Counterinsurgency and the

Education of the GEOINT

Professional

Todd S. BacastowProfessor of Practice for Geospatial Intelligence

John A. Dutton e-Education InstituteThe Pennsylvania State University

August 5, 2008

U.S. Army Spc. Roger Rich visits with an Iraqi child during a stop in a village near the city of Musayyib, Iraq, while on a civil affairs mission, June 12, 2005. Rich is assigned to Scout Platoon, Headquarters and Headquarters Company, part of the 155th Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Navy photo by Chief Petty Officer Edward G. Martens.

“Counterinsurgency is military, paramilitary, political, economic, psychological, and civic actions taken by a government to defeat insurgency.”

Joint Pub 1-02/ FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5, p. 1-1

“Irregular Warfare (IR), Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW), Limited Wars, or whatever other moniker the army has put on counterinsurgency (COIN), peacekeeping, peace-enforcement, etc., have traditionally received short shrift from the military education system….”

Insurgency/Counterinsurgency: Does the Army “Get It?”, Kevin Reynolds, Feb 2007

COIN 101 - Principles

It’s about competing for the loyalty of the people

Firepower is not the answer

The goal is to provide a secure environment for reforms and development

Cut the insurgent off from support of the people

If the insurgents obtain sanctuary from nearby nations the challenge is greatly increased

Iraq, Jan. 30, 2005: An Iraqi man shows off his ink-stained finger after casting his ballot at a polling station in Jisr Diala on the southern outskirts of Baghdad, Iraq. (AP Wide World Photo/John Moore).

COIN 101 - Phases

Source: RAND, 2008

COIN 101 – Intelligence

• Identifies opportunities and constraints

• Collects on the enemy’s “industrial footprint”

• Goal is to help destroy the enemy force

• Situational templates with data pushed to the analyst

• Standards for communicating

Conventional conflic

t

• Identifies who and why• Collects on the population• Goal is to correlate, track, and

apprehend• Highly varied needs with

locally developed data• Ad hoc information exchange

with many• Is law enforcement-like

COIN

Source: RAND, 2008

What’s education?

• Education is concerned with the development of the intellect

• Training deals with learning specific skills

• Education is a personal activity• Training is developing skills for

others

“the exploitation and

analysis of

imagery and

geospatial

information to describ

e, assess,

and visually depict

physical

features and

geographically referen

ced activitie

s on the

Earth.”

“a means

of visualising the instanc

e, situatio

n or forecasting the same.”

What’s geospatial intelligence?

Title 10 U.S. Code §467

Brigadier Nick Rigbyformer Director of Intelligencefor the UK Ministry of DefenseG

EO

INT

Geo

spat

ial

Inte

llig

ence

Dr. John Snow (1813-1858), a legendary figure in understanding and resolving a social problem through the use of spatial analysis.

Geospatial intelligence

Cholera outbreak in Soho, England, in 1854

• 2001 - Developing the Geospatial Workforce

• 2003 - Geographic Information Science and Technology Body of Knowledge (GISTBoK)

• 2007 - US Geospatial Intelligence Foundation Accreditation Standards

No adequate definition since the field is too

new

Geospatial intelligence professional

Broad competency areas

Technical Situational

Analytical Personal

After:Building the Geospatial WorkforceCyndi H. Gaudet, Heather M. Annulis, and Jon C. CarrURISA Journal • Vol. 15, No. 1 • 2003

PSU Geospatial Intelligence Program

GEOG 882 Geographic Foundations of Geospatial Intelligence

GEOG 883 Remote Sensing for the Geospatial Intelligence Professional

GEOG 884 Geographic Information Systems for the Geospatial Intelligence Professional

IST 885Introduction to Multi-Sensor Data Fusion

GEOG 889 Virtual Field Exercise for the Geospatial Intelligence Professional

PSU vs ABCA Report

Many of Penn State’s educational objectives miss the needs of geospatial intelligence professional the COIN domain.

Current• Awareness

Needed• Evaluating

the host country legal issues associated with data collection and human rights

# 10 - Legal

Current• Collect data

for manipulation

Needed• Protocols

to collect, process, safeguard, and evaluate spatial data as evidence

# 9 - Geospatial Forensics

Current• National/

international cartographic standards

Needed• Preparing

the professional for effective cross cultural/organizational communications of geospatial information

# 8 - Language/Communications

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/rkkaww2/maps/keymap/chapter2_1.pdf

Soviet era map symbols

Current• Understandin

g the US intelligence community

Needed• Working as a

team of nations, global NGOs, and foreign agencies

• Customer relationship management

# 7 – Organizational

map of NATO PRTs in Afghanistan, valid as at 20 April 2007. [23]A full-size version of this map is available at: http://www.nato.int/ISAF/media/pdf/placemat_isaf.pdf

Current• Approached

in an ad hoc manner

Needed• Preparation

to find, evaluate, and use unstructured text, hard and softcopy maps, atlases, gazetteers, human terrain data (cultural and economic),etc

# 6 – Working with open source

Current• Data about

the open-physical environment

• Applying known data sources

• Understanding data issues

• Applying existing formats

Needed• Data about

the human and urban environment

• Creating SDI-like data organizations

• Analyzing data quality

• Creating data structures

# 5 – Working with data

Iraqi survey data collectors speak with a village elder during the course of the first phase of the Landmine Impact Survey. http: www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/pix/b/91052.htm

Current• Overlay• Buffering• Containment• Image

processing

Needed• Cluster

analysis• Network

analysis• Diffusion

modeling• Trend

analysis• Predictive

modeling/gaming

# 4 – Add to the toolset

A Social Network Analysis of the Iranian Government, [November, 2001]

Current• Awareness

Needed• Evaluating

an ethical issues with respect to data collection and analytical practice

# 3 – Ethics education

Current• Awareness

Needed• Evaluating

the impact of culture on data collection and analytic results

# 2 – Culture

Fairfax County Police,www.fairfaxcounty.gov/police/police31.htm

Current• Workflows

Needed• Structured

methods to help overcome human cognitive limitations or pitfalls

# 1 – Geospatial analytic thinking

We recommend the following GIS workflow:

1. Define the problem or scenario.2. Identify the deliverables (mostly maps) needed to support the decision.3. Identify, collect, organize, and examine the data needed to address the problem.4. Document your work:

a. Create a process summary.b. Document your map.c. Set the environments.5. Prepare your data.6. Create a basemap.7. Perform your analysis.8. Produce the deliverables, draw conclusions, and present your results.

Our World GIS EducationLevel 4: Making Spatial Decisions, ESRI

Geospatial analytic thinking

• The geospatial professional should:– Understand the cognitive biases and fallacies– Apply appropriate geospatial techniques for

creating and testing hypothesis • rational choice theory• utility theory• game theory, etc.

– Evaluate temporal-spatial trend analysis and spatial correlation

– Apply forecasting methods in the geospatial domain

• decision tree analysis• analytic hierarchy process• alternative scenarios/futures• Delphi technique• Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction

(LAMP)

Summary

Physical Human

Open terrain Closed terrain

Data Evidence

Top down Bottom up

Individual Team

Descriptive Predictive

Workflows Analytic process

“We must cease confusing mastery of software commands with attaining a grasp of critical intellectual concepts.”

Duane F. Marble, ArcNews, 1998

U.S. Army Maj. Robert Holbert takes notes as he talks and drinks tea with local school and Andar Special Needs School administrators during a cordon and search of Nani, Afghanistan, on June 2, 2007. Holbert is attached to the Human Terrain Team, 4th Brigade Combat Team.   DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Michael L. Casteel, U.S. Army. (Released)

Key References

• Counterinsurgency Warfare, Galula, 1964

• The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation, Lind, 1989

• Field Manual 100-7, Decisive Force: The Army In Theater Operations, 1995

• Military Operations Other Than War Briefing Slides and Script, J7, undated

• The Information Edge: Imagery Intelligence and geospatial Information in an Evolving National Security Environment, NIMA, 2000

• Developing the Geospatial Workforce, Gaudet, 2001

• GIS & T Body of Knowledge, DiBiase, 2003

• Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife, Nagl, 2005

• Army-Marine Corps Counter Insurgency Field Manual, January 2007

• ABBA Report, 2007

• USGIF Accreditation Standards, 2007

• A Conceptual Framework for Facilitating Geospatial Thinking, Golledge, 2008

• Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgency, RAND, 2008

• International Association for Intelligence Education Conference, June 2008

• The Future of Intelligence Co-operation between Military Forces and Private Security Companies based on Lessons Learned in Iraq"  Strachan-Morris, Mar 2008

• Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques, Presentation, IAFIE Conference, June 2008

• Insurgency/Counter-Insurgency: Does the U.S. Army "Get It," Reynolds, June 2008