Cross-Strait Relations

By: Annie Boyenneh, Jackie Quander and Seunghee

Hwang

+People’s Republic of China (PRC)

■ Location : Eastern Asia

■ Population : 1,355,692,576

■ Ethnic groups: Han Chinese (91.6%), Zhuang (1.3%), other (the Chinese government officially recognizes 56 ethnic groups 7.1%)

■ Languages: Standard Chinese or Mandarin (official), Putonghua (Beijing dialect), Yue (Cantonese), Wu (Shanghainese), Minbei (Fuzhou), Minnan (Hokkien-Taiwanese), Xiang, Gan, Hakka dialects, minority languages

■ Government type: Communist state

■ Chief of State : President XI Jinping

+Republic of China (ROC)■ Location : Eastern China, islands bordering the East China Sea

■ Population : 23,359,928

■ Ethnic groups : Taiwanese (including Hakka 84%) , mainland Chinese (14%), Indigenous (2%)

■ Languages : Mandarin Chinese (official), Taiwanese (Min), Hakka dialects

■ Government type : Multiparty democracy

■ Chief of state : President MA Ying-jeou

■ Debate on Taiwan independence has become acceptable within the mainstream of domestic politics of Taiwan, Public opinion polls consistently show a substantial majority of Taiwan people supports maintaining Taiwan’s status quo for the foreseeable future

+Strait Outta..Taiwan

■ AKA the Black Ditch■ 110 miles wide■ Closest Chinese province Fujian

+ Taiwan Demographics

0-14 years: 14%

15-24 years: 13.4%

25-54 years: 47.4%

55-64 years: 13.2%

65 years and over: 11.6% Population growth:0.25% (2014 est.)

+ China Demographics

0-14 years: 17.1%

15-24 years: 14.7%

25-54 years: 47.2%

55-64 years: 11.3%

65 years and over: 9.4%

Population Growth:0.44% (2014 est.)

+

The Separation (China-PRC) Vs. (Taiwan ROC)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZqVv2wj6C4

+“One China” Policy

■ The “one China” Policy emphasis on the notion that there is only one China

■ Since 1971, U.S. Presidents—both secretly and publicly—have articulated a “one China” policy in understandings with the PRC

■ Not recognizing the PRC’s claim over Taiwan or Taiwan as a sovereign state, U.S. policy has considered Taiwan’s status as unsettled.

■ U.S. policy focuses on the process of resolution of the Taiwan question, not any set outcome.

■ Taiwan as an inalienable state

+U.S-China Joint communiqués■ 1972 Communiqué (Joint U.S.-China Communiqué Issued at Shanghai,

1972)■ Principles of international relations

■ 1979 Communiqué (Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, January 1, 1979■ The establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979■ Reaffirm the principles of international relations■ Broaden the understanding between two people: science technology,

culture, sports and journalism■ Bilateral trade for mutual benefit■ Stay in contact through various channels

■ 1982 communiqué (Joint U.S.-China Communiqué, August 17, 1982)■ U.S arms sale to Taiwan

+Taiwan Relation Act

■ The Taiwan Relations Act has governed U.S. policy in the absence of a diplomatic relationship or a defense treaty

■ Preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between US-Taiwan■ TRA was the mandate to continue past

agreements and preserve the status quo regarding Taiwan’s place in U.S. law

■ To declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern

■ provide the continuation of “unofficial” diplomatic ties between the two societies.

+The Sunflower Movement

■ Student movement 2014

■ protested passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA)

■ hurt Taiwan’s trading power

■ damage Taiwan’s credibility

■ proponents cite increased economic relations

■ establishment of a law for supervising cross-strait agreements before passing the recent trade in services pact

■ 500,000 protesters

■ stormed legislature for sit-in

+Between a ROC and a Hard Place■ Taiwan military formed after WW2■ Main goal: take back mainland China

■ Project National Glory 1965-1972■ response to Great Leap Forward failure and

Vietnam incursion, China nuclear potential

■ Five Military Campaigns: Frontal area of the enemy, Rear area special warfare, Surprise attack, Take advantage of counterattack, Come to aid against tyranny

■ 1971 - UN votes to replace ROC government with PRC as legal representative of China

+ROC Army

■ 26 large surface combatants

■ Air Force Superiority

■ air defense capabilities

■ 5.8 million personnel

■ US Sales

■ diesel submarines

■ maritime patrol

■ Black Hawk Helis

■ Apache Helis

■ Upgrade F-16s

+3 Taiwan Strait Crises1954-55: PRC seized the Yijiangshan Islands, forcing the ROC to abandon the Tachen Islands. ■ 60,000 PRC troops in Matsu, threat of US nuclear forces■ Formosa Resolution - Eisenhower unilateral action

1958: PRC shelled Kinmen and Matsu islands■ US threatened nuclear response■ PLA ran out of artillery shells, forced into stalemate

1995-96■ Missile tests by PRC in waters surrounding Taiwan ■ Taiwanese President visited Cornell, denied a visa, then reversed■ China upset, conducted missile tests 60 kilometers north of ROC-

held Pengjia Islet. ■ ammunition and amphibious assault exercises■ US order increased naval presence in the region

+People’s Liberation Army■ 2.3 million personnel

■ Liaoning

■ Formed as Red Army of Workers and Peasants to fight ROC forces

■ 150 tanks; 6,600 armored vehicles, 1,200 self-propelled howitzer, 10,000 mortar, 4,000 multibarrel rocket launchers, 6,246 towed howitzers, 1,531 antiaircraft artillery， 8,000 anti-tank warfare and 453 helicopters

+Exceeding the need for self-defense■ Stationed over 1,400 tactical ballistic and cruise missiles

along southeastern coastline■ ability to launch multiple salvos of precision strikes

■ Reconnaissance satellites, maritime patrol aircraft, and over-the-horizon radar (OTHR)

■ Over 60 satellites in orbit for military navigation and positioning, scientific research, meteorological purposes, and reconnaissance and communications

■ Overt surveillance from shoreline provinces

■ Shore-based long-range anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles to blockade Taiwan

■ Acquisition of large landing ships and hovercraft to occupy outlying islands and invade if necessary

+US Arms Sales 2005-2010

+International Security■ US counterterrorism ags. at ports through Taiwan’s

agreements ‘06 to participate in the Container Security Initiative (CSI)

■ Megaports Initiative - detection of nuclear and radioactive materials in cargo

■ Taiwan’s cooperation in nuclear and missile nonproliferation efforts especially concerning Iran and North Korea■ asked a Taiwan shipping company not to allow its ship to

transfer suspected weapons related cargo in Malaysia that North Korea shipped via China bound for Burma (Myanmar). Japan then seized the cargo

■ 2013, Taiwan increased the volume of crude oil imported from Iran by 8.9%,

■ East China Sea Peace Initiative - Taipei-Tokyo, Taipei-Beijing, and Beijing-Tokyo

+De Jure■ US does not support de jure Taiwan independence

■ supports its participation in international orgs. ■ World Trade Organization,

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and the Asian Development Bank,

■ Taipei willing to host national missile defense radars to be tied into the American system - not paying

+China’s Economic system

■ The world's 2nd largest economy.

■ The most dominant sector of China’s economy :

manufacturing and industries

■ The world’s largest producer of agricultural products.

■ The world’s 2nd largest trading nation.

■ China’s economy is growing into multiple new sectors.

+Taiwan’s economic system■ The world's 18th largest economy.

■ Main Industry : Computer hardware, software, telecommunications and other knowledge-based industries.

■ The world's second-largest producers of ICT(information Communication Technology) goods.

The top 10 exports

Taiwan’s economic system○ Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on trade.○ The United States remains Taiwan's single most important trade partner. Also, trade

with mainland China expanded rapidly.○ Taiwan has tried to expand trade, amid concern about the proliferation of regional

and bilateral FTAs that exclude.

Annual Change in Taiwan’s Real GDP and Real Exports of Goods andServices: 2005-2013

+Cross-Strait Economic Ties■ In order to take advantage of economic growth and to improve the

chances of Taiwan entering into FTAs with other countries, the Ma administration has sought to liberalize cross-strait trade and investment barriers.

■ In 2010, the two sides signed the ECFA(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) that seeks to significantly liberalize trade and investment barriers over time.

■ The China as a trading partner for Taiwan is significant and has been growing rapidly.

■ China is central to the supply chains of Taiwanese manufacturers, and 80 percent of Taiwanese foreign direct investment goes to China.

■ Taiwanese businesses have invested an estimated $150 billion in the mainland since 1988. In 2009, Taiwan opened up one hundred of its industries to mainland investments.

+Cross-Strait Economic Ties

■ Taiwan's efforts to negotiate FTAs with its major trading partners have proven unsuccessful, because of political opposition by China.

■ Growing economic integration with the PRC has raised concerns.

+Discussion Questions!

● Does America have an obligation to defend Taiwan if it's attacked?

● What ways can the Taiwanese government further protect itself from PLA incursion?

● Should the Chinese be subject to international sanctions if military exercises within the Strait?

● Do you see an imbalance of military capability between the world’s top superpowers and other countries shifting to an eventual global conflict?

● How responsible is China to be globally transparent about its military growth?

+FIN

+ Work Cited■ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/not

esanddefs.html?fieldkey=2144&alphaletter=L&term=Location

■ http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/china■ U.S.-Taiwan Relationship: Overview of Policy Issues■ http://cmsad.um.edu.my/images/ics/IJCSV2N3/IJCSV2N3-chiang.pd

f■ http://www.choices.edu/resources/documents/ch_3.pdf■ http://www.cfr.org/taiwan/taiwan-relations-act/p8454