CSYS –COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS .CSYS 300 –COMPLEX SYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS, METHODS

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  • Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energys National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2014-2179 C

    Photos placed in horizontal position with even amount of white space

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    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONS

    WELCOME,SYLLABUS,EXAMPLESOFCOMPLEXSYSTEMS(ANDTHEIRFAILURES)

    STEVEKLEBAN,KEVINL.STAMBER,THERESABROWNSandiaNationalLaboratories,NewMexico(USA)

  • OutlineofPresentation BriefBiographicalNote Welcome WhatThisClassisabout Syllabus

    ClassProject

    WhatisaComplexSystem? ExamplesofComplexSystems ExamplesofComplexSystemsFailures UnderstandingComplexSystems Summary Question&AnswerSession

    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMS FUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWelcome,Syllabus,ExamplesofComplexSystems(andtheirFailures)

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  • BriefBiographicalNoteonKevinL.Stamber BSIEUniversityofPittsburgh MSIE,Ph.D.PurdueUniversity

    Staff,StateUtilityForecastingGroup

    SandiaNationalLaboratories,1998present CriticalInfrastructureModeling,Simulation&Analysis DOEPowerOutageStudyTeam(199899) NationalInfrastructureSimulationandAnalysisCenter(NISAC)

    AnalysisLead ChemicalSupplyChainModeling InfrastructureResourceAllocationandPrioritizationduringIncidents(IRAPI)

    MemberIIE,INFORMS

    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWelcome,Syllabus,ExamplesofComplexSystems(andtheirFailures)

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  • BriefBiographicalNoteonTheresaBrown Ph.D.Geology(UniversityofWisconsinMadison),M.A.Geology

    (UTAustin),BSEarthScienceandSecondaryEducation(AdamsState)

    UNM adjunctprofessor,geology;CityofStevensPoint,WIwellheadprotectionstudy lead;AssociatedDrillingCo. geologist;NationalGeographicPaleontologicalDigatHansensBluff crewleader.

    SNL CASoSEngineeringLeadandDistinguishedR&D CASoSEngineering lead NISAC programtechnicallead NISAC DIISAmodelinglead YMP,GCDandNRCprojects probabilisticriskandperformanceassessments

    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWelcome,Syllabus,ExamplesofComplexSystems(andtheirFailures)

    4

  • BriefBiographicalNoteonStephenD.Kleban BAComputerScienceUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego MSComputerScienceUniversityofNewMexico

    FocusonArtificialIntelligence&MachineLearning

    StanfordLinearAcceleratorCenter IntelligentBeamLinediagnostics

    SandiaNationalLaboratories,1993present TechnicalWork 12years Management 8years

    HealthcareandPublicHealth ComplexSystemsResearchChallenge&ComplexSystemsInstitute

    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWelcome,Syllabus,ExamplesofComplexSystems(andtheirFailures)

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  • Division6000hasFourCapabilityPortfolioHomeroomswhichincludes GlobalSecurityofWMD Complex&IntelligentSystems IntersectionbetweenEarthandEngineeredEnvironments EnergySystems&TheNuclearFuelCycle

    CourseisfundedbyComplex&IntelligentSystems(C&IS)CapabilityPortfolioHomeroom C&ISHomeroomalsofundingtheworkshopsdiscussingaSandiaComplex

    SystemsInstitute Whatwehopeyoutakefromthisclass

    LearnwhereComplexSystemshavearoleinSandiasNationalSecurityMission

    LearnwhereaComplexSystemsapproachisuseful Networking

    CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWelcome

    6

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSStructureoftheCourse

    FundamentalsofComplexSystems Methods

    ModelingTechniques ApproachestoExaminingComplex

    Systems

    Applications Examplesoftheuseofcomplexsystems

    fundamentalstosolveproblems Learninghowtousecomplexsystems

    modelingtools

    7*Note:TheseapproachesrepresentasimplifiedsetofcomplexsystemsconceptschosenfortheCSYS300systemslectures.Pleaseseetheinitialtwolecturesforadditionaldetailandexpandedreferences.

    Focusofthissession

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSSyllabus

    Date Topic Instructor(s) Location

    March 18,2014Welcome,Syllabus,OverviewofComplexSystems(andComplexSystemsFailures)

    KevinStamber/SteveKleban/TheresaBrown 856/104

    March20,2014 SystemDynamicsFundamentals LenMalczynski/Asmeret Bier 856/104

    March 25,2014 SystemDynamicsApplications LenMalczynski/Asmeret Bier 856/104

    March 27,2014

    AgentBasedModelingFundamentals

    StudentProjectOverviewandExamples

    KevinStamber/MarkEhlen

    KevinStamber/SteveKleban 856/104

    April 1,2014 AgentBasedModelingApplications SteveVerzi 856/104

    April 3,2014Optimization:OverviewofLinearProgramming JaredGearhart 880/D48A

    April 8,2014Optimization:HeuristicMethodsandApplications NatBrown 856/104

    April 10,2014 (Social) NetworkAnalysis TBD 856/104

    April 15,2014

    System ofSystemsModeling

    StudentProjectSelection

    Hai Le

    KevinStamber 880/D48A*

    April 17,2014 DigitalSystemAnalysis JacksonMayo 856/104

    April22,2014 ResilienceTheoryandApplication EricVugrin 856/104

    8* Session runs 3 PM to 5 PM MT; all others run 3 PM to 4:30 PM MT.

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSSyllabus

    Date Topic Instructor(s) Location

    April24,2014 SocialDynamics TomMoore 856/104

    April29,2014 SeriousGaming FredOppel 856/104

    May1,2014 BehavioralInfluenceAssessment MichaelBernard 856/104

    May6,2014 BREAK Prepareforpresentations

    May8,2014 BREAK Prepareforpresentations

    May13,2014 BREAK Prepareforpresentations

    May15,2014 BREAK Prepareforpresentations

    May20,2014 StudentPresentations Students 880/D48A

    May22,2014 StudentPresentations Students 856/104

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  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSClassProject

    Teamsofthree,ideally Takeoneofthesubjectsdiscussedintheclass Applytoaprobleminyourknowledgespaceorinterestarea Classlecturerswillbeavailabletoprovideassistance Willpresentaspartofoneofthreestudentlecturesessionstwo

    weeksafterfinalsubjectmatter Sessionwillbebyrandomdraw

    Teamidentificationby1April Projectidentificationby15April

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  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSWhatisaComplexSystem?

    Many(andoftenvarying)components DynamicInteraction

    Amongcomponents Withtheexternalworld

    Compositionanddecompositionintohierarchies Selforganizationintolevelswithcommonbehavior Fromthiswecanseeemergentbehavior

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  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSExamplesofComplexSystems

    Inreality,ratherthanaskingWhatisaComplexSystem?,themoreappropriatequestionisWhatisnt aComplexSystem?

    Communities People organsystems organs cells DNA Infrastructuresystems individualinfrastructures operating

    elementsofinfrastructure

    12

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSExamplesofComplexSystems

    13

    Financial Services

    Transportation

    EmergencyServices

    Healthcare and Public Health

    Energy

    Water

    Agriculture & Food

    ChemicalsTelecommunications

    Defense Industrial Base

    GovernmentFacilities

    CommercialFacilities

    Dams

    Critical Manufacturing

    Nuclear Facilities

    Information Technology

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSExamplesofComplexSystems

    14

    TransmissionSystem

    DistributionSystem

    UltimateCustomer

    ProductionSystem

    Basic Electric Power System

    TransformerGenerator SubstationTransformer

    DistributionLines

    TransmissionLines

    TransmissionSystem

    DistributionSystem

    UltimateCustomer

    ProductionSystem

    TransmissionSystem

    DistributionSystem

    UltimateCustomer

    ProductionSystem

    Basic Electric Power System

    TransformerTransformerGeneratorGenerator SubstationTransformerSubstation

    TransformerDistribution

    LinesDistribution

    LinesTransmission

    LinesTransmission

    Lines

    SystemOperation

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSExamplesofComplexSystems

    15

    Storage

    Irrigation

    Spillage

    Electric PowerGeneration

    HumanConsumption

    TreatiesRegulations

    Operating Rules

  • CSYS300 COMPLEXSYSTEMSFUNDAMENTALS,METHODS&APPLICATIONSExamplesofComplexSystemsFailures

    16Associated Press Archive - March 22, 2000, at http://newslibrary.com

    NW Airlines Loses Communication

    EAGAN, Minn. (AP) -- Northwest Airlines lost most of its communications lines systemwidefor about 2 1/2 hours Tuesday when an independent contractor hit a fiber-optic cable, leading to cancellations and delays around the country.

    Passengers aboard planes were not in danger, but Northwest temporarily suspended boarding additional flights until the problem was fixed, said spokeswoman Mary Beth Schubert.

    About 130 of the airline's 1,700 daily flights were canceled systemwide, and an undetermined number were delayed. Schubert said communications lines went down just after 2 p.m. CST, affecting reservations and baggage information and the airline's electronic ticketing system.

    Major delays were reported in Detroit, where about 30 flights were canceled, according to Northwest spokesman Doug Killian.

    Another 19 were canceled in Minneapolis, with the remainder scattered around the system. Some delays also were experienced in Singapore and Bangkok, he said.

    Northwest's Web site also was out of service because of the severed cable.

    Kim Bothun, a spokesman for U S West, the telecom that owns the fiber-optic cable, said the line was cut by a competitor McLeod USA, a local and lon