CT Centre Academic Forum - Official Version 2

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Intelligence Social Network

Analysis

DSTL/CP24628 27 April 2007

Crown copyright 20007. Published with the permission of the DefenceScience and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

SNA of Intelligence Material

Application of SNA as anintelligence analysis tool

Extensive use by USIntelligence Agencies

Very little work in open fora

Valdis Krebs case study of 9-11 hijackers

K. Carley (CASOS)

S. Borgatti Taking account of missing /

incomplete / uncertain data is amajor issue


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Added value of SNA within Intelligence Analysis

Provides a deeper understanding of groups of interest

Can be used to infer possible links and help resolve ambiguities

Identifies network characteristics which are not intuitively

apparent

especially for large networksAllows group structures and communications flows to be

explored

Systematic approach to information extraction:

helps to fuse multi-source information

provides an audit trail and allows knowledge to be transferred


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Some illustrations


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Ministry of Defence

Example Identifying a person of interest

Clique A

Clique D Clique C

Clique B


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Ministry of Defence

Assumed structure

Group A Group B


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Structure suggested by SNA

Group A

Group B


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Centrality Variation over time

Could represent:

Changes within the

network

Changing focus of

reporting

Improving intelligence

picture

In any event, it makes these

changes explicit and

suggests avenues for more

detailed analysis

SNA is not a stand-alone

activity


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Link Inference by affiliation

Reported links Links inferred by affiliation

A

BC

DE

F

G

H

A

E

D

G


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Lessons Identified

The importance of the whole process: Setting analysis goals

Identifying data structures

Contextually relevant

Focused around analysis goals

Systematic and efficient data capture

Data management

Inter-agency working

Systematic and quantitative SNA process is an adjunct tocurrent immersive practices, not a replacement

Essential for SNA analysts to have contextual knowledge


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Issues Information extraction and management processes are very time consuming

Continuous process of coding and cleansing data

Disambiguation and transliteration

Development of efficient processes is key to long-term success

Standard software (e.g. UCINET and Pajek) can be difficult to use and is not

designed for use by non-specialists

The network is a representation of the Intelligence picture, not the reality on

the ground

If the SNA is not robust, it may indicate that the underlying Intelligence picture

may not be either

How do we account for changes in the network over time?

How well does SNA actually represent the actual human and social context?


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Taking stock

Reflecting on our operational work

Implied research requirements


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Reflecting on the operational work

Cost

Effectiveness

Time

TraditionalImmersive

Systematic+Quantitative

+ Immersive

Ideal


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Analysis phases

Cost

Effectiveness

Time

Systematic+Quantitative

+ Immersive

Exploration ExploitationKnowledge

Growth

Achieving acritical mass


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Factors shaping the curve

Cost

Effectiveness

Time

Collection limitationsCollection bias

Large network

Complex structure

Low link density

Covertness

Dynamism


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence


Cost

Effectiveness

Time

Clear analysis goalsMaking use of a priori knowledge

Understanding of social / political context

Previous experience

Efficient exploratory capabilities


Large network

Complex structure

Low link density

Covertness

Dynamism

Joined-up strategy and approach

Efficient information extraction

Efficient information management

Efficient analysis

Mechanisms to deal with missing / uncertain data

Effective feedback to collection

Accurate anticipation of intervention effect

Effective tracking of network change

Methods to counter cognitive bias


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Effective feedback to collection

Accurate anticipation of intervention effect

Effective tracking of network change

Methods to counter cognitive bias


Cost

Effectiveness

Time


Large network

Complex structure

Low link density

Covertness

Dynamism

Joined-up strategy and approach

Efficient information extraction

Efficient information management

Efficient analysis

Mechanisms to deal with missing / uncertain data

Clear analysis goalsMaking use of a priori knowledge

Understanding of social / political context

Previous experience

Efficient exploratory capabilities


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

The biggest challenge ?

Systematic

+Quantitative

+ Immersive

Cost

Effectiveness

Time

TraditionalImmersive


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Dstl 2007

Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

The biggest challenge ?

Cost

Effectiveness

Time

Systematic

+Quantitative

+ Immersive

Effective trainingEfficient and easy to use tools

SNA made accessible to non-specialists

Recruitment of personnel with appropriate skills


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Dstl is part of the

Ministry of Defence

Questions?

Documents

CT Centre Academic Forum - Official Version 2