CPAU Human Security Projectxa.yimg.com/kq/groups/9521157/17480698/name/Quarterly...CPAU Quarterly Human Security Report: Nangarhar Province, Quarter 2 3 Table of Contents 1. Human

CPAU Human Security Project

Quarterly Report: Nangarhar Province, April - June 2010

CPAU Quarterly Human Security Report: Nangarhar Province, Quarter 2 2

Front Cover: The map depicts the average Human Security Score from Jalalabad (3.20), Muhmand Dara (3.16) and Surkh Rud (3.41) districts in May 2010. Scores closer to 0 represent poor human security, scores closer to 5 indicate good human security.

Acknowledgements

The Human Security Monitoring Framework could not have been implemented without the hard work of our research team for the project. Special thanks goes to all the researchers both from Kabul and those in the field. The project took our teams into very challenging areas and only through their diligence were we able to produce significant results. More broadly thanks goes to all those that have commented and had input to the final reports.

If you would like to discuss the reports in more detail please contact Mirwais Wardak [email protected] Lawrence Devlin at [email protected]

Note:

The Human Security Indicators Project was implemented by Cooperation for Peace and Unity (CPAU). Data collection was carried out in 9 districts in 3 provinces in Afghanistan from January – March 2010. The sites include, Kabul Province: Kabul City, Kalakan and Surobi; Kunduz Province: Kunduz city, Imam Sahib and Ali Abad; Helmand Province: Lashkar Gah, Nad-i Ali and Garmsir. Data collection continued in these sites and expanded to 6 other districts in Kandahar Province: Kandahar City, Arghandab and Spin Boldak; Nangarhar Province: Jalalabad city, Surkh Rud and Muhmand Dara. Data from all sites was collected each month from April – August 2010.

This Quarterly Report aims to provide a comparison of three sites in Nangarhar across the 25 indicators over the three months from April – June 2010. The Quarterly Report is based on the Monthly Reports provided for each district. Additional Sectoral Papers focus on analysis and comparison of districts between provinces.

The Human Security Scores outlined in the report do not necessarily rank the same number of incidents, nor necessarily use the same respondent groups across indicators. An explanation of the respondent groups and questions asked is available in the Human Security Indicator Methodology Paper.

The scores from 0-5 are also relative to population sizes and are based on ranges outlined in the Human Security Technical Annex. Please note that a score close to 5 is considered to represent a good level of Human Security, a score close to 0 is a very poor level of Human Security.


Table of Contents 1. Human Security Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 3

2. Background information: Nangarhar Province ................................................................................................................... 5

Political History ..................................................................................................................................................... 5

Provincial capital: Jalalabad ............................................................................................................................. 6

District: Muhmand Dara ..................................................................................................................................... 6

District: Surkh Rud ............................................................................................................................................... 6

3. Quarter 2: Indicator Scores & Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 7

Cluster 1: Personal/Physical security ............................................................................................................................ 7

Cluster 2: Freedom of Movement ..................................................................................................................................... 9

Cluster 3: Household Security .........................................................................................................................................11

Cluster 4: Economic (Trade/Business) Security .....................................................................................................14

Cluster 5: Judicial & Political Security .........................................................................................................................16


Human Security Summary The physical security situation is markedly different in Surkh Rud when compared with

Jalalabad and Muhmand Dara. While the situation in Surkh Rud is severe and deteriorated slightly over the quarter, with a few attacks causing civilian deaths during the last months, the picture in Muhmand Dara and Jalalabad is much more positive. While we would expect Muhmand Dara to be more insecure due to the shared border with Pakistan, the presence of the police and border controls have reduced smuggling and insecurity, and pushed insurgents away from the centre of the district. Apart from these differences in physical security, the Human Security trends and problems people face were more or less similar in terms of bribery, lack of quality health services and employment, as well as an inaccessible and slow court system.

The population in Jalalabad and Surkh Rud appear to have good relations with the police. In Muhmand Dara, people wish the police to have a stronger presence at night. Bribery is a continuous problem throughout Nangarhar, and government officials and municipalities in particular are accused of taking bribes. The divide between Surkh Rud, on the one hand, and Muhmand Dara and Jalalabad, on the other, is also evident in access to schools and health centers. A limited number of schools and only one health centre are available in the district and inaccessible routes to the district centre prevent many people from outlying villages accessing either. The situation is very different in Muhmand Dara and Jalalabad, where a number of facilities are available, although poverty and the mixed male/female composition of schools sometimes prevents parents from sending their boys and girls to school.

Due to the shared border with Pakistan, Muhmand Dara has particularly high levels of in-migration of returning families. Many respondents noted that harassment by the Pakistani police compelled people to return to Afghanistan.

Public passenger transportation is relatively affordable but often runs only infrequently in Jalalabad. Transportation is more frequent in Surkh Rud due to the close proximity of the district to Jalalabad. Informal charges are often demanded by traffic police.

As the province of Nangarhar is largely rural, the start of the second growing season clearly improved the food security throughout the province and also the employment availability in Muhmand Dara in May and June. However, this trend is less pronounced in Jalalabad, where agricultural production features less in the livelihood mechanisms of the city inhabitants. While we would expect these seasonal changes to be reflected in an improved perception of the economic situation, this proves to be a very unstable indicator, possibly related to indicators other than employment availability and wages. Moreover, access to land seemed to have declined in Muhmand Dara; this correlates with the large influx of returnee families

The three districts within Nangarhar province score continuously low on political and judicial security indicators. On the one hand, elected officials rarely engage with the local population at the village level, on the other hand, the low number of new court cases point to the fact that people do not approach the formal legal system to solve their conflicts. However, community elders and religious leaders are uniformly respected and actively involved in the lives of their communities.


1. Background information: Nangarhar Province Nangarhar province lies in the east of Afghanistan. Sharing a border with Pakistan means large amounts of migration in both directions. The population of Nangarhar is more than 90% Pashtun, a characteristic shared by the areas on the Pakistani side of the border, giving the entire region a degree of homogeneity. The province also contains significant minorities of Tajik, Arab and Pashai people, as well as a number of Kuchi nomads. The provincial population is 1,383,9001, the vast majority of whom (87%) are rural dwellers2.

Agriculture and livestock farming provide the majority of livelihoods in Nangarhar, although the province is rich in natural resources with good supplies of water from rivers and mountain run-off, two large marble mines and a wealth of forest alongside the Spin Ghar mountain3. The agricultural land is fed by both the Kabul and Kunar rivers4.

The land surrounding the provincial capital Jalalabad is fertile and well irrigated, and produces wheat, rice, pulse, fruit and vegetables to supply neighbouring provinces as well as Pakistan and further afield5.

Nangarhar’s Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) is led by the US and has completed hundred of projects, including infrastructure, agriculture, returnees and micro-finance initiatives6.

Political History Nangarhar has always maintained close links with Pakistan due to its proximity, ethnic and tribal ties, extensive trading and migration flows. This has influenced its political and military history, and the province has provided a base for resistance to both the Soviet and US invasions.

Following the US invasion, the remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda leadership and their fighters, made their base in Tora Bora, a cave complex in Pachir Wa Agam district of south-eastern Nangahar, near the Pakistan border. Despite concerted attacks by Afghan troops, US and British special forces from October to December 2001, al-Qaeda’s leadership escaped to Pakistan probably largely intact7.

The current governor of Nangarhar is Gul Agha Sherzai, appointed in 2004, who has a history of opposition to the Taliban and continues to be an important political ally of President Karzai. Sherzai was previously governor of Kandahar.

Among the active political and armed groups in the province are Hizb-i Islami Gulbuddin (HiG), led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and Tora Bora Nizami Mahaz (Tora Bora Military Front), led by Anwarul Haq Mujahid, both openly hostile to international forces in the province8.

1 UNFPA Population figures (2010), [Accessed 09/03/2010] 2 NPS PCCS, Nangahar Provincial Profile, [Accessed 08/03/2010], http://www.nps.edu/Programs/CCS/Docs/Executive%20Summaries/Nangarhar%20Executive%20Summary.pdf 3 AISA Nangahar Provincial Profile, [Accessed 08/03/2010]. http://www.aisa.org.af/Downloads/ProvincialProfiles/Nangarhar.pdf 4 NPS PCCS, Nangahar Provincial Profile, [Accessed 08/03/2010], http://www.nps.edu/Programs/CCS/Docs/Executive%20Summaries/Nangarhar%20Executive%20Summary.pdf 5 USAID FEWSNET, Afghanistan rural livelihood profiles, September 2005 6 http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/afghanistan/ 7 Peter Bergen, The Long Hunt for Osama, The Atlantic, October 2004, [Accessed 09/03/2010], http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/10/the-long-hunt-for-osama/3508/ 8 NPS PCCS, Nangarhar Province webpage, [Accessed 09/03/2010], http://www.nps.edu/programs/ccs/Nangarhar.html


Hezb-e Islami Khalis (HiK) broke away from HiG, now led by Haji Din Mohammad, current governor of Kabul province.

Provincial capital: Jalalabad Jalalabad has a rich tradition of commerce because of its location on the historic trade routes to Peshawar and the Indian subcontinent. It is the main hub for agricultural produce from the surrounding area, a region endowed with fertile land and plentiful harvests.

District: Muhmand Dara The district of Muhmand Dara is situated in the east of Nangarhar, at the border of Pakistan, and comprises about seven major villages. The Torkham border, located in the district, is the crossing point to Pakistan. The location of the district at the border with Pakistan yields some possibilities for daily wage labour at Torkham and within Pakistan. However, more than 50% of inhabitants are farmers. A small number are traders or government employees. Farmers grow wheat, corn, sugar cane, vegetables, and rice. Due to various springs and the Kunar River, the land condition is very good although river flooding frequently destroys cultivated land, particularly farmland located between Anbarkhna and Kama Daka. Animal husbandry is also an important source of livelihoods, and many residents own cows, buffalos, goats and donkeys.

Previously, Muhmand Dara was a poppy-growing district. According to UNDCP, in 2002, there were 38 poppy-growing villages in the district9. However, the opium production has been reduced dramatically since 2005, when the Afghan government launched a major eradication initiative.

District: Surkh Rud Surkh Rud district is located in the north of Nangarhar province, about 7km from Jalalabad city. The district center is the town of Sultanpur. Surkh Rud comprises about 40 major villages. While the district is known for its fertile land, the availability of cultivated land is currently not sufficient to meet the needs of the population as the district regularly suffers from severe drought. Around 60% of the land is directly affected by drought and only the remaining land can be cultivated. Fathabad is the area which is most affected by the lack of water. People grow particularly sugar cane, wheat, maize and some vegetables. Animal husbandry was previously a main source of income but incomes from animals have reduced due to drought, although residents still continue to keep livestock such as small numbers of goats, cows, sheep and donkeys. The main sources of income are agriculture, handicraft and casual labour. The overall economic situation is poor and the presence of armed groups in Surkh Rud contributes to a unstable security situation10.

9 Afghanistan Opium Poppy Survey 2002 Pre-Assessment, UNDCP, February 2002. 10 UNHCR Sub-Office JALALABAD: DISTRICT PROFILE, 4/21/2002 http://aims.org.af/afg/dist_profiles/unhcr_district_profiles/eastern/nangarhar/surkh_rod.pdf

http://aims.org.af/afg/dist_profiles/unhcr_district_profiles/eastern/nangarhar/surkh_rod.pdf


2. Quarter 2: Indicator Scores & Analysis

Cluster 1: Personal/Physical security

Cluster 1 Analysis

Although relatively peaceful compared to other provinces, insecurity remains a problem in Nangarhar. Despite significant differences between the sample districts, all reportedly had serious challenges to sustainable security which need to be overcome.

Surkh Rud is the most insecure of all three districts as it is connected via one road to Khughani, the province’s most insecure area along with Sherzai. The road connecting Surkh Rud and Khughani is frequently mined and several mines have been removed in recent months. Local cooperation with the police and their active passing of information when IEDs are laid means that the majority are recovered before detonation. Despite this, the security situation in the district worsened slightly due to a number of attacks between April and June. Respondents reported that these attacks were directed by the International Military Forces and resulted in the death of several civilians. These actions subsequently led to local demonstrations.

Relations with the police were reportedly good across the sample districts, particularly in Jalalabad and Surkh Rud, where the police have a strong and reassuring presence. Even in Muhmand Dara, where the police do not patrol at night, respondents reported that they would welcome a larger police presence, despite some policemen being implicated in rapes.

Provincial Governor Sherzai controls the checkpoints and the border within Nangarhar. His control of border crossings has reduced smuggling and pushed the main entry point for insurgents away from Muhmand Dara to neighbouring Lal Pur. Overall Sherzai appears to be well liked and there is a strong belief that if he leaves, the situation in Muhmand Dara may deteriorate quickly. The heightened presence of border police means that the Taliban presence in the district is restricted to traversing the mountain passes which cut across the area to the north and south of the main border crossing point.

Bribery is a problem in all the three reporting districts. Most people have heard of incidents, giving a consistently low HS score, and many have experienced bribery themselves, albeit at fluctuating levels throughout the reporting period. Respondents allege that bribery is like a "custom" and that "everyone" takes bribe, especially government officials. According to respondents in all three districts, municipalities and courts take bribes, and renewing Identity Cards in particular is an expensive undertaking. Checkpoints were generally not noted as sites for demanding payment. In Muhmand Dara checkpoints did not cause any disruption at all. However, in Jalalabad some respondents acknowledged that some police took advantage of checkpoints and used them to extract informal taxes. The ANA, however, were not seen as perpetrators in informal taxation.

Surkh Rud was the only district that reported insurgent checkpoints, and this corresponded with the highest reported level of ANSF checkpoints, which were also present in Muhmand Dara. Respondents, however, did not generally find them disruptive to their everyday lives.


Cluster 1 Data

Indicator Jalalabad Muhmand Dara Surkh Rud

April May June Change April May June Change April May June Change

1.1 Attacks in district against International and national forces (-)

4.95 4.97 4.87 -0.08 4.91 5.00 4.88 -0.03 4.76 4.91 4.91 0.15

1.2 Threats by resistance groups (shabnameh: preaching in mosques) (-)

5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00

1.3

Threats, intimidation and bribery by ANSF & government (-)

Experienced bribery, extortion , or threats by ANSF & government in the district / province in the last month

2.92 4.38 3.04 0.13 4.38 4.00 4.12 -0.26 3.44 5.00 2.17 -1.26

Heard about bribery, extortion, or threats by ANSF & government in the district / province in the last month

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.31 0.31 0.29 2.50 0.00 -0.29

Total 1.46 2.19 1.52 0.06 2.19 2.18 2.22 0.03 1.87 3.75 1.09 -0.78

1.4 Violent clashes injuring/killing civilians (-) 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00

Q2 Change Q2 Change Q2 Change

1.5 Number of checkpoints (-)

Number of ANSF/military checkpoints

5.00 0.00 4.94 0.00 3.31 0.00

Number of insurgent checkpoints

5.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 4.66 0.00

Total 5.00 0.00 4.97 0.00 3.99 0.00

Cluster Total 4.28 4.43 4.28 -0.00 4.41 4.43 4.41 -0.00 4.12 4.53 4.00 -0.13


Cluster 2: Freedom of Movement

Cluster 2 Analysis

Freedom of movement and access to services are relatively stable in Nangarhar, showing little if any improvement over the quarter.

Overall, there has been little change in the availability of transportation in Nangarhar during the last three months. Transportation runs relatively frequently from Surkh Rud to Jalalabad and costs are low, although they fluctuate in the short term. Transportation is also affordable, though relatively infrequent, between Jalalabad and Kabul, running about four times per week. The same trend was observed in Muhmand Dara with cars usually running only every second day to Jalalabad.

Drivers in Jalalabad expressed their discontent with the traffic police who are accused of setting up a private bus station in the city centre and allowing cars to use it at a fee. There are also formal taxes for journeys from Jalalabad to Kabul; however, each formal tax usually has an increased informal tax attached. There are also reportedly charges at Kama bridge and Behsud bridge. There are virtually no informal charges in Surkh Rud despite the high levels of checkpoints.

School attendance, although at a high level across the province, is lower in Surkh Rud due to the limited facilities available in many of the villages, and the distance to the district centre for many children. The intense heat during the summer months means that many small boys cannot attend and harassment of girls is frequently a problem that prevents them from attending. In some areas only mixed schools are available, and this was seen as a problem for a significant minority of parents. Jalalabad contains multiple schools and access to education is consequently much easier for both girls and boys. Conditions are better in Muhmand Dara, where the proportion of girls attending school is almost at the level of boys.

A similar pattern can be seen in access to healthcare, with reasonable access to healthcare in Jalalabad and Muhmand Dara, but a distinct lack of facilities in Surkh Rud. The district has only one health centre making access difficult for those in the outlying villages. Moreover, there are many more patients than the health centre can deal with and respondents usually reported low quality services and lack of skilled doctors and medicine. The precarious security situation in Surkh Rud is a factor in restricting any movement within the district.

Within Jalalabad, there are a number of health centres both government and private health care. However, there are still not enough to deal with all patients and the better-off often travel to Pakistan to seek medical treatment.

Migration declined over the reporting quarter, leading to an increase in Human Security scores in all districts. Migrant flows in Jalalabad and Surkh Rud are minor, while flows into and out of Muhmand Dara are much more significant due to the district’s proximity to Pakistan. Some members of the community left Muhmand Dara because of the oppressive summer heat and a large influx of returnees arrived from Pakistan due to harrassment by Pakistani Police and the fact that Afghan refugees face many barriers to working. Population movement within Jalalabad is largely incoming due to work opportunities within the city, although the summer heat has also caused people to leave Nangarhar for Kabul and other central areas. Economic migrants reportedly came to the city on a daily basis, rather than moving their homes and families. Some families have fled Surkh Rud due to ethnic discrimination of Pashtuns, while other families have come from Paktia and Logar due to the insecurity in these areas.


Cluster 2 Data



2.1

Cost & frequency of public transport (to provincial capital) (-)

Afs / km 3.33 1.67 3.75 0.41 3.80 0.88 3.77 -0.03 4.09 0.83 4.32 0.23

Number of journeys per day x number of cars servicing route

1.07 2.07 2.94 1.87 0.89 1.46 0.88 -0.01 1.88 2.34 1.89 0.02

Total 2.20 2.78 3.34 1.14 2.35 2.83 2.33 -0.02 2.98 3.29 3.11 0.12

2.2 Informal taxes for travelling along a road (-)

3.75 3.63 3.54 -0.21 5.00 4.00 4.13 -0.88 4.86 5.00 5.00 0.14

Q2 Change Q2 Change Q2 Change

2.3 Number of children attending school (+)

School attendance (age 6-13) male, as percentage of potential attendance rates

4.50 0.00 4.88 0.00 3.47 0.00

School attendance (age 6-13) female, as a percentage of potential attendance rates

3.08 0.00 4.10 0.00 2.98 0.00

Total 3.80 0.00 4.50 0.00 3.23 0.00

2.4 Number of patients using healthcare centres by population number (+)

3.17 0.00 2.07 0.00 0.27 0.00


2.5 Returnee, IDP and migrant movements (-)

4.07 5.00 5.00 0.93 -0.96 0.67 1.52 2.48 3.05 4.97 5.00 1.95

Cluster Total 3.40 3.68 3.77 0.37 2.59 2.81 2.91 0.32 2.88 3.35 3.32 0.44


Cluster 3: Household Security

Cluster 3 Analysis

Despite the mixed economic picture in Nangarhar and the beginning of the summer harvest, the overall household security situation has declined since the winter across all indicators except food consumption, which reportedly increased over the quarter.

Although sufficiency of water reportedly declined in Jalalabad, this was not a grave problem, as access to land, livestock ownership and irrigation are less important in the urban environment of Jalalabad than in other districts of Nangarhar.

In Muhmand Dara, the household situation declined noticeably throughout the quarter. The number of people with access to land was remarkably low despite the fact that the district is largely rural and relies on agricultural production and livestock ownership. The reported reduction in access to land may be linked to the high volume of returnee families from Pakistan (see indicator 2.5) claiming land; indeed returnees were accused of causing land conflicts.

Moreover, the flooding of the Kunar River during the summer months contributed to a decline in access to land. This is a particular problem for the people of Muhmand Dara who often reported having too much or too little water, which contributed to a less-than-optimistic outlook (see indicator 3.5). Despite this the river does provide a good water supply for many households and it is largely sufficient for the land. As in the other districts in Nangarhar, there is a lack of coping mechanisms in Muhmand Dara. The flooding of the Kunar River over the summer months also accounts for the increase in natural disasters in Jalalabad and their impact on people’s Human Security.

Livestock is important within Muhmand Dara and people usually keep some animals. However, diseases, especially Tabqh (a fever), are problematic in this area particularly during the summer months, causing the slight increase in threats to livestock ownership.

Food shortages are frequently a problem in Muhmand Dara and people reported that everybody faces food shortages from time to time. However, this is a less serious problem in the summer months and the situation improved markedly after May in conjunction with increased employment

availability (see indicator 4.3). The second planting season starts in May in Nangarhar (see Error! eference source not found.), thus May and June are the months for land preparation and planting providing work for agricultural labourers.

Table 1: Agricultural Seasons11

Agricultural Activities: 1st season: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Land Preparation Planting Irrigation Weeding Harvesting Threshing/Storage Agricultural Activities: 2nd season:

Land Preparation

Planting

Irrigation

Weeding

Harvesting

11 USAID FEWSNET, Afghanistan rural livelihood profiles (zone 6: Eastern Intensively Irrigated Zone, p. 37), September 2005


Threshing/Storage

Livestock activities:

Open range grazing Peak milking Other economic activities:

On farm employment Off farm employment Seasonal migration/remittance

Nangarhar has traditionally been a large opium growing province and since 2001 has had a large, though fluctuating, area of poppy cultivation. Throughout 2008 and 2009, the ongoing counter-narcotics campaign by ISAF and Afghan forces destroyed opium-producing laboratories and seized tons of poppy and chemical precursors to the production process. This demonstrated that the manufacture of morphine and opium had significantly increased within Afghanistan. Despite being designated “poppy free” in 2008, Nangarhar province contained almost 300 hectares of opium poppy by 2009. This is, however, a significant reduction from the 2007 high of nearly 19,000 hectares12. This precipitous drop in opium cultivation within the past 3 years has contributed to the perception of economic uncertainty by some respondents, despite the employment situation , which remained relatively stable over the quarter (see indicator 4.3).

Indeed, the perception of people’s economic situation remained low in all areas apart from the Jalalabad urban centre. Despite seasonal improvements, the precarious security situation was cited as one reason for people’s general pessimism.

12 UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey, December 2009, http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afgh-opiumsurvey2009_web.pdf

http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afgh-opiumsurvey2009_web.pdf

http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afgh-opiumsurvey2009_web.pdf


Cluster 3 Data



3.1

Extent to which water supply meets crops requirements (+)

Households reporting sufficiency (%)

5.00 5.00 0.29 -4.71 2.69 1.33 1.00 -1.69 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.26

Households reporting access to irrigated land (%)

0.00 0.33 2.86 2.86 3.82 5.00 2.08 -1.74 5.00 2.33 2.92 -2.08

Households with coping mechanism (%)

5.00 5.00 2.00 -3.00 2.86 0.71 0.00 -2.86 0.36 0.71 0.29 -0.06

Total 3.33 3.44 1.72 -1.62 3.12 2.35 1.03 -2.10 1.79 1.02 1.16 -0.63

3.2 Threats to livestock ownership (-) 5.00 5.00 4.89 -0.11 4.18 4.55 3.90 -0.28 4.18 4.01 3.75 -0.43

3.3 Percentage of households consuming less than daily calorific requirements (-)

3.89 3.93 4.60 0.71 1.98 3.96 3.13 1.15 3.73 3.02 4.55 0.82

3.4 Impact of natural disasters (-) 5.00 3.33 2.83 -2.17 3.53 3.46 3.54 0.01 3.68 5.00 4.50 0.82

3.5 Perception of household economic situation (+)

1.73 1.67 4.12 2.39 1.91 3.75 2.02 0.11 1.25 3.39 2.13 0.88

Cluster Total 3.79 3.47 3.63 -0.16 2.95 3.61 2.72 -0.22 2.92 3.29 3.22 0.29


Cluster 4: Economic (Trade/Business) Security

Cluster 4 Analysis

There was a clear urban/rural split in the economic security indicators. While Jalalabad enjoyed higher wages, other indicators reflected price increases, such as the price of staple items. Limited access to employment opportunities and credit was also widespread. Employment availability increased in the rural districts as the harvest season approached, and prices remained low.

More work reportedly commenced in Jalalabad owing to improved security for NGOs and the increased pace of reconstruction. However, labourers still tended to lack work as many of them arrive from the districts on a daily basis to seek employment; this means that demand largely outstrips supply. While the wheat season provided employment during the quarter, albeit at the expense of decent wages, traders reportedly lost business as customers left the district, and there was a reported downturn in construction projects; both consequences of the intense summer heat. The availability of credit is also difficult due to the expense of loans.

There is no central bazaar within Muhmand Dara and very little road access within the district – while Torkham is merely a crossing point rather than a trading point. This means that local residents shop in neighbouring districts and the traders within Muhmand Dara stock poor products and turn little profit. Indeed, their daily wages are about 45% lower than the daily wage of labourers, a feature that distinguishes the district from other districts in Nangarhar. This reduced profit is reflected in the relative affordability of shop rental in Muhmand Dara when compared to Jalalabad City centre. However, traders on average still earn slightly more than casual workers as they are usually fully employed throughout the month.

Despite the poor economic conditions for traders in Muhmand Dara, the second agricultural season (see table 1) provides work for agricultural labourers and accounts for the improvement in the availability of employment for the months of May and June.

Underemployment is a major problem in Surkh Rud, with labourers working only for about one third of the month. Similarly to Jalalabad, traders usually enjoy continuous employment. Accordingly, labourers overwhelmingly perceived their economic situation as bad, while there was no such consensus among traders.

Half (in Jalalabad) or the majority of respondents (in Muhmand Dara and Surkh Rud) had taken a loan and have outstanding debts. However, respondents had very different perceptions and knowledge of the credit system, reflecting varying degrees of access to any credit system. The majority of respondents in all sample districts had little knowledge of a formal credit system, usually borrowing money from friends and relatives. The situation in Surkh Rud was better than in other districts with the majority of respondents feeling that they had access to credit and referring to NGOs who could provide loans.


Cluster 4 Data


Q2 Change Q2 Change Q2

4.1 Cost of shop rental (-) 2.34 0.00 5.26 0.00 4.88 0.00


4.2 Price of a basic basket of consumer goods including fuels and agri inputs (-)

3.07 2.27 1.93 -1.15 3.62 3.48 4.03 0.41 4.27 4.47 4.24 -0.03

4.3 Availability of employment reported by casual & agricultural labourers (+)

3.72 3.85 3.28 -0.44 2.61 4.22 4.16 1.55 3.92 3.23 3.63 -0.29

4.4 Average daily wage (Casual/urban & agricultural) (+)

3.37 3.65 2.43 -0.94 0.94 1.54 0.93 -0.01 1.85 1.70 1.37 -0.48

4.5 Access to credit (-)

Percentage of respondents currently with a loan (%)

2.81 2.73 2.81 0.00 3.82 4.78 4.41 0.59 5.26 3.95 2.78 -2.49

Availability of informal credit; % of respondents that feel they have access to credit

2.75 2.65 1.67 -1.08 0.28 1.33 2.50 2.22 3.33 3.82 3.06 -0.28

Total 2.78 2.69 2.24 -0.54 2.05 3.06 3.46 1.41 4.30 3.89 2.92 -1.38

Cluster Total 3.82 2.96 2.44 -1.38 2.90 3.51 3.57 0.67 3.84 3.63 3.41 -0.44


Cluster 5: Judicial & Political Security

Cluster 5 Analysis

Judicial and political security in Nangarhar can be characterised as poor, with few meetings of informal Shura and a continued decline in elected representatives’ visits and cases brought to the informal court system. Only in Muhmand Dara can a positive change in Human Security scores be observed, and even here the level attained remained very low.

In all three reporting districts, elders and religious leaders commanded almost uniform respect from their constituents. Respondents spoke of high esteem for their elders, noting that they are the leaders of society, that people respect them and follow their advice and orders. Moreover, in all three districts, elders seem to be socially active and involved in people’s lives, for instance, attending meetings, weddings and funerals, and giving guidance. This is not reflected in the activity of informal justice mechanisms, however, even though respondents reported approaching elders to solve their conflicts.

Religious leaders within Jalalabad are very active and supported by the population – although the youth tend not to support their role as much. However, religious leaders themselves complained that the government gives no value to their decisions. There was a clear feeling among mullahs that they are challenging the government and that the government should not interfere in their activities. Attempts have been made to start a Shura Ulema (it does not currently meet), however, a lack of government support regarding fees, transport and value has stopped this process. The Shura Awqaf meets once a month.

Within Muhmand Dara, elders and religious leaders are supported and an elder, whose son is in Parliament, is also involved in local level reintegration schemes. Parliamentary visits to the districts are restricted to the district centre and very infrequent.

Court activity is hardly reflected in the Human Security Score as courts usually represent a large number of households. In all three districts, only a few new cases were brought to informal justice mechanisms, reinforcing the impression that people generally do not seek recourse in courts. Moreover, the small number of decisions reached, for instance in Jalalabad, points towards slow and inefficient mechanisms of informal justice. In Muhmand Dara and Surkh Rud there were a larger number of decisions taken, indicating a slightly more active court system in these districts. The Huqooq in both districts, although active, dealt with few cases (mostly land conflicts and traffic accidents), and reportedly had a strained relationship with local Jirga. There was little interaction between the two systems.

Arbitrary detention was noted as a concern by respondents, specifically referring to detention carried out by International Military Forces. In Jalalabad and Surkh Rud, the situation deteriorated significantly, a result that can be linked to the growing use of night raid operations and increasing civilian casualties. Respondents complained that after detention the only response of IMFs is to issue an apology.


Cluster 5 Data



5.1 Number of Ulema Shura meetings in district (+)

1.25 1.25 1.25 0.00 2.50 1.00 1.25 -1.25 0.83 1.50 1.88 1.04

5.2 Number of visits to districts made by Parliamentarians and Provincial Councillors (+)

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.99 0.74 0.74 0.37 -0.37

5.3

Number of new cases and decisions within informal justice mechanisms (+)

Number of new cases per/month/population

1.04 0.11 0.09 -0.95 0.30 0.28 0.58 0.28 1.83 0.99 0.09 -1.74

Number of decisions in courts per/month/population

1.30 0.11 0.18 -1.12 0.35 0.34 1.15 0.80 1.83 0.99 0.40 -1.43

Total 1.17 0.11 0.14 -1.04 0.32 0.31 0.86 0.54 1.83 0.99 0.25 -1.59

5.4

Engagement of religious actors in political and social decision making (+)

Number of consultative and decision making gatherings attended by religious actors per month/population

0.68 0.57 1.25 0.57 0.58 0.63 0.90 0.32 0.16 1.98 0.82 0.67

Public perception of representativeness of Religious leaders; involvement in in Social & Development affairs

5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00

Total 2.84 2.79 3.12 0.28 2.79 2.81 2.95 0.16 2.58 3.49 2.91 0.33

5.5 Levels of arbitrary detention (-) 5.00 3.75 1.58 -3.42 3.33 3.67 3.67 0.33 4.62 5.00 1.58 -3.04

Cluster Total 2.05 1.58 1.22 -0.83 1.79 1.56 1.94 0.15 2.12 2.34 1.40 -0.72

Documents

CPAU Human Security Projectxa.yimg.com/kq/groups/9521157/17480698/name/Quarterly...CPAU Quarterly Human Security Report: Nangarhar Province, Quarter 2 3 Table of Contents 1. Human