Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought:a preliminary assessment

Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3; Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3; Mitchell, A1

1Global Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford, 3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTEC-Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra

Earth System Science, 2010Edinburgh

Counting the costs of the 2005 Amazon drought:a preliminary assessment

Mandar Trivedi1, Anderson, L2; Queiroz, J3; Aragao, L4; Meir, P5; Marengo, J6; Young, C3; Mitchell, A1

1Global Canopy Programme, 2University of Oxford, 3Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, 4Exeter University, 5University of Edinburgh, 6CPTEC-Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

©Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra

Earth System Science, 2010Edinburgh

Outline of talk

• Background of project

• Context of 2005 drought

• Impacts on socio-ecological system

• REDD+: opportunity for mitigation-adaptation

Background

• Valuing Rainforests as Eco-utilities• Capacity-building: Ecosystem Services for Poverty

Alleviation (ESPA)

• PI: Patrick Meir, U. Edinburgh• Future risks: Deforestation and climate change• Current vulnerability: Dry season impacts important to

socio-ecological system• Mitigation-adaptation: REDD+

Drought impacts in general• 1997-98 El Niño: global impacts

• Amazonian drought resistance/resilience– Roots access deep water (Nepstad et al. 2007; Meir et al.

2009)– ‘Green-up’ (Saleska et al. 2007)– High tree mortality in 2005 (Phillips et al. 2009)

• “One-two-punch”:– 2002-03 El Niño– 2005 Atlantic warming with dry season rainfall reduction

Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)

2005 Amazon drought

• El Niño: eastern Amazonia

• 2005: southwestern Amazonia

• El Niño:– Pacific influence– typically wet season

• 2005:– Atlantic influence– dry season

Zeng et al. (ERL, 2008)

Impacts on aspects of the socio-ecological system

• Fire and forest function • Transport: flights• Health: waterborne diseases, pulmonary disease• Agriculture• Fisheries

Fires

• More than twice as frequent as the average over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)

• Fire leakage:– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)– Close to forest edges– Dry forest more likely to burn

Fires• More than twice as frequent as the average

over previous 7 years (Zeng et al. 2008)• Fire leakage:

– Human ignition sources (pasture clearance)– Close to forest edges– Dry forest more likely to burn

Acre

Acre State

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

Transport (flights)

• Smoke from fires affected visibility

Flights

Transport (river)

Photo: Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra

Carbon• Tree mortality in plots, Acre

(Phillips et al., 2009)

• Forest & pasture burnt area (Shimabukuro et al., 2009)

• Multiplied by biomass loss (Kaufman et al., 1998)

• Converted to C loss

Acre State

• Dead trees & burnt standing forest in Acre:

• 2.4 TgC

Health• Hospital admissions:

– Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do SUS (SIH/SUS)

• Waterborne diseases:– typhoid fever, cholera and diarrhoea

• Pulmonary diseases:– asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

(COPD) and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI)

Waterborne diseaseCosts of hospital treatment, Acre

Pulmonary diseaseCosts of hospital treatment, Acre State

Agriculture

• Annual censuses of permanent and temporary crops• Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)

Agriculture

Extractive fisheries

© AP

Extractive fisheries

• Major livelihood assets of ribeirinho• Major source of protein• Data from IBAMA (Brazilian Institute of Environment

and Renewable Natural Resources• Losses in four states: BRL$ 13.3 m

• Aquaculture unaffected

Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Rondônia

4.000.000,00

6.500.000,00

9.000.000,00

11.500.000,00

14.000.000,00

16.500.000,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Val

ue (R

$ of

200

7)

Rondôniamedia

Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Acre

6.000.000,00

6.400.000,00

6.800.000,00

7.200.000,00

7.600.000,00

8.000.000,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Val

ue (R

$ of

200

7)

Acre

media

Extractive fisheriesExtractive Continental Fishery - Mato Grosso

15.000.000,00

16.400.000,00

17.800.000,00

19.200.000,00

20.600.000,00

22.000.000,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Val

ue (R

$ of

200

7)

Mato Grossomedia

Summary

• Large costs associated with drought:– Crops, especially manioc (staple crop)– Fires/forest function (large carbon emissions)– Extractive fisheries but not aquaculture– Health– Transport (flights)

Summary

• Impact on poor communities hard to quantify• Lack of data:

– non-marketed goods (crops & fish)– self-treated diseases– river transport - underpins economy– school closures– livestock losses– hydropower

Baka people, Cameroon. Source: Helveta

• Incentives to change behaviour & conserve forests

• Community-based monitoring

• Maintain local knowledge:– ecosystem services– weather– wellbeing

• Mitigation-Adaptation opportunity

REDD+

Thank you

© L. Anderson

Funded by Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme