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Cristopher Brown Director General
DeBruce Grain de México Gavilon Marubeni
México and Sorghum
I have been involved in moving sorghum from Texas to Mexico since 1989.
The Texas sorghum producer has the great fortune to be next door
neighbors with Mexico.
The Mexico animal feeders have the great fortune to be next door
neighbors with Texas.
U.S. grain producing states, including Texas, produce more grain than needed for naDonal consumpDon. The U.S. is a grain surplus country and has to export. Mexico consumes more grain than it can produce. Mexico is a a grain deficit country and has to import. The challenge and opportunity is to get the surplus grain from the U.S. to the grain deficit in Mexico in the most efficient and Dmely manner possible.
THE FREIGHT ADVANTAGE OF PROXIMITY
1) Truck 2) Large rail units (110 cars) 3) Single rail cars 4) 25 or 50 car rail units 5) Vessel
SAN YSIDRO
MEXICO PORT OF IMPORTS
GULF & PACIFIC PORTS
RAIL PORTS
GUAYMAS
MANZANILLO
LZO. CARDENAS
MEXICO SORGHUM PRODUCTION
ANNUAL PRODUCTION
MT
2009 6.8
2010 6.9
2011 6.7
2012 7.0
2013 6.3
MEXICO SORGHUM HARVEST
MEXICO SORGHUM CONSUMPTION
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MT MT MT MT MT
Mexico Production 6.8 6.9 6.7 7.0 6.3
Imported 2.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.2
TOTAL 9.3 9.1 9.1 8.9 7.5
MEXICO SORGHUM IMPORTS
2.5 2.2 2.4
1.9 1.2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions of Metric Tons
SORGHUM IMPORTS RAIL - TRUCK - VESSEL
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 MT MT MT MT MT
PROGRESO Truck 457 330 457 433 300
EL PASO Rail 302 422 279 13 50 LAREDO Rail 344 134 103 43 40
VERACRUZ Vessel 856 824 955 797 411
PGO, YUC Vessel 329 406 257 174 167
OTHER Vessel 241 174 351 478 261
TOTAL 2,529 2,289 2,403 1,938 1,229
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TRUCK 18% 14% 19% 22% 24% RAIL 26% 24% 16% 3% 7%
VESSEL 56% 62% 65% 75% 69%
MEXICO CORN PRODUCTION
ANNUAL PRODUCTION
MT
2009 20.2
2010 22.4
2011 17.2
2012 21.9
2013 23.2
MEXICO YELLOW AND WHITE CORN HARVEST
MEXICO CORN CONSUMPTION
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
000´s MT MT MT MT MT
Mexico Production 20.2 22.4 17.2 21.9 23.2
Import 7.3 7.9 9.8 10.8 7.2
TOTAL 27.5 30.3 27.0 32.7 30.4
CORN IMPORTS
7.3 7.9
9.8 10.8
7.2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions of Metric Tons
CORN AND SORGHUM IMPORTS
7.3 7.9
9.8 10.8
7.2
2.5 2.2 2.4 1.9
1.2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MIllions of Metric Tons
CORN IMPORTS RAIL VS. VESSEL
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 MT MT MT MT MT
Progreso Truck 91 66 91 87 60 EL PASO Rail 1,056 1,860 1,649 2,575 794 LAREDO Rail 2,008 2,584 2,899 3,230 2,520
EAGLE PASS Rail 1,031 764 1,138 483 468 VERACRUZ Vessel 1,946 1,277 2,018 2,266 1,486
TUXPAN Vessel 234 224 236 310 311 OTHER Vessel 993 1,198 1,790 1,853 1,551
TOTAL 7,360 7,974 9,822 10,804 7,191
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TRUCK 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% RAIL 56% 65% 58% 58% 53%
VESSEL 43% 34% 41% 41% 47%
OPTIONS AVAILABLE TO MEXICAN ANIMAL FEEDERS
1) Mexican Grown Sorghum 2) Truck Imported Sorghum 3) Rail Imported Sorghum 4) Vessel Imported Sorghum 5) Mexican Grown Corn (Yellow and White) 6) Truck Imported Yellow Corn 7) Rail Imported Yellow Corn 8) Vessel Imported Yellow Corn 9) Mexican Grown Wheat 10) Mexican Grown Barley
While Mexican animal feeders do not like to jump back and forth from one grain to another, they have proven to be more flexible than U.S. animal feeders in this respect.
As a rule of thumb, Mexican feeders will put sorghum into the feed raYon at around 90% of the cost of yellow corn. This is on a delivered to their feed mill basis.
Mexico Import Tarrifs
For NAFTA countries (U.S. and Canada) Mexico has no import duYes on the import of grains.
For all Non-‐NAFTA countries Mexico has the following import duYes on grains:
• White Corn 20% • Sorghum 15% from May 16 to December 15 • Yellow Corn No import duYes
Mexico Imports Of DisYllers’ Dried Grain with Solubles
1999 22,000 2006 367,000 2000 36,000 2007 708,000 2001 31,000 2008 1,189,000 2002 31,000 2009 1,458,000 2003 46,000 2010 1,651,000 2004 67,000 2011 1,774,000 2005 128,000 2012 1,499,000 2013 1,285,000
WHAT TO EXPECT FOR 2014
1) Mexico should have good feed grain crops 2) The U.S. and Texas look to have good crops 3) So far very high cost of rail freight out of the
U.S. has limited grain movement from U.S. to Mexico
4) China?????