To: Wyoming Legislature

From: Megan Degenfelder, Chief Policy Officer

Date: December 26, 2018

Subject: Hathaway Scholarship Program Annual Reporting

In administering the Hathaway Scholarship, W.S. 21-16-1308(c) requires the Wyoming Department of Education (WDE) to “establish annual reporting procedures for purposes of policy analysis and program evaluation and providing accurate data to the legislature and governor relative to the program’s impact on the state and on students.” Additionally, per W.S. 21-16-1308(d), the WDE is required to provide an annual report to the governor and legislature. The series of statistical reports, included as Appendix A, include links to the following data:

• Hathaway Enrollment by Institution• Hathaway Enrollment by District• Retention Rates by Institution and Scholarship Level• Persistence Rates by Institution and Scholarship Level• Loss of Eligibility Rates• Completion Rates• Time to Degree

Included as Appendices B and C are two additional studies pursuant to W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(vii) and (viii):

• The relationship between student course data, student grade data, and junior year (first attempt) ACT scores for 2016-17 Wyoming high school graduates.

• The relationship between student course data, student grade data, and first year college or university grade point average.

Additionally, Appendix D highlights some current trends resulting from this data.

CREATING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STUDENTS TO KEEP WYOMING STRONG

JILLIAN BALOWSuperintendent of Public Instruction

DICKY SHANORChief of Staff

SHELLEY HAMELChief Academic Officer

MEGAN DEGENFELDERChief Policy Officer

DIANNE BAILEYChief Operations Officer

CHEYENNE OFFICE122 W. 25th St. Suite E200 Cheyenne, WY 82002307-777-7675

RIVERTON OFFICE320 West MainRiverton, WY 82501307-857-9250

ON THE WEBedu.wyoming.govtwitter.com/WYOEducationfacebook.com/WYOEducation 1

Statute Report

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(vi) 01. Hathaway Enrollment by Institution (All Students)

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(vi) 02. Hathaway Enrollment by Institution (Wyoming Public School Graduates)

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(vi) 03. Hathaway Enrollment by District (Wyoming Public School Graduates)

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(vi)W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(i)

04. Retention Rates By Institution and Scholarship Level

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(iii) 05. Persistence Rates By Institution and Scholarship Level

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 06. Loss of Eligibility All Students

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 07. Loss of Eligibility All Students After First Year

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 08. Loss of Eligibility All Students After First Year By Instructional Program

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 09. Loss of Eligibility All Students By Instructional Program (All Years)

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 10. Loss of Eligibility - Failure to Complete Required Minimum Non-Remedial Credits

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 11. Loss of Eligibility by Program - Failure to Complete Required Minimum Non-Remedial Credits

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 12. Loss of Eligibility - Failure to Meet Required Minimum GPA

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 13. Loss of Eligibility by Program - Failure to Meet Required Minimum GPA

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 14. Loss of Eligibility - Failure to Meet Minimum Credit Hours and GPA

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 15. Loss of Eligibility by Program - Failure to Meet Minimum Credit Hours and GPA

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 16. Loss of Eligibility - Students Who Failed to Maintain Continuous Enrollment

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 17. Loss of Eligibility by Program - Students Who Failed to Maintain Continuous Enrollment

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 18. Loss of Eligibility by Scholarship Type, Qualification Type and Lost Eligibility Reason

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(ii) 19. Loss of Eligibility by Program, Qualification Type and Lost Eligibility Reason

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(iv) 20. Students Who Completed a Certificate or Degree within Four Years by Scholarship Category

W.S. 21-16-1308(c)(v) 21. Mean Length of Time to Complete a Certificate or Degree by Scholarship Category

Appendix A 2018 Hathaway Scholarship Program Statistical Series Report

Appendix BAN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN

COURSEWORK COMPLETION, GRADES EARNED, AND ACT SCORE FOR WYOMING 2016-17 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

November 2018

PAGE 2

SUMMARYW.S. 21-16-1308 (c) (vii) requires the Wyoming Department of Education (WDE) to complete “statistical studies on the relationship between the courses taken and grades earned by a high school student and the student’s score associated with the 2015-2016 national percentile rankings, on an examination administered throughout the United States and relied upon by institutions of higher education to determine acceptance of students for attendance or score on the WORKKEYS test.”

The following study explores the relationships between student course data, student grade data, and junior year (first attempt) ACT scores for 2016-17 Wyoming high school graduates, and finds that prior achievement and current achievement are highly correlated. After controlling for prior achievement, there are fourteen high school courses that are significantly related to junior year ACT score. AP Calculus, Calculus, Pre-Calculus, Trigonometry, Trigonometry/Algebra, AP Literature, AP Composition, Physics, Anatomy, and Chemistry are positively correlated with ACT score. Consumer Math, Pre-Algebra, English IV, and Integrated Science are negatively correlated with ACT score.

Course grade is also significantly related to ACT score. The greatest difference in ACT score is between a grade of “A” and a grade of “B” for nearly all courses.

MATHEMATICS RESULTS

• For nearly all courses, students who earn a grade of ‘A’ achieve significantly higher ACT scores than those who achieve a ‘B’ or lower.

○ The difference in ACT score between other grades earned, such as between ‘B’ and ‘C’ is significant less often.

• Wyoming graduates who complete higher level math courses in high school have higher ACT math sub-scores.

• Wyoming graduates who complete lower level math courses in high school have lower ACT math sub-scores.

PAGE 3

MATHEMATICS: COURSE SEQUENCE EXAMPLESAVERAGE ACT AND GRADE 8 PAWS SCORES BASED ON COURSE SEQUENCETABLE 1.1

Example Sequence # Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS Math Score

Average ACT Math Sub-

Score

1 Pre-Algebra Algebra I Geometry N/A 697 16

2 Algebra I Geometry Algebra II N/A 725 18

3 Algebra I Algebra II Geometry Pre-Calculus 762 22

4 Algebra II Geometry Pre-Calculus Calculus 796 25Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘D’ or better.

TABLE 1.2

Example Sequence # Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS Math Score

Average ACT Math Sub-

Score

1 Pre-Algebra Algebra I Geometry N/A 711 17

2 Algebra I Geometry Algebra II N/A 773 22

3 Algebra I Algebra II Geometry Pre-Calculus 793 24

4 Algebra II Geometry Pre-Calculus Calculus 806 27Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘A’.

ENGLISH RESULTS

• In nearly all courses, students who earn a grade of ‘A’ achieve significantly higher ACT scores than those who achieve a ‘B’ or lower.

○ The difference in ACT score between other grades, such as ‘B’ and ‘C’ is significant less often.• Wyoming graduates who complete advanced placement English courses in high school have higher

ACT English sub-scores. • Wyoming graduates who complete lower level English courses in junior/senior year have lower ACT

English sub-scores.

PAGE 4

ENGLISH: COURSE SEQUENCE EXAMPLESAVERAGE ACT AND GRADE 8 PAWS SCORES BASED ON COURSE SEQUENCETABLE 2.1

Example Sequence # Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS

Reading Score

Average ACT Reading Sub-

Score

1 English I English II English III English IV 707 20

2 English I English II Literature AP Literature 737 24

3 English I English II English III AP Composition 746 27

4 English I English II AP Composition AP Literature 760 28

Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘D’ or better.

TABLE 2.2

Example Sequence # Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS

Reading Score

Average ACT Reading Sub-

Score

1 English I English II English III English IV 738 23

2 English I English II Literature AP Literature 751 25

3 English I English II English III AP Composition 752 28

4 English I English II AP Composition AP Literature 766 29

Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘A’.

SCIENCE RESULTS

• In nearly all courses, students who earn a grade of ‘A’ achieve significantly higher ACT scores than those who achieve a ‘B’ or lower.

○ The difference in ACT score between other grades, such as ‘B’ and ‘C’ is significant less often.

PAGE 5

• Wyoming graduates who complete higher level science courses in high school have higher ACT science sub-scores.

SCIENCE: COURSE SEQUENCE EXAMPLESAVERAGE ACT AND GRADE 8 PAWS SCORES BASED ON COURSE SEQUENCETABLE 3.1

Example Sequence

#Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS

Science Score

Average ACT Science Sub-

Score

1 Biology Physical Science Geology N/A 632 18

2 Biology Physical Science Anatomy Chemistry 663 22

3 Biology Physical Science Chemistry Physics 674 22

4 Biology Anatomy Chemistry Physics 699 25Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘D’ or better.

TABLE 3.2

Example Sequence

#Course 1 Course 2 Course 3 Course 4

Average 8th Grade PAWS

Science Score

Average ACT Science Sub-

Score

1 Biology Physical Science Geology N/A * *

2 Biology Physical Science Anatomy Chemistry 690 25

3 Biology Physical Science Chemistry Physics 703 25

4 Biology Anatomy Chemistry Physics 717 26Note: Students that complete their courses with a grade of ‘A’.*Too few students in course sequence 1 completed their courses with A.

PAGE 6

REGRESSION RESULTS

Significant Relationship – Positive Effect

No Significant Relationship

Significant Relationship – Negative Effect

TABLE 4

COURSE SCED CODE SIGNIFICANT P < .05 (adjusted)

EFFECT SIZE ACT SUBJECT SUB-

SCORE

% OF ALL STUDENTS

COMPLETING COURSE

AP Calculus AB 02124 Yes 2.3 5.5%

Calculus 02121 Yes 1.7 5.1%

Pre-Calculus 02110 Yes 1.1 25.1%

Trigonometry/Algebra 02106 Yes 0.9 19.9%

Trigonometry 02103 Yes 0.5 5.3%

Algebra II 02056 No ~ 75.8%

Geometry 02072 No ~ 85.8%

Algebra III 02057 No ~ 6.0%

Algebra I 02052 No ~ 75.8%

Pre-Algebra 02051 Yes -0.6 7.1%

Consumer Math 02157 Yes -0.6 6.3%

AP Literature 01006 Yes 2.2 7.4%

AP Composition 01005 Yes 2.0 6.0%

English I 01001 No ~ 91.5%

Public Speaking 01151 No ~ 15.4%

Composition II 01102 No ~ 7.5%

PAGE 7

COURSE SCED CODE SIGNIFICANT P < .05 (adjusted)

EFFECT SIZE ACT SUBJECT SUB-

SCORE

% OF ALL STUDENTS

COMPLETING COURSE

Creative Writing 01104 No ~ 6.5%

Strategic Reading 01066 No ~ 9.8%

English II 01002 No ~ 90.9%

English III 01003 No ~ 56.3%

Literature All No ~ 36.5%

English IV 01004 Yes -1.0 56.0%

Physics 03151 Yes 0.8 18.5%

Chemistry 03101 Yes 1.1 56.3%

Anatomy and Physiology 03053 Yes 0.5 18.4%

Advanced Biology 03052 No ~ 11.0%

Zoology 03061 No ~ 8.1%

Earth Science 03001 No ~ 11.7%

Geology 03002 No ~ 18.1%

Botany 03058 No ~ 5.5%

Physical Science 03159 No ~ 54.4%

Environmental Science 03003 No ~ 12.1%

Biology 03051 No ~ 89.3%

Integrated Science 03201 Yes -0.6 15.8%

This is an observational study and no causal conclusions can be drawn from it. After controlling for prior achievement, several courses still show significant effects. However, many unobserved variables remain unaccounted for. This study is also limited by data quality as well as inconsistency across districts in grade scales and other factors. Finally, some of the higher level courses, showing the strongest effects, may have been taken after the junior year ACT exam. In this case, while the courses are correlated with higher ACT scores, it would be impossible for them to have affected the ACT score.

Appendix CAN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN

COURSEWORK COMPLETION, GRADES EARNED, AND FIRST YEAR COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY GPA FOR WYOMING 2016-17

HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

November 2018

PAGE 2

SUMMARYW.S. 21-16-1308 (c) (viii) requires the Wyoming Department of Education (WDE) to complete “statistical studies on the relationship between the courses taken and the grades earned in high school and the student’s college or university GPA.” Data was analyzed for 1,605 2016-17 Wyoming high school graduates who used Hathaway Scholarship Program benefits in 2017-18. The below analysis is outlined into two sections:

• High School Course Completion VS. first year college/university GPA • High School Course Grade VS. first year college/university GPA

There are ten high school courses where completion is significantly correlated with first year college/university GPA. These include AP Calculus, Calculus, Pre-Calculus, AP Composition, AP Literature, Chemistry, Pre-Algebra, Algebra I, and English IV, and Earth Science. Students that completed any of the first six courses had higher first year college or university GPAs than the students that did not complete them. These results are consistent with the four prior years. In general, grade earned in high school courses is a better indicator of first year college/university GPA than which courses were completed.Students who earn high grades in high school courses tend to have higher first year college or university GPAs. The difference in college GPA, between students who earn high school course grades of “A” and “B”, is significant most often. These relationships are not necessarily causal.

HIGH SCHOOL COURSE COMPLETION VS. FIRST YEAR GPA

MATHEMATICS COURSES

• Five high school mathematics course completions are significantly correlated with first year college/university grade point average.

○ Students who completed AP Calculus, Calculus, or Pre-Calculus in high school have significantly higher first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

○ Students who completed Algebra I or Pre-Algebra in high school have significantly lower first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

PAGE 3

TABLE 1

Course SCED CODE

Course Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Non-Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Mean GPA Difference

AP Calculus 02124 3.25 2.89 0.36

Calculus 02121 3.14 2.91 0.23

Pre-Calculus 02110 3.06 2.85 0.21

Algebra I 02052 2.88 3.06 -0.18

Pre-Algebra 02051 2.38 2.95 -0.57

ENGLISH COURSES

• Three high school English course completions are significantly correlated with first year college/university grade point average.

○ Students who completed AP Literature or AP Composition in high school have significantly higher first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

○ Students who completed English IV in high school, have significantly lower first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

TABLE 2

Course SCED CODE

Course Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Non-Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Mean GPA Difference

AP Composition 01005 3.30 2.89 0.41

AP Literature 01006 3.25 2.89 0.36

English IV 01004 2.77 3.06 -0.29

PAGE 4

SCIENCE COURSES

• Two high school science course completions are significantly correlated with first year college/university grade point average.

○ Students who completed Chemistry in high school have significantly higher first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

○ Students who completed Earth Science in high school, have significantly lower first year college grade point averages than those who didn’t.

TABLE 3

Course SCED CODE

Course Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Non-Completers – Mean First Year

College/University GPA

Mean GPA Difference

Chemistry 03101 2.98 2.81 0.17

Earth Science 03001 2.75 2.95 -0.20

HIGH SCHOOL COURSE GRADE VS. FIRST YEAR GPA

MATHEMATICS COURSES

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning an “A” and a student earning a “B” is significant for 58% of high school math courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “B” and a student earning a “C” is significant for 17% of high school math courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “C” and a student earning a “D” is significant for approximately 0% of high school math courses.

PAGE 5

TABLE 4MATHEMATICS COURSES

AVERAGE FIRST YEAR COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY GPA FOR GRADE:

COURSE SCED CODE A B C D

AP Calculus 02124 3.55 2.96 2.84 ~

Trigonometry 02103 3.48 2.73 2.75 ~

Pre-Calculus 02110 3.40 2.81 2.65 2.60

Calculus 02121 3.35 3.02 ~ ~

Trigonometry / Algebra 02106 3.26 2.87 2.68 2.64

Algebra II 02056 3.24 2.75 2.61 2.27

Algebra III 02057 3.23 2.82 2.28 ~

Geometry 02072 3.18 2.82 2.40 2.19

Algebra I 02052 3.11 2.71 2.45 2.24

Consumer Math 02157 3.05 2.49 ~ ~

Integrated Math 02061 2.94 2.51 ~ ~

Pre-Algebra 02051 2.51 2.40 ~ ~~ Fewer than ten studied students earned that grade in that course and no significance test was performed.

When the colors of two grade boxes in the same row are different, this indicates that the difference in those two GPAs is ‘statistically significant’. For example, the “A” grade box for Pre-Calculus is green and the “B” grade box for Pre-Calculus is yellow. This indicates that there is a statistically significant difference between first-year college GPA for students who earn an “A” in that course vs. students who earn a “B”.

ENGLISH COURSES

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning an “A” and a student earning a “B” is significant for approximately 91% of high school English courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “B” and a student earning a “C” is significant for 18% of high school English courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “C” and a student earning a “D” is significant for 0% of high school English courses.

PAGE 6

TABLE 5ENGLISH COURSES

AVERAGE FIRST YEAR COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY GPA FOR GRADE:

COURSE SCED CODE A B C D

AP Composition 01005 3.52 2.92 2.87 ~

AP Literature 01006 3.47 2.92 2.84 ~

Composition II 01102 3.38 2.87 2.42 ~

English II 01002 3.17 2.68 2.36 1.85

Literature All 3.16 2.58 2.40 ~

English I 01001 3.15 2.62 2.42 1.66

Public Speaking 01151 3.13 2.65 2.56 ~

English III 01003 3.05 2.60 2.17 ~

English IV 01004 2.99 2.53 2.34 ~

Creative Writing 01104 2.96 2.28 ~ ~

Strategic Reading 01066 2.89 2.49 ~ ~~ Fewer than ten studied students earned that grade in that course and no significance test was performed.

SCIENCE COURSES

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning an “A” and a student earning a “B” is significant for approximately 77% of high school science courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “B” and a student earning a “C” is significant for 15% of high school science courses.

• The difference in first year college/university GPA between a student earning a “C” and a student earning a “D” is significant for 0% of high school science courses.

PAGE 7

TABLE 6SCIENCE COURSES

AVERAGE FIRST YEAR COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY GPA FOR GRADE:

COURSE SCED CODE A B C D

Botany 03058 3.31 2.84 2.48 ~

Advanced Biology 03052 3.27 2.80 2.30 ~

Anatomy And Physiology 03053 3.26 2.71 2.28 ~

Chemistry 03101 3.23 2.76 2.39 2.26

Physical Science 03159 3.23 2.67 2.43 ~

Zoology 03061 3.18 2.82 2.71 ~

Biology 03051 3.17 2.67 2.47 2.45

Physics 03151 3.16 2.74 2.19 ~

Earth Science 03001 3.11 2.36 2.44 ~

Geology 03002 3.09 2.64 2.46 ~

Astronomy 03004 3.06 2.49 ~ ~

Environmental Science 03003 3.02 2.40 ~ ~

Integrated Science 03201 2.91 2.66 2.26 ~~ Fewer than ten studied students earned that grade in that course and no significance test was performed.

Appendix D:Hathaway Data Trends

Highlights● New enrollments (initiations) continue to increase each year.● Persistence and retention rates remain flat. Provisional Opportunity students lose the

scholarship at the highest rate.○ 24% of students lose the scholarship after the first year.

■ Of those, 9% are Honors level recipients and 33% are ProvisionalOpportunity recipients.

Hathaway Retention Rates (Fall to Spring Semester)Retention rates for students tend to remain similar year-over-year. The below figures are for Freshmen students during the 2017-18 school year.

Provisional 76.87%

Opportunity 86.64%

Performance 90.61%

Honors 97.26%

Hathaway Data Trends

Hathaway Persistence Rates (Fall to Fall)Persistence rates among Hathaway students tend to remain fairly steady year-to-year. As expected, the highest scholarship tier, the Honors level, exhibits the highest persistence rates; the lowest level, the Provisional Opportunity level, exhibits the lowest persistence rates among all scholarship tiers.

Honors Performance Opportunity Provisional

2016-17 SY 82.16% 67.68% 52.09% 45.4%

2015-16 SY 81.53% 64.24% 46.5% 40.8%

2014-15 SY 78.92% 63.24% 46.67% 43.47%

2013-14 SY 80.9% 63.85% 46.42% 41.03%

CTE Concentrator Count

School Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Count 3,491 3,312 3,545

Hathaway Data Trends

CTE Participation Count

School Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Count 15,852 16,926 16,498

Hathaway New Enrollment (All Institutions)The below charts illustrate the number of new Hathaway students who have initiated the scholarship each year since the 2014-15 school year. Overall, there has been an 11 percent increase of students initiating the scholarship across all levels.

Provisional LevelStudents

OpportunityLevel

PerformanceLevel

HonorsLevel

TotalNumber ofStudents

2017-18SY

535 506 877 615 2,533

2016-17SY

554 462 799 570 2,385

2015-16SY

428 480 858 630 2,396

2014-15SY

385 469 790 605 2,249

Hathaway Data Trends

Hathaway Scholarship Corpus● Total Market Value as of June 30, 2018 --- $588.9 million.● Total Investment Earnings FY18 --- $31.9 million.

○ The Scholarship Corpus paid $17.7 million to students during the 2017-18school year.

● https://statetreasurer.wyo.gov/assets/reports/annualreport2018.pdf