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Could Railways Have Done More to Aid Economic Development in India
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9/6/2015 Could railways have done more to aid economic development in India?
http://www.ideasforindia.in/article.aspx?article_id=142 1/3
Dan Bogart University of [email protected]
Latika Chaudhury Naval Postgraduate School
Topics: InfrastructureTags: railways , transport
Could railways have done more to aid economic development in India? Posted On: 29 May 2013 Section: Columns
Indian Railways celebrated its 160thanniversary last month. This columnargues that while railways played alarge economic role in British India, itis likely they could have done more toaid economic growth and developmentin the country.
Between 1850 and India’sindependence in 1947, railways werethe most important infrastructuredevelopment in the country. In termsof the economy, railways played amajor role in integrating markets andincreasing trade. In terms of politics,railways shaped the finances of thecolonial government and the PrincelyStates. Indian political institutionsinfluenced railway ownership and
policy, which in turn influenced railway performance. As the 20th century progressed, railways became a forcefor independence and democracy.
While the Government of India had a strong influence on railways from the beginning, the government’s roleincreased over time. Railways were partially nationalised between 1880 and 1908 as the Government of Indiaassumed a majority ownership stake in most of the main trunk lines. Complete nationalisation occurredbetween 1924 and 1947 as the colonial government assumed full control over operations.
Dividend guarantees were a key feature of the early era of private ownership before 1880. The Britishcompanies that built and operated the early railways were guaranteed a 5% return on their capital
investment1. Guarantees were costly because they dulled incentives to lower operational costs, but it is likelythey encouraged rapid railway development. The only alternative was large scale government ownership andinvestment, which was unlikely given India’s fiscal development around that time.
Economic role in British IndiaThe performance of Indian railways can be classified into two periods: pre1920 and post1920. There was atrend to higher output, productivity, and profits between 1850 and 1919. The rate of total factor productivitygrowth, which is the difference between output growth and average of input growth, was similar to moreadvanced countries. But after 1920 there was a leveling off in productivity, and an increase in fares. The lowproductivity often associated with Indian railways began in the second quarter of the 20th century.
Traffic developed slowly in the first decade of railway operations, but the subsequent increase in traffic waslarge, surprising even official estimates. In the absence of comparable alternatives, Indians used railways totransport goods and people. The key questions are whether the introduction of railways increased marketintegration and price convergence, and also whether railways substantially increased income.
Railways and pricesA large body of research has examined the effects of railways on price convergence. Hurd (1975) comparedaverage prices and variation in prices across railway and nonrailways districts. In railway districts, prices wereless dispersed and closer to the average as compared to nonrailway districts. McAlpin (1974) found that pricesof both food and nonfood crops converged as railway development expanded. However, Andrabi andKuehlwein (2010) imply that railways can explain only 20% of the overall 60% decrease in crossdistrict pricedispersion between the 1860s and 1900s. They conclude that the effects of railways on market integrationare overstated. Meanwhile, in an innovative study, Donaldson (2012) shows that interdistrict pricedifferences in salt are equal to trade costs because salt is produced in only one district and consumed in manyother districts. He then measures trade costs and finds the arrival of railways significantly reduced trade costs,and that railroads significantly increased trade flows.
The different conclusions partly stem from the commodity being studied. Grain was a more important goodthan salt in terms of total value, but it was not always traded between regions even after railways entered.The conclusions may also differ because there is a missing variable in both analyses, which is the freight ratecharged by railways in each market. Data from the Administration Reports show that freight rates differedacross commodities, with special rates sometimes being offered on grain or coal. More research is needed tounderstand how railways influenced markets, incorporating the role of freight rates and different goods and
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9/6/2015 Could railways have done more to aid economic development in India?
http://www.ideasforindia.in/article.aspx?article_id=142 2/3
inputs used in production.
Railways and incomesHistorians have long argued that national income would have been far smaller in most countries if railwayshad never been introduced. Hurd (1983) was the first to make a social savings calculation for Indian railways.He assumed that without railways, freight rates would have been between 80 and 90% higher, based on theobserved differences between rail freight rates and those for bullock carts during the mid 19th century. Usingthe volume of freight traffic in 1900, Hurd estimated the social savings to be Rs.1.2 billion or 9% of nationalincome. The estimated social savings of railways are large considering real GDP increased by around 50% from1870 to 1913.
Why did railways have a relatively large impact in India? We think there are two reasons. First, railways were far superior to the existing transport technology in India.Bullock carts were not an effective alternative to railways and India did not have an extensive inlandwaterway network. Second, Indian railways experienced high levels of totalfactor productivity growth afterthey were constructed. The social savings of any technological innovation is partly due to improvements inefficiency after the original breakthrough. According to our estimates the high level of railway productivitygrowth accounts for over 13% of all national income per capita growth from 1874 to 1912 (Bogart andChaudhary, 2013).
The social savings methodology provides a powerful and simple tool, but it has some problems. First, it is notclear what the price of road or water transport would have been in the absence of railways. Congestion wouldhave increased on roads and rivers with the increased traffic volume. The cost of using alternative transportmodes is arguably underestimated in most cases as a result. Second, the social savings calculation omitsspillovers or indirect effects. In theory, railways should increase demand for iron and steel and increasecompetition in manufacturing. They also contribute to agglomeration of economic activity, like the emergenceof cities.
In spite of these critiques, there are reasons to doubt the importance of spillovers in the Indian case. Most ironand steel imports came from Britain and thus there was limited scope for increase in demand due to railways.The manufacturing sector was small as well, so the effect of railways on competition in manufacturing wasrelatively weak. Indian cities also remained quite small well into the 20th century.
Indian Railways could have done moreIt appears that railways’ primary impact in the Indian economy was to increase interregional andinternational trade. But this raises a different question. Why didn’t railways do more, such as spurring a higherrate of economic growth? Some scholars blame colonial policy. The Indian government paid a lot of attentionto profits, and freight rates were perhaps not set at the socially optimal level. There is also criticism thatpassenger services were given insufficient attention. Fares were quite high considering income levels in India.For example, Thomas Robertson, a contemporary critic of Indian railways, argued in 1903 that Indian faresand rates should be onesixth of English fares, when in fact they averaged between onethird to twothird.Ultimately, it seems the railways could have done more to aid Indian economic development by setting‘developmental’ fares and freight charges.
This column has been reprinted with permission from India at LSE (http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/indiaatlse/)
Notes:1. Private British companies constructed the initial railway lines in India and a majority of the capital wasraised in Britain.
Further ReadingBogart, Dan and Chaudhary, Latika, Railways in Colonial India: An Economic Achievement? (May 1, 2012).Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2073256Andrabi, Tahir and Michael Kuehlwein. 2010. “Railways and Price Convergence in British India.” Journal ofEconomic History, 70 (2): 351377.Bogart, Dan and Chaudhary, Latika Regulation, Ownership and Costs: A Historical Perspective from IndianRailways, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4 (2011), 2857.Bogart, Dan and Chaudhary, Latika Engines of Growth, the Productivity Advance of Indian Railways, 18741913. Forthcoming, Journal of Economic History, 2013.Donaldson, Dave. 2012. “Railways of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure,”Working paper.Hurd, John II. 1975. “Railways and the Expansion of Markets in India 18611921.” Explorations inEconomic History, 12 (3): 263288.Hurd, John II. 1983. “Railways” in ch. 8 of the Cambridge Economic History of India, vol. 2:17571970.Eds. D. Kumar and M. Desai. London: Cambridge University Press.McAlpin, Michelle Burge. 1974. “Railroads, Prices and Peasant Rationality: India,18601900.”Journal of Economic History, 34 (3): 66284.
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