Cumulative effects and the PCH

Presentation to the PCMB Oct. 28 2011Don Russell

What are we currently doing?• Input refinements:

– Can now generate forage quality, forage quantity, diet, activity from annual climate data

– Have a working version of scenario developer – includes development and climate change

– Working on building in ability to move animals into different regions, habitats and re-generating diet and activity

• Model refinements:– Allow for multi-year runs– Allow us to model “risk’ – build in natural variability – stochastic

• Exercising the model– Comparing output to available validation data– How do initial body weight and current year’s weather interact with climate

change and development exposure – see examples

Near future tasks

• Resource Selection Function:– A way to allocate animals into habitats depending on

development, climate– Chris Johnson, UNBC, has vegetation map and footprint

map that Shawn provided– We will work with him to set up the analysis

• Caribou calculator– Work with Craig Nicolsen to translate output from Energy-

protein model to feed into population dynamics and harvest

Initial body condition

Climate change

Development

Current years weather

Reproductive statusScenario Builder

• accumulated GDD June 15 to July15 in previous year - dictates cottongrass flowering – impacts diet

•insect insects for warbles and mosquitoes (based on temp/wind) – impacts activity

•Mushroom index – biomass of mushrooms – based on previous May rainfall and current June rainfall – impacts diet, late summer protein source

Current years weather

HOW IS WEATHER HANDLED IN THE MODEL?

Model user can now pick any year, decade, best, worst, year for the PCH 1979-2009

SETTING INITIAL CONDITIONS

•target birth weight is maximum birth weight of calf if resources unlimited•body weight and proportion fat used to calculate initial condition of cow•Can set if cow is pregnant or lactating January 1 , whether she lactates at calf’s birth and whether she gets pregnant next fall

•Current simplistic set up allows user to set• Change in summer temperature• Change in May/June precipitation• Change in winter snow• Change in spring temperature

•These changes impact food quality, quantity, diet, activity,

HOW DOES THE MODEL CURRENTLY MODEL IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE

•Currently we can look at up to 5 generic developments• for each development can set time period impacted• for each development can set impact on activity• currently we don’t handle shifts in habitat (see RSF)

HOW DOES THE MODEL HANDLE DEVELOPMENT

development

Climate change

Current years

weather

Animal condition

Fall condition

Probability of pregnancy

Exercising the model: Modelling probability of pregnancy in fall

Ran the model 16 timesRuns:• Poor and good initial body weight• Best and worst current years weather• Climate change and no climate change• Development and no developmentThen:• Converted fall body weight to probability of pregnancy

ALL RUNS73

GOOD CLIMATE

86

WORST CLIMATE

56

NO-DEV98

LO BODY

WT51

Hi BODY

WT65

DEV78

NO-CC

100

CC97

NO-CC80

CC76

NO-DEV73

DEV59

NO DEV56

DEV 45

OUTPUT FROM THE RUNS

Need to spend time with PCMB or sub-group of PCMB?

• Need to work with the PCMB to develop practical tools and applications from this project.– What tools does the Board want developed to better

deal with development scenarios and learn about the role of possible future climate

– Is there a role in this CE project to play in the annual HMP deliberations – climate is updated and added annually

– What research needs can be identified from this process to gain more confidence in dealing with development and climate change.