CONTENTS 2016

4 From The Publisher

6 Countdown History

10 Top 20 & All Americans

14 Juvenile Stakes Results ‘15

20 Top BRIS Figures ‘15

24 The Big List – ’16 Hopefuls

38 Beat the Host Preview

40 It’s the Horse, Of CourseRead why the people behind the horse matter less than you think.

44 May MadnessEvery lineup needs a series of role players - horse racing included.

50 Triple Crown Nearly Tripledfor Oaklawn Park American Pharoah delivered, but, oh, what could have been!

58 Baltimore Has BecomeTitle Town – Preakness Why the middle jewel has shined brightest of all.

62 An Unbridled Legacy1990 Derby winner continues to impact the trail decades later.

70 Season of ChalkFavorites are ruling the roost.

76 Road to the Crown 2016Prep schedule and full profile of every significant race all season.

146 AppendixBRIS past performances for all Derby winners 2003-2015.

2

2015 Triple Crown Winner

American Pharoah

141st PREAKNESS® STAKESMAY 21, 2016

Preakness.com @PreaknessStakes /Preakness

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From the Publisher

The third Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual comes literally on the heels of history. American Pharoah took us places a year ago few other horses could. He made hearts race and stopped time. He forced the sports world to take notice and the general public as well. Elementary school principals stopped me daily to ask “Can he do it?” – and to pick up some wagers and souvenirs for them.

American Pharoah transcended what we do here in Countdown. Yes, it took the 10th year of our online scouting report to finally count down all the way to zero. But, oh, it was worth the wait!

I have been blessed to cover the Triple Crown races professionally since 1993. I thought the feeling I had in 2004 just prior to Birdstone catching Smarty Jones would never be topped. And even though American Pharoah wasn’t “my”horse like Smarty Jones was, when he struck the wire in front at Belmont Park, he became everyone’s horse for the ages. Iwas proud to have been there, and excited to see what’s next. - JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2016

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers/Analysts Candice Hare

Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers NYRA / Adam Coglianese

NYRA / Susie Raisher Woodbine / Michael Burns

Keeneland / Z Churchill Downs / Reed Palmer Oaklawn / Coady Photography MD Jockey Club / Jim McCue

Golden Gate Fields / Vassar Photo Tampa Bay Downs / SV Photos

Santa Anita / Benoit Photos Fair Grounds / Lou Hodges

Sunland Park / Coady Photography Gulfstream Park / Bob Coglianese Hawthorne / Four Footed Fotos

4

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5

11th season begins for Countdown to the Crown

By Jeremy Plonk

Maybe it was just fitting that the season 10 finale of Countdown to the the Crown actually ended with the crown being fitted to American Pharoah.

After nearly 250 editions of the weekly scouting report, the sweep was realized. It took a very special horse to complete it, and American Pharoah no doubt belongs in the pantheon of racing’s greatest 3-year-olds. We have scouted more than 3,000 sophomores in the history of Countdown, and he stands alone at the top.

So, who’s next? That’s our goal as the second decade of the series begins this year. The discovery of something new, finding the next big thing or simply putting what we’ve seen among the Triple Crown prospects into a sensible context long has been my desired

goal. And for each feeling of mission accomplished, a new week comes along and we get to hit the reset button and do it all over again. That ability to spawn new enthusiasm is what makes the leadup to the Triple Crown so special. You don’t get that same feeling moving from $5,000claimer to $5,000 claimer each Thursday.

Countdown to the Crown is detailed, and I make no apologies for that. Those who’ve followed the decade-long series have read more than 1 million words about the top prospects. Handicapping horse races is an intellectual exercise, and the drive-by society not interested in putting in the effort

6

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won’t ever be turned on to it. It’s never been my desire to make things watered down so more folks might stumble into a short-term interest.

Countdown is written for serious horseplayers and followers of the game’s true regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl. It’s the one time of year where things are defined, goals are common and we can envision players and schedules with a championship sense.

This marks the third year that I’ve taken full control of the direction and distribution of Countdown to the Crown. I’ve bounced Countdown around on various websites since its debut in 2006.

Each time, the decision was mine when to move, and for strategic reasons; first and foremost: where I thought it could best benefit you, the reader and bettor.

Horseplayerdaily.com (2006-‘07) ESPN.com (2008-‘11) DRF.com (2012-‘13) Countdowntothecrown.com

(2014-present)

Countdown runs from the first Friday in January through the Belmont Stakes, about 22 weeks

per year on average. Two years ago, we added coverage of Canada’s prestigious Queen’s Plate trail and main event. This expanded the series into the first weekend in July.

Countdown is a week-long exercise that begins each Monday with a review of the charts, videos and coverage of the previous week’s 3-year-old races. Also each Monday, I set out the weekly calendar and plot each and every 3-year-old maiden special weight, allowance and stakes race on my weekly worksheets that soon start to look like a Chinese takeout menu.

By the end of the day on Tuesday, I’ve written all the race reviews and recaps and put half of the scouting report to bed.

With Wednesday’s entries for Saturday released, my work begins in handicapping each of the races for not only prospects, but also potential plays. We don’t put this kind of effort in just for verbage.

By Thursday night, my handi-capping is complete; and on Friday each week I put the finishing touches in with my updated Top 20 before the official release.

– JP

8

http://www.keenelandselect.com

Jeremy Plonk’s Top 20 - Updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

NYQUIST Trainer: Doug O’Neill Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) San Vicente-Florida Derby the prep plan.

AMIS GIZMO Trainer: Josie Carroll Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) May be best 2YO via Canada in C2C era.

MOR SPIRIT Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Dortmund path had Lewis up next.

GIFT BOX Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Fountain of Youth seems logical target.

SWIPE Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Has fared better at SA than Exaggerator.

CONQUEST BIG E Trainer: Mark Casse Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Holy Bull or Sam Davis make logical sense.

BRODY’S CAUSE Trainer: Dale Romans Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Expect FG raids due to closing style.

GUN RUNNER Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Lecomte-Risen Star likely return spots.

EXAGGERATOR Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Likely travels more than Swipe on trail.

FLEXIBILITY Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Belmont Park (NY) Appears barn’s NY winter warrior to start.

MOHAYMEN Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Leads the Fountain of Youth hopefuls.

SYNCHRONY Trainer: Donnie K. Von Hemel Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Smarty Jones or Southwest to open 2016.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER Trainer: Dominic Schettino Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Gulfstream and Wood Mem’l figure in plans.

SAIL AHOY Trainer: Shug McGaughey Winter Home: Payson Park (Fla.) Barn loves to open 3YOs in GP allowances.

DREFONG Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) May be barn’s Oaklawn road warrior.

SHAGAF Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Unlimited options in NY/FL from N1X & up.

AIROFORCE Trainer: Mark Casse Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) I’d like to see Tampa-Blue Grass path.

STRADIVARI Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Beach Downs (Fla.) 1st-level GP allowance TAP’s MO w/ these.

RAFTING Trainer: Graham Motion Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) GP or Tam programs fit the bill for riser.

SEMPER FORTIS Trainer: Doug O’Neill Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Will play where Nyquist, Ralis et al do not.

10

Pedigrees to Follow

(Listed Alphabetically)

Destin Dolphus Emotionless Finnegan General MacArthur Good Genes Ishaq (pictured/inside) Mohaymen Morse Code Never So FewSail Ahoy Semper Fortis Shore Leave Stradivari Synchrony Ziconic

Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer half-brother to Rachel Alexandra Shamardal-Unbridled Elaine half-brother to Bodemeister War Front-Imagine half-brother to Awesome Feather dam full-sister to Smarty Jones Tapit-Justwhistledixie half-brother to Honor Code Galileo-Rags to Richeshalf-bro to Pine Island, Point of Entry half-brother to Carpe Diem half-brother to Orb Medglia d’Oro-Bending Strings Tapit-Brownie Points Tapit-Zenyatta

11

COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN ALL-AMERICAN TEAMS

Jeremy Plonk selects his Super High 5 lists of this year’s best – from the horses to the humans!

All-Established Team (proven form at age 2) Nyquist Swipe Mohaymen Mor Spirit Brody’s Cause

Honorable Mention: Exaggerator, Amis Gizmo, Airoforce

All-Potential Team (sleepers you might not have heard of yet) Rafting Drefong Synchrony Shagaf Stradivari

Honorable Mention: Knights Key, Secret Passage, Awesome Speed, Greatest Game.

All-Small Barn Team (hailing from unheralded trainers) Exaggerator & Swipe

(both Keith Desormeaux) Greenpointcrusader

(Dominic Schettino) Ishaq (Efren Loza) Amis Gizmo (Josie Carroll) Awesome Speed (Alan Goldberg)

Honorable Mention: Knights Key (Steve Hobby), Dressed In Hermes (Janet Armstrong), Mana Strike (Frank Lucarelli), Pirellone (Ralph Nicks), Zapperini (Greg Foley), Smokey Image (Greg James).

All-American Prep Trainers (load up your fantasy team) Steve Asmussen Bob Baffert Chad Brown Kiaran McLaughlin Doug O’Neill

Honorable Mention: Mark Casse, Todd Pletcher, Keith Desormeaux, Jerry Hollendorfer, Dale Romans, Donnie K. Von Hemel, Shug McGaughey.

12

http://www.horseplayernow.com

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS DATE RACE TRK STAKES WINNER SIRE

5-Jun TREMONT BEL COCKED AND LOADED COLONEL JOHN

20-Jun MOUNTAIN TOP FUTURITY RUI DIABOLICAL KING DIABOLICAL

20-Jun VICTORIA WO HOLLYWOOD HIDEAWAY ZENSATIONAL

21-Jun SANTA ANITA JUVENILE SA FOUND MONEY SQUARE EDDIE

27-Jun BASHFORD MANOR CD HE'S COMIN IN HOT EARLY FLYER

5-Jul CLARENDON WO BELIVEAU WHERE'S THE RING

5-Jul IOWA STALLION FUTURITY PRM CORNFED PASS RUSH

5-Jul BIRDONTHEWIRE GP FRANCESCO BLUE LEROISDESANIMAUX

5-Jul EVERETT NEVIN PLN SMOKEY IMAGE SOUTHERN IMAGE

11-Jul D. S. SHINE YOUNG FUT EVD CALE'S GOLD GOLD TRIBUTE

11-Jul TTA SALES FUTURITY LS TEXAS CHROME GRASSHOPPER

12-Jul HOOVER BTP KIOSK'S CAUSE NOBLE CAUSEWAY

12-Jul SUMMER JUVENILE CHAMP LRC SWIPE BIRDSTONE

18-Jul ROCKVILLE CENTRE BEL MANIPULATED MALIBU MOON

18-Jul PRAIRIE GOLD JUVENILE PRM STORMATION STORMY ATLANTIC

19-Jul EMERALD EXPRESS EMD BARKLEY MUNNINGS

25-Jul EDMONTON JUVENILE NP HOLD THE GIANT HOLD ME BACK

25-Jul COLIN WO RIKER INCLUDE

25-Jul SANFORD SAR UNCLE VINNY UNCLE MO

26-Jul RIO GRANDE SENOR FUT RUI STORM WARRIOR WEATHER WARNING

1-Aug MOUNTAINEER JUVENILE MNR BULLET GONE ASTRAY GONE ASTRAY

3-Aug BRITISH COL NURSERY HST STANZ IN COMMAND SECOND IN COMMAND

5-Aug GRADUATION DMR MRAZEK SQUARE EDDIE

7-Aug PRAIRIE MDS JUV MILE PRM PINNACLE PEAK YES IT'S TRUE

8-Aug FLORIDA SIRE DR. FAGER GP DREAM OF ME HIGH COTTON

8-Aug LOUISIANA CUP JUVENILE LAD ICY GENTLEMAN YANKEE GENTLEMAN

8-Aug CLEVELAND KINDERGARTEN TDN MASTER MICK TWO STEP SALSA

8-Aug TWO YEAR OLD SALES NP MODERNOTIS STEPHANOTIS

8-Aug BEST PAL DMR NYQUIST UNCLE MO

8-Aug IOWA CRADLE PRM ONE FINE DREAM WOKE UP DREAMIN

9-Aug TYRO MTH EXPECTED RULER LEROIDESANIMAUX

15-Aug W.T.B.A. LADS EMD MACH ONE RULES HARBOR THE GOLD

15-Aug VANDAL WO RUTH LESS BLUE GIANT GIZMO

16-Aug SARATOGA SPECIAL SAR EXAGGERATOR CURLIN

16-Aug CAVONNIER JUVENILE SR SMOKEY IMAGE SOUTHERN IMAGE

16-Aug GOLD RUSH FUTURITY ARP TEXAS CHROME GRASSHOPPER

18-Aug TOTAH SRP MR. DIGGER QUINTON'S GOLD

21-Aug NEW WESTMINSTER HST STANZ IN COMMAND SECOND IN COMMAND

21-Aug SCHENECTADY SAR TOO DISCREET DISCREET CAT

22-Aug ARLINGTON-WASH FUT AP SHOGOOD NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ

28-Aug FUNNY CIDE SAR SUDDEN SURPRISE GIANT SURPRISE

29-Aug EVANGELINE DOWNS STARS EVD ZACKAROONEY K ONE KING

14

http://www.brisnet.com

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS

2-Sep SIMCOE WO AMIS GIZMO (above) GIANT GIZMO

2-Sep WITH ANTICIPATION SAR AZAR SCAT DADDY

4-Sep I'M SMOKIN DMR SMOKEY IMAGE SOUTHERN IMAGE

5-Sep CALUMET FARM JUVENILE KD CAJUN SCHILL ARTIE SCHILLER

5-Sep DEL MAR JUVENILE TURF DMR HOLLYWOOD DON TAPIT

5-Sep BIRDCATCHER NP KRISTOFFERSON ROCK HARD TEN

5-Sep SWYNFORD WO RIKER INCLUDE

5-Sep FLORIDA SIRE AFFIRMED GP TRIBAL DRAMA BIG DRAMA

6-Sep MARK MCDERMOTT PID BALK STREET BOSS

6-Sep NORTHERN LIGHTS FUT CBY SMOOTH CHIRAZ CHITOZ

6-Sep SAPLING MTH SUNNY RIDGE HOLY BULL

7-Sep CTHS SALES HST FEAR OF THE CAT ABRAAJ

7-Sep DEL MAR FUTURITY DMR NYQUIST UNCLE MO

7-Sep HOPEFUL SAR RALIS SQUARE EDDIE

12-Sep IROQUOIS CD COCKED AND LOADED COLONEL JOHN

12-Sep SUMMER WO CONQUEST DADDYO SCAT DADDY

12-Sep LAUREL FUTURITY LRL FORMAL SUMMATION IN SUMMATION

12-Sep TEXAS STALLION RET HE'S COMIN IN HOT EARLY FLYER

12-Sep LOYALTY BTP MY PARDNER CAL BIG ATLANTIC

16

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 12-Sep FIRST STATE DASH DEL ONEPOINTTWENTYONE E DUBAI

12-Sep LOUISIANA STALLION LAD OUR RAPIDASH HALF OURS

12-Sep SHAKOPEE JUVENILE CBY STORMATION STORMY ATLANTIC

12-Sep SUNDAY SILENCE LAD UNCLE BRENNIE UNCLE MO

13-Sep CAPTAIN CONDO EMD MACH ONE RULES HARBOR THE GOLD

13-Sep CONTENDER LRC MT VEEDER GHOSTZAPPER

18-Sep ASPIRANT FL LOVE THAT JAZZ NOT FOR LOVE

19-Sep ALBERTA PREMIER'S FUT NP VICTORY DAY EXHI

20-Sep JACK DIAMOND FUTURITY HST POWER CORRUPT STORM VICTORY

20-Sep BARRETTS JUVENILE LRC TOEWS ON ICE ARCHARCHARCH

25-Sep MANZANO ALB COOLIDGE EL MIRAGE

26-Sep PILGRIM BEL ISOTHERM LONHRO

26-Sep FRONTRUNNER SA NYQUIST UNCLE MO

27-Sep BULL PAGE WO AMIS GIZMO GIANT GIZMO

27-Sep KIP DEVILLE RP BRING IT ON DUDE MUNNINGS

27-Sep GOTTSTEIN FUTURITY EMD GOLD RUSH DANCER PRIVATE GOLD

27-Sep NWSS CAHILL ROAD EMD MACH ONE RULES HARBOR THE GOLD

27-Sep CAMINO REAL FUTURITY ALB STORMIN THE JEWELS ATTILA'S STORM

27-Sep BERTRAM F. BONGARD BEL SUDDEN SURPRISE GIANT SURPRISE

30-Sep CROWN AMBASSADOR IND DERBY EXPRESS UNBRIDLED EXPRESS

30-Sep HILLSDALE IND JUSTICE FOR THEMOB LANTANA MOB

3-Oct BREEDERS' FUTURITY KEE BRODY'S CAUSE (below) GIANT'S CAUSEWAY

17

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 3-Oct EL JOVEN RET CASH BONUS CORINTHIAN

3-Oct FLORIDA SIRE IN REALITY GP FELLOWSHIP AWESOME OF COURSE

3-Oct ARMED FORCES GP GOLDEN PIRATE FLASHSTORM

3-Oct CHAMPAGNE BEL GREENPOINTCRUSADER BERNARDINI

4-Oct BOURBON KEE AIROFORCE COLONEL JOHN

4-Oct GREY WO RIKER INCLUDE

6-Oct FITZ DIXON, JR. MEMORIAL PID BALK STREET BOSS

10-Oct VINCENT MOSCARELLI BC CT BULLETS FEVER FIBER SONDE

10-Oct ZUMA BEACH SA DRESSED IN HERMES HAT TRICK

10-Oct JUVENILE TDN UNBRIDLED TRICK SONGANDAPRAYER

11-Oct CUP AND SAUCER WO CONQUEST ENFORCER INTO MISCHIEF

12-Oct ASCOT GRADUATION HST CRAZY PROPHET ROSBERG

12-Oct GOVERNOR'S CUP ZIA TEXAS CHROME GRASSHOPPER

16-Oct OKLAHOMA CLASSICS JUV RP BRING IT ON DUDE MUNNINGS

17-Oct FUTURITY BEL ANNUAL REPORT HARLAN'S HOLIDAY

17-Oct MD MILLION NURSERY LSL CORVUS DANCE WITH RAVENS

17-Oct NEW YORK BREEDERS' FUT FL DR. SHANE FREUD

18-Oct SPEAKEASY SA TOEWS ON ICE ARCHARCHARCH

24-Oct CANADIAN JUVENILE NP AWESOME SLATE SUMMER BIRD

24-Oct JEAN LAFITTE DED FOREVAMO UNCLE MO

24-Oct SLEEPY HOLLOW BEL GET JETS SCAT DADDY

30-Oct BC JUVENILE TURF KEE HIT IT A BOMB WAR FRONT

30-Oct AWAD BEL MOUNTAIN MUSIC MAN BLUEGRASS CAT

30-Oct GOLDEN STATE JUVENILE DMR SMOKEY IMAGE SOUTHERN IMAGE

31-Oct TRI-STATE FUTURITY CT BULLETS FEVER FIBER SONDE

31-Oct INDIANA FUTURITY IND DERBY EXPRESS UNBRIDLED EXPRESS

31-Oct BC JUVENILE KEE NYQUIST UNCLE MO

31-Oct JUVENILE DIRT SPRINT KEE SHEIKH OF SHEIKS DISCREETLY MINE

1-Nov NM CUP JUVENILE CHAMP ZIA BACK SEAT HERO DIABOLICAL

1-Nov STREET SENSE CD MO TOM UNCLE TOM

4-Nov FROST KING WO AMIS GIZMO GIANT GIZMO

4-Nov NASHUA AQU MOHAYMEN TAPIT

6-Nov CLEVER TREVOR RP SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS MINESHAFT

7-Nov JUVENILE SPRINT GP LI'L MEATBALL GRAEME HALL

7-Nov JUVENILE TURF GP LITTLE NICK V. COLONEL JOHN

8-Nov CORONATION FUTURITY WO SHAKHIMAT LONHRO

14-Nov JAMES F. LEWIS III LRL AWESOME SPEED AWESOME AGAIN

14-Nov BOB HOPE DMR TOEWS ON ICE ARCHARCHARCH

15-Nov CHRISTOPHER ELSER MEM’L PHA BIG LOUIE D STORMY ATLANTIC

21-Nov DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT DED EXAGGERATOR CURLIN

21-Nov LOUISIANA LEGACY DED SEA VOW PRIVATE VOW

21-Nov NOTEBOOK AQU SUDDEN SURPRISE GIANT SURPRISE

25-Nov EDDY COUNTY ZIA GOLD BOUNDRY QUINTON'S GOLD

18

2015 JUVENILE STAKES RESULTS 27-Nov KING'S SWAN AQU JAN'S RESERVE READY'S IMAGE

27-Nov DON MCNEILL RP ROYAL LION KITALPHA

28-Nov KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB CD AIROFORCE (below) COLONEL JOHN

28-Nov BUFFALO MAN GP FULL SALUTE SPEIGHTSTOWN

28-Nov REMSEN AQU MOHAYMEN TAPIT

28-Nov SMOOTH AIR GP RAFTING TAPIT

28-Nov PULPIT GP SWAGGER JAGGER CROWN OF THORNS

28-Nov KINGARVIE WO AMIS GIZMO GIANT GIZMO

29-Nov DISPLAY WO DON'T BE SO SALTY TIZ WONDERFUL

29-Nov CECIL B. DEMILLE DMR DRESSED IN HERMES HAT TRICK

5-Dec PENNSYLVANIA NURSERY PHA BIRD OF TREY BIRDSTONE

5-Dec ARIZONA BREEDERS' FUT TUP COOLIDGE EL MIRAGE

5-Dec GOLD RUSH GG MANA STRIKE PAPA CLEM

5-Dec JOSHUA RADOSEVICH PHA MY PARDNER CAL BIG ATLANTIC

5-Dec MARYLANDER LRL VORTICITY DISTORTED HUMOR

12-Dec KING GLORIOUS LRC FOUND MONEY SQUARE EDDIE

12-Dec JIM EDGAR ILLINOIS FUT HAW RICHIE THE BULL BENNY THE BULL

12-Dec LA CHAMPIONS DAY JUV FG SEA VOW PRIVATE VOW

13-Dec SPRINGBOARD MILE RP DISCREETNESS DISCREET CAT

19

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS

OF 2015 JUVENILES

HORSE: SEX: RATING: TRACK: DATE: Dst.: Srfc:

Morning Fire C 105 PRX 10/26/2015 6 D

Krews Pass C 105 CPW 7/26/2015 4.5 D

Onepointtwentyone C 104 DEL 9/12/2015 5.5 D

Behrnik's Bank F 103 PEN 11/25/2015 6 D

Sunny Ridge G 103 DED 11/21/2015 8.5 D

Exaggerator C 103 DED 11/21/2015 8.5 D

Mohaymen C 102 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D

Songbird F 102 SA 9/26/2015 8.5 D

Smokey Image C 102 DMR 9/4/2015 6 D

Nyquist C 102 DMR 8/8/2015 6.5 D

High Legend F 102 HP 7/24/2015 4 D

Songbird F 102 KEE 10/31/2015 8.5 D

Cathryn Sophia F 102 LRL 12/5/2015 7 D

Danzing Candy C 101 SA 12/26/2015 7 D

Bird of Trey C 100 PRX 10/26/2015 6 D

Young Brian C 100 DMR 8/8/2015 6.5 D

Big Louie D C 100 PRX 11/15/2015 6.5 D

Off the Tracks F 100 SAR 7/24/2015 6 D

Flexibility C 100 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D

Shagaf C 99 AQU 11/22/2015 8 D

He's Comin in Hot G 99 RET 9/12/2015 6 D

Full Salute C 99 PRX 9/26/2015 6.5 D

Bird of Trey C 99 PRX 12/5/2015 7 D

Kandoo F 99 GP 7/18/2015 4.5 D

Gift Box C 99 AQU 11/28/2015 9 D

Toews On Ice C 99 LRC 9/20/2015 6.5 D

Cathryn Sophia F 99 PRX 10/30/2015 6 D

20

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS

OF 2015 JUVENILES

Carina Mia F 98 KEE 10/29/2015 6.5 D

Catch a Glimpse F 98 WO 9/12/2015 8 T

Ralis C 98 SAR 9/7/2015 7 D

Bird of Trey C 98 PRX 9/26/2015 6.5 D

Land Over Sea F 97 SA 9/26/2015 8.5 D

Awesome Banner C 97 GP 6/5/2015 4.5 D

Ballet Diva F 97 GP 7/5/2015 5.5 D

Blameitonthelaw C 97 DMR 8/2/2015 5.5 D

Greenpointcrusader C 97 BEL 10/3/2015 8 D

Bravura C 97 RET 9/12/2015 6 D

Full Salute C 97 GPW 11/28/2015 6 D

Harlan Punch C 97 DED 11/21/2015 8.5 D

Songbird F 97 DMR 9/5/2015 7 D

Swipe C 97 KEE 10/31/2015 8.5 D

Nyquist C 97 KEE 10/31/2015 8.5 D

Championofthenile C 97 SAR 9/4/2015 6.5 D

Ishaq C 96 TAM 11/28/2015 5.5 D

Matt King Coal C 96 BEL 10/29/2015 8 D Mountain Music Man C 96 BEL 10/30/2015 8 T

Call the Colonel C 96 KEE 10/15/2015 7 D

Rally Cry C 96 GP 12/26/2015 8 D

Epic Journey G 96 TAM 12/19/2015 6 D

Cat Tree C 96 GPW 11/28/2015 6 D

Nyquist C 96 SA 9/26/2015 8.5 D

Hit It a Bomb C 96 KEE 10/30/2015 8 T

Mr. Coker C 96 SA 12/26/2015 7 D

Gift Box C 96 BEL 10/3/2015 8.5 D

Awesome Speed C 96 LRL 11/14/2015 6 D

21

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS

OF 2015 JUVENILES

Airoforce C 96 CD 11/28/2015 8.5 D

Dr Blarney G 96 SUF 10/31/2015 5.5 D

Street Vision C 96 SA 9/27/2015 6.5 D

Eighth Wonder F 96 PRX 11/15/2015 6.5 D

Carina Mia F 96 CD 11/28/2015 8.5 D

Just Wicked F 96 SAR 8/15/2015 6.5 D

Toews On Ice C 96 DMR 11/14/2015 7 D

Formal Summation C 96 GPW 11/28/2015 6 D

Uncle Walter C 96 KEE 10/15/2015 7 D

Drefong C 96 DMR 11/14/2015 6 D

Who's Out C 96 DMR 8/29/2015 6.5 D

Pirellone C 96 GPW 11/28/2015 6 D

Mor Spirit R 96 LRC 12/19/2015 8.5 D

Airoforce C 96 KEE 10/30/2015 8 T

Shakhimat C 96 WO 11/8/2015 9 A

Dancie F 96 GP 7/18/2015 4.5 D

Constellation F 96 AQU 11/26/2015 6 D

Island Saint F 96 GP 12/11/2015 6 D

Matt King Coal C 96 BEL 10/3/2015 8.5 D

Found Money C 95 DMR 9/4/2015 6 D

Get Jets C 95 BEL 9/27/2015 7 D

Mrazek C 95 DMR 8/5/2015 5.5 D

Epic Journey G 95 KEE 10/15/2015 7 D

Mt Veeder C 95 LRC 9/13/2015 6 D

Libreta F 95 BEL 9/27/2015 6.5 D

Twirling Tiger G 95 DMR 11/26/2015 8 D

Belvoir Bay (GB) F 95 SA 12/27/2015 8 T

Swipe C 95 SA 9/26/2015 8.5 D

22

FASTEST SPEED RATINGS

OF 2015 JUVENILES

Texas Chrome C 95 RET 9/12/2015 6 D

Annie's Candy C 95 SA 6/5/2015 5 D

Smokey Image C 95 DMR 10/30/2015 7 D

Behrnik's Bank F 95 PEN 11/4/2015 6 D

Never Gone South C 95 LRL 11/14/2015 6 D

Pretty N Cool F 95 DMR 7/19/2015 5 D

Rachel's Valentina F 95 KEE 10/31/2015 8.5 D

Birchwood (IRE) C 95 KEE 10/30/2015 8 T

Amis Gizmo C 95 WO 11/4/2015 7 A

Get Jets C 95 BEL 10/24/2015 8 D

Airoforce C 95 KD 9/5/2015 6 T

Sudden Surprise C 95 BEL 9/27/2015 7 D

Black Ops G 95 CD 11/28/2015 8.5 D

Sugar Buzz G 95 DMR 11/26/2015 8 D

Stays in Vegas F 95 SA 10/10/2015 8 T

Manhattan Dan C 95 SAR 8/19/2015 5.5 T

Riker C 95 WO 7/25/2015 6 A

Nyquist C 95 SA 6/5/2015 5 D

Amira J F 95 AP 7/3/2015 5 A

Zulu C 95 GP 12/5/2015 6 D

Forever Darling F 95 SA 9/26/2015 6.5 D

Cards of Stone G 95 AQU 12/6/2015 8 D

Brody's Cause C 95 KEE 10/3/2015 8.5 D

Banree F 95 SAR 7/24/2015 6 D

23

Contenders * Connections * Pedigrees * Winter Book Odds

First-ever EXCLUSIVE star ratings for each!

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Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

Horse Odds Trainer Sire Stars Jeremy Plonk’s Notables ABERCORN 250 Gold Brooks ‘n Down ** Route tested in FSS at GPW. ADRIENNE'S WARRIOR 150 Nihei Warrior’s Reward * Out since Aug. GP debut win.ADVENTIST 175 Gyarmati Any Given Saturday ** Dam ½ to Flag Down; Aqu MSW. AIR FORCE BLUE 100 O’Brien War Front *** Irish G1 winning 2YO w/ genes. AIROFORCE 20 Casse Colonel John ***** Fast dirt surface big hurdle left. AIR VICE MARSHAL 200 O’Brien War Front ** ½ to G1 sprint star Contested. AIRMAN'S CREED 225 Lukas Distorted Humor ** Flanders’ grandson to OP MSWs. ALGENON 300 Kasmerski Aragorn * Hard-knocking NoCal 2YO.ALLABOUTACTION 300 Hollendorfer Candy Ride ** Full-bro Looking Cool (IA Derby). ALL WORLD** 80 Pletcher Curlin ** Rookie with some PBD buzz. AMAZON STORM 300 Asmussen Primal Storm * Working at FG; June Indy win.AMERICAN DUBAI 200 Richards E Dubai * 6F debut winner CD fall MSW.AMIS GIZMO 65 J. Carroll Giant Gizmo ***** Canadian star can play in US. ANNALS OF TIME 250 C. Brown Temple City ** Turf genes; Aqu 1M-T debut win. ANNIE'S CANDY 225 Miller Twirling Candy ** Stakes-placed, bred for sprints. ANNUAL REPORT 60 McLaughlin Harlan’s Holiday *** Futurity winner mulligan at CD? ARABIAN LEOPARD 175 Baffert Scat Daddy ** Modest genes; took 5x to score. ARCATURE 150 S. Callaghan Archarcharch * Out since Aug. 1M-T debut win.ASTROLOGIST 200 Albertrani Discreet Cat * NY-bred turf sprint MSW victor.AVAST MATEY 225 Nicks Birdstone * Edged Pletcher in Dec. GP MSW.AWESOME SLATE 275 Rycroft Summer Bird * Canadian Juv win at Northlands.AWESOME SLEW 150 Plesa Awesome Again * AWOL since Sanford 4th at Spa.AWESOME SPEED 200 Goldberg Awesome Again *** Lrl’s Lewis winner bred route.

AYE AYE CAPTAIN 200 Day-Phillips Old Forester * Kingarvie 2nd a Qn’s Plate-type.AYYOH 350 C. Lynch Hard Spun * Mid-Atl sprinter out since Oct.AZAR 250 Pletcher Scat Daddy *** Top turfer … maybe for Spiral? BANDWIDTH 100 Catalano Mineshaft ** Out since Kee, decent damside. BARKLEY 275 H. Belvoir Munnings * Away since July Emd stakes win.BATTERY 150 Pletcher Bernardini ** GPW MSW route win; sprint dam BATTLE TAP 125 Asmussen Smart Strike *** CD victor deserves pass RP mud. BELIVEAU 175 Casse Where’s The Ring * Early 2YO WO dash stakes force.BIG LOUIE D 300 John Servis Stormy Atlantic ** Prx stakes winner at Palm Mds. BIRCHWOOD 175 Fahey Dark Angel ** BC Juvy Turf 3rd bred all grass. BIRD OF TREY 150 John Servis Birdstone *** PA Nursery champ wants more. BLACK OPS 225 Richards Hard Spun ** Solid CD MSW route win + ped.

25

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

BLAMEITON BROOKLYN 175 Schettino Blame * Out since Spa debut 2nd; route?

BLAMEITONTHELAW 175 Sadler Blame **** Capable of breakout SA effort.

BONDURANT 150 Wilkes War Front *** Key race turfer at CD and Kee.

BRING IT ON DUDE 275 Trout Munnings ** Sharp OK-bred, but route at OP?

BRODY'S CAUSE 22 Romans Giant’s Causeway ***** Kee victory among best of ’15.

BUTTERFLY DANCE 350 Pierce Awesome Again ** Cup and Saucer 2nd on WO lawn.

CAJUN SCHILL 300 Kaplan Artie Schiller ** Turfer out since KD Juvy score.

CALE'S GOLD 400 Broberg Gold Tribute * Shine Young winner sprint-only.

CALL TO HONOR 350 Pinchin High Cotton * Couldn’t hold speed in FSS route.

CAMELOT KITTEN 275 C. Brown Kitten’s Joy ** Bourbon runner-up a Spiral shot.

CANADA 300 S. Callaghan Giant’s Causeway ** Well-bred SA MSW-T grad.

CARINA MIA (F) 150 Mott Malibu Moon *** Star filly aimed at Oaks path.

CASTLE 225 Dunham Slew’s Tiznow * Cal-bred AWOL since May debut.

CAT TREE 225 Kobiskie Discreet Cat * Early season sprint-type 3YO.

CATAPULT 200 C. Brown Kitten’s Joy * Oct. Bel MSW-T debut winner.

CELESTIAL INSIGHT (F) 300 Ward Scat Daddy * Sharp 1M TP ALW winner in Dec.

CHAMPIONOFTHENILE 125 L. Rice Pioneerof The Nile * NYB stakes-type out since Nov.

CHARMING INDY 225 Schettino Girolamo * Came to hand late fall vs. NYBs.

CHERRY WINE 200 Romans Paddy O’Prado ** Freaked on wet track CD fall.

COCKED AND LOADED 75 Rivelli Colonel John *** Better-than-seems 5th BC Juvy.

COCO IS LOCO Rodriguez Macho Uno ** NYB debut win impressed turf.

CODE WARRIOR (F) 300 Badilla Society’s Chairman * Dominant NoCal filly sprinter.

COLLECTED 250 Baffert City Zip ** Future appears as a turf miler.

COMICAS 200 bin Suroor Distorted Humor * Full bro to ’15 soph Wisecracker.

CONDO KING 200 Rodriguez Tiz Wonderful * Sprinter broke through in 3rd try.

CONNECT 225 C. Brown Curlin * Debut 3rd to Condo King at Big A.

CONQUEST BIG E 45 Casse Tapit **** BC too much too soon; a talent.

CONQUEST DADDYO 150 Casse Scat Daddy *** Strong turfer; grandson T-Gulch.

CONQUEST ENFORCER 125 Casse Into Mischief ** Broke mdn in WO turf stakes.

CONQUEST EXPRESSO 225 Casse Munnings ** Must answer 2-turn question.

CONQUEST HARLEQUIN 150 Casse Harlan’s Holiday * Absent since June debut CD 3rd.

CONQUEST NITRO 400 Casse High Cotton ** Couldn’t match toughies at Spa.

CONQUEST TWISTER 225 Casse Twirling Candy ** Coronation Fut 2nd now in Fla.

CONQUEST WINDYCITY 100 Casse Tiznow *** Out since Kee win; well-bred.

COOLIDGE 400 Schnell El Mirage * Western Canada/Arizona player.

CORNFED 300 Ashford Pass Rush * Iowa-bred SW out since Aug.

26

http://www.xpressbet.com

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

CRIMSON VALOR 350 Ritchey Summer Bird * Del MSW nibbler out of action.DAMASCUS ROAD 250 Casse Bellamy Road * No match for ‘Big E’ in CD ALW.

DAN THE GO TO MAN 350 Kenneally Smoke Glacken ** Kee sprint winner w/ distance ? DANZING CANDY Sise Twirling Candy ** Strong 7F MSW win SA 12/26. DELTA PRINCE 150 Street Cry ** Rookie o/o turfy Delta Princess. DESERVED 150 Mott Flatter * Our since Bel MSW 2nd in Sept.DESTIN 100 Pletcher Giant's Causeway *** Mama route star; 2nd GP ALW. DEVILS INFORMER 250 Puype Informed * Away since Aug Dmr debut win.D'FUNNYTHING 300 Asmussen D'Funnybone * NY-bred with all sprint genes.DIPLODOCUS 250 Baltas Sky Mesa * No factor in 2 west coast MSWs.DIRECT MESSAGE 150 Albertrani Bernardini ** Top genes; hasn’t delivered yet. DISCREETNESS 200 Fires Discreet Cat *** Springboard Mile winner to OP. DISSIDENT 125 Pletcher Medaglia d'Oro *** Kee 9F-T winner gets GP dirt try. DOLPHUS 150 Sharp Lookin At Lucky *** Rachel’s ½-bro can play at FG. DONEGAL MOON 200 Pletcher Malibu Moon *** Remsen 5th bred to handle trip. DR. DORR 175 Baffert Lookin At Lucky *** Excuse Bob Hope troubled start. DREFONG 60 Baffert Gio Ponti **** Wagon filled post-Nov MSW win. DREAM OF ME 275 Varsi High Cotton ** Dr. Fager champ out since Sept. DREAM TEAM 250 Baffert Tapit ** ½ to Indianapolis fast, how far? DRESSED IN HERMES 175 Armstrong Hat Trick *** Leading west coast grass 2YO. DUBDUBWATSON 275 Brocklebank Kipling * Strikes me as a win-early juvy.ECONOMIC MODEL 85 Brown Flatter *** Spa debut winner back on Fl tab. EL CHARRO 300 J.A. Rodriguez Put It Back ** Stakes rise tripped up Floridian. EMOTIONLESS 200 Appleby Shamardal ** Irish colt o/o BC Distaff champ. ETERNAL BIRD 175 Brown Tiznow ** Royally bred; back on Pmm tab. EXAGGERATOR 20 Desormeaux Curlin ***** Sharp 2YO danced the big ones. EXPECTED RULER 300 Benson Leriodesanimaux ** Tyro winner failed in 2 longer. EXTINCT CHARM Contessa American Lion ** Upset Damon Runyon vs. NYBs. FASHION DESIGNER 350 Ice Old Fashioned * Out since Del debut 2nd in July.FASHIONABLE FREDDY 250 Zito Tiznow ** Del route MSW winner at Pmm. FELLOWSHIP 200 Gold Awesome of Course *** Strong stakes type for early ’16. FINNEGAN 225 Ward Unbridled's Song *** Bodemeister’s ½ bro went int’l. FISH TRAPPE ROAD 250 Calhoun Trappe Shot ** NY-bred stakes colt now at FG. FLASH McCAUL Trombetta Friesan Fire ** Hard-trying Lrl stakes gelding. FLEXIBILITY 60 Brown Bluegrass Cat **** Remsen 2nd leads Aqu winter lot. FLYING AROUND 400 Rivelli Cowboy Cal * Arlington bridesmaid sidelined.

28

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

FOREVAMO 175 Stall Jr. Uncle Mo ** Jean Lafitte champ slop-aided? FORMAL SUMMATION 225 O'Connell In Summation ** Good 2nd vs beast at Tam; sprint. FOUND MONEY 125 O'Neill Square Eddie **** On cusp on division’s top; watch. FRANCESCO BLUE 250 Pilotti Leroidesanimaux ** Summer SW back on Dec tab. FRANK CONVERSATION 350 O'Neill Quality Road ** Appears better-suited for turf. FREEDOM TOWER 250 L. Rice Broken Vow * Working toward debut in NY.FRENCH GETAWAY Hess Giant’s Causeway *** Run-all-day, bested SA routers. FRONT LINE PAIGE 250 Proctor Proud Citizen * Out since KD MSW win; turf dam.FULL SALUTE 250 Plesa Jr Speightstown ** Sprint future likely for sharpie. GEHRIG 250 Levine Ghostzapper ** Fast NYB ??? distance damside. GENERAL MACARTHUR 200 O'Brien War Front ** Son of Coolmore star Imagine. GET JETS 125 Dutrow Scat Daddy ** NYB SW still route untested. GETTYSBURG 225 Pletcher Pioneerof the Nile ** Improved w/ move to GP in Dec. GIFT BOX 35 Brown Twirling Candy ***** Remsen 3rd may be barn’s best. GIO'S CALLING 225 Lynch Gio Ponti ** Knocking on turf MSW door. GOOD FOR IT 250 Sise Jr Neko Bay * 4th start Lrc MSW win sprinting.GOOD GENES 275 Gold Awesome of Course ** ½ Awesome Feather back in Fl. GOTSOMEJOJO 275 GOVERNOR MALIBU 225 Clement Malibu Moon *** Progressive NYB worth a look. GRAY SKY 200 Lukas Tapit *** CD MSW winner eyes Oaklawn. GREATEST GAME 200 Casse Giant's Causeway **** ½ Stormello showed WO game. GREENPOINTCRUSADER 30 Schettino Bernardini ***** Mud freak/BC dud? Love genes. GUN RUNNER 50 Asmusen Candy Ride ***** Visually never comfy in CD mud. HAMMERS VISION 250 Lynch Court Vision *** Summer form in NY promising. HAND OF POWER 200 Wilkes Candy Ride ** Has improved for patient barn. HARLAN PUNCH 85 Amoss Harlan's Holiday *** DeD Jackpot 3rd fits at FG winter. HE'S A TIGER 300 Bonde Sky Mesa * 2-2 as juvy in NoCal; sprinter.HE'S COMIN IN HOT 300 Calhoun Early Flyer ** TX-bred a hot early 2YO; peak? HIGHLAND SKY 300 Tagg Sky Mesa *** Well-bred turfer handles routes. HINT OF ROSES 125 Maker Tapit ** Dam ½ Kitten’s Joy; dull MSWs. HIT IT A BOMB 100 O’Brien War Front *** Brilliant BC Juvy Turf rally; dirt? HOFFENHEIM 150 Baffert Midnight Lute ** Knocking on SoCal MSW door. HOLDING GOLD 300 Casse Lonhro * Out since Sar Special flat effort.HOLLYWOOD DON 300 Miller Tapit *** Expected more in Lrc Futurity. HOLLYWOOD HIDEAWAY 250 Minshall Zensational ** Woodbine SW didn’t develop. HUNTER O'RILEY 250 Sharp Tiz Wonderful *** Never fired when 7th in Remsen.

29

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE 200 Maker Wilburn * Didn’t show enough in 4 MSWs.

I'MALREADYTHERE 125 Hollendorfer Crown of Thorns *** Consistent stakes knocker tries. INHIBITION 250 Cassidy Street Sense * Split field in debut; good genes.INTENSITY 175 Brown Eskendereya ** Turf route debut win at Aqu. IRISH 225 Dollase Paddy O'Prado * Away since Dmr summer MSWs.ISHAQ 75 Loza Harlan’s Holiday **** Dam full to Smarty Jones; talent. ISOTHERM 175 Weaver Lonhro *** Sharp turfer gets a Fla dirt try. IT'S THE JOURNEY 300 Trombetta Mineshaft * MD-bred looks like 1-turn best.I WILL SCORE 75 Hollendorfer Roman Ruler *** Working well SA since Lrc score. JAN’S RESERVE Dilger Ready’s Image ** Smoked Aqu 6F stakes in Nov. JEEZUM JIM 400 Capuano Fairbanks * Away since Sept Del stakes 3rd.JES JAA 250 Sadler Big Drama * Even efforts in 2 MSWs so far.JOHN Q. PUBLIC 275 Lukas Proud Citizen ** Versatile early 2yo out since KD. JR'S HOLIDAY** 250 Garoffalo Harlan's Holiday JURY 275 Hollendorfer Tale of the Cat ** Likely better than Bob Hope bid. JUSTIN SQUARED 100 Baffert Zensational *** Out since fleet Dmr debut win. KASSEOPIA 125 Fellowes Showcasing *** Imported Grey 3rd now at Pmm. KING KRANZ 225 Terranova Munnings *** G2 Futurity 2nd needs breakthru. KIOSK'S CAUSE 350 Hamm Noble Causeway * Ohio-bred SW away since Aug.KLINGON WARRIOR 175 Demasi First Dude * Out since Prx July debut win.KNIGHTS KEY 75 Hobby Giant's Causeway **** Route pedigree player at OP. LANGARA 300 Schnell Langfuhr * 2-time SW in western Canada.LET ME GO FIRST B. Servis Paddy o' Prado ** Parx grad gets shot in Jerome.LETITHAPPEN 300 Bonde Mizzen Mast ** Back on tab post-solid Dmr tries. LET'S MEET IN RIO 250 Baffert Flatter *** Juddmonte improving router. LEWIS BAY (F) 200 Brown Bernardini ** Demoiselle winner Oaks-aimed. LIFE IMITATES ART 250 Brown More Than Ready *** Looks like big-time turf miler. LOOK ME IN THE EYE 300 Puype Marino Marini * Cal-bred sprinter out since Aug.LUCKY BRYAN 275 Barba Lookin At Lucky *** Solid turf router; dirt hurdle? LUCKY LURIE 250 Hennig Girolamo ** NY-bred talented, but sprints. LUCKY RAMSEY 150 Maker Lookin At Lucky **** Ramsey’s best shot on dirt in FL. LUNA DE LOCO 125 Asmussen Malibu Moon *** Aqu MSW grad moves to FG. MAC DADDY MAC 100 Ritvo Put It Back ** Sprint stakes future, but route? MACH ONE RULES 250 Lucarelli Harbor the Gold * Unbeaten king of Emerald, 4-4.MAGNA LIGHT 300 R. Rodriguez Magna Graduate ** Sar star fizzled into the fall. MAJESTIC SLEW 250 De Paulo Majestic Warrior ** Swynford 3rd hasn’t advanced.

30

http://www.horseplayernow.com/buy-products

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

MAJESTO 225 Delgado Tiznow ** Route-bred set to get MSW soon. MANA STRIKE 275 Lucarelli Papa Clem *** Gold Rush winner tops NoCalers. MANHATTAN DAN 300 Contessa Big Brown *** Versatile, fits w/ NYRA winter. MANIPULATED 250 Jerkens Malibu Moon ** NYB sprint ability, but distance? MARKET RALLY 125 Catalano Unbridled's Song ** Aug Mth debut winner out since. MARQULA 350 Bonde Coast Guard ** NoCal stakes-placed; step up? MARSHALL EDDY 300 Nihei City Zip * Decent pedigree; 0-3 in MSWs.MASTER MICK 350 Feliciano Two Step Salsa * Out since Aug Ohio-bred SW.MATT KING COAL 60 L. Rice Cool Coal Man *** Improving; factors Aqu winter. MAYOR MAC 125 G. Foley Discreetly Mine * Away since CD June debut win.MEMORIES OF WINTER 225 Margotta Jr Hard Spun ** Must improve off Delta fade. METAL MAGIC 275 Kenneally Yes It's True * Sprinter doesn’t forecast long.

MIDNIGHT EDITION 150 Baffert Midnight Lute * Cal-bred MCL grad long way off.MINER'S LIGHT 125 Gaines Mineshaft *** Like pedigree; maiden to watch. MISSLE BOMB 250 D. Miller Tale of the Cat ** Stakes-place maiden not far off. MO FOR THE MONEY 250 Dutrow Uncle Mo ** Speedster may fit NYRA winter. MO POWER Pletcher MO TOM 85 Amoss Uncle Mo **** FG factor; better at 1 turn? MOHAYMEN 12 McLaughlin Tapit ***** New York’s top 2YO of 2015. MOR SPIRIT 12 Baffert Eskendereya ***** Could be west’s top TC prospect. MORNING FIRE 300 Nations Friesan Fire ** PA top sprinter may’ve peaked. MORSE CODE 150 McGaughey Tapit **** Honor Code bro 1 to watch GP. MOUNTAIN MUSIC MAN 300 Pletcher Bluegrass Cat *** Solid turfer; Spiral contender. MR. GAME RACING 250 MR COKER Hollendorfer Candy Ride ** 2nd-best in sharp 12/26 SA MSW. MR HUNGRY Domenosky Stroll ** May foal romped Haw MSWs. MRAZEK 125 O'Neill Square Eddie ** Star summer Cal-bred out since. MT VEEDER 125 Baffert Ghostzapper *** Expect rebound off FrontRunner. NAVY HYMN 150 O'Neill Songandaprayer * Dropped to MCL before vacation.NEOLITHIC 75 Pletcher Harlan's Holiday *** Beat decent cast GP Dec MSW. NEVER GONE SOUTH 200 C. Lynch Munnings ** Sharp Mid-Atlantic sprinter only. NIGHTLY NEWS 125 Baffert Misremembered ** Gelding didn’t progress MSWs. NIIGON'S EDGE 500 S. Simon Niigon * Off board in 2 WO stakes bids.NOBLE THOUGHT 250 Stidham Harlan's Holirday ** Solid FG MSW win from 11-hole. NO DISTORTION L. Jones Distorted Humor ** ½ Proud Spell battling MSWs FG. NO HOLDS BARRED 350 Chleborad Hold Me Back * IA-bred out since Aug; OP tests.

32

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

NYQUIST 15 O'Neill Uncle Mo ***** Formidable foe passed BC test. ON FIRE 300 Callaghan Friesan Fire ** Sire seems win-early & fizzle. ONE LEGEND 200 McPeek Hard Spun *** Kee turf route ALW winner. ONEPOINTTWENTYONE 275 Pecoraro E Dubai ** Del sprint SW away since Sept. OSSETRA 275 Baffert Into Mischief *** Like the genes for Lrc ALW 2nd. OUR RAPIDASH 350 Delahoussaye Half Ours * La-bred SW tailed off late year.OUR TRACK 175 Sims Curlin ** Ky MSW router needs hot pace. PARATROOPER 250 Potts U S Ranger * May foal out since June PID win.PASCHAL 175 Romans Curlin ** Pedigree decent but flat at CD. PATRICK'S DAY 300 Pletcher Harlan's Holiday ** Inconsistent; long turf damside. PATTON PROUD 200 Asmussen Eskendereya *** Fits well at FG off solid Ky tries. PAYNES PRAIRIE 175 Pender Tale of Ekati ** Well-traveled stakes sprinter. PENSADOR 300 Bravo Einstein * MN-bred out since Cby summer.PERFECT SAINT 250 Romans Pleasantly Perfect *** Midpack slop in KJC; like genes. PINNACLE PEAK Stidham Yes It’s True *** Wired good FG ALW mid-Dec. PIRELLONE 150 Nicks Gio Ponte *** Bel MSW winner cut back at GP. PLAYWRIGHT 225 Mott Super Saver ** NYB with strong female family. PORTFOLIO MANAGER 150 Brown Harlan's Holiday *** Champagne 3rd needs mdn tally. PROSPECTUS 250 Pletcher Uncle Mo ** Late year GP debut win, ALW 3rd. QUANTUM FORCE 125 Brocklebank Papa Clem * CA-bred out since July Lrc score.QUIJOTE Amoss Pomeroy * FG debut win 12/27; sprinter.R DUB 400 Gleason Fort Prado * 2x Arapahoe SW out since Aug.RACHEL'S VALENTINA (F) 125 Pletcher Bernardini ** Fillies must be legendary for TC. RAFTING 100 Motion Tapit ***** GP SW o/o top Canadian family. RALIS 125 O’Neill Square Eddie *** Hopeful seems fluky in review. RARE CANDY 125 Hofmans Twirling Candy *** Steady sort for SA 3YO series. RATED R SUPERSTAR 175 McPeek Kodiak Kowboy ** Pedigree, late season fade ?s. RAPPEL 350 Ribaudo Elusive Quality ** Fair Bel turf tries; no dirt genes. RALLY CRY 125 Pletcher Uncle Mo *** Topped tough 12/26 GP MSW. RAVENHEART Abbott Dance With Ravens ** Lrl SW overmatched in Remsen. RAY'S THE BAR 250 Brown Exceed And Excel ** Better than BCJT, but not on dirt. RED HOT WARRIOR 300 Amoss War Front * Tdn grad out since KD Fut dud.REALM 150 Tagg Haynesfield ** Sidelined since Spa debut win. RICHIE THE BULL 250 Rivelli Benny The Bull ** Speedy IL-bred distance limited. RIDDLER 200 Pletcher Harlan's Holiday ** 12/24 tab return; CD spring 3rd. RIKER 150 N. Gonzalez Include *** 6th after setting pace in BC Juvy.

33

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

RIVER DELL 150 Albertrani Arch ** Nashua 4th from sprint damside. ROCKIN BAYOU 225 Mullins Forefathers ** Dmr Fut 4th all sprint pedigree. RUCK 350 Baker Lookin At Lucky * Router failed in 2 WO stakes.RUTH LESS BLUE 500 Fairlie Giant Gizmo ** Solid WO SW for Queen’s Plate. SAIL AHOY 45 McGaughey Bernardini ***** Pine Island/Point of Entry bro. SALLISAW 175 McLaughlin Exchange Rate ** May fit with NYRA winter group. SAMICEAN 200 McPeek Medicean * German turfer didn’t fire at Kee.

SARATOGA MISCHIEF 250 Pletcher Into Mischief *** Sar Special 3rd; tab return in Dec. SAWYERS MICKEY 300 Asmussen Flatter * OH-bred didn’t deliver at CD.

SEA WIZARD 200 Mazza Uncle Mo ** Bel MSW 2nd back on GP tab. SEAT OF HONOR 200 McGaughey Tapit *** Improving; from regal damside. SECRET PASSAGE 250 Von Hemel Curlin **** Serious threat at OP to beware. SEMPER FORTIS 175 O'Neill Distorted Humor **** Carpe Diem bro improved lately. SEND ME 200 Hold Me Back * Training at Bel toward debut.SEYMOURDINI 50 Rice Bernardini *** Romping Aqu mile; sprint dam. SHAGAF 45 Brown Bernardini **** Bigtime debut at Aqu & genes. SHAKHIMAT 175 Attfield Lonhro *** Arguably fav for Queen’s Plate. SHARP AZTECA 225 Navarro Freud * GP MSW debut 2nd in Dec to Zulu.SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS 175 Ward Discreetly Mine *** Fast Kee SW looks like sprinter. SHIP ROCK 400 Calhoun Indygo Mountain * TX-bred out since May score.SHORE LEAVE 200 McGaughey Flatter * ½ to Orb yet to hit worktab.SHOW BOUND 175 Asmussen Warrior's Reward ** Stakes-place mdn out since Sept. SHUT THE BOX 275 P. Miller Hard Spun * Didn’t deliver much in 2 MSWs.

SIDING SPRING 300 Casse Warrior's Reward *** Bourbon 3rd no match in BC Juvy. SILVERTOWN 200 Kenneally Speightstown ** String of MSW misses; now in FL. SITE READ 250 Mott Tizdejavu ** Most likely turfer could eye TP. SKY MARSHAL 300 Minshall Sky Mesa ** Summer S. 2nd outmatched BCJT. SMART MOON 300 Casse Malibu Moon * Sidelined post-Kee trouble ALW.SMOKEY IMAGE 125 James Southern Image *** 4x CA-bred SW gets open shot. SOMBREE 275 Reed Eskendereya * Mnr JFilly champ out since Sept.SORRYABOUTNOTHING 150 O'Neill Repent ** Win-early genes; outrun Lrc Fut. SPIKES SHIRL Stewart Speightstown *** Clear 2nd FG ALW mile 12/28. SPLIT 250 Motion Speightstown * Dropped in for tag late year.STAGEPLAY 175 Asmussen Curlin ** A top filly on FG Oaks scene. STANZ IN COMMAND 300 C. Miller Second in Command * 2x SW in British Columbia.STAR HILL 250 Arnold Elusive Quality * Back working Pmm; Iroquois 6th.

34

http://www.keenelandselect.com

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

STICKSSTATELYDUDE 100 Burchell First Dude ** Tendon injury before BC Juvy. STORMATION 225 Diodoro Stormy Atlantic ** Cby/Prm SW away since Sept. STRADIVARI 175 Pletcher Medaglia d'Oro **** GP romper o/o Bending Strings. STREET VISION 200 Glatt Street Sense ** Speakeasy 2nd has route ?s. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 175 Von Hemel Mineshaft *** Solid player for Oaklawn series. SUDDEN SURPRISE 225 Pletcher Giant Surprise *** Ran roughshod vs. NYBs; open? SUNNY RIDGE 75 Jason Servis Holy Bull **** NJ-bred 2nd Champagne, Jackpot. SPEZIA 300 Whiting Speightstown ** Sprinter needs an OP breakout. SWAGGER JAGGER 250 Maker Crown of Thorns *** Finding home on turf; improved. SWIPE 20 Desormeaux Birdstone ***** Showed all the tools at age 2. SYNCHRONY 85 Von Hemel Tapit **** Dig genes/resume; barn loaded. TALE OF S'AVALL 60 Tagg Tale of Ekati *** Out since Champagne 5th; talent. TAP TO IT (F) 175 Nicks Tapit * Spinaway 2nd a big reach here.TASIT 200 Matz Tapit *** Lrl MSW grad w/ upside; Fla bid. THE ZIP ZIP MAN 250 Stidham City Zip ** Colin 2nd out since fall; dirt? TIZ LOVE 300 Harrington Slew's Tiznow * Won Dmr CA-bred dash in Aug.TIZNOBLE Sharp Tiznow *** FG ALW win 12/28 going 1M. TIZZARUNNER 175 Casse Tizway *** Rock-solid in WO stakes; Fla bid. TOEWS ON ICE 25 Baffert ArchArchArch *** Distance legit concern, but fast. TOM'S READY 225 Stewart More Than Ready **** Fits among tops at FG this meet. TOO DISCREET 225 Clement Discreet Cat ** Out since 2 Sar NYB scores. TORRONTES Gorder Macho Uno ** Wired FG route MSW 12/28. TROJAN NATION 225 Gallagher Street Cry ** Not delivering on pedigree yet. TRUE BRILLIANCE 250 Diodoro Unusual Heat * CA-bred; nice sprint return bid.TURULU 125 V. Garcia Eskendereya ** Away since June debut SA win. TUSK 250 Motion Tapit *** Inconsistent turfer w/ ability. TWIRLING CINNAMON 250 Cox Twirling Candy ** Sugar Bowl 2nd; better shorter? ULTRAFLAME 300 Ross Old Forester * No match Ami’s Gizmo; sprints.

UNBRIDLED DADDY 175 Pletcher Scat Daddy ** Turf performer out since Kee. UNBRIDLED OUTLAW 85 Romans Unbridled's Song **** Lots of steam behind this one. UNCLE BRENNIE 200 Cox Uncle Mo ** Inconsistent sort must improve. UNCLE LINO 125 Sherlock Uncle Mo ** Dmr fall MSW victor; sprint dam. UNCLE WALTER 150 Maker Uncle Mo **** Strong 2nd Synchrony at CD. UNEXPLAINED 150 Richard Ghostzapper **** OP sleeper off good CD 2nd. URLACHER 150 Harty Discreet Cat *** Maiden distance 4th Lrc Futurity. VIEWINGTHEGOLD 300 Navarro Harbor The Gold * WA-bred stakes placed at Emd.

36

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk. Odds are from Wynn Las Vegas as of Dec. 21, 2015 – updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

VINCENTO 400 R. Rodriguez Include ** Solid NYB route closer for Aqu. VORTICITY 150 Lawrence Distorted Humor ** Bred superbly for sprint stakes. WAR ORDER 250 Motion War Front ** Turf underachiver w/ trouble. WHEELS UP NOW 200 Albertrani Smart Strike ** 2nd-best in tough 12/26 GP MSW. WHILE YE MAY 250 Kobiskie Pioneerof the Nile ** Nov GP dash debut winner. WHITMORE 250 Moquett Pleasantly Perfect **** OP player; Jackpot was 2nd start. WHO'S OUT 125 Hollendorfer Tale of Ekati ** Demolished Dmr MSWs in Aug. WILD MAN 250 Asmussen Pulpit *** Lightbulb coming on; FG threat. WINNING ROAD 275 Dilger Quality Road * Lrl MSW 2nd after NYRA drop.ZAPPERINI 225 G. Foley Ghostzapper *** CD debut 2nd maybe FG sleeper. ZERO HOUR 250 Casse Bernardini ** Disappointed in Saratoga debut. ZICONIC (pictured) 150 Shirreffs Tapit ** Zenyatta baby modest SA drills. Z ROYAL 100 Lukas Eskendereya *** Got fast pace aid at CD; OP next. ZULU 85 Pletcher Bernardini **** Great genes; spot-on Dec debut.

37

We’re Waiting For You! By Jeremy Plonk

Admit it – you think you can take down the handicapping pros. If you didn’t, you wouldn’t be in the pari-mutuel pools. One of the many beauties of playing the races is that our self perceptions drive us all.

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?

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Jan 23 Steve Byk SiriusXM

Jan 30 Brian Nadeau HP NOW

Feb 6 Brad Free DRF

Feb 13 Tom Quigley SA/Lrc

Feb 20 Eddie Olcyzk NBC Sports

Feb 27 Johnny D Xpressbet

The weekly mandatory races are a split of events from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, typically 4 each or a 3-5 division some weeks.

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38

to experienced players,” said John DeSantis, senior VP / editor at Xpressbet. “The weekly Saturday format provides players with opportunities to whip the host and to qualify for the championship round. There’s also $2,500 in weekly cash up for grabs.”

Tip For Beating the Pros

The public has a big advantage in that the hosts’ picks are published in advance and you can play off of those and counter the hosts’ moves. For instance, if the host picks a likely $3 horse that’s a heavy favorite, you can swing for something big in that race and feel as though the worst you can do is fall $3 behind. When we take a big price swing, you can feel more comfortable playing a favorite and taking the incremental edge moving ahead. Zig when we zag.

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39

By Jeremy Plonk

The people behind the Triple

Crown performers make for lovely

television, colorizing the storylines

and offering a voyeurs’ peek into

the lifestyles of the rich and

famous.

We love to talk about trainers and

jockeys who have been there and

done that when picking our Triple

Crown horses. But the vast

majority of the series’ races since

the new millennium have been won

by the inexperienced. For every

Bob Baffert or Gary Stevens, there

are three names closer to Michael

Matz or Jeremy Rose.

Consider the 16 Kentucky Derby-

winning trainers from 2000-’15 and

their previous records in the race.

You’ll quickly see how ‘experience’

has been overrated in Louisville:

Year Trainer Starts: 1st-2nd-3rd 2000 Neil Drysdale 0: 0-0-0 2001 John Ward 2: 0-0-0 2002 Bob Baffert 11: 2-1-2 2003 Barclay Tagg 0: 0-0-0 2004 John Servis 0: 0-0-0 2005 John Shirreffs 0: 0-0-0 2006 Michael Matz 0: 0-0-0 2007 Carl Nafzger 2: 1-0-0 2008 Rick Dutrow 0: 0-0-0 2009 Chip Woolley 0: 0-0-0 2010 Todd Pletcher 24: 0-2-1 2011 Graham Motion 2: 0-0-0 2012 Doug O’Neill 2: 0-0-0 2013 Shug McGaughey 6: 0-1-1 2014 Art Sherman 0: 0-0-0 2015 Bob Baffert 24: 3-3-2

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The facts show that 12 of the last

16 Kentucky Derby-winning

trainers had 2 or fewer previous

attempts at the roses before

gaining victory. Eight of those

won in their Louisville debuts.

And of those trainers since 2000

who had Derby dreams realized,

few, if any, can say that

their stable profile has

improved in any

measure since. Winning

the Kentucky Derby may

do wonderful things for

self-esteem, but it

doesn’t insure any

upswing in the career

arc of a trainer.

Neil Drysdale went into

the Hall of Fame the summer of

Fusaichi Pegasus’ Derby score, but

he hasn’t come within 75 percent

of his earnings total of 2000 since.

After a spike in starters in 2001,

Drysdale’s number of entries within

2 years already had fallen below

his 2000 season totals.

In the 12 years before Funny Cide

(pictured), Barclay Tagg averaged

247 starters per year. The dozen

seasons since have seen the barn

average 249 annual starters. Twice

he topped his 2003 earnings total

(2007 and 2008), and he has

trained 5 Grade 1 winners since

that time (the last of which was

Jersey Town in 2010) compared to

just 2 in the dozen years before

Funny Cide. So while Tagg did see

some bump in the years after his

Derby win, it was not sustained.

A year later, John Servis

followed suit with Smarty

Jones in the Derby and

Preakness. Likeable, well-

presented and with

seemingly nothing but

upside, it was fair to expect

his horse of a lifetime to

change Servis’ career. But

after finishing 4th in the

nation in earnings in 2004

behind Smarty Jones, Servis

didn’t crack the top 100 again until

2010 when finishing 71st, still the

best he’s mustered since. He hasn’t

won a graded stakes since

Rockport Harbor and Round Pond

in 2006 at Oaklawn. Servis did pick

up high-caliber client Fox Hill Farm

after the success of Smarty Jones,

but it was fleeting for only a bit

and Round Pond would be sent to

Michael Matz before realizing

Breeders’ Cup Distaff glory in the

autumn of ’06.

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Of course, the big reason Matz was

attractive in 2006 was the

Kentucky Derby run by his lifetime

horse, Barbaro (pictured). Here

again you

had a

reputable

horseman

with

Olympic

medals in

his equestrian background and a

hero’s story told worldwide during

the ’06 Triple Crown. If ever a

career was about to take off, it was

Matz. To that point, his only G1

winner trained was Kicken Kris,

who tallied the ’03 Secretariat and

’04 Arlington Million. Matz would

pick up Round Pond from Servis,

add the ’08 King’s Bishop with

Visionaire and then get his second

star horse in ’11-’12 with Union

Rags, winner of the G1 Champagne

and G1 Belmont Stakes. Since

then, however, he hasn’t come

close to the Triple Crown and turf

females Hard Not To Like and

Somali Lemonade have been his

only G1 winners. He hasn’t reached

higher than 42nd nationally in

earnings since Barbaro and Round

Pond took him to No. 16 in 2006.

His stable earnings in 2015 were

barely more than one-quarter of

what they were in his career year.

John Shirreffs tasted his first Triple

Crown success with 50-1 stunner

Giacomo in 2005 and hasn’t been

strongly in the mix since. Stable

staples, owners Jerry and Ann

Moss, of course, did deliver home-

bred Zenyatta to Shirreffs and she

left an indelible mark on racing and

the barn. But there hasn’t been an

influx of new owners for Shirreffs

because of Giacomo – or even

Zenyatta for that matter.

Noted turf trainer Graham Motion

not only pulled a surface switch

successfully for Animal Kingdom in

2011, but also for his career. The

Englishmen had a superb

reputation on grass, but his

success with Animal Kingdom

opened the eyes of his followers

that he could train successes at

any level. Animal Kingdom would

go on to win the Dubai World Cup

on synthetic. But Motion’s Triple

Crown presence since has been

nearly non-existent and his half-

dozen G1 victories in America since

the ’11 Derby all have come on the

turf. Motion’s career arc certainly

has not dropped since winning the

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Derby, witnessed by a $10 million

season in 2014 and another strong

showing in 2015 pushing the $8

million mark. But he hasn’t become

a household name on the trail

overnight either.

Doug O’Neill experienced stardom

with I’ll Have Another in the 2012

Derby and Preakness. His stable

earned $7.8 million that season,

and a year later needed nearly 300

more starts to net $7.5 million. His

2014 tally dropped all the way to

$4.4 million before a superior crop

of 2-year-olds re-raised his profile

in 2015 and has O’Neill looking like

a major player again after topping

the $7 million mark. But his top

owner remains J. Paul Reddam of

I’ll Have Another fame, so again it

is arguable that O’Neill’s Crown

success has not relaunched him.

Art Sherman’s stable remained

simply as California Chrome came

and went in 2015 with no notable

uptick after his lifetime horse

nearly won the Triple Crown a

season prior. Guys like Tim Ritchey

of Afleet Alex fame in 2005 know

all too well how that goes. He

hasn’t won a G1 stakes since the

Belmont score by Afleet Alex, and

Ritchey’s barn that once regularly

boasted 300-400 starters per year

hasn’t gotten into triple digits for

starters in the past 3 years. Chip

Wooley hasn’t been heard from

since Mine That Bird was moved to

D. Wayne Lukas.

Jockeys are no different. Triple

Crown race winners like Jeremy Rose (pictured), Stewart Elliott, Jesus

Castanon,

Jose

Valdivia

and Mario

Gutierrez

haven’t automatically seen their

fortunes skyrocket. Most drifted

back to where they came from in

terms of locales and achievements.

Calvin Borel’s amazing Kentucky

Derby run gave him a short-term

boost, but didn’t set a national

hysteria in terms of live mounts.

The big horse truly is about the big

horse. He or she doesn’t have to

come from a Triple Crown-winning

outfit, and he or she certainly

won’t change the fortunes of said

outfit for decades to come. Success

on the Triple Crown trail and series

can be fleeting – enjoy it while it

lasts, and remember to focus on

the horse, of course. – HPN

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It’s not that often you hear the

Kentucky Derby and the NCAA

Tournament get mentioned in the

same sentence, but similarities

undoubtedly exist. Each year

hundreds of Thoroughbreds

embark on a path that will land 20

of them in the starting gate at

Churchill Downs for the biggest

horse race in the world. Around the

same time, some 300 college

basketball teams will do the same,

navigating through a schedule that

will land 68 of them in the Big

Dance, where they will funnel

down to one national champion

over the course of three weeks.

The Derby field is open to any able

and willing 3-year-old that has

amassed enough points over the

course of his (or her) career to

make the final cut of 20 that will

meet the starter. They come from

any and all corners of the country

(and sometimes the world) and

their stories and how they got

there are as scrutinized as their

past performances will be in the

days leading up to the first

Saturday in May. The field for the

NCAA Tournament is eerily similar,

as that rank outsider can go on a

tear and win its conference

tournament—regular season record

be damned—and qualify, much like

that giant longshot can step up and

run 2nd in a G1 race in April and

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earn enough Derby

qualifying points.

The Derby 20, like a

good basketball team,

can come from

anywhere, and have

any kind of individual

makeup. So with that

in mind, let’s take a

look at a few 3-year-olds

that are high on my list

and both on (and under) the national radar and could wind

up making a big basket at

Churchill Downs.

The All-American: If you want to

cut the nets down in April you need

a lot of pieces, but undoubtedly

you need that All-American, that

star player that you can rely on to

get you a big basket when it’s

crunch time. My All-American this

year is GREENPOINTCRUSADER

(pictured), who rose to the top of the ranks of the New York 2YOs last year with a dominant win in

the G1 Champagne at Belmont

Park in October. Things didn’t go

as swimmingly when he was 7th in

the BC Juvenile at Keeneland, but

he had a rough trip that day and

emerged with an eye injury, so you

can be a bit forgiving. As a son of

Bernardini out of a Cryptoclearance

mare, he’s bred to run all day, and

his stalking style is the type you

want in a Derby horse. Trainer

Dominick Schettino is a relative

newcomer to the Triple Crown Trail

(he's had a few bombs in the Belmont and Preakness), but we’ve

seen time and again over the past

several years that experience is a

overrated when it comes to

training a Kentucky Derby winner.

GREENPOINTCRUSADER showed at

2 he’s an immense talent, and I

fully expect him to build on that

2YO foundation when he pops up

in Florida this winter.

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The Rising Star: Each and every

year we see a player put a team on

his back and will them to win, and

often times it’s a player that has

hinted at high promise throughout

their career and finally puts it all

together in March. The path to the

Kentucky Derby is no different, as

it’s all about getting hot at the right

time, and this year’s Rising Star is

GIFT BOX, who made some big

waves when he broke his maiden

in his second start at Belmont in

the slop in October then was a

good 3rd in a very good renewal of

Aqueduct’s G2 Remsen in

November. That effort smelled a

bit like “too much, too soon,” but

to be fair, where else was Chad

Brown supposed to run him? And

it’s not like he was embarrassed by

the unbeaten winner MOHAYMEN,

who everyone has in their top-3 (at

worst) at this point. Sure, a son of

Twirling Candy out of an

Unbridled’s Song mare isn’t exactly

bred to relish 10 panels, but we’ve

seen the miler types win countless

Derbies and whenever you run 1

1/8 miles as a 2YO, it’s a great

foundation builder. GIFT BOXshowed high promise at 2, looks

like the type that can use his

tactical speed to get any kind of

trip, and should be a major player

in Florida or New Orleans,

depending where Brown decides

to start him.

The Blueblood: This is often the

most frustrating type of player and

horse, because they are the type

who are bred to be a star, but

often have trouble putting it all

together. Basically, you know it’s in

there; it’s just a matter of if—or

when—it’s going to come out. With

this year’s Blue Blood—MORSE

CODE—it’s not “if,” but “when,” as

he looked eerily similar to older

half-brother Honor Code when he

closed from the clouds to be 2nd in

his debut at Aqueduct in November

for trainer Shug McGaughey

(pictured). If you followed me in

this space and in others, you know

46

I was never a big Honor Code fan,

but he won me over by the time he

called it a career, so even though

mom Serena’s Tune wasn’t a two-

turn horse, dad Tapit is showing he

can get any type of runner, and

when the distances stretch out and

the rubber bands of all these

precocious, distance-challenged

3YOs start to get mighty thin, this

colt will be rolling late for

McGaughey, just like Honor Code

did. MORSE CODE is at Payson

Park in Florida working towards his

second career start, where you

have to think he’ll be odds-on to

break his maiden and announce his

presence on the national scene and load up his bandwagon.

The Freshman Sensation: This

is probably the category where

hoops and horses differ, because

we see a lot more Carmelo

Anthonys and Jahlil Okafors than

we do Favorite Tricks, Yonaguskas

and Shaghai Bobbys; you know,

the type of horse that is just

superior to his rivals early in their

2YO season, but has no real edge

when their rivals grow up and

become bigger and tougher 3yos.

So, take this year’s Freshman

Sensation with a grain of salt, but I

was really impressed with GUN

RUNNER’S two wins to start his

career, especially his Keeneland

allowance win (pictured), when

he showed plenty of polish to shut

off early, split horses off the far

turn and win for fun.

Yes, he didn’t do much running

when he was a meek 4th in

Churchill’s G2 Kentucky Jockey

Club to close out his season, but

that race was run over a mess of a

track and I’m willing to forgive the

effort. He’s by Candy Ride (ARG)

out of a Giant’s Causeway mare,

and Steve Asmussen and owner

Ron Winchell have had a lot of

success on the Triple Crown trail in

recent years, so he should be a

major player in New Orleans this

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winter. GUN RUNNER isn’t like the

typical aforementioned Freshman

Sensations, in that he really didn’t

win anything too important, but he

showed enough at 2 to be

considered a horse to follow this

winter.

The Project: Every team has a

project, and they can be the type

that really tests your patience time

and again, since they will give you

a glimpse of talent, then just as

quickly take it away and leave you

scratching your head. In

basketball, the

Project is typically

that 7-footer who

takes about 17

seconds to get over

half-court, but when

he establishes himself

down low in the post, he’s

impossible to move and defend. In

racing, the Project is that gawky,

oversized 2YO that has trouble

getting out of his own way and

who has yet to grow into his body

and wants nothing to do with one-

turn, sprint races. This year’s

Project is DIRECT MESSAGE, a big,

burly son of Bernardini out of the

Unbridled’s Song mare Tweeter,

who is a half-sister to multiple G1winners Bird Town and Birdstone.

The Godolphin homebred gave—

when he broke slow, made a rush

up into contention inside,

threatened the leaders then tired

to be 4th in a debut you know he

needed going 7F’s in his debut at

Saratoga in September—then took

away—when he was a complete

no-show 4th, beaten over 20

lengths by Gift Box in that colt’s

maiden breaker. So obviously Tom

Albertrani (pictured) has his work

cut out for him to get

the best out of this

colt, but he’s bred to

be a serious horse,

showed he’s got

talent in his debut,

and should start to

get all the best of it when he

makes his next start at Gulfstream,

presumably going long around two

turns (he was entered as an MTO

there 12/19 but scratched).

The Do-Everything: This type of

player is often unheralded and

rarely gets any attention, but they

are the types you need to have a

successful team, because they can

really do a lot of different things

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well, like guard the opposition’s

best player, hit a clutch 3, run the

point when your top guard is in

foul trouble, get a bucket down

low; basically, all the little things.

The Do-Everything racehorse is

made up of more optimism than

anything else at this time of the

year, because I’m hoping that both

GIO’S CALLING and COCO IS LOCO

can take their turf form and

transfer it to the main track. The

former, a son of turf star Gio Ponti

out of a Family Calling mare, is

bred for the grass, but the way

he’s closed in both turf runs says

he’d be suited for a fast-paced dirt

route, and there’s little concern

about him going long either. Plus,

with Dynaformer on the bottom of

his pedigree, it’s not out of the

question that he can handle the

main track. Brian Lynch knows

what to do with a good horse and

anyone with a talented 3YO in their

barn automatically thinks “Can he

dirt?” so I would expect he gets a

main track try at some point at

Gulfstream this winter. COCO IS LOCO, a son of Macho Uno out of

an Indian Charlie mare, blew me

away with his wide, sustained run

to the lead en route to an easy

debut win over the grass at

Aqueduct in November. Yes, I

know it was over New York breds,

but this isn’t your dad’s Kentucky

Derby we’re talking about any

more, and as Funny Cide proved,

you can win the Derby if you’re

bred in the Empire State. Rudy

Rodriguez has a nice colt on his

hands, and one that is bred to

relish the main track, so with a

lucrative stakes program for dirt

horses in New York this winter, I

fully expect to see COCO IS LOCO

to pop up in one of them in the

very near future.

The Bench Player: How often

have we seen a star player get

hurt, only to have someone on the

bench come in and save the day?

It happens all the time, and in

racing it’s even more prevalent,

especially on the Triple Crown

Trail, when we are dealing with

fragile Thoroughbreds that are

being asked to cram a lot into a

very short period of time. If you’re

a big-name trainer, you better

have a contingency plan just in

case your star pupil heads to the

sidelines. This year’s Bench Player

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is SHAGAF for Chad Brown

(pictured), and owner Shadwell

Stable (who also own Mohaymen),

as he was

sensational winning

his debut by 6 at

Aqueduct in

November, while

going 0.79 faster

than odds-on and

experienced MSW winner

Seymourdini did two races earlier.

The son of Bernardini is out of the

Unbridled’s Song mare Muhaawara,

who is a half-sister to the

millionaire Eldaafar, who won the

G3 Greenwood Cup going 1 ½

miles on the main track at Parx.

How’s that for a 1 ¼-mile

pedigree, folks? Sure, SHAGAFprobably didn’t beat a thing at

Aqueduct, but he did it the right

way, in a fast time and was visually

impressive, so you have to think

he’s going to get a major class hike

in his next start and looks more

than a willing replacement should

GIFT BOX stub his toe.

The Walk-On: The most

unpublicized member of any

college basketball team, the Walk-

On never gets any playing time

and routinely takes all the worst of

it, as he’s the type that always has

to give up his seat to the star

player during a timeout (if he even

has a seat!) and gets beat up in

practice while serving as a scout

team player. Simply put, the walk-

on is the 100-1 shot that rarely

cracks the superfecta in a Derby

prep, let alone wins it. But every

now and then a Built for Pleasure

wins the Fountain of Youth at 143-

1 and shocks the world and

reminds us why we love (and hate)

this game. This year’s Walk-On is

VINCENTO, who looked great

winning his debut at Belmont in

October and then probably got

exposed in his last, when he was a

wide, “someone had to be 3rd” at

odds-on in an optional claimer at

Aqueduct in November. The New

York-bred is a son of Include and

out of a Grindstone mare, so the

pedigree to excel going long is

there, and with Rudy Rodriguez

calling the shots, you’ve got a top

trainer. I’m not giving up on him

just yet.

So there you have it, a nine-pack

of runners that offer a little bit of

everything. Who’s on your team?

50

51

TRIPLE CROWN

NEARLY

TRIPLED FOR

OAKLAWN PARK

By Jerry Shottenkirk

With a little more luck, Oaklawn

Park officials would have been able

to boast three Triple Crown

winners since 2004.

Of course, it’s probably enough

that the racing jewel of the mid-

south region can say it loud and

proud that American Pharoah used

the top Arkansas prep races for the

Kentucky Derby and later, of

course, became the first Triple

Crown winner since 1978.

52

But it should have been more. With

a tiny bit of racing luck, Oaklawn

could’ve flown the banners of

Smarty Jones and Alex Alfeet as

well.

Imagine that. Three Triple Crown

winners through that time would

have been unreal for the sport

overall and the bragging rights it

would’ve provided would’ve beyond

belief.

Oaklawn Park

decades ago

fought for

inclusion among

the elite in

Kentucky Derby

preps.

Oaklawn today is

elite. In 3-year-old

programs and horses it produces, it

can be held in the same vein as

California, New York, Florida and

Kentucky are envious after last

year.

Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and

other top-flight trainers often are

well-represented in the Arkansas

Derby. But it goes beyond that

single race three weeks before the

Kentucky Derby. The Southwest

Stakes and the Rebel are also

useful ‘preps for the preps’. The

Rebel is not far off at all from the

Arkansas Derby when it comes to

purse money, if not prestige.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby

(via Hot Springs) includes the

$100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 18, the G3 $500,000 Southwest

Stakes on Feb. 15, the

G2 $900,000

Rebel Stakes on

March 19 and the

G1 $1 million

Arkansas Derby on

April 16.

Oaklawn is a

different breed of

cat. While on-track

attendance isn’t en vogue at most

tracks, it’s not uncommon to see

40,000 to 60,000 fans congregate

to Hot Springs on big days. It’s

what folks want in the first quarter

of the year. It’s a resort. The

natural springs, Lake Hamilton, the

apple blossoms and rest of the

setting make it a fashionable

destination … and, oh yeah, the

horses are pretty good.

53

Pharoah the Rocket

American Pharoah is still fresh to

us. Memories are clear of the June

day at Belmont when he was so far

clear and was so majestic as he

became the first Triple Crown

winner in 37 years.

Pharoah’s skills were sharpened at

Oaklawn.

In his 1st try since September,

when he won the G1 FrontRunner

Stakes over eventual Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile winner Texas Red,

American Pharoah was sent into

the G2 Rebel Stakes and Oaklawn

fans welcomed him with their

wallets as they made him 2-5 on

the tote board. He responded with

a 6 1/4-length win that was

effortless.

Baffert said at the time that

American Pharoah had a good

chance to be the best horse he

ever trained. In the coming

months, that would ring true.

The Arkansas Derby was as easy.

American Pharoah tracked 38-1

long shot Bridget’s Big Luvy, took

command in hand and reported

home by eight lengths. He was a

1-10 betting proposition.

We know the rest of the story. But

it was Oaklawn where American

Pharoah truly spread his wings.

Clearly he was really a good one

beforehand, but he became great

at Oaklawn. And to some, he

would be become one of the

greatest.

The What Ifs

Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex never

entered those hallowed halls of

Triple Crown turfdom.

But they were, oh, so close and

were clearly the best of their

classes.

With a break or two, each

would’ve won the Triple Crown.

That is without exaggeration.

Smarty Jones was a dominant

character on the scene in 2004. A

great front runner, he came just

yards shy of the Triple Crown when

Birdstone got to him. It was the

only loss of his career.

Afleet Alex worked in reverse. After

being barely caught by 50-1 winner

54

Giacomo and 70-1 Closing Argument in the Derby, he was

dominant in the Preakness and

Belmont. His recovery from

clipping the heels of Scrappy T.

was an impressive as any sheer

demonstration of a desire to win.

Had Smarty Jones run slight slower

during the early going of the

Belmont, he would’ve been a

racing immortal. Had Afleet Alex

been closer early and had a better

timed in the stretch, he, too,

would’ve gotten the ultimate

accolades.

But weeks before Triple Crown

series, Hot Springs was where

they ate their hay.

Trainer Tim Ritchey brought Afleet

Alex to Oaklawn in '05 and maybe

he would’ve done it anyway, but

the great display by Smarty Jones

the year before could’ve had

something to do with it.

Trainer John Servis brought Smarty

Jones to Oaklawn after a maiden

win and Pennsylvania Nursery

Stakes at Philadelphia Park in

November, and the colt’s

performance in the Nursery

55

probably was the moment

when it was clear that this

one didn’t belong with

Pennsylvania-breds. He

won by 15 lengths and

moved on to bigger

challenges. After a win in

the Count Fleet Stakes at

Aqueduct on Jan. 3, the

stakes schedule at

Oaklawn was the target.

Afleet Alex was not favored in his

career debut at Delaware Park in

late June of 2004. But an 11 1/4-

length win gave more than just a

little hint of what Ritchey was

dealing. It only got better a couple

of weeks later when he beat

allowance rivals by 12 lengths.

Delaware race fans had to be sure

that it would be the last they saw

of him.

Saratoga was not a challenge as he

won the Sanford and Hopeful

Stakes, and then he suffered his

first loss – a half-length decision to

Proud Accolade at Belmont. After a

second in the Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile (to Wilko), Oaklawn was

the target.

After a sprint win in the Mountain

Valley, he finished last of six in the

Rebel. He was diagnosed with a

lung infection and all was forgiven.

Afleet Alex was favored in the

Arkansas Derby a month later and

scored by eight lengths over

Flower Alley and others. Like

Smarty Jones a year prior, he

moved onto the Triple Crown

readied in Hot Springs.

There have been years when the

Arkansas Derby winner has been

ineffective after moving on. But

since 2004, one would be

challenged to find a stronger race

on the Kentucky Derby prep scene.

– HPN

56

Jerry Shottenkirk’s Top 10

Oaklawn 3YOs Since 2004

American Pharoah (2015) –

Triple Crown winner, top 3YO

anywhere since 2004 and far

beyond. First Crown winner

since 1978 made short work of

Rebel and Arkansas Derby fields.

Afleet Alex (2005) – A lung

infection led to a last-place finish

in the Rebel. More than made up

for it with an authoritative score

in the Arkansas Derby in what

was one of the all-time great

local performances. Preakness

and Belmont wins made him a

legend.

Smarty Jones (2004) – Sharply

held off competition and entered

the Kentucky Derby unbeaten.

He kept that record intact until

he lost the Belmont and Triple

Crown in the final strides.

Curlin (2007) – Hard to find a

glitch in this one. Romped in the

Arkansas Derby after a Rebel

win and went on to become a 2-

time Horse of the Year winner.

Bodemeister (2012) – Raced

only 6 times, and he annihilated

his Arkansas Derby rivals. Was

2nd in the Kentucky Derby and

Preakness and was retired.

Lookin at Lucky (2010) – Took

the path of winning the Rebel

and then running 2nd in the

Santa Anita Derby and winning

Preakness.

Will Take Charge (2013) –

Won the Rebel, skipped the

Arkansas Derby and went on to

become a Grade 1 regular.

Hoppertunity (2014) – Skipped

the Arkansas Derby after a Rebel

win and was 2nd to California

Chrome in the SA Derby.

Secret Circle (2012) – Couldn’t

come close to Bodemeister in

the Arkansas Derby, but won the

Rebel and Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

The Factor (2011) – Cruised

home in the Rebel ahead of

eventual BC Dirt Mile winner

Caleb’s Posse. Turned into a

sprinter, but had some brilliant

appearances.

57

BALTIMOREHAS BECOMETITLE TOWN

By Jeremy Plonk

The middle jewel of Thoroughbred

racing’s Triple Crown may shine

brightest of all. True, the Kentucky

Derby rates bigger – there’s only

one first Saturday in May.

And, upon the occasion of history,

the Belmont Stakes may provide

more lifetime memories. But the

one show that consistently delivers

is the Preakness.

Championship performances don’t

always take center stage in

Louisville. And they’re even more

rare on Long Island. At Old Hilltop,

however, championship efforts on

the racetrack not only are

common, they’re expected. That’s

not hyperbole, that’s history.

Consider the hardware eclipsed

(literally) by not just Preakness

alumni, but Preakness winners:

PREAKNESS & 3YO CHAMPS

2015 American Pharoah

2014 California Chrome

2012 I’ll Have Another

2010 Lookin At Lucky

2009 Rachel Alexandra (3F)

2008 Big Brown

2007 Curlin

2006 Bernardini

2005 Afleet Alex

2004 Smarty Jones

2003 Funny Cide

2002 War Emblem

2001 Point Given

58

Since 2001, the only Preakness

winners NOT to be named 3-year-

old champion were Shackleford

(2011) and Oxbow (2013). That’s

13 out of the last 15 years! And in

those two ‘missing’ seasons, the

title went to Preakness also-rans

Animal Kingdom (’11, 2nd) and Will

Take Charge (’13, 7th).

Facts are, the only 3-year-old

champion not to

compete in the

Preakness since

1994 was Tiznow

in 2000. So while

it may be en

vogue to pass the

Preakness in preparation for the

Belmont Stakes by many modern

horsemen, that plan has been

short-sighted in success for the

final jewel. The champions battle in

Baltimore – pure and simple.

Why has the Preakness had so

much success delivering a

champion? A couple of factors

potentially are in play:

Field size normalizes.

Pimlico’s very fair surface.

Two-week turnaround.

1-3/16 miles distance.

The combination of these real

factors has produced a formful race

that allows the best to shine.

Consider that 8 of the last 11

Preakness winners have been 3-1

or less. Only 2 victors since 1911 –

yes, 2 since 1911 – have been

upsetters at 20-1 or more. If you

are fishing for a

Giacomo, Da’Tara

or Mine That Bird-

type here, you’re

banking in the

wrong direction.

Preakness fields historically have

been made up by an average of 5

Kentucky Derby alumni per year.

That average has remained nearly

identical from the 1970s, ‘80s, ‘90s,

‘00s and ‘10s today. And with an

overall field much more

manageable between 9-13 starters

annually, that gives horseplayers a

strong sense of matchups.

While you often hear about the

Churchill Downs surface being

magically souped up Derby week,

59

and Belmont

owns its

reputation

that you

either love

‘Big Sandy’ or

you don’t,

when’s the

last time you

heard a

Preakness

also-ran

trainer talk

about his or

her horse not liking the track? Neil

Drysdale called the wet track

‘greasy’ when short-priced Fusaichi

Pegasus lost in 2000, but that was

a lot of water under the bridge ago

– literally.

While the 2-week turnaround from

the Derby to Preakness often fills

interviews as banter, the reality has

been that it’s much ado about

nothing. Had it been such an

important stickling point, we would

have seen far more ‘new shooters’

have success at Pimlico than we

have. It’s been since Bernardini

in ’06 that the Preakness has been

captured by a runner NOT on a

two-week turnaround. And in the

last 30 years, the only other to

have a longer break than two

weeks and win the middle jewel

was Red Bullet in ’00.

Finally, the Preakness obviously

measures the shortest of the Triple

Crown races, 110 yards the junior

to the Kentucky Derby and 550

yards shorter than the Belmont. As

American breeding slants more to

speed than stamina, it’s only

natural that the horses produced

are more apt to appreciate the trip

at Pimlico than anywhere else.

- HPN

60

Laurel Park Winter/Spring Stakes

P.O. Box 130, Laurel, Maryland 20725 800.638.1859 • 301.725.0400 • Fax 301.725.4561 Coleman "Coley" Blind, Stakes Coordinator

CLOSES ........... RUNS ................. STAKE ..................................................... AGE .....................DISTANCE ....................... PURSEFri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........What A Summer ......................................... F&M 4 & Up .......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 GuaranteedFri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........Native Dancer ............................................ 4 & Up .................. About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 GuaranteedFri., Dec. 20 .......Sat., Jan. 2 .........Nellie Morse ............................................... F&M 4 & Up .......... About 11/16 Miles .............. $75,000 Guaranteed

Sat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Fire Plug ..................................................... 4 & Up .................. 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 GuaranteedSat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Marshua ..................................................... Fillies 3-y-o ......... 6 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 GuaranteedSat., Jan. 2 ........Sat., Jan. 16 .......Frank Whiteley, Jr. ..................................... 3-y-o .................... 7 Furlongs ....................... $75,000 Guaranteed

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Visit laurelpark.com for full racing schedule.

at Laurel Park

By Candice Hare

Following American Pharoah’s

historic “Grand Slam”

accomplishment, winning both the

Triple Crown and the Breeders’

Cup Classic, and with the news

Empire Maker will be returning

from Japan to stand in America, it

seems fitting to remember the

horse who links them together:

Unbridled.

62

A large horse with the stride of a

cheetah, Unbridled possessed the

speed of a sprinter, but was able to

harness that speed over a route. At

a time when the American

bloodstock industry was struggling,

Unbridled was its hero and

ultimately, the patriarch of one of

its most successful families.

A son of G1 Met Mile winner

Fappiano, a sire of sires through

Cryptoclearance

and Quiet

American as

well as

Unbridled,and out of a

mare by French

Derby winner

Le Fabuleux,

Unbridled had champion

bloodlines. His pedigree was not

only classy, but it was balanced,

including lines which injected both

speed and stamina.

A winner on debut at Arlington

Park, Unbridled was a serial

placegetter as a two-year-old and it

wasn’t until the G1 Florida Derby in

March of his three-year-old season

that he had his true coming of age.

While Unbridled wasn’t among the

Kentucky Derby favorites as they

loaded into the gate, by the time

racecaller Dave Johnson had

uttered his most famous line --“And down the stretch they come!” -- the big horse had

surged to the lead down the

center of the track in the easiest

fashion, cementing his status

among his crop

with a blanket

of roses (click

video to re-live

the run by

Unbridled and

magical

reaction).

The horse with a big heart only

matched in size by his stature was

a Kentucky Derby winner, and yet,

despite an additional win in the

Breeders’ Cup Classic and

subsequently adding the title of

Eclipse Champion three-year-old

male, his best successes would

come long after retirement.

63

At stud, he was an immediate

success through his first-crop

sons Grindstone and Unbridled’s

Song, with both making it to the

Kentucky Derby.

It was Grindstone, however, who

would follow in his father’s

footsteps, winning on the first

Saturday in May. The second

consecutive Derby winner for

trainer D. Wayne Lukas, he was

retired straight after the race when

found to have a knee chip. While

his racing career was cut short,

he’d go on to be a productive

stallion, siring Belmont Stakes

winner Birdstone, who himself

would become renowned as a

source of stamina after his upset

victory over Smarty Jones to win

the furthest of the three Classics.

Birdstone, amazingly, sired two

different Classic winners in the

same crop: 50-1 Kentucky Derby

shocker Mine That Bird, and the

horse who would topple him in the

Belmont, Summer Bird.

Unbridled’s other first crop

superstar was Unbridled’s Song, alarge, strapping grey who was a

star before he was even entered

for a race. A record-breaking $1.4

million purchase at the Barretts

March two-year-olds in training

sale, it was only after his Japanese

would-be buyers backed out

following a veterinary examination

that he remained in the US.

The decision to race him turned

out to be a good one, as he won

the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in

near track-record fashion in only

his third career start. He twice

stopped the show for gamblers and

fans alike with his Florida Derby

and Wood Memorial double serving

as two of the more memorable

Derby preps to this day. He was

unlucky, however, to sustain a

quarter crack in his Wood Memorial

win and with a bar-shoe fitted for

the Kentucky Derby, he was no

match for Grindstone. Regardless,

taking into account his foot issues,

poor post position, and the early

fractions he chased, it was as

admirable an effort as any.

While other sons of Unbridled

would accomplish more on track,

Unbridled’s Song served as his

64

sire’s true successor in the

breeding shed. Sons and daughters

of Unbridled’s Song earned visits to

the winner’s circle in graded stakes

races throughout the duration of

his stallion career. Missing from his

resume, however, was the winner

of a single leg of the Triple Crown.

He did, however, come close with

Dunkirk, who finished second in

the Belmont.

Unbridled, the

most recent

stallion to

have sired a

winner of

each Triple

Crown race,

got his

Preakness

glory with Red

Bullet, who, like Unbridled’s Song,

was a grandson of multiple French

G1 winner Caro. A distant second

to Fusaichi Pegasus in the G1

Wood Memorial, Red Bullet’s

connections opted to skip the

Kentucky Derby and point their

charge towards Maryland’s biggest

race. That plan paid off grandly

when, despite breaking slow and

being steadied heading onto the

backstretch, he put on a brilliant

ducking-and-weaving display under

Jerry Bailey en route to a last-to-

first 3 ¾ length victory over the

Derby winner.

The third leg of Unbridled’s sire

Triple Crown came via Empire

Maker. A Juddmonte Farms

homebred, Empire Maker

(pictured) was out of the classy El

Gran Senor mare

Toussaud, a

winner of the G3

Criterion Stakes in

England, as well as

the G1 Gamely in

America. Aside

from Empire

Maker, her progeny

also included G1

Santa Monica Handicap winner

Honest Lady -- dam of another G1

winner and successful sire First

Defence -- as well as G1

Secretariat Stakes winner

Chiselling, G2 winner and

successful California-based stallion

Decarchy, and G1 Arlington Million

winner Chester House. In addition

to his successes on track, Chester

65

House also sired Breeders’ Cup

winners Muhannak and Ventura.

While he only raced 8 times,

Empire Maker -- like his sire -- won

the G1 Florida Derby, his first top

line success. He then went on to

win the G1 Wood Memorial before

finishing second behind Funny Cide

in the Kentucky Derby. Plagued by

foot issues, Empire Maker’s

connections opted to skip the

Preakness in favor of the longer

Belmont Stakes. With Funny Cide

favored to win the Triple Crown

and heavy rainfall having left the

Belmont Park surface sloppy,

Empire Maker surged forward

turning for home and never looked

back, avenging his Kentucky Derby

defeat in the process.

In addition to Empire Maker

producing two-time Breeders’ Cup

Distaff winner Royal Delta, he had

Triple Crown success through his

progeny despite not standing in

America for any great length of

time.

Although Bodemeister didn’t win

any of the Triple Crown legs, he

was second in both the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness Stakes. His

Derby loss, in particular, is widely

viewed as one of the bravest

defeats in the race’s history, as he

succumbed late after having led at

speedy fractions. He didn’t race

again after sustaining an injury

and, after a six-race career in

which he never finished worse than

second, he was off to stud at

WinStar Farm.

Empire Maker already had almost

sired a Derby winner when

Pioneerof The Nile, owned by the

same connections as Bodemeister,

was second behind Mine That Bird

in 2009. Entering that race, he had

won four straight graded stakes

including the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

Another who had his career

prematurely cut short due to injury,

he would become best known as

the sire of Triple Crown winner

American Pharoah.

In the months following American

Pharoah’s triumphs, it was

announced that Pioneerof The

Nile’s stud fee would more than

double to $125,000.

66

**Highlighted names are descendants of Unbridled**

Kentucky Derby 1st

Kentucky Derby 2nd

Kentucky Derby 3rd

‘15 American Pharoah Firing Line Dortmund

‘14 California Chrome Commanding Curve Danza

‘13 Orb (pictured) Golden Soul Revolutionary

‘12 I’ll Have Another Bodemeister Dullahan

‘11 Animal Kingdom Nehro Mucho Macho Man

‘10 Super Saver Ice Box Paddy O’Prado

‘09 Mine That Bird Pioneerof The Nile Musket Man

‘08 Big Brown Eight Belles Denis of Cork

A sire of sires in the truest sense of

the word, Unbridled may have had

big shoes to fill, but he lives on

through his sons and many young

grandsons at stud.

In addition to the grandsons and

great-grandsons of Unbridled

already mentioned, his legacy is

carried on by several of his

relations, most notably Birdstone

and First Defence. Winner of both

the Belmont and Travers Stakes,

Birdstone’s recent runners include

G1 Stephen Foster Handicap

winner Noble Bird and Breeders’

Cup Juvenile runner-up Swipe.

First Defence has additionally

represented Unbridled via his

multiple G1-winning millionaire

Close Hatches as well as Hong

Kong G2 winner Dundonnell.

Looking towards the future,

Unbridled’s legacy will also be

67

carried on by multiple G1 winners

Will Take Charge and Liam’s Map

(pictured); the former regally

bred, being out of Broodmare of

the Year Take Charge Lady, and the

latter, who became known for his

powerful, front-running speed, out

of G3 winner Miss Macy Sue.

Despite passing away far too soon

at age 14 following a severe bout

of colic, Unbridled’s rather large

shadow is still cast over American

Thoroughbred racing with his

impact having spread far and wide.

With the class and stamina-laden

three-year-old classics his stage,

Unbridled’s legacy looks certain to

live on for years to come.

– HPN

68

Top Contenders Who Trace Back to Unbridled

Damsire Unbridled’s Song Chad Brown

Sire Birdstone Keith Desormeaux

Sire Unbridled’s Song Dale Romans

Damsire Songandaprayer Jason Servis

Grand dam Tap Your Heels Kiaran McLaughlin

69

By Jeremy Plonk

Favorites have beaten the

horseplayer’s psyche with a series

of blows the past few years that

have pinned us to the ropes. The

once-standard talking point that

the chalk wins a third of the time

has been spiked to 38-40 percent

at nearly every meet in America.

Chaos has been removed at

Keeneland, where dirt whisked

away Polytrack … and the juicy

prices that went with it. Even our

beloved first Saturday in May

hasn’t escaped the flurry of

favorites. Orb, California Chrome

and American Pharoah have

debunked the Derby’s aura of

puzzlement.

The chalk has won the Kentucky

Derby three years in a row dating

back to I’ll Have Another’s mild

upset in 2012. That hasn’t been

done since the mid-1970s when

Secretariat kicked off a troika of

winning post-time favorites.

And while I’d love to tell you it’s all

about to change, odds are (pun

intended) it won’t. Take a look at

the formful nature of the last 3

years in the 6 major final preps:

70

http://www.xpressbet.com

Prep Name

2013 Win Odds

2014 Win Odds

2015 Win Odds

Louisiana Derby 2/1 3/1 2/1

Florida Derby 5/2 3/1 9/5

Santa Anita Derby 6/1 3/5 3/5

Wood Memorial 4/5 9/1 2/1

Blue Grass Stakes 9/2 6/1 2/5

Arkansas Derby 7/2 41/1 1/9

Of the last 18 major preps run the

past 3 years, 12 of the winners

have been 5/2 or less; 15 of 17

were 6/1 or less; and 17 of 18

were single-digit odds. The two

biggest bombs in the past 3 years

were Danza at 41-1 in the 2014

Arkansas Derby and Wicked Strong

at 9-1 in the 2014 Wood Memorial

(pictured). Last year’s 6 majors

produced a ‘high’ price at 2-1 and

average win odds of even money.

72

The 2015 season was amazingly

formful on the Kentucky Derby

trail. Favorites won 14 of 24 dirt

preps on the season that offered

qualifying points for the Derby.

Their overall record of 24: 14-5-2

showed 19 in the exacta and only 3

missing the trifecta. Consider the

results of all 24 races in the table

below:

Race Name

Winner Name

WinOdds

Fav Fin

Jerome El Kabeir 1.45 1 Sham Calculator 0.6 1 Lecomte International Star 9.2 7 Smarty Jones Far Right 2.7 3 Holy Bull Upstart 2.1 2 Withers Far From Over 6.2 2 Lewis Mem’l Dortmund 0.6 1 Southwest Far Right 2.7 3 Risen Star International Star 3.8 5 Fountain of Youth (DQ) Itsaknockout 5.4 2 Gotham El Kabeir 1.3 1 Tampa Bay Derby Carpe Diem 1 1 San Felipe Dortmund 0.8 1 Rebel American Pharoah 0.4 1 Sunland Derby Firing Line 0.2 1 Florida Derby Materiality 1.8 2 UAE Derby Mubtaahij 1.2 1 Louisiana Derby International Star 2.3 1 Wood Memorial Frosted 2.2 4 Blue Grass Carpe Diem 0.4 1 Santa Anita Derby Dortmund 0.6 1 Arkansas Derby American Pharoah 0.1 1 Blue Grass Carpe Diem 0.4 1 Lexington Divining Rod 2.9 2

73

And, of course, the public didn't

miss in the Triple Crown as

American Pharoah swept the series

as the favorite in each leg

(specifically 5/2, 4/5 and 3/5).

So what do we make of all this

chaos-free racing on the trail?

Some of it likely has to do with the

modern

importance of the

Kentucky Derby

itself. While

storied horse

farms once tried to

produce and race

a Derby winner,

much of today’s

ownership buys its

prospects as

yearlings or 2-

year-olds and then

gives them to

trainers who are

enlisted with

getting to the first

Saturday in May.

Today’s trainer, as Hall of Famer D.

Wayne Lukas once told me, is

trying to sell the experience as

much as anything to owners. Get

them to the big ball, let them feel

the magic of being there and its

importance, and you’ve hooked a

auction/sales buyer for years to

come.

The Kentucky Derby has morphed

into a recruiting tool as much as a

winning objective. With that said,

it’s not about building a foundation

slowly from January through April

to peak on Derby Day, it’s about

winning races along

the way to get

there.

If trainers and

owners set the bar

of just getting to

the Derby as the

achievement, then

the trickledown

effect has been that

contenders appear

fewer and fewer

times on the trail.

What used to be a 3

or 4-prep season

now has become a

2 or 3-prep season.

There are no giveaway races in

these cases; you can’t come out

lollygagging in your 3-year-old

debut if given only a few chances

to make the lineup. Spots must be

achievable to win as much as they

are appropriate for a horse’s

current form cycle.

74

The misguided race to acquire

qualification for the Kentucky

Derby field also has been a major

influence on the prep trail. Horses

are divided across the country

looking for easier spots to gain

qualifying points, or to separate

from major stablemates.

Where you once would have seen a

coupling or multiple entries from

the same barn in a major prep,

now they are separated to try and

accrue sufficient points to land in

the Top 20. Bob Baffert kept his

stars American Pharoah and

Dortmund apart last year until

meeting in Louisville, where they

finished first and third. Consider

that in 1998 he ran Indian Charlie

and Real Quiet against one another

in the Santa Anita Derby.

But there’s one elephant in the room few talk about: Rarely ever is

the 20-horse limit even in play for

any runners of significance.

But the faux pressure to make the

first Saturday in May has made for

interesting fodder and media/fan

discussion … both in the graded-

stakes earnings era, as well as the

current points system, which has

been in play for two absolutely

inconsequential years. – C2C

BIGGEST PREP

UPSETTERS TO MAKE

KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD

(1955-present)

Rockamundo 1993 Arkansas Derby

108-1

Danza 2014 Arkansas Derby

41-1

Rockwall 1982 California Derby

41-1

Stately Victor 2010 Blue Grass

40-1

Friends Lake 2004 Florida Derby

37-1

Current Hope 1983 Flamingo

37-1

Dust Commander 1970 Blue Grass

35-1 (won Kentucky Derby)

75

Date Stakes Distance Track Derby Points

Jan 2 Mucho Macho Man * 1 Mile GP

Jan 2 G3 Hutcheson * 6 Furlongs GP

Jan 2 Dania Beach (turf) * 7-1/2 furlongs GP

Jan 2 G3 Jerome 1 Mile 70Yd Aqu 10-4-2-1

Jan 9 G3 Sham 1 Mile SA 10-4-2-1

Jan 16 G3 Lecomte 1 Mile 70Yd FG 10-4-2-1

Jan 16 Frank Whitley, Jr. * 7 Furlongs Lrl

Jan 16 California Derby (syn) * 1 1/16 Miles GG

Jan 18 Smarty Jones 1 Mile OP 10-4-2-1

Jan 23 Pasco * 7 furlongs Tam

Jan 30 G2 Holly Bull 1 1/16 Miles GP 10-4-2-1

Jan 30 Kitten’s Joy (turf) * 1 Mile GP

Jan 30 G2 Swale * 7 Furlongs GP

Jan 30 WEBN Stakes * 6-1/2 Furlongs TP

Jan 30 California Cup Derby * (CA) 1 1/16 Miles SA

Jan 30 Riley Allison Derby * 1 mile Sun

Feb 6 G3 Robert B. Lewis 1 1/16 Miles SA 10-4-2-1

Feb 13 G3 Withers 1 1/16 Miles Aqu 10-4-2-1

Feb 13 G3 El Camino Real (syn) 1 1/8 Miles GG 10-4-2-1

Feb 13 G3 Sam F. Davis 1 1/16 Miles Tam

Feb 15 G3 Southwest 1 1/16 Miles OP 10-4-2-1

Feb 15 Miracle Wood * 1 Mile Lrl

Feb 15 G2 San Vicente 7 Furlongs SA

Feb 20 Mine That Bird 1 1/16 Miles Sun

Feb 20 G2 Risen Star 1 1/16 Miles FG 50-20-10-5

Feb 20 Turf Paradise Derby * 1 1/16 Miles TuP

Feb 27 G2 Fountain of Youth 1 1/16 Miles GP 50-20-10-5

Feb 27 G3 Palm Beach (turf) * 1 1/8 Miles GP

Feb 27 Battalgia Mem. (syn)* 1 1/16 Miles TP

Mar 12 G3 Gotham 1 1/16 Miles Aqu 50-20-10-5

Mar 12 G2 San Felipe 1 1/16 Miles SA 50-20-10-5

Mar 12 G2 Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16 Miles Tam 50-20-10-5

Mar 12 Private Terms * 1 1/8 Miles Lrl

Mar 19 G2 Rebel 1 1/16 Miles OP 50-20-10-5

Mar 20 G3 Sunland Derby 1 1/8 Miles Sun 50-20-10-5

Mar 26 UAE Derby * 1 3/16 Miles Mey 100-40-20-10

Mar 26 G2 Louisiana Derby 1 1/8 Miles FG 100-40-20-10

Apr 2 G1 Florida Derby 1 1/8 Miles GP 100-40-20-10

Apr 2 G3 Spiral (syn) 1 1/8 Miles TP 50-20-10-5

Apr 2 Rushaway (syn) * 1 1/16 Miles TP

Apr 9 G1 Wood Memorial 1 1/8 Miles Aqu 100-40-20-10

Apr 9 G1 Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 Miles SA 100-40-20-10

Apr 9 G1 Blue Grass 1 1/8 Miles Kee 100-40-20-10

Apr 9 Federico Tesio 1 1/16 Miles Pim

Apr 16 G1 Arkansas Derby 1 1/8 Miles OP 100-40-20-10

Apr 16 G3 Lexington 1 1/16 Miles Kee 10-4-2-1

Apr 16 G3 Illinois Derby 1 1/8 Miles Haw

May 7 G1 Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ Miles CD

May 14 G2 Peter Pan 1 1/8 Miles Bel

May 21 G1 Preakness 1 3/16 Miles Pim

June 11 G1 Belmont Stakes 1 ½ Miles Bel (*) denotes races are not previewed in the Preseason Annual.

76

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77

JEROME STAKESJanuary 2, 2016

Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: New York’s first of 4 route dirt preps that culminate in the Wood Memorial. This 1 mile and 70-yard affair on the inner-dirt course can be largely impacted by Mother Nature. A mild winter increases its quality; a nasty winter diminishes it to nearly all locals.

The traditional fall meet race moved to spring in 2011 and then to its current winter position in 2013. Locally based outfits have won all 3 editions since the January calendar move. The Jerome has been more apt to produce top sprinters like Vyjack, Discreet Cat, The Lumber Guy and Silver Train, no matter the date it has been contested.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: El Kabeir (pictured) kicked off his 3YO season in easy, winning fashion as the 7-5 favorite over 7 rivals, none of which would go on to compete in the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Only 2 horses, Vyjack and Matuszak, have made Triple Crown race bids since the Jerome moved to January 3 years ago. It also produced a BC Sprint winner (The Lumber Guy, ’12) and a Preakness third during its 2-year run in April. Triple Crown alumni since 2011 include:

Ky Derby: Vyjack (18th, ’13).

Preakness: Astrology (3rd, ’11).

Belmont: Vyjack (8th, ’13), Matuszak (DNF, ’14).

78

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Jerome Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Terranova 101’14 Noble Moon I. Ortiz Jr. Gyarmati 95’13 Vyjack C. Velasquez R. Rodriguez 93’12 The Lumber Guy Luzzi Hushion 96’11 Adios Charlie Maragh Hough 101’09 Girolamo A. Garcia bin Suroor 105’08 Tale of Ekati C. Velasquez Tagg 100’07 Daaher Luzzi McLaughlin 109’06 Discreet Cat Gomez Bin Suroor 112’05 Silver Train Prado R. Dutrow 110

Winning Preps for Last 10 Jerome Winners ’15 El Kabeir 1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD)’14 Noble Moon 3rd Nashua Stakes (Aqu)’13 Vyjack 1st Overnight Stakes (Aqu) ’12 The Lumber Guy 5th Wood Memorial (Aqu)’11 Adios Charlie 1st Allowance (GP)’09 Girolamo Race held after the Triple Crown. ’08 Tale of Ekati Race held after the Triple Crown. ’07 Daaher Race held after the Triple Crown. ’06 Discreet Cat Race held after the Triple Crown. ’05 Silver Train Race held after the Triple Crown.

INSIDE THE JEROME STAKES: Parx-based invaders have run second each of the past 3 years since the winter move (Classic Giacnroll, Siete de Oros, Nasa). The last 4 winners have all been close to the pace and 4 straight have exited stakes or overnight stakes attempts.

79

SHAM STAKES January 9, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The first route prep leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, last year’s Sham drew 8 entrants after only 14 competed in the previous 3 years combined. The Dec. 19 Los Alamitos Futurity is run just 3 weeks prior.

Though the Sham inaugurated in 2001, it has been a January mile since 2011 after once being a 9-furlong test later in the meet. The race has become a middle-distance haven with eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winners Tapizar and Goldencents (pictured) among its alumni, as well as BC Sprint champ Secret Circle.

The Sham is named for the 1973 star 3-year-old who ran second to Secretariat in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Calculator, away since chasing American Pharoah in September, returned an easy 4-1/4 length winner. The 3-5 favorite didn’t face any runners who would go on to perform in the Triple Crown. Calculator was injured thereafter and did not move along the trail.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Let’s look at only the 5 years at a shorter distance in January to compare apples to apples. Outside of Goldencents, the Sham has whiffed in its attempt to be relevant on the big stage.

Ky Derby: Goldencents (17th, ’13)

Preakness: Goldencents (5th, ’13)

Belmont: none

80

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Calculator Trujillo Miller 100’14 Midnight Hawk Smith Baffert 97’13 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 93’12 Out of Bounds Gomez Harty 105’11 Tapizar Gomez Asmussen 103’10 Alphie’s Bet Solis Barba 94’09 The Pamplemousse Solis Canani 97’08 Colonel John Gomez Harty 90’07 Ravel Gomez M. McCarthy 102’06 Bob And John Espinoza Baffert 106

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners ’15 Calculator 2nd FrontRunner (SA)’14 Midnight Hawk 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP)’13 Goldencents 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) ’12 Out of Bounds 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP)’11 Tapizar 1st Maiden (CD)’10 Alphie’s Bet 1st Maiden (SA)’09 The Pamplemousse 1st San Rafael (SA)’08 Colonel John 2nd CashCall Futurity (Hol/BHP) ‘07 Ravel 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP)’06 Bob And John 1st Allowance (SA)

INSIDE THE SHAM STAKES:

Horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile have won 5 straight. 9 of last 11 Sham winners exited prep victories (4 of last 6 exiting maiden breakers). Since moving to January, the Sham winners have respectively made 1, 4, 2, 4 and 4 prior career starts. Trainer Bob Baffert has 1 win and 2 seconds in the past 3 editions in which he’s had a starter (Midnight Hawk, Den’s Legacy and Secret Circle).

81

LECOMTE STAKES January 16, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The same weekend as the region’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the Lecomte opens Fair Grounds’ 3-race prep schedule. Over the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, the two races compete for many of the same-type runners and each are middle-distance races around 2 turns.

The Lecomte has been a fairly even split of local horses who are taking a class rise into the stakes ranks as well as proven stakes commodities from their 2YO seasons.

At a mile and 70 yards in distance, the Lecomte serves as a similar rehearsal for the Risen Star (1-1/16 miles) en route to the Louisiana Derby (1-1/8 miles). For many young horses, this will be their first test of a demanding, lengthy stretch run at FG.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: International Star kicked off what would wind up a sweep of the FG sophomore series with a 9-1 upset. Ken Ramsey (pictured) added to his Lecomte score a year prior (Vicar’s In Trouble) while besting a field that included 2015 Breeders’ Cup Sprint hero Runhappy.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: International Star was injured in the days leading up to last year’s TC. It’s been hit or miss of late.

Ky Derby: War Story (16th, ’15), Vicar’s In Trouble (19th, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Oxbow (6th, ’13), Friesan Fire (18th, ’09), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07),

Preakness: Oxbow (1st, ’13), Friesan Fire (10th, ‘09), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07)

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ’07)

82

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 International Star Mena Maker 94 ’14 Vicar’s In Trouble Napravnik Maker 88 ’13 Oxbow Court Lukas 94 ’12 Mr Bowling Albarado L. Jones 95 ’11 Wilkinson Gomez Howard 92 ’10 Ron the Greek Graham Amoss 98 ’09 Friesan Fire Saez L. Jones 97 ’08 Z Fortune Bridgmohan Asmussen 99 ’07 Hard Spun Pino L. Jones 101 ’05 Storm Surge Albarado D. Stewart 93

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners ’15 International Star 4th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD)’14 Vicar’s In Trouble 1st Maiden (FG)’13 Oxbow 4th CashCall Futurity (BHP)’12 Mr Bowling 3rd Iroquois Stakes (CD)’11 Wilkinson 3rd Allowance (FG)’10 Ron the Greek 4th Springboard Mile (RP)’09 Friesan Fire 2nd Allowance (FG)’08 Z Fortune 1st Allowance (Aqu)’07 Hard Spun 1st PA Nursery(Pha/Prx)’05 Storm Surge 1st Sugar Bowl (FG)

INSIDE THE LECOMTE STAKES:

12 of the last 14 Lecomte winners were less than 3 lengths behind after the opening half-mile. 12 of the last 14 Lecomte winners were 5-1 or less. The race was not held in 2006 following Hurricane Katrina. Since ’07, it’s produced at least 1 Triple Crown starter every year except ’12.

83

SMARTY JONES STAKES January 18, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: While not yet a graded stakes, the Smarty Jones quickly has asserted itself as the kickoff to Oaklawn’s highly successful 4-race series for 3YOs. The 2-turn mile utilizes the sixteenth pole finish line, but deep closers Far Right, Caleb’s Posse, Will Take Charge and Flat Out all dot the winner’s roll call. Held on the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday card, the Smarty Jones competes directly the same holiday weekend with Fair Grounds’ Lecomte Stakes for horses. The Smarty Jones is named for the 2004 Ky Derby and Preakness winner who rose to stardom via Oaklawn’s series of preps. He earned a $5 million Centennial bonus during the track’s 100th season by winning the Arkansas Derby and Ky Derby.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In last-to-first fashion, Far Right (pictured) rallied up the fence for a sharp score over Bayerd and 6-5 chalk Mr. Z. Far Right would go on to add the Southwest and run 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Smarty Jones hasn’t had the immediate TC results over its 8 years as its graded brethren on the OP trail.

Ky Derby: Mr. Z (13th, ’15), Far Right (15th, ’15), Will Take Charge (8th, ’13), Optimizer (11th, ’12), Archarcharch (dnf, ’11)

Preakness: Mr. Z (5th, ’15), Will Take Charge (7th, ’13), Optimizer (6th, ’12)

Belmont: Will Take Charge (10th, ’13), Optimizer (10th, ’12)

84

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Smarty Jones Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Far Right Smith Moquett 92’14 Tanzanite Cat Arroyo Autrey 92 ’13 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 93 ’12 Junebugred Bravo Hobby 91 ’11 Caleb’s Posse Razo DK Von Hemel 85 ’10 Dryfly Borel Whiting 95 ’09 Flat Out JuGarcia Dickey 96 ’08 Liberty Bull Razo Amoss 92

Winning Preps for Smarty Jones Winners ’15 Far Right 3rd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) ’14 Tanzanite Cat 1st Maiden (FG)’13 Will Take Charge 2nd Springboard Mile (RP)’12 Junebugred 1st Maiden (Aqu)’11 Caleb’s Posse 7th Springboard Mile (RP)’10 Dryfly 1st Allowance (CD)’09 Flat Out 1st Maiden (FG)’08 Liberty Bull 2nd Sugar Bowl (FG)

INSIDE THE SMARTY JONES STAKES:

Remington Park’s Springboard Mile in December has been a strong launching pad for the Smarty Jones with back-to-back runner-ups the past 2 years, and, prior to that, it delivered the 2013 and 2011 winners. Half of its 8 winners to date were rising in class from the maiden and allowance ranks. Only eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Caleb’s Posse (2011) has won the Smarty Jones exiting an off-the-board finish in his most recent start. In each of the past 4 years, the post time favorite has finished third (Mr. Z in 2015, Coastline in 2014, Always In A Tiz in 2013 and On Fire Baby in 2012) – all at odds below 2-1. The favorite hasn’t won this race since Dryfly in2010 and the chalk is 8: 2-0-4 in the Smarty Jones all-time.

85

HOLY BULL January 30, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The 2nd of 4 major dirt routes on the Gulfstream trail, the Holy Bull offers the first 2-turn test for the circuit. Over the past decade, this race has been moved several times in distance and date. It’s morphed into a popular 3YO return date for star juveniles, many away since the Breeders’ Cup. Notable returnees here in recent years include champions Shanghai Bobby and Hansen, as well as Cairo Prince and Upstart. With a short run to the first turn and a sixteenth-pole finish line, early speed and post position can be important factors. Holy Bull winners have been less likely to carry their form all season.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Upstart (pictured) romped by 5-1/2 lengths in his 3YO debut over a field that featured 4 eventual Kentucky Derby starters as well as Belmont Stakes 2-3 finishers Frosted and Keen Ice.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since its move to January, Holy Bull alumni have yet to win in TC. Consider that span (2009-’15):

Ky Derby: Frosted (4th, ’15), Keen Ice (7th, ’15), Frammento (11th, ’15), Upstart (18th, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Intense Holiday (12th, ’14), Itsmyluckyday (15th, ’13), Frac Daddy (16th, ’13), Hansen (9th, ’12), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11), Dialed In (8th ’11), Jackson Bend (12th, ’10), Homeboykris (16th, ’10), West Side Bernie (9th, ’09).

Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Dialed In (4th, ’11), Mucho Macho Man (6th, ’11), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10), Aikenite (10th, ’10).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15), Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Frammento (5th, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Frac Daddy (14th, ’13), My Adonis (8th, ’12), Mucho Macho Man (7th, ’11).

86

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Upstart J. Ortiz Violette 105’14 Cairo Prince L. Saez McLaughlin 98’13 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo Plesa 106’12 Algorithms Castellano Pletcher 105’11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 104’10 Winslow Homer Dominguez T. Dutrow 95’09 Saratoga Sinner Leparoux Kenneally 102’08 Hey Byrn C. Lopez Plesa 90’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C. Velasquez Tagg 103’06 Barbaro Prado Matz 104

Winning Preps for Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners ’15 Upstart 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) ’14 Cairo Prince 2nd Remsen (Aqu)’13 Itsmyluckyday 1st Gulfstream Derby (GP) ’12 Algorithms 1st Allowance (GP)’11 Dialed In 1st Maiden (CD)’10 Winslow Homer 1st Allowance (Pha/Prx) ’09 Saratoga Sinner 1st Maiden (GP)’08 Hey Byrn 1st Allowance (GP)’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz 1st Remsen (Aqu)’06 Barbaro 1st Tropical Park Derby (Crc)

INSIDE THE HOLY BULL STAKES: 10 straight winners exited Top-3 finishes in their most-recent prep, including 8 last-out winners. The last 3 years – when the race has been 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns – all 3 winners were within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Only 2 of the 9 trifecta placings the past 3 years have been secured by horses who had exited preps at the local GP meet – 7 were shippers/layoff types.

87

LEWIS MEMORIAL

February 6, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Formerly known as the Santa Catalina Stakes, the Lewis Memorial follows the Sham on the SoCal path as the second of four major preps leading into the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. It’s 1-1/16 miles distance and spacing from December’s G1 Los Al Futurity and October’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile make it an effective starting out point for big-timers. Early speed has been very effective in this race with smaller field sizes.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten Dortmund advanced to 4-for-4 while making his 3YO debut. The 3-5 favorite once again outslugged Los Al Futurity rival Firing Line despite losing the lead in the stretch.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Ferdinand and I’ll Have Another are the most recognizable winners of this prep to taste spring success. Last year’s 1-2 finishers would come back to chase home American Pharoah on the first Saturday in May. From 1993-2015, its TC impact has been sparse. Top performances include:

Ky Derby: Firing Line (2nd, ’15), Dortmund (3rd, ’15), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Pioneeerof The Nile (2nd, ’08), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Preakness: I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Belmont: None.

88

Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 101’14 Candy Boy Stevens Sadler 97’13 Flashback Leparoux Baffert 95’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 102’11 Anthony’s Cross Rosario Harty 93’10 Caracortado Atkinson Machowsky 96 (s)’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 96 (s)’08 Crown of Thorns Espinoza Mandella 94 (s)’07 Great Hunter Nakatani O’Neill 100’06 Brother Derek Solis Hendricks 102

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners ’15 Dortmund 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) ’14 Candy Boy 2nd CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) ’13 Flashback 1st Maiden (BHP/Hol)’12 I’ll Have Another 6th Hopeful (SAR)’11 Anthony’s Cross 3rd Sham (SA)’10 Caracortado 1st Cal Breeders Champ (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st CashCall Futurity (Hol) ’08 Crown of Thorns 1st Maiden (SA)’07 Great Hunter 3rd BC Juvenile (CD)’06 Brother Derek 1st San Rafael (SA)

INSIDE THE LEWIS MEMORIAL STAKES:

4 of the last 11 winners exited the Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly the Hollywood/CashCall Futurity), including last year’s 1-2 finishers … 10 of the last 12 Lewis winners exited serious stakes preps, while field sizes have been limited (5-7-4-8-7 starters the last 5 years). The race is named for the late Bob Lewis (pictured previous page), who, with his wife, Beverly, raced and campaigned such stalwarts as Silver Charm.

89

WITHERS STAKES Feburary 13, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: NYRA’s path now includes the Jerome, Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial. This second leg moved on the stakes schedule 4 years ago after several years as an April stakes on the outer dirt track and one year in asylum (2011).

Trainers Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin have combined to win 6 of the last 8 editions of the Withers and have supported the race no matter where it falls on the calendar.

Each of the 4 winners since moving to a winter date have been Aqueduct-prepped and NYRA-based performers. In the last 3 years, all but 2 starters have been horses exiting races at the Big A meet. The Withers has struggled with field sizes as a winter stakes (6,8,6,6 starters).

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In his second lifetime start, Far From Over (pictured) added to his Aqu maiden debut win with a 6-1 upset of odds-on favorite El Kabeir. The latter had exited a short-priced score in the Jerome in January.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: When in April, the Withers springboarded horses like Bernardini and Scrappy T to strong Preakness showings. In 2012-’15, as a winter prep:

Ky Derby: Tencendur (17th, ’15), Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’13), Alpha (12th, ’12), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13).

Preakness: none.

Belmont: Samraat (6th, ’14), Revolutionary (5th, ’13).

90

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Far From Over Franco Pletcher 96’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 96’12 Alpha Dominguez McLaughlin 100’10 Afleet Again Mariano Reid 109’09 Mr. Fantasy Migliore McLaughlin 103’08 Harlem Rocker Coa Pletcher 96’07 Divine Park Garcia McLaughlin 97’06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani 110’05 Scrappy T Arroyo Bailes 106

Winning Preps for Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners ’15 Far From Over 1st Maiden (Aqu)’14 Samraat 1st Damon Runyon (Aqu) ’13 Revolutionary 1st Maiden (Aqu)’12 Alpha 1st Count Fleet (Aqu)’10 Afleet Again 10th Gotham (Aqu)’09 Mr. Fantasy 3rd Gotham (Aqu)’08 Harlem Rocker 1st Allowance (GP)’07 Divine Park 1st Allowance (Kee)’06 Bernardini 1st Maiden (GP)’05 Scrappy T 3rd Wood Memorial (Aqu)

INSIDE THE WITHERS STAKES:

Heavy favorites have been the recent norm as its 4 winter-time editions have had chalks at 1-5, 1-5, 3-5 and 6-5 (with 3 of those winning, but 1-5 El Kabeir finishing second a year ago). Since moving to January, none of its 4 editions has been won wire to wire, while Far From Over and Revolutionary notably scored in last-to-first fashion.

91

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY

February 13, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Northern California’s only graded stakes en route to the Triple Crown, the El Camino Real Derby gets its field from the listed California Derby at Golden Gate, from class risers at the meet and a smattering of second-tier Santa Anita sophomores. It’s among the earliest 1 1/8 miles distance tests of the season and the mileage here often gives its winners a sense of belonging on the trail as trips extend. It’s the only Triple Crown trail race in the US on Tapeta.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Decidedly down a year ago, the ECR Derby didn’t produce a single Triple Crown starter among its 10 entrants. Metaboss (pictured) rallied to a comfortable win and kept the Santa Anita pipeline going, but disappointed when 6th in the Spiral next time out.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since going to synthetic in 2009, not a single El Camino Real Derby alumnus has hit the board in a Triple Crown race. That’s a far cry from the ‘dirty’ 1990s that included Charismatic, Tabasco Cat, Casual Lies and Cavonnier. Here’s the Tapeta Era’s ledger:

Ky Derby: Chocolate Candy (5th, ’09), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11), Daddy Nose Best (10th, ’12), Dance With Fate (6th, ’14).

Preakness: Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12).

Belmont: Chocolate Candy (9th, ’09).

92

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 El Camino Real Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Metaboss Solis Bonde 93’14 Tamarando R. Baze Hollendorfer 90’13 Dice Flavor Valdivia Gallagher 93’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 92’11 Silver Medallion R. Baze Asmussen 91’10 Connemara R. Baze Pletcher 85’09 Chocolate Candy R. Baze Hollendorfer 88’08 Autism Awareness Contreras Vallejo 94 (d)’07 Bwana Bull R. Baze Hollendorfer 93 (d)’06 Cause to Believe R. Baze Hollendorfer 99 (d)

Winning Preps for Last 10 El Camino Real Derby Winners ’15 Metaboss 1st Maiden (SA)’14 Tamarando 2nd Cal Cup Derby (SA)’13 Dice Flavor 3rd Allowance (SA)’12 Daddy Nose Best 1st Eddie Logan (SA)’11 Silver Medallion 1st Eddie Logan (SA)’10 Connemara 2nd California Derby (GG) ’09 Chocolate Candy 1st California Derby (GG) ’08 Autism Awareness 1st Maiden (GG)’07 Bwana Bull 1st California Derby (GG) ’06 Cause to Believe 2nd San Miguel (SA)

INSIDE THE EL CAMINO REAL DERBY:

With a record 9 wins in this race, jockey Russell Baze has tallied 7 of those in just the last 11 editions. The last 5 winners all came north from Santa Anita, 4 of those coming off of turf preps most recently. Since going to Tapeta in 2009, all 7 El Camino Real Derby winners have rallied from at least fourth place or farther behind in the early going.

93

SAM F. DAVIS February 13, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Held 4 weeks before the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam F. Davis is the track’s lone 2-turn prep for its spring main event. But the Davis has not been part of the Kentucky Derby qualifying points chase, and could struggle to attract the kind of stars it once did with The Cliff's Edge, Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday in the mid-2000s.

The Davis also benefitted for a time when the Fountain of Youth was elongated to 9 furlongs and the classier Florida shippers from Gulfstream Park found this spot more suitable early in the season at 1-1/16 miles. Inaugurated in 1981, only 5 Davis winners have gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby, and none since 2001.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In just his second lifetime start, debut maiden winner Ocean Knight

(pictured) beat a field of 11 rivals that included eventual Preakness 3rd-place finisher Divining Rod. The winner flopped upon his return in the Tampa Bay Derby (7th).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Davis alumni to contest the Triple Crown races since ’08:

Ky Derby: Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (10th, ’09), Big Truck (18th, ’08), Smooth Air (11th, ’08), Z Humor (14th, ’08).

Preakness: Divining Rod (3rd, ’15), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10), Musket Man (3rd, ’09), General Quarters (9th, ’09).

Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Ocean Knight I. Ortiz McLaughlin 95’14 Vinceremos Prado Pletcher 92’13 Falling Sky J.Espinoza Terranova 92’12 Battle Hardened Leparoux Kenneally 91’11 Brethren Dominguez Pletcher 94’10 Rule Velazquez Pletcher 104’09 General Quarters Lopez M. Miller 100’08 Fierce Wind C. Velasquez Zito 96’07 Any Given Saturday Velazquez Pletcher 97’06 Bluegrass Cat Velazquez Pletcher 101

Winning Preps for Last 10 Davis Stakes Winners ’15 Ocean Knight 1st Maiden (Aqu)’14 Vinceremos 1st Maiden (GP)’13 Falling Sky 1st Allowance (Tam)’12 Battle Hardened 2nd Maiden (GP)’11 Brethren 1st Allowance (CD)’10 Rule 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) ’09 General Quarters 2nd Pasco (Tam)’08 Fierce Wind 1st Allowance (GP)’07 Any Given Saturday 2nd Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’06 Bluegrass Cat 1st Remsen (Aqu)

INSIDE THE SAM F. DAVIS STAKES:

10 straight Davis winners exited a 1st or 2nd-place finish most recently, so a “now” horse gets an edge over one looking for a rebound. There’s a real tendency for the public to over-value a race over the always-labeled “quirky” Tampa Bay Downs surface, so be sure to note that only 2 of the past 10 Davis winners had tuned-up locally. Forwardly placed horses have dominated the recent history of this race.

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SOUTHWEST STAKES February 15, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The second of Oaklawn’s 4 route preps leading up to the Triple Crown, the Southwest takes place President’s Day Monday and assumes center stage nationally. The first graded stakes on the local menu, it was extended to 1-1/16 miles from a flat mile in 2013. Unlike the Smarty Jones Stakes before it, the Southwest utilizes the full stretch and traditional finish line.

Huge fields are the norm since 2008 – each year featuring 10 or more starters (11 a year ago; split divisions in 2012 with 21 total entrants). D. Wayne Lukas (pictured) has saddled beaten favorites in the past 2 editions (Mr. Z and Strong Mandate, 3rd and 2nd, respectively).

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Smarty Jones winner Far Right pulled a carbon copy with another rail rally. Under Mike Smith, he collared favored Mr. Z and outkicked The Truth Or Else.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Recent Southwest alumni include elder stars Will Take Charge, Caleb’s Posse and Flat Out, but it’s also produced strongly in the TC with placings since ’04 by:

Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08).

Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14).

Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Far Right Smith Moquett 93’14 Tapiture Santana Asmussen 99’13 Super Ninety Nine Bejarano Baffert 101’12 Castaway Bejarano Baffert 97’12 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 103’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 93’10 Conveyance Garcia Baffert 102’09 Old Fashioned Dominguez L. Jones 97’08 Denis of Cork Albarado D. Carroll 99’07 Teuflesberg Elliott Sanders 102’06 Lawyer Ron McKee R. Holthus 99

Winning Preps for Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners ’15 Far Right 1st Smarty Jones (OP)’14 Tapiture 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’13 Super Ninety Nine 1st Allowance (SA)’12 Castaway 1st Maiden (SA)’12 Secret Circle 2nd Sham (SA)’11 Archarcharch 4th Smarty Jones (OP)’10 Conveyance 1st San Rafael (SA)’09 Old Fashioned 1st Remsen (Aqu)’08 Denis of Cork 1st Allowance (FG)’07 Teuflesberg 3rd LeComte (FG)’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Risen Star (LaD)

INSIDE THE SOUTHWEST STAKES:

Be alert for the possibility of an off track this time of year as we had sloppy/sealed surfaces for the Southwest in 2013 and 2015. Bob Baffert waited for later races in the series to appear at Oaklawn the past 2 years, but note his last 2 Southwest invasions netted 3 victories (sweeping split divisions in 2012, and winning again in 2013).

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SAN VICENTE STAKES February 15, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Because sprint races no longer are eligible as Ky Derby qualifiers, the 7-furlong San Vicente could struggle to maintain its historical relevance. The last 6 editions have not topped 7 entrants, and mostly have featured sprinters. But Texas Red a year ago and potentially Nyquist this year are trying to change that. Those in the gate have been met with dominance from trainers Bob Baffert and John Sadler, who have combined to win this race the last 8 years and 11 of the last 13. Baffert has won the race 9 times since 1997.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The Baffert/Sadler dominance continued when Lord Nelson (pictured) gave the former his 4th

win in this race in 5 years. Lord Nelson held off the late rally of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red in that rival’s 3YO debut as 3-5 favorite.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Silver Charm used the return sprint here to launch his Derby-Preakness campaign of 1997. Since 2004, here’s the diminished run-down:

Ky Derby: Creative Cause (5th, ’12), Sidney’s Candy (17th, ’10), Sinister Minister (16th, ’06), Don’t Get Mad (4th, ’05), Imperialism (3rd, ‘04).

Preakness: Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), Sway Away (12th, ’11), Imperialism (5th, ’04).

Belmont: None.

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Lord Nelson Bejarano Baffert 98’14 Kobe’s Back Rosario Sadler 97’13 Shakin It Up Flores Baffert 92’12 Drill Garcia Baffert 103’11 The Factor Garcia Baffert 104’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 95’09 Evita Argentina Gomez Sadler 93’08 Georgie Boy Bejarano Walsh 106’07 Noble Court Nakatani Sadler 90’06 Too Much Bling Gomez Baffert 98

Winning Preps for Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners ’15 Lord Nelson 5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD)’14 Kobe’s Back 10th CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) ’13 Shakin It Up 3rd Hollywood Prevue (BHP/Hol) ’12 Drill 5th San Pedro (SA)’11 The Factor 1st Maiden (SA)’10 Sidney’s Candy 4th Allowance (SA)’09 Evita Argentina 2nd Santa Ynez (SA)’08 Georgie Boy 1st Del Mar Futurity (Dmr) ’07 Noble Court 3rd San Miguel (SA)’06 Too Much Bling 1st San Miguel (SA)

INSIDE THE SAN VICENTE STAKES:

3 straight San Vicente winners were making their first start of the Santa Anita meet. After being moved up on the calendar in 2015, the race returns to its more customary spot in mid-February. 6 of the last 7 San Vicente winners exited defeats and righted the ship with 4 of those coming off of off-the-board finishes.

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RISEN STAR STAKES February 20, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Sandwiched an even 5 weeks between the Lecomte Stakes and Louisiana Derby, the Risen Star keeps Fair Grounds hopefuls on an even prep path. It’s 1-1/16 miles distance also splits the difference between its bookend stakes counterparts at 1 mile and 70 yards and 1-1/8 miles. Competition for horses in Florida and Arkansas is real with the Risen Star, which splits its field with the Fountain of Youth and Southwest. Last year’s field of 9 was the smallest in 8 years, so give credit where it’s due to the racing office. The past 2 editions have averaged 6 different last prep locales.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Lecomte winner International Star (pictured) added the 2nd leg of his eventual FG sweep. Imperia, 3-2

favorite in his first start at 3, never fired in fifth. Among those in the Risen Star lineup also were eventual Triple Crown race players War Story and Belmont Stakes third-place finisher Keen Ice.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Risen Star has been on the rise of late with 3 straight years producing a top-3 finisher in a Triple Crown race, even with last year’s winner International Star having been injured:

Ky Derby: Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13),

Preakness: Oxbow (1st, ’13), Mylute (3rd, ’13)

Belmont: Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Oxbow (2nd, ’13).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 International Star Mena Maker 97’14 Intense Holiday Smith Pletcher 99’13 Ive Struck a Nerve Graham Desormeaux 99’12 El Padrino Castellano Pletcher 101’11 Mucho Macho Man Maragh Ritvo 97’10 Discreetly Mine Castellano Pletcher 97’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 100’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 96’07 Notional Albarado O’Neill 100’06 Lawyer Ron McKee R. Holthus 105

Winning Preps for Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners ’15 International Star 1st Lecomte (FG)’14 Intense Holiday 3rd Holy Bull (GP)’13 Ive Struck a Nerve 4th Lecomte (FG)’12 El Padrino 1st Allowance (GP)’11 Mucho Macho Man 4th Holy Bull (GP)’10 Discreetly Mine 4th Spectacular Bid (GP) ’09 Friesan Fire 1st Lecomte (FG)’08 Pyro 2nd BC Juvenile (Mth)’07 Notional 1st San Rafael (SA)’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Peninsula Diamond Jo (EvD)

INSIDE THE RISEN STAR STAKES: Gulfstream Park shippers are strong here, winning 4 of the last 6 and finishing third last year with Keen Ice. Todd Pletcher trainees own 3 of those wins, though he was noticeably absent from this race in 2015. It’s very notable that the last horse to win the Risen Star while rising in class from a Fair Grounds maiden or allowance was Gradepoint in ’04.

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MINE THAT BIRD DERBY

February 20, 2016

Derby points: none

KEY INGREDIENTS: The former Borderland Derby is the only major local route prep for the rich Sunland Park Derby. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the Mine That Bird Derby gives hopefuls a chance to acclimate to the extreme altitude and dust conditions at Sunland Park that can be troublesome for some shippers.

But without graded status or Kentucky Derby qualifying points, as well as competition in the region from the same-day Risen Star, a second-tier field is expected.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dominant Sunland Park maiden winner Where’s The Moon (pictured) wheeled back on 8 days’ rest and struck while the iron was hot. The ex-west coaster upset

1-5 favorite Cinco Charlie from the Steve Asmussen barn and would go on to be runner-up in the G3 Sunland Park Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: It almost begins and ends with Mine That Bird, who was 2nd to Scorewithcater in the 2009 edition when named the Borderland Derby. The 2005 renewal produced a Belmont Stakes starter, as well as eventual BC Sprint winner Thor’s Echo for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Ky Derby: Mine That Bird (1st, ’09).

Preakness: Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belmont: Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’15 Where’s the Moon E. Gomez Dominguez 94’14 Proceed Juarez Marr 98’13 Dry Summer Madeira Marr 87’12 Isn’t He Clever Medellin Dominguez 91’11 Fusa Code J. Shepherd Asmussen 88’10 Storming Saint Contreras Dominguez 85’09 Scorewithcater M. Baze O’Neill 88’08 Poni Colada Juarez Asmussen 92’07 Takedown Murphy Asmussen 85’06 Indy Wildcat M. Baze Capestro 90

Winning Preps for Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners ’15 Where’s the Moon 1st Maiden (Sun)’14 Proceed 1st Red Hedeman Mile (Sun) ’13 Dry Summer 1st Allowance (Sun)’12 Isn’t He Clever 4th Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’11 Fusa Code 3rd Maiden (SA)’10 Storming Saint 3rd Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) ’09 Scorewithcater 1st Allowance (SA)’08 Poni Colada 6th Smarty Jones (OP)’07 Takedown 1st Allowance (Sun)’06 Indy Wildcat 3rd Maiden (SA)

INSIDE THE MINE THAT BIRD DERBY:Horses relocated from the major national circuits have fared well in this race once acclimated with local conditioners, including ’15 winner Where’s The Moon (via Peter Miller), ’14 runner-up Rebranded (via Todd Pletcher) from New York and ’13 winner Dry Summer from California (via Jeff Mullins). Field size has been an issue in recent years with 6-8 starters in each of the last 4 editions. No Mine That Bird / Borderland Derby winner has gone on to win the Sunland Derby to date.

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FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES

February 27, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: What happens when a mid-season prep gets almost as strong as the race into which it is supposed to lead? That’s the tricky balance for the Fountain of Youth Stakes as it pertains to the Florida Derby. Few of major repute at this stage of the spring are shipping out of Gulfstream looking for easier spots and points. Add in the hefty amount of annual maiden and allowance dazzlers at the meet. It’s reasonable to look at the fields for the FoY and Florida Derby in recent years and argue that the prep has been tougher. Plus, at 1-1/16 miles, you’re looking at a hot pace with distance question marks turning up the temps … not to mention the usual attrition of 3YOs hasn’t fully hit the crop at this juncture. With few exceptions, this lately has become one of those ‘win the battle, but lose the war’ kind of races in the big picture.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Upstart, favored at 4-5, was DQ’d to second in a debatable decision that put Itsaknockout up for his 3rd straight win at the meet. Luis Saez (pictured) piloted his 2nd straight FoY winner. The top 4 finishers all would go on to the Kentucky Derby and Frosted would become a back-to-back FoY alum to run 2nd in the Belmont Stakes.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Six FoY alumni have won the Derby since 1980. Since 2010, consider these Triple Crown highlights:

Ky Derby: Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd ’10).

Preakness: Shackleford (1st, ’11).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Medal Count (3rd, ’14), Orb (3rd, ’13), Union Rags, (1st, ’12).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Itsaknockout L. Saez Pletcher 91’14 Wildcat Red L. Saez Garoffalo 100’13 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 102 ’12 Union Rags Leparoux Matz 103’11 Soldat A. Garcia McLaughlin 104’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 103’09 Quality Road Velazquez Pletcher 110’08 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux Zito 100’07 Scat Daddy Velazquez Pletcher 101’06 First Samurai Prado Brothers 102

Winning Preps for Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners ’15 Itsaknockout 1st Allowance (GP)’14 Wildcat Red 1st Hutcheson (GP)’13 Orb 1st Allowance (GP)’12 Union Rags 2nd BC Juvenile (CD)’11 Soldat 1st Allowance (GP)’10 Eskendereya 1st Allowance (GP)’09 Quality Road 2nd Allowance (GP)’08 Cool Coal Man 1st Allowance (GP)’07 Scat Daddy 3rd Holy Bull (GP)’06 First Samurai 2nd Hutcheson (GP)

INSIDE THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES:

6 of the last 8 Fountain of Youth winners rose in class from the local Gulfstream meet’s allowance ranks. In fact, 9 of the last 10 winners exited a top 3 finish already at the meet. With a short run to the first turn and sixteenth pole finish line employed, you don’t want to be far behind at Gulfstream Park over its 9-furlong oval in this race configuration. Historically, FoY winners have been forwardly placed most often.

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TAMPA BAY DERBYMarch 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: As the profile of Tampa Bay Downs racing has risen over the past decade, so has its signature race, the Tampa Bay Derby. One of the chief reasons for the TB Derby ascension was that cross-state Gulfstream Park did not run 1-1/16 miles races in the mid-2000s after its track reconfiguration. This forced horsemen who did not want contest the Fountain of Youth at what was then 9 furlongs to seek another spot. Enter, the Tampa Bay Derby, which lured horses like Sun King, Bluegrass Cat, eventual Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and 2YO champion War Pass.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Carpe Diem made his 3YO debut a success, winning this race by 5 lengths as the even-money chalk.

Among those behind him were Danzig Moon and Divining Rod.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: You have to look at this race from 2010-present because of the drain the Fountain of Youth puts on it since moving back to 1-1/16 miles:

Ky Derby: Danzig Moon (5th, ’15), Carpe Diem (10th, ’15), Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Verrazano (14th, ’13), Java’s War (13th, ’13), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Watch Me Go (18th, ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10).

Preakness: Divining Rod (3rd, ’15), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15) Ring Weekend (5th, ’14), Cozzetti (7th, ’12), Super Saver (8th, ’10), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10).

Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 96’14 Ring Weekend Centeno Motion 97’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100’12 Prospective Contreras Casse 95’11 Watch Me Go L. Garcia O’Connell 95’10 Odysseus Maragh Albertrani 100’09 Musket Man Centeno Ryan 93’08 Big Truck Coa Tagg 99’07 Street Sense Borel Nafzger 105’06 Deputy Glitters Lezcano Albertrani 106

Winning Preps for Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners ’15 Carpe Diem 2nd BC Juvenile (SA)’14 Ring Weekend 1st Maiden (GP)’13 Verrazano 1st Allowance (GP)’12 Prospective 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’11 Watch Me Go 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’10 Odysseus 1st Allowance (Tam)’09 Musket Man 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’08 Big Truck 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’07 Street Sense 1st BC Juvenile (CD)’06 Deputy Glitters 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam)

INSIDE THE TAMPA BAY DERBY:The last 4 Tampa Bay Derby winners (and 12 of the last 14) were horses winter-based on Florida’s Atlantic coastline – several of whom traveled to TBD prior for a prep. Only 1 horse has swept the local Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby (Burning Roma in 2001). While Todd Pletcher has won this race twice in the last 3 years, he had lost with 5 beaten favorites since 2006. The last TB Derby winner exiting an off-the-board final prep finish was Pineaff in 1999. Most all ran 1-2 most recently before scoring.

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SAN FELIPE STAKES March 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The San Felipe bridges the Bob Lewis Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, sitting 5 weeks after the former and 4 weeks before the latter. Typically the San Felipe comes up too tough of a race for horses behind the eight ball on timing and trying to make their first start of the year. It’s an annual mix of stakes re-matches as well as class risers from the allowance and maiden ranks at 1-1/16 miles.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 4-5 favorite Dortmund (pictured) led every step in defeating eventual Ky Derby performers Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho et al. It was Baffert’s first San Felipe since ’09 and Dortmund would go on to add the Santa Anita Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: What a great history past/present from Affirmed and Sunday Silence, to Bodemeister and California Chrome. Highlights since ‘00 include:

Ky Derby: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st, ’00), Giacomo (1st, ’05), Pioneerof The Nile (2nd, ’09), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Dortmund (3rd, ’15).

Preakness: Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd, ’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Giacomo (3rd, ’05), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14).

Belmont: Commendable (1st, ’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Medaglia d’Oro (2nd, ’02).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 102’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 102’13 Hear the Ghost Nakatani Hollendorfer 99 ’12 Creative Cause Rosario Harrington 102 ’11 Premier Pegasus A.Quinonez Cho 100 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 93 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 92 (s) ’08 Georgie Boy M. Baze Walsh 95 (s) ’07 Cobalt Blue Espinoza O’Neill 98 ’06 A.P. Warrior Nakatani Shirreffs 101

Winning Preps for Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners ’15 Dortmund 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st California Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Hear the Ghost 2nd San Pedro (SA)’12 Creative Cause 3rd San Vicente (SA)’11 Premier Pegasus 1st Hollywood Prevue (Hol) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Vicente (SA)’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’08 Georgie Boy 1st San Vicente (SA)’07 Cobalt Blue 1st Allowance (SA)’06 A.P. Warrior 1st El Camino Real Derby (BM)

INSIDE THE SAN FELIPE STAKES:Eight straight San Felipe winners exited Top 3 finishes in stakes races, the vast majority of those coming off of victories. This shows that proven commodities are what you seek in a San Felipe contender. Don’t be afraid of a stretch-out sprinter, though, as 4 consecutive winners from 2010-’13 handled the extra ground. The last 8 times Bob Baffert has had a San Felipe starter, he’s had 2 wins and 6 runner-ups dating back to Roman Ruler’s flop in 2005 when last.

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GOTHAM STAKES March 12, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The Jerome-Withers-Gotham-Wood path for the New York sophomore scene has been in play now for 3 seasons. It’s reasonable to ask if there truly are enough quality horses on the circuit to have 4 major preps along the way. The Gulfstream alumni from the Fountain of Youth don’t have enough time to recoup for the Gotham, and those rising players in Florida have a shorter trip to the Tampa Bay Derby to consider. For much of its history, the Gotham was a 1-turn mile in late March, but it no longer must serve as a sole Wood Memorial provider … and doesn’t have any unique quality about it around 2 turns.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 6-5 favorite El Kabeir (pictured) rallied for a cozy score over a field that lacked any significant Florida shippers of repute. Only 5th-place

finisher Tencendur would go on to make an appearance in the TC.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Red Bullet and Easy Goer are the only Gotham winners to post scores in the Triple Crown since Secretariat. Alumni since 2010 in TC:

Ky Derby: Tencendur (17th, ’15), Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’14), Vyjack (18th, ’13), Overanalyze (11th, ’13), Hansen (9th, ’12), Done Talking (14th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (12th, ’11), Awesome Act (19th, ’10).

Preakness: Tiger Walk (8th, ’12), Pretension (11th, ’12), Norman Asbjornson (11th, ’11), Yawanna Twist (4th, ’10).

Belmont: Samraat (6th, ’14), Vyjack (8th, ’13), Overanalyze (7th, ’13), My Adonis (8th, ’12), Stay Thirsty (2nd, ’11).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Terranova 95’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99’13 Vyjack Rosario R. Rodriguez 99’12 Hansen Dominguez Maker 105’11 Stay Thirsty Dominguez Pletcher 95’10 Awesome Act Leparoux Noseda 102’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 113’08 Visionaire Lezcano Matz 100’07 Cowtown Cat Dominguez Pletcher 96’06 Like Now Jara McLaughlin 108

Winning Preps for Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners ’15 El Kabeir 2nd Withers (Aqu)’14 Samraat 1st Withers (Aqu)’13 Vyjack 1st Jerome (Aqu)’12 Hansen 2nd Holy Bull (GP)’11 Stay Thirsty 5th BC Juvenile (CD)’10 Awesome Act 4th BC Juvenile Turf (SA) ’09 I Want Revenge 3rd Lewis Memorial (SA) ’08 Visionaire 3rd Risen Star (FG)’07 Cowtown Cat 3rd Swale (GP)’06 Like Now 1st Capossela (Aqu)

INSIDE THE GOTHAM STAKES:3 straight winners from the local winter program have scored since the Aqueduct 3YO stakes schedule changed – significant when you consider that 5 straight Gotham winners prior were from out of town. The rise of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Southwest at Oaklawn as middle-distance alternatives also has impacted the quality and quantity of potential shippers.

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REBEL STAKES March 19, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Arguably the most impactful prep of the spring the past decade, check out a winner’s roll featuring American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge, The Factor and Secret Circle. Its field primarily comes from the Southwest Stakes, local ALW/MSWs and Californians. Rebel alumni have 4 weeks until the Arkansas Derby, 7 weeks before the Kentucky Derby and 9 weeks before the Preakness – the latter a race in which they’ve produced 6 Preakness winners since ‘04.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: American Pharoah rolled in his seasonal return from a layoff and injury to give Bob Baffert (pictured) his 5th Rebel win in 6 years. He wired the field by 6-1/4 lengths as the 2-5 chalk over Madefromlucky.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Rebel alumni have been strong in all Triple Crown races since ‘04, but have been exceptional on Preakness Day. Consider highlighted placings:

Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Curlin (3rd, ’07), American Pharoah (1st, ’15).

Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st, ’04), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (1st, ’07), Lookin At Lucky (1st, ’10), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14), American Pharoah (1st ’15).

Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Oxbow (2nd, ’13), American Pharoah (1st, ’15).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 99’14 Hoppertunity Smith Baffert 99’13 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 101’12 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 97’11 The Factor Garcia Baffert 106’10 Lookin At Lucky Gomez Baffert 102’09 Win Willy Berry M. Robertson 104’08 Sierra Sunset Emigh Bonde 103’07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 101’06 Lawyer Ron McKee Holthus 98

Winning Preps for Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners ’15 American Pharoah 1st FrontRunner (SA)’14 Hoppertunity 4th Risen Star (FG)’13 Will Take Charge 6th Southwest (OP)’12 Secret Circle 1st Southwest (OP)’11 The Factor 1st San Vicente (SA)’10 Lookin At Lucky 1st Cash Call Futurity (Hol) ’09 Win Willy 1st Allowance (OP)’08 Sierra Sunset 2nd Southwest (OP)’07 Curlin 1st Maiden (GP)’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Southwest (OP)

INSIDE THE REBEL STAKES:Six straight Rebel winners have gone on to add major G1 stakes victories, including a Triple Crown sweep, 1-2 finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and victories in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. 7 of the last 10 Rebel winners exited victories in their most-recent prep, while 12 straight were based/trained either at Oaklawn or in California.

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SUNLAND DERBY March 20, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: New Mexico’s only Kentucky Derby qualifying prep, the Sunland Derby has been a favorite stop for west coast horsemen traveling east since its 2003 debut. Names like Baffert, O’Neill, Bonde, Machowsky and Callaghan have made successful raids from California. It’s offered at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, over a very fast racing surface that can fool speed-figure players and those following the stopwatch.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Overwhelming 1-5 favorite Firing Line (pictured) shipped from the west coast to destroy 6 overmatched rivals by 14+ lengths. He took control of a fast pace duel and drew away while never in danger. None of his opponents continued on to the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: In just 12 years, the Sunland Derby has 2 TC race winners – Mine That Bird and Ruler On Ice, not to mention a pair of runner-ups in the last 2 years – Firing Line ’15 Derby and Commissioner ’14 Belmont. Its alumni in the TC all-time:

Ky Derby: Firing Line (2nd, ’15), Chitu (9th, ’14), Daddy Nose best (10th, ’12), Twice the Appeal (10th, ’11), Conveyance (‘15th, ’10), Mine That Bird (1st, ’09), Advice (13th, ’09), Sort It Out (17th, ’05).

Preakness: Firing Line (7th, ’15), Govenor Charlie (8th, ’13), Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12), Astrology (3rd, ’11), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belmont: Commissioner (2nd, ’14) Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Firing Line Stevens Callaghan 101’14 Chitu Garcia Baffert 103’13 Govenor Charlie Garcia Baffert 99’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 101’11 Twice the Appeal Reyes Bonde 95’10 Endorsement Albarado Ritter 99’09 Kelly Leak Smith Machowsky 92’08 Liberty Bull G.Melancon Amoss 91’07 Song of Navarone Espinoza Dominguez 104’06 Wanna Runner Espinoza Baffert 99

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners ’15 Firing Line 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) ’14 Chitu 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) ’13 Govenor Charlie 1st Maiden (SA)’12 Daddy Nose Best 1st El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’11 Twice the Appeal 4th Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) ’10 Endorsement 1st Maiden (OP)’09 Kelly Leak 1st Allowance (SA)’08 Liberty Bull 3rd Southwest (OP)’07 Song of Navarone 3rd Sham (SA)’06 Wanna Runner 5th El Camino Real Derby (BM)

INSIDE THE SUNLAND DERBY:

Horses who wintered in California have won 6 of the last 7 editions of this race, including the last 5 in a row. Look for runners in solid form with 6 of the last 7 victors exiting a Top 2 prep finish, and 7 of the last 10 winners coming out of stakes efforts. Henry Dominguez is the only locally based horseman to win the Sunland Derby in the past decade. Those tuning up in the local Mine That Bird Derby have struggled to handle the shippers.

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LOUISIANA DERBY March 26, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The Louisiana Derby can make a case as one of America’s fastest-growing Triple Crown preps. It’s history is long and rich, but in the past 6 years since being pushed later on the calendar as a final prep and extended to 1-1/8 miles, it’s seen a renaissance.

The taxing Fair Grounds stretch of 1,346 feet actually is more than 111 feet longer than Churchill Downs, providing a realistic dress rehearsal. The Louisiana Derby gets its field from the Lecomte and Risen Star locally as well as shippers from Florida who often are being separated from other stablemates in that region.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: International Star notched the first Lecomte-Risen Star-Louisiana

Derby sweep since Friesan Fire in ’09 and only the 4th ever to do so. In his wake were a trio of eventual Kentucky Derby starters – Keen Ice, War Story and Mr. Z.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since changing its date and distance in 2010, the La Derby has taken off in terms of production. At least 1 alumnus has hit a TC race trifecta each year except ’12.

Ky Derby: Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13), Nehro (2nd, 11), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness: Mylute (3rd, ’13).

Belmont: Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Drosselmeyer (1st, ’10), Fly Down (2nd, ’10).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 International Star Mena Maker 99’14 Vicar’s in Trouble Napravnik Maker 104’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 105’12 Hero of Order Martin Dorochenko 95’11 Pants On Fire Napravnik Breen 97’10 Mission Impazible Maragh Pletcher 97’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 103’08 Pyro Bridgmohan Asmussen 100’07 Circular Quay Velazquez Pletcher 105’05 High Limit Dominguez Frankel 106

Winning Preps for Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners ’15 International Star 1st Risen Star (FG)’14 Vicar’s in Trouble 3rd Risen Star (FG)’13 Revolutionary 1st Withers (Aqu)’12 Hero of Order 4th Black Gold (FG)’11 Pants On Fire 6th Risen Star (FG)’10 Mission Impazible 3rd Southwest (OP)’09 Friesan Fire 1st Risen Star (FG)’08 Pyro 1st Risen Star (FG)’07 Circular Quay 5th Risen Star (FG)’05 High Limit 1st Allowance (Del)

INSIDE THE LOUISIANA DERBY:9 straight La Derby winners exited stakes bids, while 6 of the last 9 competed in the Risen Star on the local path. In the 6 years since moving the date and distance, Todd Pletcher trainees own 2 wins and 2 seconds, including Intense Holiday and Stanford as the last 2 runner-ups. The Louisiana Derby pacesetter has finished first and second the past 2 years.

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FLORIDA DERBY April 2, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The eastern place to be on the Triple Crown trail, Gulfstream’s 3YO series spans from the first of the New Year through his prime real estate 5 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. Historically, only the Blue Grass (23) at Keeneland has produced more rose bearers all-time than the Florida Derby (22). The past decade has seen Barbaro, Big Brown and Orb make their way to Louisville via the Florida Derby.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: It was a Todd Pletcher encore as Materiality did exactly what stable-mate Constitution pulled off the year before – run his record to 3-for-3 lifetime by winning this race. Upstart, favored at 1-1, chased futily throughout in second.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The past 2 editions have been far off its historical norm over the past decade. While 3 of the top 4 finishers a year ago moved on to Louisville, they managed only 6th, 9th and 18th and didn’t impact any of the Triple Crown races. Consider that against these since 2006:

Ky Derby: Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08), Barbaro (1st, ’06).

Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Shackleford (1st, ’11), First Dude (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08).

Belmont: Orb (3rd, ’13), Union Rags (1st, ’12), First Dude (3rd, ’10), Dunkirk (2nd, ’09), Da’Tara (1st, ’08), Sunriver (3rd, ’06).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Florida Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Materiality Velazquez Pletcher 105’14 Constitution Castellano Pletcher 97’13 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 97’12 Take Charge Indy Borel Byrne 104’11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 101’10 Ice Box Lezcano Zito 101’09 Quality Road Velazquez J. Jerkens 103’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 110’07 Scat Daddy Prado Pletcher 101’06 Barbaro Prado Matz 104

Winning Preps for Last 10 Florida Derby Winners

’15 Materiality 1st Overnight stakes (GP) ’14 Constitution 1st Allowance (GP)’13 Orb 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) ’12 Take Charge Indy 2nd Allowance (GP)’11 Dialed In 2nd Allowance (GP)’10 Ice Box 5th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’09 Quality Road 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) ’08 Big Brown 1st Allowance (GP)’07 Scat Daddy 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) ’06 Barbaro 1st Holy Bull (GP)

INSIDE THE FLORIDA DERBY: Since Empire Maker shipped east to win this race in 2003, locally based horses have dominated the Florida Derby. Don’t look for big rebounds here – it’s about the ‘now’ horse with 9 of the last 10 winners coming off 1st or 2nd-place finishes. Also, don’t be afraid of a hot class riser. The last 9 editions of this race have been won by 5 class risers and 4 alumni of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Fields of 8-10 have been the norm of late.

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SPIRAL STAKES April 2, 2016

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The first race in Kentucky to offer Derby qualifying points in 2016, the Spiral has been moved this year to the first weekend in April and will go head-to-head with the Florida Derby in the slot 5 weeks out from the run for the roses. In recent years, the Spiral had been held 2 weeks earlier. Only the Spiral and El Camino Real Derby offer qualifying points for races held over synthetic surfaces. Since Keeneland’s move to dirt, the Spiral is the only key Polytrack prep.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dubai Sky notched his 4th straight win, adding to the grassy Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream, by scoring a 7-1 upset in what wound up his final start of the year for Bill Mott (pictured). None of his 10 rivals competed in the Triple Crown.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: From 1990-’93, the Spiral enjoyed its heyday with consecutive Triple Crown series race winners Summer Squall, Hansel, Lil E Tee & Prairie Bayou having ventured through Florence. But things went cold from ’94-’05, so let’s examine the highlights of the Poly era, ’06-present.

Ky Derby: Hard Spun (2nd, ‘07), Animal Kingdom (1st, ‘11), Went the Day Well (4th, ’12).

Preakness: Hemingway’s Key (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (3rd, ‘07), Macho Again (2nd, ’08), Animal Kingdom (2nd, ’08).

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ‘07).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Dubai Sky J. Lezcano Mott 103’14 We Miss Artie Velazquez Pletcher 93’13 Black Onyx Bravo Breen 96’12 Went the Day Well Velazquez Motion 103’11 Animal Kingdom Garcia Motion 97’10 Dean’s Kitten Velasquez Maker 101’09 Hold Me Back Desormeaux Mott 101’08 Adriano Prado Motion 101’07 Hard Spun Pino L. Jones 106’06 With a City Blanc Maker 101

Winning Preps for Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners ’15 Dubai Sky 1st Kitten’s Joy (GP)’14 We Miss Artie 8th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’13 Black Onyx 1st Allowance (GP)’12 Went the Day Well 1st Maiden (GP)’11 Animal Kingdom 2nd Allowance (GP)’10 Dean’s Kitten 2nd Palm Beach (GP)’09 Hold Me Back 5th Remsen (Aqu)’08 Adriano 9th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’07 Hard Spun 4th Southwest (OP)’06 With a City 8th John Battaglia Memorial (TP)

INSIDE THE SPIRAL STAKES:7 of the last 8 Spiral winners were horses who had raced on the turf at Gulfstream during the winter, including 6 straight. Meanwhile, 8 of the last 9 Spiral winners have been single-digit odds in a race with a longshot’s misnomer. Despite the move to Polytrack in 2006, the list of winning trainers in this race reads like a Who’s Who nationally with Graham Motion, Bill Mott and Mike Maker accounting for 7 of the 10 scores.

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SANTA ANITA DERBY

April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: A galvanizing series of local preps builds perfectly to the 1-1/8 miles Santa Anita Derby – where the west’s best most often play. An occasional shipper from Northern California may appear, but this race typically comes down to the alumni of the Bob Lewis Memorial and the San Felipe. In the last 5 years, trainers Doug O’Neill and Bob Baffert have horded 4 of the victories. Speed kills on the west coast and the SA Derby is most often won on or near the front.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dortmund (pictured) won his 6th straight race and added to his Los Al Futurity and San Felipe scores with a wire-to-wire performance as the 3-5 favorite. The west’s top rivals hit the road instead of facing off – American Pharoah (Oaklawn) and Firing Line (Sunland). Only 1

of Dortmund’s 5 rivals, Bolo, advanced to the TC.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since ’11 return to dirt, TC bids:

Ky Derby: Dortmund (3rd, ’15), Bolo (12th, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Goldencents (17th, ’13), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (5th, ’12), Liaison (6th, ’12), Midnight Interlude (16th, ’11), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11)

Preakness: Dortmund (4th, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Candy Boy (13th, ’14), Goldencents (5th, ’13), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), Midnight Interlude (3rd, ’11), Mr. Commons (8th, ’11)

Belmont: California Chrome (4th, ’14), Paynter (2nd, ’12)

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 106’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 106’13 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 106’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 98’11 Midnight Interlude Espinoza Baffert 98’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 99 (s)’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 95 (s)’08 Colonel John Nakatani Harty 98 (s)’07 Tiago Smith Shirreffs 100’06 Brother Derek Solis Hendricks 105

Winning Preps for Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners ’15 Dortmund 1st San Felipe (SA)’14 California Chrome 1st San Felipe (SA)’13 Goldencents 4th San Felipe (SA)’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Lewis Memorial (SA) ’11 Midnight Interlude 1st Maiden (SA)’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Felipe (SA)’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st San Felipe (SA)’08 Colonel John 1st Sham (SA)’07 Tiago 7th Lewis Memorial (SA) ’06 Brother Derek 1st Lewis Memorial/Santa Catalina (SA)

INSIDE THE SANTA ANITA DERBY:10 straight winners exited local SA preps, including 9 of the last 10 from local stakes bids. 5 of the last 7 winners tuned up in the San Felipe with 7 of the last 8 exiting winning prep races. 5 straight winners on dirt all raced within 2 lengths of the early lead. Tiago, Castledale and Buddy Gil are the only SA Derby dirt winners in the last 20 years to rally from more than 4 lengths back to score.

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WOOD MEMORIAL

April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: While Frosted, Wicked Strong and Normandy Invasion have knocked on the door the past 3 seasons, it’s astounding to think the Wood has not produced a Kentucky Derby Top 3 finisher since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran 1-2 in 2003. Sure, there’s been bad luck, too – namely injuries to Eskendereya and I Want Revenge. But it’s no coincidence that since the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby dates moved to become last-stop preps and not mid-season preps, the Wood has fallen from grandeur. The Wood shares the weekend with the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass as fixtures 4 weeks out from the first Saturday in May.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Favored Daredevil chased a slow pace and tired while Frosted

(pictured) charged home late to win by 2 lengths and underscore the Florida strength over the NY winter faction. Runner-up Tencendur also moved on to the Kentucky Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since the Florida Derby’s ’06 rise, the best the Wood has offered in the Triple Crown has been:

Ky Derby: Frosted (4th, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Normandy Invasion (4th, ’13), Tale of Ekati (4th, ’08).

Preakness: Social Inclusion (3rd, ’14), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belmont: Frosted (2nd, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Frosted Rosario McLaughlin 107’14 Wicked Strong Maragh J. Jerkens 103’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100’12 Gemologist Castellano Pletcher 104’11 Toby’s Corner Castro Motion 97’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 102’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 109’08 Tale Of Ekati Prado Tagg 100’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C. Velasquez Tagg 102’06 Bob And John Gomez Baffert 103

Winning Preps for Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners ’15 Frosted 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’14 Wicked Strong 4th Allowance (GP)’13 Verrazano 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’12 Gemologist 1st Allowance (GP)’11 Toby’s Corner 3rd Gotham (Aqu)’10 Eskendereya 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) ’09 I Want Revenge 1st Gotham (Aqu)’08 Tale Of Ekati 6th Louisiana Derby (FG) ’07 Nobiz Like Shobiz 3rd Fountain of Youth (GP) ’06 Bob And John 3rd San Felipe (SA)

INSIDE THE WOOD MEMORIAL:5 of the last 6 Wood winners shipped north from Florida to score, including 4 straight. Favorites have won 4 of the last 7. Entering off a win isn’t a must either, as 6 of the last 10 winners lost their prior starts. Todd Pletcher’s deep bench has won 3 of the last 6 Wood Memorial offerings via Florida. The Gotham Stakes has produced only 2 Wood winners in the past decade.

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BLUE GRASS STAKES

April 9, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Placed 4 weeks out from the Derby for the second straight year, the Blue Grass saw its return to dirt a year ago lure mixed reviews. It drew headliner Carpe Diem, but only 8 entries overall (this after averaging a whopping 11.5 in the Polytrack era). It lost some of its uniqueness in surface and timing, now sitting closer to established, mid-spring preps than before and up against national competition for horses that weekend. The Flordians who head north can choose equally between the Blue Grass and same-day Wood Memorial with an eye on the easiest spot.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Carpe Diem (pictured) returned to the scene of his signature 2YO score

and added a 3-length victory at 2-5 odds. Four runners would move on to the Kentucky Derby. Notably, the top 2 Blue Grass finishers exited the Tampa Bay Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Its alumni flopped in the ’15 Derby, finishing 5th, 10th, 11th and 14th. Here’s how the previous, 8-year Polytrack era highlights had fared:

Ky Derby: Street Sense (1st, ’07), Paddy O’Prado (3rd, ’10), Dullahan (3rd, ’12).

Preakness: Street Sense (2nd, ’07), First Dude (2nd, ’10).

Belmont: First Dude (3rd, ’10), Brilliant Speed (3rd, ’11), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Medal Count (3rd, ’14).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 102 (d)’14 Dance With Fate Nakatani Eurton 99’13 Java’s War Leparoux McPeek 96’12 Dullahan Desormeaux Romans 102’11 Brilliant Speed Rosario Albertrani 97’10 Stately Victor A. Garcia Maker 99’09 General Quarters Coa T. McCarthy 98’08 Monba Prado Pletcher 97’07 Dominican Bejarano D. Miller 98’06 Sinister Minister Gomez Baffert 116 (d)

Winning Preps for Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners

’15 Carpe Diem 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Dance With Fate 2nd El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’13 Java’s War 2nd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’12 Dullahan 2nd Palm Beach (GP)’11 Brilliant Speed 2nd Hallandale Beach (GP) ’10 Stately Victor 5th Allowance (GP)’09 General Quarters 5th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’08 Monba 12th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’07 Dominican 1st Rushaway (TP)’06 Sinister Minister 2nd California Derby (GG)

INSIDE THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: It’s been a quarter-century since Strike the Gold swept the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby in 1991. And no Blue Grass winner has won any Triple Crown race since Prairie Bayou’s 1993 Preakness. Even so, a record 23 Blue Grass alumni have worn the roses in Louisville, the last of which was Street Sense in 2007. Tampa Bay Derby alumni have won 3 of the last 7 editions, including scores on both Polytrack and dirt. 7 of the last 8 winners wintered in Florida.

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FEDERICO TESIO STAKES

April 9, 2015

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Traditionally Pimlico’s spring prep to the Preakness, the Federico Tesio moves to Laurel Park this year and also moves up a few weeks on the calendar to a busy April 9 slot. That’s the day of the Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass. With no qualifying points to the Derby, this will be a spot for a late bloomer to perhaps look ahead to the Preakness or Belmont – ala Ruler On Ice in 2011, who would eventually win the Belmont Stakes. The Tesio also stretches out to 1-1/8 miles.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Five locals took on Kiaran McLaughlin’s well-bred NYRA shipper and 6-5 favorite All Hands in his stakes debut, but it was dueling Bodhisattva (pictured)

who proved best for Jose Corrales & Trevor McCarthy.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Preakness starters have been produced in back-to-back years after failing to do so between 2009-‘13. Of its last 13 editions, it’s offered a Belmont winner and 2 Preakness placings. Consider: Ky Derby : None.

Preakness: Bodhisattva (8th, ’15), Kid Cruz (8th, ’14), Icabad Crane (3rd, ’08), Xchanger (8th, ’07), Malibu Moonshine (8th, ’05), Water Cannon (10th, ’04), Cherokee’s Boy (8th, ’03), Magic Weisner (2nd, ’02).

Belmont: Matuszak (DNF, ’14), Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Miner’s Escape (10th, ’09), Icabad Crane (8th, ’08).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Bodhisattva McCarthy Corrales 95’14 Kid Cruz Pimentel L. Rice 90’13 Abstraction Goncalves D. Carroll 95’11 Concealed Identity Russell E. Gaudet 96’10 Bank The Eight Pino T. Dutrow 91’09 Miner’s Escape Garcia Zito 96’08 Icabad Crane Rose Motion 94’07 Xchanger Domingez Shuman 102’06 Ah Day Fogelsonger Leatherbury 108’05 Malibu Moonshine Hamilton Leatherbury 98

Winning Preps for Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners ’15 Bodhisattva 2nd Private Terms (Lrl)’14 Kid Cruz 1st Private Terms (Lrl)’13 Abstraction 1st Maiden (FG)’11 Concealed Identity 1st Allowance (Pim)’10 Bank The Eight 1st Allowance (Prx)’09 Miner’s Escape 1st Maiden (GP)’08 Icabad Crane 3rd Rushaway (TP)’07 Xchanger 7th Rebel (OP)’06 Ah Day 1st Allowance (Lrl)’05 Malibu Moonshine 1st Private Terms (Lrl)

INSIDE THE FEDERICO TESIO STAKES:The last locally based post-time favorite was Etude in 2007. Favorites have won the Tesio 5 times in the last 10 editions. The Tesio has been a successful stop for Parx-based runners who don’t have any stakes of note for 3-year-olds this time of year, and they’ve fared well here in recent years in limited engagements.

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The Maryland Jockey Club at

January 1 – February 15Racing Friday thru Monday

March 11 – May 8Racing Friday thru Sunday

Winter/SpringMeet

http://www.keenelandselect.com

ARKANSAS DERBY April 16, 2016

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Fourth race in Oaklawn’s series, it’s impossible to undervalue the $5M Centennial Season Bonus in ’04 captured by Smarty Jones and this race’s ascension. What’s become unique is that the Arkansas Derby is the only major prep 3 weeks in front of the Kentucky Derby in what used to be the busiest slot. Not only is that toughening horses for the Kentucky Derby, but 4 straight Preakness Top-2 finishes can’t be ignored when you think about wheeling back on short rest. Big fields, huge crowds and pre-race hub-bub serve as the trail’s most realistic dress rehearsal.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 1-9 shot American Pharoah left no doubt in an 8-length score while sitting second early and pouncing to his second straight raid of the meet after winning the Rebel.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The highlights since ’04 have been unparalleled, including ’15 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah:

Ky Derby: American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Danza (3rd, ’14), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Nehro (2nd ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10), Curlin (3rd, ’07), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Preakness: American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Ride On Curlin (2nd, ’14), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Curlin (1st, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Belmont: American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Summer Bird (1st, ’09), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Andromeda’s Hero (2nd, ’05), Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 102’14 Danza Bravo Pletcher 104’13 Overanalyze Bejarano Pletcher 96’12 Bodemeister Smith Baffert 105’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 99’10 Line of David Court Sadler 99’09 Papa Clem Bejarano G. Stute 100’08 Gayego Smith Lobo 101’07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 102’06 Lawyer Ron McKee Holthus 101

Winning Preps for Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners ’15 American Pharoah 1st Rebel (OP)’14 Danza 3rd Allowance (GP)’13 Overanalyze 5th Gotham (Aqu)’12 Bodemeister 2nd San Felipe (SA)’11 Archarcharch 3rd Rebel (OP)’10 Line of David 1st Allowance (SA)’09 Papa Clem 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’08 Gayego 2nd San Felipe (SA)’07 Curlin 1st Rebel (OP)’06 Lawyer Ron 1st Rebel (OP)

INSIDE THE ARKANSAS DERBY:You don’t get any more heavyweight on the trail than to say the last 4 winners have been split among Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher trainees. Baffert has trained the last 5 Arkansas Derby favorites – The Factor (7th), Bodemeister (1st), War Academy (DNF), Bayern (3rd) and American Pharoah (1st). Of the last 8 winners, only Archarcharch has truly been a locally based horse. Shippers have rebounded off losses with much success of late with 6 of the last 8 winners coming off of a defeat – 5 of those from out of town.

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ILLINOIS DERBYApril 16, 2016

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Despite the 2002 success of its winner War Emblem, the Illinois Derby has not been able to gain traction. Prior to then, it had been a Belmont Stakes lead-in held in late April and May. Recent history has been plagued by a lack of Kentucky Derby qualifying points since 2013. This makes horsemen with legitimate hopefuls opt for other spots, leaving the Illinois Derby to a potential late bloomer for the Preakness as its best-case scenario. The Illinois Derby often is contested on a very fast, speed-favoring track over 1 1/8 miles with a long stretch run at Hawthorne measuring 1,320 feet – longer than any of the TC venues.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: In just his second lifetime start, debut winner Whiskey Ticket (pictured) continued Bob Baffert’s

amazing spring nationwide in 2015. A fast pace set up a thrilling late run by the winner and nose runner-up Conquest Curlinate. None of the 8 starters would compete in the TC.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since repositioning on the calendar in ‘01, the Illinois Derby’s TC highlights have been limited. War Emblem made successful headlines in 2002, while Sweetnorthernsaint was the beaten Ky Derby favorite in ‘06. The highlights since ‘01:

Ky Derby: War Emblem (1st, ’02), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08), Musket Man (3rd, ’09).

Preakness: War Emblem (1st, ’02), Musket Man (3rd, ’09).

Belmont: Denis of Cork (2nd, ’08).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Whiskey Ticket M. Pedroza Baffert 93’14 Dynamic Impact Mena Casse 95’13 Departing B. Hernandez Stall 100’12 Done Talking Russell H. Smith 92’11 Joe Vann Geroux Pletcher 98’10 American Lion Flores Harty 101’09 Musket Man Coa Ryan 104’08 Recapturetheglory Baird Roussel 104’07 Cowtown Cat Jara Pletcher 106’06 Sweetnorthernsaint Desormeaux Trombetta 114

Winning Preps for Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners ’15 Whiskey Ticket 1st Maiden (SA)’14 Dynamic Impact 1st Maiden (OP)’13 Departing 3rd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’12 Done Talking 10th Gotham (Aqu)’11 Joe Vann 1st Allowance (Lrl)’10 American Lion 4th San Felipe (SA)’09 Musket Man 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’08 Recapturetheglory 3rd Allowance (FG)’07 Cowtown Cat 1st Gotham (Aqu)’06 Sweetnorthernsaint 3rd Gotham (Aqu)

INSIDE THE ILLINOIS DERBY:The last 5 editions have been won by horses who prepped on 5 different circuits – Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and Laurel. Mark Casse has a win (Dynamic Impact) and narrow second (Conquest Curlinate) in the past 2 years, as does Bob Baffert (Whiskey Ticket, Midnight Hawk). The Illinois Derby winners in 2013 & 2014 both went on to compete in the Preakness Stakes. Field sizes have shrunk in recent years with 14, 8 and 8 starters in the ‘no-points’ era.

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LEXINGTON STAKES

April 16, 2016

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Last year’s Lexington was moved a week earlier on the calendar and returned to dirt for the first time since 2006. While the 3-week window to the Kentucky Derby didn’t produce a runner in Louisville, it allowed 5 weeks to prepare for the Preakness. The Lexington is the last race that offers qualifying points, if necessary, for the Derby, though only 10-4-2-1 are up for grabs. At 1-1/16 miles note the truncated stretch run that uses the sixteenth-pole finish line.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Divining Rod (pictured) moved smartly around the turn and drew off to a 3-length win over 8-5 favorite Donworth as Florida shippers ran 1-2. The winner was

the only of the 7 entrants to move onto the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: After failing to produce a Triple Crown starter in its previous 3 years, the 2015 Lexington delivered a solid Preakness 3rd-place finisher in Divining Rod. Its TC-winning alumni of the past 30+ years include:

Ky Derby: Charismatic (’99, 1st), Swale (’84, 1st).

Preakness: Charismatic (’99, 1st), Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

Belmont: Touch Gold (’97, 1st), Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Divining Rod Leparoux Delacour 96 (d)’14 Mr. Speaker Lezcano McGaughey 99’13 Winning Cause Leparoux Pletcher 86’12 All Squared Away J. Garcia Ward 97’11 Derby Kitten Leparoux Maker 96’10 Exhi Albarado Pletcher 97’09 Advice Gomez Pletcher 93’08 Behindatthebar Flores Pletcher 99’07 Slew’s Tizzy Albarado Fox 94’06 Showing Up C. Velasquez Tagg 96 (d)

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners ’15 Divining Rod 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Mr. Speaker 2nd Palm Beach (GP)’13 Winning Cause 1st Allowance (Kee)’12 All Squared Away 6th Spiral (TP)’11 Derby Kitten 2nd Alligator Alley (GP)’10 Exhi 1st Rushaway (TP)’09 Advice 5th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’08 Behindatthebar 1st Allowance (SA)’07 Slew’s Tizzy 7th Louisiana Derby (FG) ’06 Showing Up 1st Allowance (GP)

INSIDE THE LEXINGTON STAKES:Only 1 of 29 races at 1-1/16 miles on dirt during Keeneland’s 2015 Spring Meet were won by horses stretching out from a sprint prep to a route. The average winner was 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, exactly where Divining Rod sat in his Lexington victory. While the Lexington was the only win in 2015 for Divining Rod, he would finish third in the Preakness, Ohio Derby and Indiana Derby – adding to his third in the Tampa Bay Derby.

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KENTUCKY DERBYMay 7, 2016

STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Every piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle offers a new challenge. Who will first handle 1-1/4 miles? Who can tote 126 pounds under top class conditions and distance? Who will keep the nerves in check in front of upwards of 170,000 screaming fans? Check off these boxes and you’re a long way to determining who may be draped in roses – granted, they get a clean trip and also are peaking May 7.

A lot will be made for horses who handle Churchill Downs’ surface and those who do not. A few points of caution: don’t overrate 2YO performance at Churchill in the Fall Meet with success in the Spring. The two surfaces are handled quite differently in terms of moisture content and the Fall surface is far more loose and cuppy than the Spring footing at Churchill that is sped up decidedly.

Also, don’t mistake good workouts over the Churchill surface in the weeks leading up to the Derby as a mulligan for prep performances. Many sharp workers without credentials have been false buzz over the decades. You want legitimate horses working well at Churchill and that gives them an extra feather in the handicapping cap. Horses working poorly can almost universally be dismissed.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Favored American Pharoah out-fought Firing Line and Dortmund as west coast-based horses went 1-2-3 and won for the third time in the last 4 years (California Chrome, I’ll Have Another the others). Jockey Victor Espinoza and trainer Bob Baffert boasted their 2nd Derby in tandem (War Emblem ’02), and it was a 3rd set of roses in Espinoza’s career and 4th for Baffert. A record crowd of 170,513 watched.

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 103’13 Orb Rosario McCaughey 111’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 108’11 Animal Kingdom Velazquez Motion 105’10 Super Saver Borel Pletcher 105’09 Mine That Bird Borel Woolley 110’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 111’07 Street Sense Borel Nafzger 108’06 Barbaro Prado Matz 109

Winning Preps for Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners ’15 American Pharoah 1st Arkansas Derby (OP) ’14 California Chrome 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) ’13 Orb 1st Florida Derby (GP)’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) ’11 Animal Kingdom 1st Spiral (TP)’10 Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby (OP) ’09 Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’08 Big Brown 1st Florida Derby (GP)’07 Street Sense 2nd Blue Grass (Kee)’06 Barbaro 1st Florida Derby (GP)

INSIDE THE KENTUCKY DERBY:Favorites have won 3 straight Kentucky Derbies for the first time since Secretariat, Cannonade and Foolish Pleasure in 1973-’75. Four straight chalks have not won the roses since 1893-’96! 5 straight Derby winners exited major prep victories from 4 different regions of the country Fla, Ark, Ky and Cal (2). No Derby winner has entered his 3YO season a maiden since Monarchos in ’01; and note 8 of the last 10 were stakes performers at age 2. The right horse can win the Derby no matter the trainer’s KD record.

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PETER PAN STAKES

May 14, 2016

STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The Peter Pan offers a local prep over ‘Big Sandy’ for Belmont Stakes hopefuls and middle-distance runners alike. It’s contested at 1-1/8 miles around 1 turn, so it lures a mix of late bloomers looking to the final jewel as well as those with some distance limitations.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: After chasing American Pharoah twice at Oaklawn and withdrawing from Kentucky Derby consideration in the final days leading up to the run for the roses, trainer Todd Pletcher pulled a minor 9-2 upset here with Madefromlucky vs. just 4 rivals. The win didn’t advance his profile for the Belmont Stakes, however, as Madefromlucky

managed only a 6th-place finish in his return bid vs. ‘Pharoah. Madefromlucky would go on to win the West Virginia Derby in August.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Tonalist in 2014 was the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since AP Indy in ’92 and first Peter Pan alumnus to win the carnations since Lemon Drop Kid in ’99. Since ’02, here are the best finishes of the Peter Pan alumni:

Belmont: Tonalist (1st, ’14), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Charitable Man (4th, ’09), Ready’s Echo (dh-3rd, ’09), Sunriver (3rd, ’06), Sunday Break (3rd, ’02).

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 Madefromlucky Castellano Pletcher 99’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 107’13 Freedom Child Saez Albertrani 105’12 Mark Valeski Napravnik L. Jones 102’11 Alternation Dominguez D. Von Hemel 103‘09 Charitable Man A. Garcia McLaughlin 103’08 Casino Drive Desormeaux Fujisawa 109’07 Sightseeing Prado McGaughey 99’06 Sunriver Bejarano Pletcher 103’05 Oratory Bailey Albertrani 114’04 Purge Velazquez Pletcher 110

Winning Preps for Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners ’15 Madefromlucky 4th Arkansas Derby (OP) ’14 Tonalist 2nd Allowance (GP)’13 Freedom Child 10th Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’12 Mark Valeski 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’11 Alternation 5th Arkansas Derby (OP) ‘09 Charitable Man 7th Blue Grass (Kee)’08 Casino Drive 1st Maiden (Kyoto/Japan) ’07 Sightseeing 2nd Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’06 Sunriver 3rd Florida Derby (GP)’05 Oratory 2nd Allowance (Aqu)

INSIDE THE PETER PAN STAKES:Arkansas Derby alumni have found the Peter Pan timing to their liking with precision strikes when they show up, including Purge, Alteration, runner-up Commissioner and last year’s winner Madefromlucky. It’s been a race for horses fairly close to the pace and formful finishes in recent years. Horses exiting the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne have become part of the mix in this race in recent years, including last year’s runner-up Conquest Curlinate.

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PREAKNESS STAKES

May 21, 2016

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The middle jewel of the Triple Crown remains the series’ truest test, evidenced by only 2 winners in the last century at 20-1 or more and an astounding 13 champion 3-year-olds from its list of winners in just the last 15 years.

Widely overblown by horseplayers, horsemen and the media is the 2-week turnaround between the Derby and Preakness. Since 1983, only 2 Preakness winners weren’t in action over Derby weekend.

You’re looking for a legitimate Derby winner to repeat his performance, or a troubled-trip horse from Louisville capable of turning the tables. That’s the gist of the handicapping process. Note that horses bet 5-2 or less favoritism in the Kentucky Derby

own an eye-popping 6: 5-1-0 record in the Preakness since 1990. Strong Derby favorites don’t miss the mark in the Preakness with a smaller field size and truer race.

The vast majority of Preakness winners the past decade have been near the pace with Curlin in 2007 the last to win from more than 5 lengths off the early pace.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: American Pharoah (pictured) became the third Derby winner in 4 years to add the Preakness when overcoming an epic deluge of rain in the moments leading up to the race. Victor Espinoza piloted back-to-back Derby/Preakness champs after California Chrome a year prior. Derby pursuers Firing Line and Dortmund both were shelved after disappointments.

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 105’13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas 112’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 109’11 Shackleford Castanon Romans 103’10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert 104’09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen 105’08 Big Brown Desormeaux R. Dutrow 101’07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen 113’06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani 114

Winning Preps for Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners ’15 American Pharoah 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’14 California Chrome 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’13 Oxbow 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’11 Shackleford 4th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’10 Lookin At Lucky 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD) ’08 Big Brown 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’07 Curlin 3rd Kentucky Derby (CD) ’06 Bernardini 1st Withers Stakes (Aqu)

INSIDE THE PREAKNESS STAKES:Trainer Bob Baffert is 4-for-4 in the Preakness when bringing the Derby winner (American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet, Silver Charm). Derby winners are 11-for-16 in the Preakness exacta since 2000, including 7 wins. 9 straight Preakness winners have come off 2-week layoffs (8 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks). Of the last 9 California-based Kentucky Derby winners, 7 have gone on to add the Preakness as well. Derby runner-ups haven’t won here since Prairie Bayou in 1993.

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BELMONT STAKES

June 11, 2016

STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: Order seems to be restored in the final jewel of the Triple Crown as recent winners American Pharoah, Tonalist and Palace Malice all have gone on to underscore their ability. The race produced flukish results for much of the 2000s over a 1-1/2 miles distance that simply stretches the modern Thoroughbred beyond their pedigree and training in most cases.

Despite its distance, the Belmont rarely falls to a deep closer. It’s a grinder’s race who can pound out the tempo over 12 furlongs, andfar more often won near the front than the back of the pack.

American Pharoah not only was the first Belmont winner to race in all 3 Triple Crown legs since Afleet Alex

in 2005, he was the first to even exit the Preakness on 3 weeks’ rest and do so since that same runner. The modern approach has been to run in the Derby, skip the Preakness, and take the 5-weekinterval to the Belmont Stakes.

It never hurts to have some racing experience over the expansive oval and ‘Big Sandy’ surface at Belmont Park … though top horses have proven it can be overcome.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: History was made in front of a sold-out audience (90,000) as American Pharoah rolled to a 5-1/2 length win and the Triple Crown. He led every step in 2:26.65, the 7th-fastest Belmont in history. In his wake was Frosted and eventual Travers champion Keen Ice.

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure)

’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 109

’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 108

’13 Palace Malice Smith Pletcher 100

’12 Union Rags Velazquez Matz 104

’11 Ruler On Ice Valdivia Breen 107

’10 Drosselmeyer Smith Mott 97

’09 Summer Bird Desormeaux Ice 105

’08 Da’Tara A. Garcia Zito 106

’07 Rags To Riches Velazquez Pletcher 106

’06 Jazil Jara McLaughlin 109

Winning Preps for Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners

’15 American Pharoah 1st Preakness (Pim)

’14 Tonalist 1st Peter Pan (Bel)

’13 Palace Malice 12th Kentucky Derby (CD)

’12 Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby (CD)

’11 Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Stakes (Pim)

’10 Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Stakes (Bel)

’09 Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby (CD)

’08 Da’Tara 2nd Barbaro Stakes (Pim)

’07 Rags To Riches 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD)

’06 Jazil 4th Kentucky Derby (CD)

INSIDE THE BELMONT STAKES:Only 3 of the last 10 Belmont winners exited prep victories, though 2 of

them have come in succession with Tonalist and American Pharoah. Tonalist

is the only Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since A.P. Indy in ’92. Only 8

Belmont winners since 1990 have competed in all 3 Triple Crown races. The

last 7 Derby winners to run in the Belmont Stakes have a 7: 1-0-2 record. 6

of the last 8 Belmont Stakes winners paid $20 or more for a $2 win ticket.

13 of the last 16 Belmont winners skipped the Preakness.

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