MDSSMaintenance Decision Support SystemRoad Weather Forecasting System

Ing. Tomas Pospisek

Head of Sales

CROSS Zlín, a.s., Czech Republic

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CROSS Company

Road traffic technology manufacturer since 1994

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Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support

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APPLIED FORECAST

Key approach to maintenance decision support

HISTORICAL DATA

CURRENTDATA

WEATHER FORECAST

…built up on expert knowledge of processes between atmosphere and the pavement

↘ Sophisticated perspective of future road conditions

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Definition and motivation

• Complex road weather forecasting system• Precise short-term local forecast of road slipperiness• Synthesized and clear graphic information so the

decision-making is truly simplified

To support the right decisions

To increase safety on the

roads

To support material savings

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MDSS key features

• Integration of all relevant information sources• Every hour• With 1 hour step• For upcoming 24 hours• For each 1 km of the road network

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Maintenance Decision Support System

Online packageLocal geodatabase

Thermal mapping

Geographical info

Expert information

Traffic flow data

Road construction

Weather prediction model

Weather stations

Maintenance data

Floating Car Data

Traffic flow data

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Thermal mapping of the road surface

• Full-featured utilization• Spatial variations of minimum night-time road surface

temperature• Highest spatial detail compared to other sources

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Maintenance dataRoad condition

Road condition

PERFORMED TREATMENT

WITHOUT MAINTENANCE

MAINTENANCE DATAINCORPORATED

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Model outputs

• Road condition• Road surface temperature• Snow amount • Freezing point

HazardousSlipperinessDrifting snow – alarmDrifting snow – warningSnowMoist, wetDry

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Selective maintenance

• Basic processing unit is road stretch of 1 km length• Accurate local prediction of road slipperiness• Precisely targeted maintenance intervention on

particular risky place within the road network

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MDSS in the Czech Republic

• Highways 250 km• Ist class 1537 km• IInd class 3960 km

• 2007 - 2011• 5900 segments• 70 + 25 weather sites

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Regular accuracy evaluation

• Temperature error in first 4 hours of forecast• Season 2009/2010 in the Pardubice region

No. cases

Tolerance

55 % ± 1 °C

78 % ± 2 °C

96 % ± 5 °C

5 % ACCURATE AT 1 DEC. PLACE

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Mean and mean absolute error in road surface temperature forecast in 2009/2010 in the Pardubice region for all road weather stations

OFTEN OPTIMISTICOFTEN PESSIMISTIC

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Error in road condition forecast in 2009/2010 in the Pardubice region for all road weather stations

BAD

GOOD

User output

25th January 2011

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User output

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Ready-made extensions

Maintenance map

• accumulates maintenance data from last several hours to show the overview of performed treatment

Station forecast graphs

• for all stations in a region

MDSSMaintenance Decision Support SystemRoad Weather Forecasting System

Ing. Tomas JURIK

Chief Executive Officer

CROSS Zlín, a.s., Czech Republic