CrisisWatch N°123

8/14/2019 CrisisWatch N123

1/12

A monthly bulletin by Crisis Group on current and potential con icts around the world

Crisis Watch

Crisis Group is an independent, non-prot, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on ve continents, workingthrough eld-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conict. Crisis Groups approach is grounded ineld research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violentconict. Based on information and assessments from the eld, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practicalrecommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired byformer U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is formerUN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

summarises briey developments during the previous monthin some 70 situations of current or potential conict, listedalphabetically by region, providing references and links tomore detailed information sources (all references mentionedare hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);

assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur-ing the previous month, signicantly deteriorated, signicantlyimproved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;

alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, thereis a particular risk of new or signicantly escalated conict,or a particular conict resolution opportunity (noting that insome instances there may in fact be both); and

summarises Crisis Groups reports and brieng papers thathave been published in the last month.

CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Groups Brussels ResearchUnit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of oursome 140 staff members across ve continents, who alreadyreport on some 60 of the situations listed here. Commentsand suggestions can be sent to [email protected].

To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases andresources page at www.crisisgroup.org .

Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations

Unchanged Situations

Conict Risk Alerts Conict ResolutionOpportunities

Afghanistan (5), Algeria (11), Armenia (8), Azerbaijan (8), Bahrain (10), Bolivia (9), Bosnia (7),Burundi (2), Cameroon (2), Central African Republic (2), Chad (2), China/Japan (5), Colombia(9), Cte dIvoire (3), Cyprus (9), DR Congo (2), Egypt (11), Georgia (8), Guatemala (9), Guinea(4), Guinea-Bissau (4), India (non-Kashmir) (6), Indonesia (7), Iran (11), Iraq (11), Israel-Palestine(10), Kazakhstan (4), Kenya (2), Korean Peninsula (5), Kosovo (8), Kyrgyzstan (5), Lebanon (10),Liberia (4), Libya (12), Madagascar (3), Mali (4), Mauritania (12), Mexico (9), Myanmar (7), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (8), Nepal (6), Niger (4), Nigeria (4), North Caucaus (Russia) (8), Pakistan (6),Philippines (7), Rwanda (2), Saudi Arabia (11), Somalia (2), South Sudan (3), Sri Lanka (6), Sudan(3), Syria (10), Tajikistan (5), Thailand (7), Tunisia (12), Turkey (9), Turkmenistan (5), Uganda (3),Uzbekistan (5), Venezuela (10), Western Sahara (12), Yemen (11), Zimbabwe (3)

November 2013 Watchlist

October 2013 Trends

123 1 November 2013

Bangladesh (6)Kashmir (6)Mozambique (3)

Board of TrusteesChairThomas Pickering

President and CEOLouise Arbour

Vice-Chairs Ayo ObeGhassan Salam

Executive CommitteeMorton AbramowitzCheryl CarolusMaria Livanos Cattaui

Frank GiustraMark Malloch-BrownGeorge SorosPr Stenbck

Ko AnnanNahum BarneaSandy BergerMicheline Calmy-ReyWesley ClarkSheila CoronelMark EyskensJoschka FischerLykke FriisJean-Marie Guhenno

Carla HillsLena Hjelm-WallnMo IbrahimIgor Ivanov

Asma JahangirWadah KhanfarWim KokRicardo LagosJoanne Leedom-AckermanLalit MansinghBenjamin MkapaLaurence ParisotKarim RaslanPaul ReynoldsJavier Solana

Liv Monica StubholtLarry SummersWang JisiWu JianminLionel Zinsou

Chairmen EmeritiMartti AhtisaariGeorge J. Mitchell

President EmeritusGareth Evans
http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.crisisgroup.org/


2/12

2

DR Congo Heavy ghting between govt orces and M23 rebels ineast resumed 25 Oct afer peace talks suspended, reportedly overdisagreement on amnesties or M23 rebels. Congolese army andUN orces quickly took control o M23 strongholds Kiwanja and

Rutshuru 27 Oct, 1 peacekeeper killed by M23; last M23 strong-hold Bunagana captured by govt troops 31 Oct; UN said M23 indisarray. U.S. and UN envoys mid-month attended peace talkswhere consensus reached on 8 o 12 articles o agreement includ-ing release o political prisoners, end o M23 rebel movement andresettlement o re ugees and IDPs; no agreement reached on DDRor immunity or M23. Mayi Mayi attacks in east killed at least 34;UN condemned unimaginable atrocities. National dialogue oncrisis in east ended late Sept without major incident. 15 UNSCrepresentatives visited President Kagame and DRC Pesident Kabila,7 Oct said regional states to determine peace in DRC.

DR Congo M23 rebels all but n ished, says UN, BBC, 29 Oct. 2013.

Rwanda Govt late-Oct said mortar shells rom eastern DRC ellon territory, warned o retaliation. U.S. 3 Oct blocked military

assistance to Rwanda on basis o use o child soldiers by DRC M23rebel group; MONUSCO 9 Oct said M23 recruiting child soldiersin Rwanda; govt said claims ludicrous.

Rwanda warns DRC of deadly retaliation, Al Jazeera, 26 Oct. 2013.

Horn of Africa

Kenya Fears o violent backlash against Somali and Muslimcommunities ollowing Sept al-Shabaab attack on Westgate mallgrew; radical Muslim cleric Sheikh Ibrahim Rogo and 3 otherskilled by gunmen in Mombasa 3 Oct; Rogos supporters claimedshooting was reprisal by Kenyan security orces. Muslim youths4 Oct clashed with police in Mombasa, 4 killed and church set onre. Interior Minister Joseph Ole Lenku 25 Oct criticised Dadaabre ugee camp near Somalia border, echoing sentiments o KenyanParliamentary Committee on De ence which 30 Sept called orclosure, claimed camp a nursery or terrorists. Military 31 Octbombed al-Shabaab camp in Somalia (see Somalia). AU leaders22 Oct requested UNSC de er ICC trials o President Kenyatta andVP Ruto, AU also called or immunity or serving heads o state;trial o Kenyatta delayed rom 12 Nov to 5 Feb 2014. Kenya calls for Somalis to leave worlds largest refugee camp, AlJazeera, 25 Oct. 2013.

Somalia U.S. special orces 5 Oct raided home o al-Shabaabcommander Abduldkadir Ikrima in Barawe, Lower Shabelleregion, ailed to capture him. U.S. drone strike 28 Oct killed 2senior al-Shabaab members in Middle Juba region. argetedbombing by Kenyan military 31 Oct destroyed al-Shabaab train-ing camp in Dinsoor region, estimated 300 killed. Suicide bombtargeting Ethiopian troops killed at least 17 including 4 Ethiopiansoldiers, wounded over 30 in Beledweyne 19 Oct. AU 12 Octagreed to increase AMISOM troops by 6,000; decision awaitingUNSC approval. Al-Shabaab clashes with govt/AMISOM orcescontinued. Govt 7 Oct declared all oil exploration permits signedwith Puntland and Somaliland regions invalid, companies shouldnegotiate with govt.

EJ Hogendoorn, What Next for Al-Shabaab?, CNN, 15 Oct. 2013. African Union backs Peace and Security Council call for more AMISOMtroops, Garowe Online, 15 Oct. 2013.

Africa

Central Africa

Burundi At least 5 wounded 6 Oct in street clashes in Gihangabetween opposition Movement or Solidarity and Democracy(MSD) supporters and ruling CNDD-FDD Imbonerakure youthwing; opposition, civil society expressed concern Imbonerakurebecoming CNDD-FDD militia. VP Sinunguruza (UPRONA)resigned 14 Oct; President Nkurunziza 16 Oct appointed BernardBusokoza (UPRONA) as replacement despite discontent withinCNDD-FDD over his alleged role in 1993 coup. Journalist Has-san Ruvakuki, jailed on terrorism charges, granted conditionalrelease 22 Oct. Police 6 Oct arrested 11 in Bujumbura in terrorist

crackdown ollowing Nairobi Westgate mall attack. Burundi reporter, previously jailed for life, resumes work, AFP, 22 Oct.2013.

Cameroon Ruling Peoples Democratic Movement (CPDM) won148 o 180 seats in 30 Sept legislative elections, gained control o305 o 360 councils. Boko Haram militants 28 Oct attacked mili-tary checkpoint on Bama-Banki road close to Nigerian border, 4security operatives killed. Le parti du prsident Biya grand vainqueur des lgislatives, Jeune Afrique , 17 Oct. 2013.

Central African Republic Violence deepened throughout month.MSF reported over 30,000 ed clashes between ex-Seleka rebels andarmed groups in NW. Rebels 11 Oct clashed with miners in Gargakilling several; 8 Oct clashed with sel -de ence groups leaving tensdead; 11 Oct attacked security orces. 6 killed 11 Oct in clashesbetween rebels and armed groups in Bomboro, south o Bangui.At least 5 killed 5 Oct in intercommunal clashes in Bangassou ineast. At least 12 killed 26 Oct in clashes between Seleka and sel -de ence groups in Bouar, NW. UNSC 29 Oct approved deploymento 560 additional peacekeepers including some 250 to protect UNpeacebuilding office (BINUCA); UN 10 Oct rein orced mandateand scope o BINUCA, in particular human rights component,supported establishment o AU stabilisation mission (MISCA).Visiting French FM 13 Oct said France would increase trooppresence by year-end; French President Hollande 14 Oct repeated

warning CAR insecurity could destabilise wider region. Regionalleaders meeting at ECCAS summit in Chad 25 Oct called orinclusive national con erence in CAR, called on CAR authoritiesto ollow stabilisation strategy drafed by ECCAS steering com-mittee; appointed Cameroonian Martin umenta as head o newMISCA orce. Former CAR PM Dologul 25 Oct created newpolitical party Union pour le Renouveau Centra ricaine (URCA).

Anarchy, violence grip Central African Republic, Deutche Welle, 18 Oct.2013.

Chad Newspaper editor Samory Ngaradoumb arrested 14 Oct,accused o spreading malicious rumours afer publishing article onmutiny in Baida military camp ollowing Sept de ection o Chad-

ian peacekeepers in Mali. 2 Chadian peacekeepers killed 23 Octin suicide attack in essalit, Mali. Amnesty International accusedgovt o violently repressing critics, opposition. Amnesty: hundreds of illegal detentions in Chad, Deutche Welle, 25 Oct.2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24722794http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/rwanda-warns-drc-deadly-retaliation-2013102673632885328.htmlhttp://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/25/kenya-calls-for-emptyingofworldslargestrefugeecamp.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/op-eds/hogendoorn-what-next-for-al-shabaab.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/op-eds/hogendoorn-what-next-for-al-shabaab.aspxhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201310160638.htmlhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201310160638.htmlhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/131022/burundi-reporter-previously-jailed-life-resumes-workhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/actu/20131017T171837Z20131017T171812Z/http://www.dw.de/anarchy-violence-grip-central-african-republic/a-17166735http://www.dw.de/amnesty-hundreds-of-illegal-detentions-in-chad/a-17183593http://www.dw.de/amnesty-hundreds-of-illegal-detentions-in-chad/a-17183593http://www.dw.de/anarchy-violence-grip-central-african-republic/a-17166735http://www.jeuneafrique.com/actu/20131017T171837Z20131017T171812Z/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/131022/burundi-reporter-previously-jailed-life-resumes-workhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201310160638.htmlhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201310160638.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/op-eds/hogendoorn-what-next-for-al-shabaab.aspxhttp://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/25/kenya-calls-for-emptyingofworldslargestrefugeecamp.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/rwanda-warns-drc-deadly-retaliation-2013102673632885328.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24722794


3/12

3

South Sudan Media reported rumours rebel leader David YauYau in talks with govt; Murle elders and ormer rebels who havealready accepted President Kiirs amnesty offer reportedly serv-ing as acilitators. Nearly 80 reportedly killed in rebel attack in

Jonglei state mid-month. Govt continued to encourage return odisplaced Ngok Dinka to Abyei, pressured AU to go ahead withproposed re erendum or re er case to UNSC; Ngok Dinka tribeheld unilateral re erendum, voted to join S Sudan.

Jerome Tubiana,Sudan and South Sudan Inch Toward War, Foreign Affairs , 8 Oct. 2013. S Sudans Dinka hold unilateral vote on Abyei, Al Jazeera, 28 Oct. 2013.

Sudan Protests against govt continued early-month despite use otear gas to disperse demonstrators; 7 university pro essors arrestedlate-Oct in crackdown. Ghazi al-Attabani, ormer adviser to rulingNational Congress Party (NCP) and ex-majority leader in parlia-ment, 26 Oct announced de ection rom NCP, intention to orm

new party. President Bashir 28 Oct re erred to re orm and changeat opening o new parliamentary session. Bashir 22 Oct met withS Sudan President Kiir in Juba to discuss bilateral issues includingAbyei dispute; some concessions but no overall breakthrough. AUHigh-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) mandate extendedto Dec 2014 and to whole Horn o A rica. AUHIP-proposed re -erendum on Abyei slated or Oct unilaterally undertaken by localNgok Dinka community despite warnings rom AU. AU 27 Octcondemned Sudan govt or preventing planned AU visit to Abyei.Govt 31 Oct condemned renewed U.S. sanctions. Cedric Barnes, Sudan: Riots, Reforms, and a Divided Regime, The African Peacebuilding Agenda, 11 Oct. 2013. Is Sudan on the brink of another civil war?, Al Jazeera, 27 Oct. 2013.

Uganda President Museveni 30 Sept ordered enquiry into allegedthef and mismanagement o military supplies by UPDF soldiersdeployed in Somalia. Police raised terror alert ollowing warningso imminent attack ollowing Sept al-Shabaab attack on WestgateMall in Kenya.

Uganda raises security alert to maximum, Al Jazeera, 19 Oct. 2013.

Southern Africa

Madagascar 25 Oct presidential elections deemed ree and airby SADC, EU and local observers; preliminary results show allyo ousted president Ravalomanana, Jean-Louis Robinson, withearly lead with 27% o votes; main rival Hery Rajaonarimam-pianina, close to transitional president Rajoelina, just over 15%;run-off likely to be held in Dec. Electoral Commission head 28Oct indicated provisional results will be available 8 Nov. Reportedincidents include: district chie killed at polling station in southerntown Benenitra; 1 kidnapped rom voting site in Bezaha; pollingstation burned down in northern district saratanana. Securityorces 4 Oct imposed cur ew on Nosy Be island afer mob lynched3, including 2 Europeans, suspected o killing child and organtrafficking; 35 arrested. Piers Pigou and Brian Klaas, Madagascars Back on Track DestinationUnknown, City Press, 6 Oct. 2013.

Prsidentielle malgache: une bataille lectorale par procuration, RFI, 22Oct. 2013.

Mozambique RENAMO 21 Oct said it is abandoning 1992 peaceaccord with ruling FRELIMO party that ended countrys 15-year-long civil war, prompting ears o return to violence. RENAMO 18Oct ambushed army in So ala killing 7 soldiers; army retaliated,

21 Oct took over RENAMO Gorongosa base. U.S. 22 Oct urgedparties to move back rom brink, prevent escalation; 31 Oct con-demned reprehensible attacks on civilians, expressed concernover escalating violence. RENAMO 26 Oct ambushed passengerminibus in central So ala province, killing 1 and injuring 10. 29Oct clash between army and RENAMO in So ala resulted in deathso 17 soldiers, 41 RENAMO rebels; 29 Oct RENAMO attack inNiassa province lef 1 dead; reports o 12 kidnapped. PresidentGuebuza 30 Oct said country not going back to war. ens othousands marched 31 Oct in Maputo, Beira, Quelimane to protestagainst threat o armed conict and recent spate o kidnappingsby criminal gangs. Mozambique faces uncertainty as Renamo ends 1992 peace pact,Reuters, 21 Oct. 2013.

Zimbabwe Amid mounting economic problems in afermatho July election, including ood shortages, high unemployment,ZANU-PF blaming Western sanctions while opposition and busi-ness point to uncertainty and unclear govt policies underminingcondence. President Mugabes ZANU-PF 23 Oct unveiled 5-yeareconomic plan, Zimbabwe Agenda or Socio-Economic rans or-mation (ZIMASE ). ZANU-PF held Provincial Executive Com-mittee elections late Oct amid intense competition between 2 mainactions led by justice minister Mnangagwa and VP Mujuru; pollswill be decisive in electing party leadership at Dec elective congress.MDC- motion in parliament to debate July elections blocked byZANU-PF 16 Oct. MDC objected to ZANU-PF motion or par-liament to send message to international community to removeremaining sanctions. MDC- 27 Oct revealed dossier which it sayscontains evidence that ZANU-PF rigged July elections.

Trevor Maisiri,Zims Elusive Reconstruction Agenda, ZimbabweIndependent , 29 Oct. 2013.

Mugabe unveils ve-year plan to save Zimbabwe economy, BusinessDay Live, 23 Oct. 2013.

West Africa

Cte dIvoire Preparations or 2015 presidential elections began but

agreement on election mechanics still lacking. Democratic Partyo Cte dIvoire (PDCI)s 12th congress began 3 Oct; ormer PMKonan-Bedi re-elected head o party. President Ouattara 19 Octcalled on estimated 58,000 re ugees in Liberia to return home; sameday signed peace and security agreement with Liberian PresidentSirlea -Johnson. 22 Oct shoot-out in Yopougon military garrisonprompted rumours o mutiny. ICC 1 Oct conrmed pending arrestwarrant or Charles Bl Goud, minister under ormer presidentGbagbo and leader o Young Patriots. ICC 29 Oct rejected appealby ormer president Gbagbo, said he must remain in detentionin Te Hague pending possible trial on charges o crimes againsthumanity. International Federation or Human Rights (FIDH)22 Oct published report criticising govt or lack o progress onimpunity, notably justice ministrys decision not to renew mandateo special investigation cell due to expire in Dec.

Rinaldo Depagne,Cte DIvoire: a Need for Facilitation, The AfricanPeacebuilding Agenda, 21 Oct. 2013.

Cte dIvoire sees sharp rise in banditry, IRIN, 16 Oct. 2013.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/south-sudan/op-eds/tubiana-horn-of-africa-sudan-and-south-sudan-inch-toward-war.aspxhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/sudan-dinka-hold-unilateral-vote-abyei-2013102712912452792.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/11/sudan-riots-reforms-and-a-divided-regime/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/11/sudan-riots-reforms-and-a-divided-regime/http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/10/sudan-brink-another-civil-war-20131012124845948360.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/uganda-raises-security-alert-maximum-2013101941824898865.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/madagascar/op-eds/pigou-klaas-madagascars-back-on-track.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/madagascar/op-eds/pigou-klaas-madagascars-back-on-track.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/madagascar/op-eds/pigou-klaas-madagascars-back-on-track.aspxhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131021-presidentielle-malgache-rajoelina-ravalomanana-robinson-rajaonarimpininahttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131021-presidentielle-malgache-rajoelina-ravalomanana-robinson-rajaonarimpininahttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131021-presidentielle-malgache-rajoelina-ravalomanana-robinson-rajaonarimpininahttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-mozambique-renamo-idUSBRE99K0LI20131021http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/op-eds/maisiri-zimbabwe-s-elusive-reconstruction-agenda.aspxhttp://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2013/10/23/mugabe-unveils-five-year-plan-to-save-zimbabwe-economyhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/21/cote-divoire-a-need-for-facilitation/http://allafrica.com/stories/201310160837.htmlhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201310160837.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/21/cote-divoire-a-need-for-facilitation/http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2013/10/23/mugabe-unveils-five-year-plan-to-save-zimbabwe-economyhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/op-eds/maisiri-zimbabwe-s-elusive-reconstruction-agenda.aspxhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-mozambique-renamo-idUSBRE99K0LI20131021http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131021-presidentielle-malgache-rajoelina-ravalomanana-robinson-rajaonarimpininahttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131021-presidentielle-malgache-rajoelina-ravalomanana-robinson-rajaonarimpininahttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/madagascar/op-eds/pigou-klaas-madagascars-back-on-track.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/madagascar/op-eds/pigou-klaas-madagascars-back-on-track.aspxhttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/uganda-raises-security-alert-maximum-2013101941824898865.htmlhttp://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/10/sudan-brink-another-civil-war-20131012124845948360.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/11/sudan-riots-reforms-and-a-divided-regime/http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/sudan-dinka-hold-unilateral-vote-abyei-2013102712912452792.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/south-sudan/op-eds/tubiana-horn-of-africa-sudan-and-south-sudan-inch-toward-war.aspx


4/12

4

Guinea Controversy over legislative elections continued as oppo-sition 4 Oct called or annulment o 28 Sept vote in which rulingRPG and small allies were expected to have narrow majority.Electoral commission (CENI) 18 Oct released provisional results

stating 8.3% o voting stations rejected or various reasons. RPGand international partners insisted opposition ollow establishedappeal procedures and go to Supreme Court. International partnerspressed Supreme Court to pay special attention to 8 problematicdistricts. Opposition 14 Oct preparing appeals to Supreme Court,mentioned 14 other problematic districts.

Vincent Foucher,Guinea: Salvaging (Once Again) the Elections inGuinea?, AllAfrica, 8 Oct. 2013.

Security Council urges restraint, calm ahead of election certi cation, UNNews, 25 Oct. 2013.

Guinea-Bissau UN SRSG Jos Ramos-Horta 1 Oct said countrynearly a ailed state, insistence on ethnic balance within armed

orces not realistic. ECOWAS 9 Oct announced it will provide$12mn o $19.4mn needed to nance upcoming general elections.Following 17 Oct meeting on elections with authorities, diplomatsand political parties, Ramos-Horta conrmed polls likely to bedelayed until early 2014; ECOWAS late Oct reiterated pre erenceor elections be ore Dec 2013. Protesters 8 Oct attacked Nigerianembassy, lynched Nigerian national and called or departure oECOWAS orce ollowing rumours o Nigerian residents involve-ment in human organ trafficking; Nigerian ambassador accusedlocal media o spreading alse rumours. Security orces enactedreprisals against protesters ollowing day, 20 arrested.

A um ms das eleies gerais, Guin-Bissau aguarda marcao de novadata, LUSA, 24 Oct. 2013.

Liberia UN SRSG Karen Landgren 3 Oct reported police law-en orcement capabilities still weak, progress in ght against corrup-tion slow; police called or international donor support to rein orcelogistical capabilities. Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) 6Oct published list o 22 officials who have deliberately re used tocooperate including de ence minister Brownie Samukai, PoliceDirector Chris Massaquoi. Protesters taking part in Ellen StepDown campaign, including campaign leader Mulbah Morlu, Vice-Chairman o Congress or Democratic Change, arrested 9 Oct orplanning mass protest, charged with criminal conspiracy, sedition. Liberian of cials accused of resisting anti-corruption probe, VOA, 8 Oct.2013.

Mali Security in north deteriorated: rst-ever suicide attack onMINUSMA peacekeepers 23 Oct near essalit killed 7; 1 killed inMUJAO mortar attacks on Gao 7 Oct. Demonstrators gatheredin Gao 10 Oct to protest insecurity, weak state presence. France,MINUSMA, Malian army 24 Oct launched joint military opera-tion Hydre to avoid revival o terrorist movements in north.Govt 2 Oct released 23 war prisoners; MNLA 5 Oct announced3 main armed groups resumed participation in peace talks; IBK29 Oct lifed arrest warrants against 4 uareg leaders in name onational reconciliation. Political situation in Bamako remainedtense: govt 3 Oct launched Operation Saniya to retake control obarracks in Kati, ollowing late Sept mutiny; bodies o 4 soldiers,including General Sanogos head o security, ound at barracks;court 31 Oct summoned Sanogo over alleged violence involvingmen under his command.

Jean-Herv Jezequel and Jonathan Prentice, The War in Mali is Not YetWon, The African Peacebuilding Agenda, 7 Oct. 2013.

UN troops from Chad killed in Malis Tessalit town, BBC, 23 Oct. 2013.

Niger Main political parties remain divided over participationin new national unity govt; new parliament opened 4 Oct butcomposition o presidential majority remains unclear. Mainopposition leaders, including current National Assembly president

Hama Amadou, 5 Oct ormed coalition Republican Alliance orDemocracy and Reconciliation (ARDR). Demonstrators 15 Octgathered in Arlit to protest French Mining Company Arevas lacko investments and impact on environment. AQIM 29 Oct released4 French hostages abducted 2010, allegedly in return or immunityor Mali Ansar Dine leader Iyad ag Ghali. At least 87 migrantsound dead near Algerian border 30 Oct. La fronde de lopposition contre le prsident Issoufou, RFI, 6 Oct. 2013.For latest report, see Crisis Group Africa Report N208,Niger: AnotherWeak Link in the Sahel? , 19 Sept. 2013.

Nigeria Authorities reported continuing gains in militaryoperations against Islamist sect Boko Haram (BH) including 40

suspected insurgents reportedly killed 13 Oct near Bama, BornoState, more than 70 BH members killed during military operationin Borno State 24-25 Oct. UNHCR 29 Oct said violence in northorced some 10,000 to ee to neighbouring states. BH attackscontinued: attack on Damaturu, Yobe State, 23 Oct, and ghtwith military lef 128 dead including 95 suspected insurgents, 23soldiers, 8 police. Video o man claiming to be BH leader AbubakarShekau sur aced 8 Oct, man vowed to continue ght until govt oAllah, by Allah and or Allah established. Suspected Fulani herds-men 12 Oct attacked several communities in Benue State, killing21; over 20 killed 10 Oct in Barkin Ladi, Plateau state by unknownattackers; more than 10 killed 29 Oct in communal clash in Ukhuo-rumi, Edo State. Factional crisis within ruling Peoples DemocraticParty (PDP) deepened; reconciliation meeting between PresidentJonathan and leaders o splinter group (nPDP) planned or 7 Octdid not happen; govt 12 Oct sealed off nPDP temporary secretariatin Abuja; Federal High Court 18 Oct barred nPDP rom openingparallel offices across country, barred electoral commission romrecognising or dealing with group. nPDP leaders opened talkswith main opposition All Progressives Congress.

Nigerias bitter battle with Boko Haram, Deutsche Welle, 24 Oct. 2013.

Asia

Central Asia

Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev 16 Oct appointed longstandingally and ormer director-general o UN Geneva office Kassym-Jomart okayev as Senate chairman, sparking discussion onNazarbayevs still undisclosed succession plan. Nazarbayev 2 Octapproved new counter-terrorism strategy, ocused on domesticprevention.

Deirdre Tynan,In the End is the Beginning: Kazakhstan After Naz-arbayev, Across Eurasia, 8 Oct. 2013.

Diplomat Tokayev returns to Kazakh politics as Senate head, Reuters,16 Oct. 2013.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N250,Kazakhstan: Waitingfor Change , 30 Sept. 2013.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/guinea/op-eds/foucher-guinea-salvaging-once-again-the-elections-in-guinea.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/guinea/op-eds/foucher-guinea-salvaging-once-again-the-elections-in-guinea.aspxhttp://noticias.sapo.pt/internacional/artigo/a-um-mes-das-eleicoes-gerais-guine-bissau-aguarda-marcacao-de-nova-data_16832028.htmlhttp://noticias.sapo.pt/internacional/artigo/a-um-mes-das-eleicoes-gerais-guine-bissau-aguarda-marcacao-de-nova-data_16832028.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/liberia-corruption-commission-unverified-wealth/1765055.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/07/the-war-in-mali-is-not-yet-won/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/07/the-war-in-mali-is-not-yet-won/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/07/the-war-in-mali-is-not-yet-won/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24643733http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131006-niger-opposition-s-unit-imposer-cohabitation-president-issoufouhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.dw.de/nigerias-bitter-battle-with-boko-haram/a-17180797http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/across-eurasia/2013/10/08/in-the-end-is-the-beginning-kazakhstan-after-nazarbayev/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/across-eurasia/2013/10/08/in-the-end-is-the-beginning-kazakhstan-after-nazarbayev/http://news.yahoo.com/diplomat-tokayev-returns-kazakh-politics-senate-head-134220538.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://news.yahoo.com/diplomat-tokayev-returns-kazakh-politics-senate-head-134220538.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/across-eurasia/2013/10/08/in-the-end-is-the-beginning-kazakhstan-after-nazarbayev/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/across-eurasia/2013/10/08/in-the-end-is-the-beginning-kazakhstan-after-nazarbayev/http://www.dw.de/nigerias-bitter-battle-with-boko-haram/a-17180797http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131006-niger-opposition-s-unit-imposer-cohabitation-president-issoufouhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24643733http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/07/the-war-in-mali-is-not-yet-won/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/10/07/the-war-in-mali-is-not-yet-won/http://www.voanews.com/content/liberia-corruption-commission-unverified-wealth/1765055.htmlhttp://noticias.sapo.pt/internacional/artigo/a-um-mes-das-eleicoes-gerais-guine-bissau-aguarda-marcacao-de-nova-data_16832028.htmlhttp://noticias.sapo.pt/internacional/artigo/a-um-mes-das-eleicoes-gerais-guine-bissau-aguarda-marcacao-de-nova-data_16832028.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/guinea/op-eds/foucher-guinea-salvaging-once-again-the-elections-in-guinea.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/guinea/op-eds/foucher-guinea-salvaging-once-again-the-elections-in-guinea.aspx


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Kyrgyzstan Violent protests demanding nationalisation o minescontinued, with 3 attacks on British-, Chinese- and Australian-heldmines. During 7 Oct protests at Kumtor gold mine, local governorkidnapped or several hours; 400 protesters 8 Oct barricaded

highway; 10 charged with hostage-taking. President Atambayevdescribed protests as banditry, terrorism. Parliament 23 Octrejected Sept deal between govt and Canada-listed Centerra Gold,demanded new deal to raise Kyrgyz ownership to 67%. U.S. con-rmed it will vacate Manas airbase July 2014, shifing logisticalhub or A ghanistan withdrawal to airbase in Romania. Kyrgyzstan presses for 67 pct share in Kumtor gold venture, Reuters, 23Oct. 2013.

Tajikistan Main opposition candidate Oynihol Bobonazarova11 Oct dropped out o 6 Nov presidential elections afer narrowlymissing 210,000 signatures required to register as candidate; saidcampaign subject to pressure, harassment rom authorities, police,media. Parliament 1 Oct ratied agreement with Russia to extendRussias 201st military base until 2042, in return or duty- ree oilimports rom Russia, pre erential treatment or ajik migrantworkers, military assistance. Govt also began negotiations withRussia on use o Ayni airbase. Rakhmon 21 Oct held talks withA ghan President Karzai on security, energy cooperation, creatingajikistan-A ghanistan- urkmenistan railway line. Afghan neighbour Tajikistan rati es base deal with Russia, Reuters, 1Oct. 2013.

Turkmenistan Rights groups 2 Oct called on govt to releasein ormation about prisoners arrested or alleged participation in2002 coup attempt against ormer President Niyazov, includingormer FM Shikhmuradov; campaign supported by U.S.. Govt 5Oct announced start o campaign or Dec parliamentary elections;elections will or rst time eature 2 parties, but 2nd party set upunder orders o President Berdymukhamedov. Media report OSCE,EU and CIS to send observers. EU Special Envoy Patricia Flor 3Oct met Berdymukhamedov during Central Asia Border SecurityInitiative con erence, said EU continues to support security, energy,trade cooperation.

Prove they are alive, Civic Solidarity Platform, 7 Oct. 2013.

Uzbekistan Amid discussions over President Karimovs successionafer Dec 2014 elections, presidents daughters Lola and GulnaraKarimova engaged in public spat. Karimovs nephew AkbaraliAbdullaev arrested or tax raud, corruption, organised crime.

ashkent reportedly in talks with aliban to allow them to openoffice in country. Local media reported Uzbekistan secured $1bnin cotton sales this year; Walk Free Foundation index on slaveryranked Uzbekistan as having second highest prevalence o slaveryin world during cotton harvesting season. UN Committee Againstorture 30 Oct expressed concern over reports o widespreadtorture in Uzbekistan.

Uzbek cotton-picking claims eighth victim, RFE/RL, 24 Oct. 2013.

North East Asia

China/Japan Beijing denied reports that China sent senior oreignministry official to Japan or secret talks early Oct to repair rayedbilateral ties, though conrmed countries diplomats maintaincommunications; Japanese govt spokesman acknowledged coun-

tries maintained dialogues and communications at various levels.Following Sept meeting between Japanese PM Abe and ChinesePresident Xi at G20 summit, China declined second meeting atearly Oct APEC summit in Bali. U.S. and Japan 3 Oct agreed to

modernise de ence alliance or rst time in 16 years, citing grow-ing concerns about DPRKs nuclear program and other threats.Citing increasingly insecure environment PM Abe in speech toparliament 15 Oct proposed establishing security council withinhis office, and plans to reinterpret Article 9 o constitution to allowJapanese troops to ght when countrys allies are attacked; 26 Octsaid Japan will stand up to China. Chinese analysts criticised Abesaggressive stance. Parliament 22 Oct approved plan allowingor interception o oreign drones in Japanese airspace. Chinesede ence ministry 26 Oct said shooting down o Chinese droneswould be seen as an act o war. China summoned Japanese ambas-sador in Beijing to express anger afer over 100 Japanese MPs 17Oct visited Yasukuni Shrine honouring WWII dead includingwar criminals; PM Abe re rained rom visiting shrine, but madeoffering and expressed regret that he was unable to make trip; aidetold media he is likely to visit be ore year-end.

Japans Abe likely to visit Yasukuni shrine by the end of year: aide,Reuters, 20 Oct. 2013.

Korean Peninsula U.S. and ROK 2 Oct signed tailored deterrenceagreement during annual Security Consultative Meeting reaffirm-ing military alliance; DPRK reacted putting army on high alert.Seoul 1 Oct staged largest military parade in decades, displayingrecently deployed ballistic and cruise missiles; President Park spokeo very grave threat rom DPRK. ROK, U.S. and Japan 10-11 Octheld combined naval drill; Pyongyang criticised as highly provoca-tive. At 1.5-track diplomacy meeting between DPRK officialsand U.S. experts in London 1-2 Oct, Pyongyang stressed desireto return to six-party talks. China and ROK 21 Oct announcedrenewed bilateral cooperation amid growing nuclear threats romPyongyang. Pyongyang 22 Oct claimed U.S. openly threateningDPRK, warned it could react with war. ROK and DPRK 23 Octsigned ollow-up deal covering operation o Kaesong IndustrialComplex. DPRK Foreign Ministry 24 Oct said country will not takesteps towards nuclear disarmament. Increased activity reported atmain underground nuclear test site Punggye-ri in NE. Pyongyang25 Oct released 6 S Korean detainees. South Korea, U.S. sign new pact to deter North Korea nuclear threat,Reuters, 2 Oct. 2013.

South Asia

Afghanistan Independent Election Commission 22 Octannounced 16 o 27 presidential candidates disqualied. U.S. SecState Kerry visited 11 Oct, discussed with President Karzai bilateralsecurity agreement setting out plan or some U.S. troops to remainafer 2014 NA O withdrawal; agreed remaining U.S. troops wouldnot conduct unilateral operations, could not agree on immunityor U.S. soldiers. Foreign ministry 27 Oct urged Pakistan to acili-tate direct talks with deputy aliban leader Mullah Abdul GhaniBaradar, reportedly recently reed to encourage A ghan peaceprocess; govt 29 Oct announced meeting with Baradar agreedduring London talks. Senior Pakistani aliban commander LatiMehsud reportedly seized 12 Oct by U.S. orces in East. Logarprovince governor and close Karzai ally Arsallah Jamal killed,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/gold-kyrgyzstan-centerra-idUSL5N0ID2JY20131023http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/tajikistan-russia-idINL6N0HR05T20131001http://www.civicsolidarity.org/article/809/turkmenistan-prove-they-are-alivehttp://www.rferl.org/content/article/25145827.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/20/us-abe-shrine-idUSBRE99J01320131020http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/us-korea-usa-idUSBRE99103C20131002http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/us-korea-usa-idUSBRE99103C20131002http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/20/us-abe-shrine-idUSBRE99J01320131020http://www.rferl.org/content/article/25145827.htmlhttp://www.civicsolidarity.org/article/809/turkmenistan-prove-they-are-alivehttp://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/tajikistan-russia-idINL6N0HR05T20131001http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/gold-kyrgyzstan-centerra-idUSL5N0ID2JY20131023


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15 wounded in bomb attack on mosque 15 Oct. Roadside bombkilled 18 civilians on way to wedding in east 27 Oct. 4 coalitionsoldiers killed 6 Oct during operation in Zhari district, Kandaharprovince; suicide bomber 18 Oct attacked Green Village oreign

compound on outskirts o Kabul. Louise Arbour, Afghanistan Future Uncertain as Presidential Polls Loom,Daily Star , 29 Oct. 2013.

Louise Arbour, Fighting for Womens Rights in Afghanistan, ForeignPolicy , 22 Oct. 2013.

Afghanistan says differences remain on U.S. security pact, Reuters, 21Oct. 2013.

New Crisis Group Asia Report N252, Women and Con ict in Afghanistan ,14 Oct. 2013. Women are increasingly exposed to violence and exclusionfrom the public sphere as Afghanistan nears the 2014 security transition andconservative forces gain momentum.

Bangladesh Violence erupted late-month as opposition Bang-ladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) activists clashed with police andsupporters o ruling Awami League (AL), afer PM Sheikh Hasina14 Oct said session o present parliament would continue afer 24Oct, rejecting deadline set by BNP or trans er o power to care-taker govt ahead o Jan 2014 elections. Reportedly over 100,000BNP supporters rallied in Dhaka 25 Oct; at least 6 people reportedkilled by security orces. BNP leader Khaleda Zia 25 Oct called or60-hour nationwide strike starting 27 Oct; in rare direct contact,PM Hasina telephoned Zia 26 Oct in partially televised call inattempt to cancel strike, but no deal reached. Strike saw violentstreet ghts across country, over a dozen killed, hundreds wounded.Local BNP leader 28 Oct bombed and kni ed to death in Jhenaidahby pro-AL demonstrators, 1 AL supporter reportedly hacked todeath 27 Oct in Jessore. Police 27 Oct opened re on BNP dem-onstrators in Nagarkanda; 29 Oct killed at least 2 Jamaat-e-Islamidemonstrators on Kutubdia island. Situation urther inamed ascontroversial International Crimes ribunal (IC ) 9 Oct sentencedBNP politician Abdul Alim to li e imprisonment or killing at least600 people during 1971 war o liberation; ollowed 1 Oct sentenc-ing to death o another BNP MP Salauddin Quader Chowdhury. Bangladesh rivals end 10-year silence but fail to nd peace,Independent , 27 Oct. 2013.

Kashmir Regular gun- and mortar re exchanges between Paki-stan and India despite late Sept agreement between leaders to stopattacks. India accused Pakistani troops o ring at over 50 Indianborder posts 24 Oct in what it called most serious ceasere viola-tion in a decade, killing 1 Indian soldier and injuring 6; claimedPakistan shelled Indian military post in Uri sector o LoC 28 Oct,killing 1 soldier. Indian troops 4 Oct reportedly red across LoC,killed in ant, injured 5 civilians. Pakistan PM Shari 10 Oct saidnormalised relations with India a priority, but nance ministersame day said Indias Most Favoured Nation trading status to besuspended until May 2014 Indian parliamentary elections. IndianPresident Mukherjee 5 Oct accused Pakistan o exporting state-sponsored terrorism. India accuses Pakistan of fresh attacks on Kashmir border posts, AP, 23Oct. 2013.

India (non-Kashmir) 3 policemen killed 17 Oct in suspected Maoistrebel ambush in Gadchiroli district; 5 arrested. Security orces 9Oct killed suspected Maoist during reght near Malingwar vil-

lage, Chhattisgarh district. Communist Party o India-Maoist 15Oct called or boycott o Nov assembly elections in Chhattisgarh.

Polls are just a farce, says Naxalite leader, TNN, 16 Oct. 2013.

Nepal Ahead o 19 Nov Constituent Assembly (CA) electionsunidenti ied gunmen 4 Oct killed Uni ied Marxist-Leninist(UML) candidate Mohammad Alam in Bara. Communist Partyo Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) 2 Oct said oreign power centrescaused Sept ailure o talks to include CPN-M in elections; party vowed to actively boycott elections: 19 Oct en orced strike in3 western districts, banned other parties rom campaigning inBardiya district. Party cadres engaged in numerous low-intensityclashes; 5 UCPN Maoist cadres seriously injured afer 20 Oct clashwith Nepali Congress cadre in Aathbiskot. Army deployed over60,000 soldiers to maintain order during polls. Nepal election process gathers momentum, Hindu , 5 Oct. 2013.

Pakistan PM Shari 23 Oct reportedly urged U.S. to end dronestrikes in Pakistan during trip to U.S., met with President Obama;condemned U.S. drone strike 31 Oct that killed 3 in N Waziristan.Govt report 31 Oct said only 67 civilians killed in drone strikesprompting scepticism rom Amnesty International, Bureau oInvestigative Journalists. Shari 31 Oct said talks with Pakistanialiban underway. Attacks in 4 provincial capitals 11 Oct including8 killed in Quetta marketplace, 1 in Lahore marketplace. KhyberPakhtunkwa (KPK) law minister and Pakistan ehreek-i-Insa(P I) member Israullah Gandapur among 8 killed 16 Oct in attackin KPKs Dera Ismail Khan district; P I said not responsible,reiterated calls or peace talks. Suicide bomber 2 Oct killed 8 atChaman border crossing with A ghanistan. Remote-controlledbomb targeting police protecting anti-polio workers killed 2,injured 13 in Peshawar 7 Oct. At least 3 killed, 15 injured 29 Octin Quetta bombing. Army chie General Ashra Parvez Kayani4 Oct announced retirement end-Nov amid rumours he wouldretain senior military position. Pakistani PM pleads with Obama to put an end to drone strikes,Guardian , 23 Oct. 2013.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N249,Parliaments Role inPakistans Democratic Transition , 18 Sept. 2013.

Sri Lanka Newly-elected amil National Alliance ( NA)-controlled northern provincial council held rst session 25 Oct.Some dissent within NA over allocation o provincial ministersand decision o newly-elected chie minister Wigneswaran totake oaths o office be ore President Rajapaksa 7 Oct. Govt 21 Octannounced 2014 budget including increased de ence spending torecord $1.95bn. Militant Buddhist organisation Bodhu Bala Sena(BBS) 22 Oct renewed campaign against halal meat as part olarger aim to counter threat o muslim extremism. UK parliamentForeign Affairs Committee mid-Oct criticised govt decision toback Sri Lankas hosting o Nov Commonwealth leaders meetingdespite human rights concerns; Canada early Oct announced itwill not attend in protest at govt human rights record, will reviewnancial support or Commonwealth; Indias amil Nadu Assembly24 Oct demanded Indian govt boycott meeting. Sri Lanka Northern Council holds historic rst session, Hindu, 26 Oct.2013.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/op-eds/arbour-fighting-for-womens-rights-in-afghanistan.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/op-eds/arbour-fighting-for-womens-rights-in-afghanistan.aspxhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSBRE99K19T20131021http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/252-women-and-conflict-in-afghanistan.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/252-women-and-conflict-in-afghanistan.aspxhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/bangladesh-rivals-end-10year-silence--but-fail-to-find-peace-8907636.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/23/india-pakistan-attacks-kashmir-borderhttp://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/assembly-elections-2013/chhattisgarh-assembly-elections/polls-are-just-a-farce-says-naxalite-leader/articleshow/24225441.cmshttp://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/nepal-election-process-gathers-momentum/article5201851.ecehttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/23/pakistani-pm-obama-end-drone-strikeshttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/sri-lanka-northern-council-holds-historic-first-session/article5273775.ecehttp://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/sri-lanka-northern-council-holds-historic-first-session/article5273775.ecehttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/23/pakistani-pm-obama-end-drone-strikeshttp://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/nepal-election-process-gathers-momentum/article5201851.ecehttp://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/assembly-elections-2013/chhattisgarh-assembly-elections/polls-are-just-a-farce-says-naxalite-leader/articleshow/24225441.cmshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/23/india-pakistan-attacks-kashmir-borderhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/bangladesh-rivals-end-10year-silence--but-fail-to-find-peace-8907636.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/252-women-and-conflict-in-afghanistan.aspxhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSBRE99K19T20131021http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/op-eds/arbour-fighting-for-womens-rights-in-afghanistan.aspx


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South East Asia

Indonesia Civilian shot dead in ood convoy in Puncak Jayadistrict, Papua 21 Sept; police 23 Sept shot dead teenager dur-ing protest against police weapons searches in Waghete town.Afer meeting with President Yudhoyono 30 Sept, Australian PMAbbot said he admired what Indonesia had done to improve theautonomy and the li e o the people o West Papua, called provincesintegral part o Indonesia. Anti-terrorism squad Densus 88 shotdead 1 suspect, arrested 2 others in 17 Oct raid in S Sulawesi, alleg-edly connected to group behind recent attacks on police in Poso,Central Sulawesi. Anti-corruption agency 2 Oct arrested chie justice and head o Constitutional Court on corruption chargeslinked to regional elections in Banten and Central Kalimantanprovinces. Indonesian anti-terror squad kills suspected terrorist, Wall Street

Journal , 18 Oct. 2013.

Myanmar Govt and Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO)armed group signed agreement ollowing latest round o peacetalks 8-11 Oct; representatives o most other ethnic armed groupsattended as observers, also Chinese envoy and UNSGs SpecialAdviser or Myanmar. KIO committed to strive to end armedclashes, and reached agreement with army on implementing cease-re monitoring arrangements and other issues. KIO also expressedsupport or Presidents idea or con erence to sign NationwideCeasere Accord with all armed group leaders, possibly in Nov/Dec. Would mean country in peace or rst time in 65 years,enshrine govt commitment to next political steps, time rame. KIOalso convened meeting o ethnic armed group leaders at its HQ 30Oct-1 Nov or discussions ahead o nationwide ceasere meeting;leaders o Wa armed group, countrys largest, did not attend. Govt 8Oct released 56 political prisoners, most charged with contacts withethnic armed groups. Fresh anti-Muslim violence in Tandwe inRakhine State early Oct, with attacks on Kaman Muslim minority villages; 7 killed, scores o houses burned down; 78 arrested or rolein violence, which coincided with visit by President Tein Sein toarea. Series o bomb blasts 11-14 Oct, killing policeman and oneother person in aungoo 11 Oct, and injuring several includingin upscale raders Hotel in Yangon. Several small IEDs also oundin various locations. No claim o responsibility; several arrestedincluding suspect in raders Hotel bombing. Tein Sein 8-10 Octattended ASEAN Summit, ahead o Myanmars chairmanship o

grouping in 2014. Jim Della-Giacoma, Reforms Hinge on Treatment of Minorities,Myanmar Times , 7 Oct. 2013.

Hold re, if not cease re, Economist , 15 Oct. 2013.

New Crisis Group Asia Report N251, The Dark Side of Transition: Violence Against Muslims in Myanmar , 1 Oct. 2013. Unless there is an effectivegovernment response and change in societal attitudes, violence againstMyanmars Muslim communities could spread, jeopardising the countrystransition as well as its standing in the region and beyond.

Philippines Govt and MILF negotiators met or 41st round otalks in Malaysia 8-13 Oct, discussed remaining annexes o Oct

2012 ramework agreement on power sharing and normalisa-tion; sides reported progress but no agreement. Military officer 9Oct accused MILF commander Malista Malanka o aiding AbuSayya (ASG) militant group during army-ASG clash in which 2

soldiers, 3 ASG militants reported killed. Following Sept siege oZamboanga City by MNLF, arrest warrants issued or 4 suspectedleaders o group responsible or attack. At least 22 candidates andsupporters reported killed, 27 injured in run-up to 28 Oct village

elections across country. 4 MILF reported killed during clashbetween 2 MILF actions in Maguindanao 23 Oct, reportedly overrival candidates in polls; one o several intra-MILF skirmishesduring month.

22 killed ahead of Philippine village elections, AP, 28 Oct. 2013.

Thailand National Security Council (NSC) 10 Oct postponedindenitely 4th round o agging peace dialogue with Barsan Revo-lusi Nasional (BRN), originally scheduled or 20 Oct. Army chieGen Prayudh Chan-ocha said splits within militant movement onwhether to participate contributed to decision to postpone. NSCsaid more time needed to study BRN demands. Officials insist pro-cess will continue. Sources report next plenary meeting expectedbe ore end-Nov. Violence in southernmost provinces included4 soldiers killed in IED attack targeting teacher-escort patrol inKrong Pinang District, Yala 3 Oct. 2 rangers killed in IED attack inRangae District, Narathiwat, 11 Oct. Insurgents 9 Oct detonated27 small IEDs at banks and shops in Narathiwat, Pattani, Yala andSongkhla provinces, 3 injured; army ranger killed, 4 wounded inIED attack in Cho Airong District, Narathiwat Province sameday; teacher executed in Saiburi District, Pattani. 3 killed in gunbattle between security orces and suspected militants in TungYang Daeng District, Pattani, 15 Oct. Constitutional Court twicedecided in avour o govt-backed legislation, dismissing petitionsagainst draf constitutional amendment or all-elected senate and2014 budget bill. Cabinet 9 Oct approved imposition o InternalSecurity Act (ISA) or 3 Bangkok districts in response to protest

by Peoples Democratic Force o Overthrow Taksin. Largerprotests anticipated ollowing 18 Oct revision by governing PheuTai Party o draf bill to provide amnesty or offences related topolitical unrest since 2006, in apparent bid to allow exiled ormerPM Taksin Shinawatra to return without serving 2-year sentenceor abuse o power. Revised bill angered Taksin opponents plussome pro-Taksin Red Shirts, as it would absolve ormer PMAbhisit Vejjajiva and deputy o causing deaths by ordering 2010crackdown on anti-govt protesters. Thailand looks to restart southern peace talks, despite little progress, VOA, 30 Oct. 2013.

EuropeBalkans

Bosnia Bosnian leaders again ailed to agree on constitutionalre orms required to implement 2009 European Court o HumanRights Sejdi-Finci ruling, as required by EU. EU responded sayingit would cut 47mn in pre-accession assistance, around hal o 2014allocation. Annual EU Progress Report 22 Oct criticised lack ore orm, emphasised Brussels does not intend to impose solutions.Bosnia nally per ormed rst post-war population census 1-15Oct amid accusations o raud and irregularities.

EU slashes funding for Bosnia, European Voice , 10 Oct. 2013.
http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/10/18/indonesian-anti-terror-squad-kills-suspected-terrorist/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/dellagiacoma-Reforms-hinge-on-treatment-of-minorities.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/dellagiacoma-Reforms-hinge-on-treatment-of-minorities.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/10/myanmar-s-ethnic-conflictshttp://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/10/myanmar-s-ethnic-conflictshttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp://asiancorrespondent.com/114989/22-killed-ahead-of-philippine-village-elections/http://www.voanews.com/content/thailand-looks-restart-southern-peace-talks-despite-little-progress/1779764.htmlhttp://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2013/october/eu-slashes-funding-for-bosnia/78417.aspxhttp://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2013/october/eu-slashes-funding-for-bosnia/78417.aspxhttp://www.voanews.com/content/thailand-looks-restart-southern-peace-talks-despite-little-progress/1779764.htmlhttp://asiancorrespondent.com/114989/22-killed-ahead-of-philippine-village-elections/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/10/myanmar-s-ethnic-conflictshttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/dellagiacoma-Reforms-hinge-on-treatment-of-minorities.aspxhttp://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/10/18/indonesian-anti-terror-squad-kills-suspected-terrorist/


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Kosovo Scattered violence marred preparations or rst local elec-tions to be held under Kosovo jurisdiction in Serb-held northernmunicipalities 3 Nov, uelled ears or violence on election day.3 explosions targeted local politicians 14-19 Oct. Belgrade and

Pristina traded accusations o raud related to voter registrationprocess. UNDP survey early Oct ound almost hal Serbs in NKosovo do not plan to vote, only hal o voters aware o whowas running or mayor. Most o regions established politicianssupporting boycott campaign. EU Progress Report said Kosovomust strengthen anti-corruption efforts; Kosovo began talks onStabilisation and Association Agreement 28 Oct.

Something completely different in Northern Kosovo, Balkans PolicyResearch Group, 23 Oct. 2013.

Caucasus

Armenia Speaking at Parliamentary Assembly o Council oEurope 2 Oct, President Sargsyan denied widespread opinion opoliticians and commentators that pressure rom Russia playedrole in Sept decision to join Russian-led Customs Union, expressedhope that Armenia could still initial association agreement (AA)with EU. EU officials say not possible as AA agreement containsree trade clauses incompatible with Russian-led Customs Unionmembership.

Armenias receding European ambitions, IWPR, 18 Oct. 2013.

Azerbaijan President Aliyev, in power since 2003, won third5-year term in 9 Oct presidential election with 85% o vote; mainopposition candidate Camil Hasanli received around 5%. Pollscriticised by OSCE as seriously awed, marred by restrictivemedia environment, allegations o intimidation; govt rejectedbiased report. U.S. said vote ell short o international standards.Opposition denounced vote as raudulent and illegitimate. A ewthousand opposition supporters rallied against result, also calledor release o political prisoners, end to govt pressure on media.Ahead o vote, UN human rights agency expressed concern overrestrictive environment aced by activists; EU also expressedconcern over continued pressure on opposition activists, civilsociety, independent media; OSCE called situation quite wor-rying. Aliyev sworn in 19 Oct in unusually low key ceremony,replaced long-serving de ence minister, more changes expected.Govt 21 Oct said no plans to join Russian-led Customs Union. OSCE says Azerbaijan election seriously awed, RFE/RL, 10 Oct. 2013.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) Speaking at ParliamentaryAssembly o Council o Europe 2 Oct, Armenian President Sarg-syan urged body to initiate contact with N-K de acto authorities tohelp resolve conict; also criticised Azerbaijan or its threateningrhetoric. Serious ghting along international rontier lef 1 soldierdead, 3 wounded on Armenian side (according to Armeniande ence ministry) and orced authorities to close main road lead-ing to border with Georgia; both sides blamed other or incident.Re-elected Azerbaijani President Aliyev said country will increaseefforts to isolate Armenia economically and politically to orce it toleave occupied Azerbaijani districts; Baku 29 Oct accused Yerevano resettling 200 Syrian re ugees in sensitive occupied districtsadjacent to N-K. Some Armenian analysts expressed concern overAliyevs appointment o new de ence minister, say it may indicatemore aggressive military posture and increase risk o war.

Syria Armenians move to Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan, AFP, 2 Oct.2013.For latest report, see Crisis Group Europe Brie ng N71, Armenia and

Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks , 26 Sept. 2013.

Georgia Ruling Georgian Dream coalition candidate Giorgi Marg- velashvili won 27 Oct presidential election with 62% o vote; outgo-ing president Saakashvilis UNM party candidate Davit Bakradzewon 22%, ormer parliament speaker Nino Burdhzanadze 10%;turnout reported at 46.6%. PM Ivanishvili 22 Oct again saidSaakashvili may ace prosecution ollowing election. Formerde ence minister under Saakashvili Davit Kezerashvili detainedon Interpol warrant in France 15 Oct on corruption charges, govtseeking extradition. Former de ence minister Bacho Akhalaiasentenced to nearly 4 years prison or abuse o office. NA O SGFogh Rasmussen 2 Oct called on Russia to reverse recognition obreakaway Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia (SO),

expressed concern over Russias demarcation o SO administrativeboundary line and effect on local Georgians.Mikheil Saakashvilis polarizing legacy, RFE/RL, 24 Oct. 2013.

North Caucaus (Russia) Female suicide bomber rom Dagestan21 Oct targeted bus in southern Russian city Volgograd, killing6 and injuring 55, in countrys rst terrorist attack outside NCaucasus since 2011. Director o Federal Security Service andhead o National Anti-terrorist Committee Alexander Bortnikov8 Oct declared progress in ght against terrorism; cited decreasein number o terrorist attacks this year (144 attacks) comparedwith 2012 (270 attacks); most attacks in Dagestan. Also men-tioned threats to Feb 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics rom militantsrom Syria and A ghanistan-Pakistan, reiterated commitment toincreasing security in run-up. Major security incidents included:4 insurgents, 3 police and 3 militia members killed in Levashinskydistrict, Dagestan 2 Oct; 2 suspected suicide bombers killed inailed attack afer devices detonated early 18 Oct in Dygulubgey

village, Kabardino-Balkaria; series o attacks on police officers inDagestan, 2 killed 9 Oct; 1 killed, 15 injured in double bombingnear shop selling alcohol in Makhachkala 30 Oct. Aznaur Khizriev,leader o local terrorist group in Khasavyurt, Dagestan, killed inshoot-out 12 Oct. Continued pressure on Sala community in Dag-estan: police raids in Leninkent village mosque and on halal ca esin Makhachkala; security services closed Muslim kindergartenin Makhachkala and womens madrasa in Novosasitli. Killing oethnic Russian by North Caucasian in Biryulovo district, Moscow,

sparked tensions between Russian nationalists and Caucasian,Central Asian immigrants, riots in Moscow 13 Oct. Russianparliament adopted law on compensation o damage caused byterrorists at expense o their relatives. European Court o HumanRights ordered Moscow to pay over 1mn to relatives o Chechenskilled in artillery bombardment in 2000; also ound Russia guiltyo disappearances o Ingushetian residents 2000-2005.

Suicide bomber attacks bus in Volgograd, killing at least 6, MoscowTimes , 21 Oct. 2013.

For latest report, see Europe Report N226,The North Caucasus: TheChallenges of Integration (III ), Governance, Elections, Rule of Law , 6 Sept.2013.
http://balkansgroup.org/reports/http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenias-receding-european-ambitionshttp://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-election/25132214.htmlhttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syria-armenians-move-to-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=55588&NewsCatID=352http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.rferl.org/content/saakashvili-mixed-legacy/25146918.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/suicide-bomber-attacks-bus-in-volgograd-killing-at-least-6-video/488230.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/suicide-bomber-attacks-bus-in-volgograd-killing-at-least-6-video/488230.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/saakashvili-mixed-legacy/25146918.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syria-armenians-move-to-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=55588&NewsCatID=352http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-election/25132214.htmlhttp://iwpr.net/report-news/armenias-receding-european-ambitionshttp://balkansgroup.org/reports/


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at least 1,000 soldiers deployed to region. Mexico 23 Oct underwentUniversal Periodic Review by UN Human Rights Council; urgedto rein in security orces and investigate disappearances. Out of sight, not out of mind, Economist , 19 Oct. 2013.

Venezuela Finance Minister Nelson Merentes, seen as leadingadvocate o more exible economic policy, stripped o role aseconomic VP early Oct and replaced by oil minister and chie ostate-owned oil company Petrleos de Venezuela Ra ael Ramirez.Ramirezs appointment seen as strengthening hardliners led byPlanning Minister Jorge Giordani who oppose dtente with privatesector, market economy. Rights activists voiced concern at revivalo Strategic Center o Security and Homeland Protection, military-led body mandated to gather in ormation on national security anddetermine which in ormation should remain restricted.

Govt removes Nelson Merentes as Economy Vice-president, ElUniversal , 8 Oct. 2013.

Middle East and North Africa

Eastern Mediterranean

Israel-Palestine Secret peace talks continued between Israeli andPalestinian negotiators; unnamed senior Palestinian negotiators7 Oct stated U.S. requested to up the tempo o negotiations buttalks achieved nothing, and that Israel obstructing discussion oborders with its security demands concerning Jordan Valley. U.S.Sec State Kerry and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed talks during 23Oct meeting in Rome. Israel 30 Oct reed 26 Palestinian prisoners;announced plans or series o controversial construction plans inE Jerusalem and West Bank. In hardline speech, Netanyahu 7 Octsaid Israeli military occupation not a cause o conict, no peacepossible unless Palestinians recognise Israel as Jewish state.Hamas leaders Haniyeh and Meshal called on Palestinian Authorityto cease peace negotiations immediately, said only armed struggleagainst Israel could achieve right o return and protect Jerusalem.Relations between Hamas and Egypt remained sour, Ra ah borderterminal mostly closed. Israeli orces 13 Oct discovered tunnelrom Gaza into Israel: Hamas 21 Oct claimed responsibility, saidtunnel part o plan to orce Israel to ree Palestinian prisoners;

Israel retaliated stopping low o building materials to Gaza.Hamas 31 Oct attacked Israeli orces destroying tunnel, injuring5; Israeli orces reportedly killed 4 Hamas militants. Netanyahu 1Oct criticised improved U.S.-Iranian relations, 14 Oct called U.S.diplomatic track with Iran historic mistake, advocated toughersanctions. U.S. official 31 Oct reported Israeli airstrike targetingshipment o Russian missiles bound or Hizbollah in Latakia, Syria;no conrmation rom Israel. Binyamin Netanyahu: occupation is not cause of con ict, Guardian , 7Oct. 2013.

Lebanon Military court 16 Oct charged 7 members o pro-SyrianPresident Assad Alawite Arab Democracy Party over 23 Aug bomb-ings o Sunni mosques in ripoli that killed 47, claimed de end-ants instructed by Syrian intelligence services. Charges triggeredrenewed clashes between ripolis Sunni Bab al- ebbaneh andAlawite Jabal Mohsen neighbourhoods 16 Oct: violence quickly

contained, but reignited 23 Oct afer televised interview with Assad,leaving 16 dead, 80 wounded; army deployed to restore order 28Oct, 1 soldier killed. During interview Assad criticised Lebanesegovt or allowing terrorists to enter Syria; President Suleiman

responded saying Lebanon will continue disassociation policywith Syrian conict. Lebanese Sunni militant Omar Atrash, mainsuspect in 9 July and 15 Aug Dahiya bombings, killed in ambush inNehmat, Syria 11 Oct. 8 Syrian rockets hit Lebanese city Hermelin Bekaa valley 21 Oct, 5 rockets hit Wadi Ra area 22 Oct. Specialribunal or Lebanon (S L) 14 Oct issued public arrest warrant orHassan Merhi, alleged Hizbollah supporter and 5th suspect in2005 assassination o PM Raq Hariri. Political deadlock betweenMarch 14 and Hizbollah-led March 8 alliance over cabinet orma-tion continued as March 14 rejected March 8 cabinet proposalgranting 9 seats to each camp and 6 seats to centrists.

Lebanese authorities tie attacks on mosques to pro-Assad politicalparty, McClatchyDC, 16 Oct. 2013.

Syria Organisation or the Prohibition o Chemical Weapons(OPCW) 6 Oct began destruction o Syrias chemical weapons(CW) arsenal, 31 Oct stated Syria had destroyed all o its declaredCW production/mixing acilities, meeting 1 Nov deadline. U.S. SecState Kerry and Russian FM Lavrov 7 Oct agreed to press UN toset date or Geneva II peace con erence in Nov; Arab League (AL)chie Nabil el-Araby 20 Oct said talks will begin 23 Nov, but UN/AL Special Envoy Brahimi 20 Oct said talks unlikely in absenceo credible opposition. Friends o Syria grouping 22 Oct urgedopposition Syrian National Coalition (NC) to participate in GenevaII, called or transitional govt; NC to vote 1 Nov on participation,but largest member Syrian National Council 13 Oct said it will notnegotiate be ore all o Assad regime, will not attend Geneva II, willquit NC i it participates. Militant groups rejecting Geneva talks,highly critical o prospect o political oppositions participation.Islamist opposition militia Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant(ISIL) continued expansion in N and E Syria: ISIL ghters 2 Octought rebel militia Northern Storm in Azaz; coalition o militantrebel groups 3 Oct called or immediate ceasere. ISIL 27 Oct lostYaaroubiyeh border crossing to Syrian Kurdish militiamen linkedto Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Syrian army, Hizbollah, andIraqi Shiite militia orces reclaimed key strategic areas and cor-ridors: 3 Oct retook northern town Khanasser rom rebels, 7 Octreopened crucial supply road linking govt-held central area withAleppo, 9 Oct retook Sheikh Omar suburb o Damascus. 6 ICRCworkers and 1 Syrian Red Crescent employee kidnapped 13 Octby unidentied gunmen in Idlib, 4 released 14 Oct. WHO 29 Octreported outbreak o polio in Deir al-Zour province. Crisis Group Syria Statement, UN Should Mandate UnhinderedHumanitarian Access To and Within Syria, 1 Nov. 2013.

Will the jihadists overreach?, Economist , 12 Oct. 2013.

New Crisis Group Middle East Report N146, Anything But Politics: TheState of Syrias Political Opposition , 17 Oct. 2013. Often derided for itsin ghting or dismissed as irrelevant, Syrias political opposition re ectsthe contradictions and con icting geopolitical interests upon which it wasfounded.

Gulf

Bahrain Court 1 Oct sentenced 50 activists to 5-15 years jailor links to February 14 movement, spying or Iran; police 5 Octcharged prominent al-We aq opposition member Khalil al-Mar-
http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21588071-having-decided-play-down-fight-against-drug-kingpins-enrique-pe-nieto-has-yet-comehttp://www.economist.com/news/americas/21588071-having-decided-play-down-fight-against-drug-kingpins-enrique-pe-nieto-has-yet-comehttp://english.eluniversal.com/economia/131008/venezuelan-govt-removes-nelson-merentes-as-economy-vice-presidenthttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/israel-binyamin-netanyahu-palestinianshttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/israel-binyamin-netanyahu-palestinianshttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/16/205588/lebanese-authorities-tie-attacks.htmlhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/16/205588/lebanese-authorities-tie-attacks.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/mena/un-should-mandate-unhindered-humanitarian-access-to-and-within-syria.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/mena/un-should-mandate-unhindered-humanitarian-access-to-and-within-syria.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/mena/un-should-mandate-unhindered-humanitarian-access-to-and-within-syria.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21587845-extremist-group-ruffling-feathers-including-those-its-islamist?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4dhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/146-anything-but-politics-the-state-of-syria-s-political-opposition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/146-anything-but-politics-the-state-of-syria-s-political-opposition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/146-anything-but-politics-the-state-of-syria-s-political-opposition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/egypt-syria-lebanon/syria/146-anything-but-politics-the-state-of-syria-s-political-opposition.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21587845-extremist-group-ruffling-feathers-including-those-its-islamist?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4dhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/mena/un-should-mandate-unhindered-humanitarian-access-to-and-within-syria.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2013/mena/un-should-mandate-unhindered-humanitarian-access-to-and-within-syria.aspxhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/16/205588/lebanese-authorities-tie-attacks.htmlhttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/10/16/205588/lebanese-authorities-tie-attacks.htmlhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/israel-binyamin-netanyahu-palestinianshttp://english.eluniversal.com/economia/131008/venezuelan-govt-removes-nelson-merentes-as-economy-vice-presidenthttp://www.economist.com/news/americas/21588071-having-decided-play-down-fight-against-drug-kingpins-enrique-pe-nieto-has-yet-come


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zooq with inciting terrorist crimes and supporting February 14.Al-Marzooq joined thousands o people 25 Oct in nationwide anti-govt protest. Security orces 12 Oct violently dispersed protests inManama afer uneral o Yousi Ali al-Nashmi, detainee who died

in hospital 11 Oct with signs o torture. Homemade bomb 27 Octinjured unspecied number o police in Demistan near Manama. Ignoring Bahrains iron st, Foreign Policy, 14 Oct. 2013.

Iran Govt continued diplomatic offensive at 15-16 Oct P5+1 talksin Geneva where FM Zari and deputy FM Araqchi discussednuclear program with UNSC P5 plus Germany; no details released,off-record U.S. negotiator called meetings rst true negotiationson Iranian nuclear program. IAEA and Iranian representatives met28-29 Oct to discuss IAEA investigation into possible militarydimensions o Iranian nuclear program; 29 Oct jointly stated talksvery productive, next meeting 11 Nov in ehran. U.S. Sec StateKerry 3 Oct said it would be diplomatic malpractice o the worstorder not to engage Iranian offer to negotiate nuclear program;17 Oct announced it might offer Iran access to $billions in rozenunds i govt takes certain actions to curb nuclear program. 230out o 290 MPs 2 Oct signed statement supportive o PresidentRouhanis conciliatory UNGA speech in Sept. Supreme leaderKhamenei 5 Oct expressed support or strategy but said someparts improper, possibly hinting at 27 Sept phone call betweenRouhani and U.S. President Obama. On Syria, U.S. 7 Oct said Irancould join Geneva II peace con erence i it publicly backed 2012Geneva Communique calling or transitional govt; Iran calledcondition unacceptable. Baluchi Sunni group Jaish al-Adl 25Oct killed 14 border guards in ambush near Saravan in retaliationor unspecied Iranian massacre in Syria and cruel treatmento Sunnis in Iran; govt 26 Oct executed 16 men allegedly linkedto Jaish al-Adl. Ali Vaez, Dont Expect Miracles in Iran Nuclear Talks, CNN, 14 Oct. 2013. Ali Vaez, Irans Nuclear Program: Cause for Concern, But Not Alarm, AlJazeera, 9 Oct. 2013.

Iran presents timetable to end nuclear talks deadlock, Guardian , 15Oct. 2013.

Iraq Parliament 8 Oct set national parliamentary elections or 30April 2014; political orces began vying to change election lawsin their avour. PM Maliki 29 Oct visited U.S., discussed need orarms to stem Iraq violence, terrorism. Govt gures suggested Octdeadliest month since April 2008 with over 900 killed including:some 35 killed in 10 car explosions in predominantly Shia areasin Baghdad 27 Oct; at least 19 police and 3 civilians killed 22-23Oct in series o bomb attacks in Anbar; 13 children killed 6 Octin attack on school in Qabak; string o car and roadside bombings14 Oct killed at least 44.

As Iraq seeks U.S. arms, bombs kill another 55, Reuters, 27 Oct. 2013.

Saudi Arabia U.S.-Saudi relations deteriorated afer U.S. with-drawal o threat o military intervention in Syria and Iranian-Western diplomatic thaw: intelligence chie 22 Oct vowed govtwill undertake major shif in relations with U.S.. Govt 18 Octrejected 2-year UNSC seat in protest at deal, denounced UNSCsinability to per orm its duties on Syrian conict. Why the snub?, Economist , 21 Oct. 2013.

Yemen Political tensions within National Dialogue grew moreacute: Huthi and part o Hiraak delegation 8 Oct boycotted open-ing plenary session, arguing their issues, including regarding state

structure and number o ederal units, had not been ully resolvedin working groups. Divisions continued within Hiraak delegationover acceptable compromises; tensions between head o delegationand President Hadi increased. State Minister Hassan Shara ud-

din 30 Oct resigned rom national consensus govt. Tousands oHiraak rallied in Aden mid-month commemorating anniversaryo independence rom British, demanding independence romnorthern occupation. enuous truce between Huthis and Salasin Dammaj began to unravel mid-month with renewed clashes; atleast 30 reportedly killed, over 100 injured. German security guardkilled 6 Oct in Sanaa; same day, UNICEF employee kidnapped onairport road. At least 5 soldiers killed, 15 injured 18 Oct in attack onbase in Abyan province; 2 soldiers and civilian killed at checkpointin Abyan province 31 Oct. Al-Qaeda leader Omar Salem arrested29 Oct in Hadramawt province.

Yemens slide into chaos risks militant haven on Saudi border,Bloomberg, 30 Oct. 2013.

North Africa

Algeria Security orces 2 Oct arrested 5 unisians belonging toSala movement Ansar al-Sharia; 16 Oct killed 1 suspected terroriston Bejaia-Bordj Bou Arredji border; 16 Oct captured prominentAQIM member Bousad Hana Hammadi in amanrasset; 18Oct arrested 2 alleged jihadis returning rom Iraq. Bomb 3 Octnear Bouira lef 3 injured; 15 Oct bomb targeted gendarmerie inBordj Bou Arredji. Authorities reported 190 terrorists killed sincebeginning o year. Govt 1 Oct deployed security orces in Ghardaaollowing intercommunal clashes between Chambis (Arabs) andMozabites (Berbers). Authorities mid-month reportedly arrestedblogger Abdelghani Aloui on suspicion o inciting terrorism,criticising President Bouteika. Inscurit la frontire algro-libyenne: la grande inquitude, El Watan ,23 Oct. 2013.

Egypt Political transition roadmap moved orward as constitu-tional committee 22 Oct began nal negotiations, amid continuedexclusion o most Islamist political orces rom process, heavycasualties at almost daily pro-Muslim Brotherhood (MB) rallies.Security orces 6 Oct killed dozens, arrested over 400 MB support-ers in clashes across Egypt; 53 people killed, 271 wounded. Leakedaudio les rom interview with de ence minister General al-Sisi

16 Oct revealed he may run or president. Former president Morsito stand trial 4 Nov on charges o espionage or Hamas and prisonescape during 2011 revolution; MB 2 Oct said will not backtrackon its demand or Morsi reinstatement as president. Political violence continued to escalate with army operations in restlessSinai Peninsula as unclaimed attacks on govt targets increased,uelling ears o Islamist insurgency. Unidentied gunmen 4 Octkilled 2 soldiers in attack on army convoy east o Cairo, 7 Octkilled 6 soldiers in Ismailia and red grenades at satellite stationin Cairo, 28 Oct killed 3 policemen at university in Mansoura. U.S.10 Oct suspended delivery o military hardware to Egyptian armyin response to crackdown on MB, said credible progress neededtowards air elections; continued economic assistance, support orcounter-terrorism operations and Egyptian-Israeli border security. Recording reveals Sisis political ambitions in Egypt, Financial Times , 16Oct. 2013.
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/10/14/the_peril_of_ignoring_bahrain_s_iron_fisthttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-don-t-expect-miracles-in-iran-nuclear-talks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-don-t-expect-miracles-in-iran-nuclear-talks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-iran-s-nuclear-program-cause-for-concern-but-not-alarm.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-iran-s-nuclear-program-cause-for-concern-but-not-alarm.aspxhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/15/iran-powerpoint-timetable-nuclear-talkshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/27/us-iraq-violence-idUSBRE99Q01C20131027http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/10/saudi-arabia-and-un?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4dhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/yemen-s-slide-into-chaos-risks-militant-haven-on-saudi-border.htmlhttp://www.elwatan.com/actualite/insecurite-a-la-frontiere-algero-libyenne-la-grande-inquietude-23-10-2013-232355_109.phphttp://www.elwatan.com/actualite/insecurite-a-la-frontiere-algero-libyenne-la-grande-inquietude-23-10-2013-232355_109.phphttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/yemen-s-slide-into-chaos-risks-militant-haven-on-saudi-border.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/10/saudi-arabia-and-un?zid=308&ah=e21d923f9b263c5548d5615da3d30f4dhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/27/us-iraq-violence-idUSBRE99Q01C20131027http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/15/iran-powerpoint-timetable-nuclear-talkshttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-iran-s-nuclear-program-cause-for-concern-but-not-alarm.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/iran/op-eds/vaez-don-t-expect-miracles-in-iran-nuclear-talks.aspxhttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/10/14/the_peril_of_ignoring_bahrain_s_iron_fist


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The International Crisis Group provides analysis by professionals who not only want a say, butactually have something to say. They are not just researching at their desk, but know the regionand the people they are talking about.

Detlef Esslinger, Comment Editor, Sddeutsche Zeitung , February 2011

Crisis Group Ofces

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+32 2 502 9038Washington [email protected] +1 202 785 1601

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Crisis Groups international headquarters is in Brussels, and the organisation has ofces or

representation in 34 locations: Abuja, Bangkok, Beijing, Beirut, Bishkek, Bogot, Bujumbura,Cairo, Dakar, Damascus, Dubai, Gaza, Guatemala City, Islamabad, Istanbul, Jakarta, Jerusalem,Johannesburg, Kabul, Kathmandu, London, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Port-au-Prince,Pristina, Rabat, Sanaa, Sarajevo, Seoul, Tbilisi, Tripoli, Tunis and Washington DC.

Crisis Group is also currently covering some 70 areas of actual or potential conict (throughanalysts operating from regional or eld bases, or consultants). In Africa, this includes, BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte dIvoire, Democratic Republicof the Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Nigeria,Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe; in Asia, Afghanistan,Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Nepal, North Korea,Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistanand Uzbekistan; in Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia,Kosovo, Macedonia, North Caucasus, Serbia and Turkey; in the Middle East and North Africa,

Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria,Tunisia, Western Sahara and Yemen; and in Latin America and the Caribbean, Colombia,Guatemala, Haiti and Venezuela.

Libya Gunmen 10 Oct kidnapped PM Ali Zeidan or several hours,allegedly in retaliation or Zeidans tacit approval o U.S.-led capture

o ormer al-Qaeda operative Abu Anas al-Libi early Oct. Zeidanblamed abduction on 2 congressmen Mohammed al-Kilani andMusta a al- riki and Libya Revolutionaries Operation Room(LROR), controversial security body with ties to Islamist groupsthat operates under authority o Libyan Congress (GNC) head.Abdelmonem Essid, member o other state-approved securitygroup, subsequently took responsibility, said group seized Zeidanover drug and corruption allegations. 94 congressmen 27 Oct boy-cotted GNC to protest obstruction o investigation into Zeidansabduction, called or LRORs dismissal. Russian embassy attacked3 Oct, 2 killed and diplomatic staff evacuated; car bomb 11 Octstruck Swedish-Finish consulate in Benghazi. Attacks targetingsecurity officials increased: gunmen 5 Oct killed 16 army officersat checkpoint near arhouna, SW o ripoli; at least 10 securityofficials killed in separate attacks in Benghazi. Muslim clericAbdulsalam al-Hassi o Benghazi killed 12 Oct. Oil shutdownsin west reduced crude exports to below 10% o capacity late Oct.ICC 12 Oct gave Libya green light to try Qadha-era security chieAbdullah Senussi. Libyas premier accuses two rivals in abduction, Reuters, 20 Oct. 2013.

Mauritania Opposition coalition Coordination or DemocraticOpposition (COD) 2 Oct suspended participation in rst dialoguewith govt in 4 years, but authorities 3 Oct said they will maintain23 Nov date or legislative elections. 10 o 11 COD parties 4 Octannounced boycott but Islamist party awassoul and Union oForces o Progress (UFP) 5 Oct said they will participate, prompt-

ing uncertainty over uture o coalition. Lunit de la Coordination de lopposition dmocratique vole en clats,RFI, 6 Oct. 2013.

Tunisia National Dialogue (ND) began 25 Oct based on newpolitical roadmap signed 5 Oct ollowing months o negotia-tions. Roadmap stipulates govt to step down within 3 weeks o

start o ND, Constituent Assembly to nish constitution within4 weeks, with new technocratic caretaker govt to govern until

elections (date o which to be set prior to govt dissolution). Rul-ing Islamist party An-Nahda signed document, but 15 Oct saidit will only leave office once constitution is ratied, electoral lawre ormed, independent electoral commission established, datesset or parliamentary, presidential elections; opposition NationalSalvation Front 23 Oct held demonstrations in protest, said An-Nahda delaying transition. Security situation remained unstableamid increased Islamist militant attacks. Suicide bomber 30 Octdetonated bomb in tourist resort Sousse, no injuries; police arrestedsecond would-be suicide bomber in Monastir and 5 suspects inSousse, said all belong to Sala group Ansar al-Sharia. Militants 23Oct killed 7 security officers near Sidi Ali Ben Aoun in Sidi Bouzidgovernorate, 17 Oct killed 2 police in Goubellat. PM Laraayedh18 Oct said unisia would de eat terrorism; army stepped upoperations, 21 Oct killed 9 militants

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