CRTI Annual Project Review CRTI Project 02-0093 RDNovember 30, 2004

• Introduction Project Champion Dr Michel Béland – Project– Project Review Committee CRTI secretariat Mr Ted Sykes

• Project Review Project Manager– Project Recommendations– Project Background Information– Rolls of Project Partners – Project Status and Accomplishments – Schedule / Milestone Review– Financial Review – Costs to Date– Financial Review – Forecast Project Costs– Review of Constraints and Assumptions– Detailed Risk Review– Recovery Plan Schedule– Recovery Plan Financial– Project Summary and Conclusions– Summary of Actions– Project Recommendations

• Project Performance Feedback Project Champion Dr Michel Béland• Discussion (full Committee) Project Review Committee• Core Member Discussion and Decisions PRC Core Members• Action Review Project Manager• Close Project Champion Dr Michel Béland

AGENDA

The Project

The objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) to minimize the consequences based on a pre-determined decision making framework.

Core Members:

Project Champion: Dr Michel Béland

*Project Manager: Mr Michel Jean

*AECL Management Representative: Mr Ken Dortmut (in lieu of Mr Andrew White)

Health Canada Management Representative: Dr Jack Cornett

Environment Canada Management Representatives: Mr Peter Chen (Mr Michel Jean acting), Dr Keith Puckett, Mr Jim Abraham (Dr Gilbert Brunet acting)

Defence Research and Development Canada (Suffield) Dr Kent Harding

Associate Members:

Portfolio Manager: Mr Ted Sykes

PWGSC Representative: Al Toren

Deputy Project Manager: Mr Réal D’Amours

Recording Secretary: Mr Richard Hogue

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE

• Proceed with Project on recovery plan to meet Project Charter goals and to modify the Project Charter, if required, according to guidance received

• The recovery plan is financial in nature and is intended to allow the spending of a fraction of the monies rolled over from last year

• There are several minor changes to the charter mostly related to changes to the signing partners as well as changes to the in-kind contributions. Completions dates remain unchanged

PROJECT RECOMMENDATIONS

• The Project Review Committee recommend that project CRTI 02 0093RD continue as planned with minor adjustments

• We are still anticipating a number of changes in the signing partners within the next 6-12 months; at what point in the changes over the next six months do we modify the Charter? The current recommendation is to change it early and if needed change it a second time.

• How to ensure the rollover money does not exceed the 10% accepted by CRTI

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS

The release of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agents by terrorists or rogue states in a North American city (densely populated urban centre) and the subsequent exposure, deposition, and contamination are emerging threats in an uncertain world. The transport, dispersion, deposition, and fate of a CBRN agent released in an urban environment is an extremely complex problem that encompasses potentially multiple space and time scales (e.g., a chemical agent may have a hazard range of only several to tens of kilometers, a biological agent may pose hazards over a range of several hundreds of kilometers, whereas radiological and nuclear agents may result in a hazard range of several to tens of thousands of kilometers). The availability of high-fidelity, time-dependent models for the prediction of a CBRN agent’s movement and fate in a complex urban environment can provide the strongest technical and scientific foundation for support of Canada’s more broadly based effort at advancing counter-terrorism planning and operational capabilities.

PROJECT BACKGROUND

Rolls of Project Partners

• Health Canada – Radiation Protection Bureau• Environment Canada

– Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Directorate (Recherche en Prévisions Numériques)

– Atmospheric Environment Prediction Directorate (Canadian Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada Quebec Region)

• Atomic Energy of Canada Limited• DRDC Suffield• J.D. Wilson and Associates• CFD Engineering Consulting Ltd

•Project Charter Approval

•SOW/Contracts (the late signing of the contracts has minimal impacts on the deliverables)

•Staff have been hired

•Two technical meetings have taken place and one general project meeting held in October 2004

•One presentation at CRTI Summer symposium

•Linkages with CRTI 0080 TA (ARGOS) has been tested

•Capabilities and tools tested during avian influenza epidemic (Spring 2004), FNEP TAG exercise (June 2004)

•Linkages with other CRTI proposals (CRTI 02 0041RD, CRTI 02 0053RD, CRTI 02 0066RD and CRTI 03 0018RD

PROJECT STATUS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS

SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW

See PRC Meeting attachment 2 general milestones and PRC Meeting attachment 3 detailled milestones

FINANCIAL REVIEW – PROJECT COSTS

See PRC meeting attachment 1.doc

3.3 Project AssumptionsThe Project Plan assumes that:

Funding as approved under the project will remain available and disbursed on time.Start date of research and development for components 1 and 4 is based on having a

contract in place with PWGSC by August 1, 2003. A delay in contract award will have a direct affect on start and end dates of these two research and development activities.

New and qualified personnel will be hired (or the process to be fairly advanced) by 1 September 2003. Delays have occurred with minor or no impacts on the project.

Key existing personnel will be available throughout the project. Key equipment (computing infrastructure) and key datasets will be available.3.4 Project ConstraintsA significant component of the Validation phase of the project (component 5) is

constrained by the availability of flow and dispersion data sets to be acquired during JUT 2003 in Oklahoma City.Delays have happened in the US with the OKC database; some delays are expected

Development of the winter validation database through the Montréal 2005 winter experiment

PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS AND CONSTRAINTS

RISK REVIEW

See PRC Meeting attachment 4 risk review.doc

RECOVERY PLAN - SCHEDULE AND FINANCIAL

• FY 2003-2004 has been $203,000.00– Delays with contracting and hiring

– Could not buy equipment for the Montréal field experiment to validate project component 2 under winter conditions

• FY 04-05 resources expected to be totally spent• Currently assessing how much of last year roll over monies can be used

– Will likely be in the range of 100K

• Both of the tables (schedule and finances) are currently being worked on by all partners.

• Project well underway with various connectivity to other CRTI project and similar initiatives going on in the US and in Europe

• Development done close to an operational environment

•New developments being used for real-time response e.g. avian influenza and sulfur trioxid release

PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Action Prime Date

Description of Action Person Responsible Completion Date

SUMMARY OF ACTIONS

• Proceed with Project on recovery plan to meet Project Charter goals and to modify the Project Charter, if required, according to guidance received

• The recovery plan is financial in nature and is intended to allow the spending of a fraction of the monies rolled over from last year

• There are several minor changes to the charter mostly related to changes to the signing partners as well as changes to the in-kind contributions. Completions dates remain unchanged

PROJECT RECOMMENDATIONS

• The Project Review Committee recommend that project CRTI 02 0093RD continue as planned with minor adjustments

• We are still anticipating a number of changes in the signing partners within the next 6-12 months; at what point in the changes over the next six months do we modify the Charter? The current recommendation is to change it early and if needed change it a second time.

• How to ensure the rollover money does not exceed the 10% accepted by CRTI

PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS

• Add Decisions of Project Review Committee at or after meeting to complete slide package

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PROJECT REVIEW COMMITTEE DECISIONS