand (Million tons)

The Excess Capacity increase 387% within 10 Years

China Excess Capacity is increasing dramatically;from 38M tons in 2003 to 185M tons in 2013


China Excess Capacity is larger than Steel DemandChina’s Export growth continuously

Trend of China’s Steel Export Y2000-2013 (Million tons)

Thailand’s Steel Production, Import and Steel Consumption


The Contrast between the increasing Apparent Steel Use and the decreasing Domestic Production


The Apparent Steel Use increase from 10.1M tons in 2009 to 17.7M tons in 2013 while the Import is also increase from 1M tons to 3M tons

Thailand’s Long Product Production, Import and Steel Use

ค ำจ ำกดัควำมรบัผดิข้อมูลในรำยงำน ส่ิงพิมพ์ และเวปไซด์ที่ไ ด้จัดท ำขึ้นมำจำกแหล่งข้อมูลที่เชื่อถือได้ อย่ำงไรก็ตำม สถำบนัเหล็กและเหล็กกล้ำแห่งประเทศไทยไม่รบัประกนัควำมถูกต้อง ครบถ้วนและพอเพยีงของข้อมูลเหล่ำน้ี ควำมเห็นหรอืกำรคำดกำรณ์ใดๆ ต่อเหตุกำรณ์ในอนำคตอำจแตกต่ำงจำกเหตุกำรณ์ทีจ่ะเกดิขึน้จรงิ นอกจำกน้ีสถำบนัเหล็กและเหล็กกล้ำแห่งประเทศไทยขอสงวนสิทธใินกำรเปลีย่นแปลงและแก้ไขข้อมลู รวมถงึควำมเห็นและกำรประมำณกำรณ์ใดๆ โดยไม่ต้องแจ้งล่วงหน้ำ

DisclaimerThe information in the above report, publication and website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information. Any opinions or forecasts regarding future events may differ from actual events or results. In addition, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand reserves the right to make changes and corrections

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Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailandthai-german-cooperation.info/download/20141001_pdp_03_isit_steel... · Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in