COVID-19€¦ · customers cut their spend and reduce their mobile packages, which would only partially be offset by increased usage. Longer-term impact will be broadly neutral to

COVID-19Potential EMEIA economic scenarios and their impact by sector

29 April 2020

Information in this publication is intended to provide only a general outline of the subjects

covered. It should not be regarded as comprehensive nor sufficient for making decisions, nor

should it be used in place of professional advice. EY-Parthenon GmbH accepts no responsibility

for loss arising from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this publication.

EY-Parthenon | Page 2

W

Exhibit 1 – Potential economic scenarios associated with COVID-19 recovery

V

W

COVID-19: Potential scenario impact on GDP levels in European economies1

Note: 1) Implied GDP level is illustrative and not a forecast.

Source: EY-Parthenon research and analysis; Imperial College London.

What do you need to believe?

What are the leading indicators?

► W-scenario: Initial drop in demand due to prevention measures and economic uncertainty, followed by reversion to pre-

COVID-19 levels of demand; a subsequent drop due to second wave of COVID-19 infections and response measures.

► “Tick”-scenario: Repeated dips in demand, caused by multiple waves of viral outbreak and prevention measures, each

followed by a small recovery period, with downside reducing each time as medical treatments and resilience increase.

► V-scenario: A single and sustained hit to the economy triggered by an extended period of strict, government-mandated

social distancing lasting 2-3 months from March-June 2020.

V





V-scenario

W-scenario

"Tick"-scenario

Imp

lied

GD

P le

ve

l

► Effective control of the virus spread through strict social distancing measures.

► In the absence of further interventions, the epidemic can be isolated and eradicated in 3-4 months.

► Initial period of social distancing does not stop the spread of COVID-19 via asymptomatic carriers.

► Incidence rate is seasonal, cases decline over summer before rebounding in autumn, following the

same pattern of the 1918 Spanish Flu.

► Two periods of social distancing will successfully bring COVID-19 under control, or an antiviral is

identified in the near-term and quickly rolled-out to ease ICU capacity constraints.

► Rebound in cases in lead countries with similar/stricter measures (Asian countries, as well as countries

hit early in Europe such as Italy and Spain).

► Country testing capacity increases coupled with contact tracing of new cases by winter 2020; isolating

carriers and eradicating the virus after second major outbreak (e.g., S. Korea at present).

► A 12-18 month-long spread of the virus until a vaccine becomes widely available.

► COVID-19 mutation rate is low; no re-infection of previously infected individuals within 6-9 months.

► Developing herd immunity and increased health system capacity (especially ICUs) to manage live

cases sees lower economic impact over time as measures are less restrictive allowing phased return

to business-as-usual.

► Widespread antibody testing indicates increased immunity in the broader population over time.

► Governments establish clear protocols and thresholds for social distancing measures to come into

effect and monitor COVID-19 outbreaks through active testing.

Likelihood(April 20)

► Local transmission rates in a country dip within 4-6 weeks of strong social distancing and do not

rebound as measures are relaxed (Austria, Italy and Spain will provide leading examples).

► Extensive antibody testing program reveals 60%+ of country population has already had virus

(indicating high share of asymptomatic infections).

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a growing impact on the global economy, with uncertainty over the economic impact across all

sectors set against an ever-changing situation. Here, we try to lay out potential scenarios for how the health crisis might shape economies

across Europe over the coming 18-24 months, and the impacts that these scenarios will have on major industries.

COVID-19

Potential economic scenarios and their impact

In all scenarios, the economy is expected to enter an initial period of contraction, with lead indicators of which of the subsequent recovery scenarios

is most likely for a given economy to be informed by a number of variables including: the strength of each government’s social distancing measures,

potential curative treatments and/or testing programs. The speed of recovery across all of these shapes will also be impacted by each government’s

fiscal policy and other government interventions (which can vary significantly by country) as we come out of this unprecedented time.

HighLow

V

W

Q1 20 Q2 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q3 21 Q4 21 Q2 22 Q4 22Q3 22Q1 22Q2 21Q3 20


The level of economic stimulus as a percentage of GDP varies

significantly across EMEIA

Economic stimulus packages ($b)

845

442 435413

219

3959

42 31 30 16 15 13 524 22 15 10

Ge

rman

y

Au

stria

Po

lan

d

Fra

nce

Italy

UK

Sp

ain

Po

rtug

al

Cze

chia

Sw

ed

en

Ka

za

khsta

n

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Gre

ece

Lith

ua

nia

Ru

ssia

Ne

the

rlan

ds

Tu

rke

y

Pledge as % of GDP

Debt as % of GDP

97686910161515221621

71493096861339957 21174603437 12029521134

4221.410

► As a general rule, larger European countries have committed the highest amounts (fiscal packages and bank guarantees) with respect to their GDPs.

► The exceptions to this rule are:

► Despite being around one-tenth of the size of the largest five countries by GDP, Czechia has committed €39b in stimulus funds, representing 16% of its GDP.

► The Netherlands has the sixth highest GDP, yet has committed funds of only c. €22b.

► The table below highlights that the scale of stimulus measures announced by each European country varies considerably and is not proportionate to the level of COVID transmission in each country.

Pledge between 5% and 10% of GDP

Note: 1. Potential long-term impact based on latest available public information as at 29 April 2020 and EY-Parthenon sector experience

as to what the potential long-term implications might be. However, given the rapidly evolving situation and the myriad factors affecting the

future, we cannot express any opinion on the extent to which the ultimate outcome will be in line with our indications.

Pledge between 5%

and 10% of GDP

Pledge greater than 10% of GDP

29 April 2020

As at


Policy responses across a selection of European countries

In the absence of a centralized EU policy response, European countries designed their own

stimulus packages. However, the responses are uneven across European countries. Almost all of

the policy packages have some levels of gaps in coverage for impacted companies.

Debt repayment holidays

Social security deferrals

Tax deferrals

State loan guarantees

Salary support

Corporate grants

Potential

policy

limitations

Headline

policies

n

y

y

y

n

y

Measures

could see the

budget deficit

rise to 7% of

GDP. No direct

salary support

measures.

€300b of

government

backing for

loans. Fiscal

stimulus for

workers and

businesses

worth €110b.

n

y

y

y

y

y

Loans backed

only 80%-90%

by state leave

large 10%-

20% of private

risk.

Passing a

€156b budget.

Economic

stabilization

fund (WSF)

created. KfW

loans up to

100%

guaranteed.

y

y

y

y

y

y

Squeezed

middle a

recognized

problem. Some

schemes have

delayed

implementation

.

£330b of

government-

backed loans

to SMEs. Will

pay 80% of

salary for

furloughed

workers.

y

y

n

n

y

y

y

Worst hit

European

country.

Already fiscally

constrained,

may require

European

intervention.

€400b fiscal

rescue

package.

Substantial

worker support

package.

Committed to

help Alitalia.

y

y

y

y

y

n

Have an

elderly

population but

depleted

health service.

No direct

corporate

grant policy.

€100b of state

loan

guarantees

aimed at

SMEs. €17b of

other fiscal

commitments.

y

About 14% of the population live below subsistence level and 65% already receive assistance. Lack of salary support may lead to greater poverty. Limiting exports will further economic slowdown.

$0.32b investment in health. Tax holidays and reductionsNullified or reduced import duties and limitation on exports.Interest rate subsidies for SMEs. New tax measures: 13% tax on deposit interest (balances over $12.9k) and 15% tax on dividend income remitted overseas.

y

y

y

y

y

n

The extend of

packages may

be too little.

Medium and

large

corporates are

not well

covered.

C. €15b for (i)

health

expenditure;

(ii) salary

support; (iii)

increased

guarantees;

(iv) additional

loans; and (v)

tax holidays

and deferrals.

€17b in

proposed

credit

guarantees

and micro

loans, 3-month

loan moratoria.

FranceGermany UKItaly Spain Russia

Guarantee %

Debt as % of GDP

Pledge as % of GDP

70%-90%

99%

13%

80%-100%

57%

21%

80%

86%

15%

90%

133%

22%

70%-80%

96%

15%

N/A

1.4%

11%

N/A

49%

10%

Poland

29 April 2020

As at





Sub-

segment Short term Middle to long term

COVID-19 impact

Short term Long term1

B2C fixed ► Factors such as remote working, school closures and

travel restrictions will result in increased data usage at

home, which will drive higher quality broadband

connectivity products in the short term as a

result.

► Accelerated app-based communication will further

cannibalize voice calls, offering opportunities to

partner with established and new OTT players –

sustained long term.

► Potential for upgrades to stick long term as

consumers realize value in higher quality broadband

connectivity.

► Some of the structural changes in remote working

will continue post-COVID-19 resulting in continued

strong demand for B2C fixed broadband (in particular

if similar subsequent crises occur).

1 1

B2C mobile ► Net impact is expected to be negative as

customers will rely more on fixed broadband

► Immediate increase in international calls will not offset

the reduction of roaming short term.

► Protection from lower usage of mobile data via

contract term unless on a pay-as-you-go contract.

► Economic downturn and redundancies may see

customers cut their spend and reduce their mobile

packages, which would only partially be offset by

increased usage.

► Longer-term impact will be broadly neutral to

positive as spending reverts back to pre-COVID-19

period; with some impact from less travel possible.

2 2

B2B fixed ► Lower use of leased lines, but an increase in traffic

flow from connections between data centers to homes

driving upgrades.

► Winners and losers will have a neutralizing effect

– insolvencies in SME space will offset increased

demand and capacity upgrades in others (e.g., online

retail, cloud services).

► Increased demand for support as companies

transition to tech-enabled model.

► Continued positive demand from tech-dependent

companies is expected.

► Increasing number of businesses will focus on

digital/online presence and offerings to adapt to

change in customer behavior .

► Acceleration of demand for Unified

Communications (UC) solutions including complete

migration from traditional to VoIP.

1 1

B2B mobile ► Similar to B2B fixed, some companies are expected

to increase spend on B2B mobile for their

employees to support remote working, while others

will cut down spending.

► Roaming revenue expected to drop due to travel

restrictions. No significant changes in other

revenue as mostly contracted.

► Potential structural shift to remote working may see

employers increase their work mobile spend, but

the impact is expected to be limited.

► Some mobile workloads are expected to be

replaced by UC solutions benefitting from a fixed

connectivity environment.

2 2

Hosting

services

► An increase in capacity demands as companies

grow adoption of the collaboration tools and UC

required for effective at-home working.

► Increased demand for server capacity will be

sustained as companies grow in adoption of digital

and UC solutions and remote working. 1 1

COVID-19: impact by sub-segment

T

1

2

4

3

Immediate impact for telecommunication companies will be a reduction in revenue from variable mobile charges due to reduced

international roaming and less out-of-home data usage, with spare home broadband network capacity able to deal with

demand during the day.

Massive and possibly sustained change in user behavior and accelerated rise of tech-enabled businesses will fuel the demand

for network capacity while shifting platforms will require a re-prioritization of expansion plans (e.g., 5G prioritized in residential

areas)

Key opportunities for telecommunication companies lie in the enablement of mass working from home, driving capacity upgrades

and hence revenue, and the accelerated transformation of traditional to digital business models across all sectors.

Key opportunities for hosting providers, particularly hyperscalers, range from the significant demand increase for hosting capacity

as businesses move their workforce to digital, working-from-home models – accelerating shift to cloud IT.

Telecommunications

Key issues

1 1

1

1 1

3

2

To benefit from the reinforced role in this new “digital normal,” telecommunication companies need to quickly adapt their

customer and product strategy, supported by a clear infrastructure strategy and M&A to accelerate the plans.5

2 1

32

2 1

29 April 2020

As at

Impact scale:1 2 3 4 5

Slightly

positive

Net

neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





Sub-


COVID-19 impact


B2B events ► Many tradeshows were canceled rather than re-

scheduled.

► Attendees expect a replacement of in-person

events with digital ones to sustain industry learning.

► Exhibitors and attendees of B2B events may develop

an expectation of more digital events and

learning, increasing opportunity for diversification of

revenue streams.

► Accelerated consolidation of smaller players who

will materially suffer from canceled events.

Sport, film

and

production

► Sporting events to be rescheduled or canceled,

with high loss of revenues, until players can be

cleared to play without contagion risk.

► Severe short-term disruption of cinema operations

due to social distancing, may drive widespread

insolvency and potential consolidation – with impact

proportional to length of lockdown.

► Production paused due to social distancing unless it

can be done “at-home” (talk shows), potential movie

releases on a pay-per-view basis.

► Auctions for future rights may be impacted as

broadcasters pass on current losses to sports rights

holders.

► Ticket holder safety at stadiums a major focus.

► Severe impact to sports if lockdown lasts long enough

to force abandoning of seasons (e.g., Premier

League, Champions League) rather than

rescheduling.

► Studios may further utilize new movie release

options such as pay-per-view.

► Step-change in technology adoption and

advancement of remote production and

collaboration solutions.

TV and

advertising

► Despite increased viewership, industry will

experience significant advertising budget cuts.

► Countermeasures will include cancellation of

productions and re-runs of already amortized

program inventory.

► Increased consumption of news content.

► Accelerated shift of viewing towards streaming.

► Operating models to evolve to incorporate more

flexibility and agility in ways of operating.

► Advertising budgets expected to rebound to pre-

crisis levels in the mid-term.

E-sports and

gaming

► Traditional sports leagues will increasingly use

videogames to maintain engagement with their

audiences.

► Cancellation of events will likely hit the P&L of e-

sport leagues due to high dependency on physical

events and missing licensing of TV rights.

► Step-change to have more cross-over between

sport and e-sports.

► Gaming industry will need to consider ways to

maintain new adopters of their products.

Supporting

technology

and B2B

information

► Supporting tech impact depends on performance of

customers; e.g., remote production is likely to benefit

while broadcasters for sport likely to be hit.

► B2B info largely protected due to long contract

lengths.

► Supporting tech has an opportunity to help clients

step-change as tech adoption increases, but

impacted by performance of customer base.

► B2B info potentially impacted by low renewals in

industries that are struggling.

M

The impact of COVID-19 is likely to vary significantly between different industry sub-sectors; with sub-sectors such as

e-sports and gaming seeing huge opportunities (although cancelled events might also affect e-sports leagues) while others (e.g.,

B2B events, cinema and theatre) face existential challenges.

Location- and event-based entertainment (sport, film, production) face huge short-term challenges, but high demand and a

resilient sector means bounce back should be possible – although contingent on consumer sentiment on mass gatherings

post-crisis and telegraphing of forward guidance by governments – with plenty of innovation in the meantime.

TV and advertising are expected to weather the storm; TV viewing should remain high despite scheduling gaps; advertising is

likely to experience significant budget cuts driving cancellations of productions and thus re-runs; and streamers benefitting

substantially but a key concern will be holding on to new users.

Media

2 1

5

In the immediate term, there is huge consumer demand for entertainment but substantial logistical challenges to create

content and run events, making digital key; studios may trial new windowing approaches (e.g., US studios currently experimenting

with directly releasing new movies via pay-per-view) that may disrupt the traditional cinema window.

B2B information and supporting technology will have mixed success depending on their exposure to end clients and underlying

performance of these sectors. Flexibility to pivot services toward successful sectors will be key.

5 43

Supporting tech

B2B information

2

31

2 3

31

2 3


Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage

4 2 3

2

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues

1

2

4

3

5






Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Horizontal

software

► Software focused on supply chain logistics and

remote working enablement will grow in

importance; however, infrastructure needed for new

business may have limited access. Long and

technical sales cycles will impede growth as face-

to-face interaction is limited.

► Enterprise focused: will be relatively resilient .

► SME focused: May struggle as SME death rates

grow and clients are tight on cash, particularly in a W-

shaped economic scenario where continued

government support is unknown.

► Increased focus on operational software as

customers review contingency plans for supply chain,

logistics and other business processes in potential

future crises.

► Potential consolidation of smaller players as PE

appetite for technology players returns.

► SMEs may be more cost-conscious coming out of the

crisis limiting SME-focused player growth.

Vertical

software

► Impact is highly dependent on the vertical served,

verticals such as leisure will incur significant damage

while health care and industrials are likely to be more

resilient. Long and technical sales cycles will impede

growth as face-to-face interaction is limited.

► Enterprise focused: will be relatively resilient.

► SME focused: May struggle as SME death rates

grow and clients are tight on cash, particularly in a W-

shaped economic scenario where continued

government support is unknown.

► Limited long-term impact.

► SMEs may be more cost-conscious coming out of the

crisis limiting SME-focused player growth.

► Potential reduction and consolidation of SME-focused

players.

Infrastructure

software

► Short-term impact will be relatively limited as

contracts are based on long-term cycles.

► Infrastructure will grow in importance as

companies grow need to support remote working.

► Continued growth in importance of IT resilience will

grow the willingness of companies to spend on good

IT infrastructure and, in turn, the software to support it.

Tech-enabled

services

► Impact is highly dependent on the vertical served.

Players serving industries such as education and

logistics will do well as demand rises.

► As demand for focus on e-commerce rises, players

enabling this channel will continue to perform well.

► Players serving the travel and leisure industry will

struggle as the industry “goes on hold” during lock-

down measures.

► Limited long-term impact.

► Acceleration of adoption of

e-commerce platforms and e-learning will boost

players serving these industries.

S

The technology sector will be reasonably resilient to the effects of COVID-19 given the high degree of contracted revenue and is

likely to experience post-crisis benefits in the middle to long term. However, short term, the crisis will result in delays in tech

investment as customers curtail spending – except for certain technologies that enable remote working.

The most pain will be felt by those with high exposure to the SME segment and/or more structurally challenged verticals (e.g., oil

and gas, restaurants); insolvencies and cash preservation will see increased customer churn and payment delays; and growth from

sales to new customers may be curtailed by structural constraints elsewhere (i.e., technician availability).

Beyond the initial operational impact of the crisis, technology providers will need to think through pricing models (e.g., moving to

more demand-based pricing) and forge new partnerships across the industry to provide products that are not just resilient but

improve efficiencies of remote workers.

Medium to long term the crisis will have a net positive impact on the technology sector due to an acceleration in shift to new

technologies (SaaS/cloud) and greater recognition of IT resilience requirements, reinforcing PE appetite for the sector.

Software

2 1

2

Increasing recognition of digital infrastructure as critical national infrastructure (CNI) and greater understanding of the need

to have better “IT resilience” among end users may spark additional investment, with governments expected to release regulation

on compliance for pandemic preparedness rules that can span across multiple areas of IT.

12

Enterprise

SME

243

2 1

2 1

Enterprise

SME

243

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues

1

2

4

3

5



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Brick-and-

mortar

retailers

► Retail sector will see an accelerated consolidation.

► Retailers will invest into more diversified supply

chains.

► The renewed focus on the local community and

solidarity will further drive the demand for regional

products and local retailers and put emphasis on

retailers’ role as a good citizen.

► Health and economic concerns will reduce

consumer confidence and the spend on non-

essential goods (apparel) and investment items

(consumer electronics).

► Acceleration of closure of brick-and-mortar as

retailers will review their portfolios. The structural

need for physical retail space will further diminish.

► Further and accelerated shift towards online and

multichannel.

► Retail with a pure distribution function (i.e., CE,

DIY) will see further margin and cost pressure.

► Retailers that provide added value through exclusive

ranges, outstanding customer service or a real

shopping experience will be rewarded by increased

customer loyalty and comfortable margins –

provided omnichannel excellence.

Digital

natives/direct

to consumer

(D2C)

► Like all online players, these will benefit from shift

toward online consumption.

► May be surprised by sudden demand increase and

face similar supply chain issues as traditional

retailers.

► In the battle for consumers D2C and vertical retail

models will continue to win.

Subscription

models

► Online offerings with subscription models (e.g.,

video streaming services) will profit from regulatory

restrictions and are likely to replace/challenge

traditional players beyond the crisis (e.g., cinemas).

► Subscription due to higher flexibility will gain in

popularity.

► Consumers’ focus will shift from material

possession toward experience, driving the

emergence of new consumption models (e.g., as-a-

service).

Marketplace/

platforms

► Marketplaces will see large increase in demand as

many high street retailers are closed.

► May prove to become more popular source for non-

discretionary products (e.g., groceries, cosmetics,

home cleaning).

► Retail will be dominated even more by the large

online platforms.

R Retail

1

Short term, the COVID crisis has impacted the retail sector severely. Food retailers are struggling to maintain the operation

under increased demand and new health regulations, while other segments like fashion and consumer electronics fight for

survival under the shut-down.

The COVID crisis will have a long-term impact on consumer behavior and retailers will need to adapt their proposition. Three

possible key trends will emerge: the demand for experience, the consciousness on well-being and the importance of the local

community.

In many segments the crisis will drive consolidation. Players with weak value propositions that have struggled before the crisis

will disappear, online players will continue to win and strong differentiated players will reap market shares.

Retailers will react on two axes: rigorously manage their cost position through operational improvement, adapting the store

portfolio etc. and on the other hand investing into service, experience and omnichannel.

The structural shift towards online during the crisis will persist and accelerate the long-term trend. Mostly affected will be sub-

sectors like grocery and drugstores with historically low online shares. Consumers will not return to their historic buying

patterns.

5 4

1

1 1

1 1

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Consumer,

non-

discretionary

products

► Increase in purchasing of non-discretionary items

such as food and beverage have surged as

consumers spend more time at home.

► Local/regional products will gain momentum,

quality aspects will become further important and

brand propositions around safety and reliability will

be honored more than in the past.

► Expectation of more packaged food products being

consumed at home due to restaurant closures and

working from home arrangements.

► Producers simplify the number of items but are

producing more of them as overall demand

increases.

► Acceleration of online ordering as consumers avoid

busy grocery stores.

► DIY products seeing limited impact as consumers

take on projects that require them to be at home.

► Long-term impact is likely to be positive as

consumers will probably continue cooking at home as

hesitance to eat out lingers and a desire to maintain

a “safe home base” continues.

► Packaged food will be impacted by profound shifts

in consumer behavior around meal occasions and

the role of in-home.

► Producers likely to return to wider number of SKUs

to capitalize on sustained at-home cooking and dining.

► Online ordering trends likely to continue but at a

slower pace.

► Personal care likely to accelerate trend toward a

natural look and focus on skincare and more

environmentally friendly products.

► Further acceleration of e-commerce along all

channels (D2C, pure play, click & collect) as well as

digitalization of consumer interactions.

Consumer,

discretionary

products

► Net impact negative as consumers seek to limit

spending due to economic uncertainty.

► Collapsed demand for consumer discretionary

products expected to recover slowly.

► Likely to continue to see slow recovery as

consumers bear economic hardships post-crisis

and seek to limit discretionary spending.

► Alcoholic beverages will be challenged as “social

distancing” might stay as a habit, and hence

consumption occasions might evolve.

CG

COVID-19 is impacting all consumer product companies, and after the crisis, consumers’ hygiene and health awareness will

remain significantly increased, anxiety about well-being and increasing skepticism to physical proximity will reshape the

consumption behavior.

Further acceleration of e-commerce along all channels (D2C, pure play, click and collect) as well as digitalization of consumer

interactions, local/regional products will gain momentum, quality aspects will become further important and brand

propositions around safety and reliability will be honored more than ever.

CP manufacturers need to overcome the transformation backlog, adapt their business and operating models and accelerate

the digitalization of their channel approach and consumer interaction. CP players can win through innovation and new business

models. Moving forward, consumers are much more open to going new ways to live safe.

CP manufacturers will need to review their portfolio to divest non-core businesses/brands and acquire strategically.

Recessions offer great chance for opportunistic M&A deals with innovative business models, which normally would not be

available or at higher valuations.

Consumer goods

1

3

2

Now is the time for consumer product (CP) players to re-position for post-COVID world, understand and address accelerated

trends in consumer behaviors and capture the new commercial opportunities that come with it; digital business models will

over-proportionally benefit. Suppliers must be reviewed and supply networks re-configured in the context of supply chain

localization.

4

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Pharma ► In Pharma, only limited changes are expected as

patients are typically not changing their behavior but

long-term oriented clinical trials might be affected.

► Sales of drugs and devices not associated with

treating COVID-19 with slowdown due to grounded

sales force and shifted prioritization.

► Volume increase is expected for many products

that might have expected efficacy on COVID-19

(HIV drugs, SARS vaccines, Contergan etc.) possibly

impacting stockage and manufacturing prioritization.

► Cost cutting and restructuring essential as

governments will have to save money due to high

costs of crisis management affecting budgets.

► Recurring sales from daily/ maintenance

prescriptions will stabilize revenues; however,

drug development will be delayed during the crisis

due the pause in new clinical trials and patient

recruitment.

► Distribution landscape will show trade loading

effects being afraid of shortages and stock outs.

► API manufacturing might see trend of

“nationalization” to reduce dependency shifting to

US or Europe as well as for systemic medical supplies

and drugs.

► Experience from previous downturns shows pharma

and MedTech sales achieve full recovery, driven by

underlying health needs.

MedTech/

diagnostics

► In MedTech/diagnostics many doctors/ hospitals

who are not involved in the treatment of corona

patients will see downturns of visits from non-severe

patients.

► There will be a marked uptick in telemedicine use,

with patients actively avoiding A&E and hospitals in

general for the duration of the crisis.

► In MedTech/diagnostics some downturn expected

for consumables and devices; however full recovery

in sales expected.

► Patients’ preferences will shift toward more

convenient and resilient ways of medical advice

pushing digital sales models/ways of patient-doctor

interaction.

► Decreasing sales during the first year for

MedTech/diagnostics is likely to be compensated in

the mid-to-long term.

► Increased adoption of telemedicine is expected

following a shift in patient and health system

acceptance during the crisis.

LS

Pharmaceutical and MedTech sales (excluding COVID-19-relevant products) will be impacted in the near term as greater

restrictions on sales teams’ ability to interact with prescribing clinicians and decision-makers. However, the bulk of existing pharma

sales will be less affected, particularly for chronic conditions on repeat prescriptions.

Clinical studies will be heavily impacted in many cases as trials are delayed or even cancelled. In the mid-to long-term, this might

affect launch dates, competitive situations, development pipelines and availability of drug supply.

Life Sciences

3

Forced ramp up in use of technology e.g., remote GP consultations may accelerate the historically slow adoption of

telemedicine; with pattern of behavior more established among patients post-crisis. The observed significant drop in A&E

attendances during the pandemic highlights the number of cases that could be managed through alternative routes.

2

3 2 1

With limited exposure to COVID-19 short-term effects, the life sciences sector, including temporary sub-sector shortcomings,

will have recovered after the crisis. The number of pharmaceutical and MedTech companies set to benefit through production

of COVID-19-related products and treatments will be small (e.g., repurposing treatment, diagnostic tests, disinfection).

Potential pharma supply chain issues in cases where manufacturing is concentrated in key markets e.g., China or India

(particularly the case for generic manufactures). Wholesaler stock and supply chain redundancy should mitigate severe industry-

wide shortages and “renationalization” of pharma manufacturing/API sourcing is likely to be observed.

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Commodity

mining

► Supply-side restrictions coming from production cut

and delayed investments in countries with significant

COVID-19 impact.

► Demand-side decline and commodity price

volatility.

► Being more of a commodity, mining business model

will be less impacted in the long term.

Suppliers to

metal and

mining

Industry

► Demand-side declines coupled with logistics and

supply chain disruption in countries with significant

COVID-19 impact.

► Domino effect on overcapacity as China re-opens.

► Suppliers to metals and mining industry will also

experience a short-term disruption, less of a long-

term impact.

Metals ► Demand-side declines, further complicated by

supply-side restrictions coming from factory closures

in countries with significant COVID-19 impact.

► Structural change in consuming industries due to

substitution.

► Metals will become more supply resilient, service-

focused and customer-centric.

MM Metals and mining

Digitize operations and supply chain: Digitalization and automation across the whole value chain will be accelerated to achieve a

new level of unmanned operations.

Grow flexibility in your network design: Investing in less capex-intensive and more flexible production facilities and reviewing

supply chain footprint for resilience by reshoring and diversifying supply base will become important.

Win on customer centricity: Offering digital customer services and solutions, engaging in joint R&D with clients, driving product

customization and developing strategic alliances with key customers will become critical to success.

Prepare for protracted recovery for 2021+: As demand slowly picks up and competition grows, strengthening customer

relationships by winning on service and long-term commitment and review of supply chain to hedge against potential disruption risks

as well as planning for different scenarios becomes important.

Protect the core in 2020: On the backdrop of demand and supply disruption protection of core operations, closing of inefficient

sites, avoiding supply disruption and liquidity issues, ensuring workforce safety and ability to work remotely is of utmost importance.

2

3

4

4

2

3

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

3

4

Next – strengthen the core and develop new revenue streams: Review supply chain to build resilience and proactively work

with the funding sources (e.g., banks, government) to return to the norm and fuel the future. Develop bespoke programs to support

key accounts. Watch for M&A opportunities. Rethink strategy to develop new revenue streams, accelerate digitization of services

(e.g., zero contact electricity supplier) and internal processes, re-evaluate investment portfolio.

Now – keep the lights on: Ensure safety of key assets, dispatching centers and employees’ health and manage short-term

liquidity. Cybersecurity becomes crucial. Reduce discretionary spend, review maintenance plans and investment portfolio to defer

Capex. Secure trading positions. Deploy cash collection incentives for residential customers and prepare for a potential second

wave domino effect as unemployment grows.

Challenge – Power and utilities (P&U) sector was hit by declining demand: Most affected by poor demand and price drops are

conventional generation and sales to large industrial customers and SMEs, while residential sales are confronted with reduced

cash collection. Low oil prices negatively impact electric vehicle (EV) sales. Further hit may come in the second wave as more

customers are impacted.

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Suppliers to

P&U industry

► Hardest hit subsector of conventional equipment

suppliers as many projects are deferred or canceled.

► Energy efficiency and sustainable solutions

suppliers also at risk due to low oil prices.

► Conventional suppliers will accelerate transition to

energy-as-a-service-based business model.

► Energy storage, decentralized energy and smart grids

suppliers will boom.

Generation ► Affected by demand-side and price drops

(especially peak load), fuel and power price

volatility, less on the supply side: shortage of

employees and spare parts for critical assets.

► Renewables are severely affected by low oil prices, if

not regulated.

► Accelerated transition toward decarbonization and

decentralization, e-storage, demand side

management, aggregator services, etc.

Transmission

and

distribution

► Less affected as a part of a regulated system, only if

exposed to sales to large industrial customers and

SMEs (high margin).

► Accelerated adoption of new revenue streams,

investments in EV infrastructure and transformation

into energy ecosystem.

Retail ► Positively affected by consumption rise by

households (low margin) but negatively by reduced

cash collection from residential customers and

SMEs.

► Accelerated deployment of green energy supply and

services, and digital energy management services

(B2B and B2C), building a customer-centric

ecosystem with third parties, etc.

PU Power and utilities

Beyond – lead the pathway to new energy system: Accelerate the pre-COVID trends toward decarbonization, decentralization

and digitalization in order to create more resilient, flexible, smart and agile energy system. Rethink market mechanisms to infuse

resilience. Invest in decarbonized energy, energy storage, EV infrastructure, smart T&D networks, peer-to-peer energy exchange,

integrated digital energy services, etc.

5

Renewable

Conventional

3

Distribution

Transmission

2

B2C

B2B

2

3

3

3 1

2

14

4

3

3

3

3

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

3

4

1

Next – reboot and move forward to strengthen core and refresh strategy: Be ready to reboot for higher operational activity

levels and for funding more capex as demand returns in 2021, potentially fueled by government stimuli. Be ready for M&A as deals

will be on the market. Strengthen core and accelerate digital for value and costs. Refresh your strategy for an over-supply world, as

one or combination of: “Low cost, low carbon resources” plus “captive customers” plus “agile assets.”

Now – deploy the survival toolkit to protect the business: Manage liquidity; reduce operational costs; renegotiate at-risk long-

term contracts; defer investment activity; get government support; manage surplus volumes; and of course, keep employees and

contractors safe and well. Repeat the 2014 playbook for upstream and OFS, but a new playbook is required for downstream and

liquid natural gas (LNG).

Challenge – oil and gas (O&G) sector “triple hit” by oil price plus COVID-19 plus oil outlook: Industry hard hit by a

combination of low oil price plus COVID-19 lockdown leading to low demand plus continued negative outlook on oil. Most affected

are upstream/shale and oil field services (OFS) players who need to deploy short-term survival toolkit and reinvent themselves mid-

and long-term. Most other sub-sectors impacted short-term as well.

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Upstream

and oil field

services

(OFS)

► These are the hardest hit sub-sectors.

► Upstream production levels reduced by 10% globally

to prop up prices at $30/bbl.

► In short term, drilling campaigns will be canceled

or severely reduced, most pre-FID projects paused or

deferred.

► OFS companies will immediately be impacted with

potentially up to 25% job losses in some markets.

► OFS firms will consolidate to remove spare

capacity.

► Increased demand for new workflows and

contracting models that fundamentally reduce

costs (e.g., digital platforms).

► Pure upstream companies face challenge of how to

diversify (with lower revenue to pay for it) - more

asset sales and vertical integration will need to

happen.

Midstream ► Storage tanks and oil tanker rates will outperform

as traders secure storage for surplus production.

► Falling power consumption of up to 20% has reduced

demand for pipeline gas and LNG, pushing down

prices and forcing renegotiations of contract terms.

► New LNG expansion projects paused.

► Overall reduction of up to 10% of global supply for

one year will require deleveraging and portfolio

changes for trading companies.

► LNG project cancellations and delays will require

capacity reduction in key component and

engineering suppliers.

► LNG prices will rise as demand returns.

Downstream ► Near-term collapse in market for jetfuel with flight

volumes down as much as 90%; transport fuels also

down by as much as 30%-50% depending on

markets; significant global refinery overcapacity of

10%-30%.

► Petchems demand down due to immediate

manufacturing sector contraction.

► Fuel retailers impacted by fuels and convenience

sales reduction.

► Refineries will recover with higher throughputs as

transport demand returns; lower overall volumes due

to economic fall-out; capital projects will be delayed.

► Petchems will benefit from greater investment when

feedstock prices are low, and from trend of

diversifying from fuels .

► Retail fuels sellers may benefit in the mid-term if

EV roll-out slows down; long-term retail value remains

under stress due to electrification of vehicle fleet.

Integrated oil

companies

► Sharp reduction in capital spending by IOCs of up

to 30% and reduction in cost base; increase in

decommissioning liabilities as assets become

uneconomic to produce; offshore operations under

stress.

► NOCs will defer capital and discretionary expenditure

while protecting local jobs.

► IOCs face challenge of how to fund and accelerate

response to decarbonization under lower oil and

gas prices.

► NOCs have significant need to accelerate changes

so governments can monetize their value earlier,

especially with increasing levels of government debt.

OG Oil and gas

Beyond – adapt to the new world of over-supply and decarbonization: Stakeholders expect diversification and decarbonization

of oil and gas companies, and a clear demonstration of progress. Therefore, companies need to define their future and articulate

clearly how they will get there over the decade in order to maintain investors, government, employee and public support for their

success and eventually to flex declining enterprise value and create superior long-term value.

Subsea and Surface

Oil Field Services (OFS)

Gas and LNG

4 2

Storage and

Transportation

3

4 3

Refining and jet fuel

4 2

Petrochem

3

Retail fuel

4 2

International oil

companies (IOC)

3

National oil companies

(NOC)

1

4

4

5

5

4

1

COVID-19 impact rather

positive, long-term disruptions

ahead due to EV

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Corporate

and

investment

banking (CIB)

► CIB to review their commitments depending on

sectors and counterparts, as well as PE financing.

► Redefinition of the CIB delivery model and clients

portfolios, as well as close monitoring of the

associated risks.

Retail and

SME banking

► Retail banking to be impacted by interruption of

commercial activities and increase of workload due

to clients financial distress.

► To perform everyday actions, online banking and

telephone touch-points will continue to increase in

popularity.

► In some geographies (notably Germany and Italy),

consolidation may arise.

Specialized

financial

services

► Sudden stop of all activities with physical retailers

drastically hitting the top line.

► Important decrease in consumption over 1 to 4

months in several countries impacting requirements

for financing solutions.

► Consumption to be impacted in the long-term due

to job- and revenue-loss during the crisis.

► People to increase their digital consumption

habits, leading to a larger share of “online” revenues.

Payments ► Sharp decrease in physical transactions versus

online noticed.

► Moderate to no impact on payments expected, but

consolidation ahead.

Wealth and

asset

management

► Massive movements in AuM to be anticipated due

to market contraction and clients withdrawals.

► Distressed situations for fragile and sub-scale

players expected.

► Investors increased fearfulness toward financial

markets, leading to welcome alternative investments

and new products.

► Increased CIR and slow recovery in AuM triggering

market consolidation.

Insurance ► Impacts on H&P and life insurance will vary

depending on the country, unit-linked, contracts to

be the most affected.

► P&C insurance to register a positive impact due to

decrease in claim rates (motor, home, etc.), offset

however by potential exclusion revisions and

drastic a drop in new business.

► Digital will be the key to increase stability and

operational performance.

► Strong requirement to increase 100%-online

sales/subscription.

► Impacts for shaky insurers from an investments

perspective, leading to failures.

► Slow recovery of the consumers confidence,

leading to delays in important purchases (homes,

cars, etc.).

FS

Impact on financial services will vary depending on the sub-sector

Impacts will vary depending on the nature of the business portfolio, with wealth and asset management (WAM), specialized

financial services (SFS) and SME banking to be drastically impacted in the short term.

Some players might require financial assistance

Less-performing players prior to the COVID-19 crisis will probably fail or be required to seek financial support.

Digital will be key

The COVID-19 crisis might be a good time to rapidly shift client relationship toward more digital/distant sales and communication.

Financial services

Operational transformation will be necessary

It might also be the time to rethink internal processes and reinforce the need for more remote work and management.

Large players might be faced with opportunities

Among major players, some will find themselves in a position of consolidating smaller players, others will look to refocus on their

core business by disposing of their non-core activities.

Life insurance

4 3

P&C insurance

3 2

5 3

5 4

34

23

5 3

H&P insurance

3 2

Asset Management

3 4

Wealth Management

Retail banking

5 4

SME banking

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Short term Middle to long term

COVID-19 impact


► Industrial product firms differently impacted by

COVID-19 depending on their end-customer

market exposure.

► IP companies supplying into automotive, commercial

vehicles, aero, shipping and oil and gas are most hurt

in the short term.

► A general demand increase is likely to be observed

once the automotive industry returns toward pre-

COVID-19 levels since many IP firms are directly or

indirectly exposed to the automotive industry.

► Other IP end-markets have been less impacted and

the demand will return to pre-COVID-19 levels as

quickly or quicker than GDP (e.g., construction).

► Several end-markets have seen steady or even

increasing demand throughout the COVID-19

crisis, e.g., the food industry and MedTech.

► Large scale supply-side disruption with OEMs and

Tier 1 suppliers struggling to keep their ecosystem

alive, supporting some players, facilitating

sales/mergers of others and lobbying governments to

support the industry.

► IP companies’ capex products will recover slower

than consumables due to customer reluctance to

invest before demand levels are clearly recovering.

► Markets like aerospace and oil and gas may take

longer to recover – and may return to lower

trajectories hurting those exposed to these sectors.

► Surviving suppliers will see significant

opportunities, including entering new markets,

gaining new customers and acquiring

competitors.

► Combining COVID-19 supply disruption with trade

conflicts, the trend toward regionalized supply and

dual sourcing will grow stronger, possibly leading to

a decrease in competition and increase in supplier

prices (net of raw material price changes).

► IP companies will need to strike a delicate balance

between increasing outsourcing levels for fixed costs

reductions, and decreasing the risk for future

supply disruptions.

► Portfolio optimization: divest of non-core assets to

increase focus and agility.

► Shift in business models from product

manufacturers to service providers including even

more focus on protecting the aftermarket business

and developing recurring income from long-term

contracts and licensing of software.

IP

Be active to protect your core and gain market share, e.g., by offering key customer targets innovative solutions, including

financing if you have a strong balance sheet. Keep pursuing already identified acquisition targets and be proactive for opportunities.

Once the immediate crisis is over a ramp-up period with below baseline demand provides an excellent opportunity to

fundamentally transform certain processes or factories to become much more digital but also serving customers remotely to

a larger extent than today.

Industrial products

Improve your ability to respond to volatility by measures such as customer journey extensions including aftermarket,

development of recurring revenue business models, fixed cost reductions, flexible working agreements and digitalization.

Since disruptions will be selective there is a high need for forecast accuracy and hands-on customer application support to

protect key customers and possibly win new business. Focus on battlefield customers where qualification is not needed.

4 2

Industrial products (IP) companies will be hit differently depending on their end-customer exposure and supply chain set-

ups. After the initial COVID-19 “black hole” there will be opportunities for those who manage their S&OP process well to win

new customers and have dry powder for acquisitions.

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

6

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Passenger

cars and

associated

retail,

financing and

mobility

services

► Deferred demand for cars will rebound along with

economic recovery and disposable household

income; however, financial stresses and lingering job

insecurity from the economic downturn may shift

demand toward more flexible ownership models

with leasing, car sharing schemes and on-demand

transport taking share from outright ownership.

Increased working from home will exacerbate the

pre-crisis negative trend in car demand.

Acceleration of the existing consumer trends and retail

response:

► Move toward new ownership/mobility models

contributes to sales stagnation and further mix shift

toward fleets – be it leasing, sharing or serving other

mobility models.

► Reduction of consumer retail channel reshapes the

retail landscape with fewer dealers more tightly linked

to OEMs, more online shopping and regulatory

changes in sales environment (esp. in key US

states).

► Quantum leap in online shopping increases vehicle

fleets (both large and contractor fleets) as well as

development of end-to-end logistics platforms to

manage the complexity of increased package delivery.

Players compete for share of the restructured value

chain.

Commercial

vehicles and

associated

logistics

platforms

► Commercial fleet: Deferred demand will largely

rebound along with economic recovery, enhanced for

light- and medium-duty delivery trucks by boost in

e-commerce.

► Commercial owner-operator segment: Rebound or

shift to fleet depending on government support,

default rate and price volatility in the used truck

segment.

Electric

vehicles

► Industry evolution driven by infrastructure roll-out

(e.g., BEV, FCEV) may slow as capital outlays are

redirected toward short-term crisis management –

regulatory requirements will need to recognize this.

► Reboot of EV roll-out as environmental issues rise

again to the forefront and infrastructure is seen as an

economic stimulus.

Supplier and

dealer

landscape

► Change of operating paradigms: For supply chain –

resilience over efficiency; for retail – more direct

sales with higher performing, streamlined

dealership networks.

► Scenario 1: Strong intervention and limping but

surviving supply chains – OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers

reboot and begin to transition to a more robust

supply chain model with more redundancy and

resilience. OEMs selectively support best dealer

partners, consolidating the traditional retail

network and driving customer engagement digital

tools, both directly and hand-in hand with remaining

dealers.

► Scenario 2: Supply chain wastelands – supply chains

fail taking OEMs/Tier 1 into distress.

Consolidation/failure at the highest level.

Bankruptcies, bail outs and consolidation follow.

Radical change in the supply chain (or not?):

► Ideally automotive players rebuild supply chains for

more redundancy and transparency; planning tools

for full supply chain analytics and scenario analysis

allow contingency planning.

► …Or once the crisis is past, the exigencies of short-

term pricing and profitability keep the low-cost, but

fragile supply chains of today – exposing the

industry to the next global disruption.

► New supply chain models may appear, e.g.,

industry bodies that support management of global,

multi-player supply chain risks (e.g., creation of an

“Automotive IMF” or creation of utilities).

A Automotive

Demand for vehicles, both passenger and commercial, is dropping precipitously initially. Passenger vehicle demand will remain

low through the crisis, but certain segments of commercial vehicles may rebound quickly (e.g., refrigerated delivery vehicles) due to

changing consumer behavior if there is supply.

After addressing the immediate needs of worker safety, orderly closure of production and protection of the supply ecosystem,

companies will need to turn to redesigning the supply chain and dealer networks to be more robust as well as taking advantage

of new digital tools for customer interaction.

The lean manufacturing lauded by the industry goes from a strength to the death knell for many suppliers already operating on

the thinnest of margins – the global ecosystem of production will rely on OEM, Tier 1 and governmental intervention – this is the

greatest threat to the industry.

Supply is also dropping precipitously both in reaction to the demand drop but also as supply chain disruption prevents

production even where there remains demand or demand recovers.

In parallel, the industry needs to pursue opportunities offered by the “new normal,” notably increased e-commerce (driving

vehicles, platforms, logistics businesses, etc.) and changes in passenger mobility, including new car ownership models and

acceleration of new mobility solutions.

Finally, the failure/distress of players in the market will create opportunities to acquire and build out capabilities and market

presence for those who have the financial strength and courage to invest.

5 3

Local commercial trucks

1

Long haul and other

commercial trucks

5 2

5

3 2

5 3 4

29 April 2020

As at

Key points

5



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





1

2

4

3

5

Sub-


COVID-19 impact


Private

residential

construction

► Stalling of private building project decisions due

to potentially adverse income and wealth effects and

related risk aversion as well as some disruption of

building sites as result of assembly restrictions.

► Return to previous growth trajectory (likely from a

somewhat lower base) with fairly stable to positive

outlook driven by long-term demand trends and

potential fiscal stimuli.

Commercial

construction

► Stable or slightly lower level of construction

volume driven by high level of demand uncertainty.

Ongoing projects not affected, some effect of closing

of building sites in some countries.

► Long-term demand trends depending on structural

impact of demand shocks and sub-sector,

currently hard to foresee.

► Mid term: potentially lower building volumes

depending on wider demand impact and potential

cost-motivated shift of employers to less use of

office space vs. home office.

► Hotels with lower levels of demand.

Industrial

construction

► Decrease in industrial construction due to

decreasing business expectation amid extreme

uncertainty as well as strong focus on liquidity

preservation.

► Mid-term construction activity expected to be

somewhat subdued due to demand effects of the

crisis and lower utilization.

► Very long-term: potentially positive impact from a

novel view on de-globalization requiring additional

regional production capacity.

Civil

engineering

► Mostly lower impact for ongoing projects. ► Mid to long-term two scenarios depending on

budget impacts and levels of indebtedness of

countries:

► Countries with sustainable level of debt will likely

invest in infrastructure to revive demand.

► Others will likely limit their spending.

Public

engineering

► Mostly lower impact for ongoing projects. ► Longer-term impact depending on countries debt

levels.

C

Longer-term implications on the construction industry are expected to be somewhat limited, barring spill-overs from credit

incidents into the banking system and a more severe demand impact from structural unemployment.

The construction sector is expected to be one of the sectors potentially spearheading a post-COVID rebound as fiscal

stimulus programs often comprise significant infrastructure investments.

On the supply side, potential COVID-19-related insolvencies may drive industry consolidation in the sector to some extent.

As construction industry supply chains are more local/regional than in most other industries major long-term impact on the

industrial footprint is not expected; however, we anticipate accelerated change in digitization and industrialization.

Construction

On the demand side very long-term beneficial demand trends (low interest rates, urbanization, excess demand for residential

housing) are expected to persist, Southern European countries may be slower to recover.

23

3 42

23

3 42

3 42

29 April 2020

As at

Key issues



Slightly

positive

Net

Neutral

Significant

damageModerate

damage

High

damage





EY-Parthenon connection points

Olivier Wolf

Ernst & Young LLP,

TMT

[email protected]

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Ernst & Young AB,

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Ernst & Young AB,

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Ernst & Young AB, Industrial

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Ernst & Young LLC,

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Ernst & Young Advisory,

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Leisure

[email protected]

Chehab Wahby

EY-Parthenon GmbH, Retail

and Consumer

[email protected]

Philippe Peters

Ernst & Young Advisory, Oil &

Gas

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]










Documents

COVID-19€¦ · customers cut their spend and reduce their mobile packages, which would only partially be offset by increased usage. Longer-term impact will be broadly neutral to