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Credit Trends:
Rising Stars In Emerging AndDeveloped Markets, Including TheU.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Global Fixed Income Research:
Diane Vazza, Managing Director, New York (1) 212-438-2760; [email protected]
Gregg Moskowitz, Associate, New York (1) 212-438-1838; [email protected]
Research Contributor:
Abhik Debnath, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai
Table Of Contents
Rising Star Activity
Profile Of Potential Rising Stars
Returns And Spreads Among Rising Stars
Business And Financial Risk Profiles Among Potential Rising Stars
Related Criteria And Research
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Credit Trends:
Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets,Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
The number of rising stars increased to 24 from 23 since the last reporting period. We define rising stars as issuers that
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has upgraded to investment grade (rated 'BBB-' and higher) from speculative grade
(rated 'BB+' and lower). The 24 rising stars account for US$55.1 (€43.14) billion in rated debt.
Since the last report, the number of issuers with the greatest potential for upgrades to investment grade has remained
constant at 23 issuers. Of the 23 potential rising stars, 15 (65%) are based in the U.S and four (17.4%) are based in
Europe. The 23 potential rising stars account for US$185.6 (€145.4) billion in rated debt, which is significantly less than
the US$962.7 (€757.4) in rated debt of the 53 potential fallen angels (entities most at risk of downgrade to speculative
grade) as of Nov. 9, 2012.
The highlights since the last report are:
• The number of potential rising stars remained unchanged at 23, with two removals and two additions.
• The 24 rising stars account for US$55.1 (€43.14) billion in rated debt.
• Fallen angels have outpaced rising stars, with a total of 37 issuers so far this year (as of Nov. 9).
• Potential rising stars are spread out fairly evenly, with the transportation and media and entertainment sectors
containing the most issuers (three).
• Of the 23 potential rising stars, eight are members of Standard & Poor's equity indices.
• 79.17% of rising stars transitioned from a 'BB+' rating to a 'BBB-' rating to achieve the rising star status.
Rising Star Activity
Standard & Poor's upgraded one issuer to investment grade from speculative grade since the previous report. As of
Nov. 9, there are 24 rising stars. In comparison, the rising stars count was 30 at the same point last year. The number
of potential rising stars remained unchanged, at 23, since the last report, which suggests that the total may increase at
a steady pace going forward.
On Nov. 8, 2012, Standard & Poor's assigned its 'BBB-' global scale rating to Alpek S.A.B. de C.V. and its proposed
issuance of up to US$600 million 10-year unsecured notes. At the same time, Standard & Poor's raised its global scale
rating on the company's main subsidiary, Grupo Petrotemex S.A. de C.V., to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The outlook on both
ratings is stable. The rating actions followed Alpek's announced plans to issue long-term notes of up to US$600 million
to repay Petrotemex's debt, thus firming its credit metrics and improving its debt maturity to about seven years from
three. Petrotemex accounts for more than 70% of the consolidated EBITDA, and, therefore, the credit quality of both
companies is highly intertwined. (For more information see "Alpek S.A.B. de C.V. And Its Notes Of Up To $600M
Rated 'BBB-', Petrotemex Upgraded To 'BBB-' From 'BB+', Outlook Stable," published on Nov. 8, 2012.)
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Chart 1
Table 1
Rising Stars In 2012*
Date Issuer To From Sector/subsector Country
Affected debt
(mil. US$)
11/8/2012 Grupo Petrotemex S.A. de C.V. (Alpek
S.A.B. de C.V.)
BBB- BB+ Chemicals, packaging, and
environmental services
Mexico 275
10/2/2012 Mondi Consumer Packaging
International AG (Mondi Group)
BBB- B+ Chemicals, packaging, and
environmental services
Germany 360
9/6/2012 Harman International Industries Inc.§ BBB- BB+ Automotive U.S. 400
9/4/2012 Empresa de Energia de Bogota S. A. E.
S. P. (EEB)
BBB- BB+ Utility Colombia 610
8/28/2012 Gazprombank (OAO Gazprom ) BBB- BB+ Bank Russia 6,252
8/13/2012 Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co. (Kinder
Morgan Inc.)
BBB BB Oil and gas exploration and
production
U.S. 1,790
7/11/2012 Flowserve Corp. BBB- BB+ Capital goods U.S. 500
7/5/2012 Philippine Long Distance Telephone
Co.
BBB- BB+ Telecommunications Philippines 300
7/2/2012 CF Industries Inc. BBB- BB+ Chemicals, packaging, and
environmental services
U.S. 1,600
5/24/2012 El Paso Pipeline Partners L.P. (Kinder
Morgan Inc.)
BBB- BB Oil and gas exploration and
production
U.S. 1,675
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 1
Rising Stars In 2012* (cont.)
5/23/2012 Superior Energy Services Inc.§ BBB- BB+ Oil and gas exploration and
production
U.S. 1,500
5/23/2012 Construtora Norberto Odebrecht S.A.
(Odebrecht S.A.)
BBB- BB+ Capital goods Brazil 2,050
5/14/2012 Flint Energy Services Ltd. (URS Corp.) BBB- BB- Oil and gas exploration and
production
Canada 175
5/2/2012 Latvia (Republic of) BBB- BB+ Sovereign Latvia 2,921
4/30/2012 Dollar General Corp. BBB- BB+ Retail / restaurants U.S. 3,631
4/26/2012 Textron Financial Corp. (Textron Inc.) BBB- BB+ Finance companies U.S. 885
4/25/2012 Lam Research Corp.§ BBB- BB+ High technology U.S. 900
4/13/2012 PNM Resources Inc. BBB- BB Utility U.S. 1,572
4/4/2012 BRF Brasil Foods S.A. BBB- BB+ Consumer products Brazil 1,000
4/3/2012 Uruguay (Oriental Republic of) BBB- BB+ Sovereign Uruguay 9,184
3/26/2012 LyondellBasell Industries N.V. BBB- BB+ Chemicals, packaging, and
environmental services
Netherlands 6,988
3/15/2012 Regions Financial Corp.§ BBB- BB+ Bank U.S. 6,210
3/14/2012 Mohawk Industries Inc.§ BBB- BB+ Forest products and building
materials
U.S. 1,300
2/14/2012 Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide
Inc.§
BBB- BB+ Media and entertainment U.S. 3,000
Note: The parent companies are listed in parentheses. *Data as of Nov. 9, 2012. §Standard & Poor's index constituent. Source: Standard & Poor's
Global Fixed Income Research.
Fallen angels typically outnumber rising stars. The fallen angels count exceeded the rising stars' in 14 of the past 25
years (1987-2011) (see chart 2). And although rising stars outpaced fallen angels in 2010, the usual pattern resumed in
2011, with fallen angels surpassing rising stars globally 45 to 38.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Chart 2
Profile Of Potential Rising Stars
As of Nov. 9, 2012, 23 globally rated entities showed the greatest potential to achieve rising star status. Together, these
entities had US$185.6 (€145.4) billion in rated debt. Since our most recent report, we added two entities and removed
two entities. We added Continental Resources Inc. and ITV PLC after Standard & Poor's assigned positive ratings
outlooks to both companies. We removed eAccess Ltd. after Standard & Poor's placed the rating on CreditWatch
developing, and we removed Grupo Petrotemex S.A. de C.V. (Alpek S.A.B. de C.V.) after it achieved rising star status
(Standard & Poor's raised the long-term rating to 'BBB-' from 'BB+').
Geographically, the U.S. continues to account for a large number of the potential rising stars, with 15 (65%) of the 23
issuers, followed by Europe with four issuers (17%).
The transportation and media and entertainment sectors have the most potential rising stars, with four issuers each
(see chart 3). All other sectors account for one or two issuers each.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Chart 3
In total, eight of the 23 potential rising stars are members of Standard & Poor's equity indices: four in the S&P 500
Index and four in the S&P Midcap 400 Index.
We define potential rising stars as entities that Standard & Poor's may upgrade to investment grade. These issuers are
currently rated 'BB+', and the rating either has a positive rating outlook or is on CreditWatch positive. A positive
outlook or a CreditWatch positive placement is a good leading indicator of actual upgrades. Standard & Poor's Global
Fixed Income Research published a long-term study that corroborates this (see "CreditWatch And Rating Outlooks
Provide Powerful Warning Signals," published Aug. 7, 2007). The CreditWatch status and rating outlook are strong
predictors of rating actions, both in the aggregate and broken down by rating category, region, or sector. For example,
the study showed that, on average, 46% of 'BBB' rated companies with positive outlooks were upgraded within 13
months, and 61% of companies with ratings on CreditWatch positive were upgraded within eight months.
The number of global potential rising stars correlates with business cycles--a general peak at or near the beginning of a
recession, a sharp decline during a recession, and a gradual increase during a recovery period (see chart 4). Based on
this relationship, as the economy grows, we expect rising star potential to slowly increase to an eventual peak at some
point in the middle of the current business cycle. However, as history suggests, deviations could occur.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Chart 4
Returns And Spreads Among Rising Stars
Ongoing surveillance of entities with rising star potential is important for bondholders because the value of their
holdings could change if Standard & Poor's upgrades the rising stars. Moreover, from the issuer's perspective, the cost
of capital generally declines significantly across the rising star threshold. Standard & Poor's ratings play a critical role
in determining the margins issuers pay above risk-free U.S. Treasuries to access credit markets. The threshold between
investment-grade ratings ('BBB-' or higher) and speculative-grade ratings ('BB+' or lower) has important market
implications for the cost of borrowing among issuers. For issuers in the 'BBB' rating category ('BBB+', 'BBB', and
'BBB-'), bond spreads were 184 basis points (bps) to 257 bps greater than the benchmark five-year Treasury yield
during the 12 months ended Oct. 26, 2012. Borrowing spreads expand by 373 bps to 538 bps more than Treasuries for
issuers in the 'BB' rating category ('BB+', 'BB', and 'BB-') in the same period (see table 2 and chart 5).
Table 2
Impact On Borrowing Costs By Threshold Rating Category
Rating Minimum spread Maximum spread
BBB 184 257
BB 373 538
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 2
Impact On Borrowing Costs By Threshold Rating Category (cont.)
The spread data is expressed in basis points. Option-adjusted spread ranges listed for U.S. nonfinancial and financial entities in the period Oct. 31,
2011 - Oct. 26, 2012.
Chart 5
Business And Financial Risk Profiles Among Potential Rising Stars
Among the 23 global potential rising stars as of October 8, we list business and financial risk scores for 18 nonfinancial
entities according to Standard & Poor's latest available issuer rankings (see table 3). We further rank companies with
the same rating and outlook by Standard & Poor's opinion of credit quality based on business risks for
investment-grade companies and on financial risks for speculative-grade companies. Business risk assessments are
based on factors such as country risk, industry statistics, company position, and profitability/peer group comparison.
The financial risk assessment is based on factors such as accounting, governance/risk tolerance, cash flow adequacy,
capital structure/asset protection, and liquidity/short-term factors. Corporate business risk is categorized as excellent,
strong, satisfactory, weak, or vulnerable. Financial risk is categorized as minimal, modest, intermediate, aggressive, or
highly leveraged. Both qualifications refer to the companies' status-quo characteristics without taking into account any
extraordinary state support. Of the 18 nonfinancial entities for which business and financial risk assessments are
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
available, all have business risks of satisfactory or higher.
Table 3
Distribution Of Risk Assessments For Nonfinancial Potential Rising Stars
--Financial risk profile--
Business risk profile Minimal Modest Intermediate Aggressive Significant Highly leveraged
Excellent
Strong 1 1
Fair 1 4 3
Satisfactory 1 7
Weak
Vulnerable
Data as of Nov. 9, 2012. Source: Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research.
Table 4
Movements in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Pricing Among Potential Rising Stars
--% change from--
Entity Country Subsector
Five-year CDS spreads as
of Nov. 9, 2012 (bps)
30 days
ago
Beginning of
2012 A year ago
Jabil Circuit Inc. U.S. High technology 289 1.05 3.96 7.04
TRW Automotive Inc. U.S. Automotive 270 4.25 (34.62) (30.59)
Ford Motor Co. U.S. Automotive 249 2.89 (42.09) (41.96)
Interpublic Group of
Cos. Inc.
U.S. Media and
entertainment
185 12.12 (28.02) (22.92)
Data as of Nov. 9, 2012. CDS--Credit default swaps. Bps--Basis points. Sources: Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research and Markit
Group Ltd. (data from this source does not constitute investment advice and cannot be relied on to make investment decisions).
We closely monitor issuers as they ascend to the rising stars status in order evaluate the size of the ratings transitional
movements. In terms of becoming a rising star, the smallest incremental upward movement would be from the highest
speculative-grade rating to the lowest investment-grade rating (from 'BB+' to 'BBB-'). This transition bucket captures
79.17% of our rising stars (see table 5).
Table 5
Rising Stars Matrix (%)
Rating* AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB-
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 79.17
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 8.33
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
*The ratings may not depict the current rating on the issuer. Data as of Nov. 9, 2012. Source: Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 6
'BB+' Rated Issuers On CreditWatch Positive
Subsector Issuer Country
Debt
amount
(mil.
US$)
S&P
equity-based
index
Business
risk
Financial
risk Rationale
Insurance Amerigroup
Corp.*
U.S. 475 S&P Mid-cap
400
-- -- The positive CreditWatch placement reflects
the support and guarantees that Amerigroup
Corp. will receive for its existing 7.5% senior
notes due on 2019 from WellPoint Inc. after the
acquisition is completed. Standard & Poor's
Ratings Services will check Amerigroup's
operating performance and financial condition,
as well as the credit structure within WellPoint's
management, which if satisfactory may lead to
Standard & Poor's raising the rating up to four
notches--to be consistent with A-/Stable/--
counterparty credit rating on WellPoint.
Data as of Nov.9, 2012. Source: Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research.
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks
Subsector Issuer Country
Debt
amount
(mil.
US$)
S&P
equity-based
index
Business
risk
Financial
risk Rationale
Automotive Ford Motor
Co.*
U.S. 84,057 S&P 500 Fair Significant The outlook revision reflects,
among other things,
Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services view that Ford will
act with increasing
decisiveness and
commitment to restructure
its offices in Europe to
increase profitability amid
prospects for several more
years of weak vehicle sales
there. Ford performance in
North America continues to
support good overall
automotive cash flow and
profitability. The positive
outlook reflects Standard &
Poor's view that there is a
one-in-three chance that it
could raise the corporate
credit rating on Ford to
investment grade within 18
months--although this is not
likely before late 2013.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
Automotive TRW
Automotive
Inc.
U.S. 1,960 Fair Intermediate The outlook revision reflects
Standard & Poor's view of
TRW's firm competitive
position in the global
automobile market.
Furthermore, Standard &
Poor's may upgrade TRW to
investment grade within a
year if the company reports
continuous free cash
generation from operations,
high profitability, modest
leverage, and strong
liquidity, provided the
uncertainties arising from the
ongoing antitrust
investigation in Europe are
resolved, the company's
ability to navigate the
eurozone's very weak
economy remains intact, and
its strategy for dealing with
the 2014 debt maturities
proceeds as planned.
Bank Banco
Daycoval S.A.
Brazil 600 The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's view that
it could upgrade Daycoval if
the company sustains
improvements in its business
position over the medium to
long term amid strong capital
levels and healthy asset
quality metrics.
Bank Grupo ACP
Inversiones y
Desarrollo
Peru 85 The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's
expectation that Grupo ACP
will receive sizable dividends
from Mibanco, its core
subsidiary (and smaller
dividends from other
subsidiaries), that will allow it
to repay its debt.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
High technology Fidelity
National
Information
Services Inc.*
U.S. 4,500 S&P 500 Satisfactory Aggressive The revised rating outlook
on Fidelity National
Information Services Inc.
(FIS) reflects Standard &
Poor's view of the company's
good market position,
consistent profitability, and a
more balanced financial
policy. This will lead to
near-term improvement in
debt-protection measures
and support an improvement
in FIS' financial risk profile. A
strategic focus on largely
organic growth will enable
additional near-term
improvement in the
company's leverage. In
addition, the company
significantly addressed and
extended its 2014 debt
maturity, and it on track to
unsecure its first-lien debt.
High technology Jabil Circuit
Inc.*
U.S. 1,612 S&P 500 Fair Intermediate The positive rating outlook
reflects the potential for an
upgrade if Jabil can sustain
leverage at current levels,
while maintaining its
moderate financial policies
and adequate liquidity in an
industry known for revenue
and earnings volatility, and
relatively low average
returns on capital.
Homebuilders/real
estate companies
Colonial
Properties
Trust
U.S. 551 Fair Intermediate The positive rating outlook
on Colonial Properties
reflects Standard & Poor's
expectation for continued
strengthening in the
company's debt protection
measures from favorable
operating conditions and
sustained improvements in
asset quality from further
portfolio repositioning.
Insurance Zenith National
Insurance
Corp. (Fairfax
Financial
Holdings Ltd.)
U.S. 67 The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's view of
Zenith's importance to the
group, which incorporates
Zenith's capitalization
relative to that of the
consolidated group and the
company's business and
operation in geographic
regions consistent with
Fairfax's growth strategy.
Zenith also has a strong
competitive position
underscored by a strong
track record in producing
favorable direct loss ratio
relative to its peers'.
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Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
Integrated oil and
gas
PT Pertamina
(Persero)
Indonesia 4,000 Fair Significant The rating outlook on PT
Pertamina is consistent with
that on the long-term
sovereign credit rating on
Indonesia. We expect that
the company will remain the
government's primary
vehicle for distributing
subsidized fuel throughout
Indonesia, given its
integrated operations,
dominance in the country's
upstream and downstream
oil and gas segments, and the
strong demand prospects for
energy in the country.
Media and
entertainment
Interpublic
Group of Cos.
Inc.*
U.S. 2,525 S&P 500 Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
the potential for a one-notch
upgrade during the next 12
months if Standard & Poor's
becomes confident that the
company can continue its
progress toward improving
profitability and credit
metrics, which will depend
on the economic outlook and
business unit operational
execution.
Media and
entertainment
ITV PLC§ U.K. 1,101 Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
the possibility of a single
notch upgrade in the next 12
months, based on the
company's strong credit
metrics and steady business
operations and performance.
Standard & Poor's views
adjusted debt to EBITDA of
about 2.5x and free operating
cash flow of more than 10%
as commensurate with an
investment-grade rating.
Media and
entertainment
Las Vegas
Sands Corp.
U.S. 12,870 Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's view that
an upgrade is possible based
on the company's current
performance expectations,
particularly in the event of a
strong ramp-up of Sands
Cotai Central. Standard &
Poor's could upgrade the
company to investment
grade if management
proposes a financial policy
around its tolerance for
leverage that is aligned with
the leverage threshold at a
'BBB-' rating.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
Metals, mining, and
steel
Steel Dynamics
Inc.*
U.S. 2,388 S&P Mid-cap
400
Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's view that
the company's end markets
should continue to slowly
recover and this could result
in credit metric being
maintained at a level
consistent with a higher
rating, including debt to
EBITDA of less than 3x and
funds from operations (FFO)
to total debt of more than
30%.
Oil and gas
exploration and
production
Continental
Resources Inc.§
U.S. 2,900 Fair Significant The positive rating outlook
on Continental Resources
reflects the possibility that
Standard & Poor's could
upgrade Continental
Resources if the company
continues to increase
production and reserves
while maintaining a
conservative capital
structure and moves closer
toward spending within its
cash flows.
Oil and gas
exploration and
production
HollyFrontier
Corp.*
U.S. 350 S&P Mid-cap
400
Fair Modest The upward revision of the
rating outlook on U.S.-based
petroleum refiner and
marketing company
HollyFrontier Corp. reflects
the company's long track
record of being one of the
most profitable refineries in
the U.S. coupled with better
profitability and low financial
leverage metrics. The better
financial performance is also
attributed to favorable
pricing on West Texas
Intermediate crude (WTI)
relative to Brent and
Louisiana Light Sweet crude.
Retail / restaurants Sally Beauty
Holdings Inc.*
U.S. 3,200 Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
our view that Sally Beauty
would maintain its positive
operating momentum, with
organic sales growth of
9%-11%, positive
comparable-store sales, and
modest gross margin
improvement, thereby
resulting in improving credit
metrics over the near term.
We could raise the rating if
the company were to
improve and sustain debt
leverage in 2.5x area.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
Sovereign Indonesia
(Republic of)
Indonesia 56,285 The positive outlook reflects
the likelihood of an upgrade
if inflation is tamed while
balance sheet improvements
continue, likely in
combination with successful
implementation of parts of
the government's fiscal,
foreign direct investment
support, and allowing
subsidy cuts without
reversing recent
improvements in inflation,
and structural reform
agenda. The outlook also
reflects continuing
improvements in the
government's balance sheet
and external liquidity, a
resilient economic
performance, and cautious
fiscal management.
Transportation Aeroporti di
Roma SpA
Italy 34 Strong Highly
Leveraged
The positive outlook on
Italy-based airport operator
Aeroporti di Roma reflects
the company's improved
credit measures following its
new €400 million syndicated
term loan, which would be
adequate to repay Tranche
A1 of the debt its finance
subsidiary holds. The term
loan reduces the liquidity
pressure that the company
has been experiencing. There
is a possibility of an upgrade
if the company's credit
measures improve such that
the adjusted FFO-to-debt
ratio remains higher than
12% on a sustained basis.
Transportation Brussels
Airport Holding
S.A./N.V.
Belgium 2 Strong Aggressive The upward revision of the
rating outlook on Brussels
Airport Holdings followed
the recent improvement in
the group's credit metrics
and Standard & Poor's
expectation that the
company will maintain FFO
to debt of more than 12% in
the near term and 13% in
2013. Further, the outlook
revision also reflects
Standard & Poor's
expectation that the group
would extend its debt
maturity profile by keeping
its debt level at the current
level.
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
Table 7
'BB+' Rated Issuers With Positive Outlooks (cont.)
Transportation Kansas City
Southern*
U.S. 2,564 S&P Mid-cap
400
Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
the Kansas City Southern's
credit metrics and liquidity,
which have continued to
improve as a result of
increasing earnings, debt
reduction, and reduced
interest expense. Standard &
Poor's expects that the
company's revenues and
earnings will continue to
strengthen over the next few
quarters and into 2013 due to
better pricing, rising volumes
(particularly in Mexico), and
improved operating
efficiency.
Utility Edison SpA Italy 2,299 Satisfactory Significant The positive outlook reflects
Standard & Poor's view that
Edison's stronger integration
into Electricité de France
S.A. (EDF) could have a
positive effect on the rating
on Edison in the coming
year, based on Standard &
Poor's criteria on the link
between the parent and the
subsidiary. Standard & Poor's
expects Edison to derive
benefits from EDF's
operations, strategy, control,
and management. Once EDF
effectively gains full
managerial control of Edison,
we could consider raising the
long-term rating and
stand-alone credit profile
(SACP) on Edison.
Utility Western Gas
Partners L.P.
U.S. 1,170 Fair Intermediate The positive outlook on
Western Gas Partners
reflects the partnership's
strong growth potential,
mostly fee-based business,
and continued moderate
financial leverage. Standard
& Poor's could consider an
upgrade during the next 12
months if the partnership
continues to grow while
maintaining a predominantly
fee-based model with debt to
EBITDA of less than 3.5x.
Note: The parent companies are listed in parentheses. *Denotes Standard & Poor's equity-based index constituent. §Indicates an issuer added to
the list. †Denotes an issuer whose outlook or CreditWatch has changed. Data as of Nov. 9, 2012. Source: Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income
Research.
Related Criteria And Research
• Alpek S.A.B. de C.V. And Its Notes Of Up To $600M Rated 'BBB-', Petrotemex Upgraded To 'BBB-' From 'BB+',
Outlook Stable, Nov. 8, 2012.)
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1038292 | 300098418
Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
• CreditWatch And Rating Outlooks Provide Powerful Warning Signals, Aug. 7, 2007
• A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology, Nov. 13, 2006
• A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology: Accounting And Financial Reporting, Nov. 13, 2006
• A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology: Capital Structure/Asset Protection, Nov. 13, 2006
• A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology: Cash Flow Adequacy, Nov. 13, 2006
• A Closer Look At Industrials Ratings Methodology: Liquidity, Nov. 13, 2006
• Industrials' Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix--A Fundamental Perspective On Corporate Ratings, April 7, 2005
Temporary contact numbers: Diane Vazza (646) 752-5369; Gregg Moskowitz (917) 232-3192
WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 21, 2012 17
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Credit Trends: Rising Stars In Emerging And Developed Markets, Including The U.S. And Europe: The Rising StarsCount Reaches 24
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