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Cost Benefit Analyses for Cost-Benefit Analyses for Wreck Oil Removal Projects
Dagmar Schmidt Etkin, PhDEnvironmental Research Consulting
Basic Cost‐Benefit Analysisy
Value of averted costs and damagesValue of averted costs and damages
= Benefit of oil removal
If benefit > cost of oil removal operation,
Then oil removal operation has a NETThen, oil removal operation has a NET BENEFIT to the environment and to society
Calculating Benefit of Wreck Oil Removalg
• Determine hypothetical spill/release scenario(s)– Nature of event(s)
• Continuous chronic or episodic releases• Large release
– Oil/hazardous material type(s) and amount(s)
• Model trajectory, fate, and effects of release scenarios
• Estimate impacts and costs of release scenarios– Response and cleanup costs
Environmental damages– Environmental damages– Socioeconomic damages (e.g., fisheries, tourism)
Components of Averted Response Costs and Damages
• Monitoring of leaking or potentially leaking wreck
• Response and cleanup costs for leakage events– Shoreline cleanup
– Oversight
i l– Disposal
• Response and cleanup for potential large releases– On water response (mechanical dispersant)– On‐water response (mechanical, dispersant)
– Oversight
– Shoreline cleanup
– Disposal
Factors Affecting Potential Response Costs• LocationLocation
– Physical geography (shoreline type, water depth, sea state)– Political regime (response regulations – funding, dispersant policy )– Cultural/social regime (public involvement, “how clean is clean”, labor costs)– Proximity and nature of sensitive resources (habitats, shorelines) to protect– Proximity and type of response resources available
• Response type– Response strategy employed + timing (equipment personnel requirements)– Response strategy employed + timing (equipment, personnel requirements)– Effectiveness of on‐water response (mechanical, dispersant)– Endpoints in shoreline cleanup (“how clean is clean”)
• Oil‐ and hazmat (HNS)‐type( ) yp– Persistence– Toxicity– Human health impacts, chemical reactions/releasesV l d t f l• Volume and nature of release– Smaller volumes more expensive on per‐unit basis unless very small– Continuous vs. sudden, massive release– Oil spread, degree of shoreline impactp , g p
Factors Affecting Potential Environmental Damages• Resources at riskResources at risk
– Proximity– Types of habitats (wetlands, coral reefs, shoreline types)– Sensitive species (endangered or threatened species)p ( g p )
• Season– Migratory birds and other seasonal variations in populations– Seasonal variation in habitat sensitivity (nesting, life stages)y ( g, g )
• Oil‐ and hazmat (HNS)‐type– Persistence– Toxicityy– Human health impacts, chemical reactions/releases
• Volume and nature of release• Response actions and activitiesResponse actions and activities
– Impact from response itself (disturbance, chemical agents)– Effectiveness of response (oil off shoreline, out of sensitive areas)– Timeliness of responseTimeliness of response
Factors Affecting Potential Socioeconomic Damages• Resources at risk• Resources at risk
– Proximity– Types of resources (tourist beaches, fishing areas, cultural sites)
• Season• Season– Tourism and other resource use that may be seasonal– Commercial fishing and aquaculture
• Oil and hazmat (HNS) type• Oil‐ and hazmat (HNS)‐type– Persistence– Toxicity– Human health impacts chemical reactions/releases– Human health impacts, chemical reactions/releases
• Volume and nature of release• Response actions and activities
I t f it lf (di t b h i l t )– Impact from response itself (disturbance, chemical agents)– Effectiveness of response (oil off shoreline, out of sensitive areas)– Timeliness of response
Costs of Wreck Oil Removal Operationsp
• Spill response preparedness• Spill response, if needed (prepared, timely, on site)• Salvage equipment and personnel
M it i i t d l• Monitoring equipment and personnel• Logistical support
Factors Affecting Wreck Oil Removal Operation Costs
• Location– Water depth– Currents and sea state– Weather– Logistical support
• Vessel characteristics– Oil‐ and hazmat (HNS)‐type and content (munitions, human remains)– Vessel type and construction/configuration– Degree of corrosion
l ( h d )– Vessel orientation (upright, on side)– Vessel condition (broken, split, intact)– Other factors (presence of munitions, human remains, cultural artifacts)E i t i d d il bl• Equipment required and available
• Monitoring and oversight logistics required and available
Sunken Wreck
Oil orHazMat?
NO Leave inplaceHazMat? place
YES
Leaking orlikely to
leak?Monitor
NOOil/HazMatremoval op?
YESLeave in
place
NO
YESNOWreck Salvage op
to remove oil+ hazmat
Removalwithout
ill ? YESNO
Spill orleak?
Smallspillage?
YES
Large spillresponse
NO
COSTSMonitoring
Spill orleak?
NO
YESOil/HazMat Removal
spillage? YESNO
Salvageoperation+ oil spillcleanup
Salvageoperation only
Small spillresponse
NO
YES
Event withprobability
Decision and Consequence
Tree Moreleaks?
Leave inplace
NO
YES
COSTSSalvage opMonitoring
Oil/HazMat spillcleanup
Spill enviro damagesSpill socio damages
COSTSSalvage opMonitoring
Salvage?
NO
YES
probability
Decision
Tree
COSTSMonitoring
Oil/HazMat spillcleanup
Spill enviro damagesSpill socio damages
YESConsequences
Action
Start/EndPointSp soc o da ages Point
State‐of‐the‐Art Cost Analyses
•Trajectory, fate, effects modeling of hypothetical scenariosof hypothetical scenarios
•Data for simulating behavior of oil•Data for estimating costs/impacts•Planning for spill response contingencies and preparedness
•Cost models based on algorithms from data on previous spills
•Adapted to specific scenariosPREVAILING CONDITIONS
SELECTWATER
TEMPERATURE
5ºC
ON-WATER OILING CONDITIONS
SELECT SURFACEWATER TYPE
LARGE RIVEROPEN MARINE
SHORELINE CONDITIONSSELECT OILTYPE
SPECIFYSPILL AMOUNT
SELECTPREVAILING
WINDS
CALM - LIGHT 2 kts
MODERATE 15 kts
STRONG 25 kts
GALE 35 kts
FRESH
RAINBOW SHEEN
SILVER SHEEN
MOUSSE
FILM
SELECT SLICKTHICKNESS
CONTINUOUS
BROKEN
PATCHY
SPORADIC
SELECT SLICKCOVERAGE
SELECT SHORELINEOIL COVERAGE
CONTINUOUS
BROKEN
PATCHY
SPORADIC
FRESH OIL
MOUSSE
TARBALLSPATTIES
TAR STRANDS
SELECT SHORELINESURFACE OILING
SURFACERESIDUE
ASPHALTPAVEMENT
POOLED >1 cm
COVER >0.1-1 cm
COAT <0.1 cm
STAIN
FILM
SELECT SHORELINEOIL THICKNESS
SELECT SHORELINERESPONSE METHOD
SPECIFYRESPONSE
TIMING
sq. meters
SPECIFY SHORELINEAREA IMPACTED
sq. meters
PREDICTEDSHORELINE
AREAIMPACTED
OR
<3 MILES
3-10 MILES
10-50 MILES
NEARSHORE
10ºC
20ºC
30ºC
GASOLINE
JET FUEL
DIESEL
LT CRUDE
LUBE OIL
MED CRUDE
HVY CRUDE
#6 FUEL
IFO
SELECTDISTANCE TO
SHORE
SELECTON-WATER•Adapted to specific scenarios
•Local informationCONDITIONSRESPONSECRITERIA
SELECT WATER-BASEDSOCIOECONOMIC
RESOURCES
SMALL LAKE
SMALL STREAMOPEN FRESH
OPEN ESTUARY
WATERRESPONSECRITERIA
SHORELINERESPONSECRITERIA
SHORELINEOILING
CRITERIA
SELECT SHORELINE(ESI) TYPE
SHORELINE-BASEDSOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS
SHORELINE-BASED
NATURALRESOURCE
IMPACTS
SELECT"HOW CLEAN IS CLEAN"
ESTIMATED SHORELINE RESPONSEEFFECTIVENESS
SELECTSHORELINE-
BASED NATURALRESOURCES
SHORELINERESPONSE
IMPACT
SOCIOECONOMICRESOURCE
IMPACTS
% REMOVAL
ON-WATERRESPONSE
COST
NATURALRESOURCEDAMAGES(COSTS)
SOCIO-ECONOMICDAMAGES(COSTS)
S O S O
NATURAL RECOVERY
MANUAL
MECHANICAL
SORBENTS
SEDIMENT REWORK
VEGETATIONREMOVAL
BURN
FLOODING
LOW PRESSURECOLD WASH
HIGH PRESSURECOLD WASH
LOW PRESSURE HOTWASH
HIGH PRESSURE HOTWASH
STEAM CLEAN
SAND BLAST
CLEANING AGENTS
BIOREMEDIATION
HOURS
NONE
MECHANICAL
BURN
DISPERSANT
TOTALDAMAGES
OR
ESTIMATEDON-WATERRESPONSE
EFFECTIVENESS
% REMOVAL
SPECIFIEDON-WATERRESPONSE
EFFECTIVENESS% REMOVAL FISHERIES
PORTS
BOATING REC FISHING
WATER INTAKE
DRINK WATER
OTHER HIGH LOW USE
SELECT WATER-BASEDNATURAL RESOURCES
FISH
MAMMALS
OTHER HIGH LOW
BIRDS
CORAL REEF
BIRDS
MAMMALS
ENDANGEREDSPECIES
MODERATESENSITIVE
LOWSENSITIVE
HIGHLYSENSITIVE
SELECT SHORELINE-BASEDSOCIOECONOMIC RESOURCES
TOURIST BEACH
SPECIFYRESPONSE
EFFECTIVENESS
% REMOVAL
9: SHELTEREDTIDAL FLAT
10A: SALT/BRACK MARSH
10B: FRESH-WATER MARSH
10C: SWAMP
10D: MANGROVE
7: EXPOSED TIDALFLAT
6A: GRAVELBEACH
6B: RIPRAPSTRUCTURES
8B: SHELTEREDSOLID MANMADE
8A: SHELTEREDROCKY SHORE
1A: EXPOSEDROCKY
2: ROCKYPLATFORM
3: FINE SAND
4: COARSE SAND
5: MIXEDSAND/GRAVEL
RESIDENTIAL
WILDLIFE VIEWING HIGH VALUE
INDUSTRIAL MEDIUM VALUE
PORT LOW VALUE
MAXIMUM HIGH
MEDIUM
MINIMUMLOW
50+ MILES
SELECTPREVAILING
WIND DIRECTION
TO SHORE
OFFSHORE
WATER-BASEDSOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS
WATER-BASEDNATURAL
RESOURCE IMPACTS
NATURALRESOURCE
IMPACTS
ON WATERRESPONSEMETHOD
SHORELINE RESPONSE COST
TOTALRESPONSE
COST
[OIL DAMAGES WITHOUT RESPONSE] -
[OIL DAMAGES WITH RESPONSE + RESPONSEDAMAGES]
= BENEFIT OF RESPONSE
COMPARE RESPONSE COST:BENEFIT OF RESPONSE
OIL SPILL RESPONSE COSTEFFECTIVENESS ANALYTICAL
TOOL (OSRCEAT)OIL DAMAGES WITH
RESPONSE
RESPONSE BENEFIT
OIL DAMAGES WITHOUT RESPONSE
OIL DAMAGES MITIGATED
RESPONSEDAMAGE
OIL DAMAGES WITHRESPONSE
Benefits of Cost‐Benefit Approachpp
• Data for identification of wrecks of concern
• Data for identification of wrecks to “monitor”
• Data for prioritization of wrecks for removal
• Quantitative data for decision‐makers
• Preview of spill and removal scenarios for contingency planning
• Contingency planning for prioritized resources