CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Maj Kelly Lawson

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Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP)CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP)and and

COMMANDER’S ESTIMATECOMMANDER’S ESTIMATE

Maj Kelly LawsonMaj Kelly Lawson



Maj Kelly LawsonMaj Kelly Lawson

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PurposePurpose

To present doctrine for To present doctrine for crisis action planning and crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimatethe Commander’s Estimate

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ReferencesReferencesReferencesReferences

JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsJP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations

JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & ProceduresProcedures

DJTFAC

HANDBOOK

DJTFAC HandbookDJTFAC Handbook

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Key PointsKey Points Key PointsKey Points

Develop a Military Course of ActionDevelop a Military Course of Action

Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures:

• Six phase processSix phase process• Key DocumentsKey Documents

– Warning & Alert OrdersWarning & Alert Orders– Commander’s EstimateCommander’s Estimate

• Requires Concurrent andRequires Concurrent and Collaborative PlanningCollaborative Planning

Threat to national / regional Threat to national / regional interestinterest

Develops rapidlyDevelops rapidly

MayMay require military response require military response

Threat to national / regional Threat to national / regional interestinterest

Develops rapidlyDevelops rapidly

MayMay require military response require military response

What is a Crisis?What is a Crisis? What is a Crisis?What is a Crisis?

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• Over 70 crisis events in past 10 yearsOver 70 crisis events in past 10 years

• No OPLANs apply No OPLANs apply

• Over 70 crisis events in past 10 yearsOver 70 crisis events in past 10 years

• No OPLANs apply No OPLANs apply

Why CAP?Why CAP? Why CAP?Why CAP?

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Rapid exchange of informationRapid exchange of information

Analysis of situations affecting possible COAsAnalysis of situations affecting possible COAs

Development of valid COAsDevelopment of valid COAs

Decision making process to select best COAsDecision making process to select best COAs

Coordination of plans and orders to implement Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions madedecisions made

Rapid exchange of informationRapid exchange of information

Analysis of situations affecting possible COAsAnalysis of situations affecting possible COAs

Development of valid COAsDevelopment of valid COAs

Decision making process to select best COAsDecision making process to select best COAs

Coordination of plans and orders to implement Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions madedecisions made

CAP Process FeaturesCAP Process Features CAP Process FeaturesCAP Process Features

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Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process

II Situation DevelopmentSituation Development

IIII Crisis AssessmentCrisis Assessment

IIIIII Course of Action DevelopmentCourse of Action Development

IVIV Course of Action SelectionCourse of Action Selection

VV Execution PlanningExecution Planning

VIVI ExecutionExecution

II Situation DevelopmentSituation Development

IIII Crisis AssessmentCrisis Assessment

IIIIII Course of Action DevelopmentCourse of Action Development

IVIV Course of Action SelectionCourse of Action Selection

VV Execution PlanningExecution Planning

VIVI ExecutionExecution

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IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

VIVIExecutionExecution

CINC’sCINC’sAssessmentAssessment

CJCSCJCSWarningWarning

OrderOrder

Commander’sCommander’sEstimateEstimate

CJCSCJCSPlanningPlanning

Or AlertOr AlertOrderOrder

CJCSCJCSDeploymentDeployment

Or ExecuteOr ExecuteOrderOrder


CINCCINCDeploymentDeployment


CINC’sCINC’sWarningWarning

OrderOrder

CINCCINCPlanningPlanning


NCANCACJCSCJCS

OPORDOPORD

CTF PLANNINGCTF PLANNINGCTF PLANNINGCTF PLANNING

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

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PHASE IPHASE ISituation DevelopmentSituation Development

PHASE IPHASE ISituation DevelopmentSituation Development




NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTFCRISISCRISISCRISISCRISIS

IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



COMMANDER'S ASSESSMENT:COMMANDER'S ASSESSMENT:• Nature of CrisisNature of Crisis• Forces AvailableForces Available• Deployment TimelineDeployment Timeline• Major Constraints / RestraintsMajor Constraints / Restraints• Actions in ProgressActions in Progress• Preliminary COAsPreliminary COAs

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PHASE IIPHASE IICrisis AssessmentCrisis Assessment


IIIICrisisCrisis




OrderOrder

NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF



IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



NCA Considers:NCA Considers:• National InterestsNational Interests• National ObjectivesNational Objectives• Crisis DeterminationCrisis Determination

CINC:CINC:• Issues Status ReportsIssues Status Reports• Assesses Force DispositionAssesses Force Disposition• Preparatory ActionsPreparatory Actions

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IIIICrisisCrisis




OrderOrder

NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF



IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



WARNING ORDER:• Situation• C2 Relationships• Mission, Objective, and

Assumptions• Allocate Forces and

Transportation Assets• Guidance & Instructions

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PHASE IIIPHASE IIICOA DevelopmentCOA Development

PHASE IIIPHASE IIICOA DevelopmentCOA Development

IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder




IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



IIIICrisisCrisis


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

CTF Tasks:CTF Tasks:• Mission AnalysisMission Analysis• Issue Planning GuidanceIssue Planning Guidance• Issue Warning OrdersIssue Warning Orders• Develop COAsDevelop COAs• Develop Staff EstimatesDevelop Staff Estimates• Analysis of COAsAnalysis of COAs• Comparison of COAsComparison of COAs• Recommend COA Recommend COA • Submit Cmdr’s EstimateSubmit Cmdr’s Estimate

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THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATETHE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATETHE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATETHE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE

IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder




IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



IIIICrisisCrisis


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

6 PARAGRAPHS:• Mission• Situation and COAs• Analysis of COAs• Comparison of COAs• Recommended COA• Remarks

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

ACTIONS ANALYZE THE MISSION RESTATE THE MISSION LIST ESSENTIAL TASKS

GOALPROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE

PARA 1: MISSION

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

PARA 2: SITUATION & COAS

Considerations Affecting Possible COA’sCharacteristics of the Operations AreaFactors that Effect the CrisisASSUMPTIONS

Threat and Crisis FactorsMost ProbableMost Dangerous

Courses of ActionWHO will take actionWHAT Type of ActionWHEN the Action BeginsWHERE the Action Takes PlaceWHY (Commander’s Intent)HOW (Method of Force Employment)

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

PARA 3: COA ANALYSIS

Detailed Description of War-Gaming of Courses of Action

Address Friendly Actions and Consequences to Those Actions for each COA

Illustrates the Task Force Commander’s Consideration of Most Probable and Most Dangerous Factors for Each COA

MPCOAMPCOAMPCOAMPCOA MDCOAMDCOAMDCOAMDCOA

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

PARA 4: COA COMPARISON

List Strengths and Weaknesses of Each COA

Highlight Differences in Strengths for each COA

Pay Particular Attention to Commander’s Intent and Guidance

Comparison CriteriaComparison Criteria

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

PARA 5: RECOMMENDED COA

Task Force Commander’s Recommendation for Course of Action

May Provide Rationale Used by Commander in the Decision Process

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

PARA 6: REMARKS

Requests for Additional Forces

Recommended Changes to the Rules of Engagement

Caveats to Courses of Action if there are Changes to the Situation

Third Party InterventionImpact of Possible EventsImpending Refugee Problem

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IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

COMMANDER’S ESTIMATESUMMARY

Submitted by the Task Force Commander in Response to the Warning Order

Reflects Task Force Commander’s Analysis of Possible Courses of Action

Recommends a Best Course of Action in Response to a Crisis Situation

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COA VALIDITY TESTSCOA VALIDITY TESTSCOA VALIDITY TESTSCOA VALIDITY TESTS

IIIIIICOACOA



OrderOrder




OrderOrder




IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



IIIICrisisCrisis


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

VALID COAs AREVALID COAs ARE• SuitableSuitable• FeasibleFeasible• AcceptableAcceptable• DistinguishableDistinguishable• CompleteComplete

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IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection







PHASE IVPHASE IVCOA SelectionCOA Selection

PHASE IVPHASE IVCOA SelectionCOA Selection





IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

NCA ConsidersNCA ConsidersCOAs:COAs:•DiplomaticDiplomatic•Informational Informational •MilitaryMilitary•EconomicEconomic

NCA SELECTSNCA SELECTSCOACOA

CTF ACTIONS:CTF ACTIONS:• Prepare OPLANsPrepare OPLANs• Force ProtectionForce Protection• Refine EstimatesRefine Estimates• Resolve ShortfallsResolve Shortfalls

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PHASE VPHASE VExecution PlanningExecution Planning

PHASE VPHASE VExecution PlanningExecution Planning






OPORDOPORD




IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection

NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

CTF Focus:CTF Focus:• Forces Available Forces Available • Force SustainmentForce Sustainment• Strategic MobilityStrategic Mobility• TimelineTimeline• ShortfallsShortfalls• Refine Ops Plan untilRefine Ops Plan until EXORDEXORD

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PHASE VIPHASE VIExecutionExecutionPHASE VIPHASE VIExecutionExecution








IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection


NCANCACJCSCJCS

CINCCINC

CTFCTF

Execution Features:Execution Features: • Continuous up-channelContinuous up-channel reportingreporting• Phase continues until crisisPhase continues until crisis resolved or mission terminated,resolved or mission terminated, and force redeploymentand force redeployment completedcompleted

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IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection





OrderOrder










OrderOrder



NCANCACJCSCJCS

OPORDOPORD


CINCCINC

CTFCTF

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CAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPSCAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPSCAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPSCAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPSWARNORDWARNORD PLORDPLORD ALORDALORD DEPORDDEPORD EXORDEXORD

PROVIDE RELIEF PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia)(Somalia) XX XX XX

PROVIDE COMFORT PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq)(N. Iraq) XX XX XX XX

PROVIDE HOPE PROVIDE HOPE (Russia)(Russia) XX XX

PROVIDE PROMISE PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo)(Yugo) XX XX XX XX

ABLE SENTRY ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia)(Macedonia) XX XX

Haiti Advisory Group Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti)(Haiti) XX XX

VIGILANT WARRIOR VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq)(Iraq) XX XX

UPHOLD DEMOCRACY UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti)(Haiti) XX X X XX XXXX

DESERT STRIKE DESERT STRIKE (Iraq)(Iraq) XX X XX X

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Crisis Action Planning SummaryCrisis Action Planning SummaryCrisis Action Planning SummaryCrisis Action Planning Summary



IIIICrisisCrisis


IIIIIICOACOA


IVIVCOACOA

SelectionSelection



Monitorsituation

Gatherinformation

Takeappropriateactions

Increasedinformationgathering

Review ofoptions

COAsdeveloped- major forces- support

COAsevaluated

Strategiccommandrefines &presentsCOAs

NCA COAdecision

Deploymentplancompleted

Operationsorderdeveloped

ExecuteOPORDs

Reporting

Transition / redeploy

Termination / Resolution

NCA NCA

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CAP KEY POINTSCAP KEY POINTS• THE CRISISTHE CRISIS

– Develops RapidlyDevelops Rapidly– Threat to National / Regional InterestThreat to National / Regional Interest– May Require a Military ResponseMay Require a Military Response

• CAP FEATURESCAP FEATURES– Facilitates Rapid Exchange of InformationFacilitates Rapid Exchange of Information– Requires Collaborative & Concurrent PlanningRequires Collaborative & Concurrent Planning

• WHY CAP?WHY CAP?– Time constraints Prevent Deliberate PlanningTime constraints Prevent Deliberate Planning– No existing Operation Plan AppliesNo existing Operation Plan Applies

Designed to support a commander’s efforts to develop, Designed to support a commander’s efforts to develop, analyze, select and implement a military COAanalyze, select and implement a military COA

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Questions?Questions?



Questions?Questions?

Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)