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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Enhancing investment decisions NRB Bearings Ltd Q3FY14 Results Update

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

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Page 1: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Enhancing investment decisions

NRB Bearings Ltd

Q3FY14 Results Update

Page 2: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis

of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL

Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL

Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India’s leading ratings agency.

We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world’s largest banks and leading corporations.

About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian

economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry

research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more

than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income

markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries.

We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity

research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and

data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our

extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an

innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information

management specialists.

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CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id, to fulfil your request and service

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Last updated: May, 2013

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias

the grading recommendation of the company.

Disclaimer:

This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd.

(CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to

change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report

constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use

made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This

report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or

communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any

purpose.

Page 3: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

NRB Bearings Ltd

Muted revenue growth and higher tax impact profitability

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 4/5 (CMP has upside)

Industry Auto Components

1

February 07, 2014

Fair Value ₹46

CMP ₹38

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

NRB Bearings Ltd’s Q3FY14 earnings were below CRISIL Research’s expectations primarily

due to higher-than-expected tax. The company had to make ₹10 mn additional tax provision

for last year. The business performance was largely as expected. Standalone revenue growth

was marginally up 5% y-o-y to ₹1,509 mn because domestic (OEM) sales (60% of total sales)

were flat owing to slowdown in domestic automobile industry. EBITDA margin was down by

107 bps y-o-y to 17.3% as prices of key raw material, steel, increased 6.7% y-o-y. Following

flat EBITDA and higher tax, PAT declined by 41% y-o-y to ₹87 mn. We marginally lower our

FY14 PAT estimate to factor in higher-than-expected tax. We retain FY15 and FY16 PAT

estimates as we expect recovery in the domestic automobile market from FY15. We maintain

the fundamental grade of 4/5.

Slowdown in domestic automobile industry led to muted revenue growth

Overall revenue growth was marginally up y-o-y because domestic (OEM) sales (60% of

sales) were flat y-o-y at ₹892 mn. Within domestic (OEM) sales, two-wheeler industry sales

(47% of domestic OEM sales) grew 9.7% y-o-y while commercial vehicle industry sales

declined by 22% y-o-y. Exports (24% of total sales), up 11% y-o-y to ₹360 mn, helped to

marginally reduce the impact of sluggish domestic automobile market.

Aftermarket segment picks up, as expected

As highlighted in our initiating coverage report, the company has been focusing on the

aftermarket segment since Q2FY14. The aftermarket segment (16% of sales) posted 22% y-

o-y growth to ₹232 mn.

Profitability impacted due to higher tax outgo

Profit after tax declined by 41% y-o-y to ₹87 mn in Q3FY14 due to higher tax outgo. The

increase in tax was on account of (i) reduction in tax exemption at the Pantnagar plant to

30% from 100% effective FY13 and (ii) ₹10 mn additional tax provision for FY13. Excluding

the additional tax provision for FY13, the effective tax rate would be ~27% in Q3FY14.

Valuations: Current market price has upside

We have marginally lowered our FY14 PAT estimate primarily to factor in higher-than-

expected tax. We maintain our discounted cash flow (DCF) based fair value of ₹46 per share.

The fair value implies P/E multiples of 8.8x and 7.1x in FY15E and FY16E EPS, respectively.

At the current market price of ₹38, the valuation grade is 4/5.

KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)

(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Operating income 5,600 5,912 6,161 7,017 7,942

EBITDA 1,156 1,071 1,069 1,274 1,466

Adj net income 500 449 353 508 629

Adj EPS (₹) 5.2 4.6 3.6 5.2 6.5

EPS growth (%) (13.0) (10.3) (21.4) 44.1 23.7

Dividend yield (%) 5.4 4.6 3.3 4.9 6.6

RoCE (%) 21.2 15.6 15.6 18.9 20.8

RoE (%) 22.7 20.7 16.7 21.5 23.3

PE (x) 7.2 8.0 10.2 7.1 5.7

P/BV (x) 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.5 4.0

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX 6063/20377

NSE/BSE ticker NRBBEARING/NRB

Face value (₹ per share) 2

Shares outstanding (mn) 96.9

Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 3,488/57

Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 6,180/102

52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 42/29

Beta 0.9

Free float (%) 37.2%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 79,739

Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 3.3

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

NRB Bearings -9% 11% 20% 8%

CNX 500 -2% -1% 12% 0%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT

Mohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Elizabeth John [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor

Fundamentals

Excellent

Fundamentals

Str

on

g

Do

wn

sid

e

Str

on

g

Up

sid

e72.4%

62.8% 62.8% 62.5%

7.9%18.7% 19.0% 19.0%

5.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

14.8% 17.3% 17.0% 17.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

Promoter FII DII Others

Page 4: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

2

Q3FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)

(₹ mn) Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) 9MFY14 9MFY13 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 1,509 1,541 1,442 (2) 5 4,370 4,350 0.4

Raw material cost 729 760 684 (4) 6 2,126 2,044 4.0

Raw material as % of sales 48.3% 49.3% 47.5% -101 bps 82 bps 48.7% 47.0% 166 bps

Other expenses 270 281 259 (4) 5 801 827 -3.1

Employees cost 250 238 235 5 6 714 717 -0.4

EBITDA 261 263 264 (1) (1) 729 762 -4.4

EBITDA margin 17.3% 17.1% 18.3% 20 bps -107 bps 16.7% 17.5% -85 bps

Depreciation 85 84 75 1 13 249 225 11.0

EBIT 176 179 190 (2) (7) 479 538 -10.9

Interest and finance charges 44 44 49 (1) (10) 129 123 5.3

Operating PBT 132 135 141 (2) (6) 350 415 -15.7

Other income 0 11 0 (98) 100 23 22 5.0

PBT 132 146 141 (9) (6) 374 438 -14.6

Tax 45 40 (6) 12 (893) 112 69 63.1

PAT 87 106 147 (17) (41) 262 369 -29.0

Adj PAT 87 106 147 (17) (41) 262 369 -29.0

Adj PAT margin 5.8% 6.8% 10.2% -107 bps -440 bps 6.0% 8.5% -249 bps

No. of equity shares (mn) 96.9 96.9 96.9 0 0 96.9 96.9 0

Adj EPS (₹) 0.90 1.09 1.51 (17) (41) 2.70 3.81 -29.0

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Muted revenue growth y-o-y... ... and higher tax outgo impacted profitability

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

1,509 1,417 1,492 1,442 1,445 1,319 1,541 1,509

17.3% 16.9%16.0%

17.2%

13.8%14.8%

17.1% 17.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

Ma

r-1

2

Jun-1

2

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Mar-

13

Jun-1

3

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

(₹ mn)

Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

131 109 114 147 101 69 105 87

8.7%

7.7% 7.6%

10.2%

7.0%

5.3%

6.8%

5.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ma

r-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Sep

-12

De

c-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

(₹ mn)

PAT PAT margin (RHS)

Page 5: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

NRB Bearings Ltd

3

Segment-wise revenue mix Segment-wise growth rates y-o-y

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Steel HR prices rose 6.7% y-o-y and 3.1% q-o-q Steel CR prices up 5.4% y-o-y and 2.8% q-o-q

Source: Metal Bulletin, CRISIL Research Source: Metal Bulletin, CRISIL Research

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

67% 63% 64% 66% 68%59% 60%

15%14% 13% 13% 13%

14% 16%

18%23% 23% 21% 19%

27% 24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14

Domestic market Aftermarket Export market

-8%

-6%

-2% -1%

-16%

-23%

3%

22%24%

1%

21%

11%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14

Domestic market Aftermarket Export market

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Q3

FY

07

Q3

FY

08

Q3

FY

09

Q3

FY

10

Q3

FY

11

Q3

FY

12

Q3

FY

13

Q3

FY

14

(₹/tonne)

HR price trend

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Q3

FY

07

Q3

FY

08

Q3

FY

09

Q3

FY

10

Q3

FY

11

Q3

FY

12

Q3

FY

13

Q3

FY

14

(₹/tonne)

CR price trend

-

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-0

6

Jul-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Au

g-0

7

Feb-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Ma

r-09

Oc

t-0

9

Ap

r-1

0

Nov

-10

May-1

1

Dec

-11

Jun-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Jul-1

3

Feb-1

4

NRB Bearings CNX 500

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2-J

an

-14

6-J

an

-14

8-J

an

-14

10-J

an-1

4

14-J

an-1

4

16-J

an-1

4

20-J

an

-14

22-J

an-1

4

24-J

an-1

4

28-J

an-1

4

30-J

an-1

4

3-F

eb

-14

5-F

eb-1

4

7-F

eb-1

4

('000)(₹)

Total traded Quantity Fair value NRB Bearings

Page 6: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

4

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars Unit

FY14E FY15E FY16E

Old New % change Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (₹ mn) 6,211 6,161 -0.8 7,017 7,017 0.0 7,942 7,942 0.0

EBITDA (₹ mn) 1,084 1,069 -1.4 1,274 1,274 0.0 1,466 1,466 0.0

EBITDA margin % 17.5 17.4 -10bps 18.2 18.2 0bps 18.5 18.5 0bps

PBT (₹ mn) 524 509 -2.9 708 708 0.0 874 874 0.0

Tax (₹ mn) 142 148 4.3 191 191 0.0 236 236 0.0

PAT (₹ mn) 374 353 -5.7 508 508 0.0 629 629 0.0

PAT margin % 6.0 5.7 -29bps 7.2 7.2 0bps 7.9 7.9 0bps

EPS ₹ 3.9 3.6 -5.7 5.2 5.2 0.0 6.5 6.5 0.0

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item FY14E FY15E and FY16E

Revenues Marginally lowered as sales have been slightly below our

expectations

No change

EBITDA margins Largely unchanged No change. We expect EBITDA margin to improve to 18.5% in

FY16, following an improvement in demand

PAT margins Raised to factor in higher tax outgo following additional tax

provisioning for FY13

No change. We expect profitability to improve in FY15 and

further in FY16 following a) a likely recovery in the domestic

automobile market, b) EBITDA margin improvement and c) start

of operating leverage

Quarterly result comparison

Bearing companies

Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

NRB Bearings Timken India NRB Bearings Timken India NRB Bearings Timken India

Revenue (₹ mn) 1,509 1,745 1,541 1,791 1,319 1,703

EBITDA margins (%) 17.3% 5.6% 17.1% 9.2% 14.8% 10.7%

PAT (₹ mn) 87 46 106 132 69 121

PAT margins (%) 5.8% 2.6% 6.8% 7.4% 5.3% 7.1%

Source: Companies, CRISIL Research

Auto component companies

Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14

Motherson Sumi Munjal Showa Motherson Sumi Munjal Showa Motherson Sumi Munjal Showa

Revenue (₹ mn) 11,059 4,159 11,165 3,666 10,782 3,988

EBITDA margins (%) 20.6% 7.5% 17.9% 4.9% 13.7% 6.9%

PAT (₹ mn) 1237 216 1182 96 808 196

PAT margins (%) 11.2% 5.2% 10.6% 2.6% 7.5% 4.9%

Source: Companies, CRISIL Research

Page 7: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

NRB Bearings Ltd

5

Valuation Grade: 4/5

We maintain our DCF-based fair value of ₹46 per share. The fair value implies P/E multiples

of 8.8x and 7.1x in FY15E and FY16E EPS, respectively. At the current market price of ₹38,

the valuation grade is 4/5.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on NRB Bearings Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

02-Jan-2014 Detailed report 4/5 ₹46 5/5 ₹36

07-Feb-2014 Q3FY14 result update 4/5 ₹46 4/5 ₹38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ap

r-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Oc

t-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

No

v-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

(₹)

NRB 6x 8x 9x 12x 15x

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Ap

r-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

No

v-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Au

g-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

No

v-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

(₹ mn)

EV 3x 4x 5x 8x

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Ap

r-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Nov-0

9

Feb-1

0

Jun-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Jan-1

1

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-1

2

Nov-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Jun-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Jan-1

4

Premium/Discount to CNX 500

Median premium/discount to CNX 500

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ap

r-0

9

Jul-0

9

Nov

-09

Feb-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Jan-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Dec

-11

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-1

2

Nov

-12

Mar-

13

Jun-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Jan-1

4

(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

Page 8: CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research · CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix ... We are the sole provider of debt

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

6

Annexure: Consolidated Financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

Income statement Balance Sheet

(₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Operating income 4,817 5,600 5,912 6,161 7,017 7,942 Liabilities

EBITDA 1,162 1,156 1,071 1,069 1,274 1,466 Equity share capital 194 194 194 194 194

EBITDA margin 24.1% 20.6% 18.1% 17.4% 18.2% 18.5% Reserves 2,144 1,787 1,996 2,291 2,637

Depreciation 240 293 321 337 366 394 Minorities 9 17 26 34 43

EBIT 922 863 751 732 908 1,072 Net worth 2,346 1,998 2,216 2,519 2,874

Interest 76 154 206 225 205 211 Convertible debt - - -

Operating PBT 846 710 544 507 703 861 Other debt 2,575 2,723 2,445 2,415 2,515

Other income 5 24 35 2 5 13 Total debt 2,575 2,723 2,445 2,415 2,515

Exceptional inc/(exp) (40) (1) 23 - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 119 102 102 102 102

PBT 811 733 603 509 708 874 Total liabilities 5,040 4,822 4,762 5,036 5,491

Tax provision 264 224 122 148 191 236 Assets

Minority interest 12 10 9 9 9 9 Net f ixed assets 2,303 2,174 2,386 2,346 2,501

PAT (Reported) 535 499 472 353 508 629 Capital WIP 456 349 74 24 24

Less: Exceptionals (40) (1) 23 - - - Total fixed assets 2,758 2,522 2,460 2,369 2,525

Adjusted PAT 575 500 449 353 508 629 Investments 2 2 2 2 2

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 1,378 1,475 1,553 1,730 1,915

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Sundry debtors 1,256 1,515 1,435 1,538 1,741

Growth Loans and advances 344 414 432 492 572

Operating income (%) 34.7 16.3 5.6 4.2 13.9 13.2 Cash & bank balance 556 31 86 265 281

EBITDA (%) 91.0 (0.5) (7.3) (0.2) 19.1 15.1 Marketable securities 1 1 1 1 1

Adj PAT (%) 164.3 (13.0) (10.3) (21.4) 44.1 23.7 Total current assets 3,534 3,436 3,506 4,026 4,509

Adj EPS (%) 32.1 (13.0) (10.3) (21.4) 44.1 23.7 Total current liabilities 1,266 1,150 1,218 1,374 1,558

Net current assets 2,268 2,286 2,288 2,652 2,951

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 12 13 13 13 13

EBITDA margin (%) 24.1 20.6 18.1 17.4 18.2 18.5 Total assets 5,040 4,822 4,762 5,036 5,491

Adj PAT Margin (%) 11.9 8.9 7.6 5.7 7.2 7.9

RoE (%) 30.1 22.7 20.7 16.7 21.5 23.3 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 31.2 21.2 15.6 15.6 18.9 20.8 (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

RoIC (%) 23.2 18.4 15.4 12.7 15.7 17.6 Pre-tax profit 734 580 509 708 874

Total tax paid (221) (140) (148) (191) (236)

Valuations Depreciation 293 321 337 366 394

Price-earnings (x) 6.2 7.2 8.0 10.2 7.1 5.7 Working capital changes (482) (542) 52 (185) (283)

Price-book (x) 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Net cash from operations 325 219 751 698 748

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.0 4.9 5.9 5.6 4.5 4.0 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 Capital expenditure (1,061) (86) (275) (275) (550)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 36.2 38.8 34.9 33.7 34.9 37.4 Investments and others (2) (0) - - -

Dividend yield (%) 5.4 5.4 4.6 3.3 4.9 6.6 Net cash from investments (1,062) (86) (275) (275) (550)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 60 - - - -

Inventory days 125 129 127 127 125 123 Debt raised/(repaid) 1,436 148 (278) (30) 100

Creditors days 93 74 64 65 65 65 Dividend (incl. tax) (224) (192) (143) (214) (283)

Debtor days 72 77 87 85 80 80 Others (incl extraordinaries) (69) (614) - 0 0

Working capital days 87 104 130 130 124 123 Net cash from financing 1,202 (658) (421) (244) (183)

Gross asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 Change in cash position 465 (525) 55 179 15

Net asset turnover (x) 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 Closing cash 556 31 86 265 281

Sales/operating assets (x) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2

Current ratio (x) 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9

Debt-equity (x) 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9

Net debt/equity (x) 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8

Interest coverage (₹ mn) Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14

EBIT/Interest (x) 12.2 5.6 3.6 3.3 4.4 5.1 Net Sales 1,442 1,445 1,319 1,541 1,509

EBITDA/Interest (x) 15.4 7.5 5.2 4.8 6.2 7.0 Change (q-o-q) -3% 0% -9% 17% -2%

EBITDA 249 200 195 263 261

Per share Change (q-o-q) 4% -19% -2% 35% -1%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E EBITDA margin 17.2% 13.8% 14.8% 17.1% 17.3%

Adj EPS (₹) 5.9 5.2 4.6 3.6 5.2 6.5 PAT 147 101 69 105 87

CEPS (₹) 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.1 9.0 10.6 Adj PAT 147 101 69 105 87

Book value (₹) 21.3 24.2 20.6 22.9 26.0 29.6 Change (q-o-q) 29% -31% -32% 51% -17%

Dividend (₹) 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 Adj PAT margin 10.2% 7.0% 5.3% 6.8% 5.8%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 96.9 Adj EPS 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9

Quarterly financials (Standalone)

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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

CRISIL Research Team

President

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Analytical Contacts

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Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]

Mohit Modi Director, Equity Research +91 22 4254 2860 [email protected]

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Business Development

Hani Jalan Director, Capital Markets +91 22 3342 3077 [email protected]

Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]

Business Development – Equity Research

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