Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs Presentation to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) April, 2010 DISASTER RISK

Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs

Presentation to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS)

April, 2010

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

1) Earlier projection of needs

2) Objective, science-based data and outcomes

3) Cutting-edge advancements in understanding and responding to risk,

mitigation, and response

The LEAP-LIAS interface will enable:

Why is integration important?


DR

R F

orm

ula

tio

n

= f (Hazard

Extreme Food or Livelihood Insecurity

Nature, Location and Magnitude

of shock or shocks

Household and regional

economic systems in relation to shock(s)

People’s capacity to

cope on their own

Risk ,Vulnerability/Capabilities)

Risk = f (H,V/C) Livelihoods Databases (HEA)LEAP

Why is integration important?

LEAP Yield Reduction in % (2002 Maize_Meher)

How will it work?

No. beneficiaries

LEAP crop yield reduction data by

woreda

Beneficiary numbers are then exported back to LEAP and mapped

…is automatically input into the HEA LIAS & SMaRT sheets and the scenario is run, generating beneficiary numbers by woreda

1) LEAP yield reduction figures are adjusted to be comparable to the reference year used in the LIASs

How will it work?

Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year

Apply to groups of similar crops

Adjust for LZ differences

Run the scenario in the SMaRT

Export to LEAP

2) LEAP yield reduction specifications are applied to crop groups with similar LEAP crop coefficients, start of plant date, and length

of growing period

3) Specifications are adjusted for livelihood zone differences in crops & crop proportions using a crop index for each season an

interface sheet

4) The new ‘scenario’ – informed by LEAP inputs – are run in the SMaRT tool to produce beneficiary numbers by woreda

5) Data on beneficiary numbers are exported back to LEAP through an interface sheet

LEAP yield reduction data is the percentage reduction in yield of a give crop compared to the yield obtained

without water stress

HEA data is based on a specific reference year that, while considered ‘normal’, is not equivalent to a year without

water stress

In order to be able to apply LEAP data to HEA scenarios, we must project LEAP yield reduction data to the HEA

reference year

Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year






Export to LEAP




Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together




Export to LEAP


Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together





Export to LEAP

The livelihoods databases already have specific information on where certain crops are grown – and when – for the entire country

Cropping patterns for main cereals Cropping patterns for main cereals growngrown





Export to LEAP

Most important crop sold excluding staples

Most important crop sold including staples

Cropping patterns for other cropsCropping patterns for other crops





Export to LEAP

Not all rainfall failures will affect the Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people…same people…

Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production PatternsPatterns

Unimodal

Kremt dominant – bimodal

Belg dominant – two seasons

Belg dominant, bimodal

Kremt dominant – two seasons





Export to LEAP

Percent of grain production harvested in belg

Percent of grain production planted in belg







Export to LEAP








Export to LEAP


Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the

countryDISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &





Export to LEAP

v

Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the

countryDISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &





Export to LEAP

Within one woreda, there are often areas of different agro-ecology and/or livelihoods.

We account for these differences by applying the LEAP yield reduction figures to relevant crops in each

livelihood zone, and then aggregate back to woreda level.




DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &



Export to LEAP

No. beneficiaries



Run the scenario in the

SMaRT


Export to LEAP

S M a R T T O O L : A m h a r a R e g i o n

Scenarios can be run automatically from a centralized interface for each

region.

Data on market prices, demand for labour, livestock production, and coping strategies uptake can be included in the hazard data input

into the tools.

Beneficiary numbers are then generated by woreda, and can be mapped.

LIASs: Amhara Region

Beneficiary numbers by woreda can then be exported to LEAP and mapped, along with any other relevant

parameters

Export to LEAP






Export to LEAP

No. beneficiaries

Collaboration and development of the initial interface between LEAP and the Livelihoods Databases is

ongoing.

Demonstration of the interface will take place in early June, when stakeholders will convene to determine how to move forward with continued development of

the pairing of these tools and their integration into the early warning system.


Next Steps

Extra Slides


Define YR (Yield Reduction) = Y/Y(ref), where Y is yield and ref is HEA reference year

YRLEAP = 1-Y/YLEAP

YRHEA = 1-Y/YHEA

Rearrange the first equation:

Y = (1-YRLEAP)*YLEAP

The second equation becomes:

YRHEA = 1-((1-YRLEAP)*YLEAP)/YHEA

= 1-(YLEAP/YHEA)*(1-YRLEAP

Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year




Export to LEAP

Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year


If YRLEAP for meher maize in the HEA reference year is 10% (0.1), and YR for the current year is 40% (0.4), YR adjusted for HEA (YRHEA) =

YLEAP = 0.4, and YLEAP / YHEA = 1/(1-0.1)

YHEA = 1 – (1/0.9)*(1-0.4)

= 0.34

The adjusted YRHEA = 34% of the HEA reference year. This is the figure that will be input into the SMaRT.

For example…

Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year




Export to LEAP


Documents

Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs Presentation to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) April, 2010 DISASTER RISK