Culinary Trend Mapping Report

Culinary Trend Mapping Report

jtekin

Text Box

The Culinary Trend Mapping® Report is an indispensable tool for those whose job it is to stay abreast of what's hot - or what will be - in the food world. Published six times a year, each report is a 75+ page journal packed with trends, data, strategies and insights on the food industry that simply aren't available anywhere else. Using the Center for Culinary Development's (CCD) signature Trend Mapping® technique, a validated method identifying which culinary trends are “gaining traction” and which are simply flashes in the pan, each report concentrates on a theme, or trend, that is affecting the food industry, and then looks at the emerging and established ingredients, cooking styles and products along the Trend Map that are driving this theme. The following pages are samples from the Culinary Trend Mapping® Reports, so that you can see for yourself the in-depth market knowledge and future trend projections that the Center for Culinary Development brings to each report. Save over 30% when you buy a one year subscription! Purchase a One Year Subscription (Six Issues) of the Culinary Trend Mapping® Report for $12,500 or purchase individually for $3,000 each.

jtekin

Text Box

www.packagedfacts.com/landing/culinarytrends.asp

jtekin

Stamp

jtekin

Text Box

®

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Indulgence • �

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Based in San Francisco, The Center for Culinary Development is a food and beverage product development

company that blends culinary creativity with strategic marketing expertise. Our strength in identifying the latest

food trends, from both culinary and consumer-behavior perspectives, makes us uniquely qualified to help our

clients create food product solutions that satisfy consumer expectations.

For 15 years, CCD has looked to our 80+ member Chefs’ Council®, comprised of the nation’s most prominent

culinary experts, to help us identify emerging trends. Through these years of experience we’ve devised and

validated a technique called Trend Mapping® to determine which trends are “gaining traction,” and which are

simply flashes in the pan. Trend Mapping is guided by the premise that major food trends pass through five

distinct stages on their way to the mainstream:

The ingredient, dish and/or cooking technique appears at upscale dining establishments, ethnic and popular independent restaurants blessed with creative chefs and diners with adventurous palates. “Where was the first time you tried pesto?”

The item is featured in specialty consumer-oriented food channels such as Gourmet, and Bon Appétit magazines, The Food Network plus retail stores such as Sur la Table that target culinary professionals and serious home chefs.

The item begins to appear in mainstream chain restaurants – Applebee’s or Chili’s – as well as retail stores such as Williams-Sonoma that target recreational cooks.

The women’s magazines and family-oriented publications – Family Circle, Better Homes and Gardens – pick up the buzz.

Finally, the trend makes its way to quick service restaurant menus and are either starting to appear or are having an increased presence on grocery store shelves.

STAGE 1

STAGE 2

STAGE 3

STAGE 4

STAGE 5

Trend Mapping


vol. 4 2007no.4 INDULGENCE

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Indulgence • 6

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Kimberly Egan, CEO/principal, Center for Culinary Development

Frappuccino is a terrific example of an affordable indulgence, a drink in which we can take great pleasure, one that offers a momentary escape and that makes us happy.

American consumers have become comfortable indulging themselves in this way, through non-essential, yet accessible, consumer experiences found via pleasurable (and excessive) food and drink. To meet consumer demand, marketers are creating more and more indulgent products (and menu items) all the time. Many of these are confectionary – ice cream or dessert products with heavy doses of chocolate, caramel, nuts or other decadent inclusions. For example, Poppycock recently released In-dul-gence, a new line of gourmet popcorn in five flavors, like Simply Diva with “clusters of almonds, cashews and pecans devilishly drizzled with caramel.” Other products are subtler, using indulgent ingredients like caramel to elevate basic foods, such as the Caramel Nut Brownie Luna Bar.

While sweets are an indulgence for some, others indulge in pricey prime Angus beef in trendy steakhouses or high-end flavored vodka cocktails at restaurants. Many restaurants typically offer indulgent

experiences, an opportunity to eat more than we really need to. In fact, 56% of respondents to a Technomic’s survey agree that “when I go out to eat, I tend to eat more indulgently than I do at home.” Additionally, 54% don’t care if they order high calorie or fattening food (American Express Market Brief, March 2007). Similarly, 67% of U.S. consumers believe full-fat ice cream is worth the guilt (Denali Flavors survey, FoodNavigator.com, July 7, 2007). These statistics show that, despite all the talk about health, diet and nutrition, many Americans still crave indulgent experiences.

Why are indulgent experiences so desired? Because they deliver sought-after emotional benefits. Indulgent experiences offer comfort and nurture. They deliver temporary escapes via novel eating experiences, like mix-ins on ice cream at Cold Stone Creamery. Indulgent foods allow consumers to show off their good taste and connoisseur knowledge of premium products, like single-origin chocolate or fine wines. They feel like luxuries but at a lower price. All of these experiences generate positive feelings, which is the biggest driver behind indulging.

Indulgence products are also part of the growing luxury trend. Both offer non-essential, feel-good experiences, but indulging can be more about excessive wish gratification with an element of yielding.

Why New Trends in Indulgence

Who doesn’t need a little indulgence now and then? In today’s stressful world, just about everyone needs an occasional gratifying experience. We can’t always indulge our wishes for a fancy new car or the latest designer handbag, but one easy way to indulge is through food and beverage. A Starbucks

Kimberly Egan


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Luxuries can be difficult to obtain and priced out of reach. At least, they used to be. As Michael J. Silverstein and Neil Fiske, authors of Trading Up: The New American Luxury, claim, luxuries are more readily available today on several levels. “Masstige” products are the most notable, relatively inexpensive luxury-like items available in mass channels, like mass-marketed gourmet chocolates at the bed-bath store. Thanks to consumer sophistication, more disposable income and a culture steeped in celebrity worship, everyone believes they are entitled to luxury, as long as there is a clear benefit.

Luckily, there are many proven benefits in indulgence products and, thus, manufacturers and restaurant operators can find new business opportunities by expanding into this category. The good news on the business side is that consumers are willing to pay a premium for these products, resulting in higher profit margins. The trick is how to deliver everyday indulgence. If that is accomplished, the positive experiences generated during this particularly emotional exchange will build brand loyalty. Companies can also enjoy making consumers happy with well-loved products or menu items.

We believe we have identified a wide range of emerging and established trends that represent opportunities for CPG and restaurants to add indulgence high tier experiences to their portfolio and price points. On our Trend Map®, we have charted several ingredients, flavor profiles and food categories that deliver indulgence messages to consumers. At Stage 1 are Domestic Truffles, newly cultivated in the U.S. At Stage 2 are two flavor ideas, Floral Flavors and Wine-Flavored Sweets. Artisan Cheese and Greek Yogurt are both already at Stage 3, offering indulgent dairy experiences. Both Mix-Ins and Premium Chocolate have arrived in the mainstream at Stage 5, more typical indulgent fare.

We believe manufacturers and restaurant operators can use these indulgence trends to attract consumers looking for extra satisfaction and an experience that appeals to the senses.

Why Indulgence

mmm…strategic product development solutions with taste

Kimberly Egan,CEO/Principal

Center for Culianary Development

CONTENTS

A Unique Understanding of How Products Develop and Grow


06 Executive Summary

Trends in Indulgence – Kimberly Egan

Executive Summary

1� Industry Overview

Indulgent Eaters Could Provide Rich Business Opportunities - Don Montuori

17 Trend Profiles

Trend SummaryStage 1: Domestic Truffles

Stage 2: Floral Flavors Wine-Flavored Sweets

Stage 3: Artisan Cheese Greek Yogurt

Stage 5: Mix-Ins Premium Chocolate

6� Chef Speak: CCD Chefs’ Council® Voices

Alice Medrich: Toward Brainier Indulgences65 Strategic Implications

Pulling the Indulgence Lever70 Appendix

Food Beat, Inc.

105 Sources

Source List

Volume 4, Number 4 �007

UPCOMING ISSUESHand-held foods

Where are they now? A look back

Kids’ Food

INDULGENCE TRENDS

Publisher: Don Montuori, Packaged Facts and Kimberly Egan, Center for Culinary Development

Author: Kara Nielsen

Art Director/Designer: Elyse Hochstadt


Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Indulgence • �1

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

As consumption grows, wine spreads across categories

Americans have finally discovered the joy of wine. Sure, wine lovers have always existed, but overall, consumers in the United States are buying more of the stuff than in any time in history. According to the Wine Market Council, Americans consumed an all-time record of 259 million cases of table wine in 2006. Adult per capita consumption is estimated at 2.88 gallons per year. These record highs come after 13 years of growth and the trend shows no sign of stopping. Several reasons behind this growth are generational, the Council claims. Generation Xers have finally incorporated wine into their lives while Generation Y, whose oldest members are 29, is receptive to wine already – and they number 70 million. Imagine the market increase as more of this group reaches drinking age!

Wine: A new flavor option for sweets and desserts

Thanks to an increased number of wine shops, wine bars, and wine-food pairing books, as well as Food TV and wine being sold in more channels, wine consciousness is also high. This can explain the recent spurt in food products and menu items featuring wine as a flavor or addition. Wine has always been used in savory cooking for braising and sauce making, and many of us have enjoyed wine-poached pears. The products we are seeing right now, however, are using wine in new ways – in ice creams, chocolate truffles and sweet syrups to garnish desserts.

This trend has been simmering in wine country boutiques and tasting rooms but is now moving out farther into specialty stores and restaurants, creating a Stage 2 trend. According to ProductScan Online, 22 sweet products featuring wine have been introduced through August 2007.

Where are they now?

Wine-flavored sweetsSTAGE2

what:

why:

how:

Wine adds flavor and sophistication to chocolate confections, ice cream, syrups and desserts

No longer so intimidated by wine, consumers recognize wine varietals and seek new opportunities to add wine to their lifestyles

Red, white and sparkling wine used in chocolates, ice creams, sorbets, cheese condiments, dessert sauces

wine-flavored sweets


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Magic Mix-Ins Apple Sauce with Pop Rocks; fun idea, but the product is no longer on the Mott’s website, so Pop Rocks may not have been Mom’s first choice for an applesauce mix-in!

Mix-in opportunities

We see mix-ins as an early Stage 5 trend, which means there are still opportunities for manufacturers and restaurant operators to take advantage of consumers’ desire to customize for indulgence. For restaurateurs, consider ways to add topping choices to more foods than just pizza. Create an indulgent-sounding composed salad topping list with candied nuts, premium dried fruit pieces, fresh or grilled fruit, gourmet charcuterie (cured meats, like prosciutto) and a variety of artisan cheese (see profile in this issue). Don’t forget about a “create your own sundae” bar, but offered frozen yogurt instead, to capture the trend. For grocery store owners, consider the cupcake bar idea for in-store bakeries. Provide examples of zany decorations in a display case to encourage creativity. Would it ever be possible to include an ice-cream-parlor like “salad” bar for consumers to pre-pack their own decadent toppings? And what about pre-packaging cereal toppers to accentuate microwave-oatmeal for folks on the go? Consumers are always seeking a little indulgence to make the day taste better. n

• Box of single-portion toppings, like cookie crumbs, candy bar pieces, dried fruit and nuts, to accompany frozen desserts at home

• Cupcake decorating bars at in-store bakeries; include seasonal decorations and frostings, such as orange and black for Halloween

• Macaroni and cheese mix-ins in prepared food section (or on a menu) of a store with bacon, prosciutto, sun-dried tomatoes, blue cheese chunks and more

Where are they now?

Mix-insSTAGE5


no.1 2007vol. 4 Specialty caféS

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Specialty Cafés • 6

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Kimberly Egan, Pricipal and Senior Director of Client Services, CCD

The smoothie example

That is precisely what happened with smoothies. Although natural juice bars got their start

in the late 1960s, it wasn’t until the mid 1990s that blended juice drinks became a widespread specialty café trend, led by the impressive growth of Jamba Juice. Founded in 1990, the smoothie and juice bar chain now has 533 stores in 26 states, and it has plenty of company. In fact, according to David Gross, president of Juice Bar Solutions consulting, there are now 33,000 smoothie and juice bars in the U.S., generating over $1.6 billion in sales in 2005. The specialty café industry is expected to grow to $2.65 billion by 2010. Growing product category

Meanwhile, smoothies have turned into an important refrigerated juice beverage category, thanks to our interest in health, yogurt and fruit-based antioxidants, and convenience. Since February 2005, 143 smoothie drink SKUs have been

introduced to the marketplace, including smoothies for kids (Yoplait Go Gurt Smoothie), for weight watchers (Weight Watchers 1 Point Value Smoothie), for soy milk drinkers (Silk Live Smoothie), organic shoppers (Stonyfield Farm Organic Smoothie Drinkable Lowfat Yogurt) and antioxidant seekers (Sambazon Organic Açai Antioxidant Superfood Smoothie). They provide convenient, on-the-go smoothie taste, texture and portability.

A reflection of trends

Specialty cafés reflect current trends. For example, smoothies reflect health and wellness trends as well as on-the-go convenience. Noodle joints point to the rise of Asian cuisine, with its bold flavors, healthy vegetables and lean meats. It doesn’t hurt that quick, inexpensive noodle bowls offer warming comfort and could become the comfort food of Gen X’s and Gen Y’s. Newer niche cafés embracing the comfort food trend serve spruced up versions of macaroni and cheese or twenty flavors of rice pudding with mix-ins.

Why Specialty Cafés

You may have noticed one on your street. A café or small shop serving a specialty food or beverage, like bubble tea, hot chocolate or dessert. It may seem quirky or have a limited menu, but if the concept strikes a chord with local consumers by providing just the right food in the right environment, chances are this genre of café could end up a hit. In fact, the featured product could turn out to be a signpost for an emerging category that becomes a billion dollar business.

Kimberly Egan


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Not all trends will take hold, like Jamba Juice or even Starbucks, the single best example of how a specialty food trend, (such as gourmet coffee drinks), can be packaged, branded, and expanded around the country! But by examining emerging café trends found in college towns and urban centers, we can glean food and beverage trends coming down the pipeline. Just as smoothies made the transition from custom-made juice bar drink to a packaged good product, other foods can inspire new opportunities for manufacturers and restaurant operators alike. Think about thick, rich chocolate drinks, like those found in chocolate cafés, or crispy, cinnamon-dusted churros, now popping up in specialty shops, not just taco chain menus.

Keep an eye on ethnic food trends, as well. Street foods, like Indian chaat, can become an entry point for mainstream consumers to discover the flavors and forms of an ethnic cuisine. Although chaat cafés are not quite a trend yet, they soon may be with their snacking focus.

Profiled Trends

We chart nine specialty café trends in this issue, examining not only the products served, like custom-roasted French press coffee or cereal blends with myriad toppings, but the setting and what that tells us about consumers and their needs and desires. Emerging cafés at Stage 1 and 2 include Churro Shops, Coffee Roasteries, Tea Lounges, Dessert Cafés and Cereal Bars. Chocolate Cafés and Bubble Tea Shops have made it to early Stage 3. Specialty Noodle Houses, at Stage 4, have already undergone their first mutation and expansion, changing identities to reflect a broader Asian menu. Finally, we look back at the rise of Stage 5 Smoothie and Juice Bars, the pacesetter for this category.

Throughout these café visits, be on the lookout for ideas that can be borrowed, tweaked and revised for restaurant menus as well as new product opportunities. These café trends reveal a food or drink that may well grow into the next big thing. n

Why Specialty Cafés


Kimberly Egan,Principal and Senior Director of Client Services


CONTENTS




Why Specialty Cafés - Kimberly Egan

Executive Summary

14 Industry Overview

Starbucks: The Gold (Coast) Standard for Specialty Cafés?

19 Trend Profiles

Trend Summary

Churro Shops

Coffee Roasteries

Tea Lounges

Dessert Cafés

Cereal Bars

Chocolate Cafés

Bubble Tea Shops

Noodle Houses

Smoothie and Juice Bars

61 Chef Speak: CCD Chefs’ Council Voices

Mani Niall: Chef Trailblazer Reflects on the Specialty Café Trend

Talking Toques

66 Strategic Implications

Learning Strategic Lessons from Specialty Cafés

Taking a Hint from Specialty Cafés

98 Sources

Source list


UPCOMING ISSUESSpices & Seasonings

Meat & Fish

Indulgence

Hand-held Food

SPECIALTY CAFES


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co Strategic ImplicationsLearning Strategic Lessons from Specialty Cafés

We at CCD believe it is important to learn lessons from specialty cafés, whether they are serving unique versions of everyday items, like coffee or tea, or offering a locale for enjoying a post-movie dessert or decadent chocolate fondue. Food manufacturers and restaurant operators can discover future food and beverage trends and gain insight into growing niche markets. They can also discover clues to consumers’ changing desires and to various customization options. Don’t ignore the niche markets these cafés represent and don’t dismiss specialty café trends that may seem too tiny or too challenging to incorporate on a larger scale. Instead, follow these lessons.

Lesson 1: Specialty cafés are harbingers of food trends.

Underneath each café trend profiled in this report lie deeper consumer trends that can provide hints about what consumers are passionate about today. For example, noodle houses provide a quick, nourishing and filling snack that appeal to the growing Asian population, to students on a

budget and those looking for comfort. Smoothies encompass both convenience and healthy eating trends. Both of these broad-appeal categories started as a niche retail operation.

How does CCD translate specialty café trends? • We look at current demographics by geographic region and

prepare for growth. You can consider student populations, ethnic groups, and age trends by city. Bubble drinks appeal to young Asians and could be added to menus and grocery beverage cases where appropriate.

• We consider lifestyle trends that underlie cafés and think about what products can be altered to meet them. For example, dessert cafés offer diners an opportunity to have a restaurant-style plated dessert without the price of a whole dinner. How can this be translated to the marketplace? Dessert kits, different styles of frozen desserts or a line of dessert accompaniments that make anyone a “pastry chef.”

By definition, specialty cafés offer consumers a deeper and broader dive into a food or beverage. A wide range of flavors is available; high quality product examples are procured. Staff members are trained to discuss the merits and choice of products. Consumers can also create custom versions of their favorite coffee blend, noodle bowl or cereal mash up. Being small, cafés can also respond quickly to consumer desires by changing menus, adding products and evolving concepts. These cafés, in turn, create a loyal clientele that become connoisseurs themselves.


vol. 5 2008 no.1 EmErging HEaltH & WEllnEss

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Emerging Health & Wellness • 6

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

But what about U.S. consumers? Will they buy into this new world of beauty chocolates and smart waters the way they have with

energy drinks? You bet they will! Even with the health and wellness market just emerging, the average American spends $90 a year on functional foods and beverages, for a total of more than $27 billion in 2007. Look at what’s happened with antioxidants, the best-known health and wellness functionals in the U.S., showing all the signs of a Stage 5 trend. Antioxidants such as dark chocolate, superfruits and coffee/red wine are as familiar as that green tea boost in your Jamba Razzmatazz. Talk about mainstreaming!

We explore a number of emerging health and wellness trends in this report, key areas we think will prepare CPG manufacturers and foodservice operators for the mainstream blockbusters to come:

• foods that offer nutrition by color, or as we call it “huetrition”

• edible wrinkle resistors and other “beauty” foods• food and beverages that influence mood and combat

memory loss• new fill-you-up foods • digestive health and immunity products

global consumers are passionate about health like never before. They’ve become engaged about looking and feeling good, convinced that food

and beverages can be tools for boosting quality of life. From Scandinavian women

eating yogurt for boosting digestion to Japanese businessmen snacking on mood-

sharpening GABA chocolates to stay at the top of their game, health and wellness

has a deliciously edible dimension. Are consumers abroad eating and drinking their

way to a brighter future?

Kimberly Egan

Why Emerging Health & WellnessKimberly Egan, CEO/principal, Center for Culinary Development


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

With so much innovation, a little confusion (not to mention a cautionary tale or two) is understandable. Last year, the European Union banned manufacturers from using the term “superfood” unless accompanied by a specific health claim. And in January, a California consumer filed a class-action lawsuit against Dannon, a leader in probiotic dairy, for making unsubstantiated claims about the health value of its products. The lesson for manufacturers is to be sure to communicate the precise value of your innovative new products.

And it’s a sure bet that the drivers making functional foods and beverages so attractive to consumers won’t be changing. Baby Boomers are pushing the envelope for holding onto fitness and vitality. Their Gen Y kids are convinced that a little delicious daily maintenance now can keep them youthful for years to come. And everyone, parents and kids and everyone in between, is eager for strategies to cope with bottlenecked freeways and the time challenges of a self-empowered career. What better way to reach consumers than through something that tastes good, while speaking to our deepest need to take control of our own health and happiness?



Why Emerging Health & WellnessKimberly Egan, CEO/principal, Center for Culinary Development


CONTENTS


Culinary Trend Mapping Report 6 Executive Summary

Why Emerging Health & Wellness – Kimberly Egan

Executive Summary

1� Trend SummaryHuetrition

Beauty Foods

Brain Enhancers

Satiety Foods

Mood Foods

Immunity

Digestive Health

58 Chef Speak: CCD Chefs’ Council VoicesJan Matsuno: Integrating Functional Foods with Everyday Eating

6� Strategic Implications

Strategic Opportunities in the Emerging Health & Wellness World

67 Sources

Home Meal SolutionsKids’ FoodSnacksHispanic Food: The Next Wave Generation Y and Eating


Managing Editor: Kara Nielsen

Author: John Birdsall

Art Director: Elyse Hochstadt

Designer: Claire Brandt


EMErgiNg HEAlTH & WEllNESS

Culinary Trend Mapping Report UPCOMING ISSUES


ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co Executive SummaryEmerging Health & Wellness

Introduction: Why health and wellness trends?

Nutraceuticals — foods and beverages with active components that bestow health and well-being benefits beyond nutrition — are a global phenomenon. For decades, consumers in Japan and Europe have turned to products North Americans are now embracing in a big way, foods with the power to improve quality of life and stave off disease. As a result, new product introductions have ballooned. In the first 11 months of 2007 alone, worldwide launches of products containing omega-3s increased by 40% over the previous year.

This is part of a broader trend toward “positive nutrition.” Consumers now expect products to do more than just taste good; increasingly, they expect them to actively improve health. Credit, too, the trend toward self-medication: Aware-

ness of preven-tion is convinc-ing more and more consumers to take health into their own hands with the help of functional foods.

The seven trends profiled here demonstrate how functional foods

are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Once concentrated in the beverage cooler as energy drinks, nutraceuticals are encompassing ever more targeted functions, from improving digestion to fending off facial wrinkles. Together, they offer a wide-ranging set of ideas for food manufacturers and foodservice operators hoping to get consumers’ attention with products that offer benefits far beyond pleasing taste.

Stage 1: Huetrition: Healthy eating by colorHuetrition — nutrients inherent in the natural pigments of foods, valuable as sources of antioxidants, vitamins and amino acids — has potential to gain serious traction. Consumers seek foods

with simplicity, purity and inherent functionality, and huetrition is a natural — think of the antioxidant-rich anthocyanins that make purple asparagus purple. And huetrition serves as an easy diet schematic. Nutritionists’ complex rules of balance are

Trend Profiles

Trend Summary 1 2 3 4 5

Huetrition ●

Beauty Foods ●

Brain Enhancers ●

Satiety Foods ●

Mood Foods ●

Immunity ●

Digestive Health ●


vol. 4 2008no.5 Hand-Held Foods

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Hand-Held Foods • 6

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co


Hand-held food, of course, implies portability and thus convenience. It also speaks to quick, casual, relaxed and fun. Childhood food is often hand-held, which brings in an element of nostalgia, too. These are all important drivers

that are pushing the growth and popularity of hand-held food today. Many of these trends mesh with busy American lifestyles. Meals and snacks are eaten in the car, on a plane, at the kids’ soccer practice and behind a desk. Yet, it is pretty boring to eat the same sandwich, hot dog, energy bar or slice of pizza time and again.

So where are we turning to find new, or sometimes retro, hand-held foods that deliver good flavors in portable packages? Primarily to ethnic cuisines. A range of ethnic street foods and foreign fast-food chains are appearing in the U.S., illustrating the broadening of the American palate and exciting cross-cultural pollination.

Consumers are also fondly recalling classic American hand-held items, like sliders and fried chicken, but are now finding new examples with bolder flavors, different textures and premium ingredients to provide a novel dining experience.

For those seeking a healthful hand-held meal solution, many of the trends we profile fit this bill, such as Indian dosas, which are also typically gluten-free and vegetarian, both important qualities in today’s niche diet world.

Here is what we discovered: • Mexican frozen ice pops, called paletas, epitomize fresh fruit

and big flavor, while evoking the child in us all.

• Dosas, an Indian pancake stuffed with potatoes and vegetables, offer a healthful, yet unique and flavorful, new wrap.

• Chinese steamed buns, or bao, couldn’t be more convenient or versatile: cooked meat and other fillings stuffed or sandwiched in a fluffy, yeasted steamed bun.

• Korean and Latin American fried chicken styles are attracting new audiences while accommodating ethnic populations with their distinct flavors and forms.

• Appealing to our love of nostalgia and the hamburger are sliders, the mini burgers that have become something more: a new fangled sandwich bite that speaks to today’s casual dining tendencies that includes sharing food.

Why Hand-Held Foods?

Convenience has been a driver of portable food innovation for centuries. Meat pies, for example, existed in pre-medieval times, one of the earliest forms of food-to-go. Even Romans were able to buy “fast-food” on the street. So it is no surprise that consumers are continually seeking the best solution for meals and nutrition on the run.

Kimberly Egan

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Hand-Held Foods • �

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

• Empanadas, the wonderful Latin American street-food pastry turnover has already found a place on several QSR menus, but we see this versatile hand-held as an overlooked option for a host of portable meals at various times of day.

• One of the hottest mainstream trends is the breakfast sandwich, with new options appearing all the time in an effort to capture attention and market share.

All combined, the trends profiled in our report demonstrate how the notion of hand-held food is expanding to new flavor and form horizons. Whether drawing from an ethnic pantry, an artisan tradition, a slate of premium ingredients or with the intent of being more healthful, these hand-held foods offer a host of versatile ideas for food manufacturers and restaurant operators hoping to excite consumers, and build new business, with tasty, convenient portable foods. n

Why Hand-Held Foods?




CONTENTS




Why Hand-Held Trends – Kimberly Egan

Executive Summary

1� Trend Profiles

Trend SummaryStage 1: Paletas

Dosas

Stage 2: Chinese Steamed Buns Ethnic Fried Chicken

Stage 3: Sliders

Stage 4: Empanadas

Stage 5: Breakfast Sandwiches

45 Chef Speak: CCD Chefs’ Council® Voices

Agustin Gaytan: Portable exports with promise

48 Strategic Implications

New opportunities for hand-held food5� Appendix

Food Beat, Inc.

68 Sources

Source List


UPCOMING ISSUES

Where are they now? A look back

Kids’ Food

Snacks

Home Meal Replacements

HANd-HELd TRENdS


Author: Kara Nielsen

Art director/designer: Elyse Hochstadt


Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Hand-Held Foods • 16

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

A frozen pop that says “fresh”

You may not have heard of paletas or even tried one, but once you see or read about these full-flavored, brightly colored Mexican frozen ice pops, chances are you’ll want one. Paletas originate from the western state of Michoacana. Producers make them daily, chopping up and mashing cases of seasonal fruits. Mexican children grow up on paletas and attach the same flavor memories that American children attach to Popsicles.

But more than just a Popsicle, these frozen treats are made from fresh fruit or vegetables, a little sugar and either a water or milk base. Their unique texture comes from the inclusion of fruit chunks, bits of rice and nuts. They are shaped like a garden trowel, which is the origin of the name. Paletas are typically purchased from a paletero, or paleta vendor. However, paleta shops (or paleterias) are opening in cities across the U.S., attracting Hispanic and mainstream audiences alike. While Whole Foods sells one key commercial brand, Palapa Azul, we place paletas at Stage 1, just emerging from a specialty shop space.

Paletas cross over

What is significant about the rise of paletas is how well they culturally cross over. Early adopters, in the guise of food writers, bloggers and reporters, have climbed on the paleta bandwagon, praising their freshness and unusual flavors. Their acceptance serves as a bellwether for the increasing integration of Latino culture into mainstream American culture. And with good reason: the pops are primarily an artisan, fresh-made product with a healthful feel from reduced sugar and no preservatives. Plus, the flavors are

Paletas

what:

why:

how:

Where are they now?

Paletas STAGE1

Mexican ice pops made from fresh fruit chunks, vegetables, rice, nuts and spices; they come in unusual latino flavors.

This hand-held frozen treat embodies fresh and full-flavored with a distinct ethnic angle; alluring colors and textures, too.

Typically hand-made, paletas are found in small Mexican-owned shops or on the street from a paletero or paleta vendor; several commercial brands available including Palapa Azul.

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Hand-Held Foods • 4�

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

Portable breakfast sandwiches a morning leader

According to the Wall Street Journal, ten years ago bagels were the goal for fast-food companies; five years ago saw doughnuts in the spotlight. Today, breakfast sandwiches, along with premium coffee, are defining the daypart (Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2007). No wonder, considering the on-the-go lifestyles, extreme commutes and time pressures facing U.S. consumers. Perhaps news articles touting the importance of breakfast have also sunk in, spurring dynamic growth in the breakfast industry, which, according to Packaged Facts, is worth about $65 billion and will grow to $83 billion by 2015 (Breakfast in the Foodservice Market, Packaged Facts, Dec. 2006).

Whatever the reason, breakfast hand-helds are doing brisk business, in quick-service restaurants as well as in the freezer case, in convenience stores and cafés. They have become a recognized and dependable mainstream trend, placed at Stage 5 after several years of major activity. Here’s a recap of select breakfast sandwich introductions since the dawn of McDonald’s Egg McMuffin.

To each his and her own

As this list illustrates, a wide variety of options are available, depending on carrier, filling and size of the sandwich. Trends include copious offerings, like Burger King’s and Hardee’s monster sandwiches, as well as premium ingredients, like Starbucks’ meats and cheeses on English muffins. Burritos and biscuits are also popular carriers. Wendy’s has Buttermilk Frescuits with scrambled egg, cheese and bacon; Tim Horton’s recently introduced its Breakfast Sandwich with eggs, sausage or bacon, and cheese on a toasted home-style biscuit. The novel pancake

Where are they now?

Breakfast Sandwiches STAGE5breakfast sandwiches

Ubiquitous breakfast offering, typically made with omelet ingredients on biscuits, english muffins, croissants or wrapped in a tortilla.

2007 has seen an increase in hand-held breakfast competition across channels.

Growth seen in variety, flavor, size and premium ingredients.

what:

why:

how:


vol. 4 2008 no.6 A L0OK BACK

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Where Are They Now: A Look Back • 6

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co


why look back?

Wewerecurioustolearnwhattrendshadmadethemostprogress(açaíandpomegranatebothmovedaheadfourstages,withpomegranatenowinStage5)andwhichoneslaggedbehind(chermoula,aMoroccanspiceblendthatcouldsoonhavea

momentinthesun).Mosthavemovedupatleastoneortwostages,likegojiberries,edamameandteaineverycolor,andothersstillshowpromise,especiallyintheethnicfoodcategory,whereformsandflavorscanexistforyearsonthebackburnerandthenfinallycomeintotheirown,suchastheAsianstapleoflemongrassormyriadIndianfoods,includingnaan.

Byreviewingthelastfouryearsofourreports,wesee,onceagain,thatourfive-stagetrendtrackingmethodologyhasbeenvalidated.Mostofthetrendswespottedyearsagohavemadethekindofprogresswepredicted.Inaddition,bytrackingthesetrendsovertime,wehavegained(andhopeourlong-timereadershave,too)agreaterunderstandingofthepowerful

consumerdriversthatpropelthesetrendsuptheTrendMap.Thisisimportant,becausethedriversaretherealfactorsbehindwhatbecomestheroadmaptofuturetrends.

Inthisissue,weexploretrendsinthreeconsumerdrivercategories: •Health and Wellness •Ethnic Foods •Premium

Bygroupingtrendsinthisway,wecanpaintaclearerportraitofthepowerofthedriver.Notalltrendsfitneatlyinonlyonecategory,butwefindthereistypicallyonemainforcebehindatrend’smovement.

Wewrapupthisreportwithaquicklookintothefuture,sharingwithyousomeoftheemergingtrendsweexpecttobewritingaboutinthemonthsandyearstocome.

welcome to a very special edition of the Culinary Trend Mapping report. After four years of mapping the food world, we thought it was time to revisit the

many trends we identified and profiled in the Report to see how they have moved

along the Trend Map®.



Kimberly Egan

CONTENTS




UPCOMING ISSUES

whErE arE ThEy NOw: a lOOk baCk


author: Kara Nielsen

art Director/Designers: Elyse Hochstadt and Tarik Koivisto


Emerging Health and WellnessPrepared Meal SolutionsKids’ FoodSnacksHispanic Food: The Next Wave


why look back – kimberly Egan

Executive Summary

1� Trend Summary

14 Trends by Consumer DriversHealth & Wellness

Ethnic Food

Premium

6� A Look Forward

65 Chef Speak: CCD Chefs’ Council® Voices

67 Appendix

Food beat, Inc.

69 Sources

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Where Are They Now: A Look Back • 8

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.co

looking back at ethnic forms and flavorsBecauseAmericansocietyismadeupofpeoplefromallcornersoftheearth,therehasalwaysbeenaminglingofethnicdisheswithregionalAmericanfare.Yettherearealwaysnewfoodsfindingtheirwaytoourshores.Thankfully,wewillcontinuetoseenewethnicfoodsonfinediningmenus,inmagazinesoratourlocalchainrestaurant.Forexample,Americansarelearningmoreaboutinternationalregionalcuisines;it’snotjustMexicananymorebutOaxacanorYucatecan.

Simultaneously,theU.S.populationisbecomingmorediverseanditiseasiertofindethnicneighborhoodsservingauthenticfoodstobothlocalinhabitantsandfoodloversofallkinds.IngredientsforhomecooksalsocontinuetobecomemoreaccessibleinsomeoftheseneighborhoodsorviatheInternet.Frankly,itisanexcitingtimetodiscoverandcultivatenewfoodsandflavorsfromaroundtheglobeandwelookforwardtoidentifyingnewemergingethnicfoodsintheyearstocome.

Executive Summarywhere are they now?

Issue Trend First appeared 1 2 3 4 5

Pomegranate Summer �004 ▼ ●

Quinoa Summer �004 ■

Green tea Fall �004 ▼ ●

AçaÍ Spring �005 ▼ ●

Yerba Maté Fall �005 ▼ ●

Guarana Fall �005 ▼ ●

Rooibos Winter �006 ▼ ●

Goji berries Spr �006 ▼ ●

Gluten-free Fall �006 ▼ ●

Trends are in chronological order of when we spotted them

health & wellness Trends:

▼ Stage of First Appearance● Current Stage ■ Slow Stage � Growth

Center for Culinary Development & Packaged Facts • Culinary Trend Mapping Report Where Are They Now: A Look Back • 1�

ww

w.p

acka

gedf

acts

.com

www.ccdsf.coTrend Summary

ThEN aND

NOw

looking at where items have moved

from the first time they

appeared in Trend Mapping report to now

Trends are in chronological order of when we spotted them

▼ Stage of First Appearance

● Current Stage

■ Slow Stage � Growth

Issue Trend First appeared Trend 1 2 3 4 5

2004

Spring

Naan ▼ ●

Farm-raised fish/seafood ▼ ●

Buckwheat or soba noodles ■

Mole ■

Summer

Pomegranate ▼ ●

Quinoa ■

Yuzu ■

Sea salt ▼ ●

FallBubble tea ▼ ●

Green tea ▼ ●

2005

WinterPho ■

Sambal ■

Lemongrass ▼ ●

SpringAçaí ▼ ●

Edamame ▼ ●

Manchego cheese ■

SummerChurrascaria ▼ ●

Chimichurri ▼ ●

Dulce de leche ▼ ●

FallYerba maté ▼ ●

Guarana ▼ ●

2006

WinterRooibos ▼ ●

Kurobuta pork ▼ ●

Spring Goji berries ▼ ●

FallSous-vide cooking ▼ ●

Gluten-free ▼ ●

Winter Cereal cafés ●

2007

2007

Documents

Culinary Trend Mapping Report