COSMO WG4 Actvities

Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS

presentation by Andrea Montani

The rest of the activities have been absorbed into the advanced interpretation project

COSMO LEPS is run in time critical mode

Can be used operationally, as is done in Italy, Switzerland, Germany.

Disseminated to Hungary

3 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

Conclusions of verification on synop stations by André Walser

• For low precipitation threshold skill up to +126h

• Clearly lower skill for high thresholds

• High spatial variability

Impact of the Alps on COSMO-LEPS Forecasts for the

August 2005 Flood Event

Andre Walser1) and Cathy Hohenegger2)

1)MeteoSwiss2) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich

5 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

Heavy precipitation August 2005

© PLANAT, © BWG, © Luftwaffe

6 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

Observed precipitation

Probability precipitation > 100mm/72h

7 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

COSMO-LEPS vs. ECMWF EPS

8 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

COSMO-LEPS with and without Alps

With Alps Without Alps

Orography in the Alpine area set to 500 m if larger

9 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

Synoptic

With Alps Without Alps

10 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

COSMO-LEPS Forecast 19.8.2005

Probabilities for 72-h precipitation sum > 100 mm (20. 06 UTC – 23. 06 UTC).

With Alps Without Alps

11 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

12 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

13 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser

14 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations

Andre Walser