COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing

Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd

Science based forecasts for the short- and long-termCOVID-19 Vaccine Briefing

29th June 2021Prepared on behalf of The WTO

Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 2

About Airfinity

Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working for some of the world’s largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, Airfinity has established itself as an authoritative provider of predictive insights and accurate, independent information.

We have built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform.

“Airfinity has been instrumental in our country’s COVID response”- Head of Vaccine Task Force

AIRFINITY DATA IS USED BY MORE THAN 200 NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND TV NETWORKS GLOBALLY


Vaccine production has scaled up quicklyObserved vaccine deliveries to date

Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021 3


Vaccine production now greater than 3.3 billion, showing current growth rate of more than a billion doses per monthGlobal cumulative vaccine production over the last month

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314 million doses produced in the last week

Over 1 billion doses have been produced in the last month

Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021


Vaccine production could exceed 11 billion in 2021, as more vaccines come through the pipelineVaccine production forecast split by candidate

Forecasted on 28/06/2021

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289,973,000246,462,000

263,724,000

161,746,000

5,824,622,000

2,856,484,000

2,137,408,000

30/09/2021

2,179,275,000

3,481,228,000

959,204,000

667,270,000

30/11/2021 31/12/2021

1,576,923,000

10,035,069,000

8,481,562,000

7,063,151,000

31/07/2021

4,621,217,000

11,856,354,000

31/08/2021 31/10/202130/06/2021

1,886,530,000

517,885,000

31/05/2021

CanSino

Sinovac

Pfizer/BioNTech

Bharat

Sinopharm

AstraZeneca

Moderna

J&J

Novavax

Sputnik V

Other

Other vaccines include: (full list in appendix)

COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center)

FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells )

INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma)LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus)

MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax)NasoVAX (Altimmune)

QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems)S-268019 (UMN Pharma)

SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax)UB-612 (Covaxx)

ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei)Vaccine (Medicago/GSK)

Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK)EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)

VLA2001 (Dynavax/Valneva)ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila)


Map of agreed production sites for COVID vaccines. Bubble sizes indicate volume

Global drug substance production sites for vaccines

The map shows production sites where there is known quantities of drug substance. If fill/finish is at the same site as drug substance production, they are included here

83 sites producing vaccine drug substance


Map of agreed production sites (including fill & finish) for COVID vaccines colour coded by in-house or contracted facilities

Globally, there are many more CDMOs than in-house production facilities for COVID vaccines


Forecasted supply of vaccines split by contract or own sites

More production forecasted to come from own sites compared to contract production

Forecasted on 28/06/2021

54,492,574 110,416,457219,447,233

391,194,209460,631,227 697,933,503

1,034,705,6071,415,164,045 3,239,394,113

636,004,197 940,343,411

Dec-21Jul-21Mar-21

4,015,154,466

7,961,929,710

3,141,211,2382,533,993,397

Oct-21Feb-21

1,923,458,538

Aug-21

3,894,424,290

Jan-21

4,828,786,031

May-21Apr-21

1,272,076,3502,553,611,5162,057,006,409

Sep-21 Nov-21

1,641,649,045

6,785,817,381

5,770,960,906

Jun-21

Contract productionProduction from own sites

% production at own sites 89% 86% 83% 78% 75% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67%

% contract production 11% 14% 17% 22% 25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33%

For facilities where known

The USA headquarters many companies that produce subcomponents

These are preliminary numbers and Airfinity is conducting ongoing research.

Equipment:Different equipment are required for vaccine production, including those required in manufacturing and storage: E.g. bioreactors and fridges/freezers.

Chemicals:To produce vaccines, various chemicals are required. These include various buffers throughout the process, and other chemicals such as lipids which are important for the delivery of mRNA vaccines.

Consumables:In addition to large laboratory equipment required to produce vaccines, various items are required for the manufacturing, storage and administering of vaccines. E.g. glass vials, syringes, needles.

Process:Vaccines need to be packaged correctly for distribution. For mRNA vaccines, assembly of the mRNA into lipid nanoparticles is essential. Finally, all vaccines need to be filled into glass vials for distribution.

Some key subcomponents and materials for vaccine supply chains:

39.1%

21.7%

8.7%

4.3%

8.7%

8.7%

JapanItaly

4.3%

Switzerland

GermanyNetherlands

UK

Taiwan

4.3%

USA

Bioreactor suppliers (HQ)

12.5%

12.5%

37.5%

25.0%

12.5%

Germany

Canada

UK

USA

Switzerland

Lipid suppliers (HQ)

28.6%

28.6%

14.3%

14.3%

14.3%

India

Italy

Germany

Japan

USA

Glass Vials Suppliers (HQ) Syringes and needles suppliers (HQ)

11.1%

11.1%

33.3%11.1%

22.2%

11.1%

UK

Japan

Germany

South Korea

USA

China


Comparison of Airfinity forecasts (made in early February) vs observed production up until the end of June

Airfinity forecasts have been realistic to observed production

Airfinity forecast generated in February 2021 10


Contents

Macro Overview: Key changes this week 1

Production forecast overview

Appendix

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Full list of vaccines included in supply and production models

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Supply Production

CVnCoV (Curevac) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax) CVnCoV (Curevac) AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes)

Ad26COVS1 (J&J) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute) Ad26COVS1 (J&J)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells )

mRNA-1273 (Moderna) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei)AZD1222 (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm)

AZD1222 (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax)

BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center) BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute)

NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)

Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm)

SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) UB-612 (Covaxx) SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center)

Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino) Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma)

CoronaVac (Sinovac)QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems) CoronaVac (Sinovac) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax)

IBIO-200 (iBio) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV) IBIO-200 (iBio) UB-612 (Covaxx)

LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino)

hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest)mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel Institute for Biological Research) hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest)

QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems)

NasoVAX (Altimmune) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) NasoVAX (Altimmune) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV)

AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) S-268019 (UMN Pharma)

mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel Institute for Biological Research)

ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)


MORE INFORMATION

Rasmus Bech Hansen, Co-founder and CEO

[email protected]

Mitesh Chainani, Enterprise Account Director

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mailto:[email protected]


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Disclaimer and Copyright Notice

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Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working with some of the world’s largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, it has established itself as an authoritative provider of new predictive insights and accurate independent information.

Airfinity has built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform.

The company is headquartered in London and partners with organisations worldwide.

Airfinity’s COVID-19 data was seen by more than 2 billion people in 2020.

“Airfinity has been instrumental in our country’s COVID response”

Head of Government Vaccine Task Force

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COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing