24
Television’s Future Will TV remain the dominant mass medium? T elevision is changing rapidly, and so is the TV audience. Viewers are ignoring broadcast schedules and watching programs via Internet “streams” and iPod downloads. Or they are “time-shifting” and skipping the commercials, using digital video recorders, such as TiVo, or video-on-demand television. Millions are also spending time watching user-generated video on sites such as YouTube. Many TV executives are wondering whether television can sustain its traditional approach to making money — “renting out” millions of viewers at a time to advertisers. For all the ferment, however, Americans are watching more television than ever, using the new devices not to avoid traditional TV but to catch up on shows they otherwise would have missed. There’s an atmosphere of ex- perimentation and uncertainty in the industry reminiscent of the dot-com boom, but television and advertising executives insist that the future of TV is bright. I N S I D E THE I SSUES ...................... 147 BACKGROUND .................. 154 CHRONOLOGY .................. 155 CURRENT SITUATION .......... 158 AT I SSUE .......................... 161 OUTLOOK ........................ 163 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................. 166 THE NEXT STEP ................ 167 T HIS R EPORT New electronic devices like Apple’s video iPod not only enable viewers to watch downloaded TV programs at their convenience but also user- generated videos and other content. Above, Eva Longoria of “Desperate Housewives.” CQ R esearcher Published by CQ Press, a division of Congressional Quarterly Inc. www.cqresearcher.com CQ Researcher • Feb. 16, 2007 • www.cqresearcher.com Volume 17, Number 7 • Pages 145-168 RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS A WARD FOR EXCELLENCE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL A WARD

CQResearcher · CQ Researcher(ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acid-free paper. Published weekly, except March 23, July 6, July 13, Aug. 3, Aug. 10, Nov. 23, Dec. 21 and Dec. 28, by

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Television’s FutureWill TV remain the dominant mass medium?

Television is changing rapidly, and so is the TV

audience. Viewers are ignoring broadcast schedules

and watching programs via Internet “streams” and

iPod downloads. Or they are “time-shifting” and

skipping the commercials, using digital video recorders, such as

TiVo, or video-on-demand television. Millions are also spending

time watching user-generated video on sites such as YouTube.

Many TV executives are wondering whether television can sustain

its traditional approach to making money — “renting out” millions

of viewers at a time to advertisers. For all the ferment, however,

Americans are watching more television than ever, using the new

devices not to avoid traditional TV but to catch up on shows

they otherwise would have missed. There’s an atmosphere of ex-

perimentation and uncertainty in the industry reminiscent of the

dot-com boom, but television and advertising executives insist that

the future of TV is bright.

I

N

S

I

D

E

THE ISSUES ......................147

BACKGROUND ..................154

CHRONOLOGY ..................155

CURRENT SITUATION ..........158

AT ISSUE ..........................161

OUTLOOK ........................163

BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................166

THE NEXT STEP ................167

THISREPORT

New electronic devices like Apple’s video iPod notonly enable viewers to watch downloaded TVprograms at their convenience but also user-generated videos and other content. Above,

Eva Longoria of “Desperate Housewives.”

CQResearcherPublished by CQ Press, a division of Congressional Quarterly Inc.

www.cqresearcher.com

CQ Researcher • Feb. 16, 2007 • www.cqresearcher.comVolume 17, Number 7 • Pages 145-168

RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR

EXCELLENCE ◆ AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD

146 CQ Researcher

THE ISSUES

147 • Will the Internet kill TV?• Will TV remain a viablemedium for advertisers?• Are scripted TV showsobsolete?

BACKGROUND

154 Early TVTelevision grew rapidlyafter World War II.

157 Cable and VideoThe first cable system wascreated in 1949.

158 Regulating CompetitionTelephone companies havewanted to provide videoservice since the 1990s.

CURRENT SITUATION

158 Policy DebatesMany telecom debates areoccurring in the states.

160 All-You-Can-Eat TVTechnology is changinghow video is delivered.

OUTLOOK

163 Shifting LandscapeUpcoming changes willbe mind-boggling.

SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS

148 Most TV Households HaveCable or SatelliteAbout 85 percent subscribeto cable or satellite.

149 A Third of Watchers ViewTV Shows OnlineMost view programs onlinethat they regularly watch ontelevision.

150 Home-Grown Videos Open New FrontiersAmateur Web videos aregrowing in popularity.

152 Network TV OutpollsYouTube, MySpaceFar fewer people accessedvideo-sharing Web sites.

155 ChronologyKey events since 1941.

156 Teens’ Media MultitaskingRaises QuestionsAdults worry about the impact of kids’ distractibleTV-watching habits.

158 Most Adults Have DigitalTV and/or BroadbandOnly 35 percent have analogtelevisions.

161 At IssueShould the government preserve limits on mediaownership?

FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

165 For More InformationOrganizations to contact.

166 BibliographySelected sources used.

167 The Next StepAdditional articles.

167 Citing CQ ResearcherSample bibliography formats.

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

Cover: AP Photo/Paul Sakuma

MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Colin

ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITOR: Kathy Koch

ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Kenneth Jost

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Feb. 16, 2007Volume 17, Number 7

CQResearcher

Feb. 16, 2007 147Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Television’s Future

THE ISSUESAdvertisers always pay

dearly to run TVcommercials during

the Super Bowl, and thisyear was no exception —$2.6 million for a 30-secondspot. The commercials them-selves are often expensive,over-the top extravaganzaslike the famous MichaelJackson ads for Pepsi. Butamong this year’s crop wereseveral that had been shoton cheap digital-video cam-eras by consumers encour-aged by A lka - Se l t ze r,Chevrolet and Doritos tosubmit homemade spots.

“These are people who are[accustomed to] personalizingwhat’s important to them,whether it’s through their MP3playlist or their social-site pro-file,” said Doritos spokesmanJared Dougherty. “We want-ed to bring that to Doritos,to let them express their lovefor Doritos in 30 seconds.” 1

In a sense, this was adver-tising imitating art. Doritos andthe other companies were hop-ing to imitate the sense of free-form buzz that had been gen-erated a few months beforeby “The Diet Coke & Mentos Experi-ment,” a celebrated Internet film creat-ed by a juggler and a lawyer, whichshowed them sticking mints into plasticbottles of soda and creating fountain ef-fects worthy of the Bellagio in Las Vegas.

Originally distributed on Revver, avideo file-sharing Web site, the three-minute film was soon being viewedby millions via such popular videosites as YouTube and MySpace. It alsodrew enormous “old media” attentionand spawned countless imitators. Per-haps most significantly, the ad increased

Mentos sales by 15 percent. Partly asa result, the trade publication Adver-tising Age named consumers them-selves its “Agency of the Year.” 2

Self-generated video content has be-come one of the biggest fads of the mo-ment, with hundreds of millions of peo-ple around the world spending hoursviewing and sharing short films on theWeb. Time magazine went so far as toname “You,” as in YouTube, its “Personof the Year” — an honor traditionallybestowed on the person who has donethe most to shape the news. 3

Today’s proliferation ofmedia platforms is triggeringan explosion of user-generat-ed content and challengingthe television industry’s his-toric business model. Insteadof the age-old concept of “oneto many” — in which a net-work broadcasts a showwatched by millions simulta-neously — “one” person nowcan watch a program in “many”different ways, whether down-loaded onto a video iPod,clipped into smaller bites for“snacking” on cell phones orYouTube or “streamed” overthe Internet on a network’sown Web site. * Using digitalvideo recorders (DVRs), suchas TiVo, viewers also can de-cide when to watch a pro-gram. Traditional “appointmenttelevision” — with viewers set-tling down at 8 or 9 p.m. towatch a particular program —increasingly appears to be ahopelessly dated concept.

“The old idea of a stationhaving to pick up a signalfrom the network by landlineand delivering it to people byantennas on a big hill in yourcommunity is about as anti-quated as the blacksmithshop,” says Robert J. Thomp-son, founding director of the

Center for the Study of Popular Tele-vision at Syracuse University.

Clearly, the major networks’ near-total hegemony over video distribu-tion is ending. But it’s unclear whetherthey will surrender their dominant po-sition in producing content for mostAmericans.

BY ALAN GREENBLATT

Get

ty I

mag

es/V

ince

Bucc

i

Increasing numbers of viewers are watching TVprograms via Internet streams and iPod downloads, and

millions more are hooked on user-generated videos onsites such as YouTube. Despite all the changes, people are

watching more television than ever, including today’smost popular show, “American Idol,” shown here as hostRyan Seacrest, left, prepares to tap singer Taylor Hicks(right) as the winner of the show’s 2006 competition.

* The flow of content across multiple mediaplatforms and the willingness of media au-diences to use any platform to enjoy thekind of entertainment they like is known asconvergence.

148 CQ Researcher

The broadcast networks’ audienceshare may be shrinking, and peoplemay be uploading 70,000 videos aday onto YouTube, but even the mostpopular “viral videos,” which spreadlike a virus — such as the Mentosexperiment — are watched by fewerpeople than a moderately successfulnetwork television show. In fact, de-spite all the new television-viewingdevices and platforms, people arewatching more traditional TV —game shows, reality TV shows, sit-coms and dramas — than ever be-fore. During the 2005-2006 season,for instance, the average householdhad the television running for eighthours and 14 minutes a day — upone hour from 1996, according toNielsen Media Research. 4

Some industry experts predict thatthe new platforms — rather than “can-nibalizing” traditional TV — will in-crease its popularity by allowing peo-ple to catch up on shows they missedduring their regular broadcast time.Television executives’ new mantra isthat viewers can watch “what they

want, when they want it and how theywant it.”

By failing to embrace such a strat-egy, the music business squandered abig percentage of its business to ille-gal file-sharing, says David Poltrack,chief research officer for CBS Corp. 5

“The lesson that the television indus-try has learned from the music in-dustry is that you can’t keep the tech-nology down, so let’s use it to makeour product ubiquitous,” he says. CBSand its competitors are aggressivelynegotiating with Internet and cell phonecompanies and anyone else who cankeep them a step or two ahead ofconsumers wanting to watch popularshows like “House” or “Lost” on a newplatform.

“We are not a television company.We are a sports media company,” saidJohn Skipper, ESPN’s executive vicepresident for content. “We’re gonnasurround consumers with media.We’re not gonna let them cut us offand move away from our brand.” 6

Such bold talk has become com-monplace, but television types nonethe-

less remain nervous. After all, there’sno reliable way yet to measure howmany people have watched an episodeof a program recorded by TiVo — orplayed on an iPod, both of which allowthe viewer to easily fast-forward pastthe commercials. That makes it diffi-cult for advertisers to feel confident thatthe networks have delivered thepromised number of viewers. Andthat’s a serious issue, because adver-tising is by far the industry’s leadingsource of revenue.

“The marketing community issomewhat dazzled and confused rightnow,” Bob Liodice, president of theAssociation of National Advertisers, saidduring a discussion on the future oftelevision in January 2007 in Brook-lyn, N.Y. “All the media are shifting,and advertisers are not certain aboutwhich ones are working.”

TV and ad executives may soundoptimistic when they gamely predictthat the new platforms will only cre-ate additional opportunities for adver-tisers, but even more neutral observerssay predictions about the demise oftraditional television will turn out tobe misguided.

“We’re in a moment in time whenmedia power operates top down fromcorporate boardrooms and bottom upfrom teenagers’ bedrooms,” says HenryJenkins, director of the comparativemedia-studies program at the Massa-chusetts Institute of Technology.

And while there clearly will be nodecrease in media — or media choic-es — in the foreseeable future, the ul-timate effect the proliferation of newforms of content and distribution mod-els will have on TV viewing is as yetunknown. “If anyone tells you whatthe television business is going to looklike a decade out,” said Dick Wolf,creator of the “Law & Order” fran-chise, “they are on drugs.” 7

As television continues to evolveand change, here are some of thequestions people in the industry areasking:

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

Most TV Households Have Cable or Satellite

Approximately 85 percent of American households with television are cable or satellite subscribers. Around one-third have high-definition sets, but only one-in-six owns a digital video recorder.

Source: ABC Television

TV Households in United States

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Own adigital video

recorder

Own ahigh-definition

set

No cableor satellite

Subscribe tocable andsatellite

Total

(in millions)

112 95

17

34

19

Feb. 16, 2007 149Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Will the Internet kill television?No one doubts that technology is

rapidly changing the television land-scape. But many question whether thenew ways to watch video content re-ally threaten traditional television.

“There is so much competition forthe time people spend in front of ascreen,” said Daniel Franklin, execu-tive editor of The Economist. “The In-ternet has behaved like a serial killer.First, the print media suffered, andthen the music industry suffered. Per-haps television is next.” 8

Besides making a surfeit of ama-teur videos universally available, theInternet now provides increased ac-cess to professional content. And thanksto its virtually unlimited storage ca-pacity and flexibility, the Web offersbetter access to certain types of videoprogramming than normal television.

Take sports, for instance. Subscribersto MLB.tv can watch 2,500 baseballgames a year and have up to sixgames showing on their screens atany given time. The site will evensend subscribers personalized alertswhen pitchers or batters from theirFantasy or Rotisserie league teams areplaying in other games not displayedon their screens. *

“People tend to watch on TV,” saysMichelle Wu, chief executive officerof MediaZone, which offered Internet-based coverage of the Wimbledon ten-nis tournament last year. But becauseher service covered more than 300matches, “People can watch a lotmore and at a more convenient time.”

The Internet is supplanting tradi-tional TV in numerous other ways aswell. For instance, on July 2, 2005,more people worldwide watched the“Live 8” concerts (to fight poverty inAfrica) online than via TV. Netflix, theInternet-based DVD-rental company,

in January began offering a limited se-lection of movies and TV shows fordirect viewing over the Internet. Andthe wide availability of video on theInternet in general threatens to endthe traditional content monopoly en-joyed by broadcast stations withintheir particular markets.

For instance, relatively few peoplesat through the entire Golden Globestelecast this year, writes columnist An-drew Sullivan. “The next day, how-ever, many downloaded clips of themore embarrassing acceptance speech-es or the more touching moments. It’smore efficient.” 9

What’s more, those who dependon the Internet for video are nolonger limited to watching on theircomputers. Apple announced in Jan-uary that it would soon release a de-vice, called Apple TV, which willwirelessly move video from the In-ternet onto regular TV sets. Othercompanies, such as Sony, Microsoft

and Sling Media, are working on com-parable tools.

“The consumer demand that hascurrently and historically been servedby broadcast television is increasing-ly being served in other ways by tech-nologies that have more capacity andpermit a much more diverse menuof choices,” says Bruce M. Owen, aStanford University economist and au-thor of The Internet Challenge to Tele-vision. “As a result, the former medi-um is shrinking.”

Those in the television industry aregrowing more confident about theirability to meet the Internet challenge,because they own the content thatpeople most want to watch, despitethe current fad of watching amateurvideos on YouTube and other sites.And television presents content in themost watchable format: high defini-tion, which offers a picture quality un-equaled on computer screens.

A Third of Watchers View TV Shows Online

About one-third of regular TV viewers have watched a program on the Web (left), with most viewing a “streaming” program that they regularly watch on TV (middle). Only 10 percent of online viewers watch a program less on TV after viewing it on the Internet (right).

Not all percentages total 100 due to rounding.

Source: CBS Television City New Technology Focus Groups, December 2006

Have you ever watched a TV

program online?

How often do you watch the streamed

program on TV?

After watching a program online,

how much do you watch it on TV?

Yes34%No

66%

The Same

73%Usually

86%

Occasionally

5%Never

9%More16%

Less

10%

* Fantasy and Rotisserie leagues involve vir-tual teams in which players are drafted frommultiple teams but their scores depend onreal-life statistics. Continued on p. 151

150 CQ Researcher

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

A bout a year ago, Will Albino and Brian Giarrocco broughta video camera to Padua Academy, a college-prepara-tory school for girls in Wilmington, Del. Albino asked

students to sign a petition to end women’s suffrage, correctlyfiguring they would mistake the right to vote for “suffering.”

They edited the video footage of their prank down to threeminutes, posted it on the Internet, and instantly had a hit.

“You hardly need a modicum of talent to create a reallyentertaining video,” says Todd Herman, online video strategistfor Microsoft. “That clip in one day sucked 8 million minutesout of people’s lives.”

Video is becoming about as big apresence on the Web as search en-gines, turning amateurs into produc-ers, and in some cases, journalists. LastOctober, Google bought YouTube, theleading video-sharing site, for $1.65 bil-lion. Soon after, Time magazine named“You,” as in YouTube, its “person ofthe year.” A recent survey found that38 percent of Americans wanted tocreate or share content online. 1

Clearly, the days when Hollywoodproduced most video entertainmentare ending. But what does it meanfor everyone in the world to be apotential producer?

A few clips, such as “Evolution of Dance,” Justin Laipply’ssix-minute compression of the last 50 years of steps, have be-come hugely popular. Laipply’s clip has been streamed morethan 40 million times. Like most blogs, though, most postedvideos get little or no attention. Few people have any real in-terest in dull footage of cats playing piano. 2

“The barrier to entry” — the once-formidable cost of shoot-ing and editing footage — “has almost disappeared,” says Jef-frey Cole, director of the University of Southern California’sCenter for the Digital Future. “But what’s still in short supply,and always will rise to the top, is good ideas.”

Some of those possessed of both camcorders and talent aregetting serious offers. Studios and talent agencies are activelyscouting and hiring online talent — and sometimes gettingturned down. “Hollywood tried to court us,” said Kent Nichols,one of the producers of the popular “Ask a Ninja” online se-ries, “and we’re like, ‘What are you talking about? We alreadyhave an established fan base.’ ” 3

In addition to serving as a possible farm team for Holly-wood, the world of Internet films is opening up productionpossibilities for professionals. All the TV networks and othercontent creators are thinking hard about producing shorter filmsfor distribution over Web sites and cell phones.

Merely cutting longer programs or 30-second ads doesn’t al-ways work, but the approach pioneered by successful Internetfilms — great concepts that are instantly understandable —provides a perfect template.

“It’s an opportunity for bigger companies to present materialto an audience where the stakes are not so high,” says Sue Rynn,vice president for emerging technologies at Turner Broadcasting.“You can migrate successful ideas from some of these niche op-portunities into the more traditional space” of broadcast television.

If video entertainment continues to be an area of experimentand uncertainty, it’s clear that home-grownvideo information is having a big impact.Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., andBarack Obama, D-Ill., made their initialpresidential campaign announcements onvideos they posted on Web sites. Theyhad clearly learned lessons from the pathstaken by “viral videos,” watching theirmessages rapidly spread via e-mail as wellas replays on traditional media outlets.

In addition, having millions of eyewit-nesses capable of capturing what they seeon video is changing the nature of newscoverage and events. Ordinary people haveshot some of the most compelling newsfootage in recent months, from the famed“Macaca” video of then-Sen. George Allen,

R-Va., insulting a dark-skinned volunteer for his opponent’s cam-paign, to the cell phone footage of comedian Michael Richardsslinging racial slurs in a nightclub. The careers of Allen andRichards were brought to a halt in ways that would never havehappened before YouTube.

Citizen journalists are now regularly sending footage to Websites such as Scoopt and NowPublic. From the 2005 Londonsubway bombings to last year’s crash of Yankee pitcher CoryLidle’s plane into a Manhattan apartment building, images shotby amateurs dominate news coverage of some events.

“In 1991, when a bystander videotaped the beating of RodneyKing in Los Angeles, the incident was almost unbelievable — notthe violence but the recording of it,” writes media critic JamesPoniewozik in Time. Today, incidents such as the Richards melt-down “are wearing away the distinction between amateur andprofessional photojournalists.” 4

1 Bob Garfield, “YouTube vs. Boob Tube,” Wired, December 2006.2 For background, see Kenneth Jost and Melissa J. Hipolit, “Blog Explosion,”CQ Researcher, June 9, 2006, pp. 505-528.3 Matthew Klam, “The Online Auteurs,” The New York Times Magazine, Nov.12, 2006, p. 83.4 James Poniewozik, “The Beast With a Billion Eyes,” Time, Dec. 25, 2006-Jan. 1, 2007, p. 63.

Home-Grown Videos Open New FrontiersAnybody can be a producer — or a journalist

The producers of the popular Ask a Ninjaonline series were courted by Hollywood.

Court

esy

Ask

AN

inja

.com

Feb. 16, 2007 151Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

In fact, much of themost popular contenton Internet video sitescomes from traditionaltelevision sources. “Somuch of YouTube con-tent is still based on re-purposing traditional net-work programming oraccess to old program-ming,” says Syracuse Uni-versity’s Thompson.

So, rather than tele-vision being swallowedby the Internet, thingsmay be going the otherway around, says ChrisPizzurro, vice presidentof digital and newmedia advertising salesand marketing for Turn-er Entertainment. Com-puters and iPods thatplay video are becom-ing, in effect, TV sets.“The TV is actually grow-ing to other devices,” hesays. “It’s because of theprogramming.”

In addition, pro-gramming is beginningto migrate from theWeb to traditional TVoutlets. NBC broadcastsa program based on thepopular iVillage site forwomen, while Warner Brothers just madea deal with Fox to distribute a televi-sion version of its even more popularentertainment Web site, TMZ.com.

The networks and production com-panies are negotiating with YouTube,Yahoo and other Internet companies toshow content or at least excerpts oftheir programs. “Everything is gearedtoward more individualized consump-tion,” said comedian Jon Stewart, hostof Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show.”“Getting it off the Internet is no differ-ent than getting it off TV.” 10 Stewart’sprogram has been among the most-

watched shows, in clip form, on theInternet.

But the networks are jealously guard-ing control of their copyrighted mate-rial. On Feb. 2, the media conglom-erate Viacom — which owns the MTVand Nickelodeon networks — de-manded that YouTube remove 100,000clips of Viacom content from its site,including “The Daily Show.” In addi-tion, Paramount and 20th Century Foxeach recently subpoenaed YouTube,forcing the site to disclose the identi-ties of users who had uploaded copy-righted material. Other video-sharing

sites have been targets oflitigation as well.

Still, given the flow of con-tent between television andcomputers — and the emer-gence of devices to expeditethat flow — it appears like-ly that these media will con-tinue to merge, with peoplewatching TV programmingvia computers and Web sitesshowing ever more video.

But that doesn’t meanTV will disappear. “Therewill always be a marketfor consumers who wantto watch television in thetraditional way, in theirliving room at a particulartime,” says Brian Dietz, vicepresident for communica-tions at the National Cable& Telecommunications As-sociation. “The vast ma-jority of the content thatpeople want is availablethrough the traditional tele-vision-viewing service.”

Will television remain aviable medium for ad-vertisers?

Many people in the tele-vision industry are wonder-ing whether their longstand-ing approach — aggregatingmany viewers to watch a

particular show and selling their atten-tion to advertisers — is sustainable.

“That sort of grand bargain — we’llshow you the program if you watchthe advertising — is breaking down,”said The Economist’s Franklin.

While television’s venerable para-digm may not have broken downcompletely, it clearly is under pres-sure due to the changing nature andfragmentation of the audience. View-ers, especially younger ones, are in-creasingly willing to migrate to newplatforms and sources — often allow-ing the user to bypass commercials —

Continued from p. 149

Most homemade videos posted on the Web get little attention, but “Evolution of Dance,” created by 30-year-old Cleveland

comedian Justin Laipply, became a global sensation. The hilarious six-minute compression of the last

50 years of dance steps has been streamed on YouTube more than 40 million times.

Court

esy

YouTube

152 CQ Researcher

in pursuit of entertainment and infor-mation.

New technologies and sources havebeen chipping away at the broadcastnetworks’ monopoly since the adventof cable. With the explosion of cablechannels over the last 30 years, net-works today are down to about 42 per-cent of the viewing audience comparedto 80 percent in the 1970s. 11 Today’smost popular network shows are luckyto draw half the audience enjoyed by’70s-era TV hits.

During the 1960s, an advertiser couldreach 80 percent of adult Americanwomen by simply buying a prime-time spot on all three networks; todayreaching the same group would re-quire advertising on 100 differentchannels. 12 The audience is fractur-ing even more with the advent of newvideo devices.

“Advertising is suffering becauseof the sheer amount of it, the lackof innovation within traditional ad-vertising formats and the power thatmedia fragmentation and technologygive to consumers to tune out the

noise,” writes Tom Himpe, author ofAdvertising Is Dead: Long Live Ad-vertising. 13

For a couple of years now, adver-tisers have worried that more viewerswill use TiVos and other DVRs to skippast their messages. A Ball State Uni-versity study last year found that view-ers do not watch commercials all theway through 59 percent of the time,either because of impatient channelsurfing, bathroom breaks or becausethey have TiVos or other DVRs. 14

“Only a small percentage of the au-dience is there during the commercial,”says Jeffrey Cole, director of the Cen-ter for the Digital Future at the Univer-sity of Southern California’s AnnenbergSchool. “It’s not the Internet, it’s thebathroom and the remote control.”

However, the phenomenon natu-rally has networks nervous. They alsoworry about the difficulty of measur-ing the audience that is watching spe-cific episodes of shows on DVRs, iPods,Internet streams and other new plat-forms. “It’s something everybody inthe business is watching, both at the

network and affiliate level,” says Den-nis Wharton, executive vice presidentfor media relations at the National As-sociation of Broadcasters. “We recog-nize that the model has to evolve.”

But he remains optimistic — andwith reason. Despite the competitionfrom new media, viewership of tradi-tional television programming contin-ues to rise, and with it advertising rev-enues. Total TV advertising amountedto $47.2 billion during the first ninemonths of 2006 alone, according toTNS Media Intelligence — an increaseof 5.2 percent over the same periodthe previous year. 15

Still, networks and advertisers areexperimenting with myriad ways to getviewers to think about brands and prod-ucts. Some, for instance, are turning toproduct placement — paying to havetheir products appear as an embeddedpart of a show. Long common in movies,product placements pop up in manytelevision shows today, often withoutany subtlety. (See list, p. 157.)

Television executives are also tryingto “create a good environment for ad-vertising” on new platforms, says RickMandler, vice president of digital mediaadvertising at Disney/ABC Media Net-works. Several ABC programs are avail-able in their entirety on the company’sWeb site hours after they have aired ontelevision. They are presented with fewcommercial interruptions by a single spon-sor, but the sponsor’s logo appears abovethe program-viewing window through-out the entire show. Viewers can fastforward through the program itself, butthey can’t skip past the ads.

The ads run for the traditional 30 sec-onds but present more information thana traditional commercial. Viewers can clickon images showing the products beingadvertised, which will take them to thesponsor’s own Web site. These exam-ples illustrate a paradoxical point thatMandler makes. In an age of proliferat-ing video, advertisers need to think ofways of presenting their messages thatare not simply 30-second videos.

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

TV Network Web Sites Outdraw Amateur Sites

Far more people watched videos on TV network Web sites than on video-sharing sites like YouTube or MySpace, according to a survey conducted by CBS last fall.

Source: CBS Entertainment Panel, Fall 2006

Percentage Who Accessed:(in the past week)

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Ages 55+Ages 35-54Ages 18-34WomenMenAll

YouTube MySpace.com TV network Web site

13%

3%

42%

20%

4%

41%

8%

3%

43%

21%

6%

45%

10%

2%

42%

4%.4%

37%

Feb. 16, 2007 153Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Ad agencies have said,“ ‘OK, we’ll give you our30,’ ” Mandler says. “Andwe’ve said, ‘We don’twant your [traditional] 30.’We want you to createsomething that leveragesthe interactivity of theplatform.”

Interactive advertising,in which viewers navi-gate their way through avirtual marketplace, haslong been talked aboutbut is just now being triedon cable and satellitesystems. (It’s more com-mon in the United King-dom and other countries.)

But some televisionexecutives believe thereal future of TV adver-tising lies in its past. Inthe early days of themedium, shows werepresented in their entirety— and sometimes wereeven produced — bythe sponsors. That’s why,for instance, comedianMilton Berle’s show inthe ’40s and ’50s wasnot named for him but was called “Tex-aco Star Theater.” Something similarmay happen again, with a single spon-sor presenting a show, with fewer com-mercial interruptions, and presenting itnot only on network TV but also onevery device and Internet platform.

Something like that has already hap-pened with Ford, which has presentedtwo season premieres of “24” withoutcommercial interruption, running two-or three-minute ads at the start and fin-ish of the broadcasts. The carmakerfound that consumers had unusuallyhigh recall of those ads, despite the factthat they only appeared once. In ad-dition, star Kiefer Sutherland drove aFord Expedition as part of the show,while other Ford vehicles were woveninto the story. “Basically, we own the

show,” said an advertising executiveworking with the company. 16

Sponsors are also heavily integrat-ed into the most popular current TVshow, “American Idol,” which waspre-sold to sponsors before it won aspot in the Fox network lineup. Con-testants appear in little music videosextolling Ford, the judges are neverseen without Coke cups nearby, andmuch viewer voting is done usingAT&T’s text-messaging service. AT&TWireless reported that about a thirdof those voters had never sent a textmessage before. “Our venture withFox has done more to educate thepublic and get people texting thanany marketing activity in this coun-try to date,” said a companyspokesman. 17

Are scripted TV showsobsolete?

New media have breathednew life into some networkseries. Fox began producingfresh episodes of its can-celed “Family Guy” cartoonseries after it sold well onDVD, and NBC has kept therelatively low-rated comedy“The Office” on the air inlarge part because it has soldwell, at $1.99 an episode, onApple’s iTunes online store.

“I’m not sure that we’dstill have the show on theair” without that boost, saidAngela Bromstead, presidentof NBC Universal Television.“When it went on iTunesand really started taking off,that gave us another way tosee the true potential otherthan just Nielsen Media Re-search.” 18

Typically, though, theshows that perform best inthe new platforms are thesame ones that are mostpopular in their regularbroadcast time slots. Thequestion facing television ex-

ecutives today is how many stragglersthey can afford to keep producing.

With the TV audience continuingto fracture, advertising revenues —even though they are rising — arenot keeping up with growing pro-duction costs. That leads some in theindustry to conclude that the heydayof scripted programming — hour-longdramas and 30-minute situation come-dies — may be over.

Scripted shows, after all, are muchmore expensive to produce than gameshows or reality programs. The aver-age scripted drama costs $2.6 millionper episode, while the popular “Dealor No Deal” game show, which NBCairs three times a week, only costsabout $1 million each, including theprize money. 19

The TiVo recording device helped revolutionize TV watching by allowing viewers to record their favorite shows

and skip over commercials.

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In October 2006, NBC announcedthat it would no longer offer script-ed shows during the first hour ofprime time most nights of the week.Many took it as a sign of things tocome. “It’s absolutely more bad newsfor me,” TV writer Tim O’Donnellsaid. “It just eliminates the shelfspace available for networks to puton what I pitch.” 20

Although NBC soon backed awayfrom that policy, the network — likeits sisters — is producing less script-ed programming than a few years ago.The networks have 22 hours of primetime to fill (three hours a night, fouron Sunday), and more and more ofthat time is filled either with game orreality shows or reruns of scriptedshows that aired earlier in the week.

Because of dwindling weekend au-diences, the networks have essential-ly ceased offering original program-ming on Saturday nights and are easingaway from broadcasting new materi-al on Fridays as well. “Writers have alot of reason to be anxious,” said DeanValentine, former head of Disney’s tele-vision unit. “The world they’ve beenliving in no longer exists.” 21

To make matters more uncertain,the contracts covering all the majorcreative guilds — writing, acting anddirecting — will expire over the next18 months. The writers’ guild contractexpires this summer, and there is alot of talk in Hollywood that a strikeis imminent. Writers and other creativetalent — who generally feel they didbadly during earlier rounds of nego-tiation over DVD revenues — noware eyeing a bigger share of the in-come generated by new media.

A Canadian guild went out on strikein January over similar issues. “We wantto be compensated fairly for use of ourwork on the Internet,” the union an-nounced. “We will not have our workput on the Internet for free.” 22

As part of their contingency plan-ning, the networks are developing morereality and game shows. All of the major

networks now have multiple prime-time game shows either in productionor development. “It’s really cheap, andit’s a quick way to build an audience,”says media consultant Phillip Swann,author of TV.com.

But even though the major net-works are producing fewer scriptedshows, more networks are producingscripted television than ever before.Cable networks such as HBO havestepped up production, as have sec-ond-tier broadcast networks such asTNT and The CW (created by CBS andWarner Brothers).

“Yes, CBS and ABC are showingfewer hours a day in scripted enter-tainment than a decade ago, but thereare more networks producing script-ed shows today,” says MIT’s Jenkins.“They’re just dispersed across morenetworks.”

What’s more, although sitcoms seemto have lost their luster, many hour-long scripted dramas are huge hits.“The success of ‘Lost’ and ‘DesperateHousewives’ and ‘Heroes’ and ‘UglyBetty’ suggests there is still an enor-mous economic value and public in-terest in scripted programs,” Jenkinssays.

In fact, many TV people think today’sscripted shows are as good or betterthan ever before. Under challenge fromnew media, networks have steppedup their game to produce or show-case programs that, in some cases,rival feature films in quality of pro-duction and entertainment value.

“Scripted shows to a certain extentare making a comeback,” says Whar-ton, of the National Association ofBroadcasters. “Just from the point ofview of the craft of television drama,today’s shows hold up as well as anyshows in the history of television.”

Moreover, while reality shows andgame shows have proven to be sur-prisingly durable since their emergencein prime time, even the most popularexamples have tended to enjoy fairlylimited shelf lives. (A notable excep-

tion is the hugely popular “AmericanIdol,” averaging about 36 million view-ers per episode; the show is in its sixthseason.) The limited runs make net-work executives nervous about aban-doning scripted shows, which — whenthey become hits — can run for years.

Thus, networks realize they mustmaintain a strong lineup of scriptedshows, which have longer half-lives thaneven the most popular reality shows— whether in syndication, on DVD oracross new platforms such as Internetstreaming or iTunes downloads.

The shows most often set for auto-matic, season-long recording on digitalvideo recorders are all scripted programs,including “Law & Order” and “CSI.”

“It’s a case of the rich getting richer,”says Mark Loughney, vice president ofsales and strategy research for ABCTV.“If people are passionate about yourprogramming, they will watch it andfind ways of watching it.”

BACKGROUNDEarly TV

T he history of television is repletewith examples of new devices

— color sets, high-definition sets,videotape recorders, flat screens —that burned through years and manyiterations before becoming popular.Television itself has been the mostimportant mass medium for so longthat it’s easy to forget that it, too, wasonce a newcomer threatening the fi-nancial health of older forms of com-munication.

Television distribution and produc-tion were built on the back of radio,with the radio networks — particularlyNBC and CBS — seamlessly dominat-ing the newer technology, using manyof the same programs and stars. 23

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

Continued on p. 156

Feb. 16, 2007 155Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Chronology1940s-1960sTelevision explodes in popularity.

1941Federal Communications Commis-sion (FCC) authorizes commercialTV operations to start the follow-ing year on 10 stations.

1948FCC freezes new TV licensing be-cause of flood of applications, ef-fectively preserving oligopoly ofNBC, CBS and their affiliates.

1949The first cable systems are createdin Oregon and Pennsylvania, allow-ing rural communities too far frombroadcast stations to receive pro-gramming.

1952FCC lifts its licensing freeze, ap-proving plan for 82 new channels(12 on VHF and 70 UHF), open-ing up the possibility of hundredsof new broadcast stations.

1965FCC begins regulating cable TV.

1970s-1990sNew competitors challengebroadcast network dominanceover home video content.

1975Home Box Office becomes thefirst cable network to use satellitesto send its signal to cable opera-tors, pioneering the concept of apay-TV channel.

1984Congress approves Cable Commu-nications Policy Act, deregulatingcable rates and codifying the

FCC’s ban on telephone compa-nies operating cable systems with-in their service areas.

1988Cable penetration reaches half ofU.S. households, with 42.8 millionpeople subscribing to 8,500 cablesystems. . . . Congress allowscities to regulate cable systemsand home viewers to receive pro-gramming via satellite.

1992FCC permits local telephone com-panies to operate video-deliverysystems. . . . With cable rates risingsharply, Congress reregulates cableindustry — overriding a presidentialveto — in order to provide “in-creased consumer protection.”

1996For the first time in 62 years, Con-gress overhauls telecommunicationslaw in effort to increase competitionfor new broadcasting, cable andother video services. Critics say thenew law is a failure.

1997DVD players are introduced in theU.S. market.

1999TiVo machines (digital videorecorders) are released to thepublic, giving television viewersan easy way to record, store andplay back their favorite shows.

2000s The video audi-ence continues to fragment asthe Internet opens up new de-livery systems and promotesuser-generated content.

2002For the first time, cable networks

combined draw more viewersthan broadcast networks. . . .Major broadcasters lose a record30 percent of their viewers inthe summer.

2005More people watch the July 2“Live 8” charity concerts onlinethan on TV. . . . On Oct. 12 Dis-ney and Apple announce pact tosell TV episodes for downloadingand replaying on video iPods. . . .On Nov. 23, the video-swappingWeb site BitTorrent agrees to re-move links to unlicensed copiesof Hollywood films.

2006Sen. George Allen, R-Va., is cap-tured on tape on Aug. 11 callinga young man of Indian descent“Macaca”; footage is quickly up-loaded onto YouTube and helpsto doom Allen’s re-election. . . .On Oct. 9, Google buys YouTubefor $1.65 billion. . . . NBC Univer-sal announces it will end mostscripted programming during thefirst hour of prime time and cut700 jobs, applying savings to digi-tal-media investment. It later re-considers the decision. . . . OnDec. 20, the FCC limits local gov-ernments’ ability to regulate videoservices.

2007Apple announces on Jan. 9 it willsoon release Apple TV, a deviceto store digital video and transferit wirelessly from computers to TVsets. . . . On Feb. 2, Viacom de-mands that YouTube remove morethan 100,000 clips of its contentfrom the video-sharing site.

Feb. 17, 2009All local TV stations must switchfrom analog to digital broadcast-ing, freeing up the analog spec-trum for emergency use.

156 CQ Researcher

The concept of sending images overlong distances had been discussed fordecades prior to the advent of regu-

lar television broadcasting. In the 1870s,American inventor Thomas Edisoncoined the term “telephonescope” todescribe the process of converting light

and shade into electrical signals thatcould be transmitted wirelessly. 24 Acrude color system was demonstratedas early as 1928. 25

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

Continued from p. 154

Several years ago, an ad showed a young man, TV re-mote control in hand, saying, “You’ve got 3 seconds. Im-press me.” 1

It was meant to underscore the impatience of habitual chan-nel surfers. But what’s striking about the ad today is how fo-cused the youth looks. He’s only holding a remote control.Where is his iPod, his cell phone and his laptop?

“This is the M Generation,” says Ian Rowe, vice presidentof strategic partnerships and public affairs for MTV Networks.“They want all media all the time.”

Cell phones and computers seem to encourage media multi-tasking, Today’s young people watch TV with a computer ontheir laps and a cell phone by their side, checking their Face-book pages, monitoring eBay auctions, playing fantasy footballor video games, sending text messages and phoning theirfriends. And the young — who grew up using computers froman early age — are more likely than adults to embrace newermedia devices and technology.

According to a Kaiser Family Foundation study released inDecember 2006, anywhere from a quarter to a third of 7th-to-12th-graders say they multitask “most of the time.” A majorityof kids multitask some of the time while fewer than 20 per-cent say they never do. 2

While today’s teens and “tweens” absorb more media than everand often are interacting with more than one medium at a time,how that affects their attention spans and their ability to learn andretain what they’ve learned — or whether they will keep up suchdistractible habits as adults — are all debatable. While multitask-ing among the young has become a field of serious academicstudy, most of the basic questions are unanswered.

“One of the great myths is that the 16- or 18-year-old doingsix things at once will still be consuming their media that waywhen they’re 30,” says Phillip Swann, president of TV PredictionsInc., a consulting firm in North Beach, Md., outside Washington.

“Are we going to reach the point in our culture where peo-ple have a hard time listening to a two-and-a-half-minute popsong without channel surfing?” asked New York-based composerR. Luke DuBois. “I see people do that on their iPods all thetime. They’ll listen to songs only through the first chorus, andthen they’ll switch to another song.” 3

That kind of behavior is bad news for brain development,says Jordan Grafman, chief of the cognitive neuroscience sec-tion at the National Institutes of Health. He argues that the in-ability to focus is a modern version of a primitive response of

the brain’s frontal lobe to be attracted to novel stimuli.Some studies suggest multitaskers don’t retain as much of

what they learn as they would when they are more focused.Divided attention “doesn’t allow you to do any deep deliber-ation,” Grafman says. “If you have to invent something, if youhave to design something new, if you have to have a differ-ent take on an issue, there is no way you are going to beable to do that effectively if you are multitasking.”

But research also suggests that young people who havegrown up in a media-saturated age “can toggle back and forthbetween things better than those who are older,” says LeeRainie, director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project.“If you’re motivated, you can learn a lot more than you usedto, because it’s so much easier.”

Another school of thought holds that the skills promotedby the convergence of new media — including creativity, peer-to-peer learning and, yes, multitasking — are becoming nec-essary for success in the modern world. The MacArthur Foun-dation announced in October 2006 it will devote $50 millionover five years to the study of digital media and learning.

Henry Jenkins, a media studies professor at MIT who is work-ing with the foundation, scoffs at those who think multitasking isa bad habit that will be shed with age. “We all live in a worldwhere multitasking is an essential skill,” he says. Given the currentbombardment of media, “If we can’t shift our attention from onepiece of information to another, we really will cease to function.”

One thing appears to be certain. Despite the way today’syoung people flock to the latest gadgets and features, includingFacebook and MySpace, their primary loyalty is to television. Theaverage young person watches nearly four hours of TV a day— compared to 49 minutes playing video games — and is morelikely to give television his or her undivided attention rather thanany other media device, according to the Kaiser study. 4

“Television still completely dominates kids’ time with mediaand is eight times more likely to be a primary activity than asecondary activity,” meaning their main focus will be on theTV set rather than on the cell phone or computer, says UllaG. Foehr, author of the Kaiser study. “So anyone who thinksTV is becoming irrelevant should think again.”

1 Henry Jenkins, Convergence Culture (2006), p. 64.2 Ulla G. Foehr, “Media Multitasking Among American Youth,” Kaiser FamilyFoundation, December 2006, p. 7.3 Quoted on “Studio 360,” Public Radio International, Jan. 26, 2007.4 Foehr, op. cit., p. 8.

Teens’ Media Multitasking Raises QuestionsDo they learn? Retain what they learn?

Feb. 16, 2007 157Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Television grew rapidly after WorldWar II, which had interrupted its com-mercial development. In 1946, there werejust two TV networks (NBC and CBS)providing 11 hours of programming toa handful of stations that could be watchedon one of the 10,000 TV sets then inuse. In 1950, four networks (includingABC and DuMont) were sending out 90hours of weekly programming to about100 stations serving 10.5 million sets. Bythe end of the 1950s, 87 percent of U.S.households had a television. 26 Nation-al advertisers migrated to the new medi-um from both radio and from gener-al-interest magazines (The SaturdayEvening Post and Collier’s started to fold)and began cutting into the audience forcomic books and movies.

Between 1949 until 1952, the FCCprotected the oligopoly NBC and CBShad enjoyed in radio by freezing newlicenses for broadcasters, essentiallymaking wider competition within theTV industry difficult. The two net-works enjoyed complete dominion over80 percent of the 60-odd TV marketsuntil 1962, when Congress mandatedthat all new sets be able to receiveboth UHF and VHF signals, allowingmore competition.

ABC, which had struggled (it hadbeen created in 1943 after a govern-ment antitrust suit forced NBC to di-vest itself of its Blue Network, as ABCwas called at the time), came into itsown during the 1960s, building anaudience through heavy coverage ofweekend sports. Fox pursued a similarniche strategy in the 1980s by ap-pealing to viewers ages 18-34 and bybroadcasting sports.

For most of their history, however,broadcasters tried to appeal to as widean audience as possible, pursuing thedoctrine of “least objectionable pro-gramming” — the belief that out of threechoices, viewers will select the one theyare least likely to hate. That style of pro-gramming fell out of favor by the 1980s,however, when cable began providingviewers with many more options.

Cable and Video

C able television had been around,in embryonic form, since the late

1940s. Initially, it evolved as a way tobring television to remote areas thatwere too far away from the stationsto receive broadcast signals. In 1949,E. L. Parson, a radio-station owner inAstoria, Ore., erected an antenna sys-tem to receive the signal of a TV sta-tion in Seattle, 125 miles away, whichhe then shared with 25 “subscribingneighbors” via a network of wires. 27

Most early cable systems were similarmom-and-pop operations; by 1957,there were 500 such systems, averag-ing about 700 subscribers each. 28 Afew years later, a San Diego cable op-erator decided to bring in TV stationsfrom Los Angeles. For the first time,cable service was being offered in citiesalready served by three or morebroadcast stations.

In 1975, Home Box Office (HBO)became the first cable network to usesatellites to transmit programs to cableoperators, demonstrating the viabilityof offering a premium channel thatsubscribers would pay extra to receive.It soon attracted competitors, such asShowtime. Cable revenues grew from$900 million in 1976 to $12.8 billionin 1988 — $3 billion of that from so-called pay-TV channels alone. 29

Congress had deregulated the cablebusiness in 1984 to offer it protectionsfrom certain local government man-dates (it would re-regulate the indus-try in 1992). By 1988, half of U.S.households with television were wiredfor cable. That year, Congress passedlegislation to permit continued trans-mission of programming to owners ofhome satellite dishes. 30

The year 1988 was also a “tippingpoint” for sales of videocassetterecorders (VCRs) — nearly 12 million inthe United States alone. Ampex had

TV Advertising Changes With the Times

Changes in television technology — notably the development of devices that allow viewers to bypass commercials — have led some companies to abandon traditional commercials (left) and instead to pay producers to write their products into the show itself (right).

Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus, 2006

Top 10 TraditionalTV Advertisers

(in $ billions spent)

Top 10 ProductPlacement Brands(by most appearances)

Source: Nielsen Product Placement, 2006

1. Procter & Gamble $2.9

2. General Motors 2.0

3. AT&T 1.4

4. Ford 1.4

5. DaimlerChrysler 1.3

6. Time Warner 1.2

7. Verizon Communications 1.1

8. Toyota 1.1

9. Altria Group 1.0

10. Walt Disney 1.0

1. Coca-Cola

2. Chef Revival Apparel

3. Nike Apparel

4. 24 Hour Fitness

5. Chicago Bears

6. Cingular Wireless

7. Starter

8. Dell

9. SLS Electronic Equipment Speakers

10. Nike Footwear

158 CQ Researcher

introduced a videotape machine as earlyas 1957 and had not been able to keepup with consumer demand — despitea hefty $50,000 price tag. In 1976, Sonyintroduced its Betamax machines in theUnited States. Prices had come down abit — to $1,295 for the machine and$15 for one-hour cassettes. Despite itsheadstart in the marketplace and superi-or picture quality, however, Sony lostthe “format war” to VHS.

Believing that VCRs would lead topiracy and cut into profits, productioncompanies such as Universal and Dis-ney lobbied Congress and filed law-suits, claiming their copyrights werebeing violated.

Eventually, VHS would lose its pre-eminence to DVD players, which firstbecame available in the U.S. market in1997. DVD sales and rentals quickly be-came major sources of profit for televi-sion and movie production companies.

Regulating Competition

B y the 1990s, cable systems hadattracted a new competitor: the

telephone industry, which began clam-oring to provide video services to itscustomers. The FCC had banned tele-phone companies from owning cablesystems in 1970 out of fear that “telcos”would refuse to let a competing cablesystem use their telephone poles tohang its wires. Congress effectivelycodified its ban as part of the 1984cable deregulation act, aiming to pre-vent discrimination against cable sys-tems and to promote diversity in mediaownership.

By the late 1980s, however, Wash-ington policymakers were beginningto advocate allowing telephone com-panies to provide cable services. TheFCC permitted phone companies toengage in video programming andrecommended that Congress repealthe cross-ownership ban.

Impatient with the lack of action inCongress, Bell Atlantic asked a federal

judge to rule that the ban violated theFirst Amendment. A judge so ruled in1993, prompting several other telcosto seek legal redress. By late 1994, thelegal barriers to competition betweentelcos and cable had fallen.

In 1996, Congress systematically re-vamped telecommunications law forthe first time in 62 years. The Telecom-munications Act of 1996 was intend-ed to open up new delivery systemsfor both television and telephone toincreased competition, lifting mostbarriers to media ownership. Whilelimiting companies and individuals fromowning TV stations that reached morethan 35 percent of the national audi-ence, the act abolished many of thecross-market barriers that had prohib-ited dominant players from one com-munications industry, such as tele-

phone, from providing services in otherareas, such as cable. 31

The law’s general approach was toreplace government regulation with com-petition as the chief way of assuring thattelecommunications services are deliveredto customers cheaply and efficiently. Itimposed new regulations to help openmarkets and equalize the burden oncompetitors, but it also lifted many pricecontrols and other regulations — in somecases before local monopolies are bro-ken. The law eliminated the provisionof the 1984 cable act that barred localphone companies from entering the cable-TV market in their service areas, whileeasing or eliminating the price controlson cable companies.

The law allowed competition, butit did not effectively foster it. Telcosstill lag well behind cable companiesin providing multichannel video ser-vices to consumers.

“In truth, the bill promised theworst of both worlds: More concen-trated ownership over communica-tions with less possibility for regula-tion in the public interest,” wrote RobertW. McChesney, a University of Illinoiscommunications professor, in his 2004book The Problem of the Media. “Ac-cordingly, both the cable and telecom-munication industries have become sig-nificantly more concentrated since 1996,and customer complaints about lousyservice have hit all-time highs. Cableindustry rates for consumers have alsoshot up, increasing some 50 percentbetween 1996 and 2003.” 32

CURRENTSITUATION

Policy Debates

R egulation typically lags behindtechnological changes, and that is

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

Most Adults Have Digital TV, Broadband

About two-thirds of U.S. adults have digital televisions and/or high-speed (broadband) Internet connections. Only 35 percent have analog TVs and no broadband or cable connections.

Sources: Mediamark Research Inc. and CBS Corp.

Percentage of Adults with Digital TV, Broadband

(spring 2006)

Digital TV,no broadband

24%

Digital TV plusbroadband

25% Broadband,No digital

TV

Analog TV,no broadband

35%

16%

Feb. 16, 2007 159Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

likely to remain the casefor television, since itappears unlikely thatthe 110th Congress willaddress the changinglandscape of televisionand telecommunica-tions policy in a com-prehensive way.

The House passed amajor telecom bill in2006 that would havemade it easier for phonecompanies to enter thevideo business, but theSenate never complet-ed its version. 33 Sincethen the political land-scape on Capitol Hillhas changed dramati-cally, with Democratstaking control of bothchambers in the 2006congressional elections.While Congress maytake up some narrowissues, “the consensusis that there’s won’t bea comprehensive bill,”says James Brad Ram-say, general counselfor the National Asso-ciation of RegulatoryUtility Commissioners.

Meanwhile, the issuesthat dominated thetelecommunications de-bate last year have mi-grated to the FederalCommunications Commission (FCC) andthe states. For instance, Congresssought to streamline existing rules thatrequire video operators — anyone of-fering video through cable, broadbandor fiber-optic phone lines — to nego-tiate franchising deals with individualcities and towns. The big phone com-panies, such as AT&T and Verizon, whichare spending billions on new fiber-opticnetworks to provide broadband videoservices, say current franchise process-es slow the rollout of such services and

help preserve a competitive advantagefor cable companies.

The FCC on Dec. 20 issued newguidelines that require municipalitiesto respond to TV franchise requestsfrom phone companies within 90days. The agency also restricted thelimits local governments can place onnew video service “build-outs,” as wellas the franchise fees they can charge.Congress is expected to review theguidelines, which local governmentshave roundly criticized.

Municipalities say theyneed discretion to deter-mine which companieswould best use public rightsof way while digging uproads to install their cablesand building their infra-structure, since many ven-dors are competing for thesame valuable space. Manycities also want to requirenew entrants to guaranteeaccess to low-income or un-derserved areas.

“We want to be able tonegotiate these things, not tohave them taken off thetable by regulatory frame-work,” says Carolyn Cole-man, director of federal re-lations for the National Leagueof Cities.

Telephone companieshave also brought their caseto numerous states. Since2005, nine states have stream-lined local franchise rules.The laws vary, but in essencethe states have made it eas-ier for the telephone com-panies to get their franchis-es and override the protestsof local governments.

Not surprisingly, cablecompanies aren’t happyabout these new arrange-ments. “It’s not what youthink of as a new entrantneeding regulatory protec-

tion,” says Rick Cimerman, vice pres-ident for state government affairs atthe National Cable & Telecommuni-cations Association. “AT&T alone dwarfsthe entire cable industry.”

The telephone companies’ hope ofgetting a national franchise bill thatwould allow them to compete on fa-vorable terms with cable founderedon their own objections — shared bythe cable industry — to a provisionknown as “net neutrality.” They evenobject to the term, saying that it really

Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduces the new iPhone at Macworld onJan. 9, 2007 in San Francisco. The revolutionary device combines

a mobile phone and widescreen iPod with touch controls and an Internet communications device with the ability to use e-mail

and Web browsing. It starts shipping in the U.S. in June 2007.

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represents governmental intrusion intothe telecommunications business.

Net neutrality bills, which continueto be introduced both in Congress andin a handful of states, would blockInternet service providers (ISPs) fromcharging content providers for priori-ty access. 34 Some companies — in-cluding some television companies —want to be able to pay extra to makesure their data can get through quick-ly and not be slowed by heavy In-ternet traffic (which can cause videostreams to appear jerky). Proponentsof the measure say net-neutrality poli-cies would ensure equal access to In-ternet distribution, preventing a largecompany from buying up bandwidthand thus blocking or slowing accessfor competitors or small sites that can’tafford to pay for premium treatment.

Another debate likely to rage inWashington this year involves media-ownership rules. In the 1996 Telecom-munications Act, Congress barred mediacompanies or individuals from own-ing television stations serving morethan 35 percent of the U.S. popula-

tion and required the FCC to reviewmedia-ownership rules every fouryears. In 2003, the commission votedto ease the restrictions and allowstation owners to reach a combined45 percent of the national audience.A federal appeals court then struckdown the deregulation as “arbitraryand capricious.” 35

As the FCC undertakes its qua-drennial review in 2007, broadcastershope the agency will ease ownershiprules. Because the media landscapeis shifting so rapidly, traditional TVproviders cannot be handcuffed if theyare to remain competitive, arguesWharton of the National Associationof Broadcasters. “We have asked thegovernment to explore some modestchanges to some of the rules thatwould preserve and enhance free,over-the-air broadcasting,” he says,“such as rules that bar a newspaperowner from owning stations in thesame market, or partnering with an-other station in same market.”

FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin issympathetic to calls for deregulation

and has said he hopes to revisit thenewspaper-broadcast cross-ownershipban. But a strong backlash against the2003 deregulation has put pressure onMartin and other commissioners to bemore sensitive to public opinion.Moreover, Democrats in Congress willbe skeptical about attempts to easemedia-ownership rules, with HouseTelecommunications SubcommitteeChairman Edward J. Markey, D-Mass.,particularly vocal about the issue. (See“At Issue,” p. 161.)

“The paradox is that you’ll have somepeople telling you there are fewer andfewer companies owning more andmore of the media, so there is reallyvery little access to diversity, yet otherpeople are telling you that we have aworld without gatekeepers, that any-one can post anything they want onthe Internet,” says Jenkins of MIT.

“Both of those statements are true.”

All-You-Can-Eat TV

O utside of the regulatory and pol-icy arena, technology appears to

be putting everything about the natureof television up for grabs. A mediumthat has long been primarily under-written by advertising is watching itsaudience crack and break into a millionpieces. Viewers accustomed to flippingthrough channels now are finding thattheir primary loyalty may be to specificprograms, which in turn may be de-livered to them through any numberof different media. And watching tele-vision, which has always been primar-ily a passive, relaxing activity, is be-coming more interactive, with moreviewers potentially engaging with con-tent — and trying to find it.

One of the major questions facingthe television industry today iswhether its traditional means of de-livery — networks of affiliated stations— can survive the changes.

Continued on p. 162

The Top 10 TV Programs

There’s something for almost everyone among the most popular regularly scheduled television shows, from amateur performers to medical and crime dramas to sports and suburban seductresses.

Source: Nielsen Media Research, 2006

1. American Idol — Tuesdays (Fox)

2. American Idol — Wednesdays (Fox)

3. Dancing with the Stars (ABC)

4. CSI (CBS)

5. Dancing with the Stars Results Show (ABC)

6. NBC Sunday Night Football (NBC)

7. CSI: Miami (CBS)

8. Desperate Housewives (ABC)

9. House (Fox)

10. Deal or No Deal — Mondays (NBC)

10. Without a Trace (CBS)

no

Feb. 16, 2007 161Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

At Issue:Should the government preserve limits on media ownership?Yes

yesREP. EDWARD J. MARKEY, D-MASS.CHAIRMAN, HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE ONTELECOMMUNICATIONS AND THE INTERNET

FROM KEYNOTE ADDRESS, NATIONAL CONFERENCEFOR MEDIA REFORM, JAN. 13, 2007

i t is often said that our system of democratic self-governmentrelies on an informed citizenry. Informed citizens need toknow enough to make decisions in a democracy. And they

need to know [not only] raw information but also context as wellas the history of issues.

Media ownership is a key tool utilized in this policy con-text. And that’s because diversity of ownership has historicallybeen used as a proxy for diversity of viewpoints and diversityof content. Simply put, therefore, elimination of ownershiplimits eradicates an important tool we have to help ensurethat the public has access to a wide array of viewpoints inlocal news and information.

In 2003, we were challenged. We were challenged by thedrastic and indiscriminate elimination of mass-media owner-ship rules proposed by the previous Federal CommunicationsCommission [FCC] under its former chairman. In response topressure from special political and corporate interests, theFCC, on a 3-to-2 vote, rammed through changes to mediaownership that would have eviscerated the public-interestprinciples of diversity and localism.

The FCC’s plan did not create more entertainment andinformation sources for consumers. Nor did it enhance theability of the broadcasting medium to meet the information-al and civic needs of the communities it serves. Instead, itthreatened to intensify control of information and opinionin entire cities and regions of the country. The aggregateeffect would have encouraged the rapid consolidation ofmass-media ownership in this country and the eliminationof diverse sources of opinion and expression.

The good news is that the challenge was answered. Peopletook notice, took action and went to court. Congress also re-sponded and enacted some limits, and the court shut downthe rest of the sweeping changes and sent the plan back tothe FCC. But it was only a temporary reprieve. Today, theFCC is embarked upon another round of analysis and is re-examining whether to change the media-ownership rules.

The communications revolution has the potential to changeour society. Unless we continue to revere localism and diver-sity, we risk encouraging a new round of “communicationscannibalism” in mass-media properties on both the nationaland local levels that would put real progress in bolstering mi-nority ownership of media even further away.No

BRUCE M. OWENDIRECTOR, PUBLIC POLICY PROGRAMSTANFORD UNIVERSITY

WRITTEN FOR CQ RESEARCHER, FEB. 15, 2007

d espite the activist hype about “media power,” thenumber of alternatives for viewers is increasing, notdecreasing. Economic competition among media for

viewers and advertisers is greater now than at any time in his-tory. So is economic competition among the wired and wirelesspipelines that carry content to the home.

Competition in the marketplace of ideas, one of the keysto democracy, is more robust than ever, thanks to the ubiqui-tous Internet. FCC ownership rules, which only apply to theold, regulated media, make it harder for the older media tocompete with the new. This will ultimately disadvantage thoseconsumers who still prefer the traditional technologies.

Antitrust laws protect consumers against mergers that reducecompetition. The way to tell if competition is threatened is toask whether consumers will end up with too few choices. Ad-vertisers already have many alternatives to regulated broadcastmedia, even without considering online advertising. TV viewersuse cable or satellite or DSL and online services, each with es-sentially unlimited channel capacity. These multi-channel mediacompete among themselves and with newer, wireless high-speed services such as EV-DO and Verizon’s BroadbandAccess.

Anyone who thinks media moguls are monolithic gate-keepers standing between freedom of speech and the publicshould consider how Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton recentlychose to announce her candidacy for the presidency: on herWeb site, with an online video. Other candidates did thesame. One reason: To bypass any “spin” imparted by tradi-tional media reporting. More generally, as the Federal ElectionCommission proclaimed last spring: “[T]he Internet’s near infi-nite capacity, diversity and low cost of publication and accesshas democratized the mass distribution of information, espe-cially in the political context. The result is the most accessiblemarketplace of ideas in history.”

Neither FCC rules nor new laws restricting media ownershipmake sense. We have perfectly good antitrust laws and en-forcers, including the courts, to deal with threats to economiccompetition in the advertising and video entertainment markets.

Catering to misinformed populist ideas is not a costless in-dulgence. Traditional media are trying to remain relevant in thenew media world. Some consumers would be inconveniencedby their premature demise. This is not the time to increase theircosts of operation by maintaining or even increasing regulatoryconstraints that make them less competitive.

162 CQ Researcher

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

“When we see that big box in theliving room, we think of channels,”says Andrew Kantor, a technology re-porter for the Roanoke Times andcolumnist for USAToday.com. “There’sno reason for television to be divid-ed by that, other than convention.”

It’s possible nowfor viewers to accesstheir favorite showswithout giving anythought to whatchannel it’s on. Itmight help them finda show like “Lost” onthe Internet if theyknow what networkpresents it, but theycertainly need nolonger know that it’sscheduled to be ontheir local Channel 5on Wednesdays at 10p.m. If they have aTiVo or DVR, theycan program it torecord “CSI” auto-matically by seriesname, not by chan-nel or broadcasttime.

“We don’t watch Fox, we watch‘24,’ ” says Kantor. “The only reasonto have channels today is to help usnavigate the content. Who cares if theshow is on Fox or CBS or Jimmy’sFunStuff channel?”

Some niche networks are consid-ering becoming broadband channels,allowing viewers to watch their pro-gramming directly via the Internet with-out their even having a presence oncable or satellite systems. Companiessuch as Wal-Mart and Amazon arealso lining up to send content directlyto viewers. Access will expand evenfurther as new devices become avail-able that can send Internet content totelevision sets. Apple is expected torelease its Apple TV device this month,with major competitors putting out

their versions soon. Video game play-ers have already grown accustomedto switching seamlessly from gamesto live network video feeds on theirtelevisions.

But all the longstanding televisionservices — networks, local affiliatesand cable and satellite — have ad-

vantages that offer them hope of thriv-ing well into the future, assuming theycan adapt to changing circumstances.For instance, while viewers may soonbe able to use the Internet or othermeans to bypass local affiliate stations,it will take time for traditional view-ing habits to change. Local stations area familiar and easy way to find tele-vision shows, and they provide localnews, emergency and weather infor-mation that Internet providers do not.

As part of a 2005 budget bill, Con-gress set 2009 as the deadline for broad-casters to switch from analog to digitalbroadcasting. Lawmakers wanted bothto promote digital TV, which providesa crisper picture, and to free up broad-cast spectrum for wireless and emer-gency communications systems.

Although broadcasters opposed theimposition of a specific deadline, theynow say it provides them with a com-petitive advantage. The move to all-digital television broadcasting will en-able individual stations to send outmultiple signals, essentially providing mul-tiple channels. So, in addition to airing

network programs, the sta-tion can simultaneouslybroadcast news, weatherand sports coverage pro-duced in-house.

“TV networks havethe franchise contentpeople want to watch,”says CBS’ Poltrack. “Thelocal station is the bestway to get it.”

That remains true de-spite the present industryupheaval, Poltrack says,largely because of the ad-vent of high-definitiontelevision, which providesa much clearer picturethan standard television.Watching a televisionshow via Internet stream-ing cannot match thepicture quality offered byTV now that most prime

time shows are being produced usingHDTV technology.

“I can’t tell you how many peoplehave told me they’d rather watchgrass grow in HD than their favoriteshow in standard television,” saysABC’s Mandler.

And networks themselves maintainadvantages in the new age, he ar-gues. While content producers maytry to sell their products directly toviewers — bypassing the networksand other traditional middlemen —the costs of marketing individual showscan be prohibitive, he points out.While producer-to-consumer programscould become instant word-of-mouthhits just as low-budget videos get e-mailed to millions today, he concedes,they would be exceptional.

Continued from p. 160

Shows like ABC’s wildly popular “Ugly Betty,” starring America Ferrera(right), face new competition for viewers. With higher production costs

and a declining viewership, sitcoms and other scripted TV programs are being pushed aside by reality shows such as “American Idol.”

CQ

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Feb. 16, 2007 163Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Networks also own the rights todecades’ worth of old programming.While some people enjoy owningDVDs of their favorite shows, as video-on-demand services become morecommon more people will prefer todial up old episodes of “I Love Lucy”or “My Mother the Car” owned by thenetworks and their partners. Cable ser-vices such as Comcast already makehundreds of movies available to sub-scribers at any time “on demand.”

And as the viewingaudience continues tofragment, Mandler says,“the folks who canstitch together a nation-al audience and sell itto advertisers are thenetworks.” Even cableand satellite companies— and relatively newbroadband services of-fered by telephone com-panies — are too frag-mented to promise atruly national audience.

Nielsen Media Re-search, the leading TVaudience-measurementcompany, is working tofind new ways to mea-sure the fracturing au-dience. It will soon offerminute-by-minute rat-ings that also measuread and DVR playbackviewership, althoughsome in the TV indus-try are skeptical they candeliver this as quicklyas promised. The com-pany is also experi-menting with a 400-member video iPodviewership panel and is“moving rapidly” onmeasuring video viewership on theWeb, according to Scott Brown, a Nielsensenior vice president.

“If it’s measurable, advertisers willwant it,” says Jin Kang, an executive

producer with NDS, a digital videocompany. “As long as you can measureviewership, advertisers don’t really carehow they looked at it.”

When industry officials first beganto notice the fracturing of the TV au-dience, the changes in video deliv-ery technology and the growth ofuser-generated content, “There was acertain amount of panic in the room,”concedes Peter Olsen, senior vicepresident of national ad sales for A&E

Television Networks. “Now, there’smore enthusiasm. We feel like whatwe do well — which is produce greatcontent — consumers will continueto enjoy.”

OUTLOOKShifting Landscape

T he television industry today feelsa bit like the dot-com boom a

decade ago. There is endless exper-imentation, rapid technological change,

a host of start-ups and ascramble among estab-lished companies to formnew partnerships and adaptto a rapidly shifting land-scape. There will be plen-ty of false starts — and bigwins, like the sale ofYouTube to Google for$1.65 billion last October.

“The changes of thenext five years will dwarfthe changes of the last 50,”said Jeff Zucker, chief ex-ecutive of NBC Universal’stelevision group, as he an-nounced a restructuring ofthe company last fall.

But no one really knowswhat those changes willlook like. Viewers mayuse new devices to accessnearly any video contentthey want, and networksand cable companies maymake more and morecontent available “on de-mand.” Almost everyoneagrees that television andthe Internet will offer in-creasingly overlappingexperiences.

But all the new tech-nology involves, well, newtechnology. For now,

watching videos through the Internetremains more cumbersome thanwatching on traditional TV — whichalso delivers superior picture quality.And millions of people like watching

Time selected “You” — as in YouTube — as its 2006 Person of theYear, reflecting the growing popularity of user-generated

video content and the increasing participation of everyday citizens in the next Internet generation.

164 CQ Researcher

television by simply turning it on andwatching.

Some people predict that the bigmoney in future television will be insearch engines. “It’s great to be giventhe keys to the Library of Congress,but if there’s no card catalog, it’s notmuch use,” says Todd Herman, a new-media strategist for Microsoft.

For now, despite the advent of con-sumer-created video and the wide arrayof choices, most viewers are watch-ing more TV than ever and are usingnew devices and platforms to keepup with favorite shows by watchingat a more convenient time or when“nothing’s on.”

And networks and advertisers ap-pear increasingly confident that theywill be able to measure viewership,and advertisers hope they will be ableto more accurately target the right view-ers for messages about the appropriateproducts.

Meanwhile, interactive TV — talkedabout for years — is just taking rootin this country. Interactive TV allowsa viewer to make selections to “go”to different places on their set, similarto selecting the movie, special featuresor language features while watchinga DVD. Not too many people arechoosing to navigate through an ad-vertiser’s showplace on their televisionset, but enough are starting to do soto make it worthwhile.

But how will the splintering of view-ership affect the nation and its culture?

“Ultimately, the biggest story of the 21stcentury will be the fracturing of the20th-century audience,” says Thomp-son, of the Center for the Study ofPopular Television. “We spent the firsteight decades of the 20th century puttingtogether the biggest mass audience ofall time. You had virtually everybody— old and young, rich and poor —feeding from the same cultural troughat least a few hours a week, if not afew hours a day.”

Thompson doesn’t think it’s a co-incidence that the citizenry has be-come more divided politically at thesame time that its main source of pop-ular culture and information has becomemore splintered. NBC News anchorBrian Williams seems to agree. “It isnow possible — even common — togo about your day in America andconsume only what you wish to seeand hear,” he writes. 36

But others point out that the Inter-net has also made it easier for peopleof like-minded interests to find eachother and form communities.

And many viewers prefer to maketheir own entertainment choices, ratherthan relying on the programming judg-ments of network executives. “Thecommon culture of my youth is gonefor good . . . splintered beyond re-pair by the emergence of the Web-based technologies that so maxi-mized and facilitated culture choiceas to make the broad-based offeringsof the old mass media look bland

and unchallenging by comparison,”writes critic Terry Teachout. “For allthe nostalgia with which I look backon the days of the Top 40, the Book-of-the-Month Club and ‘The Ed Sulli-van Show,’ I prefer to make my owncultural decisions, and I welcome theease with which the new media permitme to do so.” 37

It’s an age of choice, and no oneis certain which formats viewers willultimately favor. But whether peopleare watching programs on demand,via the Internet or on their local station,it’s clear that Americans will continuewatching lots of television into theforeseeable future.

“If I had to describe the future ofTV in one word,” says Mike Bloxham,director of research at Ball State Uni-versity’s Center for Media Design, “itwould be ‘more.’ ”

Notes

1 Jennifer Mann, “Ads Mimic ‘Viral Videos,’ ”The Kansas City Star, Feb. 3, 2007, p. C1.2 Matthew Creamer, “John Doe Edges OutJeff Goodby,” Advertising Age, Jan. 7, 2007,p. S-4.3 Lev Grossman, “Person of the Year: You,”Time, Dec. 25, 2006-Jan. 1, 2007, p. 40.4 Gary Holmes, “Nielsen Media Research Re-ports Television’s Popularity Is Still Growing,”Nielsen Media Research, news release, Sept.21, 2006.5 For background, see Alan Greenblatt, “Futureof the Music Industry,” CQ Researcher, Nov. 21,2003, pp. 988-1012.6 Frank Rose, “ESPN Thinks Outside the Box,”Wired, September 2005, p. 113.7 Brian Steinberg, “ ‘Law & Order’ Boss DickWolf Ponders Future of TV Ads,” The WallStreet Journal, Oct. 18, 2006.8 “Forum With Michael Krasny,” KQED, Dec.16, 2006; available for streaming atwww.kqed.org/epArchive/R612131000.9 Andrew Sullivan, “Video Power: The PotentNew Political Force,” Sunday Times of London,Feb. 4, 2007, p. 4.

TELEVISION’S FUTURE

About the AuthorAlan Greenblatt is a staff writer at Governing magazine.He previously covered elections, agriculture and militaryspending for CQ Weekly, where he won the NationalPress Club’s Sandy Hume Award for political journalism.He graduated from San Francisco State University in 1986and received a master’s degree in English literature fromthe University of Virginia in 1988. His recent CQ Researcherreports include “The Partisan Divide” and “Media Bias.”

Feb. 16, 2007 165Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

10 Thomas Goetz, “Reinventing Television,”Wired, September 2005, p. 104.11 Kevin Downey, “Milestone: Cable WidensLead in 18-49s,” Medialife Magazine, April21, 2006.12 Henry Jenkins, Convergence Culture (2006),p. 66.13 Quoted in Lewis Lazare, “Changing Faceof Ads Examined,” Chicago Sun-Times, Dec.4, 2006, p. 63.14 Marc Ransford, “New Study Has Good andBad News for Television Advertising Indus-try,” press release, Ball State University, Sept.26, 2006, www.bsu.edu.15 Lisa Rockwell, “Web Sparks AdvertisingRevolution,” Austin American-Statesman, Dec.17, 2006, p. H1.16 Frank Rose, “The Fast-Forward, On-Demand,Network-Smashing Future of Television,” Wired,October 2003.17 Jenkins, op. cit., p. 59.18 Verne Gay, “How iTunes Saved ‘The Office,’” Newsday, Nov. 1, 2006, p. B21.19 Gary Levin, “Networks Have Eyes on thePrize,” USA Today, Dec. 18, 2006, p. 1D.20 Richard Verrier, “No Time for Making New‘Friends’ at NBC,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 7,2006, p. C1.21 Ibid.22 “Key Issues in ACTRA ’s Str ike,”www.actra.ca/actra/control/feature14.23 For background, see “Radio Developmentand Monopoly,” Editorial Research Reports,March 31, 1924; available at CQ ResearcherPlus Archive, http://library.cqpress.com.24 Andrew Crisell, A Study of Modern Television(2006), p. 17.25 For in-depth background on the develop-ment of television, see “Television,” EditorialResearch Reports, July 12, 1944, available atCQ Researcher Plus Archive, http://library.cq-press.com; and Andrew F. Inglis, Behind theTube (1990), p. 237.26 George Comstock and Erica Scharrar, Tele-vision: What’s On, Who’s Watching, andWhat It Means (1999), p. 6.27 Inglis, op. cit., p. 360.28 Ibid., p. 365.29 Ibid., p. 385.30 For background, see the following CQResearchers, available at CQ ResearcherPlus Archive: “Cable Television: The Com-ing Medium,” Sept. 9, 1970, “Television inthe Eighties,” May 9, 1980; “Cable TV’s Fu-

ture,” Sept. 24, 1982; “Cable Television Com-ing of Age,” Dec. 27, 1985; “BroadcastingDeregulation,” Dec. 4, 1987; Kenneth Jost,“The Future of Television,” Dec. 31, 1994,pp. 1129-1152.31 For background, see David Masci, “The Fu-ture of Telecommunications,” CQ Researcher,April 23, 1999, pp. 329-352.32 Robert W. McChesney, The Problems of theMedia (2004), p. 53.33 Joelle Tessler, “2006 Legislative Summary:Telecommunications Overhaul,” CQ Weekly,Dec. 16, 2006, p. 3370.

34 For background, see Marcia Clemmitt,“Controlling the Internet,” CQ Researcher,May 12, 2006, pp. 409-432.35 Joelle Tessler, “Diversity Debate ShapesMedia Ownership Rules,” CQ Weekly, Jan. 27,2007, p. 302.36 Brian Williams, “Enough About You,” Time,Dec. 25, 2006-Jan. 1, 2007, p. 78.37 Terry Teachout, “Culture in the Age ofBlogging,” Commentary , June 2005,www.terryteachout.com/archives20070204.shtml#108419.

FOR MORE INFORMATIONAssociation of National Advertisers, 708 Third Ave., New York, NY 10017;(212) 697-5950; www.ana.net. A trade association for the marketing communitythat follows industry trends, offers networking and training opportunities andlobbies on behalf of advertisers.

Center for the Digital Future, University of Southern California Annenberg Schoolfor Communication, 300 S. Grand Ave., Suite 3950, Los Angeles, CA 90071; (213)437-4433; www.digitalcenter.org. A research and policy institute devoted to thestudy of mass media and evolving communication technologies.

Center for the Study of Popular Television, S. I. Newhouse School of PublicCommunications, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244; (315) 443-4077;http://newhouse.syr.edu. An academic center that supports research into all as-pects of television and popular culture.

Comparative Media Studies Program, Building 14N-207, Massachusetts Instituteof Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139; (617) 253-3599;http://cms.mit.edu. Sponsors conferences and encourages students to understandmedia changes that cut across delivery techniques and national borders.

Federal Communications Commission, 445 12th St., S.W., Washington, DC 20554;(888) 225-5322; www.fcc.gov. The federal agency charged with regulating interstateand international communications by radio, television, wire, satellite and cable.

National Association of Broadcasters, 1771 N St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036;(202) 429-5300; www.nab.org. A trade association that lobbies Congress, the FCCand the judiciary on behalf of more than 8,300 local radio and television stationsand the broadcast networks.

National Association of Television Program Executives, 5757 Wilshire Blvd.,Penthouse 10, Los Angeles, CA 90036; (310) 453-4440; www.natpe.org. Serves asa clearinghouse for information and convenes meetings for professionals involvedin the creation, development and distribution of TV programming.

National Cable Television Association, 25 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Suite 100,Washington, DC 20001; (202) 222-2300; www.ncta.com. The principal trade associ-ation of the cable television industry, representing 200 cable networks and cableoperators who serve more than 90 percent of the nation’s cable TV households.

FOR MORE INFORMATION

166 CQ Researcher

Books

Carter, Bill, Desperate Networks, Doubleday, 2006.The New York Times TV reporter recounts behind-the-scenes

stories of how many of today’s hottest shows made it onthe air (and, in many cases, almost didn’t).

Jenkins, Henry, Convergence Culture: Where Old and NewMedia Collide, NYU Press, 2006.The director of MIT’s comparative media-studies program

looks at how content is flowing across multiple media plat-forms and how audiences are migrating to watch and in-teract with it.

Marc, David, and Robert J. Thompson, Television in theAntenna Age: A Concise History, Blackwell Publishing,2005.The authors, both affiliated with Syracuse University, sum-

marize both technological evolution and the content pre-sented during TV’s first 50 years.

Articles

Creamer, Matthew, “John Doe Edges Out Jeff Goodby,”Advertising Age, Jan. 8, 2007, p. S-4.User-generated videos that feature popular consumer prod-

ucts are, in cases such as “The Diet Coke & Mentos Experi-ment,” doing a better job of selling those products than paidadvertising, making the consumer the “agency of the year.”

Garfield, Bob, “YouTube vs. Boob Tube,” Wired, December2006.

Advertising Age’s editor-at-large argues the fractured mediauniverse means TV will lose its ad-dollar dominance butmakes it clear that no one is sure how to make moneysponsoring user-generated content.

Grossman, Lev, “Person of the Year: You,” Time, Dec. 25,2006-Jan. 1, 2007.The next generation of the Web involves more participation

and creativity from users, greater consumer control of videoand text content and more news being made and coveredby average people.

Levin, Gary, “Networks Have Eyes on the Prize,” USAToday, Dec. 18, 2006, p. 1D.With scripted-programming costs rising, all the major net-

works have multiple game shows in production or devel-opment.

McHugh, Josh, “The Super Network,” Wired, September2005, p. 107.

The writer argues that Yahoo! has taken the lead in formu-lating intuitive ways to help people search through millionsof hours of programming in a comprehensible way.

Rockwell, Lisa, “Web Sparks Advertising Revolution,”Austin American-Statesman, Dec. 17, 2006, p. H1.With so many viewers watching video via the Internet and

new devices, advertisers wonder how long a 50-year-oldbusiness model built on expensive TV advertising will besustained.

Sullivan, Kevin, “Regular Folks, Shooting History,” TheWashington Post, Dec. 18, 2006, p. A1.Devices such as cell-phone cameras are making it easier

for non-journalists to capture images of the news as it hap-pens, and there is an increasing market for their picturesand videos online and through established news outlets.

Verrier, Richard, “No Time for Making ‘Friends’ at NBC,”Los Angeles Times, Nov. 7, 2006.NBC’s decision to cut back on scripted programming in

prime time is a signal that such programming, which is ex-pensive to produce, is fading fast — particularly sitcoms.

Reports and Studies

Berman, Saul J., Niall Duffy and Louisa A. Shipnuck,“The End of Television As We Know It,” IBM Institutefor Business Value, 2006.The generations-old model of a TV audience happily em-

bracing scheduled programming is coming to an end. Overthe next several years, programmers, networks and their com-petitors will have to stay ahead of “gadgeteers,” who willlead passive viewers into a more interactive future.

Foehr, Ulla G., “Media Multitasking Among AmericanYouth: Prevalence, Predictors and Pairings,” Kaiser FamilyFoundation, December 2006.More than 80 percent of 7th-to-12th-graders use more than

one media device at a time on a regular basis, but their pri-mary loyalty is to television.

Roberts, Donald F., Ulla G. Foehr and Victoria Rideout,“Generation M: Media in the Lives of 8-18 Year-Olds,”Kaiser Family Foundation, March 2005.A national survey of children and teens finds that most live

in homes with access to multiple media outlets. Since thereare only so many hours in a day, kids increase their alreadyheavy “media diets” through multitasking — using a com-puter or listening to music while watching TV, rather thandevoting their attention to one device at a time.

Selected Sources

Bibliography

Feb. 16, 2007 167Available online: www.cqresearcher.com

Advertising

Auletta, Ken, “The New Pitch; Do Ads Still Work?” TheNew Yorker, March 28, 2005, p. 34.TV ads no longer produce the same brand awareness as

40 years ago due to an audience oversaturated with salespitches and technologies capable of eliminating TV ads.

Fonda, Daren, “Prime-Time Peddling; the 30-Second Spotis Under Assault. But Advertisers and TV Producers Havea Solution: Make the Brand an Inseparable Part of theShow,” Time, May 30, 2005, p. 50.Television networks and advertisers have become more re-

ceptive to the idea of product placement.

Foroohar, Rana, and Brad Stone, “New Ways to DriveHome the Message,” Newsweek, May 30, 2005, p. 55.To counter devices that bypass TV ads, advertisers are coming

up with more innovative ways to reach their target audiences.

New Technologies

“A Fuzzy Picture; Mobile TV,” The Economist, Jan. 7, 2006.Innovative companies such as Apple are making strides in

the mobile market, but their prospects are still unclear.

“Verizon Cell Phones to Control TiVo TelevisionRecorders,” Agence France-Presse, March 7, 2006.TiVo has partnered with Verizon Wireless to enable cus-

tomers to use their mobile phones to control recorders.

Joseph, Nicole, and Johnnie L. Roberts, “Keepin’ it onthe Download,” Newsweek, Aug. 1, 2005, p. 42.Just five years after the last digital-entertainment boom went

bust, downloadable and streamed entertainment — from liveevents to video news and sports — is back.

Liedtke, Michael, “Coming to a Computer Near You: Net-flix Delivered on the Internet,” The Associated Press,Jan. 15, 2007.Preparing for anticipated technology shifts that threaten its sur-

vival, Netflix will start delivering movies and TV episodes online.

Reality Television

Bauder, David, “Newsmagazines are Facing a Grim Re-ality,” Chicago Tribune, May 3, 2006, p. C9.Newsmagazines once satisfied the networks’ need for rel-

atively cheap prime-time programming, but now they arelosing out to reality TV.

Goodale, Gloria, and Daniel B. Wood, “Moviegoers toHollywood: ‘Make it Real,’ ” The Christian Science Monitor,Feb. 1, 2006, p. 1.

A new generation of moviegoers raised on reality televisionnow seems to prefer “reality”-based films over scripted ones.

McDowell, Jeanne, and James Poniewozik, “How RealityTV Fakes It,” Time, Feb. 6, 2006, p. 60.Reality-television techniques can be used not just to de-

ceive but also to tell a story clearly and entertainingly.

Verrier, Richard, “Reality Check: Unscripted TV a Hit forL.A. Economy; Production of Such Programs Jumped in2006 as Films and Commercials Declined,” Los AngelesTimes, Jan. 25, 2007, p. C1.Reality television has become an increasingly important

component of the Los Angeles entertainment infrastructure.

User-Generated Content

“The Trouble with YouTube,” The Economist, Sept. 2, 2006.Video-sharing sites such as YouTube attract many viewers,

but they face the ongoing difficulties of copyright infringementand enormous operational costs.

Grossman, Lev, “Person of the Year: You,” Time, Dec. 25,2006, p. 38.If the Web initially was all about disseminating informa-

tion and grafting old business onto a new medium, Web2.0 is all about user-generated content.

Pfanner, Eric, “Leave It to the Professionals? Hey, LetConsumers Make Their Own Ads,” The New York Times,Aug. 4, 2006, p. C4.The so-called Web 2.0 phenomenon, reflected in the pop-

ularity of user-generated sites such as MySpace and YouTube,has created a new breed of amateur advertisers.

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