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CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder, Colorado Monday, October 23, 2006

CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

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Page 1: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006

Edward O’Lenic

Michael Halpert, David Unger

NOAA-NWS-CPC

31st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction WorkshopBoulder, Colorado

Monday, October 23, 2006

Page 2: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OverviewDuring 2005-06 CPC implemented an objective forecast tools

consolidation (CON), combining OCN, CCA, SMLR and CFS into a single CON tool. In retrospective forecasts over 1995-2004 CON improved on official (OFF) temperature (T) and precipitation (P) forecasts by ~18% and ~130%, respectively. We don’t have cross-validated scores yet for this technique and, therefore, don’t know how CON performs on independent data. However, Dave Unger has cross-validated this technique on SST forecasts and found no significant difference in skill between dependent and independent data sets.

I will discuss the performance of the 12 ASO2005-JAS2006 ½-month lead T, P forecasts in the context of OFF real-time and CON retrospective forecasts from 1995-2006.

Page 3: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

%100)(

)(

et

ecs

)(

)3

(

et

ecec

s

randomoverforecastsofficialoftimprovemens .....%.

Non-EC All=Non-EC and EC

Page 4: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12-month mean skill

TNon-EC

Page 5: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

12 612-month mean skill

PNon-EC

Page 6: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12 612-month mean skill

T P

Page 7: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12 612-month mean skill

13 2236 37 1995-2006 standard deviation

T P

Page 8: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12 612-month mean skill

13 2236 37 1995-2006 standard deviation

1995-2006 corr. Skill vs % coverage (non-EC) 0 6-1 -2

T P

Page 9: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12 612-month mean skill

13 2236 37 1995-2006 standard deviation

1995-2006 corr. Skill vs % coverage (non-EC) 0 6-1 -2

T P

1995-2006 corr. Skill vs % coverage (ALL) 13 2126 16

Page 10: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

47 48 12 612-month mean skill

13 2236 37 1995-2006 standard deviation

1995-2006 corr. Skill vs % coverage (non-EC)

1995-2006 corr. Skill vs % coverage (ALL)

0 613 21

-1 -226 16

T P

•It was a very good year for both T and P OFF forecasts.•OFF followed CON closely for T, mediocre guidance for P.•SD is large for T, CON P, implying big swings in skill.•There is no relationship between skill and % coverage for non-EC forecasts•Area-weighted, all stations skill is more meaningful than non-EC

Page 11: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

01 ASO

T4531

skill

Page 12: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

01 ASO

P-2132

skill

Page 13: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

01 ASO

T P4531

skill skill

-2132

Page 14: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

02 SON

T1240

skill

Page 15: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

02 SON

Pskill

-2312

Page 16: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

02 SON

T P1240

skill skill

-2312

Page 17: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

03 OND

T5555

skill

Page 18: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

03 OND

Pskill

-13-3

Page 19: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

03 OND

T P5555

skill skill

-13-3

Page 20: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

04 NDJ

T8485

skill

Page 21: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

04 NDJ

Pskill

23-18

Page 22: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

04 NDJ

T P8485

skill skill

23-18

Page 23: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

05 DJF

T7771

skill

Page 24: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

05 DJF

P7771

skill

-4-18

Page 25: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

05 DJF

T P7771

skill skill

-4-18

Page 26: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

06 JFM

T6468

skill

Page 27: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

06 JFM

Pskill

558

Page 28: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

06 JFM

T P6468

skill skill

558

Page 29: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

07 FMA

T3138

skill

Page 30: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

07 FMA

Pskill

15-8

Page 31: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

07 FMA

T P3138

skill skill

15-8

Page 32: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

08 MAM

T3827

skill

Page 33: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

08 MAM

Pskill

328

Page 34: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

08 MAM

T P3827

skill skill

328

Page 35: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

09 AMJ

T4843

skill

Page 36: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

09 AMJ

Pskill

4033

Page 37: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

09 AMJ

T P4843

skill skill

4033

Page 38: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

10 MJJ

T3936

skill

Page 39: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

10 MJJ

Pskill

23-6

Page 40: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

10 MJJ

T P3936

skill skill

23-6

Page 41: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

11 JJA

T6058

skill

Page 42: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

11 JJA

Pskill

-96

Page 43: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

11 JJA

T P6058

skill skill

-96

Page 44: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

12 JAS

T1220

skill

Page 45: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

12 JAS

Pskill

2719

Page 46: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

12 JAS

T P1220

skill skill

2719

Page 47: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

Summary• CPC’s objective consolidation (CON) of OCN, CCA, SMLR, CFS improves

upon official (OFF), ½-month lead T forecasts (FMA1995-JFM2005) by about 18% and about 130% for P (non-EC).

• CPC began using CON for T in fall, 2005, and for P in mid- 2006.• It was a very good year for both T and P OFF forecasts, with T skill

continuously above zero.• SD is large for T, CON P, implying big swings in skill.• CON was good guidance for T, poor guidance for P for these 12 forecasts. • There is no relationship between skill and % coverage for non-EC forecasts.• There is a weak skill-%coverage relationship for all stations skill.• Subjective deviations from CON P succeeded perhaps because CON

predictions cover smaller contiguous areas than OFF. • CON predicts much larger area coverage for T than OFF, especially in the

eastern U.S.• Forecasts appear to change much more than the OBS from lead-to-lead.

Page 48: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

01 ASO

T P4531

skill skill

-2132

Page 49: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

02 SON

T P1240

skill skill

-2312

Page 50: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

03 OND

T P5555

skill skill

-13-3

Page 51: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

04 NDJ

T P8485

skill skill

23-18

Page 52: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

05 DJF

T P7771

skill skill

-4-18

Page 53: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

06 JFM

T P6468

skill skill

558

Page 54: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

07 FMA

T P3138

skill skill

15-8

Page 55: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

08 MAM

T P3827

skill skill

328

Page 56: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

09 AMJ

T P4843

skill skill

4033

Page 57: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

10 MJJ

T P3936

skill skill

23-6

Page 58: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

11 JJA

T P6058

skill skill

-96

Page 59: CPC Seasonal Forecasts ASO 2005-JAS 2006 Edward O’Lenic Michael Halpert, David Unger NOAA-NWS-CPC 31 st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder,

OFF VER CON

12 JAS

T P1220

skill skill

2719