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CSLS Panel Lise Getoor Computer Science Department University of California, Santa Cruz August 30, 2016 @lgetoor

CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

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Page 1: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

CSLS Panel

Lise Getoor Computer Science Department

University of California, Santa Cruz

August 30, 2016

@lgetoor

Page 2: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

ML

Page 3: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

CSLS data is multi-modal, multi-relational, spatio-temporal, multi-media

Page 4: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM
Page 5: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

NEED: ML methods that take into account relational context

Page 6: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

CSLS ML Patterns

IndividualDyads

CommunitySociety

PredictiveIntervention

xModel Type Social Context

Page 7: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Predictive Models ¢  Individual

l  Personalized recommendation •  e.g., use CSS information to improve user-level predictions

¢  Dyad l  Link recommendation

•  e.g., recommend collaboration/trust links based on CSS

¢  Community l  Ecosystem optimization

•  e.g., team formation, optimize role assignment to a group

¢  Society l  Predict tipping points

•  e.g., when will everyone own electric cars? Collective: predictions depend on each other

Page 8: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Interventions ¢  Support what/if analysis: if an intervention/treatment

was made, what would be the outcome l  Benefits from a causal model

¢  Possible interventions: l  New: information, social interaction, group membership

¢  Challenges in CSLS: social interference l  Outcomes of treatments may not be independent

•  E.g., get out the vote, HIV treatment

Optimize: engagement, health, cost

Page 9: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Models that Support Interventions ¢  Individual

l  Treatment recommendation ¢  Dyads

l  Which links to make to maximize information flow ¢  Community

l  Which members to recruit to optimize group performance, e.g. support groups

¢  Society l  Which individuals to ‘flip’ in order to change

population level outcomes

Page 10: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

bias

Page 11: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Bias: Three Interpretations ¢  Sampling Bias

l  Subset of the population overrepresented in data ¢  Statistical Bias

l  Bias-Variance Tradeoff: •  Want model that accurately captures the regularities in its training data and also

generalizes well to unseen data •  impossible to do both simultaneously •  High-variance learning methods may be able to represent their training set well,

but are at risk of overfitting to noisy or unrepresentative training data. •  Algorithms with high bias typically produce simpler models but may underfit their

training data, failing to capture important regularities.

¢  Ethical Bias l  Fairness, equity

¢  CSLS Bias?

These interact in

complex ways!

Interpretability is important

Page 12: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM
Page 13: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

ethics

Page 14: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

social engineering (noun) :a discipline in social science that refers to efforts influence particular

attitudes and social behaviors on a large scale, whether by governments, media or private groups in order to produce desired outcomes in a

target population.

Page 15: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Challenges ¢  Who defines social good? ¢  Dimensions

l  Personal good l  Collective good l  Societal good

¢  Aligning incentives to maximize benefit

Page 16: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

CSLS

Page 17: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Research Opportunities #1 ¢  ML

l  Most ML methods designed for independent, identifiably distributed data (IID) represented as a table

l  Often need causal models, not just predictive models l  Models need to be able to handle social interference

¢  Social Science l  How to mix psychological with sociological models?

Social and geographic? Social and political? l  How to mix big data (ML), small data (ethnographic) and

social science theory? l  How does culture affect data? Affect context?

Page 18: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Research Opportunities #2 ¢  Human in the loop

l  Human in the data l  Human in the system

¢  Communities and societies in the loop l  Human*s* l  Develop new systems engineering science for

understanding how people and data and systems interact

l  And how to improve systems over time

Page 19: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Research Opportunities #3

¢  There are common abstractions that go across a broad number of the most compelling cyber-social systems domains including heath, education, smart cites, citizen engagement and more

¢  Three Cs: l  Context l  Comparative modeling l  Collective reasoning

Page 20: CSLS Panel - CRA..." Collective reasoning Double Loop Opportunity! Title Getoor-CSLS-Panel-Aug2016-v2.pptx Author Lise Getoor Created Date 8/30/2016 11:27:01 PM

Double Loop

Opportunity!