Infinite Futures

The Cultural ContradictionsOf Scanning

In an Evidence-basedPolicy Environment

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures, Oxford

http://www.infinitefutures.com/ * wendy@infinitefutures.com

Constraints, Biases, Filters

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Overview of presentation

• Why scanning? Feedstock for all other foresight activities

• Why not just major drivers and trends? Because environment isn’t static, nor can foresight be: changes itself changes:– Lifecycle: emerges, grows or collapses, matures– Must catch it early to have a hope of affecting it rather

than merely adapting to it (see gold standard)– Where do we look for emerging change?

• Contradictions: origins, details.

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Overview, cont’d.

• Addressing contradictions in their own terms:– Validating scan sources;– Validating scan data.

• What are other weaknesses in basic scanning? How can we overcome other biases and filters?– Integral futures– Causal Layered Analysis– Spiral Dynamics– Verge (ethnographic framework) and alternate

taxonomies

• Get outside the confines of your own perceptions.

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CHANGE

trends, drivers, emerging issues

+ - x %extrapolate, assess impacts

scenario 1scenario 2

scenario 3

scenario 4

scenario n

STRATEGIES

VISION- goals, values -

build on positives,counter negatives

Scanning is the essential feedstock for all subsequent foresight activities:

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The map isn’t the territory,

Navigational charts vs. radar:you need both.

because the territory is dynamic.

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Horizon Scanning

• Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring the emergence, growth, and coalescence of change.

• Related to issues management and competitive intelligence.

• ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to the logically structured, iterative monitoring of selected information sources.

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“Gold Standard” for Scanning*

• Evaluating a scan ”hit” (change datum):– Subjectively or objectively new?– Confirming/reinforcing, or negating/balancing?– Time horizon for ”emergence”?– Credibility of source?

• Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

*Dr. Peter Bishop, Univ. of Houston - Clear Lake

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WILDCARD!!

TIME

numberof cases;degreeofpublicawareness

local;few cases;emergingissues

global; multiple dispersed cases;trends and megatrends

scientists;artists; radicals; mystics

specialists’journals and websites

layperson’s magazines,websites, documentaries

newspapers,news magazines

governmentinstitutions

Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change.

adapted fromGraham Molitor

Change: issue life-cycle.

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Identifying Sources of Surprise:

• Source acquisition: opinion leaders.– Science, technology, innovation: sources in which

those communities themselves announce news.– Social and cultural change: sources expressing

values and ideas bubbling among artists, youth, marginalised communities; often ‘fringe’ publications or media.

• Sources of surprise:– Look for challenges to scientific paradigms;– Look for challenges to the status quo.

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Origin of contradiction:

Government desire for advanced warning.

• Political culture: need to look responsible, authoritative NOT tentative;

• Scientific culture: need to assemble credible, objective, data-based arguments

Horizon scanning:

• Beginning of research, not end;

• “N of 1”;• Unearths contradictions;• Subjective, not objective;• “Unscientific” sources;• Systems-based;• Unfamiliar concepts.

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Research vs. scanning…

• Research criteria:– Credible;– Documented;– Authoritative;– Statistically

significant;

• Scanning:– Questionable

credibility;– Difficult to

document;– Fringe sources;– Case studies --

statistically insignificant.

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Research vs. scanning…

• Research criteria:– Coherent: data

agree;– Consensus:

experts agree;– Theoretically

grounded;– Mono-disciplinary.

• Scanning:– Incoherent --

data varies widely;

– Experts disagree or attack outright;

– Demands new theories;

– Multi-disciplinary.

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Validating Scan Sources:

• Distinguish among expert, popular, or fringe sources:– Lancet for medicine: expert;– The Economist for world affairs: popular;– Counterculture for value shifts: fringe.

• Establish sources’ credibility as opinion leaders for their communities:– Citation by community members;– Market niche / branding;– Distribution data;– Media.

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Validating Scan Data:

• Problem: useful scan hits -- close enough to the point of origin to allow policy leverage -- are “weak signals”; often only one case.

• Validation:– Confirmation: accrue multiple citations;– Convergence: monitor emerging scientific

consensus; and– Parallax: acquire view from multiple

perspectives;A participatory team approach assists validation.

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Weaknesses in scanning:

• Frustrations:– Information overload…so many sources, so

little time!– Familiarity breeds boredom: nothing seems

new.

• Needs:– Segue more easily into discussion of

impacts and scenario development– Explicitly acknowledge that transformative

change emerges from turbulence (chaos) produced when emerging issues collide

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Adding analytic depth:(Hines, 2003)

• Integral Futures (Slaughter, 1999)– Melds FS with Wilbur’s integral philosophy– Four quadrants: individual exterior world;

collective exterior; collective internal; and individual internal

• Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah, various)– Four layers: litany/events; systems/structures;

values/worldviews; and myths/metaphors.

• Spiral Dynamics (Voros, 2001)

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Integral Futures: Four Quadrants

Individual

Collective

Interior Exterior

BEHAVIORAL

SOCIAL

INTENTIONAL

CULTURAL

Subjective

Inter-Subjective

Objective

Inter-Objective

“I”

“WE”

“IT”

“ITS”

Evidence-basedPolicyScanningData CollectionComfort Zone

measurable

interpreted

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• “Litany”– events, trends, problems, “word on the street,” media

spin, official positions.

• “Causes”– structures, inter-relationships, systems, technical and

policy explanations

• “Worldview”– culture, values, how language frames/constrains the

issue

• “Myth/Metaphor”– Collective archetypes, emotional responses, visual

images

From superficial to subtle:

the five layers of CLA

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CausesCauses

Metaphors and MythsMetaphors and Myths

ProblemProblem

Social, Economic, Cultural

Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, postmodernisms, Spiral dynamics memes (alternatives)

Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock

stories,gut level responses, emotional responses,visual images - may not be words for it(visioning)

WorldviewWorldview

The “Litany”:Official public description of issueobservational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media

spin,opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)

Social Science Analysis:Short-term historical factsstart connecting; systems analysis, feedbackinterconnections, technical explanations, social

analysis,policy analysis (systems)

Sources: R. Slaughter, “Integral Operating System,” World Future Society, July 2003, drawing on Sohail Inayatullah;Dennis List, “3 Maps of the Future,” July 18, 2003; Andy Hines, UH-Clear Lake, 2006.

Continuous

Years

Societal/Civilizational

Decades

Time Scale of Change

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CHANGE!

Using CLA to create alternative scenarios / visions:

Identify the litany: current conditions & events.

Analyze the causes: interrelationships, systems.

Explore the worldview: values and cultural icons.

Unveil the myths/metaphors: archetypes, emotions.

Analyse down, identifying alternative litanies, causes, worldviews, and myths: create change by choosing alternatives as you surface.

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Integral Futures | Causal Layers

Individual

Collective

Interior Exterior

BEHAVIORAL

SOCIAL

INTENTIONAL

CULTURAL

Subjective

Inter-Subjective

Objective

Inter-Objective

“WORLDVIEWS,MENTAL MODELS”

“MYTHS,METAPHORS”

“LITANIES”

“CAUSES,SYSTEMS”

measurable

interpreted

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Spiral Dynamics

• Popularised by Don Beck, derived from Clare Graves• Locus of perception; goals in life• Eight layers (http://www.spiraldynamics.org/Graves/colors.htm):

– TURQUOISE: global community / life force; survival of Earth; consciousness

– YELLOW: independence / self-worth; fitting a living system; knowing – GREEN: harmony / love; joining together for mutual growth; awareness– ORANGE: opportunity / success; competing to achieve results; influence– BLUE: stability / order; obedience to earn later reward; meaning– RED: power / action; asserting self to dominate others; control– PURPLE: safety / security; protection from harm; family bonds– BEIGE: survival; biogenic needs satisfaction; reproduction

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Taxonomies:

• Expert defined: STEEP, PESTE, EPISTLE, PESTLEC, SEPES, SPEED, GLIMPSES, etc.– Defined by the origin point of change;– Most too coarse-grained: refine with

subcategories, eg, social: lifestyle; environment: biosphere.

– Many emerging issues cross categories.

• Innovations: VERGE ethnofutures framework– Defined by the impact point of change (see

following slide).

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The processes and technology through which we create goods & services

The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and use them

Social structures & relationships which

link people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and

paradigms we use to define the world

around us

The technologies used to connect

people, places and things

EthnoFutures Scanning Framework

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“Folksonomies:”

• Taxonomies: industrial age culture -– Expert defined;– Hierarchical: top-down classification.

• Folksonomies: information age culture -– Open source and participatory;– Organic: emergent structure;– TagClouds.

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Excellent scanning generates shockwaves.

Those shockwaves shake assumptions.Shaking assumptions creates turbulence:

-- creativity emerges ---- but controversy emerges as well.

Is excellent scanning even possible in a policy environment?

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Thank you!

Dr. Wendy L. SchultzInfinite Futures: foresight research and trainingwendy@infinitefutures.comTEL: +44-(0)1865-284377FAX: +44-(0)1865-274125Skype: wendyinfutures