Creating Reasonable 10-YearCreating Reasonable 10-YearEnrollment Projections Enrollment Projections

Supported by Supported by Insightful AnalysesInsightful Analyses

Session 43 SAIR 2008Session 43 SAIR 2008Ed Rugg, Kennesaw State UniversityEd Rugg, Kennesaw State University

For handouts & slides, see Professional For handouts & slides, see Professional Presentations at http://vic.kennesaw.eduPresentations at http://vic.kennesaw.edu

So, What’s Next Fall’s So, What’s Next Fall’s Enrollment Going To Be?Enrollment Going To Be?

We’re typically We’re typically confident that confident that we have the we have the tools and tools and techniques to techniques to answer that answer that question fairly question fairly accurately. accurately.

And What Is It In 10 Years ?And What Is It In 10 Years ?

Did you Did you say 10 say 10 years?years?

My head My head hurts just hurts just thinking thinking about it.about it.

Maybe we need some helpMaybe we need some help

Seek guidance fromabove

Trylady luck Bring in a

consultant

Here are some new ideas for solving theprojection problemthat were reasonableand insightful for KSUadministrators

AnalyzingAnalyzing the the

Big Picture Big Picture

Identifying patterns in 4 decades of Identifying patterns in 4 decades of enrollment growthenrollment growth

Annual (12 mo) trends in new student Annual (12 mo) trends in new student intakes and stopout readmissionsintakes and stopout readmissions

Compounding effects for continued Compounding effects for continued growth after new intakes level off growth after new intakes level off

40 Years of Enrollment Growth at KSU

37 record-breaking fall enrollments

Focusing on the Last Five Focusing on the Last Five Years of Fall Enrollment Years of Fall Enrollment Points Sharply UpwardPoints Sharply Upward

Fall-to-fall 12% increases in Fall 2002 and again in Fall 2003 ignited rapid growth

KSU’s first on-campus housing opened, & beginning freshmen rose 36% in Fall 2002

Total enrollment jumped up nearly 6,000 (42%) from 13,951 in Fall 2001 to 19,854 in Fall 2006, growing an average of 7% per yr

Rosy Outlooks Rosy Outlooks Expect Exponential Expect Exponential

GrowthGrowthTraditional-age undergraduates appeared to Traditional-age undergraduates appeared to be booming as new on-campus student be booming as new on-campus student housing more than doubled quicklyhousing more than doubled quickly

Consultants for the University System Consultants for the University System predicted huge enrollment gains at KSU by predicted huge enrollment gains at KSU by 20202020

Administrators adopted a rosy outlook for Administrators adopted a rosy outlook for future enrollment growthfuture enrollment growth

Upon Closer Examination…Upon Closer Examination…

a longer a longer historical historical analysis of analysis of enrollment enrollment trends tells a trends tells a different story of different story of slower growth in slower growth in the futurethe future

Four Decades of Growth at KSU

Historical Student Percent Period Growth Growth

1st Decade 1966-1976 2,197 217%

2nd Decade 1976-1986 4,085 127%

3rd Decade 1986-1996 5,241 72%

4th Decade 1996-2006 7,317 58%

5th Decade 2006-2016 7,000 – 9,000 35 - 45%

% Growth--Then and Now% Growth--Then and Now

First DecadeFirst Decade10-30 new 10-30 new students = 1% students = 1% increaseincreaseAvg annual Avg annual increase = 13% increase = 13% (mean), 10% (mean), 10% (median)(median)Highest 38%Highest 38%Lowest 0%Lowest 0%6 double-digit % 6 double-digit % increasesincreases

Fourth DecadeFourth Decade125-200 new 125-200 new students = 1% students = 1% increaseincreaseAvg annual Avg annual increase = 5% increase = 5% (mean), 3% (mean), 3% (median)(median)Highest 12%Highest 12%Lowest -2%Lowest -2%2 double-digit % 2 double-digit % increases increases

Growth Conditions in Fall Growth Conditions in Fall 2002 & 2003 Were Unique2002 & 2003 Were Unique

First on-campus student housing opened First on-campus student housing opened in 2002 with upscale 4BR/4BA apartmentsin 2002 with upscale 4BR/4BA apartments

Post-9/11 recession and high Post-9/11 recession and high unemployment in 2002 sent olderunemployment in 2002 sent older

students back to college at KSUstudents back to college at KSU

Post-911 psychology of staying closer to Post-911 psychology of staying closer to home favored this metropolitan home favored this metropolitan universityuniversity

Contrary to wishful thinking…Contrary to wishful thinking…

Percentage Percentage increases in increases in enrollment growth enrollment growth over the next over the next decade are likely to decade are likely to continue to decline continue to decline as they have over as they have over the last four the last four decadesdecades

Upon Closer Examination…Upon Closer Examination…

a broader a broader analysis of annual analysis of annual (12 mo) new (12 mo) new student intakes student intakes points to slower points to slower growth and growth and informative informative insights insights

A Traditional Focus on Fall A Traditional Focus on Fall Intakes Fails to Account for Intakes Fails to Account for

Many New Students Each Yr Many New Students Each Yr

40% of the new student intakes in 12 40% of the new student intakes in 12 mos enter KSU in spring or summermos enter KSU in spring or summerWhereas beginning freshmen Whereas beginning freshmen outnumber undergraduate transfers outnumber undergraduate transfers substantially in the fall, transfers substantially in the fall, transfers outnumber freshmen over 12 mosoutnumber freshmen over 12 mosThe readmission of returning stopouts The readmission of returning stopouts is very large every term.is very large every term.

Undergraduate Transfer Undergraduate Transfer Intakes Not Growing MuchIntakes Not Growing Much

12-mos12-mos #New#New %Chg%Chg

2001-02 2,4232001-02 2,423

2002-03 3,015 24%2002-03 3,015 24%

2003-04 2,972 - 1%2003-04 2,972 - 1%

2004-05 3,027 2%2004-05 3,027 2%

2005-06 3,172 5%2005-06 3,172 5%

2006-07 3,010 -5%2006-07 3,010 -5%

2007-08 3,068 2%2007-08 3,068 2%

After a big jump up After a big jump up five years ago from five years ago from 2,400 to 3,000 per 2,400 to 3,000 per year, KSU’s largest year, KSU’s largest component of new component of new student intakes has student intakes has been sustained at the been sustained at the higher level but higher level but without much growth without much growth

Beginning Freshmen Growing Beginning Freshmen Growing Some But Not ConsistentlySome But Not Consistently

12-mos12-mos #New#New %Chg%Chg

2001-02 2,057 2001-02 2,057

2002-03 2,621 27%2002-03 2,621 27%

2003-04 2,729 4%2003-04 2,729 4%

2004-05 2,227 -18%2004-05 2,227 -18%

2005-06 2,653 19%2005-06 2,653 19%

2006-07 3,013 14%2006-07 3,013 14%

2007-08 2,908 - 3% 2007-08 2,908 - 3%

After a big jump up After a big jump up five years ago from five years ago from 2,000 to 2,600 per 2,000 to 2,600 per year, KSU’s second year, KSU’s second largest group of new largest group of new student intakes has student intakes has fluctuated but been fluctuated but been sustained at the sustained at the higher level with higher level with some growth recently some growth recently to 2,900to 2,900

Readmitted Stopouts Are a Big Readmitted Stopouts Are a Big Group But Not GrowingGroup But Not Growing

12-mos12-mos #Read#Read %Chg%Chg

2001-02 1,971 2001-02 1,971

2002-03 1,836 - 7%2002-03 1,836 - 7%

2003-04 1,802 - 2%2003-04 1,802 - 2%

2004-05 1,805 UNC2004-05 1,805 UNC

2005-06 1,844 2%2005-06 1,844 2%

2006-07 1,684 - 9%2006-07 1,684 - 9%

2007-08 1,739 3% 2007-08 1,739 3%

Stopouts (now Stopouts (now defined as returning defined as returning after an absence of after an absence of six consecutive six consecutive terms) are the third terms) are the third largest intake group largest intake group annually and have annually and have remained relatively remained relatively stable atstable at the 1,800 the 1,800 level.level.

New Graduate Students Are New Graduate Students Are Growing Modestly RecentlyGrowing Modestly Recently

12-mos12-mos #New#New %Chg%Chg

2001-02 1,1892001-02 1,189

2002-03 1,106 - 7%2002-03 1,106 - 7%

2003-04 1,079 - 2%2003-04 1,079 - 2%

2004-05 1,178 7%2004-05 1,178 7%

2005-06 1,208 3%2005-06 1,208 3%

2006-07 1,343 11%2006-07 1,343 11%

2007-08 1,381 3%2007-08 1,381 3%

GGraduate students raduate students are the fourth are the fourth largest group of largest group of new intakes new intakes annually, and annually, and they have started they have started to show modest to show modest growth to the growth to the 1,300+ student 1,300+ student level in recentlevel in recent yearsyears

Despite Dreams of Despite Dreams of Exponential Growth…Exponential Growth…

None of the four None of the four major new student major new student intake groups have intake groups have had strong and had strong and sustained growth sustained growth trends since 2002-trends since 2002-0303

So, Where is Enrollment So, Where is Enrollment Growth Coming From?Growth Coming From?

Each year since 2002-Each year since 2002-03, larger entering 03, larger entering cohorts of beginning cohorts of beginning freshmen and transfers freshmen and transfers have replaced older have replaced older and substantially and substantially smaller graduating smaller graduating cohorts creating cohorts creating cumulative growth, cumulative growth, despite a lack of intake despite a lack of intake growthgrowth

Cumulative Growth From Cumulative Growth From Returning StudentsReturning Students

With no cohort growth, With no cohort growth, most of the impact most of the impact that each new cohort that each new cohort of beginning freshmen of beginning freshmen since 2002-03 has on since 2002-03 has on KSU’s growth of the KSU’s growth of the returning student returning student population should end population should end after 8 yrs (5 yrs for after 8 yrs (5 yrs for transfers)transfers)

Growth Should Slow SoonGrowth Should Slow Soon

The cumulative The cumulative growth effects of growth effects of larger new cohorts larger new cohorts replacing smaller replacing smaller graduating ones will graduating ones will slow and end soon if slow and end soon if new intake cohorts new intake cohorts continue to fail to continue to fail to grow substantiallygrow substantially

Looking Beyond Fall’s Beginning Looking Beyond Fall’s Beginning Freshmen for GrowthFreshmen for Growth

Develop a 12-Develop a 12-pronged recruitment pronged recruitment plan for beginning plan for beginning freshmen, freshmen, undergraduate undergraduate transfers, readmitted transfers, readmitted stopouts and stopouts and graduate students graduate students for Fall, Spring and for Fall, Spring and Summer termsSummer terms

KSU’s 10-Year Enrollment KSU’s 10-Year Enrollment Projection: Projection:

From 20,000 in Fall 2006 toFrom 20,000 in Fall 2006 to27,000 – 29,000 by 201627,000 – 29,000 by 2016

40-year trends and new student intake 40-year trends and new student intake analyses for the last five years indicate a analyses for the last five years indicate a slowing average % growth in fall slowing average % growth in fall enrollment to between 3-4 % per year for enrollment to between 3-4 % per year for the fifth decade. (Since this projection the fifth decade. (Since this projection was formulated, KSU’s fall enrollment was formulated, KSU’s fall enrollment growth was up 3.8% in Fall 2007 and growth was up 3.8% in Fall 2007 and 4.1% in Fall 2008). 4.1% in Fall 2008).

What Will Be KSU’s 5th Decade’s What Will Be KSU’s 5th Decade’s Encore for Another Strong Uptick Encore for Another Strong Uptick in Sustained New Student Intakes in Sustained New Student Intakes

??????

Will more on-campus housing do it?Will more on-campus housing do it?

Will adding football do it?Will adding football do it?

Will an economic recession do it?Will an economic recession do it?

Will an effective 12-pronged recruitment Will an effective 12-pronged recruitment plan do it? plan do it?

Will more programs & faculty do it?Will more programs & faculty do it?

If Anyone Can Beat a 10-Year If Anyone Can Beat a 10-Year Projection, KSU Can !Projection, KSU Can !

For handouts & slides, see For handouts & slides, see Professional Presentations at Professional Presentations at

http://vic.kennesaw.eduhttp://vic.kennesaw.edu

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