Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Crossing Over from IT to Business-Oriented Project
Management
Alex S. Brown, PMPStrategic Planning Office Manager
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group, [email protected]
The IT “Gold Rush” is Over!
Thank Steve McConnell for giving us a preview…
Former Internet CEO
Where Ian
Lives Now
Overview of Today’s Presentation
• Debunk the Myth that IT EMPLOYMENT Growth is Inevitable
• What to do in the face of declining employment?– One Choice: Become a true IT
Professional– Second Choice: Business-Oriented PM
• How to thrive either way
Employment Trends in IT
• Incredible year-over-year growth• A “slowdown” has meant SLOWER
GROWTH• Exponential growth in the number
of computers• Exponential growth in computing
power
Debunking the Myth
THE MYTH:More powerful technology will require
more and more people to manage it
THE FACTS:Growth of power, quantity, and unit sales of computers does NOT mean automatic employment growth for IT
Typical Computer Industry Growth Chart
• Exponential growth• Declining cost• Increasing revenue• No limits, or limits in
the far, far future• Focus on hardware
The future is bright!!
1.0E+00
1.0E+02
1.0E+04
1.0E+06
1.0E+08
1.0E+10
1.0E+12
1.0E+14
1.0E+16
1.0E+18
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ProcessorSpeedHard Drive Size
RAM Capacity
US Computer Economy
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990 1995 2000
# o
f E
mp
loye
es (
1000
s)
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
# o
f C
om
pu
ters
(10
00s)
Comp Svcs
PCs ShippedYearlyComputers inUse
Data from US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; ITU 2003 Yearbook of Statistics; and Jeremy Reimer PC Market Share Study
US Telecom Economy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990 1995 2000
# o
f E
mp
loye
es (
1000
s)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
# o
f L
ines
(10
00s)
Telecom Employment
Telephone lines andcellular subscribers
Data from US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and ITU 2003 Yearbook of Statistics
Common Ground with IT and Telecom
• Both industries technology-driven, information-based
• Growth in computing power has revolutionized both industries
• What was “extra cost” has become “standard” year after year
• Lower costs lead to an unending spiral of ruthless competition, eliminating profit
Why Telecom May Show the Future
• Telecom was already pervasive in the 1970s, much like computers are now…
• How much of the total non-farm employment can possibly go to information-based services?
• Automation allows fewer people to manage more telephone lines AND more computers
Impact of Offshore Outsourcing
• How high would US employment be without offshore outsourcing?
"The best-known report, by Forrester Research, a consultancy, guesses that 3.3m American service-industry jobs will have gone overseas by 2015—barely noticeable when you think about the 7m-8m lost every quarter through job-churning.”
--The Economist, “The Great Hollowing-Out Myth”, Feb 19, 2004
• Impact is perhaps 100,000 to 200,000 per year on ALL US service industry employment, vs. over 2MM total US Comp Services employment and over 130MM non-farm US jobs total
Some Words of Warning
"After 25 years of strong growth, the PC industry has reached maturity and its future growth will be determined by economic conditions. Future PC unit sales growth will remain below 10% and economic recessions will produce PC sales contractions as we saw in 2001.”
--Computer Industry Almanac Press Release, “Future PC Sales: Up and Down”, Aug 27, 2002 http://www.c-i-a.com/pr0802.htm
Lessons from a Mature Economy
• Employment growth is not guaranteed– Not from technical breakthroughs– Not from subscriber or user growth– Not from increasing power or
capabilities
• Product growth is possible in the face of STAGNANT or DECLINING employment
Drivers of IT Employment Growth
• Punch cards in the 1940s• Electronic computing in the 1950s• Personal Computers and DOS in the
1980s• Graphical User Environments and
Windows in the 1990s• Enterprise Management Software
and the Internet since the mid 1990s
An Uncertain Outlook
• What is the next great breakthrough?• The Internet quickly gave up its
“breakthrough” momentum…Will it pick up steam or slow down?
• Has IT had its last great “gold rush”?• Will future employment level off or
even decline, like telecommunications?
• Will declining prices wipe out profit?
Choices for the IT Project Manager
• Embrace IT and become a true IT professional
• Explore new industries, spreading project management beyond IT
Choose now, before the marketplace decides for you…
Drive to Professionalism in IT
• Why the Internet boom hurt professionalism
• Certification, degrees and professional societies
• Reasons to be EXCITED about the end of the IT Gold Rush
Why the Internet Boom Hurt Professionalism
• Internet boom caused instant demand for programmers
• Premium paid for knowing the latest fad
• Salary differential between experienced, highly-trained staff and newcomers narrowed
• “I got into IT because it pays well.”
You Can Set a New Standard
• Professional Society Memberships• Certification
– PMP for project management– Seek out certification for technical
fields• Degree-granting programs
– Masters in IT Management– Masters or Doctorate in a technical
specialty
Get EXCITED About The End of The Gold Rush
• Sloppy, unskilled coworkers will leave• Increased premium for experience• Large-scale, long-term projects
possible• Good business cases can beat hot
technology• Paid in cash instead of often-
worthless stock options
Why Business-Oriented PM?
• Capitalize on strong management skills
• Move to an industry you LOVE
• Avoid the upcoming changes in IT
• Bring project management to new industries and departments
Bridges to a New World
• Reputation for logic and structure• Value of controls and security• Sarbanes-Oxley requirements• Business transformation and
reengineering• IT is everywhere, opening doors
Making the Change
• Define your skills– Translate PM and IT jargon– Focus on highest-level, cross-over skills
• Pursue opportunities– What industries underutilize PM?– Where does an IT background enhance
your reputation?– Who knows my target industries?
Adjusting to a Non-IT PM Role
• Am I still a “Project Manager”?
• What skills do I need to keep?
• What preconceptions do I need to give up?
• What do I need to learn?
Am I Still A “Project Manager”?
• Project managers use and need skills in– Operations management– Financial management– General management– Leadership
• Even if your title is no longer “Project Manager” you can still do the job
• Embrace the change
Keep Core Skills and Discipline
• Go back to the Standards– PM Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)– Work Breakdown Structure– Organizational PM Maturity
• Study areas you used rarely in IT
Work Breakdown Structures
• Can no longer rely on familiar patterns for WBS
• Non-IT projects have their own life cycle
• Experiment with new life-cycles• Do not force business projects into
IT templates
Travel Light – Discard Extra Baggage
• Avoid IT jargon – use it appropriately• Question the need for “essential
tools”• Do not assume basic PM knowledge
in coworkers – be ready to educate them
• Cultivate business contacts and allies, not just IT ones
What to Learn?
• Become a professional in your industry– Professional societies– Certification– Degree programs
• How to sell PM to management• Newest research on PMO and OPM3• Keep IT expertise – it will help you
Be Ready for Anything!
…because you never know what is around the corner…
End of The IT Gold Rush…
…but possibly the start of a new era for you and for project management
Crossing Over from IT to Business-Oriented Project
Management
Alex S. Brown, PMPStrategic Planning Office Manager
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group, [email protected]
