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Europe June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations

Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

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Page 1: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

EuropeJune 2016

Craig MenearChairman, CEO & President

Diane DayhoffVice President, Investor Relations

Page 2: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements

2

Certain statements contained in today’s presentations constitute "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may relate to, among other things, the demand for our products and services; net sales growth; comparable store sales; effects of competition; state of the economy; state of the residential construction, housing and home improvement markets; state of the credit markets, including mortgages, home equity loans and consumer credit; demand for credit offerings; inventory and in-stock positions; implementation of store, interconnected retail and supply chain initiatives; management of relationships with our suppliers and vendors; the impact and expected outcome of investigations, inquiries, claims and litigation, including those related to the 2014 data breach; issues related to the payment methods we accept; continuation of share repurchase programs; net earnings performance; earnings per share; dividend targets; capital allocation and expenditures; liquidity; return on invested capital; expense leverage; stock-based compensation expense; commodity price inflation and deflation; the ability to issue debt on terms and at rates acceptable to us; the effect of accounting charges; the effect of adopting certain accounting standards; store openings and closures; guidance for fiscal 2016 and beyond; financial outlook; and the integration of Interline Brands, Inc. into our organization and the ability to recognize the anticipated synergies and benefits of the acquisition. These forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and current assumptions, expectations and projections about future events, and actual results could differ materially from our expectations and projections. You should not rely on our forward-looking statements as they speak only as of the date hereof, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as may be required by law. Additional information regarding risks and uncertainties is described in Item 1A, "Risk Factors," and elsewhere in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for our fiscal year ended January 31, 2016 and our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

Today’s presentations are also supplemented with certain non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures better enable management and investors to understand and analyze our performance by providing them with meaningful information relevant to events of unusual nature or frequency that impact the comparability of underlying business results from period to period. However, this supplemental information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP measures. Reconciliations of the supplemental information to the comparable GAAP measures can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.homedepot.com.

Page 3: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

3

Page 4: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

First Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results

4

19.0% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q1 2016

($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Q1 2016 Q1 2015 V%Sales $22,762 $20,891 9.0%Comp Sales 6.5% 6.1%

Gross Profit $7,791 $7,179 8.5%Gross Profit Margin 34.23% 34.36% -13 bps

Total Operating Expenses $4,714 $4,582 2.9%

Operating Profit $3,077 $2,597 18.5%Operating Profit Margin 13.52% 12.43% 109 bps

Net Earnings $1,803 $1,579 14.2%

Diluted Earnings Per Share $1.44 $1.21 19.0%

Page 5: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Fiscal 2016 Guidance

5

1)

(As of May 17, 2016)

Sales growth ~6.3%

Comp store sales growth ~4.9%

Diluted EPS growth ~$6.27, or an increase of ~14.8% (after targeted share repurchases)

Share repurchases Targeting $5 billion

1) All guidance based on GAAP

Page 6: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Long Term Targets: Fiscal 2018

Comps ~4%

New Stores ~5 – 7 / Year

Total CAGR Sales Growth ~4.7%

- Includes Interline Brands

2012 2015 2018T

$75B

$88.5B

~$101B

All targets based on 52 week years

$13B

~$13B

Sales

6

Page 7: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Long Term Targets: Fiscal 2018

Operating Margin

~14.5%

2015 2018T 2015 2018T

13.3%

28% ~35%

Return on invested capital is defined as net operating profit after tax for the trailing twelve months divided by the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity. Assumes excess cash used to repurchase shares.

Return on Invested Capital

7

Page 8: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Committed to Dividend Payout

Annual Dividend Paid

$0.90 $0.95 $1.04 $1.16

$1.56

$1.88

$2.36

$2.76

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Announced 17% Increase in Quarterly Dividend in February

8

Page 9: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Shareholder Return Principals

9

Return on Invested Capital Principle Maintain high return on invested capital, benchmarking all uses of excess

liquidity against value created for shareholders through repurchases

Adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio not to exceed 2x

Dividend Principle Targeting payout at approximately 50% of earnings. Intend to increase

dividend every year

Share Repurchase Principle After meeting the needs of the business, use excess liquidity to

repurchase shares, as long as value creating

Page 10: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

10

Page 11: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

PFRI Still Below Historical Mean

11

Private Fixed Residential Investment (PFRI) as a Percentage of GDP

2.5%

3.6%

4.5%

8.8%

2.6% 3.4%

5.4%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Q2

2015

Q4

2015

PFRI as % of GDP (Nominal $) 60-year Avg. (Nominal)PFRI as % of GDP (Real $) 60-year Avg. (Real)

Source: BEA, Moody’s Economy.com

Page 12: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Home Price Recovery

12

Home Price Index Year Over Year Percent Change

Source: S&P Dow Jones, Moody’s Economy.com (Hist.) Composite average from various sources (Est.)

S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index

101

185

137

179

80

120

160

200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mar

-16

3% below peak

31%recovery

since trough

9%

7%

10% 10%

14% 14%

2%

(5%)

(12%)

(4%)(4%)

(4%)

7%

11%

5% 5% 4% 3%

2%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

E20

17E

2018

E

Page 13: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Household Formation and Aging U.S. Housing Stock Supportive of Home Improvement Spend

13

Household Formation Aging Housing Stock

1.9

0.4

1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

E20

17E

2018

E

Household Formation (m)50-Year Average

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

40+ yrs 30-39 yrs 20-29 yrs 10-19 yrs 0-9 yrs

Source: Census, Moody’s Economy.com (Hist.) Moody’s Economy.com (Est.); John Burns Real Estate Consulting (Housing Stock)

Page 14: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

14

Page 15: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

The Power of The Home Depot

Customer Experience Connecting service to

customer needs Connecting stores to

website and website to stores

Capital Allocation Driven By Productivity And Efficiency Connecting activities

to cost efficiency

Product Authority Connecting assortment

to local needs Connecting merchandise from

supplier to shelf to customer

Interconnecting Retail

15

Page 16: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Target Market Opportunity

16Sources: 2014 HIRI Reference Guide; 2015 Harvard University “Emerging Trends in the Remodeling Market”; NAICS; and external market analysis

$550B Addressable U.S. MarketHome Improvement Retail

Pro ($120B)

Consumer ($180B)

MRO

Services (Product Pull Through)

Services (Labor)

Pro

duct

sS

ervi

ces

U.S. Sales$80B

Share15%

Page 17: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Growth Driven by The Professional Customer

17

Renovator | Remodeler Installation Services Maintenance, Repair, Operations (MRO)

Page 18: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Growth Driven by Interconnected Retail

18

Shopping in New Ways Seamless Experience Higher Expectations

Page 19: Craig Menear - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/... · 2016-06-27 · June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations. Forward

Key Productivity Initiatives

19

Supply Chain Sync

Assortment Optimization

Freight Flow and Fulfillment Team

Delivery