COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > 18.04.2006 slide 1 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport

slide 1 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport – the German case > Christian Varschen

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > 18.04.2006

Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight

transport – the German case



Content

Modular framework of the model

Qualitative shipper survey

Quantitative shipper survey



Micro/Macro models

Passenger transport: established micro models

Activity-based modelling

Individuals, households, activities, trips...

Freight transport: macro models



Why micro models?

Expectations

More behavioural realism

Evaluation of effects of new technical innovations

Forecast e.g. mode change, total amount of kilometres of different kinds of lorries

Derive environmental influences of traffic

Micro demand data are needed for

Micro traffic flow simulation

Traffic management evaluation

High spatial resolution



Simulation structure

Indicators

(Carriers)

Service Traffic

(Producers, distributors)

Shipments Trips Flows

Sy

nth

eti

c ec

on

om

ic s

tru

ctu

re

Logistic providers

Traffic flow simulation

Freight demand



Generating the synthetic economic structure

Generate firms

Existing aggregate data

Number of firms per location, type, size

Disaggregate to individual businesses

Spatial granularity determined by transport infrastructure

Use local data if available, e.g. land use data

Choose suppliers / customers

Based on aggregate trade flows, traffic flows



Data request

Necessity of data about behaviour of shippers

Not available from official statistic

Literature: references to influencing factors not representative

Decision: two-part survey

Qualitative survey

Quantitative survey



Qualitative survey (2004)

Objectives

Decision making processes in production firms

Preparation of the quantitative survey

12 interviews, one hour face-to-face

6 industries, 2 firm sizes

Main topics:

Involvement of transport issues in production decisions

Dynamics of production changes

Mode use and reasons



Quantitative survey (2005)

Objective:

Behaviour of shippers

Data collection for the model

907 firms, 128 logistic providers

All manufacturing industries, 4 firm sizes

30 minutes CATI

Main topics:

Supplier / customer structure

Relationship to shippers

Current transport demand

Transport requirements



Distribution of firmsin the survey

Spread all over Germany (representative survey)

Concentration on German industrial districts and big cities

Distribution of production firms and logistic providers

1 triangle = 1 shipper (n =128)

1 point = 1 production firm (n = 907)



Remarks

Following results only for production firms

Spatial patterns of supply

Modal Split

Outsourcing



Locations of suppliers

Locations of suppliers by region

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

micro small medium-sized large

size of enterprise (by EU SME definition)

pro

po

rtio

n o

f s

up

plie

rs

radius of 20-30 km

remaining federal state

remaining Germany

countries of EU-25

remaining Europe

remaining w orld

region

n=834w eighted, rounded



Locations of customers

Locations of customers by region

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

micro small medium-sized large

size of enterprise (by EU SME definition)

pro

po

rtio

n o

f c

us

tom

ers

radius of 20-30 km

remaining federal state

remaining Germany

countries of EU-25

remaining Europe

remaining w orld

region

n=837



Total revenue of production firms

Proportion of total revenue of German production firms by region (2005)

Germany 59.1%

EU-25 19.6%

remaining world 21.3%

Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany http://www.destatis.de



Modal Split for supply (by weight)

Enterprise Road Rail Inland waterways

Maritime transport

Air transport

Micro(n=69)

99.7 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %

Small(n=304)

96.1 % 0.9 % 0.2 % 1.6 % 1.5 %

Medium-sized(n=258)

95.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 2.4 % 2.0 %

Large(n=213)

90.5 % 3.2 % 0.8 % 3.7 % 1.9 %

Average(n=844)

94.6 % 1.2 % 0.4 % 2.2 % 1.6 %

Total average Germany 2004

75.2 % 8.4 % 6.4 % 7.3 % 0.07 %

Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, http://www.destatis.de



Modal Split for distribution (by weight)Enterprise Road Rail Inland

waterwaysMaritime transport

Air transport

Micro(n=68)

99.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 %

Small(n=316)

95.7 % 0.3 % 0.1 % 2.0 % 2.0 %

Medium-sized(n=260)

91.4 % 0.6 % 0.3 % 4.7 % 3.4 %

Large(n=215)

90.0 % 2.2 % 0.6 % 3.5 % 3.8 %

Average(n=860)

93.2 % 0.8 % 0.3 % 3.0 % 2.8 %

Total average Germany 2004

75.2 % 8.4 % 6.4 % 7.3 % 0.07 %

Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, http://www.destatis.de



(claim/demand: anytime worldwide

available for supply)

raw material (India)

Example: change in mode of transport due to reorganization (company for pharmaceutical products)

roadpackage / crawled raw materials(England)

production / packing(Germany)

waterways

customer(e. g. Asia)

airplane (from Hamburg or Frankfurt)

customer(GER/Europe)

ship (from Hamburg or Rotterdam) road

• change due to reorganization

cold store



Outsourcing to the world – last ten years

(multiple denomination possible)



Outsourcing to Europe – last ten years




Outsourcing to the world – anticipated




Outsourcing to Europe – anticipated




Status and outlook

Analysis of surveys is mainly processed

Simulation programming on-going

Simple type of module completed

Prototype application planned along macro model

Documents

COST Watch WG1 & WG2 Piräus meeting > 18.04.2006 slide 1 > Spatial patterns of supply in production firms in the context of modelling freight transport