COUNTRY SOURCE VALIDITY

Burundi GTT Aug-Dec 2013

Central Africa Republic GTT Nov-Dec 2013

DRC GTT Dec-Jun 2013/14

Djibouti GTT Oct-Mar 2013/14

Eritrea N/A N/A

Ethiopia FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Kenya FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Rwanda FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Somalia FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

South Sudan FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Sudan FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Tanzania FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

Uganda FEWSNET Jan-Mar 2014

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Picture: South Sudanese refugees waiting in line to get food at the Dzaipi transit centre in Uganda

11

12

13

South Sudan: *The MUAC screening number while presented as percentage, does not mean that it represents the target population. This is because the screening activity is done through a convenience sampling but partners are trying their best to cover through screening more and more children within the camps. Programmatic implications of such results are (1) children identified as suffering from acute malnutrition are refereed to treatment facilities. (2) rates of acute malnutrition might be lower or higher in the target population (beyond the sample). In any case, risk of deterioration of the children nutritional status is real and increases rapidly 3,931 children screened for Malnutrition in Juba

Other Responses:

WASH: 87,500 displaced persons have access to 15 ltrs of safe water /person/day,

HEALTH: 32,846 displaced children have been vaccinated against measles; 32,079 children vaccinated against polio – IDP Camps- in Juba, Bentiu, Awerial

CAR – Key Assumptions for Currrent Classification (confirmed to have remained valid through January 2014)

Les hypothèses actuelles proviennent de la dernier analyse IPC:

Période du soudure (mars-juin) démarre tôt et être plus difficile que la normale

Ravitaillement verser ménage se videra plus tôt que d'habitude

Pas de possibilités de travail en milieu rural

La faible performance des marchés ruraux (certains ne fonction pas, ceux qui le font ont une faible fonction d'alimentation / volume du commerce)

approvisionnement alimentaire nationale restera faible (en raison de mauvaises récoltes)

Les importations alimentaires en provenance du Cameroun sera faible en raison de l'insécurité

Les marchés pour les cultures de rente (coton, café) et minéraux reste dysfonctionnel en raison de l'insécurité

les possibilités de travail et de revenus liés aux cultures de rente et les minéraux seront inexistants

La malnutrition aiguë <5 continuent - probablement en fonction de la morbidité entraînée par des changements de subsistance (de perturbation pour les pratiques de soins normales) et l'aggravation de l'environnement de la santé publique (plus de susceptibilité à la maladie transmissible dire ARI ou diarrhée)

16

17

18

The good rainfall in the eastern part of the region also came in the form of high intensity events like Puntland cyclone and Middle Shabelle floods.

19

20

21

22

23

Sorghum prices continued to increase atypically across most reference markets in Sudan due to below average November to January harvest, and exacerbated by high production and marketing costs. However, sorghum prices declined typically across most markets in Ethiopia and southern Somalia due increasing supplies from the start or ongoing harvest

Sorghum prices continued to increase unseasonably by nine to 19 percent across most reference markets between November and December instead of typically declining. This is attributed to reduced supplies as a result of below normal November to January harvest in the main producing regions of Gadarif, Blue Nile and White Nile States of central and eastern Sudan. In addition, higher sorghum prices have also been supported by high costs of production and marketing stemming from high inflation and depreciation of the local currency.

Sorghum and millet prices will likely increase atypically between January and March due to tight supplies as a result of below average production. The high prices are expected to be reinforced by high marketing costs attributable to high inflation and depreciating local currency. Household grain stocks are expected to diminish earlier than usual in February/March rather than May/June resulting in high market demand and concomitant steep rise in prices in the third quarter of 2014.

Prices in the northern markets of South Sudan are expected to trend higher in the first half of 2014.

Outlook: Sudan: Sorghum and millet prices will likely increase atypically between January and March due to tight supplies as a result of below average production. The high prices are expected to be reinforced by high marketing costs attributable to high inflation and depreciating local currency. Household grain stocks are expected to diminish earlier than usual in February/March rather than May/June resulting in high market demand and concomitant steep rise in prices in the third quarter of 2014.

Somalia: Both sorghum and maize prices are expected to decline seasonally in January with start of harvest through to February at the end of harvest. However, the decline in prices is expected to be mitigated by anticipated below average harvest and prices will probably rise earlier than usual as household and traders stocks diminish towards the April to June main agricultural lean season. The prices of imported staple food commodities including rice will likely increase seasonally between May and August due to limited shipping services during the monsoon season off the coast.

Ethiopia: Staple grain prices are expected to typically trend downwards between January and March with increasing market supply from the ongoing October to January harvest.

24

Maize prices in Rwanda remained typically stable due to imminent start of January to February harvest, while the prices declined typically in the same period across markets in Kenya and Uganda due to increased supply from the ongoing harvest. Maize prices increased seasonally in southern Somalia at the peak of the secondary November to January lean season, and accentuated by expected below average lower January to February (Deyr) harvest. Wholesale maize prices remained atypically stable or increased marginally across most markets in Tanzania following above average July to August harvest especially in the southern highlands. Staple food commodity prices were stable in Djibouti.

Outlook: Uganda: The prices of staple grains, beans and tubers are expected to decline seasonally in January as a result of increased supply from the ongoing December to January harvest and then start increasing gradually in February. The eruption of conflict in South Sudan will probably reduce staple food commodity export from Uganda, exacerbating downward trend in prices in the northern collection markets of Lira and Gulu. Kenya: Maize prices are anticipated to decline seasonally between January and March in most urban markets, and remain stable across most pastoral markets due to increasing inflow of maize from the long rains harvest. However the decline in prices will likely be moderated and shortened by below average July to January (long rains) and February to March (short rains) harvest. Wholesale maize prices are expected to seasonably trend upwards from February in the main source markets including Eldoret due to increased demand from other retail markets.

Rwanda: Staple food prices are expected to decline typically between January and March with the start of the January to February harvest. However the decline in prices will likely be mitigated by below average production due to poor rainfall performance, and localized storm damage on cooking banana plantations.

Tanzania: Staple food prices are expected to remain atypically stable or increase gradually across most markets in Tanzania between January and March due to availability of surplus food stocks. Nevertheless increased demand in Kenya following below average harvest will likely exert upward pressure on maize and rice prices in the northern and lake region collection markets of Arusha and Mwanza.

25

26

MAIN FACTORS GUIDING PROGRAMME OR RESPONSE OPTIONS IN 2013

April – June Long rains in Eastern Sector – performed well but still production 10-15% below average due to delayed inputs and MLND disease (although MoA still not clear on impact)

June – Sept rains in Northern sector – Ethiopia average production, Sudan below average production due to delayed onset with short cropping season, South Sudan prices of maize currently high (spike July/Aug)

Oct – Dec rains in the Eastern Sector - Delayed and erratic onset of short rains in the Eastern Horn by 1-2 dekads (10-20 days)

Leads to late planting, especially in marginal SE areas of Kenya (no start) and less than 15% emergence on most of southern and central Somalia, Rwand and Burundi replanting due to false start, “true” Horn – floods and tropical cyclone – largely beneficial

Have had 3 consecutive good seasons – usually look towards the second failed rainy season for concern

Situation

Rainfall amount and distribution was adequate for rangeland but marginal crops did not get to maturity

29

Compared to 2010/2011 actual – not as bad

Herd Size: 100% Excess Livestock Mortality: Camel 10%, Cattle 70%, Shoats 30%

Milk Production: Camel 10%, Cattle 0%, Shoats 10%.

Crop Production: 10% Food Prices: 200% Livestock Prices: 50%

Other sources of income: no change

Food aid/cash transfer not included in scenario to see deficit before intervention

Can help calculate the transfer requirements

See if HHs in different wealth groups can cope without aid

30

Coping included expanding on firewood & charcoal sales for both LZ. Pastoral poor sale of assets to cover deficit

Peri-urban looks worse off as they have access to more aid and depend on it more (34% compared to 66%) – these show calculations without aid.

Peri-urban looks worse as depend on market for all food sources, as both groups do not own livestock they depend solely on the market for their food source. Peri-urban poor and middle grow some maize (2-3% annual food needs). Very similar profiles

31

Coping included expanding on firewood & charcoal sales & sale of assets

32

33

35

36

37