Current Account Balance

8/3/2019 Current Account Balance

1/31

Macro Focus

Real challenge lies aheadEconomics

CBT announced August C/A deficit at USD4.0bn pretty much in

line with consensus. Announced deficit, which was some 31.1%

higher compared to a year ago period, was slightly higher than the

USD3.9bn market consensus and our more optimistic USD4.0bn

forecast. With the cumulative USD0.4bn downward revision in the C/A

deficit for January-July period year-to-date figure came to USD54.3bn,

i.e. 102.4% higher compared to the first eight months of 2010. 12-

month rolling deficit crawled up to a fresh record high of USD75.1bn

with August data, pointing to a further slowdown in the pace of

increase but still high enough to hit 9.9% of our YE11 GDP estimate.

Tourism revenues remaining short of our estimate pushed C/A

deficit slightly above our call. August data shows the retreat in

goods deficit continued to USD7.1bn in tandem with the lowest foreign

trade deficit of last 6 months. Annual growth dropping to 25.3% on that

front from the 92% spike year-to-date is a positive indicator in our

opinion, but the role of base effect shall not be disregarded. Services

balance at USD3.4bn surplus was quite strong, but a bit weaker than

what we anticipated as the USD3.0bn net tourism revenue generation

was some USD0.2bn short of our call.

FDI sustained high growth, while portfolio capital recorded the

first net outflow of 2011. The USD0.9bn net FDI inflow points to a53% annual surge and brings the 12 month rolling sum to USD12.4bn,

highest level of last 29 months. The global financial turmoil in August

led the foreign investors to reduce their securities portfolio in capital in

Turkey, and they sold USD0.6bn of their equity holdings in addition to

USD0.8bn of domestic debt instruments. The amount of currency and

deposits Turkish banking sector holds abroad shows the second

consecutive month of heavy outflow with USD2.0bn, only 10% of

which was covered by the repatriated assets of the corporate sector.

Foreigners deposits continued to substitute banking sectors

foreign borrowing. For the second consecutive month net external

funding the banking sector could raise was insignificant at USD0.1bn,

while they succeeded to replace the maturing short-term credit withlong-term. Half billion external funding corporate sector brought in was

also in line with the previous months, and continued to rely on short-

term. Boost of non-residents deposits in the Turkish banking system

to the tune of the USD2.3bn saved the day in a month, when the

CBTs reserves were depleted by USD4.4bn.

Risks are slightly on the downside for our YE11 C/A deficit

forecast of USD77.7bn. We still think that the economic downturn will

be softer than anticipated by many, and the international energy prices

seem to be resisting a sizeable downward correction. In the current

setting, we choose to cut our forecast by an insignificant 2% to

USD76.1bn to reflect the revisions to earlier data and slight softening

in the dataflow. However, the major challenge will be bringing thedeficit down to sustainable levels rather than stabilizing at around 9-

10% of GDP, and the delayed MTP shall give a credible road map. .

Aug -11 Yo Y (%) J an -Aug -11 Y tD (%)CURRENT ACCOUNT -4.0 31.1% -54.3 102.4%

Goods -7.1 25.3% -61.4 92.0%

o/w Exports f.o.b 11.6 29.7% 91.9 22.1%

Imports f.o.b. -17.6 23.0% -150.1 39.6%

Services 3.4 20.3% 11.7 32.3%

o/w Travel 3.0 7.8% 11.8 20.4%

Income -0.5 47.3% -5.6 23.8%

o/w Net Int. Payment -0.3 31.0% -2.4 -17.6%

Current Transfers 0.2 51.4% 1.0 24.2%

o/w Workers Remittances 0.1 -6.5% 0.6 7.9%

-4.0

-3.9

-75.1

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

C/A Consensus 12M C/A-RHS

Aug -11 YoY (% ) Jan -Au g-11 Yt D (%)

CAPITAL AND FIN. ACC. 4.4 334.4% 44.6 81.6%

FDI 0.9 53.0% 8.6 113.6%

Portfolio Investment -1.5 -157.9% 17.8 26.7%

Other Investment 0.6 -48.2% 22.9 38.1%

Reserve Assets 4.4 -232.1% -4.7 -53.5%

NET ERRORS AND OMM. -0.4 -121.3% 9.6 330.5%

21.7%

-13.8%

-19.9%

0.0% 2.3%

12.6%

50%

15.8%

-2.2%

23.3%

7.0%

16.6%10.3%

-2.0%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug-11 Jan-Aug-11

11th of October 2011

Levent [email protected]

+90 (212) 317 69 33

Current Account (USD bn)

Balance of Payments (USD bn)

C/A Balance (USD bn)

Selected C/A Items (as % of C/A Deficit)
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/31

Macro Focus, 11t

of October 2011

C/A vs. Non-energy C/A (12M Rolling)

Composition of Services Balance (12M Rolling)

C/A Balance as % of GDP

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

C/A Non Energy C/A

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Tourism Non-tourism

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

*As of YE11 GDP Forecast


3/31

Macro Focus, 11t

of October 2011

12M Rolling Portfolio Capital Inflow (USD bn)

12M Rolling Foreign Direct Investment

12M Rolling Long Term Ext. Debt Roll Over Ratio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%70%

80%

90%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

USD as % of C/A def. (RHS)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Equities Fixed Income (RHS)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

Banks Corporate (RHS)


4/31

Erste Group Research Short note

Analyst: Ozlem [email protected]

The worst is over...

The August balance of payments generated a USD 4bn deficit, higher than our expectation of USD 3.5bn, butbroadly in line with the market consensus. The 12-month rolling deficit rose to USD 75.1bn (10.1%), up from

USD 74.2bn (10% of GDP). It is good to see the non-energy component of the current account deficit flattening

at USD 32.6bn in August. We expect it to decline further in the coming months, while the marked slowdown in

the overall current account deficit will start as of October.

Current Account Balance (12-month rolling; USD bn)

Source: CBT, Erste Group Research

-32.6

-75.1

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan-05 Aug -05 M ar -0 6 Oct-06 M ay-07 Dec -0 7 Ju l-08 Fe b-09 Se p-09 Apr -10 Nov-1 0 Ju n-11

Current Account Balance (exc. energy)

Current Account Balance

On the financing side, however, the August turbulence seems to have taken its toll on inflows, in the

sense that there have been no capital inflows and the current account was fully financed with reserve

use of USD 4.4bn. Portfolio investments comprising equity inflows and TL-securities held by non-residents generated USD 1.5bn worth of outflows on a monthly basis. However, based on the ISE data

regarding monthly foreign transactions, portfolio inflows are likely to recover in September, thanks to

the positive deviation of the Turkish market from its peers in September, mainly

upgrade of T rating on TL debt and increased expectations of a foreign currency upgrade. Other

good news was that the short-term liabilities were very weak at USD 0.2bn, while FDI was not quite

weak, generating USD 0.9bn in monthly inflows.

On a 12-month rolling basis, capital inflows in August declined to USD 70.5bn (from USD 74.9bn), of

which 20.7% came from FDI and long-term corporate borrowing. This ratio was 18.6% in July. It is good

to see FDI and long-term corporate borrowing rising, while it is still far from sufficient in terms of

generating a reliable financing structure for the current account deficit. As for the main hot money items,

portfolio inflows in 12-month rolling terms declined to USD 19.8bn, from USD 24bn in July. The main

Turkey: Balance of Payments

Short note Fixed Income Research October 11, 2011


5/31

Erste Group Research Short note

cost of this weaker performance in the capital account has been the decline in CBT reserves, which

came down to USD 7.4bn, from USD 15.2bn as of August, in 12-month rolling terms.

Capital Account and Corporate Borrowing (12-month rolling,USD bn)

Source: CBT, Erste Group Research

2.3

70.5

12.4

-25

-5

15

35

55

75

95

Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11

Capital Account

FDI

Corporate LT Borrowing

The moderation in the pace of the current account deficit apparently started in August and is likely to

continue in the coming months. We maintain our view that the end-year current account deficit will

come down to 8.5% of GDP, from its current level of around 10%. Despite the deceleration in capital

inflows in August and the less than rosy picture for September with massive amount of outflows from

the bond market, we do not expect it to turn into a crisis situation for Turkey in 2011, with a continuous

reversal of inflows and sudden economic contraction.


6/31

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7/31

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8/31

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9/31

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10/31

10/10/2011

: Burada yer alan bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri . hizmeti; kurumlar, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ileimzalanacak . Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede . Bu mali durumunuz ile risk

ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun . Bu sayfalarda yorum, haber veyanedeniyle ortaya ticari veya Halk Menkul A. . sorumlu . Buradaki ve yorumlar sayfa bilgilendirme . Rapor

resim, analiz ve sunumlar izin veya .

Uzman

Tel: (0212) 314 81 83 [email protected]

Cari Mart 9,7 milyar$ ilebazda rekor seviyeye sonra

gerilemeye . Temmuz cari5,32 milyar$ olarak

.

olarak caribu yana

politika ve mevsimsel olarakartan turizm gelirleri etkili .

Ancak 12 olarak cariartmaya devam . Temmuz

12 cari 74,56milyar$ ile tarihi seviyededir.

bir miktar ivme kaybedenekonomik aktivite ve turizm gelirlerinin etkisi ile

cari 4milyar$ .

Piyasa beklentisi de ortalama 4,03 milyar$ .Piyasada cari beklentileri 3,5milyar$ ile 4,7 milyar$ .


11/31


12/31


13/31

LTFEN NEML AIKLAMALAR N SON SAYFAYA BAKINIZ

Beklentilere paralel A ustos verilerine gre 12 aylk cari ak US$ 75.1 milyar...Gerekle me: US$ 3.96 milyar, ING Bank Tahmini: US$ 4.4 milyar, Piyasa Tahmini: US$ 3.9 milyar

-80,000

-70,000

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0Oca ub Mar Nis May Haz Tem A u Eyl Eki Kas Ara

2009 2010 2011

Kaynak: TCMB, ING Bank

US$milyon

Cari DengeyeOran

US$milyon

Cari DengeyeOran

Cari Denge -3,964 100% -75,142 100%D Ticaret Dengesi -7,093 179% -85,877 114%

Toplam Kaytl Sermaye Giri i 1,741 44% 63,183 84%Net Do rudan Yatrmlar 860 22% 12,375 16%

Yabanclarn Net Menkul Kymet Almlar -1,393 35% 14,751 20%Hisse Senedi -546 14% 914 1%

Bono -847 21% 13,837 18%

Net D Borlanma*- Bankalar 90 2% 18,328 24%Uzun Vade 1,209 30% 3,930 5%

Ksa Vade -1,119 28% 14,398 19%

Net D Borlanma*- Reel Sektr 498 13% 4,563 6%

Uzun Vade 161 4% 2,258 3%Ksa Vade 337 9% 2,305 3%

Net D Borlanma*-Hazine -857 22% -840 1%Uzun Vade 0 0% 2,207 3%

Ksa Vade -857 22% -3,047 4%

Bankalardaki Mevduat 2,314 58% 2,376 3%Di er 229 6% 1 1,630 15%

Rezerv De i im 2,651 67% -125 0%Bankalar -1,778 45% 7,313 10%

Resmi 4,429 112% -7,438 10%Net Hata Noksan -428 11% 12,084 16%Di er Sektrler Uzun Vadeli Kredi evrim Oran 107% 109%Bankalar Uzun Vadeli Kredi evrim Oran 286% 147%K sa Vadeli Ticari Kredi evrim Oran 116% 107%*Ticari krediler hari 'Mutlak de er Kaynak: TCMB

A u 1 1Seilmi demeler Dengesi Kalemleri - Kmlatif Geli im

Eyl 10 - A u 11

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

U zu n Vad el i F in ansm an Ksa Vadeli Finansman-sa

D

E

M

E

L

E

R

D

E

N

G

E

S

11.10.11

A ustosta cari ak US$ 3.96 milyar ile US$ 3.9 milyar olan

piyasa beklentisine paralel, US$ 4.4 milyar olan tahminimizin

ise (genel olarak turizm gelirlerindeki sapma nedeniyle)

altnda gerekle ti. Yllk bazda cari aktaki art belirgin

olarak yava larken A ustos sonu itibaryla US$ 75.1 milyara

ykselerek yeni bir rekor krd. US$ 7.1 milyarla son be

aydaki ortalama dzeyinin altnda kalsa da aylk cari akta

yksek seyrine devam eden d ticaret a yine belirleyici

oldu, turizm gelirlerinin mevsimsel olarak artmasna ba l

olarak hizmetler dengesi ise US$ 3.4 milyar fazla verdi.Ancak net turizm gelirlerinin art nn nceki yln ayn ayna

gre %7.8le nceki dnemlerin altnda kalmas dikkat ekti.

Finansman tarafnda, A ustosta sermaye giri lerinin ksa ve

uzun vadede srasyla US$ 385 milyon ve US$ 1.4 milyar

olmas, sermaye giri lerinin vade kompozisyonunda aylk

bazda uzun vade lehinde greli bir iyile me oldu una i aret

etmektedir. Yine de 2010 yl boyunca artan ksa vadeli

kaynaklarn toplam finansman iinde pay 2011 iinde

ksmen azalsa da a rl n korumaya devam etmektedir.

Uzun vadeli kaynak giri inde belirleyici kalemlerden net

do rudan yatrmlarda A ustosta net US$ 860 milyon giri

olurken, son dnemde nem kazanan ve 2011in ilk beaynda bankalarn US$ 2.3 milyar finansman sa lamalarna

imkan tanyan yurtd nda tahvil ihrac kaleminde A ustosta

giri gzlenmedi. Ksa vadeli fon ak nda ise, finansal

piyasalarda risk i tahnn azald A ustos aynda bono ve

hisse senedi piyasalarndan toplamda US$ 1.3 milyar k

grld. Buna paralel olarak, ylba ndan bu yana

yabanclarn net menkul kymet almlar US$ 11.5 milyara

geriledi. A ustosta bankalar US$ 1.1 milyarlk ksa vadeli

bor demesi yaparken, bankalarn mevduatlarnda US$ 2.3

milyarlk art gzlendi.

te yandan, genelde pozitif olan net hata ve noksan

kaleminde A ustosta US$ 428 milyonluk k olurken, sekiz

aylk toplam rakam US$ 9.6 milyar dzeyinde kald. Toplam

rezervler ise A ustosta US$ 2.7 milyar azalrken (resmi

rezervlerde US$ 4.4 milyarla Kasm 2000den bu yana en

byk d ), Ocak-A ustos dneminde ise US$ 5.3 milyar

(resmi rezervlerde US$ 4.7 milyar art ) ykseldi.

A ustosta yllk bazda bankalarn uzun vadeli bor evrim

oran %147, reel sektrn uzun vadeli bor evrim oran

%109 ve ksa vadeli ticari kredilerin evrim oran %107 oldu.

Ekonomik aktivitede yava lamann son veri ak yla

netle ti i d nld nde, birikimli cari a n, ykselen

kurun da etkisiyle 2011in kalan dneminde kademeli olarak

yava layaca n ve yl sonunda US$ 70 milyarla GSYHnin

%9.4 dzeyinde olaca n d nyoruz. Muhammet Mercan


14/31

Current account deficit presents better outlook

The current account deficit posted US$4bn deficit in August. It was in line with market expectations.

Since July, the current account deficit has improved. In fact, August deficit was the lowest deficit

registered so far in 2011. The deficit was expected to normalize with the help of measures taken in 1H11

in order to limit loan growth by the Central Bank of Turkey and the Banking Regulatory Agency. Yet,

unfavourable base year effect caused the annual deficit to increase from US$74.2bn in July to US$75.1bn

in August. We expect annual deficit to decline to US$73.5bn (9.6% of GDP) at the end of 2011 withfavourable base effect in November and December. We expect the CA deficit to decline to 6.7% of GDP

(US$55bn) in 2012.

Signs of slow down in economic activity (seasonally adjusted industrial production declined 2.6% MoM

in August, highest monthly decline since December 2009) suggests that the current account deficit will

further improve in the coming months. In fact, problems in Europe might seriously affect Turkeys

economy and GDP growth might fall sharply. Therefore, on the one hand, the Central Bank removed 25%

loan growth ceiling on the banking sector and the Bank reduced reserve requirements on both foreign

exchange and TL liabilities. Further reserve requirement ratio reductions by the Central Bank may beexpected if a risk of contraction appears in economic activity.

Improvement in the current account deficit was in net non energy imports. While annual net energy

imports increased from US$41.4bn in July to US$42.6bn in August, net non energy imports declined from

US$32.8bn in July to US$32.6bn in August. It was the first decline in annual series of net non energy

imports since October 2009 (see chart).

Current Account Deficit (Annual, US$bn)Component of Annual Current Account

Deficit (Annua l, US$bn)

0.0

5.0

10.015.0

20.025.0

30.035.0

40.0

45.050.0

55.060.065.0

70.0

75.080.085.090.0

-50.0

-45.0

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Net Energy Import Net Non-energy Import

Source: Central Bank Source: Central Bank, Ak Investment

MACRO NOTEBalance of Payments

October 11, 2011Hakan Aklar +90 212 334 9461

[email protected]


15/31

CAD Financing (Annual, US$bn) Net Error and Omission (Annual, US$bn)

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Portfolio and Short-term Borrowing (LHS)

FDI and Long Term Borrowing (LHS)-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Source: Central Bank Source: Central Bank

On the financing side, we observe that the current account deficit in August was met with decline in

reserves. On the other hand, annual figures show that portfolio and short term financing declined while

FDI and long term borrowing increased (see chart). Yet, FDI and long term borrowing are still very low

when compared with pre crisis levels. Net error and omission was also high at US$12bn annually; in the

medium term, it should be expected to normalize (see chart above).


16/31


17/31

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18/31

- -

- -

- -

- --

---

- - --

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- - --

- -

-

-

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19/31

Sales Contacts:

Emir Tayman (+90 212 370 6806)[email protected]

Ekspres Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S. Buyukdere Cad. No: 106 Kat: 15 34394 Esentepe, Istanbul TURKEYThis document has been produced by Ekspres Invest Research Department for purposes of information and cannot be construed as investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell any securities that may be mentioned in the body of the document. Theinformation contained herein is subject to change without notice. Ekspres Invest, its parent or affiliated companies may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investmentadvisory services for those companies.

Balance of Payments

Turkey / macroeconomy August 2011

October 11, 2011 Where has all the financing gone?

The C/A deficit came in at US$4.0bn in August, overlapping the consensus yet

lower than our forecast at US$4.3bn. The tourism revenues remained weak as we

expected, while we are surprised to see the transportation services generating a high net

revenue of US$0.5bn. Even though the deficit continued to deteriorate in annual

comparison, the August deficit was the most benign number in almost a year.

The financing outlook continued to deteriorate and the foreign fund flows fell

short of financing the deficit. The official reserves declined by US$4.4bn in August

and appeared as the key financing source, followed by some US$2.0bn increase in the

foreign residents deposits at the house banks. On the other hand, the portfolio inflows

which had contributed some US$19.4bn in January-July period suffered a net outflow of

US$1.5bn in August, first visible outflow since September last year. Similarly, the

unregistered capital flows gave a negative print of US$0.4bn in August, after contributing

a notable US$10.1bn to the financing of the external deficit in the preceding seven

months. There was also a net outflow of US$2.1bn short term funds (including the short

term credits, trade credits and assets held abroad) after US$3.6bn outflow in July,

whereas the long term loans of the private and banking sector remained low at

US$0.7bn.

The 12-month rolling C/A deficit rose to US$75.1bn (9.5% of GDP) as of August

from US$74.2bn deficit in July. On the other hand, the improvement in the non-energy

deficit already started as the 12-month deficit in that segment remained unchanged MoM

at US$32.6bn (4.1% of GDP). Based on our estimates for the seasonally adjusted

figures, the monthly non-energy deficit seems to have been surfacing lower around

US$1.5bn over the last two months after peaking at US$4.2bn in May-June. The data

confirms that the external deficit has been abating in line with the slower economic

activity.

The share of the short term and portfolio inflows in financing the current account

deficit has been retreating, yet the long term financing instruments fail to improve

enough to compensate this. We reckon that the portfolio and short term inflows (such

as deposits and credits) financed 70% of the 12-month C/A deficit as of August vs. 109%

in January and 85% in May. On the other hand, the FDI and long term loans finance

24% of the 12-month deficit in August, up from 8% in January and 17% in May. While

the shift in the composition of the financing instruments is healthy, the deceleration of the

overall inflows resulted in a weaker reserve outlook for the CBT.

We maintain our US$74.3bn (9.6% GDP) C/A deficit forecast for the year-end.

However, our projections show that the 12-month rolling C/A deficit is set to widen before

it gets narrower in October, the earliest. The tight relation between the pace of economic

activity and currency on one side and the imports on the other side leaves little doubt

that the import demand will continue to ease and put a downside pressure on the

external deficit. However, export performance is more ambiguous and the weakness in

European economies may hinder the rebalancing of the economy.

Nilufer Sezgin

[email protected]

+90 212 336 5193
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


20/31

Balance of Payments: August 2011 October, 2011

Ekspres Invest Page 2

FIGURE 1 Balance of Payments (12-month rolling)

Source: CBT, Ekspres Research

Current Account (US$bn) External Financing (US$bn)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

12.01 03.03 06.04 09.05 12.06 03.08 06.09 09.10

Current Account Balance

Non-energy Current Account Balance

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

12.01 03.03 06.04 09.05 12.06 03.08 06.09 09.10

Portfolio inflows, deposits and other short term

inflows

Long term inflows and FDI


21/31

Adres: - (0212) 314 81 81 Fax: (0212) 221 31 81Tel (0212) 314 81 07

11 Ekim 2011

& Son

Dengesi; Son

Grafik 2: Ay

Sermaye

Ya

Net HataNoksan & Cari

emlerDengesi

C piyasa beklentisi ve beklentimiz paralelinde 3,96 milyar$ olarak i. (Piyasa Beklentisi: 4,03 milyar$; Beklentimiz: 4 milyar$)

rekor

Ocak- ise %102,4

Kaynak:www.tcmb.gov.tr;CEIC Data

...nda

gerOcak- 17,8

860 milyon$ olarakOcak-

587 milyon$

Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr; CEIC Data

Net hata ve noksan kaleminde ...Y


Uzman

Tel: (0212) 314 81 83

[email protected]
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/


22/31

Adres: - (0212) 314 81 81 Fax: (0212) 221 31 81Tel (0212) 314 81 07

11 Ekim 2011

Grafik 4:Ba

12 a

147,4%

da Temmuz ki %107,29 seviyesinden,%108,65 s


Ancak
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/


23/31

TCMB demeler dengesi istatistiklerine gre, A ustos aynda

cari ak, piyasa beklentilerine paralel 4 milyar ABD dolar

seviyesinde gerekle ti. Son veriler ile birlikte yln 8 aynda

cari ak 54.3 milyar ABD dolarna ykselirken ile yllk

landrlm cari ak rakam, 75.1 milyar ABD dolarna ula t.

Temmuz aynda oldu u gibi A ustos aynda da mevsimsel

olarak hizmet gelirlerindeki art

n olumlu etkisi hissedildi.

Ba ar [email protected]

+90 212 334 5259

ARA TIRMA

lgili ayda net enerji ithalat d cari ak rakamnn gerilemeye devam etti i gzleniyor. yle ki, A ustos aynda cari

a n net enerji ithalatndan arndrld nda 267 milyon ABD dolar seviyesinde gerekle ti i gzleniyor, ki bu rakam

Ekim 2010dan bu yana gzlenen en olumlu tabloya i aret ediyor. 3 aylk ortalamalar da a n Kasm 2010dan bu yana

en d k seviyesine geriledi ini gsteriyor. Yllklandrlm rakamlara bakld nda da net enerji ithalat d cari a n

14 ay sonra ilk kez gerileyerek 32.6 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde gerekle ti i grlyor.

Detaylar Olumlu Sinyal Veriyor...

demeler Dengesi A ustos 2011

Do rudan Yabanc Yatrm ve Portfy Yatrmlar

A ustos aynda 860 milyon ABD dolar tutarnda do rudan ya

banc yatrm giri i izlenirken 12 aylk rakamlara bakld nda

rakam 12.4 milyar ABD dolar

seviyesinde gerekle ti.

Portfy yatrmlarna bakld nda ilgili ayda hisse senetleri veD BSlerde gzlenen satcl seyre ba l olarak 1.5 milyar ABD

dolar tutarnda k izlendi. Yllklandrlm rakamlarabakld nda portfy yatrmlar 20 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde

gerekle ti.

Do rudan yabanc yatrmlar ve portfy yatrmlarndaki seyre ba l olarak geni tanml demeler dengesinde A ustosaynda 4.6 milyar ABD dolar ak gzlenirken yllklandrlm rakamlara bakld nda ak 43 milyar ABD dolarna kt.

Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

-80000

-70000

-60000

-50000

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

Cari lemler denges i

(oniki aylk, sol eksen)

Cari lemler Dengesi

(aylk, sa eksen)

Kaynak: TCMB, TU K, TSKB Ara trma

Kaynak: TCMB, TU K, TSKB Ara trma

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

demeler Dengesi( 12aylkrakamlar)(milyardolar)

Do rudan Yabanc Yatrml ar P or tf y Yatrmlar (sa eksen)

Milyon USD

2010

A ustos

2011

A ustosDe i im OnikiAylk

%

Cari lemler Hesab 3,024 3,964 31% 75,142

D ticaret Dengesi 5,662 7,093 25% 85,877

Hizmetler Dengesi 2,828 3,403 20% 17,474

Gelir Dengesi 332 489 47% 8,391

Cari Transferler 142 215 51% 1,652

Sermayeve Finans Hesab 1,011 4,392 334% 63,058

SermayeH esab 22 0FinansHesaplar 1,033 4,392 325% 63,066

Net Hata Noksan 2,013 428 121% 12,084

Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB Ara trma

demeler Dengesi Gerekle meleri

5,000.00

4,000.00

3,000.00

2,000.00

1,000.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

75,000.00

65,000.00

55,000.00

45,000.00

35,000.00

25,000.00

15,000.00

5,000.00

5,000.00

15,000.00

25,000.00

Net Enerji thalat HariCari Denge (Yllklandrlm )

Aylk Net Enerji thalat Hari Cari Denge(3 aylk ortalama)


24/31


25/31

MAKROEKONOM /demeler Dengesi-A USTOS

Sevgl Dzgn [email protected]

ARA TIRMA BLM

11 EK M 2011

TCMB verilerine gre A ustos ay nda cari i lemler a , piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak 3.964

milyon USD olarak gerekle ti. 2010 y l n n Ocak-A ustos dneminde 26.814 milyon USD a k

veren cari i lemler hesab , 2011 y l n n ayn dneminde %102 art gstererek, 54.261 milyonUSD a k vermi tir. Cari i lemler a n n artmas nda, Ocak-A ustos dneminde d ticaret

a n n bir nceki y la gre 29.432 milyon USD tutar nda artarak 61.435 milyon USDye ula mas

etkili olmu tur.

Hizmetler dengesi kalemi, 2011 y l OcakA ustos dneminde nceki y l n ayn dnemine gre

%32 oran nda artarak 11.678 milyon USD fazla vermi tir. A ustos ay nda, hizmetler dengesialt nda bulunan turizm gelirleri 3.037 milyon USDye ykselerek cari a n azalmas n sa lam t r.

2010 y l n n OcakA ustos dneminde Sermaye ve Finans hesaplar na 24.574 milyon USD olan

sermaye giri i, bu y l n ayn dneminde %82 oran nda art la 44.618 milyon USD ye ykselmi tir.Bu y l n OcakA ustos dneminde portfy yat r mlar nceki y l n ayn dnemine gre %27

oran nda artarak 17.831 milyon USD olmu tur. A ustos ay nda ise 1.519 milyon USD kgrlmektedir. A ustosta hisse senetlerinde 546 milyon USD, bor senetlerinde de 790 milyon

USD net yabanc sermaye k olmu tur. Net hata ve noksan kaleminden A ustos ay nda -428

milyon USD k gerekle mi tir.

Cari i lemler a nda Mart ay ndan sonra ba layan iyile me, A ustos ay nda ivme kazand . Son

ayl k verilerde gerilemenin srd cari i lemler a nda, y ll k bazdaki verilerde de art n h z

kesti i grlmektedir. Y l n nc eyre inde a klanan makro ekonomik verilerde, i talebin veithalat n gerilemeye ba lad n n anla lm olmas nedeniyle, y l n geri kalan nda cari i lemler

a nda iyile menin srmesini beklemekteyiz. Ayr ca son a klanan TCMB Para Politikas Kurulu

toplant zetlerinde, nmzdeki dnemde cari i lemler dengesinde belirgin bir iyile meninolaca n n tahmin edilmesi ve orta/uzun vadede cari i lemler dengesinin makul dzeylerde

tutulabilmesi iin yap sal dzenlemelere devam edilece inin a klanmas , iyile menin srece ine

i aret etmektedir.

Grafik: Ayl k Bazda Cari A k Verileri

Ca ri A k, Aylk (M ilyon USD)

-12.000

-10.000

-8.000

-6.000

-4.000

-2.000

0

2.000

Kaynak: TCMB (www.tcmb.gov.tr)Tabl2: Sermaye
mailto:[email protected]://www.tcmb.gov.tr%29/http://www.tcmb.gov.tr%29/mailto:[email protected]


26/31

Dikkat: Burada yer alan yat r m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat r m dan manl kapsamnda de ildir. Yat r m dan manl hizmeti; arac kurumlar, portfy

ynetim irketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m teri arasnda imzalanacak yat r m dan manl szle mesi erevesinde sunulmaktad r. Burada

yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar n ki isel gr lerine dayanmaktad r. Bu gr ler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinizeuygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayan larak yat r m karar verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonular do urmayabilir.

Tablo: DEMELER DENGES

2010 2011 2011

Ocak-A#ustos Ocak-A#ustos A#ustosCAR (LEMLER HESABI -26.814 -54.261 -3.964

DI( T CARET DENGES -32.003 -61.435 -7.093

Genel Mal Ticareti -32.218 -58.182 -5.976

hracat f.o.b. 75.282 91.940 11.645

thalat f.o.b. -107.500 -150.122 -17.621

H ZMETLER DENGES 8.828 11.678 3.403

Turizm 9.834 11.845 3.037

GEL R DENGES -4.483 -5.552 -489

CAR TRANSFERLER 844 1.048 215

SERMAYE VE F NANS HESAPLARI 24.574 44.618 4.392

F NANS HESAPLARI 24.622 44.618 4.392

Do#rudan Yat?r?mlar 4.014 8.573 860

Yurtd?@?nda -1.134 -1.540 -91

Yurtiinde 5.148 10.113 951

Portfy Yat?r?mlar? 14.075 17.831 -1.519Varl?klar -1.007 2.556 -183

Bankalar 254 3.015 -190

Di#er Sektrler -1.261 -459 7

Ykmllkler 15.082 15.275 -1.336

Hisse Senetleri 1.336 -1.218 -546

Bor Senetleri 13.746 16.493 -790

Genel Hkmet 12.723 13.970 -847

Yurtii 9.327 12.449 -847

Di#er Yat?r?mlar 16.566 22.876 622

Varl?klar 3762 6562 -2385

Ykmllkler 12804 16314 3007

Rezerv Varl?klar -10033 -4662 4429

Resmi Rezervler -10033 -4662 4429

Dviz Varl?klar? -18 1.738 324

Menkul K?ymetler -10.015 -6.400 4.105

NET HATA NOKSAN 2.240 9.643 -428

(Milyon ABD Dolar)

Kaynak: TCMB (www.tcmb.gov.tr )


27/31

The August CAD at USD 3.96bn was not a surprise for the market; though the monthly deficit slowingfrom the first seven months average of USD 7.2bn added to the positive sentiment. In YtD terms, January-August CAD at USD 54.3bn is more than the double of last years level of USD 26.8bn. Despite the start ofmoderation in monthly CAD figures, the 12M CAD moved up to USD 75.2bn versus USD 74.6bn in July- which isa strong widening at a magnitude of 149% yoy or to 9.6% of GDP.

Out of the USD 75.2bn 12M CAD, while the surge in the energy part continues reaching USD

42.4bn in August, the crucial part- that is the non-energy part is stable at USD 32.5-33.0bn since

June. This of course is good news. As all those who are interested in investing in Turkey know by heart

by now, excessively strong domestic demand has fuelled CAD to unsustainable highs close to 10% of

GDP.

A noteon tourism sector though: revenues at USD 3.0bn in August it has reached its yearly peak

mainly due to seasonal factors but it is only 7.8% above that of last years which is below the 27.5% yoy

growth recorded in earlier seven months of the year.

As for the funding side, the August bears a new story which is not a very good one. To begin with

the CBTs official FX reserves recorded a strong USD 4.4bn drop which carries the Ytd decline to USD4.7bn. Thus, the CBTs reserve decline with the bulk happened in August fully reflects the change of

season on a global scale and especially in Europe. In fact, theforeign residents holdings in the local

banks increased by a net of USD 1.98bn which is also another evidence on the effect of the rising

uncertainties that has roots in the European financial system. While there was a small USD 0.4bn

outflow from the unidentified net errors and omissions (Ytd inflows high at USD 10bn), the selloff in

the markets resulted in USD 1.5bnportfolio investments outflows from Turkey that pulls down the Ytd

inflows to USD 17.8bn. Though we should note that flows to the equity and the bond markets recovered

again starting from mid-September; sentiment with regards to the EU debt crisis plays a great role here.

Despite the liquidity problems abroad, Turkishprivate sector companies managed to keep their

external debt roll-over ratio above 100% at 107% in August which however compares unfavorably with

the first seven months average of 125%.Net FDI at USD 0.9bn in August -is not good and is not bad-

carries the Ytd figure to USD 8.6bn that accounts to a weak 16% of the overall USD 54.3bn headline

CAD.

Until the end of the year, the monthly drop in the CAD will continue when compared with the

January-July 2011 period. Yet, the moderation will start feeding the 12M CAD figure starting from

1Q12 as we expect an upfront correction in CAD/GDP getting tangible throughout 1H12. Thus, in 12M

terms, until the end of the year CAD is to float within USD 74bn USD 75bn range. Our expectation for

YE 2011 CAD is at USD 74bn which would be corresponding to 9.8% of GDP.

For 2012, we expect Turkeys GDP growth to sharply slowing down to 3% vicinity from around 7% this

year. With a CAD contraction of approx USD 20bn for next year, we estimate CAD at USD 54bn at

the end of 2012 from USD 74bn at the end of 2011. As percentage of GDP, Turkeys CAD to GDP will

be easing to 6.8% by the end of next year from 9.8% this year, in our view. While such a drop will be the

byproduct of 25% weakness in the TRY basket since November 2010; no doubt the scarce external

funding would also take its toll on Turkeys CAD trends.

Regards,


28/31

mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]://www.unicreditmenkul.com.tr/http://www.unicreditmenkul.com.tr/mailto:[email protected]


29/31

2011

| 0216 444 1 2631

3,9 milyar dolar ile 3,8 milyar dolar olan beklentilere

paralel Krizden

,

Y

ticaret dengesini r gesini olumsuz etk

2010 i etkileri

yla,

sekiz 1 ini

Milyon Dolar

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Ocak -3.062 -6.143 2.026 4.541 401 -202 1.915 2.239 1 .824 1.602

-2.708 -6.092 750 5.168 441 603 -2.205 2.279 -277 924

Mart -4.292 -9.630 6.618 8.757 287 2.687 2.846 4.816 -550 873

Nisan -4.386 -7.671 11.244 8.024 411 530 4.639 5.333 -2.255 -353

-3.026 -7.879 2.689 3.961 181 765 323 492 2.081 3.918

Haziran -3.463 -7.597 3.633 5.759 556 665 -682 2.158 -767 1.838

Temmuz -3.613 -5.285 3.429 4.016 1.173 2.665 3.981 2.033 834 1.269

-3.077 -3.964 4.739 4.392 559 860 2.937 -1.519 1.712 -428

-3.903 3.303 361 -245 -628

Ekim -3.441 5.361 798 1.972 -300

-6.057 6.019 734 1.054 2.641

-7.529 9.410 1.912 -276 385

-48.557 -54.261 59.221 44.618 7.814 8.573 16.259 17.831 4.700 9.643

Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr


30/31

2011

| 0216 444 1 2632

milyar 4 milyar

Bu ge milyar 432 milyon

milyar 435 milyo Hizmetler Dengesi kalemi

17 milyar

milyar 264

y

milyar

milyar

milyar 965 milyon ABD milyar 113

milyar 540 milyon ABD do

milyar 218 milyon AB

toplam 12 milyar

sekiz ayda 210 milyon ABD dolar

milyar

milyar

milyar


31/31

2011

milyar 584

milyar

milyar 720 milyon ABD

milyar 581 milyon

milyar milyar 197

ay milyar milyar

662 milyon

Documents

Current Account Balance