The New “Great Game: How China is challenging Russia’s hegemony in Central Asia in the post-Soviet era

A BRIEF NOTE ON THE TITLE

The “Great Game” mentioned in the title alludes to the quondam fierce rivalry between Britain and Russia for supremacy in Central Asia. China’s stance in Central Asia is deemed to be an apt successor of Britain, as China’s international reputation can be said to rival Britain.

INTRODUCTION

The influences and powers-to-be that shape Central Asia have always been fluid. From great empires of renown to potential future world powers, they have all made their mark indelibly one way or another in the belly of Asia. Historically, Central Asia has always been subject to the rule of one or more colonial powers in the preceding centuries.

Despite many former colonies throughout the world having been granted independence, Central Asia still remains under the shadow of its former colonial power: Russia. Russia has continued to maintain a key strategic and political interest in the region; this has continued even following it having relinquished its claims to the territories following the dissolution of the USSR and the signing of the Belavezha Accords. Although the states are independent in name, Russia continues to maintain close relations with them through the Commonwealth of Independent States. As such, Russia still has a foothold in the erstwhile Soviet Central Asia states.

The Central Asia states are namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan as well as Afghanistan. The former five were under the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the latter was under 14 years of Soviet influence as the (Communist) Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.

Having experienced unprecedented economic growth in the decades following Deng’s reforms, China is now seeking to re-establish its prestige as the “Middle Kingdom”; it has always fostered a superiority complex for several millennia. With a strong military, China looks to reassert its former influence by force. Yet, it has adopted a softer stance, by using soft power instead; this has entailed greater economic cooperation between Central Asia and China through policies such as the “One Belt One Road” strategy. The policy has been said to be an extension of the “Go West” policy that China has previously (and still continues to be) adapted.

The current paper will attempt to critically analyse the gaps left by Russia’s withdrawal and how China is exploiting them. There are many reasons behind China’s decision to forge new ties with Central Asia, and the question is: “Will this cooperation bring great benefit to all signatories, or will China disproportionately benefit from the endeavour?” Furthermore, three questions are asked: 1) Does the implementation of the “One Belt One Road” strategy in Central Asia parallel China’s efforts to “Go West” to Xinjiang and Tibet? 2) Has there historically been more change or continuity in

China’s stance on Central Asia? 3) What are the major political, economic and social ramifications on Asia, and even the World, following the implementation of the “One Belt One Road” strategy?

Shifting influences in:

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan